MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 53 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-543-3-15-9
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: October 18, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

~-- - No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/03/21 : LOC-HAK-543-3-15-9
CENTRA INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
113 October 1973
INTELLIGENCE .IM1.EdvMOR.;NDUP1
M].OtLE EAST
Situation report Number' 53
(21s of 2230 EDT)
THE MILITARY SITUATION
State Department Review
Completed
GENZRIAL
1 Heavy ' fi.ghtthg was reported this ravening
between' the Israeli ?task force on the west bank of
the Suez Canal. and surrouliding Egypt.i,an units. The
.Egyptians Claim that they "are evicting penetrating
enemy forces wPiich hav been encircled i n scattered
locations." The Syrian front again was relatively
.quiet; the viri=ual cessation of air dctiv;.f.y in* the
area continued.for ? 1 he' third day.
EGYPTIAN FRONT
3, The Israeli,g claim to have .reinforced and
expanck d. their west bank bri.dgeklead while beating
MORI/CDF -
C03223256
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Off heavy ESYPtian, counterattacks on.'both sides of
the canal, About 110 Arab tanks were said to have
been destroyed in tho aotions w
that it has' 200. of Tel Aviv riow says
At least some of thetarmor-was ~Cfloatedeacrossbther
Canal.' On rafts, some iri broad daylight. Defehse
Minister Da%ran even oj_aini s to have fOrc O on the west bank during. the dayI.eCtc.d his
4. Israeli air aCLivity on the* E
+oIZt:
tOday was concentrated .on sup gpt~i an
AAA activity, I~~?~=ss~.ora of SAM and
, although a large nurnbei o.f gr?tand sup--
port mi ssionc; also were flown. in tho.area of the
west bank bridgelacad. The port Said area was again
the target of n:uiMrous air strikes, with other mis-
sions flown along the canal and against some ,lgyp-.
,tiara airfields..
5. Egyptian air aotjon was limited to defense
yatrol s a until the afternoon, when -the Israeli bridge-
head reportedly .was 'attacked. Cairo claims to have
downed, 12 ]: raeli aircr-E-t
d
~
w
-sraelis adz iit the l:ose
of
i
~
I
t
g
aiirca;a f t
ground fire x
to SAMs
ared
. r eel claims to have shat dcaa-1a1 27
gY}~ti~`ara aircraft, including three additional Mirages
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 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/03/21 : LOC-HAK-543-3-15-9
SYRIAN FRONT
B. Today was .tile. quietest day of the war on
the Syrian fJ:oIlt, wi,tli artillery exchanges being.
the only ground actions- of note. The Israelis have
made no rlaixns of Arab combat equipment destroyed.
Syria, on the other hand, claims that 30 Israeli.
tanks and 10 a- ored vehicle6 'Wore dostrayed during
an Israeli attack . Air activity over the front was
at a low levy 1, xsraoli aircra' ft flew defensive
patrols over Syria. and southern Lebanon,, and Syrian
MIn. fl
ew patrols near Tartus.
10. Radio Jerusalem report. that the commander
of the 68th Syria, infantry brigade 'h ,s boon cxocuted
by order of pr sx.d ant Asad. The unit commanded by
colonel Rafiq Nalawith failed to hold Israeli forces
attacking along the Damascusa Qufaytir'ah road. A
report yesterd6LV cl tinted that President Asad had
relievod three Syrian .genc:rals for lack of aggres-
sive~ess, butt tins-,is the first indication of puni-
tive measures.,
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 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/03/21 : LOC-HAK-543-3-15-9
LEBANON
14. Late -today an Israeli., military office: re-
hat there has been- an increase in the nun.-Lbor
of rocket attacks by fodayeen based. in southern
Lebanon. The official ; st, ted' 'trhhc-at sooner or later
the Israelis will fincl:'the time to take action
against the feciayeen, and that this action will prob-
abiy . be seven: ~: .
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SOVIET NAVAL ACTiVITX IN TNE MEDITERRANEAN
16. The deployment, of four.. axriphthious ship
to the Mec1iterra.aie?an on 17 October raises the number
of Soviet naval ships' there to 73 units-an' all-time
high o Norrttally, the Meditorranean force numbers be-
tween 45 and 50 sizbniarine and surface ships. The
majority of the Soviet ships are in, the eastern Mcd-
iterranean.
17. 'The :current force includes' 27 surface com-
batants-including amjthibious va s,e:].s and minesweepers--
and 18 sub-marines, four of which carry cruise mnissiles
The Soviets ndw have eight amphibious landing ships
.in the Mediterranean',. although some of these may re-
ttlrn to the Black Seca- over ' the next ' f ew day's. The
remaining force is comprised of ?28 logistic support
ships and Intel liyenc.e collectors.
18. Before the Middle East fighting began,, . the
Soviets had 14 major combatants in the. Mediterrnean.
