WE KNOW THAT A NUMBER OF SYRIAN REGULAR TROOPS ARE ALREADY IN LEBANON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2010
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 24, 1976
• Content Type: MISC

WE `KNOW THAT A NUMBER OF SYRIAN REGULAR TROOPS ARE
THAT THY, HAVE.SIIGCESSFULLY DISGUESED THE PRESENCE OF
NOT SO FAR OBJECTED ..m PRESUMI. SLY THE SYR I ANS. MAY THINK
ALREADY IN LEBANON. ? THE ,; I SRAEL I S ARE ALSO AWARE. AMID HAVE
T E. R. REGULAR: TROOPS AS PALESTINIANS, BUT SHOULD THEY .
THE ISRAELIS BE PREPARED ? TO ALLOW TI' I S ON CERTAIN
C014DI.TIO IS,. IN PARTICULAR, THAT THEY. ,KEPT WELL AWAY FROM
TQ :SEND ICI MORE REGULAR TROOPS.. ;MOULD
SYR 1 Ate tNTE^ITi ON
THEIR WORRY ABOUT ISRAELI REACTI0', S. I T MAY ALSO. BE THE
HAV TO USE THEM, THEIR PRESENCE. WOULD BECOME i11':f-+` N 9 HENCE
TO: RI~SC~RT TO 4T1IER I?4EASURES I F SYRIA DID NOT END THE
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15 : LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
T'r{ SOUTH?
.c. PRES*IDENNIT FRANGIE IS REPORTED TO HAVE TELEPHONED
PRESIDENT ASA'AD IW.DESPERATIGN YESTERDAY THREATENING
FOREIGN M I N I. STEP .~' " AMt4UN I T I OFI WAS RUNNING OUT. AND
D FORMER
CHARLES MAL I K (MEMBER OF KASL I lC GROUP A,11
FIGHTING BY DIRECT.MILITARY? INTERVENTION!. THIS
,REFLECTS CHRISTIAN 'M I L..ITARY SETBACKS. YESTERDAY
RECEIVED AN IhPASSiONED. PLEA FOR WESTERN HELP FROM
LEBANON'S FINAL HOUR HAD SOME. ASA'AD SEEMS' TO HAVE
BRING ABOUT A CEASE FIRE AND TO MED I ATE 9TH S)UMBLATT. .
REACTED BY PUTTING,-PRESSURE ON ARAFAT TO HELP
ABU I YAD HAS. GO? E .O DAMASCUS -THIS MORNING.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
REGULAR TROOPS IN LEB?ANON.?,. OUR ESTIMATE IS THAT THE FORCES
OF SA. I QA, P L A A N D S Y R I A N SYR I API REGULARS ARE SUFFICIENT TO ENFORCE
A CEASE FIRE PROVIDED FATAH COOPERATE, AS THEY SEES
WILLINT TO DO AT PRESEiT. iF THE SYRIANS HAVE MORE FAR,
REACHING PLANS SUCH- AS?SORTING OUT THE REFUSAL FRO"T
GROUPS: HERE, OBVIOUSLY THEY. CANNOT RELY SO MUCH OAq
FATAH COOPERATION. if I SS I.NGER' S QUESTIONS TO THE SYR i AI?'S
IN PARR: 3t.t 1) ARE HIGHLY RELEVANT. AND IT WOULD BC
INTERESTING TO KNOW ?.;THE ANSWERS.
ITSELF FRO 1 THE SYRIAN. POLITICAL SETTLEMEr T H AS CO:; `L I GATED
THE. SITUATION HERE. THIS TOGETHER WITH STRO'C IRAQI EFFORTS
TO SABOTAGE A SETTLEMENT 'MAY HAVE PERSUADED THE
SYRIANS THAT THEY NEED MORE REGULAR FORCES. FOR, T iE JOB.
WOULD THE US GOVERNMENT AND POSSIBLY OURSELVES COI; f"EMPLATE
RECOMMENDING RESTRAINIT TO THE.EGYPTIANS ON THE GRO ;DS THAT THEIR
ACTIO S WILL Et TIER. GIVE FURTHER OPPORTUtl I TI ES FOR LEFT--
=!t'."3 FORCES I N LEBANON TO STRENGTHEN THEIR POSIT 10L, AND/OR
4. RECENT EGYPTI AN ENCOURAGEMENT OF FATAH TO DISSOCIATE
WAKEF I ELD
" 24 t A*r Z.
Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
LEAD TO STRONGER SYRIAN MILITARY I NTERVEt?!T I ON?.
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
THE SECRETARY
RAMSBOTHAM SENT THESE OVER
FOR YOUR INFORMATION. HE
ALSO WANTS TO TALK TO YOU
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
Paul.
4:30 PM
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15 :
LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
Just arrived: Callaghan report on his
discussion with Gromyko.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15 :
LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
HILIP/CAT A
F'M FCC 241830Z
Ur.,.P E T
EYES ONLY
TO FLASH WASH I N!GTON TELEGRAM NO 627 OF 2l4 MARCH
INFO IMMEDIATE BE i RUT, DAMASCUS, TEL AVIV, PARIS,
PRs'ORITY CAIRO, *IAN, MOSC0k'!, UKMIS NEW YORK,.
YOUR TELEGRAM NO 104i.O; LEBANOINI.
1. FOR OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION PLEASE SEE f`'1Y I MMEI) I ATELY
FOLLOWING TELEGRAM.
2~ AS NOTED IN MY TELEGRAM NO (21, I SRI EFLY MENTIONED OUR REPORT
OF SYRI At,-,l INTENTIONS TO GROMYKO THIS 'ORNI,!G, IN ORDER TO GIVE HIM
A CHANCE TO CHECK WITH MMOSCO';W;, AND HE CON[ ENTED THAT HE HAD HEARD
RUMOURS TO THE SAME EFFECT. WE AGREED TO TREVERT TO THE SUBJECT, I N
VERY RESTRICTED SESSION, BEFORE THE RESUMP TI ON OF OUR PLENARY 'T'ALKS
THIS AFTERNOON. I SAID ;"THEN THAT WHILE OUR I 'FO; MATI ON WAS NOT
FIPM EITHER, I ''i/AS BASED ON MOTE THAN RUMOUR AND THAT WE FELT
i '~iN 'ter Tn I ^``r\, ''S L Y
UN CC R ST Y I HA, H? GH4T ` B C'. E
1 t. f'. c i i A
EVI SYRIAN REGULAR TROOPS IN LEBANON ALREADY (I HAD INS! MIND SEIRUT
TELEGRAM NO /i75) BUT WHAT 'rWWE: /ERE CONCERNED A`50UT WAS THE POSSIBILITY
OF THEIR SENDING IN SUESTANTI;A-;I_ F?ELI FORCEMENTS. IN OUR VIEW THIS
COULD WELL PROVOKE AN ISRAELI MOVE I N`I'O SOUTH LEBANON. THE
CONSEQUENCES OF SUCH A DEVELOPMENT WERE UNPREDICTABLE, BUT THEY
COULD INCLUDE A SYRIA/ISRAEL. CLASH, WHICH I Nei TURN COULD SPARK
OFF A WIDER CONFLICT, WITH THE GRAVEST RIS'V-, TO INTER'I',.ATIONAL PEACE
AND THE. IN1ERESTS OF THIRD PARTIES. I SAID WE ~%IOULD USE '1/HAT
IPIFL?UElN CE WE HAD '';JI TH TH I SRAE'L I S TO PREVENT AN ESCALATION, AND
URGED GROMYKO TO DO H I S BEST TO RESTRAIN THE SYRIANS. THERE WERE
OF COURSE DANGERS I N BOTH DIRECTIONS., I E- I i THE SYRIANS FIELD BACK
THE PRESENT TACTICS OF THE EXTREMIST NAT ONAL I ST FORCES MIGHT
CAUSE THE F I G H T I N G TO GET OUT OF HAND. BUT ON THE WHOLE WE FELT
THAT THE DEVIL WE KNEW WAS PREFERABLE TO THE CERTAINTY OF ISRAELI
INTERVENTION FOLLOWING UPON A MAJOR SYRIAN INCURSION.
