MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 57 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-5-12-9
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: October 19, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE. AGENCY
19 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE RM10111ANDUK
.'MUDDLE EAST
's .tuation Report Number 57
(as of, 2230 EDT)
TIDE MILITARY S TUAT ON
2. on the Syrian front, the Jordanians; repoa: t0
edly have +tade some progress against the Israeli'
salient as heavy fighting flared for the first time
.in several days,
City and south~,rest to. out the Cairo-Suez rail and
highway link are both stalled. Fighting has sub
?i.ded during .the night.
tai.n .the Israelis, and the.drives south toward Suss
and the issue still is not decided. The Egyptians
have gulled forces back from the east bank to con-
1 According. to a late evening briefing by.: an
Iaracl,i' military spolkesman, the offensive on the
west bank of the canal ha6 raet deterftired resistance,
EGYPTIAN FRO1
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3. Fighting intensified on the Egyptian front
today. The Israeli force on the west bank of the ?
Suez Canal apparently has not been able to maintain
the momentum of its advance. There are " no indica-
tions of an Israeli advance south of i:asfareet Air-
field, which they seized today. An Israeli military
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bank of the caraa
Ca he
east
's
tward Suez Ci,ty
Egyptian farces in the central sector on
spokesman claimed that the. Egyptians had pulled the remaining elements of their
car~tast~~therIsraea..i.s
-back ~.hrus?~
across the canal
,'tare of Suez would.isolate
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r l will drive
t
6. it is doubtful th
see tato be the iS0laL-
~
aa
on Cairo, Rather r tnell g tiara forces . ?~z the
ton and destructions of the Egyptian
east hank of the canal.
?. Both.-Gairv and Tel-Aviv dnb~o h ave de-
stroyed fighting' as severe, The Israelis cla~. as. ?e 70 Egyptian tanks and '27 .aircraftr we
as capturing 10 SAM sites on the west bank.
reduction in Egyptian SRM defenseswill ofallow the
their support
1T~ygreater latitude
ba~,ko
forces on the west bank.
'F'HB SyRIAN FROM
8 * Relatively heavy fighting took place on the
Syrian front today asuthat)ieqArab
advance alon :lie sv the Jordanian 40th
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servers believe - i -
strayed in the day s
have beatan ot` 1daj craft at-t~cks- and
Aviv alsorsays that
30-tanks and Sao a~ front, o the and UN ob-
it has Made some advances
ech Charr:Ls' now In Israeli
Damascus radio c? a -ms
m1--4-j011,! The Israeli cla3.ttt to
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1.6. Radio Cairo has announced that nationals.
of countries not a party to the war between Egypt
and Israel who are captured by the Egyptians will
be treated as mercenaries and will not enjoy the
protection stipulated by the Geneva Agreements for
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prisoner's of ear. The announcement also-contained
a demand that all governments
fromajoining athe Is~ae7,~~ .
to prevent their raa.~c,ona
ranks, jixcluding the suspension of alb. facilities,
for transporting.such volunteers to Israel.
ISRhEL
l oreign Minister Evan is leaving New York
tonight .for Tel. Aviv, according to a neuters .report.
ISRAFti PUBLIC MOOD
19. The public mood in Israel as the second week
of the war-ends has not "softened" with respect to a
~orwith
political settlement
t~hehp~'es? n'~, ..most~1sr~e~.~.sa
US Embassy report .
are convinced that there is little hope for a viable
peace settlement after the current hostil iti.es and
,ceord,ingly, they conclude that Israel can only, hope
to buy time for its security by the massive ?destruc?
tion of Arab forces on both fronts - prior ' to a cease?
fire To some extent, this widespread feeling in Is-
rael must be considered a constraint on Israel's dip-
lomatic flexibility.
BENELUX COUNTRIES
20". Arab ambassadors stationed in Belgium are
pressing the Benelux governments to'adopt a more co-
acdule. Amba asheen
operative attitude toward?theArab
sadors representing Egyp ' Syria,
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the most a.ctLve. They have protested vigorously
against reports in the local news media that em+phasize
J M ~^ 4
Arab agg.ressi.orl and have bombarded the 4e0yec ve
governments with inquirYs concerning rumors of arms
_. e._I .a_A.,..,- ..
shipments and pub i
serve ill Israel
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SCANDINAVIAN PEACE KEEPING FORCE
23. Norwegian Defense Minister Fostervoll has
announced that Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland
are prepared to provide. a 5,,200 -man peace-keeping
force to the. Middle East if ,requested by the UN.
This decision was *reached at a .7--18 October meeting..
of Nordic Defense-Ministers. The. four power force
could be ready to depart six days-after notification.
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ANNEX X
Arab Oil, and the Eur'o3ean Community
Although the Western European countries 'are
-attempting to form a common 'position regarding the
oil cutback, divisive tendencies may prove too,
sting n Joint contingency p`larts exist, but, because,
of the countries ? different views of their o
tage, the alas mad not be
.The jnnadiate impact from war damage and produc-
tion cutbacks will vary considerably among EC
menmbers.? The shutdown of three eastern Meditex:-
r?anean pipelines already has dropped. Italy's oil
imports by seine 24 percent and Fr?a.nce's by 14 per.-
cent, while affecting other members.' imports-only.
moderately or * not at all. Because of the large ,
difference in shipping distances, those nations such
as west Germany that depend most heavily on North .
