MIDDLE EAST SITUATION REPORT NUMBER 8 (AS OF 1700 EDT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-542-16-27-3
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2010
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: October 7, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/06: LOC-HAK-542-16-27-3
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MORI
C05482098 &
C03223280
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 25X1
? - 7 _Oc-tp_ber 19171_ ?
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANPVM
State Dept review
completed
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MIDDLE EAST: ?
tio-n- Re-p-art----Nrimb_ex _
? (As- of .1:7OCI EDT)
MILITARY SITUATION
GENERAL
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2, The Israelis claim Lo hi.ve won 'control
.on both.fronti.
the air
at least for the present.
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3. The Egyptians are focusing on moving elements of
Lo arMored divisions across the canal near Ismailia and
the city of SPez. The laraelis:?howeverk. claim to have
destroyed mtstof the bridges across the canal. Both-
Cairo and 'rol Aviv roport an Israeli counterateaek agalnst
the Egyptian foxces on the at bank
Port Said after having crossed the.cenal earlier today.
An Israeli spokesman has admitted that some 400 Egyptan
tanks plus infantry .are on the east bank.
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11,
? 13.. So far the Egyptian.press has'not accused the US
of being a direct aceomPlice.t& Israel' as it did iv 1967. .
. The Algerian andMoroccan media have 6ely tangentially
cited the US in conneetion. with the.cUrrent-hestilities.
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ISRAEL
14. The mood of Israeli leaders has been described as
grim as becomes Increasingly apparent that they will
have to pay a high price to beat back.invading Syrian and
Egyptian forces. Ambassador Keating in .Tel Aviv believes
*: that a US call for a ceasefire? now, therefore,. would
backfire. Not only would the Israelis angrily reject
such a proposal, but the US ambassador believes that they
weld thereafter be evaft less willing.to listen to urgings
of restraint from Washington and other Western capitals
.once they gained the initiative.
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15. In contrast- to:Israell-leaders, 'Iiresident_Sadat
seemed relaxed and confident today, telling visitors. that
Egyptian forces would continue fighting until they reach
the June 1967 boundariai-.-no matter hew long it took.
16. The Israeli public is being given only general. '
descriptions of the fighting in the Golan Heights and
along the Suez canal. Information g'iven the Israeli news
media has focused thus fat on laying out Tel Aviv's reasons
for not launching a pre-emptive attack, .and playing up the
evacuation of Soviet dependents and advisers from Syria
and.Egypt; The press has also tried to give the impression
that the US,,while.giving lip-service to the idea of- a cease.-
fire resolution, is using delaying taEtice at the UN in '
order to give the Israelis enough time to push the Egyptians
back across the recital,
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' No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/06: LOC-HAK-542-16-27-3
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SOVIET MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
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17... There has been no significant dhange in Soviet
naval deployments in the area
SOVIET .POLITZCAL DEVELOPMENTS
lp; in keeping with the low profile it has maintained
since the fighting began, Moecow today issued a relatively
bland government statement?on the present crisis.. Carried
by.TASS at lzpo EDT, the statement blames Israel for the
current situation, but limits Moscow's role to political.
Support for the Arabs. -Contrasting the state of affairs
1L the :Middle East to recent efforts at international
detente, the statement says that a durable peace in the
area rest s Onjsrael'.s willingness to return territories
.annexed during the 1967 war,' -
UNITED NATIONS
19.% -$anurity Council meilberS have reached no decision
-on calling a Council meeting:and Appear deadlocked on the
'question of issuing ti'tiats4Tire appeal. -Britist.
representatiVes at the UN hare denied press reports that
they requested a Council session. Australia., the only other
.Council member" openly favoring a meeting, has indicated that
it.will leave the initiatiVeto. the,U. The Soviet Union.
and non.-aligned states are opposing a Council meeting
.which, under the UN Charter,'would preclude formal General
Aesembly'consideration.of the Middle East hostilities, '
The Arab stat ee apparently prefer to present their case at'
tomorroW"s General Assembly session where they can rely upon
majority Support and where there is no great power veto.
US'Ambassador Scali hopes to-limit the number of speakers -
'and preclude a"fUll scale-debate in::the' Assembly".by':Iimiting
the number pf*Speakers.