:DI S 'j-.'.RTDT_ .'ION GROTY'1YI111O
CIL'' ?'3CFRY ?TJMllPFM (CID,/~11~ K)
A.' 11,11 I B COPY ITO 12
1052? IS.D
SECRET
(COPIES TO
P ? C .S) ?y I'l0 1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
J
l N
GROri'KO SAID
HE DID NOT WISH TO QUESTION MY INFORMATION, AND
WAS ONLY SAYING THAT THE REPORTS HE HAD RECEIVED COULD NOT BE
CONSIDERED RELIABLE. THEY WERE BASED ON RUMOURS EMANATING FROM
CERTAIN CIRCLES I N THE ARAB WORLD, AND SINCE THEY HAD BE EN PA E SD, TO
HIM FROM MOSCOW OVERNIGHT THEY MIGHT BE ALREADY OUT OF DATE. HE
ADDED THAT THE RUSSIANS HAD BEEN UNHAPPY ABOUT THE PREVIOUS
SITUATION I N LEBANON AND THE SURROUNDING AREA, ALTHOUGH THEY AGREED
IT WAS FRAUGHT WITH DANGER. HE UNDERTOOK TO TRY TO GET IN TOUCH
WITH "SOME PEOPLE IN' ARAB COUNTRIES'' TO URGE MODERATION, BUT IT
WAS HARD TO SAY WHAT EFFECT THIS COULD ACHIEVE'. HE HOPED THAT WE
FOR OUR PART WOULD TAKE STEPS TO INJECT ELEMENTS OF MODERATION
INTO THE SITUATION. HE SAID, WITH FORCE AND APPARENT SINCERITY, THAT
I T WOULD BE EXTREMELY UNDESIRABLE I F EVENTS GOT OUT OF CONTROL
- NO-ONE WANTED THIS NOR SHHOULD HAVE ANY INTEREST. I Na IT.
`. GROMYKO ALSO ASKED FOR OUR VIEWS AS TO FLOW THE PROBLEM MIGHT
BBE RESOLVED. I T WAS ALL VERY WELL TO URGE MODERATION, UT WHAT
W,1ERE THE CHANCES, OF GFTT I NG RE.4D LT.'- ~ 1 `~ T, ROvU?H Kinon WORDS AND G0'1- D
~.r ~a 7 t 7 _1~ u. y Ia/ ~7 IV 1J ;,7V 4ll
E I ES':' HE COULD NOT HELP T. i NK I NG THAT ',,'HAT HAD ST AE- T D Aga AN
INTER IAL AFFAIR HAD BECOME INTERNATIONALISED OWING TO EXTERNAL
INTERVENTIQ"' WITH THE RIVAL LEBANESE FACTIONS. I DID NOT DISPUTE
'THIS, BUT POINTED OUT THAT THE LEBANESE PARTIES THEMSELVES TENDED
TO INVOKE OUTSIDE ASSISTANCE AND THE RESULT, IF NOT SELF-CANCELLING,
WAS MESSY AND CONFUSED. HO'WV:EVER WE BEL I EVED' THAT THE SYRIANS HAD
ON THE WHOLE PLAYED A RESPONSIBLE ROLE, AND THOUGHT THAT THEY
MIGHT STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF BRINGING OFF A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT,
PERHAPS THROUGH TOMORROW'S PROCEEDINGS I N THE LEBANESE PARLIAMENT.
GROMYKO DID NOT OFFER MUCH COMMENT ON THE INTERNAL SITUATION,
AND I HAD THE IMPRESSION THAT HE MIGHT NOT HAVE.- BEEN TOO WELL
BRIEFED ON IT.
5. IN GENERAL I THOUGHT GROMYKO'S REACTION WAS FAIRLY SATISFACTORY,
AND I HOPE K I SS I NGER WILL F I N D I T USEFUL. I SUGGESTED THAT HE SHOULD
GET I N TOUCH WITH THE AMERICANS TO EXCHANGE VIEWS, AND POSSIBLY
ALSO WITH THE FRENCH IN VIEW OF THEIR TRADITIONAL INTEREST IN
LEBANON. HE READILY AGREED, AND REPEATED THAT A MAJOR
(,,,DNFLAGRATI OBI WOULD BE DISASTROUS AND THAT WE MUST ALL GET ON WITH
I,ECTING ELEMENTS OF MODERATION.
