CEASEFIRE DEVELOPMENTS (FEBRUARY 15 - 4:00 P.M. EST)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 3, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 15, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

'e 1 767
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
MEMORANDUM
INFORMATION
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
SECRET_ February 15, 1973
MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. KISSINGER
FROM: WILLIAM L. STEARMAN
SUBJECT:
Ceasefire Developments
(February 15 - 4:00 p.1#- EST)
The following is a report on current ceasefire developments in South
Vietnam and on the present situation in Laos and Cambodia. This
report includes information received from State, Defense and CIA as
of 4:00 p.m. EST February 14, 1973.
Vietnam
Military
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS
APPLY
-- Significant military activity is continuing in MR I. The GVN is
making a maximum effort to recapture the strategic Sa Huynh area
astride Route I in southern Quang Ngai Province.
-- Sharp clashes have occurred along the Quang Tri/Thua Thien
front involving enemy- infiltration and artillery duels.
-- Military- activity continues in MR II provinces such as Kontum,
Pleiku, Binh Dinh and Phu Yen. The GVN is responding with air,
artillery and ground actions and has had considerable success in
reopening lines of communication.
-- In MR III, the situation remains quiet.
-- MR IV continues to experience relatively high levels of military
incidents. It remains impossible to separate VC from GVN initiated
activity, despite GVN reporting that all operations are in response to
enemy initiatives. There are indications that the GVN is mounting pre-
planned offensive operations.
There is some evidence that Communist holdings in the countryside may
be more extensive in certain areas than is being officially acknowledged
by the government. During the past week, reports from both American
observers and have pointed out discrepancies in the
official South Vietnamese appraisals of the local security situation.
25X1
i
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4767
x U
INFORMATION
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
SECRET February 15, 1973
MEMORANDUM FOR: MR. KISSINGER
FROM: WILLIAM L. STEARMAN
SUBJECT: Ceasefire Developments
(February 15 - 4:00 p.m. EST)
The following is a report on current ceasefire developments in South
Vietnam and on the present situation in Laos and Cambodia. This
report includes information received from. State, Defense and. CIA as
of 4:00 p.m. EST February 14, 1973.
Vietnam
Military
-- Significant military activity is continuing in MR I. The GVN is
making a maximum effort to recapture the strategic Sa Huynh area
astride Route I in southern Quang Ngai Province.
-- Sharp clashes have occurred-along the Quang Tri/Thua Thien
front involving enemy infiltration and artillery duels.
-- Military activity continues in MR II provinces such as Kontum,
Pleiku, Binh Dinh and Phu Yen. The GVN is responding with air,
artillery and ground actions and has had considerable success in
reopening lines of communication.
-- In MR III, the situation remains quiet.
-- MR IV continues to experience relatively high levels of military
incidents. It remains impossible to separate VC from GVN initiated
activity, despite GVN reporting that all operations are in response to
enemy initiatives. There are indications that the GVN is mounting pre-
planned offensive operations.
There is some evidence that Communist holdings in the countryside may
be more extensive in certain areas than is being officially acknowledged
by the government. During the past week, reports from both American
observers and have pointed out discrepancies in the
official South Vietnamese appraisals of the local security situation.
STCR1F...T
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
SECRET -2-
-- Embassy Saigon has reported that two and a half weeks after the
ceasefire, the fighting continues at a somewhat higher level than at the
Tet holidays ten days ago. Casualties are comparable to those of "high
points" in recent years and there has been considerable movement of
refugees and damage to civilian property. According to GVN figures,
5, 770 enemy and 929 ARVN soldiers have been killed since the signing
of the ceasefire agreement,
-- We have received our second reflection in DRV civil communica-
tions that North Vietnam is continuing to send supplies into Quang Tri
Province.
Political
-- President Thieu reportedly has told a group of legislative leaders
on February 12 that he will propose new presidential elections within
3-6 months, but that he also may have to accept a PRG demand for the
election of a constituent assembly. Thieu reportedly said that he probably
will accede to this Communist proposal but that he will insist that the NVA
first withdraw from. South Vietnam,
-- According to a Saigon domestic press report, a GVN official spokes-
man has said that the GVN does not consider such prominent GVN detainees
as Tran Ngoc Chau, Ngo Ba Thanh or "militant students" as falling within
the purview of prisoners envisaged for release by the Paris Agreement.
