COMMUNIST CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL POSTURE

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LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3
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RIPLIM
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S
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45
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January 11, 2017
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January 6, 2010
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5
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November 12, 1970
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NIE
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 SANITIZED COPY FOLLOWS No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 25X1 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 PMIEAVit M:43 7J19 NIE 13-7-70 12 November 1970 NATIONAL JN1LLIGENCE ESTIMATE NWASER 13-7-70 Communist China's. International Posture Submitteil by UNflED STATES PNIEWOINcE BOARD As indsolost comorleaf 12 November 1970 344 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 rifir Wowing fallikerent erganizatioec participated th iStfOOtiP The Criorai Imo&graft Array rood tiro iriaillgooce 1i lOW. Mawr- amok of Soto and Winos. ood tho NSA. Coricurriata ft.434on. R. E. Ctottmoo. tr., VAC..DuryMoe ler Orrerat freoltlesoar Or. lay E. CUn. 4. DIrodor iifotolEaerat rood Illeroards, Doporuseoi of Slots Oen. Donald Y. Ilecooff, Ike Director, Nkomo locoecanor Atorey Or. Writ W. %Wok, for the Direrfor, Notioact Sari* Ateraq' Mr. Owlet, X Somer. torlit irearroot Owned Aocineace, Atami %MEI ?HIP Milling Abotainiew Mr. William O. Crow, ter dm teafetere to lie Diniciet, todatt loom of Irmo* wok" rho *bald holing ouithie of far Welles/4 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 ? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 myr CONCL 10 I. I Five 4 PO AMON POLICY: SOMR PRINCIPLES AND PRIORITIES . ? . A, 1E0 E1004100.,1 BUC ? ,,,,, , ? ......... ? . ? ? ? 4 5 i.0001.0010 Conitraints ARecting FoceIgn listE1stkeo ? ? ? PROSPECTS ARO CONTOPCENCIFS . Poldati #0****4 Pot* Policy E. Sino4mtlert ItektiNfid C. The Tringulir Relationalitk USIUSSIVOlgoto, . .. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 COMMUNIST CHINAS INTERNATIONAL POSTURE NOTE Chines mom to octiue diplomacy takes new q?tflkire about the direction o fist foreign policy ?Altar fens years in which the totennd preoccupatione of the Cultural fievolution thoroughly aeasulladowod foreign rektione, Peking is now mooing to rep* it* international keep and to esploit new opportunities. In attempting to estimate how China will play thli new tole interantional politics ever the nem year Or to, this paper lea examine Pekittes options in tants of thaw polksj factors which are most likely to remain constant and those which am subject to gnomes eoriMious in mamma to domestic or external sunset It waist he acknowledged at the outset that we haus reanarWly Little laformatiors 014 ale decision-ranking processes in Ptah& Ma, 'MMUS of shart-suts tactical moves are ariciptibli to condsleotshie Wet Ag in the post, midden twists mid tarns in Chinese polietee will peobably continue to surprise us. But in the broader perspective of long-range goals and basic capabilities, this paper attempts to sat useful guidelines on the course that China is liksh,o ID follow In adapting to the outside semi& CONCLUSSONS A. WfththewgofladfrottheCuI Wei Revolution, %Meg has substantially won matio position and is moving to coumete for influence In new mem. Its successes to dette?the in large part to the receptivity clothes nations toe more normal mlationsidp with the Chinese?lave hum impressive, especially in SOW of sumndary importance to Peking. In areas of prime =morn, Le, the Soviet Union, the US, Southeast Asia and japan, program hes been marginal mid Peking's policy Iwo sure. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 I Many domestics and foreign obstacles stand in the way of salm- is% Freitag's husk goals, whether these be Chine as e Peet power and leader of the world revolution or as a more traditional but highly na- tionalistic wrathy eoncerned primarily with Asiae interests. C. On the domestic side, stability and steady growth in beak elc. monis of siniegth--econointe? military, political?ere far from assured. Even in the brat of drciallitiMbli, China's marginal economy will serve to limit 10 Millaimusbility in foreign affairs. A peat deal of work remains to he done to restore effective government administration, and to rebrdki a communist party. So longer Mao lives, the possibility of disruptive mama** exist and his death could otter in a period of leadership uncertainty and intense preoccupation with internal affairs, Et Externally, China's aspirations tignabk blocked &reedy or in- directly by the realities of the international scene incleding the vastly supericrt power and hostility of the USSR, its most irnmediate threat an well is rift] for ideological leadership in the Communist workh the US pressmee and US comegtments around the periphery of China.; and the growth in economic strength and self-rmafidence of another traditional rival, Japan. E. Even should the Chinese regime wish to alter ibS baste foreign policy approach. and use its growing military for aggregates* In peripheral areas, its options would be limited by the riir of provoking me or another of the superpowers. From Peking's point of view, milt- tary adventuree in Southeast Asia, spinet Taiwan, in Korea, or in the Soviet Fox East would be needleasly risky and the potential prim not worth the game. Peking dos, however, have room, men In present circumstances for =Me maneuver dkeedy between the two great powers as well as around their flanks or under their guard in South. east Asia, the Near Fast Africa, and even in Eastern Europe. F. At present, the Chinese lee the USSR as their rnejor military threat By accepting negotiettons with the Soviets, cooling border tensions, and improving their diploma* tmage? the Chinese apparently fudge that they have reduced the tisk of hostilities with the Soviets There is little