MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 60 (AS OF 1630 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-5-14-7
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: October 20, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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: .CZNTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
? . 20 October 1973
TNTr.T.LTGRaOR.NMORANDUM
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OSD review completed w/referral DOS and release as redacted.i
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MIDDLE.EAST'
Situation Report Number 60
.(As of 1630 EDT)
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THE MILITARY 'SITUATION.
GENERAL:
? 1. A senior Israeli Defense Ministry official claims
that Israeli forces on the:west bank of the canal have
interdicted 611 highways and railroads leading from Cairo
to Ismailia and Suez, thus, isolating Egyptian forces,on.
the east bank. He stated that the Egyptian Army attempted
to set up.blOcking forces at key road intersections and ?
other strategic .points during the night, but that this
effort was ineffective. . The official claimed that the
Egyptians have only two armored brigades defending the
Cairo-Suez highway, which Tel Aviv views as a strong .
indicator .of the shallowness of Egyptian reserves.'
2. The .Israeli officer also claimed that thereA.0 ?
evidence that some Egyptian soldiers are fleeing the battle
front,.cspecially in the Port Said area. He said that
firing by Egyptian forces has been sporadic rather than
consistent, a sign that the Egyptians were losing their
will to fight. Despite those claims of success, the
Israelis indicated that the Israeli Defense Ministry.c20
siders the battle on the .wdst bank to be still in doubt.
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THE .SYRIAN
4. Both geound and air activity levels are low today
on the Syrian front. Israeli Defense Minister Dayan
admitted that he could not say that Syria's Army, .or
even a majority of it, has been. put out of action. He.
expressed concern both over the re-supply of equipment
to the Syrians by the? Soviets and the manpower contri-
butions to the Syrian front by other Arab states,
5. The Israelis anticipated another attack by '
the Jordanians today, but it apparently did not material-
ize. An Israeli military spokesman claims that the
Jordanians did not attack because of an error committed ?
by Syrian commanders yesterday. He stated that the .
Syrian Air Force sent Iraqi aircraft to support a
Jordanian attack, but had mistakenly directed, the air-
craft to fire'on the Jordanians. The Israeli official
also claimed that:Israeli missile boats shelled a
weapons assembly plantand a bridge along a main supply 25:0
route south of Tartus last night.
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'THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
8. A senior Israeli Military offidial gave an
optimistic briefing on the.progress or Israeli forces
en the west bank today. He claimed that the force,
which consists ofstwo armored and .one infantry brigades,
has interdicted all of the highways and railroads lead-
ing from Cairo to Ismailia .and Suez, thus isolating '
.Egyptian forces on the east bank. The infantry brigade
was reportedly holding the 'Israeli northern flank which
eXtends toward? Ismailia. One-? of? the armored brigades.
was stalled yesterday en route to Jabal al Jufrah,
about 30 miles east of Cairo, but shifted-its attack
to the north,today. The Israeli spokesman claimed
that this: brigade was successful in interdicting the
Cairo-Ismailia road, some 18 miles west of the canal.
9. AceOrding to the Israeli official the other
Israeli armored brigade also encountaired stiff fight-
ing yesterday from thl% Egyptian 4th Armored Division,
This division reported had been moved back to the West
bank from positions in the Sinai. By early afternoon,
howovor, the Israeli brigade had apparently overrun
the Egyptian.divitionts headquarters and had attacked
the headquarters of the Egyptian Third Army near Jabal
al Julrah. The Israelis are reported to have captured
several Egyptian generals in this action.
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.1a. The Israeli spokesman stated that the Egyptian
military concentrated during the night on seizing
strategic points where they eatablished antitank
defenses. He claimed, however, that faulty planning
and poor coordination had permitted the Israeli forces
to bypass many .of these obstacles. The Israelis now
believe that the Egyptians have only two armored brigadee
facing the Israeli brigade near Jabal al Jufrah. Egypta
ian forces reportedly have dismantled bridges .and cross-
? ings. north Of,Ismailia in order to deny this area to.
.Israeli. units.. Egyptian forces reportedly were also,
? firing sporadically today, an indication to Tel Aviv
that Egyptian units are becoMing disorganized and unable
to concentrate:their firepower on the rapidly moving
Israeli.units.'
11.4, The Israeli spokesman also noted Lhat since
early this afternoon, a large number of Egyptian vehicles'
along the southernmost part of the canal are now moving
from the east bank to .the west bank. He also reported
a large-scale movement of personnel away from the Port.'
