CIA MEMORANDUM ON THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-16-5-28-8
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 14, 2010
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: September 10, 1971
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/01/14: LOC-HAK-16-5-28-8
Mr;MUKANDUM
NATIONAL\SECURITY COUNCIL
INFORMATION
SECRET \ I September 10, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR: DR. K NGER
FROM: JOHN H. AOLDRIDGE
SUBJECT:
CIA Memorandum on the Political
Situation in South Vietnam
General Cushman has sent you a CIA memorandum entitled "Election
Developments in South Vietnam" (Tab A). It contains some background
leading up to the withdrawals of Minh and Ky last month, as well as
some thoughts on what may lie ahead.
18
Generally, it is a bit lengthy and repetitious, and you may not wish to
read it through. The tone of the memorandum is neither overly pessimistic
nor optimistic, and the following points scattered throughout the report
seem worth noting:
-- Minh was never a very vigorous or determined candidate. He
made no effort to organize. As much as anything, he seemed to concentrate
on building a rationale for his withdrawal.
-- Thieu overplayed his hand by galvanizing the GVN machinery,
thus handing Minh a credible excuse for dropping out.
The circumstances of Minh's withdrawal and Thieu's decision
to proceed with an uncontested election have provided ammunition to
those who wish to attack the government's claims to legitimacy.
-- But it is not clear whether Thieu's opposition will grow larger or
react strongly. Although developments have offended the sense of justice
of many South Vietnamese, others may be impressed by Thieu's
MORI/CDF
C05099545
SECRET
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/01/14: LOC-HAK-16-5-28-8
 No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/01/14: LOC-HAK-16-5-28-8
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SECRET_
demonstration of political power. Thieu's natural opponents are likely
to pause and review the bidding before choosing their next move.
-- Minh appears to have no stomach for leading a broad opposition
movement. Although Ky is almost certainly willing, he is a most unnatural
ally for many of Thieu's strongest opponents.
- - The likelihood of a coup is probably no greater now than before.
Basic ARVN interests have not been threatened by recent developments,
and a substantial number of military leaders would probably not choose
to move against Thieu (or any incumbent) unless the withdrawal of U. S.
assistance was threatened, a coalition with the Communists was impending,
or real political chaos developed.
Comment: Overall, the memorandum seems to allow equally for the
possibility that things will get worse, or that things will get back on the
track with little if any permanent damage sustained. This is a good safe
way to hedge bets, but hardly helpful.
SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2010/01/14: LOC-HAK-16-5-28-8