pecepect, however, of a genuine rapprechement emerging horn the present Sino-,Soviet UAL But both sides are apparently concerned that their amine not end in a military test. Thus, as long 10 they both continue to manias the present; degree of reilitary b11130100, No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 there is lately to be son* inprovemont In diphenatic and trade rola, Liner but little movement in herdee talle. At long es Mee lives there it almost no dunce of SigItiffiefillit corapromise on the ideological Tendons, 0, With the US, Peking has moved frown its previous inhosigence to a mem flexible appear& better dedened to exploit the Sino-US ft- lationthip for Chinese purport. The Chteese hope to meet& the Soviets by playing on their fears of a Sin:akin-leen rapprochement as well as exploit the potential for chew. to the balanee of forces M Rad Asia resulting from the drawdown of the US military presence. pj:ting 1101/ flexibility, however, Pekine does not expect an early =Jot improvement ia Shin-US relation and any small improve', meads ave likely to be limited to waging loot H. Jam poses epode/ problems to Peking because it too is an Aden power, fa outstripping thine, in economic growth, and it strop* resistant to Maoist sulwersion or Chinese threats. And the Chinese, who remember japan's* bnperialism le China during World War II, worider what deed the japenese may become to then' security over the long term and fear Tekr, will one thy take on the role of pro" tumor of Taiwan, The Chinese answer so far has been to continue with a rather rigid and vituperative propaganda attack on Japan's Indere their policies, and their alleged sabitios IP MIL While this may impress the North Koreans sad some people In Southeast Ma, It does little good for Chlea's cause in japan itself. Nonetheless, and despite the he:posing growth in Stne.japanese nide, any lassie shift in Chines approach La Apee seems unlikely in the preeent ideological climate in Peking. L In Southeast Asia. Pekieg's earlier fear that the Indochinese war might epill over into China seems to have lessened. Indeed, the Chinese seem to believe that the US is being fumed gradually to withdraw its military presence from the region and that this process will eventually Improve the prospects for Chinon lefluencia Wier than use Welt military force to exploit possible detulopmenu in this ausa Peking's more Maly coarse will 69 to increase its support to subversive and Insurgent activity. The Chewer will sleek to soideCri their role as revo- lutionary leaders wit/or exposing themselves to undue cost or risk In addition they will rely on conventional dipkinacy when this suits their needs. There is abundant evidence that Peking feels no need to No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 ?Agar set deadline, end has no schedule to Mill; it is dearly revered for the bag heel, 3. ht the longer run, if blao's successors follow a more steady sod pragmatic emus% they are likely to have greeter /access than Mao in aspasuling China's political millance and assooptssice,, Wo mono be sure, of come. bow future ludas irdll see their situation, end it le peetsible that they will be prepared to employ China's developing power in a more aggressive manner, We think it more likely, however, that they will continue to focus their foreign policy on cliplosnacy at the mart level and on rubversice at the covert level. The open use of ilitaxy force will probably be Judged needlessly risky. I. While we do not doubt that China would fight tenaciously if invaded, we lee no compelling factors moving Peking toward a policy of osPeroaloolsro. Or *WO* higher level of rids.taking. For ell its verbal hostility and Intent aggressivenese, neither the preseat net the probable future leadership is MAY to me foreign edventurea as It *claims to China's problem, DMUSSICifi L fOREKIN POtICY1 SOME The ideelogical ease l In past, hell% 011 pmcdveg the outside mold In tradidemi ways. The Shmosobto view vi the Middle Fine= has sawdeval the advent of th* rem. touoists. The pet century km WI residue of bitterness sad froutrittoe emotes those Clietem--oarteiely the vie ankeltr?orkee mom of natimasto end patriotism Ina beer mereged by what they am m oder isestment of Chloe by lontoess, This belie IMO* Of IlltiNdOM and fontrotion Ism hoditeted the people's toomplance if enormous sessilloa rod hes pesurdited aminvoodds In sorry at seraistooso7 propose Wined it tresidng rename?dim on. reolistio--gords. While popular sopertations Iowa been reprieedly dirappetteed, the he& slymmiort of Odense retionsliare melte to be andaibad Melo and seen. Unlike the ideologr, of Maclees, *Wok may not long mote* Its creator, the traditional semi of Chines privileged sole the world etil psehalsly omen mute* theme In tide end my foremehle Chinese govemment. It Matta 1460106y, which emphasise; the ineviteldlity of clers conflict and woad revoletke, adds ea legrodient at violence end itgilanoo to traditional Chime drives. It etterepla to poled the tetbititioniory expatienes of the Chi- nese del war mato the world stage by edvettemg tae Mee of the atfloecit Iliernten russets through the nwhiliestion of the poor countrim to the world, No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 .3014;11e? Pelting tsittilm the hear of the revolutionary line, however, ised has accopteti and developed a policy of prattbal cortaisteer-, tor applicants whom this tab Its nada Arialogoos to the anent* entriel beet policy width served the eon, maudiu well in the Chinese civil war, the panda] coexistence Ithe was cepapily lotwoled lobe s temporary scoonowaladoe to tk norms of latinierienal conduct which anal be replinced as alio tossettla falowed atlas revolaineary pith. Bet as the prepersts far world revautien has dimmed, partial taesisteece has assonned a larger role to Moat foreign policy, twat while prepapinda area an the more orthisan policy of revointionsup urns* reessists at a high pitch. 