Said area, a development which Tel Aviv sees as an indi-
cation that some Egyptian solders are fleeing the front.
The vehicle :movements in the.south probably are Egyptian
units moving back to attack the Israeli forces on the
? west bank, but the personnel movements near Port Said
.may be civilians attempting to escape the heavy bombing
there. The Israeli spokesman also claimed that the ?
Egyptian Soldiers are losing their will to fight.
12. The ?Israeli spokesman credits the west bank
? force with destroying many SA-2. and-SA-3 SAM sites.
He reported two Egyptian aircraft were downed by SAMs
fired by their own forces asthe aircraft attacked
Israeli bridges across the canal. A total of ten Egypt- .
ian planes reportedly were .destroyed by their own forces.
according te the Israelis. ;
. 13. Little reporting available from Cairo on
..'the situation. 'Egyptian war correspondents acknowledge
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that Tel Aviv is continuing to add fresh 'arMoredt
meohanikedt and artillery units to the battlefrOnt. ?
They also said the outcome of the battles now under
way in pinal and on the west bank would have a decisive'
effect on the war.
Israeli air activity continued into the late
afternoon along the front. Ait strikes wero detected'
near Port Said and Ismailiat and five Israeli hell-
copters7 werv noted flying from the large Israeli base
at Bir aifjafa to the Deversoir area . A flight of.
Egyptian MIG-21s attempted to engage Israeli fighters -
_near Port Said. morning. Two M/G-21s were downe;Li
in the engagement. . ?
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ISRAEWS POSITION ON A CAS-IRE
IS, Speaking on Israel's national radio today,
Defense Minister Moshe Dayan expressed a willingness to
discuss Arab ,proposals fora. cease-fire. Dayan's will-
ingness, h&ever, was tempered by a demand that Any
cease-fire proposals include one of two concepts: a
return by- both sides to the previous lines, or the
retention=by both sides of positions occupied at the
time of the cease-fire. Israel, according to Dayan,
could not accept a cease-fire predicated on the double
standard that "in Syria you withdraw and in Egypt you
stay where you are." .
19. :Dayan did not propose that Israel seek a
cease-fire, maintaining that "every day that passes
in this war is in our favor now." He did concede,
however, that Israel is not "in a position that it
can say it opposes a cease-!fire and wants au continual',
tion of the war." .
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20.
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;The press has interpreted Dayan 'a statements
as a sdggestion to Lgypt and Syria that they should
propose a=trUce before Israeli tanks move still closer
to their capitals. It may also be, however, that Dayan
thinks Cairo and Damascus are in no mood to call for
a cease-fire,-and thus feels free to put Israel on.
record.as.willing to cooperate in any moves toward
peace. -
Tereign Minister Abba Eban, who arrived in
Tel Aviv from New York today, maintained that Israel
must for the time being concentrate on winning, the
war. He added that "I don't see any prospect of a
cease-fire at the moment."'
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ISRAEL AND TUE. ATR WAR
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22. Israeli pilots have provided US military
officers With useful insights,into the effectiveness
of Egyptian and;Syrian air defenses. According to
the Israelis, surface-to-air missiles and antiaircraft
. artillery have been considerably. more effective than
Arab fighter' aircraft; ' ?
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23, The Israeli pilots claimed that the SA-6
. is the best air defense weapon in the Arab arsenal and
that it is extremely effective against fast moving
aircraft. They 'said that present Israeli electronic
countermeasures?and radar hom$J19 and warning equipment
are useless against the SA-6. .The only indication of
an SA-6 attack,?according to the Israelis, is a puff
of smoke on the:. ground during' launch. Once airborne,
. the missile's small size and low exhaust emissions
make it virtually impossible to see. If they should
detect a launch, Israeli pilots are instructed to put
their aircraft into a downward spiral. The pilots
said that they cannot outmaneuver the missile nor can
they fly below the effective altitude of the SA-6.
Several Israeli- al.rcratt have, been lest to the SA-6
at altitude of; 50 feet or less.
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24. Scime Of the Israeli pilots claim that most
' of their aircraft have been lost to antiaircraft
artillery because the SAM threat forces them to fl'y
low. They di:Le the ZSU-23-4,' a Soviet-made self-
propelled vehicle with a high rate of fire, as being
particularly effective. .
25. . Arab fighter threat seems to be of .
little Concern to the Israeiis.,.and one pilot claimed
innu-A'fni.ward to MIG encounters.
