INFORMATION ITEMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-550-2-47-7
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 7, 2011
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: October 26, 1974
• Content Type: CABLE

r.1.4 - 144 L.el
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/08/15: LOC-HAK-550-2-47-7
NSA review completed
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WAS027$
00 WIE34
DE WTE #6328 2991710
0 2616201 OCT 74
PM THE SITUATION ROOM//TOHAK32//
TO GOMPERT/BREMER FOR THE SECRETARY
ZEM
T 0 P S E C E T SENSITIVE EXCLUSIVELY EYES ONLY CONTAINS CODEWORD
VIA BLACK PATCH WH42924
TOHAK32
OCTOBER 26, 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR SECRETARY KISSINGER
FROM: THE SITUATION ROOM
SUBJECT: INFORMATION ITEMS
SOVIET HARVEST RESULTS: THE PRELIMINARY OFFICIAL ESTIMATE OF
GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE USSR, RELEASED YESTERDAY, PLACES THE
SOVIET GRAIN HARVEST BETWEEN 190 MILLION AND 200 MILLION TONS.
THE 205.6-MILLION-TON TARGET MAY BE MISSED BY AS MUCH AS 15
MILLION TONS. THIS IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF PREVIOUS UNOFFICIAL
SOVIET ESTIMANS AND IN LINE WITH OUR ESTIMATES.
HINT OF TANAKA RESIGNATION: JAPANESE NEWSPAPERS TODAY INTER-
PRETED REMARKS BY A CLOSE FRIEND OF PRIME MINISTER TANAKA TO
MEAN TANAKA MAY RESIGN SHORTLY AFTER PRESIDENT FORD'S VISIT
TO JAPAN. THE FRIEND SAID HE THOUGHT TANAKA WANTED TO STAY
IN OFFICE "AT LEAST UNTIL" THE VISIT WAS COMPLETED.
SOUTH VIETNAMESE OFFSHORE OIL DISCOVERY: THE. SHELL OIL
COMPANY HAS REPORTEDLY DISCOVERED OIL AT AN UNIDENTIFIED
DRILLING SITE IN SOUTH VIETNAM'S OFFSHORE WATERS,. PRE-
LIMINARY TESTS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FLOW OF AT LEAST 1,000
BARRELS PER DAY OF HIGH-QUALITY, LOW-SULPHUR OIL. IF THE '
SITE PROVES OUT, IT WOULD TAKE AT LEAST THREE YEARS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE DISCOVERY, ALONG WITH DETECTION OF OIL-
BEARING ROCK AT SHELL'S FIRST DRILLING SITE LAST AUGUST,
IS EXPECTED TO SPUR FURTHER EXPLORATION IN THIS AREA. , THIS
IN TURN COULD ATTRACT OTHER FOREIGN INVESTORS, THEREBY BOL-
END OF PAGE 01
DOS Review Completed.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/08/15: LOC-HAK'-550-2-47-7
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/08/15: LOC-HAK-550-2-47-7
STERING THE COUNTRY'S DEPRESSED ECONOMY.
FRG'S TRADE SURPLUS LARGEST IN WEST: WEST GERMANY'S TRADE
SURPLUS IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF THIS YEAR CAME TO $5.7 BIL-
LION -- A SLIGHT DECLINE FROM THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS. THE
NINE-MONTH SURPLUS IS $18 BILLION, CXPARED WITH $16 BILLION
FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR OF 1973. THE RISE IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE
TO PRICE INCREASES FOR EXPORTS AND A LOWER VOLUME OF IMPORTS.
EXPORT VOLUME HAS STAGNATED IN RECENT MONTHS, BECAUSE OF DE-
TERIORATINGHRCONOMIC CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE INDUSTRIALIZED
SGRLD AND, IN PARTICULAR, THE SLUMP IN THE INTENATIONAL WEQ0-
MOBILE MARKET. IMPORT VOLUME HAS BEEN DEPRESSED ALL YEAR BUT
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE THIRD QUARTER. FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR,
THE TRADE SURPLUS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED $23 BILLION, THE LARGEST
IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED WEST.
