MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 45 (AS OF 2230 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-543-2-11-4
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 19, 2012
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: October 16, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTREIL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
].G October 1973
INTELLxGENGi; MEMORANDUM
MYDULE EAST
' Situation Report Number 4"a'
State Dept. review
completed
. Gns of 2230 EDT)
TI;E MIZ,xTAIi'.~ SITUA'~ION
. ? GENERI~I, '
1. troth Cairo and Tel Aviv have provided addi? .
tir~nal information on the Israeli. counterattack .The
comm~ndc~ raid across the ~ canal near Deverl9oir.
.Egg?'ptis.7ls claim -to ?havo destroyed ?a large part o?' the
attacking Tome, but admit that some Tsraela. armor'
crossed the canal. The Israelis gave no indicatian
that;: of}Yer than ' a commands ?groe had attempted to
cr?ss the canal, and did not say that larger forces
Mould try to ?ol].oia up the crossing.. .
2.. On the Syrian. T'ront, little action has been .
repotted since a combined Arab offensive invalv3.ng
the Iraqis,. Syrians, and Jordanians was? beaten. b~o9c
during the day. The Syrians stall c3.aim to hold key
? terrain overlooking Qunaytirah road.
THE EGYPTIA2J FRONT
3. An?Ec~yptian communigadmittedo~hatCaismal~.dio
Qn the evening o~ 1.6 Oci:obex'
Israeli armor force managed to cross the canal Theer
cover of ?a ~.aa:ger count~;rattack in ..the Sinai.
' Egyptians sta~.e that the 'Israelis were forced to
withdraw under fierce armor and air strikes. Cairo
added that the enemy force on the west bank has. been
.scattered and ~e being pursued.
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raQlis have indicated .that the~.r
~
i_~~-,~~~e
s
oounterattaek had been sucoes$~ssibl.efexcep~ionyot
~c~yptian SAM units, with the p
SA-Gs, to move back to the west bank of the canal.
This is bec~:use tl~o Israeli counterattack, demonM
gtrated flexibility ar~d could ba duplicated else-
wheru. The operation reportedly will free t1~e Is-
rae~.i Ai.r I'o.rce for more intensive activity along .
the fast bank. The Israel~.s said that ~erriea and '
m4tori~ed barybut did~not~state}~howolongdtherforceg?
of the' canal, .?
would atteritpt to remain there.
SYRIAN T'RC7NT `
S . There have. baen only :sporadic reports _cort-'
cerning the situation' an the Syrian front.. After
the fntertsc~ tank battles that raged during the day,
both sides axo proba]al~- xegrouZ~ing. The Syr~.ans
claim to ho~.d Tell ech-Gha vrhich overlooks the
na tirah road.
have driven .a nar
t is possible that the yra.ans+
client into' the xsraeI.i lines..
G . Radio and TV broadcasts in Isntman sport
that the ,7ordan'ian 40th Armored Brigad?' enter.ad
com3~at ~in Syria during the day and fought "fierce" ~'
battles with the Israelis. A report from Amman
states that the ~ordana.ans withdrew only because
their flanks were exposed by tha failure of ad~oin-
~,a~.g Ixac~i and .Syrian troops to make. head~ray against
xsraeli forces. An z.srael.i. assessment of the fight-~
ing 'vn this 'front claims that 25 to 30 Jordanian
tanks were destroyed ire combat. The Jordanians.
admit to 1Z tanks lost and l7 damaged. The Israelis
believe that 'the Syrians, Irac~a.s, and Jordanians ~ .
in Syria are fighting as 'separate entities wa.th
little overall coordination. '
`~, ~ report f'rorn Saudi Arabia stakes that a
Saudi Haw}c'missile battery was load?d aboard a
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C-130 transport aix'eraf't this al:ternoon. .The air-
craft departed for an unknown destinat+a.an ],afar 3.ri
the day. An Israeli report indicates that a. Hawk
bai:{:ery has arrived in Aleppo, Syria. T1ie Saudis
are not fu11y. traitaed in the .use of the US-.made
Iia~~rk. surface~to~aiz missile system' The ten hawk
batteries that form the Saudi a3:r defense' system
are operated with the halp df US contzact advisers.
'In the absence' of these advisers, the combat ef--
?fec~iveness of the Saudi Hawk units is open to ~~es--
ti.on. 'The battery. could be intended to prov~.de .air
defense for the Saudi contingent now moving slowly
'toward the ~ Syr3.an fro~~t?.
1~iI,G~RIA
$. The Algerian?Government may b~ prepar3.ng to
send .adc~it~.onal fox'ces to aid the .wax efTort, in ;ad--
dit~.on to the two air force s uadrons sent to Libya
ear~.~.er this dear'.