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#26. US military officers are impressed with ,the
Speed with Which new aircraft arriving from the US
?are put into combat.by the Israelis, In one caser
seven of eight of these aircraft were ready for combat
within two hours. Israeli pilots are reported to be
flying four to five sorties a day. According to the
US officers, the Israeli Air .Force only initiates ?
search and rescue operations for pilots downed over
Israeli. territory or. the Mediterranean, and not over
enemy or contested territory,.
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.IMPACT OF.SAUDI OIL CUTOFF TO THE UNITED STATES
27: Radio Riyadh announced today that Saudi
Arabia has decided to cut-off oil shipments to the
United States because of increased US aid to Israel.
Libya, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain have already announced
a total embarg0 on US oil shipments and other Arab
producers are almost certain .to follow.
28. ,Saudi Arabian oil exports to the US are
about 600,000 barrels per day (b/d)--3.5 percent of
US oil consumption. A total Arab embargo on US
oil shipments would amount to about 1.8 million bid
in October-ab6ut 10 percent ,of US oil consumption.
The Arab ell-producers may reduce production even
more than the 5 percent per*month'agreed upon last
Wednesday i4 an attempt to laevent Western oil com-
panies fromelrcumvonting the selective embargo by
shipping more non-Arab oil to the US and suppling
Other consumers with arab oil. In any event, the ?
companies are certain to ease the embargo somewhat
by switching supplies whenever possible.
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SOVIET AIRLIFT
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. . .
30. Turkey's Foreign Minister Bayulken told
Ambassador NacOmber today that his government has
agreed to allow more Soviet Overflights. 1though
Bayulken tried to hedge the issue of the exact
arrangement;s worked out with: the Soviets he did
?mention that at least 10 and :perhaps as many as 15
flights woUld be permitted' on 'a Done-shot" basis.
Ambassador NA,&caber, however., was not convinced that
.these figures Were equallr.uAderstood by .the Soviets..
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ANNEX ?I
Arab rirlangiu_21LSOviet Apm4
1. The New Vork Ti.M4s reported on 18 October:that,a
major oil producing country is Seeking to borrow money in
Europe to pay foe Soviet arms now being delivered to Arab
belligerents, and speculated that the Arabs are becoming .
hard pressed fOr cash... The story is not accurate. ,
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2. The report, which cit eS European banking circles
as a source, apparently was based on ahAbu Dhabi
cation to Morgan .Grendfell Merchant Bank in London for a'
$200 million lean, ostensibly for aid to other Arabs.
Unlike most other Arab. oil countries, who pay cash even .
for large capital investment projects, Abu Dhabi fre-
quently tries to borrow at lower interest rates than
they are receiving for their approximately $1 billion in
reserves.'
3. ciAle Soviet Union has received hard currency
payment for at least some arms supplied to belligerents
in the Middle.Zast.War but we do not know if they have
demanded hard currency payment for all such deliveries;
in any case, Arab countries have ample funds on hand for
this purpose. ? The total value of arms supplied to Egypt,
Syrievand Iraq after the 1967 war was somewhat less than
$3 billion. A similar sum could easily be met out of
Arab cash reserves of more than $10 billion and could be
replaced out of normal current income in less than a year.
Before the present war, Saudi Arabia, Libya and the Gulf
'states already had .committed about $2 billion to arms
purchases for .Egypt alone.
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4. The Arab financial situation could become tem-
porarily tight if. the USSR demanded repayment of old
debts-as well as cash for current deliberies as a sine
qua non of.arMs resupply. Thus far, however, therF9X
no evidence of such a request. :
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? 5. 4The contention in the New York Times that the USSR
has' demanded hard currency paymgin-TcW- aring-aelivered in
the past.- also is not entirely true: Neither Egypt nor
? Syria has repaid any of the military debt accumulated
since 1967. Some interest payments have been kept current
by both countries, but the transactions have been made
through their bilateral clearing acaounts rather than in
hard currency. Iraq has repaid principal as well as inter-
est, usually transferring hard currency. The hard currency
payments werevoluntary, however, rather than at the insig-
tenoe of the Soviet Union.
6. Most rumors that the USSR demanded hard currency
payment in the past for arms delivered to Arabs can be
traced to statements by Presidents Nasir and Sadat of
Egypt designed for the consumption of wealthy Arab bene-
factors. For number of years both Egyptian leaders told
Arab donors that funds were needed for arms, whereas
ample evidence exists that Arab transfers to Egypt were
spent on civilian goods. Exposure of this subterfuge, by
members of. the Libyan Revolutionary Command Council was the
main factor that inspired President Qadhafi to cut off
ad hoc transfers to EgYPt in mid-1972.
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