POSSIBLE TROUBLE IN LIMA: THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OPEN BREAK
BETWEEN RADICAL AND MODERATE OFFICERS IN THE PERUVIAN GOVERN-
MENT IS INCREASING AS A RESULT OF PRESIDENT VELASCO'S EFFORTS
TO CHANGE MILITARY RETIREMENT PROCEDURES. THE PRESIDENT'S'
GOAL APPARENTLY IS TO ALLOW THE THREE SERVICE CHIEFS TO RE-
MAIN IN OFFICE AFTER THEIR MANDATORY RETIREMENT DATES. HE
MAY ALSO DELAY PROMOTIONS IN THE NAVY TO BLOCK THE ADVANCE-
MENT OF OFFICERS WHO ARE UNACCEPTABLE TO HIM. VELASCO'S
MOVES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CREATE SERIOUS UNREST AMONG SEN-
IOR AND MIDDLE-GRADE OFFICERS, WHO PLACE GREAT STOCK IN TRADI-
TIONAL RETIREMENT AND PROMOTION PROCEDURES. WHILE HE IS
CERTAINLY AWARE OF THE RISKS HE RUNS IN TRYING TO TAMPER
WITH THE MILITARY SENIORITY SYSTEM, HE HAS ACCELERATED THE
PACE OF HIS RADICAL REFORMS AND MAY NOW FEEL THAT DECISIVE
ACTION IS NECESSARY TO UNDERCUT THE MODERATES' POWER SO AS
TO ENSURE CONTINUATION OF THE SOCIALIST REVOLUTION.
AFRICAN COUNTRIES GETTING ARAB FUNDS: ARAB OIL-PRODUCING ,
COUNTRIES HAVE STARTED TO DISBURSE AID TO AFRICAN COUNTRIES.
AN ARAB FUND FOR AFRICA, WITH A CAPITAL OF $200 MILLION, WAS
SET UP IN JANUARY TO ASSIST AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN MEETING
HIGHER OIL COSTS. UGANDA, THE FIRST RECIPIENT, RECENTLY
RECEIVED A $5.65 MILLION CREDIT. TANZANIA AND LIBERIA HAVE
SIGNED AGREEMENTS ENABLING THEM TO BEGIN USING CREDITS FROM
THE FUNDS AN ARAB BANK FOR AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL DE-
VELOPMENT IN AFRICA, A COMPANION INSTITUTION WITH ABOUT THE
SAME CAPITALIZATION AS THE FUND, IS STILL BEING FORMED.
EVENTUALLY THE BANK WILL ADMINISTER THE FUND.
RESOLUTION TO EFIEL SOUTH AFRICA: THREE BLACK AFRICAN MEM-
BERS OF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL YESTERDAY FRMALLY SUBMITTED
A RESOLUTION CALLING ON THE UN TO EXPEL SOUTH AFRICA. THE
RESOLUTION -- SPONSORED BY KENYA, CAMEROON, AND MAURITANIA --
IS EXPECTED TO BE VIED ON NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT OhLY
END OF PAGE 02
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/08/15: LOC-HAK-550-2-47-7 emmomimmummim
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/08/15: LOC-HAK-550-2-47-7
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A VETO BY ONE OF THE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL
WILL PREVENT THE RESOLUTION FROM BEING ADOPTED.
UNTIL YESTERDAY, IT APPEARED THAT THE AFRICANS WOULD BE SATIS-
FIED IF THE SECURITY COUNCIL MERELY SUSPENDED SOUTH AFRICAN
MEMBERSHIP AND CALLED ON PRETORIA TO TAKE SPECIFIC STEPS TO
AMELIORATE APARTHEID. ON THURSDAY, SOUTH AFRICA'S AMBASSADOR
TO THE UN INFORMED A U.S. OFFICIAL THAT IF THE BLACK AFRICANS
REJECTED THE OFFER OF COOPERATION HE MADE IN HIS SPEECH TO THE
UN ? THERE WOULD BE A STRONG REACTION IN PRETORIA AND NO MOVE.-
MENT AT ALL TO END APARTHEID.
0953
/6328
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/08/15: LOC-HAK-550-2-47-7