-- There are reports from MR I that Communist propaganda efforts
are increasing, stressing themes such as "send the soldiers home" and
"let the refugees go home. "
-- While there is some skepticism in certain areas of the country over
the effectiveness of the ceasefire mechanisms, overall the popular mood
remains stable and morale is relatively good,
-- Ambassador Sullivan gave Foreign Minister Lam a general descrip-
tion of your visit to Hanoi. Lam described the impasse that has arisen
over the FRG demands for a site in Saigon and the GVN position that these
would be the external signs of a second government in South Vietnam. As
a result of the difficulty, the GVN was to propose on February 14 that the
formal negotiations initially take place outside Vietnam.
-- Lam thought it would be relatively easy to set up the NCNRC once
substantive negotiations started, but the nature of elections and other political
matters would be more complicated.
SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
SECRET
-- Sullivan noted that the activist GVN position on the negotiations
was an excellent one. It was important for U. S. public opinion to believe
that the GVN was anxious to move ahead, while the PRG was reluctant,
and Lam said this was the GVN intention.
Four Party Joint Military Commission
--? Two members of the DRV's regional FPJMC delegation in Hue were
harassed without injury by a crowd of young Vietnamese, and a tear gas
grenade was set off inside the Communist compound in Saigon. Also on
February 15, wire services reported that GVN military police blocked
the chiefs of the Indonesian and Canadian ICCS delegations and numerous
correspondents from attending a PRGJMC reception in Saigon,
ICCS
-- At the February 15 plenary session, the political, military.and
administrative committees were upgraded from provisional to official
status.
-- In a February 14 conversation with Ambassadors Bunker and Sullivan,
Canadian ICCS Delegation Head Gauvin assessed progress to date as
satisfactory and said that relations between delegations were cordial and
that no rigid positions have emerged.
-- Embassy Ottawa reports that Minister for External Affairs Sharp
is considering a visit to Saigon prior to the GOC's decision on ICCS
participation beyond the initial 60-day period.
Mine Countermeasures
-- The Commander of our mine sweeping operation in Haiphong has
reported a slowdown of progress in negotiations with his DRV counterpart
and believes that a written agreement may not be forthcoming in the near
future. He also claims that the DRV desires their own form of an "Opera-
tion Enhance" to include heavy equipment such as dirt movers, cranes,
medicines, water pumps, detection devices, tractors and trucks.
Ceasefire Violations
-- For your violations bar graph, there were 17 major and 149 minor
violations recorded during the 24 hour period ending at 1700 EST February
15.
SECRET
.. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
S E CRET -3-
-- Sullivan noted that the activist GVN position on the negotiations
was an excellent one. It was important for U. S. public opinion to believe
that the GVN was anxious to move ahead, while the PRG was reluctant,
and Lam said this was the GVN intention.
Four Party Joint Military Commission
-- Two members of.the DRV'.s regional FPJ'MC.dele.gation.in Hue were
harassed without injury by a crowd of young Vietnamese, and a tear gas
grenade was set off inside the Communist compound in Saigon. Also on
February 15, wire services reported that GVN military police blocked
the chiefs of the Indonesian and Canadian ICCS delegations and numerous
correspondents from attending a PRGJMC reception in Saigon.
ICCS
-- At the February 15 plenary session, the political, military and
administrative committees were upgraded from provisional to official
status,
-- In a February 14 conversation with Ambassadors Bunker and Sullivan,
Canadian ICCS Delegation Head Gauvin assessed progress to date as
satisfactory and said that relations between delegations were cordial and
that no rigid positions have emerged.
-- Embassy Ottawa reports that Minister for External Affairs Sharp
is considering a visit to Saigon prior to the GOC's decision on ICCS
participation beyond the initial 60-day period.
Mine Countermeasures
-- The Commander of our mine sweeping operation in Haiphong has
reported a slowdown of progress in negotiations with his DRV counterpart
and believes that a written agreement may not be forthcoming in the near
future. He also claims that the DRV desires their own form of an "Opera-
tion Enhance" to include heavy equipment such as dirt movers, cranes,
medicines, water pumps, detection devices, tractors and trucks.