8.isitalogy contanes to pay anaceptioesely hisportent rap hi the frensula lien of Chinon forage paha, Aithotyth deciskaarases may hold varying &grail at bath ha revolutionary dopier, all arir required to faddy their propmals in Ni tetra lads artification hat become putioltriy Impotent as a roe& of the Cultural Revattion atrial which the pap and coanorpingt of a divided hoidaship was attroakstel by bah% internal politiced deviaticat with *tenet karate& Many dosesta figura deposed anti the Cuitoad /Revolution, kw In. 4110110$ NW. WWII of Following Palace tha wens protoviat or *seas, ha. penlaffer, As da Kornai of the Cultural llerehttion lave Inhaled, ago die rettna to *ore conventional *knew how brat clothed in the Adak of Maoist itheingy. L Th Millhay Ingredient 4. Maltary strength lat beat a major preoccupation of a lativittbog it- tuned to Meer datum that the lanai of a pon* was the mom of power. Itlareciva, Lb. Chinese lave been or smiths to the wadi they have ban to the role of violence as advacing world arenas& Politica concepts and propane are coecatved In stsittgla end tactical military fano and trartindnad to the Climate maws and the ma at the world to *rata rhetoric The traditionally strong petition of the tallboy in Cearnerata Chia has manned new ireparlace ate Rauh of its vita role to underpants% this supine dieing the Waal Revoletka im a la-product. the ralitary appears to troaresed its inflecnee over the hamoartion and eseautton of policy. tf, Contorembt elhine's *Ilkley power it hoposoive by Alba 1401/411111 bat resnalea markedly inferior to dot of the timiaporrat. The People's .1.0theratiois Army (PLA), whose beat strength les In des lite and Aeons atitbty of its Pima fano, baa the coPabilliY 62 Par tip a formidable defeat of the mike- lend vilest any harden. Howstrer, wide persistent efforts ova the past in years to strengthen and moderate the Chinese Armed Faces hive *tided gene cleanable randts, 1,401110111iC and politica disruptions have hit the PL,I, ye/eatable in WWII MIES agate* a miens opponent. Some of itt mons evi- dent problems are an appererst doticsesoy in moterbed Inetspat and heavy mentonsent, an stir defense meant which probably lacks adapirie eastrarant- dons end data panosaing espatatiffes, and e racy which MOW Title more then e coastal defense fince. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 Wir. which Peking emddril het renseined Immo* matiniss expesisece lkidng appeared kliffekti* betthor to fereigo policy oblectlots. lairds to 1058 sad tho dollsosivo 1.962 both reiketed Pektog's cencort, with the US, Even agate& the dereonetrably weaker careful In 1952 riot to hem= tarindied ii i loss thy eatidied to coda the point that, in spite of Week Chime was etIll reedy sod able to tithed *NA %things 153024C, in the ideoingleal Rolth the deployment of China's militely femme nallatiON heticalty defensive. Maoist snaltary doctrine emphasises Manse in depth and the mtgeomment of the entire civilian pepoletion to over-, mem an attack. The fear of a US attack has eased, hi past Imese of a lemming comma since 1946,4*X that the Southeast Asko war Might gat ON, bee chine, sted it probably lower now timed any other thee to the past SO yea& The Chinon now view the Socket Union to posing the most immediate milltsny -threat and over the past you hive base coadadias an extensive compels? to propene kr the pereibility of an eventual war. Ic sosordence with this shawl three, them ere todicatiosse the* the Mow are to:lusting their etilitary deploymants, ithhosgh there his been ao wholes& nomosemt of troops to the northern border. S. Zee though tho main *prowls to the defame at China will emphasizes Memo Iii sloptik?ssg,, Woes "poogicrs we?olsicks is NOT411 to Its railibsy pot- tom them I mato* to finbt * pcoleaged, &hushes Wit wales Mr* no Peking lesdership hat steady given a high priority m effrobing the Whew symbol* of a great power, especially strategic weeperst, but elm ienventional forces as well. Pei* probably wants the stratogio weepoce Mine* as a de, terent avian e. Soviet ce US meek and to Mem* Maw huspdatig strength OIL isiterniticual beam There is sm evidence that the sidtimeritont el a drat* capability will recormarily snake the Chimes mon improseni. They swill simithrot in be aetaffed by oveserhslatingly superior US and Sod* power bath frown oat- di& attacks ord from esseginS ist 'Medea. hilmitnrair In East Mk. China made its Arm I., have impact on the interaatined some sad it willing eo peed memo MOWN= to achieve this sod, hut it am be exploded to contines to exercise caution in entsleyieg US ectratational and mother arena* Peking aspects its political leflueoce in Asia to grow, riot hose the open use Of military pease, hot disotegh active ilipiemet-y and the enerneageomm and support of subverdva mid oneleitimmly offivittee, all booked by the looming prommos soil growing power of homemade' Chloe ea the Asian souse. Domestic Constroirds Affecting froodge Inillothem . lit addition to the ideologied and milittsy piratentittiesis cited above do. samtio Wert detonator and often *merely restrict doe range of foreign ;oaks tootles and tostrunteetalities ripen to Pc4log. Thum lacsastic constrainta operate 6 ?weer? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 Sicur" ...t : peelsoktgleal, and hurt auteatio restnewm mashie for. selettona. ? economy throw the teeth rit4 ma evot approaris Ow high grewtb rates of the liatt. A modshostion of...beton were responsible ? ? ? ? &Meted pleming blunt monegamit of the Garet littetresd it the rod of the 19501; the ementien of &nig aids bid :acted, torsditions in .tise tidy yam of the deosdei ted firselly, the iihroptions. : thrintral fiewiliatem. At the mese time, the properness of imens/C44 voted to the military setter luesewed, addling to Chtea's techookogical capabilities, but .fiwther develepromat of the dvui..iocorsomy. 11. Ms hawse to ersiterala rote of .montis ;in the civilian economy Chia" wipabillity to not nosnoode homage fer? fangs patty gods- Chteeri .thusgss Iii the early. Idges al the ettetereic modal foe Ada .has been Urge* Slesitrosud.: The fabled. potential at ths. %lams side las leit much elf As itheottim to would WAD" thereby teducieg the volition cononsions Pekin am. wad In srmiseep for trading .ptiVilegoa I. Polley ineptitude ,thso hinders the Chinese. ?If Peking's intatset potoecepe. doe with Waned pelittes had paid off in tams ot rapid ec000tedk inWi, end pollical domiegnient, the .atinsoo might now have a weeder .donstado base for .the conduct tif forvign Jabs. In first, de major esperinseam designed to pods 'Chinn idissid, incleding hods the Quit Leap Forward awl the Wheal Revak. tin% hies bum ditastens. Although the economy has Imply recovered, .party otpushation read* disrupted, ehoil edorialsketion has been harapetiak led lasting tennis* have hoes .esemsn within die .kulashipe a moult a the Coburg Revelation. .. 