FUTURE INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00777R000302720001-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 26, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 15, 1988
• Content Type: REPORT

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ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS
14TH ANNUAL CONVENTION
15 OCTOBER 1988
FUTURE INTELLI~ENCF CHALLENGES
BY ROBERT M. GATES
DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTR-AL INTELLIGENCE
INTRODUCTION
THE THEME OF CHANGE IN THE SOVIET UNION HAS BEEN MUCH IN
THE MEDIA IN RECENT MONTHS AS WE HAVE WATCHED THE EFFORTS OF
MIKHAIL GORBACHEV TO MODERNIZE THE SOVIET ECONOMY AND
CONSOLIDATE HIS POLITICAL POWER. KNOWLEDGE OF RUSSIAN WORDS
SUCH AS "PERESTROIKA" AND "GLASNOST" HAS BECOME COMMONPLACE IN
THE WEST. WITHOUT PARALLEL IN A GENERATION, DEVELOPMENTS IN
THE SOVIET UNION -HAVE CAPTURED THE INTEREST, AND IN SOME
RESPECTS THE IMAGINATION, OF q WIDE AUDIENCE AROUND THE WORLD.
IT IS TYPICAL THAT WE IN THE WEST, AND PARTICULARLY IN THE
UNITED STATES, WITH OUR FOCUS ON PERSONALITIES IN POLITICS,
SHOULD FOCUS ON GORBACHEV'S PERSONNEL MOVES, WHO IS UP AND WHO
IS DOWN, WHO IS IN AND WHO IS OUT. THUS THE SPECIAL ATTENTION
FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE PLENUM AND SUPREME SOVIET
SESSION SOME TWO WEEKS AGO.
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AFTER ALL OF THE TALK OF GLASNOST AND DEMOCRATIZATION,
STALIN WOULD HAVE BEEN PROUD OF THE SMOOTHLY ORCHESTRATED 44
MINUTE SUPREME SOVIET SESSION IN WHICH PEOPLE WERE FIRED,
RETIRED, DEMOTED AND PROMOTED WITH NO DISSENT OR EVEN
DISCUSSION AND 1500 DELEGATES VOTING AS ONE. THE SESSION WAS A
POWER PLAY IN THE GRAND AND TRADITIONAL SOVIET MANNER. WHILE
THE SESSION WAS TESTIMONY TO GORBACHEV'S POWER, THE NEED FOR IT
ALSO WAS A MARK OF HIS VULNERABILITY AND HIS FRUSTRATION AT THE
LACK OF PROGRESS, BUREAUCRATIC OBSTRUCTIONISM AND OPPOSITION IN
THE PARTY TO HIS PROGRAMS AND POLICIES -- AND OF THE DESPERATE
SITUATION FACING THE SOVIET UNION.
WE ARE IN AN EXTRAORDINARY PERIOD IN HISTORY. THE TUMBRELS
ARE ROLLING IN MOSCOW; POLICIES A HALF-CENTURY OLD ARE BEING
OVERTURNED; UNREST STALKS THE CAUCASUS; THERE IS TALK OF
SECESSION IN THE BALTIC STATES; A REVOLUTION FROM ABOVE HAS
BEEN LAUNCHED WITH NO ASSURANCE IT WILL SUCCEED. ELSEWHERE,
COMMUNIST CHINA IS IN THE MIDST OF A MOMENTOUS REFORM PROGRAM
THAT FLIRTS WITH CAPITALISM. A SINO-SOVIET SUMMIT IS LIKELY IN
COMING MONTHS. ONE READS IN THE NEWSPAPERS OF PEACE BREAKING
OUT ALL OVER. THERE HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE CHANGE IN THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION
OVER THE PAST YEAR OR S0, CULMINATING IN THE SIGNING OF THE
TREATY ON INTERMEDIATE RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES AND CONTINUED
NEGOTIATIONS IN A VARIETY OF OTHER FORUMS. THE SOVIETS. ARE
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WITHDRAWING FROM AFGHANISTAN, AND NEGOTIATIONS ARE UNDERWAY ON
CAMBODIA AND ANGOLA. AFTER A DECADE LONG WAR, IRAQ AND IRAN
HAVE AGREED TO A CEASEFIRE. LIBYA AND CHAD HAVE REESTABLISHED
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS. IRAQ AND OTHER ARABS ARE HELPING
LEBANESE CHRISTIANS AGAINST SYRIA. WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING
ON AND WHAT ARE WE TO MAKE OF IT?
