I. INTRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-257-5-14-6
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 31
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 14
• Content Type: REPORT

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/04/27: LOC-HAK-257-5-14-6
a's(Ati*NSIIIVE
I. INTRODUCTION
1. The military balance among the three contending
nationalist groups in Angola has recently shifted
favor of Agostinho Neto's Popular Movement for the Libera-
tion of Angola (MPLA), thanks to an influx of arms from
the USSR. via Congo.
2. Neto is strong among urban dwellers and among
the Kimbundu tribes which surround Luanda. He has
exploited his newly found weapons superiority to press
his military advantage around the capital. He is pushing
Roberto's forces back into their tribal lands and is
strong enough militarily to defeat, if he chose, the
Savimbi forces around Luanda who are relatively unarmed.
3. The lightly armed forces of the National Front
for the Liberation of Angola (FNLA) led by Holden Roberto
do not seem able to cope with the better armed MPLA.
The FNLA has serious leadership weaknesses at the middle
level and, based as it is on the Bakongo tribes of
northern Angola, faces difficulty in building a following
throughout Angola.
4. The National Union for the Total Independence STAT
of Angola (UNITA) led by Jonas Savimbi is based on the
WARNING NOTICE
SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
AND METHODS INVOLVED
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numerically large Ovimbundu tribes. UNITA enjoys
large following in eastern and southern Angola. Its
leadership appears dynamic. Savimbi is recruiting new
forces but does not now have sufficient arms for the
men he has in training.
5. Given the tribal and political makeup of Angola,
we believe that even a large influx of arms to Roberto
and Savimbi would probably not enable them to eliminate
the MPLA as a political force. Without some help to
Roberto and Savimbi however, there is a strong possi-
bility that the MPLA might seize control of the capital
and its surrounding region. Without gaining control of
the whole country, the MPLA could claim "victory'
and
set itself up as a central government even though it,
would then face protracted civil war.
6. If we cannot with any assurance expect to be
able to provide Roberto with the means to vanquish the
MPLA, we could through help to Roberto and to Savimbi
adjust the balance so as to prevent a Neto "victory."
This could lead to some form of coalition in which a
Savimbi-Roberto alliance would have a strong position.
Such an outcome would reduce thereafter the prospects of
SEVITFEETIVE
A
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r raw,* ir1ITitt
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civil war and prevent the emergence of an MPLA-authoritarian
one-party regime with close ties to the Communist world.
SECRET/SENSITIVE
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III. OBJECTIVES AND PROSPECTS
'
1. Our primary objective is to prevent a Neto
takeover and the establishment of an MPLA-controlled
state with close Communist ties.
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? 2. We also share the interest of Savimbi and
Roberto in avoiding a protracted civil war in Angola,
even if it means that the MPLA remains the third party
of a three-party government. Up to now, together Savimbi
and Roberto enjoy support not only from Mobutu and Kaunda
but other of the non-radical leaders of Africa as well.
Savimbi also appeals to some elements in the new Portu-
guese regime. These are potential resources which could
be brought into play toward the establishment of a govern-
ment in which they occupied prominent roles.
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