13- :The foreign poky sosinstes proved es vulnerable as ether hureenonsue orguss to the inmect. of the Cultural :Ilevehxdon, Fee oast* thee yaers, the humulatton. and emotion at &mime policy woe* titioralyssert by .polithal. tfgbtln lled 'Omni **Mem hi embemins ahead and within the foreign htty Ittuif brought comitromive activity to * virtual stensinilL All sadwasadors hut one: were retailed to PAiogo =Way shies were nissteatially scdnotd. and militent pinewing was gamed as * mdatitutts for leadithmat diplomacy_ 14. This: is not to .tay? of Nome, that Othes ?preemest was not felt in the. ovoids ?votid dining the Chimed gavolatibm.. Trade .msd *id Pregnant cosse dewed, as did support fix 'absentee to Southeast Ana. and elsesthem And potendal as a great power was ernflEtti to the mom its the derejopineas of nuclear weapons cominned depth demente mosedt. ?Nainstionlaw, it was not until 1P au Chinese ambeasedom began to Kale bens to their posts, arid the .tretreet Otertelete to retrieve Calla interniktietnil AW1*$ auth ininthenct stoned to earetet.. The return to fre-Ctikuvel Etrovettotee diplomacy has bone ind **Aft, and the beam* between radical arid more praginalle infirientor reniehe &legs and pairithilly 7 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 PROSPECTS AND CONTHOENCES A. Peking's Activist ForeItas Policy IL With Rs forage oaFals$ apparatus lately restared. Pah% is moving middy to realty de letwOrltural Rev.:Attica dipkinatio puritan and to com- pete for influence in now mu, nis drive hen emphasized paratefel madame and hie sought inthsence throsigh eionwetteral, diplomatic mama itt gliedeStaV to date?due la brie pert to the reeeptivity of other rations to a mom mamal releticontrip with the Chown?hem boom Impressive, aspetally when con- pored to the almost totel isoledoit at the height of the Cobsoal Resolurtioo. Most of the gam boomuitrfr have come in MIES of kens- operant to Poking mod ender einsearetthers which have made improrenent in ttilitidtn may arid rob- thely chem. ? 10, Anal*. vi seem aimed to the Chinas, Mae" pokey he hese lit'. sum %lovably ad monism emeriewermice have hem thoemerago of relettime with the Stele UM" the US, Somehow Asia, and jepan. hi these areas where policy decisions we boom eliffindk, differences widths the laiden, ship soma* tome to this fere arid "Milo the estire deridon-auldng promo, TN; WAS reperially marked le the thou*** of althorn valley toward the USSR during OSP and the eartinuing tickling mainline pawed vieheir the Soviets in 1970- Peuxes handling of the meat tumuli in Oesthadie?end its effect on SineAreederia rotations?she Wowed it igaittat honouree width undenmemd the tigiush tri formulatog pada on mow foreign tame. L Sirro?Savirri Relations 17, Though sane of the immediate doper he loom na,noved from the ilea- deo. the Sine-Seviet divot* remain the *die meet hapenent bilateral con- f' NtIng, At the same time, it madonna and demonther corny mixes of the Chinese poistrue in &Clog with other COMMOIAlt stets, the Third World. red the West, 18, Although relearns haulm Moscow end Peking had beat deteriorating markedly over the hat decade. end the Solent hoop deployments raring the Stine-Sovist Waft had been building Mum the se14-19401, the Mose* tweet appear to [as die tbraoit of Soviet military amino seder* nista otter the. lewastar of Omehosiovelea. Even than Peking sought to deter the Soviets by adopting a hen* militant posture. coribining provocative behavior on the border with strident premegrota end en intensive war prepenuiosoi 0OAP1411. Sestet peenrare continued to pow In VA. howaver, sea sifter bloody clasher on the Ussurt in Much and in &Adam during August, Soviet diplomats began to drop hoed huts about a possible preemptive straw mph* Chinese nuclear And onstegle weapons facilities. The Chews", *wane now that they might he farad with the skies humors backing dews and risking their nuclear metelle, data finally wood In September to the loader negotietions which everted it Peking October SI 8 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 lit Tho stsposianca of tint Paso sessame moved the Mose to rrita.etnOak bunko policy Wis. For *CID dotard% the Soviets, their millituat intairi Ind net amity raised the possitility of tweed suellist with the Soviets to an meesasto- *bin level, Mu the deepened Chios* diplomatic Widow Myr elan was ap- parantly a prolonged debate early to the fall. tie leadership decided that boo* talks offered the mot viable =WM of defusing die dregemosly tome Otinitico At dm mom Woo, the derides was appeowstly tidal to lemmas a witiormaging thpslorradic ciraptifge to sestme Clitsmei world days end talsonem, both as a deterrent toil. Soviets cud to tamped of Mose chteedrei +meld, the bfiairiii Sbsolloviet homework. Slam the epodes of the bonier Wks, dein his been me evidence of program OA ow of the hack hewn ccobanting dor nogottersca La Rite of the stalemate, however, dere have beam no specific reports of mew border ciaalise, which apses that the mere meow* of the talks los hod nen stabilising affect Tor their pert, the Meese lova doseentnitol their concern for maintilriog the talks at the lighest possible tool by vig000dy swatting any irut wkoh might lead to thoir downloading. The Soviets mem to boa rosectied title point, possibly become of then posocumpatice Pith evitels to totems Lamm eel the White Zak mud I aomequerit orseillirectras for sow, it triwr now eon, Amnions with Oise, 11. Despite the soothimg effect of the talks, the bailor Muslims moseys pato. Sally mpledat The Soviets bore continued their fame Mild up slag do border, Although the COW" bairn oat Ognificontly beefed up kayo iamb oar the boo* dam is rose evidence tbat they lave deployed Pool* north hist arms dam enough to be noddy imetishle ha int surergeory. They ore dm trying to improve the effrootivemets a their poramtilitary forma. Moen cPstl dames earopsigeo to hallol oir said shalom, disperse porde:too and swap& Rad? a of which an modal fee sieriestle reasons an well?remobt iii offcet, 21. There ben ban Apo of ems slow, hake nonnaliabom of Oitv rtim lion; althcnagh the ideciogleal golf smombie as hand as ever and quotiorn of prime* and roismossee are no door to satiation doom Woo After protracted 4W4ing no esaango of ambessedoss is to the final images or arroargessomr, Ltd dtacussium forth. MVO Sim Soviet trade protocol have hem tompleted. 