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ISTi1~EL ,
..
'~.4. In ]yes 1:G October s~aeech to- tine Knc~sset,
Pxa.mo Mina.ster Moir sa~.d TeZ Aviv wvu~.d never agree
to a ~ceasa~-~~.rd p~'edicated an an Israe~.a. withdrawal.
to .the boundara:es exa.sting pra.or to the 19b7 Arab~+
Israeli wax'. .A ,coase-~~iro wou3.d only coins about.,.
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aGCOrding to the. Prime Mxni:ster, when the?Arabs were
defeated on both fr?nts. Gommant3.ng on the military
aituatiot~, Mrs. Meir said tha war against Syria was
not ovar, but that Damascus' "strategic inf~rastructuse"
had b~:en seriously damaged. On the Sinai front, Prime
Minister Meir claimed that ?signs~indicate that the
enemy initiativQ has been destroyed.."
15. M~:s. Meir voiced eomp~.ete d.isbel.ief in Arab
..claims that the Arab goal is limited tea retalsxng ter--
?ritory lost to Tel Aviv in thQ x96? hosti.lities.' She '
'said sha had no doubt.but'that the Arab aim was the
ca~7ture and destguction of Israel. ~ "This i~ a war
against our very ex~:stence as a state and a laeople."
54VIET REAC':t'ION ~- ICCSYSIN TRIP7 ~ ~ ~ - '. ~ .
7.G. Soviet media cont~.nue to issue briof
straightforward accounts of?US arms deliveries to xs--
tool. A Moscow radio ]~roadcast this afternoon re- .'
peat;ed' an. Ar~sociated Press report that US .A~.r ;Force '
transports had s Another
Moscow broadcast, fc5cused
on t1~a need for peace, but chastixed Prime Min~.ster
Meir ?or her insistence that peace i~ contingent on
the return to thg G Octobex cease-fire `,Lines.
ISRAEL-USSR
18. Despite som~c speculation' that as a result '
of the war Moscow might cut off the flow of Jews emi-
grating from the Say~.et Union to Israel, moge than
1,000 ~Tetas were moved from Vienna to Israel. fluxing
the getiocl 7rt13 October. -?
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UN'IT'ED NATIt7NS
21. UN peace efforts remaa..n stalemated, and
Arab? diplontats show no interest in compromise reso-
].utivns . Insis ring on ~ a cease-fire with a returxi to
the. 1967 borders, Egypt~.an I~`oreign Min~.ster ~ayyat
has sa~,d ho a.a nvt encouraging anon-aligned ~es41u-
t:ion but expects the US tv produce a draft,.. US dip
~.vmat5 relaoxt, however, that .~ayyat has also indi-
cate~l that? Egypt, while preferring Secu~:3.ty Council
action, is preparod to ask that tl~e General Asse~-laly
adopt a resolution if rho Security Council is unab~.e
tv act. The possibility of moving' the Middy East
issue to thc~ Assembly--where the Arabs wou7.d not face
tlae possibility of a veto and.would.enjoy majority
support---has apparently~ueen discussed several timofi
in cansultatic~n~ among P-ra>7 representatives ' to the 'C7N.
UN prQCedures would permit the. Assembly tv take?up
the Middlo East ~sit~utation only aftor the Council had
become' deadlocked by a veto. Th~:s formula was? in-~
evoked in tho ,1;956 and 19.ri8 Middle Eas~? crises. ?
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ELIFOPEAN. ME17IA ,REACTION
~3? The.US resupp7.y announcement received heavy '
covea:ac~e in the London press. The general tons of the ,
editaraal comment was~that the US action is 1ik?ly to .
hat?e serious con9ec~uenCes . Al].. articles Hated that
.the US decision was made?to counterbalance th? Soviet
Unian's resupply ?~ the Ar alas , but tlii~ aspect-: of the
reporting received less emphasis.r
~4.. west German press commentary also adopted
a grave tone. ~ 4ne ax'ticle raises the question of
whether Moscow and washi.ngton ea.n pursv~e "coritrover~-
sial ?' policies. in the Middle East without evolc~.nq an
open confrontation. Another reports that the US sup-
ply of far. t was ~ ust a matter ?f time of tc~r ?the ' Soviets
began thair airlift.
