COMMUNIST INTENTIONS DURING THE POST-CEASE-FIRE PERIOD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-31-2-25-7
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: February 28, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
SECRET/SENSITIVE
INFORMATION
February 28, 1973
MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. KISSINGER
FROM: Army Review Completed
JOHN H. HOLDRLDGE
SUBJECT:
Communist Intentions During the Post-Cease-
fire Period
MORI/CDF per C03223156
The CIA Station Chief in Saigon has forwarded his field assessment of
Communist intentions during the post-ceasefire period. In summary, the
assessment indicates that while the Communists are currently placing
their main reliance on political struggle, the
pattern of current Communist plans indicate that Hanoi is preserving and
expanding its military options in preparation for a possible return to the
use of military force should political developments fall short of Communist
objectives.
The assessment points to the following signs that no end to Communist
military pressure is in sight:
COSVN Resolution # 2 is reported
as making clear that Hanoi is preparing to reveru ED main iorce wariare
if the political struggle does not produce a settlement on its terms.
? Cadres of the VC 5th Division have been instructed to expand "
"liberated areas" without awaiting the results of the political struggle.
Other cadre have been instructed to observe the agreement outwardly
but to violate it secretly.
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25X1 as many as 16,000 NVA reinforcements,
including many imancry uroops, are now in the pipeline heading south.
? -- In a pattern parallelling the southward move of anti-aircraft
artillery in late 1971/early 1972, the NVA have established SA-2 SAM
installations in Quang Tri Province, thus gaining a security shield for
further offensive operations.
? The NVA is engaged in a major logistics push. Supplies are
reported to be pouriag into the A Shau Valley west of Hue and Laos truck
movements are reported to be over 400 per week.
SECRET/SENSITIVE XGDS ByAuth 4
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
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SECRET] SENSITIVE
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-- Communist designation of Due Co and Xa Mat as entry points
strengthen the prospect that they will continue to use Cambodia and
Laos as logistics bases.
The field appraisal concludes that these Communist steps may well be
the opening slices in the traditional Communist "salami" campaign
designed to maintain and strengthen Hanoi's military options and that
"the extent and severity of the Communist moves will surely increase
unless they are challenged promptly and with credibility." The
Station Chief's assessment is at Tab A.
SECRET /SENSITIVE
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