Thc-:re are 17 there now, but two of the recc-nt arrivals
had been .scheduled. several months ago to visit Italy
,at this time, :which ? they are now doing.
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19 . The war started Burin t17G Semiannual So- .
Vitt Submarine t ur.nov ro ' A 'relief group of nine sub-
ma Ines 3:rorrl t11 P3oi therm, ''1eot entorcc1 the Xle iter
' 'raxlean on 4 and 5 October. Turnover usually takes
about tern days., but thus far only .thxrea- Eu}amarines
are known to have left the Mediterranean. Although
the remaining .-SIX units probably rill leave soone
they may have been ordered to stay on patrol because
of the wak,
THE KO:4c:IN MISSION TO CAIRO
20. The .Midd ,e East News Agency announced .to_
night that'=c;:,i.dent Sadat had three lengthy meetings
with Soviet Premier K6sygin in Cairo. Moscow has .not
b=et .admitted that I osygth is Vi
siting Egypt.
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LEWD !,RN- FRROR? ;TS
'23. The tera-c~r a.s't~s who set, zed ,the Bank of
America }.buil,2ing ill Beirut today continue to hold
an estimQzted' 29 loo stagos, ixlcluding '19 or 20 'bank
employees, Ncgot? odors betwcen the ?terrorist.s 'and
the Lebanese Goverrnrc nt negotiators are in abeyance
until dawn tc ir;c~rrow . As negotiations ceased for the
night, the terrorists were demai aeliilg a
?-re.1ea,e . ?a: seven ?'?political. prisoners'from
Lebanese jails;
--cu,.cody of .every new hhostages, including senior
Bank of ~Wier.irt officials in Beirut, in exchange
fay relc,a4e of host ages now being held;
--safe conduct; for hostatiyes', e'rrorists and the
Algerian ambassador (who has been attempting to
mediate) to fly to Algiers; and
'e'"ran om pay; nt of ,$,10 million. .
FET)AYI,,'h',Tq -EGYPT
24. The Palestine Liberation Organization is ex-
trenmely unhappy with Egyptian P esside't aadat's recent.
speech-on the middle East conflict, according to an
Agency sours , : The Palestinians fear both Egyptian,
and Syrian leader; would forsake Palestinian interests
.in an effort to regain territory lost in the 1967 war.
Sadat's spt:ech tended to confirm thea.r fears in that
he called f.or a ret.urzi to?the 1967 boundaries but was
silent on the feday'een.,claims to the territory'-of Is-
rael proper.
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 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/03/21 : LOC-HAK-543-3-15-9
NORTH KOREAN ASSISTANCE
27. Pyongyang's public announcornon't on 18 Oc--
tobor that It is -pre)~ared to supply Military assist-
ance e to Egypt; and Syria, i.s clear?ly ; intended to under
score North Korec 's solidarity with. the Arab- cause
and to .rzcrOa,r, the North's 'support in the third world
as the crucial vote on the Korean question in the UN
nears It also provides a convenient means of ex-
Plaining and capitalizing on the military assistance
Pyongyang has: alrea.dy,.,eG etly providcde
.28 a North Korea currently has at least 33
pilots in Egypt whose presehco it has thus far
veh-ementJ.y doniec o Pyongyang's, statement now ~ ill
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permit it to acknr waeclge the pilot' presence and
reap the propaganda benefits of assisting the Arab
cause
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30. while somewhat cautious in it propaganda
at the outb'): as of the war, Pyongyang has , stepped
upa the volume. of its public ? trea,tm nt as" the Arabs
have demons :rated their fights ng ability. It has
now begun to stage, ' the mass-rallies which character-
ized its supraort for the Arabs in 1967.
AFGHANISTAN
31. . Deputy Foreign I ,in'ister AJbdulleah is being
sent. to Washington. by-President Vaud to' deliver what
Abdullah' termed "a' very, important message on the
Middle East crisis" directly to PreAidan t Nixon,
Abdullah will leave Kabul for tl-LQ US on the 3.9th and
hopes to see the Pre s:i.dent shortly after his arrival a
He told the US Chaaxge" in Kabul that 'the message Was
the sole, purpose of 1'-i.:~ trip lout docl.ined to reveal
its contents. 1,1a did-state that the message was
"good news."
32. It is difficult to prodiot what the message
? from President. Dau4 w.L-11 contain. The Afgha'als are
strongly behind their ?fel.low Muslim* ' in the conflict
with Israel. They have good contacts with most Of
the Arab states but in particular with the more
conservative ones such as Saudi ' Arabi a , Possibly
Ditud believes the can, perform some in?t6r^mediary role
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CHINESE REACTION
35 ? PeYizxg s a n i. i~aa]. public reaction to US of
forts to resupply Israel has been mild. An N(;NA
article de.Alt with the situation .in a factual manner,
mainly quoting :from the McCloskey briefing, So fax: ,
Chizlese, media hhavo not pui)licizGd Moscow's resupply
of the Arabs
.