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No Objection to 'Declassification in Part 2010/08/06: LOC-HAK-542-16-27-3 '
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IIIP. IIP
T.ABYA
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? ./1.: President Qadhafi apparently has canceiled'his
Sobeduled'aPeech commemorating Italian Evacuation' Day.
The city of Tripoli ia Calm it keeping with the local
holiday. Our Embassy has no reports of any difficulties
fpr the 2000 Americans it the country.
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ANNEX
Hew Does The Situatibn Look Now
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Now Will It Look 1.1 Week* End?
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Thy Israelis clearly. Were caught off balance whe'n. the
attacks occurred along ? the -Golan Heights and the. Suez
Canal. Theirs forces were not fully 'mobilized, and the
performance of .both .the Syrians and Egyptians has been
better than. .anticipated. The immediate, objective of
the Israelis. it to ?contain the attacking forces while
mobilizing?their.rcierVet, By tomorrow, -the Israeli
.groend..ferces.shoUld.be ready to ?begin pressing their
counterattacks, .particularly in the ?Golan Heights.
Because .the Israelis have not yet been able. to Strike'
back aEfeotiv.ely't.ath armor, they have relied heavily on
their air arm to blunt the Syrian offensive. Some forward
positions have been lost to the Syrians., but the ?momentum .
of the Syrian drive appears to have .been stallyd. Within
the .net day or so the Israelis should regain the ?initiative
en both fronts and heaVy fighting will. ensue. We Believe
.the Israelis Will 'achieve their major objective;" -by the cud .
of the
1111.121.4L_Eluas_sa_tile Pal" Hei.Shts?
Israeli strategy :initially is to stop the Syrian
offensive and to counterattack with overwhelming force
aimed at destroying as much of the 'Syrian Army as possible*
.Presently the Israelis are trying to stall the Syrian
drive through.heavy air strikes. 'Meanwhile Israeli armor
is being mobilized for the counterattack. As part of their
efforts, the Israelis are likely to send armor columns
around the Syrian flanks', and might even sent an armored
column through Jordan.. The Israelis probably will not
attempt to occupy Damascus, however. Once the Israelis
have cleared the Golan Heights area they will likely
stop and hold. Severe damage will have been done to the '
Syrian army and little would be gained militarily by mov?
ing into Damascus. accupying a city the size of. Damascus
could be a long and difficult task,
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What Will Heppe& Along The Canal?
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On the Egyptlan front., the immediate situation appears
? to be less serious.. .The Egyptian ObjectiVe. appears to be
limited to that of acquiring only that area immediately.
? adjacent to the canal. A deep thrust into Sinai itself
would not seam likely because of the difficulty of,penctrat?
ion. Only twe' major roads lead across thepeninsula ond
both are heavily fortified by the Israelis. Clearly '
the Sinai buffer is paying off Ior. the Israelis by giving
thlm time to take care of the situation on the Golan
Heights before having to turn their attention to the
'Egyptian operation..
Row Lon .Will It Take To. Push ,The E
Israeli strategy on the Egyptian front at present is
to contain.the-Egyptian offensive ;within the immediate?
area adjacent to the. 'canal and to hold back Its counterattack.
until Israeli armored farces are fully .mobilized. The
Israelis are now more concerned about the situation along
the Syrian front and a counterattack agains the Egyptian
forces apparently is being .delayed?perhaps until Tuesday
or Rednes4ay,,. When.the_Ies,aells re ready to move against
the Egyptians, they 'will hit them hard. The objective
willbe. to cut off the escape routes by destroying the .
Egyptian'pontebn bridges and then striking with armor
and air power. against Egyptian forces left in Sinai.
Some of the bridgesreportedly have already been destroyed
but they cduld be replaced overnight. When fully engaged,.
the Israelis will.probably'be able to comPlete clearing
the Sinai ...within a few days.
Will The :Israelis Engage In Air Attacks on Cairo?
? The Israelis are capable of overcoming the Egyptian
SAM defenses although some aircraft losses will .occur,
and could ,severely punish the Egyptians through air strikes.
on population centers.. Deep penetration raids aimed at
0-vi:lians.hava not yet .oceurred ad probably will not as
long as the 'Israelis are confident of defeating the
Egyptians along- the-canak. If the Egyptians. attack?Tel.
Aviv, hawever,. counters trikes at Cairo are ?likely.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/06: LOC-HAK-542-16-27-3
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