23. The prospect of a getup* tepoolemeot monies out of the SlmwSoriet Wks mow seems remota As Imp is Mao lives there is oho* no dims; of eigriliomot compromise on the ideologised questions. Peking, wing oa prospect of a military savuoise ow the Smiths, somata committal to the loug-tena process of lompleg bunions below the limb paha while attempting to pile op political poise* In that comoremist world by embassaihog the Soviets at ovary opportunity. Clio with a aaattaaatlaa of the dap naticeol motagenhat and the ideologies' schism, both Oda ere eponym* croccrocd Ma the duputo mot sod le it maim* tot. Over the last year bath sides hor had cause to estimate tire costs of a prolonged reditery confrontsdon, prommably a prospect that wider kiwis partioularty advaahlivana. No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 ?WILT' Jar Relationship US/USSR/Chhto Mow approach to the US has boot strongly affected by their polit- witis the USSR. Tiek wee apparent earker thle yen when Po%deg ts previous intnessigone against the US to intent Saab* approoeli ed to Inning the Sino4,3$ reintionahip for Chinese perm% Vie wen undoubtedly to tottettie the Soviet; by 1$1004 od tit* tests reppreehterstent.Ily derneentrating their comern over tith possibility, the have probably insured that the Chime eI1 ountinue to exploit the "triangular reintiorold " wherever and whersroar suits their Deeds. Svcs though events in Cane reused lb. Osesete to Ohs /oter liter against the US, they hove clearly matranard this option to priturn to e nen gedbk, venue when 4 won thdr intend, 1115. The potential for chimps in the kismet of forces in East inet reecittag from the drowdown of US milker/ prasontre is another factor encouraging more Steak Chinese tactics toward the US, The Chinese will hope to speed Areer*, eon troop witbdressab from the tom especially from Taiwan. Al the reme than, they oeu passibilitins for improving their relations with mates now keyed to rely less on &swim gmenotese. Peking may Am hope that it can wort b in- flow:0 to exacerbste frictions aussed by a reduction in ti*35velum The Mine* sot** sec the us-wo relationship as patioularly vuhierible In this reaped. El Them aro no inrclicarions that Ming upon to being shout an early. major Improvement in Sire-VS relations, The Chboss mobehly coped no far- menhing US COIKUSICIDIF On TON** Mich MOW= the auto test he bits* Nur are they Skely to give op the US as the whet teiget in their Ideological offensive' now ties cepitidtet-imperiabst enemy.. Nonetheless, Peking will with to ineentsin *Anent iloribility to exploit the triangular relation* and toluene promptly In whatever direction often its masinston botefits. 27, For them remora my early improves/tato to Sino,US tektites is likely to be limits& For movie *bough Dean US trade concessions have hem moslicody ignored by the &nen in publics they hive privately *WA rome Intact in how far the US might move to this direction, While Sleety to mint any formal trading relationship, der Chinese MTh ready to soma mere subtle, indirect trading through third tweet Menu* they ere lately to dove little **vett to formal diplcintatic recognition to hog es the US remains ceemekted to the CRC. At the same Lime, however, they will probably retain am introit In keeping lines of mainstracotion open though connote mob as those at Warsaw. The pow of Moen gestures will probably kr *low and ensile, sabiect to ves- ture* felt in Eticiag frceo chugs In Sino.Soviet and Seeti*US nittkim 28. fraT ?00141 years to come, Sine-Sevin relations mil be Feldnfs major coo - seen in totalipt ash* Peking his already shown al sone eensitivity to the pas- sibility Etat the US and the USSR might find onsideohle common ground in opgoint% China. Ii reedits% Peking will aneeept to ernioerhate the *Wing 10 .,.stater" No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 ampleitess hennas !rioter:en and Weals irscrensenglY Pedal' iticli before the meld el the innecent rictins of *oohs " banners the auperixtwore stad will threw eel Ihies to other Western Powers rind the Third World In to effort to skit now oupport The mere direct solatiOn would be for Peking In sash a ropproctieroont with Moscow, but them meethitstikelihood that Mao meld acntpt fhb 'hits required to moms istr aglow clew toward the Sorb*. Thus, over the own few years, or unki Mork dank Poking will probably am- castrate on /seeping the Sinci.U.S.USSIt relidloaship as Mid Ili possible its order to prevent any sill:hum* egelrat CJIL 0. China's Regional Alm Southeast Ark. Pekin(' early fermi that the heir:chewer wre mur Into China seam to hove lessened to recent yews. Evan though P4444$ hew eopre.andVrirehalUg021 that US frustration to Menem might lead to further escalation, the bade Wyman of the Chinese seems to be that the US is bogged dawn In an helecisivo effort that Is moor likely to Iced to a withdrawal than to further eeponsion of the lighting. Their coeftdmme in this ludgmeat mast hero beessatalma tesoporarily by the US efelft Imo Cambodia, but their adage- boa tri tikt Cenietng Patiestl Ce,ete for the US lieu probably persuaded the* that it la Olt Witt molio, whet we believe to toe their kerning? entnne probably manna ermistregods Le, In a protracted dreg& ifamers patience will contest that of OM US, 30, As regards the likolihcod of the PLA being sent into Southeatt Ma for offensive action, tho eridasos of the pet 110 yews suggests Paling maid be hictired Is drew ritrestion wily If