3G. Peking has continucd t critjcize the US
and USSR for "Contending and colludii,g" in. the l~1iddle
East to the detriment of Arab intere is . An NC NL A
article on'15 October avows that US-Soviet detente
will. "m iacle" the Arabs and leave them at the mercy
of Israel. It blame, an "in 4er'natioiial conspi'racv"
}7ac}r d 1-
e
the Arabs are not momentous.
l the superpowers for the Araba defeC-at. in 1967,
The article aciaed i:hat temporary 1ocaJ. setbacks ;for
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$7. Peking's Propaganda line suggests that it
may fo s4e ovc:ntuaZ iritervc'n? jon by Moscow and Wash?
ington Ito arrange: a cease-fax?e. By 'accusing the
~~~erpca;,rers of doing t'he~r utmost to x'eimt~os a "no
war, no peace l.tudtioz~'on the Arab , the Chinese
appe r to be I?osita.on nr themselves to take advantage
rofy any Arab disappojiztm :zit about the outcome of the
REIkCTIM
39. During a Nat .rnax Assetd)ly' debate on the
Biddle East. yesterday, French Foreign Minister Jcbert
delivered a speech which was generally critical of
Israel and of Soviet-Aitierican efforts to end the hos-
tilities- Jobert said' if the' wa rinq parties are not
ready for peace it is Up to the great powers to pre
them-towards a ,settlement . The present o
said, could be stopped'by the USand,USSRiflthey Tiess
wished to do so. No oi7e in iaarla.ament challenc ec
him on this point, but Jobert was - sub-jetted ' to heavy
crossfire over the implementation of ;the French arms
embt rgo to the #?iddlc East. Jober answered these
Challenges by, simply repeating the French. policy of
differentiating' between battlefield countries (Israel,
Syria, Jordan, ~ y'pt). to which the eritbargo applies,
and non-,battlefield, countries, to 'wlhjch arms can be
sh?ppsd despite, their sending forces Into the present
conflict.
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I 4P W 1.
ANNEX I
Economics of t111., t Qrsi~an Gulf or'BC / Price Increase
16 octobar 1973
(See Sit Rep No. 47)
z-2?,an' le;"Ied? L~I`LIelm bit 1913f,
1 0et 7.33
P7 t?7 DeMaild
($/k a~rrel)
Percent
or
Increase
1,
Rostnd Price)?/(Saudi Arabian
2
right 34?)
I
3,011
5.11
69.7 ?
.
+
'
Oy
;
Ity. (12,% of
'
.376
.64
.
4
,
.
?rothuction C
ost
.10
ado
.
Ta pcfere.3)cr "Profit" 1-(2a3)
2.5:.35
4,37
5.
Tax (55% 0 -,4)
1.394
2.40
6.
7
0var n' CI RevonUo (2+$)
1.77
3.04
Iba cY
.
fl
Cost to oil Company (3+6)
~
3..F37
3.14
67.9
.
~ ~ima?t:cd C.+i 1. Corr, ?any Profs
.35
.35
9.
t`:utimated Sales Prjca ('ob)
7
+3)
(
2.22
3.49
10*
t tjmated Transportation
C
v ;/ (to US Gulf Coast)
1.48
1.48
11.
US Import r+ut~
.105
,105
12,
Esiatii,a~;cd Sa1e~ )'rasa (cic
i
US Gulf Coast,,)
3.805
5
07
acr
.
5
33.4
e ~
I. oa
01-d ,7- 2540
01l Company Purchases o
GOVCr,'Men t'--Owned (22.5t)
2.30
3
65
Government oil Sali~^ t O
Third Parties (2
.
.5 ]
3.12
3.65
17.0
The Per:uian GX71i' vC-1TLbi2r;; Of OPEC arC r
TC~Irve~xt, ~nf?.~ar Abu rrhabi, 2r cn, Sxaq,
r and Saudi 'Arabia. o Ild-Z zncrabor of OPEC are Algeria 't
xndonesiOL' I+t~1y , rvl,cjC~xc7p aI1[T Venezueli. The _ _
Zation of Aral) PetrOle=,' Expor'tiri.7 Countrjes arlea~ Abu nrhahi,, Algeria,
Da.hrain, rr.'a,q, Kuwait, Libya, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.
b. Posted price :and tax- reference price are t ynonymOUS `terms.
C. Calculation baud on tanker rates of Slorld celc 100 which is a
repre:~"ittative avr~ra.rt , although spot tanker a'at.es are currently much
highs x; the- account: i:or only'a Mall fraction of the oil beiz g tran.,-
ported.
0XA/O1~R
e-, e 4- 7
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