MEMO FOR GENERAL SCOWCROFT(SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 9, 2009
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: July 31, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
SECRET/SENS1TTV9/EYES, ONLY
TOHAK-
TO: BREMER/RODMAN FOR GENERAL SCOWCRO "T
FROM: BUD ttFARLANE
Bob Oakley asked that the attached Inessa
Warm regards
MORI/CDF Pages 2-5 per
C03208576
SECRET/SENSV,V'EJEYES ONLY
CODEWORD ATTACWMENT
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
SECRET /SENSITIVE (XGDS)
WITH TOP SECRET CODEWORD ATTACHMENT
INFORM&TION
(Outside System)
July 31, 1975
GENERAL SCOWCROFT
ROBERT B. OAKLEY
1 - In the events surrounding the UNEF renewal exercise, as well as
in the Egyptian performance at the Jidda Conference, there have been signs
of increasing nervousness and impatience by Sadat (and other Arabs)
with the slow pace of negotiations, Israeli toughness on various aspects
SECRET /SENSITIVE (XGDS) XGDS - 3 Determine
-No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09 _LOC-HAK-264-5_23-8
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SECRET/ SENSITIVE (XGDS) WITH TOP SECRET CODEWORD ATTACHMENT
of the negotiations, and with Israeli public -statements. The Egyptians
did not really consult with us before taking the UNEF action, although we
had been warned at an earlier date. Nor did they really oppose the
Israeli suspension move at Jidda, after telling us they would. The
combination of recent Israeli negotiating positions, public statements
and private dema.rches to Western European governments can be expected
to aggravate seriously Egyptian nervousness and impatience. It may also
further diminish their willingness to be frank with us.
3 - The Israelis are already quite nervous over what they believe
to be Egyptian buildups on the East Bank and on the West Bank close to
the Canal, following on the increased alert connected with UNEF renewal.
C'G'f"D 'G?T /Qr TCTTTITV.. TRTTTTT "rC\T cT. t-o""T 1 ( 1V ' xrr~n ) ATTACHMENT
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
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SECRET/ SENSITIVE (XGDS) - 3
WITH TOP SECRET CODEWORD ATTACHMENT
They are naturally suspicious of a repetition of the surprise of
October 1973 and determined not to allow a repeat.
We should never forget that in mid-1973 while Sadat ran out the
diplomatic string he was preparing for the military action of October.
Despite the relative military weakness of the Egyptian army and the
miserable Egyptian economic situation, both of which argue against war,
he is basically a man of great pride capable of acting decisively in what
we would consider an irrational way. (Ambassador Eilts will presumably
be able to provide an up-to-date assessment of Sadat's present mood and
you all will no doubt review with him the chances of renewed hostilities.)
We should also not forget the presence within the Israeli leadership, as
well as the Likud, of a body of thought which would opt for a preemptive
strike rather than run any risk of again being surprised militarily.
Sam Hoskinson and I have been concerned for several days over
the possibility that Sadat's patience in diplomacy mikht run out before too
long and that he would begin to prepare actively for the military alternative.
As a result CIA already has underway an intensive study of all intelligence
indications related to this possibilit
The CIA assessment should be ready tomorrow.
SECRET SENSITIVE XGDS WITH TOP SECRET CODEWORD ATTACHMENT
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
SECRET/SENSITIVE (XGDS) -4-
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Att: TS Codeword Page 6 - 7/30/75 0300 - 0300 EDT 31 July 1975
SECRET/SENSITIVE (XGDS)
WITH TOP SECRET CODEWORD ATTACHMENT
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2009/12/09: LOC-HAK-264-5-23-8