Cikina's mouthy hsear as tIsraramed, as on Sas Stoo-Xoreon beoder hs 1053, or if China is provoked. u on the Slisroindens border in Iget Thus, we esetbuse to believe that China would use its military fame to prep up Neeth Women If it appeared that there was a zed danger of that grarersoreet collapsing, Struderdy. Chine wookl no doubt react with the PLA to a direct military dueet ebarbere islocg its soothes borden 3/. Patera some likety resporese?and abarat cartriely its laait4ai remssents? to aggravitioe in this area would be to Mame its nipped to subsessius and liworitaai acilyielA- The fact that ails coatirems its looverm instal:wawa of its Inge& OsPehilhice along this bade, includists the mem road building In northern Laos, girettates Beide& desire to Iwo tinware haute ready for whatever contingrecies may develop The chenester of the facibties, operational cionaidaations, mad recent history all suggest that Chteesio plans in this area rotate to the dolmas of south Chink and the assistuite of nearby insurgancies rather than to IL massive push by the FLA inik# 511Pultelft Aga. The objectiva. as before, would be to bring into minima) Mangy goiernonents responsive to Pelibvgit POWS" Wafts* and. In Manors view, this could he done better by indireoliors?looleding diticarratie preteure?den sem aggression, IR. ThaSsrei and Burma ere already targets lin a aulorrrelve effort Thelbant's dare gee with the US guarantee Chines coothnsing hostility. Thus far. Pelting No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 has load little appotttinity to apply diplomatic Demme to II end hes litrolt relying an * lotig.terti campaign to cocounige femoray it the gov. mimeo. non is no waollen tint Feldwg lee! 111 an easy tasko ono that can be acmes-A$*4 weekly oven if giwo a high pia*, Ore Ow contrary. Peking h tonalstent in ieivecatta$ Wed ecif-rellemee and hte Oro* littlet mete- rth lekt er the active inamorata Wield them be a substardel nabobs it the US pram= In Snadwast Age, 10 O&M owy combine this low-koni activity with more positive diploma* Nandkihmeate. lo Surma, Moue propaganda It encoaraging reettictioaary eeH4ty nip- Plotozolod bY eine41 ammo a rad In ontis and medals% to dinkirow est hide mineritioa Bet diplomotto mods with this neutralist government Imre been dameged Wiser than broker. Faints return kr moknalinn in ohm ere* of $IA diphiy may +Nominal' to *tended to *dude Improved vitae* avith Rangoon. indemtl,, le now appears dot both tidos are inspired to room retro normal rellatIons it yen so, Peking is mot Wady to ithandett lIs suppert 01Bantiah inaingeo* 34, iIisweltese le Southeast Alla, the Chigoe are ifiketty to mid toao toting* loeal rancestiouswit* bot t. thew relatively IVIIN/415 UV" significant mamba assimince Is taidikely to he provided, Tho Chinese will scoliame to find it Mb - tali to refuse requests for mid hum any swam that theirtn ea insurggot or MONA- !dowry cepelatkity? but they will anoticee to %ego ialf.reliance rather dica dc. pagan* outside aid. Thus, the Clideete will maintain (het role se revale. Weary bettors hot without esposing themmlyes to owing cart or Tisk, TIM* Ii shuandiet evict*** thet Peking hols to steed to wit &Whore and hat me eehetheleto fIftll. it to clearly geeptomi far the lug haut, 8outis Asia. Mat *toren in Indio, his & stisdioly low tank on Poklages lade of prieettles. China la concerned with SIno.ladian border issuer, with pot- Atait stables with the Soviets over ham.* tot South Ma, and with *Aro ttrattag that iota* t. tetivelge of, playing tiro re* of a leading 4W* power, Toward these ends Psidog bus sought to moberreat 04 *Abingdon Nen Dell, but widiaut becoming deeply lowileed in the effort. For botenor, Peking Las propeganitaid and prowlded knitted arms and umlaut; to Nage end Mb* tabo- os= outent bail* without. however, ettriopting to tura thit Into irasp* OilelF41110. NI On a lama no*, Paints military aid tti Pakten?the major sicavann- entertist sectiplant of such Chlono tikt?atutt been out oi common enmity kr Ind* la the pettel2 the Pak:Wolin Nom boom to* arms ni dln china* and Yaws mE proisily InOit to preserve and inerture this talatiesuldp moo if Simi-Indiart relation, should hoproye tomowitat hi the caning ymws. Thrthwite *alas between Peking ead New Uhl suggest both parties may be ready Ice a sewn to CM. VerntiOrda viirdoinaLT. While (otos] den may ha mowed, In INC with Peldees current eflort to beater lb diplomat* image, the relatiorteingi wIll tinclonlitedly remain ouitiouie and toot few wee tine to mac No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 eovirder 37. The Aries Communists, Ming now wow &twinkled to consolidate the aoricenlY Worm's(' *a with bath North Vietnam and North Korea. If way brume of the primacy of the SituSoviet conflict. Peking is likely towo to soma lengths to improve ita relations with Preagmagind RoiotprehillOWY it Moscow"o eimesue, Thc ennr of mashing Pyongyang and flatlet, whether ideologically es- politically, now seems to he clan to Peking and ie tedikol?v to be repeated in the aentogram forms as during the Cuitusei Revolution 38. Cisinall pow* coil for "militant untie is mobil* designed, in the first instanot? to squeeze out the SO'4414 Union. It also serves to give the impreesion OE 4 MOW active role in the *sioti-impestalist* struggle then chimes asisiimis mellow %wan, xndbeitIi 3eCal likelY taut Mu wilt continue to tailor its role toward pasgsgesids and material support of those on the front lines tether than expose inelf to greater risk. Tlds apparent effort to evrite itself belatedly Into any peatible settlement lu Wm:Nu, together with its sponsorship of gibumisk wilt sem*, careful diplasnacy flit is not to alleimbe Erma Having boom the burden of the flyitittug, the Vietnamese sae likely to be especially semithe to any Chinese attempt to dictate strategy or tactics. Carmody the Chinos am moving with Reeve but their minuet beet toward olmunniartt is nearly as likely wupt against the Vietnamese as against Westerners 31 Arpin reps:resets a vowel case for Peking. Became of Japan's reemrlabla acessomie perkeeriance and US ansouregemant for it to imams a more active role in Asia, Peking is showing concerti over imparts potential mil1tu7 power, mod its posit& &sips on smother Greater East Ade Coopossperity Sphere, Tide mown woj heightened list fit by the 4iming of the Ninces-Sate ram. esistilitimi on the reversion of ?knave% Peking has ilways beau apprehensive mit Japan's comendleg influence in sIn, garticullarly in Taiwan, sod hes tikee the view that the NbioaSato communiqui signaled i MOM 4$4OrliwO and direct tole foe the Japanese in the area Peking's reanioe hu beta rearIcal by lmdhgns don and by an umettling 4414%4%00 that as the US diseagagea from MIs, apen will fill the void both economically arid math,* iod wi. sinamst the lead role in countering ChM& Adding to Peking's dilenune is the awintoem that its Patina mute and leverage in lapin have markedly dwindled and its lenge has suffered from the term= of the Cultural Revolution. 