Ceasefire Violations
-- For your violations bar graph, there were 17 major and 149 minor
violations recorded during the Z4 hour period ending at 1700 EB"T February
15.
ECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
SECRET -4-
Withdrawal and Redeployment of US/FWMAF
-- From an in-country total of 23, 516* U. S. troops on January 27,
7, 772 were reported withdrawn by 1600 EST February 15.
-- From an in-country total of 35, 396 ROK troops on January 27,
11, 242 were reported withdrawn by 1600 EST February 15.
POWs
-- Returning U.S. POWs have told escorts that they "cheered B-52
raids until they were hoarse" and have stated their conviction that massive
bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong was the principal factor in North Vietnam's
capitulation.
-- Forty former U. S. POWs returned to Travis AFB on 14 and 15
February.
-- At the FPJMC Sub-Commission meeting on 15 February, the U. S.
delegate proposed that the DRV release the 20 POWs which they have
agreed return ahead of schedule on 17 February, The DRV delegate
assented provided Hanoi can complete arrangements by then and gave
February 18 as an alternate date.
-- A total of 1, 939 VC POWs and 775 NVA POWs have been reported
as being released/ repatriated during the period 12-15 February..
Thieu-Sullivan Meeting
-- On February 14 President Thieu told Ambassador Sullivan that
three months would be sufficient to reach a political settlement but if
no agreement was reached or if solution were unacceptable, North Vietnam
might launch massive attacks in one or two locations to test U. S. reac -
Lions. Thieu expressed dissatisfaction with the number of GVN POWs
listed by the Communists and the PRG's failure to produce a list of
civilian detainees. He added that U. S. willingness to retaliate, con-
tinuing (U.S. ) assistance and Sino-Soviet cooperation with the. agreement
are the only guarantees for a peace in South Vietnam.
Internatioxnl Conference
-- The Chinese Ambassador at the United Nations reportedly has
told the British that UN Secretary General Waldheim should by no means
tiadjusted total
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
SECRET -5-
act as chairman of the Paris Conference on Vietnam but that the U. S.
and the DRV should serve as co-chairmen.
Diplomatic
-- The Peking People's Daily has issued its first charges of ceasefire
violations against South Vietnam since the signing of the ceasefire. In a
February 15 article, the paper claimed that North Vietnam has "strictly
implemented" the Paris Agreement, but that the "Saigon authorities have
taken despicable means of all descriptions to deliberately violate and
sabotage the agreements" (e. g. continued "nibbling operations, " delayed
release of military and civilian prisoners, and obstruction of the Joint
Military Commission.) The article noted resolute Chinese support for
the DRV/PRG charges and concluded that the U.S. government has the
"responsibility of enjoining the Saigon authorities to observe and implement
the Agreement earnestly, "
-- Following a one day meeting in Kuala Lumpur, the ASEAN Foreign
Ministers issued a communique which "welcomed" the Vietnam Agreement,
"recognized the desirability" of convening another conference of all South-
east Asean countries in the future and of expanding the membership of
ASEAN.
- - The military situation in Laos remains generally unchanged, but
combat intensified as Communist forces strongly resisted friendly
advances in the Panhandle east of Thakhek and in the Muong Phalane
area. Government forces nearly completed operations to clear out re-
maining enemy units in Paksong.
-- Singificant North Vietnamese logistic activity continues in Laos, but
no new personnel groups have been detected since January 16. During the
past week, truck activity reached its highest level this dry season. There
is indirect evidence that some of these supplies are moving into South
SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4
SECRET -6 -
Vietnam's MR I. Also, intercepted messages indicate that NVA
logistic units are making preparations for continuirg activity after
a ceasefire in Laos.
Cambodia
-- Heavy fighting was reported in Cambodia along Routes 15 and 1, east of
the Mekong. Friendly counterattacks appear to have stalled, but the enemy
reportedly failed to make new gains. Route 2 south of Phnom Penh remains
cut and enemy pressure against Kampot has increased.
-- President Lon Nol reportedly has told Sirik Matak that he still is
pressing for his appointment as Vice President and that a visiting U. S.
neurosurgeon has encouraged his plans to come to the United States for
another operation in the near future.
SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2012/04/03: LOC-HAK-31-1-1-4