IT IS A FACT, AS ANY POLICYMAKER WILL TELL YOU, THAT EVEN
WITH ALL THESE CHANGES -- NEARLY ALL OF THEM WELCOME --
INTELLIGENCE LOOKS AT THE WORLD THROUGH A UNIQUE AND GLOOMY
PRISM. INDEED, IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT WHEN AN INTELLIGENCE
OFFICER SMELLS FLOWERS, HE LOOKS AROUND FOR A COFFIN. IT IS
NOT OUR JOB IN INTELLIGENCE TO BE PROFESSIONAL CURMUGEONS, BUT
IT IS OUR JOB TO LOOK BEHIND THE FACADE -- THE HEADLINES -- AND
TO TRY TO DISCERN REALITY. MOVEMENT TOWARD NEGOTIATED
SOLUTIONS TO INTERNATIONAL TENSIONS AND HOT SPOTS SURELY IS
WELCOME, JUST AS ARE INITIATIVES IN THE SOVIET UNION THAT WE
HOPE MIGHT ULTIMATELY POINT IN THE DIRECTION OF GREATER
OPENNESS, PLURALISM, STRATEGIC STABILITY AND INTERNATIONAL
TRANQUILLITY. BUT THESE TRENDS, AND PARTICULARLY THE PUBLICITY
AND ATMOSPHERICS ATTENDANT TO THEM, MUST NOT BLIND US TO
REALITY. I WANT TO SPEAK TO YOU TODAY ABOUT SOME OF THESE
REALITIES AS WE LOOK AT THE WORLD AND TO CONSIDER THE
IMPLICATIONS FOR INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS. I WANT TO EXAMINE
HOW SOME OLD THREATS ARE CHANGING AND GIVE SHAPE TO SEVERAL NEW
AND OFTEN STILL HIDDEN DANGERS.
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IHE .SOVIET MILITARY
THE FIRST REALITY IS THE CONTINUING EXTRAORDINARY SCOPE AND
SWEEP OF SOVIET MILITARY MODERNIZATION AND WEAPONS RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE SOVIET RHETORIC, WE STILL SEE NO
SLACKENING OF THEIR WEAPONS PRODUCTION OR PROGRAMS, AND. SOVIET
RESEARCH ON NEW WEAPONS CONTINUES APACE. AS THE RATE OF GROWTH
OF OUR DEFENSE BUDGET DECLINES, THEIRS CONTINUES TO GROW,
ALBEIT SLOWLY. WE SEE A RAPID PACE OF SCIENTIFIC AND
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON NEW AND EXOTIC SOVIET WEAPONS,
MANY OF THEM BASED ON NEW PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES. I INCLUDE AMONG
THESE NEW HIGH EXPLOSIVES WITH THE. POTENTIAL TO BE THE ROUGH
EQUIVALENT OF LOW YIELD NUCLEAR WEAPONS, SOVIET WORK ON
"BRILLIANT" PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO CEP AND
HIGH RELIABILITY, SOVIET DEVELOPMENT OF HYPERVELOCITY IMPACT
WEAPONS, AND THEIR PROGRESS ,IN AERODYNAMIC AND NAVAL ADVANCED
PROPULSION TECHNOLOGIES.
UNDERSTANDING THESE DEVELOPMENTS IS CRUCIAL TO U.S.
INTERESTS. IN THESE AND OTHER NEW TECHNOLOGIES, COLLECTION AND
ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS WILL POSE ENORMOUS CHALLENGES TO US. LET
ME GIVE YOU FOUR EXAMPLES:
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS, FOR BOTH
TACTICAL AND STRATEGIC USE, EITHER ON THE GROUND OR IN
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SPACE, REQUIRES THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COLLECTION
SYSTEM CAPABILITIES.
DEVELOPMENTS IN ,THE AREA OF HIGHLY ACCURATE NAVIGATION
TYPIFIED BY THE GLONASS SPACE BASED NAVIGATION SYSTEM
IN THE SOVIET UNION ARE MAKING POSSIBLE INCREASINGLY
ACCURATE AND RELIABLE MOBILE WEAPONS SYSTEMS. AS THESE
TECHNOLOGIES ADVANCE AND MOBILE SYSTEMS REACH THE
PERFORMANCE LEVELS OF SILO-BASED SYSTEMS, COLLECTION.
SYSTEMS MUST DEAL WITH STRATEGIC TARGETS WHICH ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IDENTIFY AND ARE DEPLOYED ON A
VARIETY OF BROADLY DISTRIBUTED PLATFORMS.