CALLAGHAN
,TLLi.L'
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
1. THE STATE DEPARTMENT WILL OF COURSE HAVE SEEN! OUR
LATEST INTELLIGENCE ASSESS"-LENT DATED 23 itARCH? S 1 MOE THEN FURTHER REPORTS FROM 3% 1 ;UT AND TEL iAV I V (BEIRUT TE _.'1O4 I
75 AID AND TEL AV i V TELNO 6), ON \;IH I CH YOU MAY 1-ALSC)
D 2THESE LATE ST REPORTS I r, D 1 CATE THAT SYRIAN REGULAR T" 00 PS
ARE ALREADY I N LEBANON AND OUR, ESTIMATE-1 I S THAT' THEY, T O E HER
'kJITH SA;QA AND THE PLO, MAY BE JUST SUFFICIENT TO ENFORCE A CEASE
RE PROV I DED THAT FATAH CO--OPi";'ATE AS THEY SEEM WI LL 1 1,10 TO 0 T
PRESENT.
eE ' ~T Si ', - rHER THE SYRIAN MESSAGE TJ D r; I; S (;''`' t
..M W WE .. r"~ l \ !'' ~i I -- V 1 ! ._. \ [.- ~,.~ A U ...
1N! D; CAI"ED T"H;h.T THEY ':',''ERE TE' 1 Nil I MG OF 'MASS i VE OPEN RE_ i'.'F'O CEEiN.i., ;.?
THEIP EXISTIN F~iEiuES IPA Lt '~til0i`!"' MAY NOT THEIH APPROACH TO
m AM 1'L-RICAN B i IHHHCOTIVATED P R I M A R I L Y BY FEAR THAT 11-IE ` I-F TION
1S SLIPPINf. OUT i.%I= Fit, iEIP CO 1-ROL AND A. `H IO 02...IA1N E=CL.I I"ICAI.,
HEL FROM iE E i, r ,R T IC11b_A RLY , U,!,; L ISINC r:iE IS;;, L:t_,
3v THE. I PARL I i'IF.:ACT10N TO THE -YP ( AM APPROAC!?'i TO THE AH`lER I CANS
ALSO SE rA i3 I T EXCESS I'vE ;LTHOUG', THE ISRAEL GOVE!;RNM S
" r.... 0 1 i GED TO EAR c' OH
STAND ?,'G 1 C) L. r t 0,.,f TH { r1 7 1I H 1 ~. '-'1T, 1 H ~.
: la I J l : ,:~ l 1' G n C` v ! . t.~
1 Y TO Rr P E I- 1T I(~ I. till -1"~I A I': THE' rE w P T i U; I _S
ST( Oo:G;I.,,r" S Y , ,~G I lv i r,, 1 ~. :t V ~.T'.~ I TI,,IC:'~;
I Vl0"ID)EFR 1ETHER THE I SRAEL I S COULD NOT PERSUADED T HA T A
I.JEE 1I S 'S I.. - I..; rl
GREATER ! R'LE: E- OF S SYRIA .( N F ` ,/ E 1` : .T. ( ON I N !0 N P S i
i , N L .. i35 : '~ t a"..~ v :] s,. ~ ?,
ra? i ; .1 C
HREAT TO, THI M TH A N E I TH R ONTI N: UED AN AL R C 1 `,11 THERE: 0R THE EMEGE--vE
AN AUTHORITY I Psi S "")UTH LE BANON ER TO '~N!C0URAGE III! UERRI LL A
ATTACKS ON 13) RAL Ar D IMPERVIOUS TO T H E SORT OF SANCTIONS !:'JH I G' 1-i
THE ISRAELIS CAN APPLY AGAINST S Y R I A 01? A REICONS ITUTED LEB'?NE
G0VERN MEI'T? MIGHT THE S R A E L i S BE PREPARED 1-0 ALLOW MORE SYRIAN
TROOPS TO ENITER LEBAIN0N ON THE UNIDERSTANDIM'., THAT 11IEY KEPT W 1-L
AV1AY FROM THE SOUTH?
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
C,o sess . rT
rtllac'/ (q74
4 THE SITUATION '.1I TH I N LEBANON FLUCTUATES FROM DAY TO DAY.
THE SYRIAN E,"1! SSA,R I ES ARE BUSY TRYING TO ARRANGE ANOTHER CEASEFIRE
AND THE COMBATANTS I N BEIRUT ARE WEARY AND SHORT OF AMMUNITION.
I AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT I N THIS VERY COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN
SITUATION OUR BEST COURSE MAY BE TO TRY TO PLAY FOR TIME FOR A
LITTLE LONGER BY DISCOURAGING BOTH THE SYRIANS AND THE ISRAELIS
FROM EXTREME ACTIONS, IN THE HOPE THAT SYRIAN MEDIATION ATTEMPTS
MAY YET PROVE SUCCESSFUL.