African oil will feel the pinch of a production cut-
back much sooner than those such as ? the Benelux
countries that depend on Persian Gulf supplies (see
the table). Italy already has imposed an embargo
orn most refined oil exports outside-the EC--a. move
detrimental to US supplies that may be emulated by .
other Community members if the supply situations
?
worsens 6
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Over the next few months,, the impacof reduced
oil imports will be partly mitigated by res
stocks i iaintained by the EC nations . All have about
a two-month supply on hand, and France reportedly
has a 94,--day reserve. Arab ail, however, accounts
for between 63 and 78 percent .of EC members' oil
imports and a similar share their total th~.y .
Arab ercArab states,. together-
reductita.acx. As on a in result, production a 5uctio5-10 by percent.
with already interrupted pipeline deliveries, would
soon force LC natiOns levels' weresmaintained,
stocks*. If ct~,rx'rrecn
.these reserve; might be depleted thinlsix toes fined
months.and total available supplies
to one-halt of normal. Conservationtmeasur es could
delay the depletion of reserves by
few months.
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]C Nation's Dependence on Arab Oil.-by, Source, 1972
(percent of total imports)
Persian Gulf
by Pipelines*
ig ingperative
(
North African Persian' Gulf
by; Tanker* by Tanker
(45-day deliyerY)?
1117
da deli )
Total
Arab,
Crude
no
,
,
Italy
24
19
26
09
18
46
78
France
Ur ited I iregdom
1.5. ..
49
69,
West Germariy
39
29
71
4 '
.53 ? ' ?
, 63
.
.66
Denmark
Distributed on. the basis o
estimated 1973 pipeline use,
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ANNEX 1I
internal Economic situation in
~t a~a Syria y .
EGYPT
The Egyptian a sternal' ecaraoma c r i.tuation appears
to hatre ' cha.atged vetc~~eshas a or~.age.s"ha.dodev~el perk war.
Before the war a number for imports.
with Arab of a aid pouring lh rr~d avallab ].ity of foreign
because
exchange no longer imposes a constraint on supplies,
but ? internal, and external, distribution ottleneeck he--
ar e creating problems. The supply itiia.tion
less does not appear to have worsened noticeably,
whereas the attitude of consumers has improved Egyptians
agree that the gyp
s 'do
s ore bearable 'a.n wartime than
i rably * Z~ finding
finding s1~o
during the' ."no peace/no war" era.
POL supply remains the Mprincipa1 problem area. ?
s been
h
~-
a
Apparently Libya
replace the crude oil delivered to -.Alexandr .a by
Thus far the food supply situation in Egypt-
ian cities does not appear to be deteriorating-
Extensive shortages and soaring black market prices
were reported just after the war beganr probably
as a result of hoarding, but st~ck.5 in state stores
Thit
a s ding a stockpile ~ofswheat' in Europe. o
including
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contention is consistent with discrepancies that
have been noted in- Egyptian wheat supply data.
For example, wheat deliveries reported in Egyptian
customs data over the last several years have been
consistently lower' than imports' contracted for,
indicating possible stockpiling abroad. In. a.ddi-
.tion, USDA has noted an unexplained surge, beginning
some years ago, in per capita wheat availability in
Egypt,, suggesting accumulation of supplies at home.
external stockpiles from Europe
elivery o
may becorne a, problem. US au?t horities endeavoring
to evacuate' tourists. frvm:.8g,ypt have :,learned that
war risk insurance for vessels :entorin9 Alexandria
is difficult, ii: 'i.ot impo-sSible., to obtain. This.,
situation could greatly impede the inflow of goods
unless additional Soviet tonnage can be.mustered..
if the war drags on, serious shortages could begin
to occur. In the case of wheat, however, Egypt.
might be able to last a month or so even if
deliveries were curtailed. A mont:t 's. supply at:
.least usually is on hand in Egypt, and 450, 003 tot's
of wheat. recently purchased in Rumania, .plus a
grant of 100000 ,tons from China,' probably would
be delivered under. any reasonable set of conditions.
Syria is believed to be facing deepening '
economic diff Lcu.lties* as a result of Israeli, air
^h
e
action, Contrary to optimistic comments by t
? minister of informatiol
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the des-
A major setback to-industry came
s.frsithole producer
truction of the Hims refineryw-sYra~a l in the cone
of 'i lldustrial and military fuelsrearY
fliCt. without the supplie5i
cifaT)ama,~tcusgobl.c3pl~oieGand
the ~najdf ~,ntlu.~t~.~,al c:en
Latakaa, factories and transportatia~rialthction -ins
will face serious problems. Heavy
the liins area, moreover, reportedly has resulted in
destruction of a ,,2lB, 000 KW poWerplant, representing
'regate ower capacity. -Port
over half of Syria .s~afacilitie~ at Baxtias, Latakiar
and petroleum stoxa*g- limiting
an4 ~'artus also have come
rec~a.veenca~malcd~l:.vera;es- of
Sl~:a.'s capability to is given to
civilian equipment needs, as ' prior.itY
military imports* There is at least one indication,
that Lebanese. shipments to the war' zones may be
suspended.
There is no indication that food supplies have
as' yet reached a-critical stage,, although the influx
of refugees- to Damascus and otlesmajaowever~stheuld
put pressure on available supplies. should
largely rural 'Population of Syria
be able to cope with shortages. in normal times,
Syria is. generally Self_suffi-cient in food and in
recent years has been blessed with rel4tively good
to excellent grain crops a
The heavy influx of Arab financial assistance,,
possibl-Y ranging up to some $1.2 billion, is largely
~.is?g long-term
meaningful in t~ ie context Of SY "
economic needs, notably for rehabilitation. In the
financial
short run, it. could help shore U p lY
status and cover cons Of ~d~m~ndiaagxhaxdtcurreaac~he
USSR, which apparently for at least some of its-supplies.
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