TOP CIA OFFICIAL SPECULATES ABOUT GORBACHEV

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-01448R000401700029-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2012
• Sequence Number: 29
• Publication Date: February 6, 1990
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401700029-6
Top CIA
Off ic1F
Speculates
AL-out
fierce political tug-of-war
could come to a climax at the
By Malvia Stephenson
WASHINGTON - The embattled president of
the Soviet Union is fortified to thwart his internal
opposition; according to the optimistic estimates
of the (J S. intelligence community.
Mikhail: Gorbachev has been hoarding execu-
tive power as head of state, planning ultimately
to resign his leadership of a weakened Commu-
nist Party and looking to a broader base. The
Malviaa tions at One Friday luncheon.
Kerr's:.Oklahoma date was arranged by Sen.
David Boren, chairman of the Senate Intelli-
gence Committee. The savvy, professional ana-
lyst will serve up the same kind of candid, in-
formed views (with some restrictions) that go into
President Bush's daily intelligence briefings and
guide Boren and his committee in their im.
portant decisions.
A native of Fort Smith, Ark., the respected
Kerr has spent 30 years at the CIA, steadilyf
climbing the ladder of professional performance.
In a new era of conformity and cooperation, Kerr,
pairs with William H. Webster, the former Mis-
souri judge who first came to Washington as FBI
director and was tapped to head the CIA after the
violation of Iran-Contra.
Dries Boren worry about a possible repetition of
that off-the-shelf, out-of-control arms deal? Not
involving CIA, as long as it's being run by the
"absolute integrity" team of Webster-Kerr.
"The Words for both of them are total commit-
ment,".,Boren said. "They are really commit-
ted tp,the professional approach. They would
never 'cook' intelligence to support policy. They
are real Boy Scouts kind of people."
current meeting of the Central
achev
Committee in Moscow.
More of such views are in
store for the Oklahoma Press
Association in convention this
weekend in Oklahoma City. The
deputy director of the Central
Intelligence Agency, Richard J.
Kerr will make a rare appear-
USA Today
The Washington Post
The New York Times
The Washington Times
The Wet Stunt Journal
The Christian Scbnoe monitor
New York Daily News
Chicago Tri
Whet will Kerr talk about to the OPA? They
asked.bim to discuss the "meaning" of the swift,
dramatic changes in Eastern Europe and the
impact on the United States and the Soviet Union.
The most questions undoubtedly will focus on the
survival of Gorbachev and his policies.
Boren generally agrees with the CIA conclu-
sions. "I think we feel that most of these trends
are pretty irreversible," Boren said about the
impact of Gorbachev. "I feel the chances are
more than 50-50 that he will last long enough to
set a direction that can't be reversed."
Boren sees a preponderance of evidence to
support the belief about Gorbachev's strategy to
gather executive power. For one thing, he has a
fixed term as president, four more years now.
Under the old system, his tenure as general secre-
tary has been subject to the whims of the old
party bosses. He could be dumped any time. Why
not defang them and hold independent power as
president?
Those with a pipeline inside the CIA may get a
different slant from what is crackling on the
news wires. For instance, Gorbachev was recent-
ly reported on the defensive, trying to hang on to
his title as Communist general secretary. At the
same time, Boren saw just the opposite situation
- Gorbachev shrewdly maneuvering from a po-
sition of comparative strength.
In all the uproar, Gorbachev did announce that
he would not resign as general secretary at the
meeting of the Central Committee early this
week in Moscow. However, his denial did not say
never.
About that time, some signs began to show
supporting the analysis of the CIA and Boren. A
Moscow dispatch reported that Gorbachev "sup-
porters" were urging the creation of a
'quasi-presidential system of-government" which
would concentrate the power of government with
Gorbachev.
Regardless of who seems to be scoring at the
moment, Boren cites the real trump cards which
have been overlooked in the flood of current
speculation. The Soviet defense minister, Yazoz,
and the KGB chief, Kryuchkov, are still "firmly
loyal" to Gorbachev, according to Boren.
`As long as Gorbachev has the army and the
KGB (intelligence and secret police) on his side, it
doesn't really matter what they call him. He
could call himself president, secretary of the
Communist Party, or even archbishop."
As Boren notes, a number of leaders in Eastern
Europe have seen the insecurity of hanging on
to Communist connections. They settled in their
positions of state. These examples must have im-
pressed Gorbachev in setting his own strategy.
21
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401700029-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401700029-6
At the OPA, Boren expects Kerr to start with a
broader discussion of the new demands on intelli-
gence to match the changing times. In the in-
creased global competition, there is more em-
phasis on economic than military. But Boren
warns that we must not let down our security
guard, just in case some "crazy" should suc-
ceed Gorbachev. The Soviets still have loads of
missiles.
"Previously, the emphasis was on protecting
our military secrets," Boren reminded. "Now,
we need to know more about the politics inside
the Soviet Union. It looks like we are going into
arms control and that would require more count-
er-espionage."
In economic competition. Boren expects global
rivals to spy more on business, looking for
profitable new technology. This could lead to
Production aimed at appropriating foreign mar-
kets now dominated by America - a whole new
area of challenges stressing the need of education
for international commerce.
Kerr's remarks can both inspire and inform,
similar to the briefings he regularly gives for
Boren's intelligence committee in closed sessions.
Speaking publicly in Oklahoma, he must be cau-
tious not to spill "some very sensitive things," but
it will still be an earful and one of the few times a
top CIA official emerges on an Oklahoma plat-
form.
Malvina Stephenson is a Tulsa World col-
umnist who lives in Washington. D.C.
2Z.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/23: CIA-RDP99-01448R000401700029-6