40L thisiene its liraitaticine?aud past figoses.?Poldos mood to hove jeddioi to continuo on a dense of limited meddling to japans interne affairs. Peking has also launched an intensive prepigude campaign which raises the specter of a remilitarized, impetialistic Japan, a footto Impel Pk/ designed to fan traditional Mien fens and to undercut Japanese idluence. Morcever, the Cahiese Ito atimapdrig to bnilds rase against US-USSE.Japossese 'collusion, which is elso Intended to strengthen Peking's hand la its conniettion for infhtence in A414, So ler this ipproach has boot successful in helping trapmve CUnits whom with North Kores, hut has eat had a significant impact on Peidoes meeetam *mitt ocighbota Furthermore, the camptign his net been aimed to effete ...Otter 13 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 , which is orpootod tmad; 8)4'0 41. 'Tiditsso, 1 tose?oit the ?Nettoririlin Chinese Covamonent ta Trewon remainsg motel eniein Chinese (sesta :044, 1th synths:a of the mitalithed malt:ion thowers a Way ernatiteril teem Wert itfter boo tocadee, The :Peking :thadlr.rship hew the rparicnil finstration of beireing that thm eestnat take Teistrati by forth, that It wtnet to them 14. delOolt. Hid diet the .grtheing strength d indepondencensiodsri TohveneSe worker; Peleinge ditins to the Island and prepetruite: the issue boa efthitely. The etnithithltitistsgrittion of the CPC ter many teuerries la the world end its: presence ::: the ON end odor internantniel Widths blocks :Pelting from fa intemational :partpation god romito. A InAjOr initstet to the 0.1.0,. Comthantat iiIIy dur 'Pawee limo i i omplex Auto* to topoorod mien:rine with both :the US end Agee thus nverdy ihettiog Peking's freedom to resinetever interiettenal WOOL 41 Korea continues to etIe nes tome bemuse of tao kitnitte;fe pok of the pentrotala,.. the spindribiteral scanpritation for tamer there, end the Adage solteliondap bytivosoi the north end the smith, Poking hes worlend siatiouslyto regain: its Wheatley to .rytanzeiiats. and :hes theyeadith iwhips wen* rikiiairi of friendship.. While sitterapting to limit the role of ti. US, TIM lopert, however, Peking will also *Oh to: limit North :Kormai adventertere, Tb.outlook is for tough pointed suggest: for be ,0-sisties propaganda co:t- histle combined with greet manse= co his militatry iiKCOSSet to aimid darning aloe .hdti soothes ortilitiry toofrootation on Or P. China and :the World Coramunity a Whore Peking's security: insemett are not directly engaged,: Clooete ,tilplo? standre activity over the Int Imes hes involved far mons terthil fhelbdlty than hes heat shown:vied-via the US and the USSR, The feet shown the world once ,agal* brawny zokessiblft: INA ,diapleond prior to the Cithood liemiletice? esue- fully enthiled row of rildain.bleirteaji. but entailing: Little or no change to heag. tam goalie. Sintegesiet rionsiderationi are mut of the equetioet :hi moot Of this Ilpheetie amtivity, and to some mom orstatily he Potent ?Etaropei Med to dosnicatis the Chthese WOOL 44, Eisterri Komi* hoe become an artioetIve WO for :Peking because Soviet problem theft MOM to draw Soviet anansien away from china, fn aitaigtaa to Its dose nes:torlidi Aihartia, Peking hat been uetleuly matitostiog the Porearstass, and more smolt, he. 111KOWO reel flexibithty In th.hieu idostrigy aria hyproving liernOrId. relations with "Ifttgeslivia...Antheaessiors base :returned th thingery? Petered, and tart Germano, .Paking la clout! :preparing for Ion:0mm compolitirei with the Peeks Union and for this meson elthe IF likely to give greater ettentiOn In the East Ethopents, Moth will of MOM depend on the satiety and ;finnan of: PekinifS apponeoh, bet at thic paths the :Chistriet have apporendy araosaml. the 14 )1B:Sier No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 oppationities u crt1i pursuing In thist often as In 464 Oip tic endeavors now tersdarway,Pcsking will likely roomer ground itot during the tund Reedit- don, eat, It It min hold to itS raw Prognostic dlidustressy, *there some forwed matteesest 43, Elvesthent to the world, Peking is showing reeved Mtwara in fostming batter yeastioes whme the Cost is eheiti: end the appeared** temptir.g. This dee not rule tot support foe revoisitiontry anevity, as is eland to the Near Eel, In =Rend 10 the leenvy arms sir) from the Soviets ro the drab world, the Chinsio wpirvelay hope to any the Arabs by cantenbatang that aid no the focisoyent" Tido will leohohly be mainly prop.sgando on -pimples war- with some tralniog mid smalbrams old. Thu also serves to keep the po boiling and the Smiths &emote& But aide denouncing the mesethe si en American- instigutoci "Airmich end ricelaing gent& support for the frilayeen in the /or - draw mirk, the datinesa have carefully rettetoed hem attach on the droll governments involved, ripproondy unwilling to compromise future stem sesdlons 00 ittries. 