CALLAGHAN
h4 2i+ISrio %
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
WE KNOW THAT A NUMBER OF SYRIAN HtE(aULAK i KUUVb ARE
ALREADY I N LEBANON. THE I S r.{ I S AM E ALSO AWARE AND HAVE
NC)., SO ',AR OBJECTED. PRE SU('MMA B Y T 3E SY'R I Ai! a Iii/AY THINK
THAT THEY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY D! SCHESED THE PRESENCE OF
T'FIEI R REGULAR TROOPS AS PALEST ('! I AN S, '3l.IT SHC'. LE) THEY
} fAE TO USE T ! il..r~.= (W 1 +..1 t C E..
~{ ~ TO UC`_ THEM, H Er.a rT~l~.S ..J i...:~ 71 W~)IIU L L..7 I~ E`_~~.^0 )I`n.,,E it T K N '. !S~ y I CU Io
E.1
THEIR, WC)'P,RY ABOUT ISRAELI RE::ACT1O"~'S IT MAY ALSO BE TiHE
IN '~i ~7 i E R ' E 7 ~..r ( , E, R T R t 01 .S WOUI..D
,~ , ...~, ~, ~ u.
I A1? f ' - C E -N, T? 10 N TO S D
THE ISRAELIS BE PREEPARED TO ALLOW TNiS ON CERTAIN
CL?il 'I TIO IS, IN PARTICUL AR, THAT THEY KEPT WELL A'r~.AY FHOH
Th SOUTH?.
2. PFESIDENT FRANGIE IS REPORTED TO HAVE TEL EPHO"BED
PRES; I DENT ASA' AL; I N DESPERATION YESTERTIJAY THREATENING
TO FESO RI TO OTHER i ,EASURES I F SYRIA DID NOT Ulf) THE
FIGHTING BY DIRECT MILITARY INTERVE~!1"!C'"!~ THIS
REFLECTS CHRISTIAN MILITARY :SETBACKS. YESTERDAY I
RECEIVED AID IMPASSIONED PLEA FOR WE:ESTERN HELP FROM
CHARLES MAL I K (MEMBER OF NASL I K GROUP AND FORME R
FOREIGN N'I{H''I STER). .AMMlWl;ITici`! WAS 't?I~NNING OUT AND
LEBANON'S FINAL HOUR HAD SOME. ASA' AD SE- EMS TO HAVE
REACTED BY PUTTING PRESSURE OH ARAFAT TO HELP
BR I1%!G ABOUT A CEASE FIR''- "+ND TO "'ED I ATE WITH JUM'BL ATT.
ABU I Y A D HAS GONE TO DAMASCUS T H I S M O R N I N G.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
R 4ev-r 'v r
TIt` Qt) MORE
~(tUE7 ON A~,~.~~~ rR+S : '~,,1: P. H i(-R ! ' 'Nr i`E
>. 17'10._?~ t,. TFiE: > t.,u
REGULAR TROOPS I t'; LFBAN0 OUP GET! 'i T I S THAT THE FORCES
OF SA I ;+A,x PLA Ati I) SYR1 AtU: i?EG ! ARS A~:LE SUiFE= I C I ENT TO ENFORCE
A cCEA`Sr. FIRE PROVIDED Ff',TA 1 C010'ERA i'L, AS THEY SEEM
WIC LINT TO DO AT PRESEP? , I TH SYRI A'NS HAVE M0R r AR
REACHING PLANS SUCH AS SORTING OUT THE REFUSAL FRONT
GROUPS HERE, OBVIOUSLY THEY r A'N!NO ]- RELY SO MUCH ON
FATAH C,001212 RAT! ON 1' I SS I I'OER S QUESsT! O?IS 'i0? THE SYRIANS
I N PAPA 3 ( 1 i ) A E H GHLY REL:-VAN-I ANTI I T ~' ~,ULD DE
A`'' ER
INTEi ESTIHG TO THE
. RECENT T EGYPTIAN ENCOURAGEMENT CF F ATAH TO DI SSOC I A T E
I SET..." FROM THE SYRIAN POL.ITICAL TTLEME'?'T HAS COis"fF LICATE!)
THE S I TUATI Ot`N HERE. THIS TOGETHER +I TH STRONG ! RAQI EFF=ORTS
TO SABOTAGE A SETTLEMENT MAY HAVE PERSUADED THE
SYRIANS THAT THE..Y NEED IORE REGULAR FORCES FOR THE JOB.