Z5, The Faris press has placed vaxying interpre-
tatioxls on the US announcement, ranging from a ,Comma--
nist press organ?s projecta.on o~f Sixth L'leet inter-~
?v~tltion? to predictions that escalation a.n mil.itaxy
assistance tai11 be matched by stronger diplomatic ef-
forts to end the war, A debate on french Middle?East
policy i$ seheduZed tomorrow afternoon in the National
Assemb7.y,
2G. ~'he Malian media?described the US?annourice-
ment as signifying a "dangerous escalation" ?f the
P~~.ddlo Eastern war, taut, virtually all newspapers_4i~-
clud~.ng a Communist publication---bal.aneed the US re~
supply effort with reports of the Soviet airlift.
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Z7. East ~uropoan media have thus Ear avn~,dbd
direct~commont do the US.airli~i: n~ m$litary suppiies-
~o Israel, preferring to sirnpl.y rep?riy.` cha~'gasa~entl.g
from Arab , ns~,ructionsh~~on ~Moscaw~rew Yichr i.sa~t~.li ~
avo=siting ~-
treatii~g the US air].if't in a rela~.ivear~ticulaxly
fashion. The aix:li~~. question is a p
touchy ~.ssua? fdr WarsaietsCareedcaing ;the&sameQthingir
awareness.tihat the 5ov
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lran'~5 S~osition' on the? Middle
Eastern Conflict
Since the outbreak of the war, Tehran's public.
~~s~.tiion~?ha5 b?en cane of token support for the Arabs,
Zargely~.becauso of the government's ac~rareaaess of the
Iranian pooplc~s' sympathy for their ~e114w Muslims..,
Since hofitili.t~.es got underway:.
~--the govcinmeni. ? reaff~.rmed i.ts support fox xs4
rae~.i withdrawal from the oGCUp~.ed ~territvra.es;
---medical supp~.ies were promised tta the Arab
$ide ~ ~ :. .
--d~..plomatio r~Ia~ions were, reestablished w~.th
Iraq at Baghdad's requestm-which had the effect.
of freeing I=aqi txaops wlia had been guarding
the Iranian border to fight on the Syraan .front;
-~-Tehran agreed to lean sia~ df ,the tez~ C-130
requested by I;a.ng Faysal to transport men, ax~n~s,
and amntun~.tian within Saucli Arabia.
popular sentiment is unlilcely to .induce. ?the Shah t.o
~aart~.cipate in any Ara>, oa.l boycott of the Welts t4,
support the ra~ab combat fvraes with materiel or
~unclsF ax to sever long-standing, mutually advan-~
tageraus ties with Israel.
The Shah' and the Tran gover?nizig Mite view
? Isxa~l as a .useful e7.ernent in the c~eopolitiaa~. makeup
of thy: i~1~.ddl.a East .and have' a fairly ~da.rect utter?st
in Tszael's survive].. Israel tends to absorb and
deflect Arab animos~.ties that might otherwise be'
eft by ~,ran~-especially as the Tra;nians aonso],idate
their'military pre-em~.nence in the Persian Gulf.,
~ran? is the principal sourco ~of xsraeli oil
a.i~p~a~?k~s: and t ze has bee a significant dc~greo of
Cooperata:on In militaxy manors,
?includi:ng high-lovel contacts and Iranian pu.rchasos
of Tsrac~].i-manufactured small arms.
C-3.
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Proposals for an ~,rab oiL boycott o? the West
have }seen repeatedJ.y cr~.t3,claecI by the' Shah, HB
recently affirmed zran's intent3.on to contf,nue the
flour of nil, pointiing out the a.neffeCtivensss of a
selecta,ve, anti-US em3~argo ~.n view of the re~.ati~rely
small amount v~ Middle Eastern oa.l Guzrently imported
by the US.
? hevcrtheless, popular sent~.mant in Iran can be
expected to becorfla snore vocally pro-Arab the Longer
?the war cant.3~nues. The issue can be exla].oited by the
' traditional opia4s~.tion in an ef?or.~t to embarrass the
S}rah .and his government.' The x'eligious Leaders, for
example, wlx.o ~.n. the east have sharply cr~.t3.cized the
Shah far.,}xis a1?se. relations wi.t11 Israel, will try
try stir up tliea.r folS.owe.x:s. Tl~e conservative clergy:
has always been at odds with. the Shah because his
secular refarn~s threaten their ~ position.
University stiaclents, who ,have grievances of .their
o~n+n r may wc~11 stage demonsta~ations in support of thc~
Arab cause, probably with anti.-government overtones.
. Axxti-~sznerican themes, frec~uentl.y adopted by the moa:e
rada.cal opponents of the Slxah in' an effort to generate
resentment .over the c3,osa xe7,ationship laetween the ~US
and Tehran, may .become more str3.dent~ L~Tonc of this,
liovrever, oanstitutes pressure suff~.c3.ant to ~orae a
f undamenta.X shift in the Shah's viows .
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