48. lo Akio% the Chew sell be concerned to mem" diplanustu looms to MIC lo recent yenta. This wid require MOM PrIt1111404114 dipkenacy and kis phiselythiole, Nuked, Mies Foreign! Money already seam to have socessand this serest NAB MiZar relsairoary work. For the most port, aid prof** Oro lthakr to mean unsdet hut with allot-lel efforts to snake thant prictirel sod idghly vble, The oesetrectiou a the IWO million Tarousestiaseohto nod NO lit3Ptati to be asks pcmellg 1.12Vied for Africo; the Chinos Opium* else love, thrftgb the provision cliy aki, to come Tanzania hue imajor beachhead to Meet a In an effort which nay he intended mat* to spotlight Peking's ratan to the world wear, the Chinese hoe also been dupierring unprecedented in- twee in UN moudiireh4p o whim- ean, Peking put precondidoes on its nem- hership which warn dowdy onocceptable to the Intemstirsosi bedy. More senenity, Odome officials how dropped their extrema demob& and have mot out comber of cautious keel foe topped to the UN. Whereas Chime dipiomots formerly spurned stub support, now they go out of their way to express appne daion (44 It, Despite all of this activity, Peking hoe not softened iis opposition to any Iwo-Charm' formalothsa owl hos ecetirinest to make it door the the CRC must tithe withdraw or be &mimed before Poking would imps: UN ovrenhorstip. Widened dtploosette recognition of Poking, suth as by Canada end ItaIy iss steadily improving the elvances for Its admission to the UN; web an outcome assent likely within tho nest few :more 48, to general, and herring the centingency of militesi mark by the USSR, Chines future Iseternettreal pasture is likely to depend mum err Chinese trostanid developments then on entereal fawns, U demesne political said ecomesie posiblems stemenotatc, so will the panne to givo them even higher priority, 15 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 emoormstiarit lessoning in fords]] listsreols. lodws tug reracins the key t 69 long as ha misled his dominance within ilso leodorship, Mao (void rovarre rhos Fremont rointiterly froodtrator trumak dult ?wt. Me impaduma hes growls ao tato goat for Chine base been footnoted by economit reek and nocalcitmot boom nature His ohiNty to retreat and tonsolldate Ottli ovidont, bi it b questionable erhotkr his ago sod health will pemoit amebic rooter pub toward his visionary Wats, In any smelt, despite his deep imorsora crow the ideologicol conflict with the SOVittS, Nines latent** likely to remain primarily on developments within China.. Nu is he likely to abandon We cautioto mod !ilk the dirotnictian of China by pormeadve mows spinet miler dm US or dm ME goo', death shoring this period could mate itliODU*101problemattliat could giro rekirog Kamm to protect a low potture cm the international scene for mote time, Almost any formiscoble coothinalien aretesscesooreen preurrastily hard. tom hie:Asti like CM Aso. the dernitaniod stwoessoc?worild Probe* Play for the* to oomolidato their positions nod to ittiongsheo Clops to Tepee passible eloadirsigra In dm longer run, as thors wive follow Ilse face up to the needs of Chino, the Mend is likely to be away bum the ideological moults or Maoism to*urde MOM realistic adttoonent to tiro diffleultios?in wlI as the vomits- altles?facing Chins. Indeed, if the mocormes pallet itk the piastre noverrnent toward grata Bettibillty mud pragmatism they ase likely to have scooter Am- oco than Mao in uploading Mimes political influence abroad. And for the hatere ran, Mimeo terclitional edwoorrotrirm will continue to fuel an asiedive and pateottilty iggrtodott natkondisin Prouniably they will coutioue to form their foreign policy arg diplomacy at the ?volt level mod no subversion and imirotodoo at the covert levet MIS could Melo& "oar by pouf or well as cficats to csacietbste US relations with lb A.stom lollies sod to musket inoseord Minion within .isese 000ntaioaWe con- not be rut of tonne, bow bingo Madam will ow their situsticw. and It Is Na- rita" that they "Mil be prepared to employ Chino's developing piswer In a more OWlitiVII it41100Z h WV omens likely, however, that th,. ups and oU?m- abe of military power will contimm to be loidgod goodie* risky and douched Woodarprialtretive Ewan the direelopowat of an oporatiottal strategic ewnepoal *Yakilt may rehlialior Chime eurtiOn rather than cocci/nap a more realms polity. Mato we do not &orb* dist China would fled tenaciously if invaded, or if dowirtigoid directly With invasion, we toe no compelling factors moriog Peltiog ***old ? policy of expansionism, or town a laighcr level of rialr- blcinik Por all its verbal hastility sed !stork oggrarivonase, Tadthai the preens our 11w probroblo future karlentlp Ia likaay to ana foreign adverrtures at a solo- ('toe' to China's probloma 16 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 CENTRAt INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DaehtINATION NO110E I. Th1 ur11.011 '11601/ $1111110111141hWi by +I++ conlraf froolliatinco Agoncr.ihiaapy Ft far de in motion eimi 1.14 of laws roglivatit and of pentad vadat foriothation on a fitimido.ffnaw hog. Additional alarmist distongoation 644yii.04111416k1141*4h.141SOW. Ina affIcialt .vela dodo. Namara floparioreatts a. Dingier of Initiktonto and kassarch. Ear tha, Deportment at Slats Dirlic1a4. Dafaaw fratligenm Agency, for Offko of /ha laaawlary of Delaimar and Oa organisation qt It 441111/ C444 of 50e 4404aal CIAO al Staff far ironlitgonoo, Dtipattnitot of dot Army,. iho Doparantat vif the Attliy d. AnIgani OW of Naval Oporoolons Iligolliwints.), for Aft Dapoilmant af Navy o. Auk-loaf Chita N 5folf, Inottilionet, UW, for +kr Dopartrnont af ths A4r Parc* f. tirtdw ctrit4,11144f44, Ate, far lh4 Aiaink Envoy Carottlfgan 0, Ouoltera Directly, rbk, fat 0fa fat104 Illoveov of rtsvi4iitattbri I. Dirarrar a f4d, for gat Iffatfonal Social," Army I, Director eti Cererei Dienewe Sonnot, CIA. far otlY DOpatiaall 1494ifiCr may ba adabloici rsiestarygd by kanaliva grdoma aftil pogasotora, or voluratd l di* Central 1.0.010aara Aorowy by a 6411 blooms Sendai. C}A. 1. 'W1wm dids dila I ?Ui,PJ 14V4611441I 144 444144641 614.114,4144141 may Nbain * fee a podod no In plat. At dm and oi Ohl* Doffed. Ilar ii.X1.644141 Sh41.101 alifar clemparg mtondan Amok( I* tottiatafod cif fiso iwordlnq 14,C,D-429/2, 22 JUY1M 1453. 4. la' 11114 of this devownt whpn tolsd 1 gee& peo.ougram...mjata 10,144 KWh* Neared Socurgy Courted Dominating of 50300 Dopatiatini of Oakum Aiaatic Etian Caam.4144aa IF?datal 1114/4114 Ittrottiaafloa /119411046, 46 par- meordanatuh No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/01/06: LOC-HAK-114-6-5-3