"OUTLINES OF A NEW AMERICAN PRESENCE IN VIETNAM"

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2011
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: December 13, 1972
• Content Type: CABLE

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
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O ~31A~f9x DEC 72 ZYH ZFF4 ZFFZ
FM THE WHITE HOUSE T OHA Kl SG
ZEM
U~ICL AS
TOHA K i 8P~
WN~9889
DELIVER IMMEDIATELY
FM THE SITUATION ROOM
TO PETEG RC7gMAN FOR DR. KISSINGER
OUTLINES OF A NEW AMERICAN PRESENCE TN VIETNAM"
?x LESLIE H. GELS ANTS ANTHONY LAKE: GELS IS A VISITING PROFESSOR AT
(~ORGETF~N t3NIVERSITY AND A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE BRRKINGS INSTITEiTION.
LAKE IS CURREACtLY WORKING ON FOREIGN POLICY' BOOKS ,FOR THE CARNEGIE
E NDOWi~E~1T FOR. INTERNATIONAL PEACE A@~D Tk~E COUNCIL 4N FOREIGN
REL AT Ions.
3. YOU CAN ALMOST HEAR A NATIONAL SIGH OF RELIEF THAT WE ARE NEARING
THE END G1F OUR ROAD IN VIETNAM. BUT, AN AGREEMENT Iii PARIS WILL ONLY
MEAN, IN FACT, THAT WE HAVE ARRIVAD AT ANEW CROSSROAD: WILL WE TAKE
THIS GREAT OPPORTU~fITY TO DECLARE PEACE AND GET OUT OF VIETNAM? OR
WILL WE FIND WAYS TO STAY IN, AND GO ON DOWN THE OLD ROAD OF SUPPORT
Ff~t SAIGON?
THE APPR OACH OF A CEASE FIRE AGREEMENT LS SETTING OF.F ALARM BELLS
ALL OVER VIETNA~9. THEY ARE WARNIAIG THAT A GEASE~FIRE WILL ROT .BRING
iF~At:E, BUT A NEW PHASE OF THE OLD STRUGGLE. BOTH VIETNAMESE SIDES
ARE GIRDING= cna rum rnmrur: rn~rfwcs_
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS
APPLY
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 THIS ALARM HAS ALSO BEEN HEARD IN THE PENTAGON, THE STATE DEPART-
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
ME NT, AND THE U. S. MISSION IN VIETNAM. EVIDENCE MOUNTS THAT THEY
ARE PREPARING TO MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE COMMITMENT TO THE THIEU REGIME.
SO ONCE AGAIN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT IS DECIDING FOR
W1~IG~l ROA@ wE fiMALL TARE, W~ITMDUT THE Ct~NSTFiAI~iT OF NATIONAL. .
DEBATE. AND THERE IS NO SIGN THAT ALARMS ABOUT. U. S. POST-CEASE-FIRE
PQ.ICIES ARE READY TO GO DFF IN CONGRESS.
WHILE ALL EYES ARE ON PARIS, HERE IS WHAT RELIABLE NEWS SOURCES
SAY IS GOING ON IN VIETNAM:
HANOI AND ITS SOUTHERN ALLIES ARE TAKING A NUMBER OF STEPS TQ
CONTINUE THE STRUGGLE. NORTH. VIETNAMESE TROOPS MAY BE FOLDED INTO
VIETCONG UNITS TO DISGUISE THEIR FRESENCE. THESE. UNITS NAVE BEEN
ISSUED BIRDERS T O RELY Mt)RE HEAVILY DN CAPTURED AMERICAN WEAPONS,.
SO THAT THEY AS WELL AS THE SAIGON REGIME CAN LIWE OFF AMERICAN
SI)PPLIES--AS THEY DID IN THE LATE 'SGS AND EARLY '6f~5.
THE SAIGON GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN MAKING WHOLESALE ARRESTS OF ANX AND
ALL "SUSPECTED WIETCONG.'" THIEU' S ADMINISTRATIVE CADRES ARE TOURING
THE COUNTRYSIDE TO SPEED PREPARATIONS AGAINST ANEW' OUTBREAK OF
C~'7MUNIST .POLITICAL AND QUASI-MILITARY ACTIVITY. AMASSIWE INFLUX
(F' AMERICAN ARMS IS BEING DISTRIBUTED.
MEANWHILE,. U. S. PLANNERS ARE PUTTING TOGETHER TO OUTLT~IES OF A
~iEW AMERICAN PRESENCE IN VIETNAM TO SUPPORT THE SAIGON GOVERNMENT
AFTER OUR TROOPS HAVE LEFT. IT REPORTEDLY WOULD INCLUDE:
CA) TEN THOUSAt~ AMERICAN CIVILIAN TECHNICIANS AND ADVISORS,' MANY
UNDER U. S. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT CONTRACTS, TO WORK WITH SAIGON' S
ARMED FORCES. (AD VERT ISEMENT S FOR THESE SOBS HAVE BEEN PLACED I N
ENGLISH LANGUAGE NEWSPAPERS IN SAIGON, PRESUMABLY TO RECRUIT
RETIRING U. S. MILITARY PERSA~NEL):
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
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 R DS OF MILITARY ATTACHES ASSIGNED TO THE EMBASSY;
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
CC) FOUR CONSULATE GENERALS TO Rk:PLAGL EXi~TiNG ftEG1aNAL U. S.
