MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 99 (AS OF 0630 EST)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-2-10-4
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2012
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: November 2, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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NAVY & DOS review(s)
completed.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
2 'November 1973
, INTELLIGENCE -MEMORANDUM
MIDDLE_ EAST
Situation Report Number 99
(as of 0630 EST)
THE MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
MORI PER
C03223773
(All times cited in military paragraphs are
Cairo/Tel Aviv timer unless otherwise specified.).
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PRISONERS OF WAR
3. An Egyptian official claimed yesterday that a
POW exchange could occur only after a successful peace
conference, according to Reuter news service. Comment-
ing on President Sadat's remarks at his 30 October press
conference that Cairo would be ready to deal with the
exchange of wounded and other POWs once Tel 'Aviv moves
its forces to positions held on 22 October, the official
said only that some wounded POWs might be exchanged at
that time.
4. Some Israeli POWs in hospitals in Syria were
reportedly interviewed by Lebanese journalists, accord-
ing to the US Embassy in Beirut. The Israelis claimed
to be receiving good treatment. '
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STATUS or SOVIET NAVAL FORCES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
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.This morning, twelve combatants
,and two intelligence collectors were deployed in the vicin25x1
of the US aircraft carriers Independence, Franklin D. Roose-
velt, and John F. Kennedy which are deployed currently
southwest of crei-x.. d
HAYKAL ON WAR
11. Al-Ahram editor Muhammad Hasanayn Haykal
writes in his column this week about war. In a particu-
larly verbose exposition of his view of the situation in
general, he concludes that it is Israel which is likely
to initiate any new hostilities, but he implies obliquely
that Egypt is ready. itself.
12. Haykal sets the scene by stating his View of
the prospects for a negotiated settlement. ?"Peace is
far, far off--very far off. 'Even the road to peace is
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still far off. Even the start of the road to peace is .
Still far off.". He then explains that Israel stopped
fighting only under pressure from the US, knows-that it
could .no have continued the war in any case without US
assistance, and thus feels boxed in by this new awareness
of its dependence on Washington. Haykal concludes that
Israel "might now be beset by the temptation to slip
free" and take action toward "redressing the situation -
.on the battlefield."
13. Despite this heavy treatment of Israel, Haykal
does not limit the possibility of renewed military ac-
'tion to the Israelis. In his conoluding paragraph,
acknowledging that Egypt achieved only limited military
gains, he rejects any argument that these are sufficient,
"X am one of those," he notes, "who believes in the
principle that the one who does not advance is in fact
retreating." Haykal thus joins a growing list of Egyp-
tian commentators who are advocating renewed war.
EGYPTIAN BLACKOUT
14. A total blackout, partially lifted only'a
few .days ago, will be reimposed in Cairo, Alexandria and
Other cities in the Suez Canal and northern Nile Delta
regions, according to an article in the semi-official
daily Al-Ahram. Other Egyptian regions will maintain the
partial balokout already in effect for some time.
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THE PALESTINIANS
19. Yesterday's An-Nahar from Beirut quotes a
"prominent Palestinian spokesman" as saying that the
PaleStinian resistance movement will declare its posi-
-tion on participation in the proposed international peace
conference only at the last minute. According to the
Official,, no decision has yet been made regarding the
conference, but consultations on the issue are taking
place at various levels.
20. The Beirut newspaper claims that the Soviet
Embassy in Beirut has conveyed a verbal message to Yasir
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Arafat in which the Soviet Union acknowledges the Pales-
tinian Liberation Organization (PLO) as the representa-
tive of the Palestinian people and invites the organiza-
tion to attend the projected conference in that capacity,
This article- goes on to say that most of the fedayeen
organizations do not object in principle to participating
an international peace conference and that various ,
Palestinian circles have suggested that one of the fol-
lowing proposals on representation be adopted:
--a provisional Palestinian government be formed
to represent the Palestinian people;
--a high-level PLO delegation represent the body
of Palestinian people;
--the PLO appoint independent Palestinian figures.
to attend the conference.
21. According to the press account, the entire
issue of participation at the conference will be studied
at an extraordinary session of the Palestinian National
?Council to be held soon, perhaps in Cairo.
ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY
22. Algeria has called for an extraordinary meet-
ing of the OAU council of Ministers to establish a unified
Position on a solution to the Middle Bast crisis, accord-
ing to an Algerian broadcast. Algiers is prepared to host
such a meeting.
"EUROPE
23; British Prime Minister Heath said in a press
interview yesterday that Elluope had a role to play in
the urgent search for a Middle East peace, but that it
may be in the area of concerted private diplomacy rather
than in public initiatives. Heath also called for a
common energy policy for the European Community states
and for a strengthening of the powers of the European
parliament as part of the long-term goal to achieve a
common foreign policy.
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