WOULD THE US GOVERNMENT AND ROSSI ELY OURSELVES CONTEMPLATE
RECOt'Ii'MENTD 111G RESTRAINT TOO THE EGYPT! ANS ON THE GROUNDS - HAT -i..ilEI P
ACTIONS `TWILL EI THER GIVE FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR LEFT--
WI NG FORCES i N LEBAt,!Oil, TO STRENGTHEN THE! P PO S 1' 1 Ole. AND/OR
LEAD TO STRONGER SYRIAN I L E TARY INTERVENTION?.
lvlA EEC I E.LD
24 roc c 7
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 EBA1,, No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
1. MR RABIN YESTERDAY MORNING GAVE MRS THATCHER
A DISPASSIONATE ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE LEBANON,
SAYING I N PARTICULAR THAT THE SYRIANS NOW APPEARED TO BE IN
ThiE SAME CAMP AS THE CHRISTIANS AND WERE USING THE SA I QA AND PLA
TO SUPPORT THEM. IN THE OTHER CAMP ARAFAT WAS RANGED WITH THE
LEFTISTS AND KHATI B' S !.AA. HE COMMENTED THAT THE ISRAELIS
THOUGHT THAT SOME SYRIAN TROOPS MIGHT RECENTLY HAVE ENTERED
THE LEBANON MASQUERADING AS SA I QA. HE SA i-D NOTHING TO SUGGEST
THAT THAT SITUATION WAS GIVING THE ISRAELIS ANY SPECIAL CONCERN.
2. LATER I N THE DAY MR ALLON SPOKE AT SOME LENGTH ABOUT THE
LEBANON TO MRS THATCHER. HE SAID THAT THE SYRIANS HAD NOW GOT
THEMSELVES INTO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFICULTIES, AND HE DEPLORED THE
HIGH CASUALTY RATE IN BEIRUT. BUT HE DID NOT DISPLAY ANY
SPECIAL ANXIETY ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS. (OUR TELEGRAM NO 23163OZ
TO MODUK INDICATES THAT THE ISRAELI MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AT
WORKING LEVEL YESTERDAY WERE ALSO RELATIVELY RELAXED.)
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7
SECRET
2.
EL A v1/ 1
3. MY IMPRESS I ON HAS HITHERTO BEEN THAT THE ISRAELI CABINET
MIGHT BE PREPARED TO LIVE WITH UNPUBLICISED INTERVENTION ON
A LIMITED SCALE BY SYRIAN FORCES. BUT A MAJOR OVERT INTERVENTION
WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DIFFERENT MATTER. ALTHOUGH SENIOR
MINISTERS MAY THEMSELVES HAVE BEEN THINKING (CF MY TELEGRAM
NO 70 TO FCO) THAT OBJECTIVELY THE SYRIANS ARE FOR THE
MOMENT ON THE RIGHT SIDE ON THE LEBANON, NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE
TO PREPARE PUBLIC.OP.INION TO ACCEPT THIS. IN JANUARY THE
GOVERNMENT SAID FIRMLY THAT THEY 'WOULD TAKE A MOST SERIOUS
VIEW OF ANY OPEN SYRIAN INTERVENTION (ALTHOUGH THEY WERE CAREFUL
NOT TO COMMIT THEMSELVES TO A MILITARY RESPONSE WITHIN LEBANON
AND THEY SUGGESTED THAT THEIR REACTION WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXTENT
TO WHICH THEIR OWN NORTHERN FRONTIERS WERE THREATENED).
THEY WOULD NOT NOW FIND IT AT ALL EASY TO RECONCILE THE'
PUBLIC TO INACTION IN THE EVENT OF A MAJOR SYRIAN MOVE. THE
TROUBLE IS THAT THEIR DOMESTIC POLITICAL STANDING AT THE
MOMENT IS VERY LOW AND THEY HAVE ACQUIRED AN INCREASING REPUTATION
FOR INDECISION. THERE IS THEREFORE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK THAT
ANY SUDDEN ACTION BY THE SYRIANS COULD STAMPEDE THEM INTO TAKING
DANGEROUS COUNTER-MEASURES.
ELLIOTT. 144 ' .}1l3S 2
- No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/11/15: LOC-HAK-161-6-9-7