HEAD QUARTERS.
CD) ADVISORY TEAMS AT THE PROVINCE LEVEL AS WELL;
C E) ONE THOUSAND A. I. D. PERSONNEL;
CF) ONE HUNDRED VIETNAMESE OR FRENCH-SPEAKING FOREIGN SERVICE
ff FIGERS ON TEMPORARY REASSIG LAMENT TO VTETNAM~ REPORTING ON THE
SIT UAT I ON I N THE COUNTRYSIDE;
C~ AND A LARGE-SCALE MTtIY'AR~C "AID P1~~8R'AM, IR THE W.S. SUGCEE~S
IN REMOVING .THE REQUIREMENT OF THE OCTOBER AGREE~9ENT THAT MILITARY
RESUPPLY TARE PLACE ONLY ON A ONE-FOR-ONE BASES.
IN SHORT, THE UNITED STATES IS GEARING UP TO D0 ALL IT CAN
FOR THIEUs EXCEPT FOR THE DIRECT USE OF AMERICAN MILITARY
FORCES.
IT MAY SEEM NATURAL THAT WASHINGTON WOULD WANT TO TAKE WHATSTEPS
A CAN AFTER A CEASE- FIRE TD IMPROVE THIEU' S CHANCES FOR SURVIVAL.
AFTER ALL, MANY WILL ARGUE, WHY NOT MAKE SOME NEW FAIRLY MARGINAL
INVESTMENTS IN THE SITUATION, SINCE WE HAVE DONE S0 MUCH IN THE PAST?
~t Y NOT G 0 THIS ONE LAST' MILE, WHEN WE HAVE WORKED SO LONG IN
SAIGON'S BEHALFZ
THE .DANCER IS THAT MAINTAIDIING A LARGE AMERICAN PRESENCE IN
VIETNAM GIVES A HOSTAGE TO THE FUTURE. THIEU WOULD THEN HAVE LESS
INCENTIVE TO REACH AN ACCOMMODATION WITH THE VIETCONG, SO THE
FIGHTING WOULD ~1.ARE UP AT 50 ME POTFIT- RAISING THE ISSUE OF AMERICAN
MILITARY REINVOLVEMENT. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT WILL STILL BE POISED ON
C~'F-SNORE CARRIERS AND AT BASES IN THAILAND TO COME TO THIEU' S
RESCUE. WHEN THE PRESIDENT TF FACED WITH A DECISION TO SEND THE
EC'lMBERS BACK OVER INDOCHINA, THE PRESENCE OFSSO MANY AMERICANS IN
VIETNAMS COULD. TIP THE ODDS TOWARDS MILITARY RETNVOLVEMENT. WE WOULD
THEN BE BACg TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY.
IN THE PAST, THE CONGRESS HAS SOMETIMES SUPPORTED AND SOMETIMES
~~, ,~~, * ~, *,,,.,, _ No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0
 NEVER A(-iT+No;Objectio+ to Declassificatio~in~Part2011/12/02~~LOGHAK-248-2~4-0 SHAPE
FUTURE VIETNAM POLICIES NOW, IT CAN HAVE NO ONE TO BLAME
13UT ITSELF IF THINGS GO WRONG LATER.
THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR THE NEXT CONGRESS SHOULD BE TO
HUl..D HEARINGS, IN THE' HOUSE AND IN THE SENATE, ON WHAT IS GOING
Eiii IN IND~JCHINp. THE PROBLEM WILL NOT BE THE TERMS OF THE" PEACE
AGREEMENTS HUT THE ACTIONS OUR GOVERNMENT IS TAKING WITHTN THE
CONTEXT OF THE AGREEMENT. THE CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES NEED TO ASK
SUCH QUEST IONS AS: ARE WE STILL OBLIGED TO COMMIT AMERICAN FORCES
TO THIEF' S DEFENSE OR THE DEFENSE OF ANY OTHER ANTI-COMMUNIST
REGIME TN SAIGON? WHAT SAFEGt1ARDa CAN' THE. CONGRESS LEGISLATE
TO PREVENT AMERICAN MILITARY REINVOLVEMENT BEFORE IT BECOMES AN
ACCOMPLISHED FACT? WHO I5 PAYING THE BILL FOR THE AMERICAN CIVILIANS
ATTACHED TO THE SOUTH VIETNAMESE ARMED FORCES? WHAT EXACTLY WILL ALL
t~' THOSE U. S. MILITARY ATTACHES BE DOING? ARE THE PRESIDENT' S
POWERS AS COMMANDER- IN-CHIEF SUFFICIENT TO ORDER U. S. MILITARY FORCES
TO INTERVENE FOR THE PROTECTION OF THESE AMERICAN5 IN VIETNAM?
IF WE HAVE LSARNED ANYTHING AT ALL FROM OUR DECADE OF TRAGEDY
IN VIETNAM, IT IS THAT. WE OUGHT TO ASK SUCH QUESTIOdS BEFORE WE
PR OCEED, NOT AFTER. WE SHOULD XNOW BY NOW THAT IF ANYTHING CAN BE
WRONG IN VIETNAM, IT WILL.
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2011/12/02 : LOC-HAK-248-2-4-0