CURRENT COLLECTION SYSTEMS ARE NOT .ADEQUATE FOR THE
DETECTION OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE
ACTIVITIES, NOT JUST, IN THE USSR gUT TO HELP COPE WITH
THE WORLDWIDE PROLIFERATION OF THESE WEAPONS. NEW
TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING GENETICALLY ALTERED SUBSTANCES
AND TRACING THEM TO THEIR SOURCE WILL BE NEEDED.
FINALLY, REDUCED OBSERVABILITY OF CERTAIN WEAPON
SYSTEMS OBVIOUSLY MAKES COLLECTION MORE DIFFICULT. IN
A RELATED AREA, COLLECTION AGAINST COUNTER LOW
OBSERVABLE SYSTEMS REQUIRES PRECISION AND DETAIL IF
EFFECTIVE COUNTERS ARE TO BE DEVELOPED. OUR ASSESSMENT
OF SOVIET LOW OBSERVABLE SYSTEMS AND ABILITY ACCURATELY
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TO CHARACTERIZE THE THREAT TO OUR-OWN SYSTEMS DEPEND
UPON OUR ABILITY TO IMPROVE COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
CAPABILITIES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE DEVELOPMENTS IN SOVIET WEAPONS AND
DELIVERY SYSTEMS WILL GREATLY COMPLICATE THE JOB OF ARMS
CONTROL MONITORING, WHICH IS SHAPING UP IN THE CURRENT PERIOD
AS ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT TASKS OF THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY.
ARMS CONTROL
DURING THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, ARMS CONTROL TREATIES COULD BE
COMPLETED, UPDATED OR RATIFIED ON STRATEGIC WEAPONS, A
THRESHHOLD TEST BAN, PEACEFUL NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, DEFENSE AND
SPACE, CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND CONVENTIONAL ARMS. EACH OF THESE
WILL PRESENT SPECIAL MONITORING CHALLENGES TO THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE SOVIETS ARE COMPLYING WITH
PROVISIONS OF THE TREATIES.
OUR EXPERIENCE WITH MONITORING OF PREVIOUS AGREEMENTS, BOTH
RATIFIED AND UNRATIFIED, AND OUR RECENT EXPERIENCE WITH ONSITE
MONITORING OF THE INF TREATY AND THE JOINT VERIFICATION
EXPERIMENT, LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT ONLY THROUGH SYNERGISTIC
USE OF ALL OF OUR~MONITORING TECHNIQUES WILL WE BE ABLE TO MEET
OUR MONITORING OBLIGATIONS. THE MONETARY COST OF ARMS CONTROL
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IS, AND WILL BE, SIGNIFICANT. HIGH TECHNOLOGY AND SPACE BASED
COLLECTION SYSTEMS ARE EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE, BUT WILL BE
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY IN AN ARMS CONTROL WORLD WHERE MILITARILY
SIGNIFICANT CHEATING COULD GAIN THE EDGE FOR AN ADVERSARY IN
NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL OR CONVENTIONAL ARMS. MOREOVER, THESE
RESOURCES ARE ONLY INDEPENDENT MEANS FOR ASSESSING COMPLIANCE
WITH TREATY PROVISIONS.
ON SITE INSPECTION AND OTHER COOPERATIVE MEASURES WILL ADD
SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NATION'S MONITORING AND VERIFICATION
CAPABILITIES. THESE HAVE THEIR COSTS AND LIMITATIONS,
HOWEVER: THEY REQUIRE THE COOPERATION OF THE SIGNATORIES AND
THEREFORE CAN BE CUT OFF OR INTERFERED WITH AT ANY TIME.
FURTHERMORE,WE MUST BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT THE SAME
INTRUSIVENESS WE EXPECT THE OTHER SIDE TO ACCEPT. IN THE ON
SITE WORLD, WE MUST BE PREPARED TO RISK EXPOSURE OF OUR-MOST
.SENSITIVE PUBLIC .AND PRIVATE TECHNOLOGIES IF WE WANT SIMILAR
ACCESS ELSEWHERE. THE COUNTERINTELLIGENCE RISKS OF SOVIET
INSPECTORS IN THE U.S. CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.
LET ME SAY A WORD ABOUT SPECIFIC MONITORING TASKS.
-- WITH RESPECT TO START, MOBILE MISSILES ARE PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT FOR US TO MONITOR. IT WILL TAKE A
COMBINATION OF NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS AND ON SITE
INSPECTIONS., AS WELL AS OTHER COOPERATIVE MEASURES, TO
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DEAL WITH THIS AND, EVEN THEN, THERE WILL BE PROBLEMS.
AS STRATEGIC SYSTEMS GET SMALLER, AS IN THE CASE OF
CRUISE MISSILES, OUR CHALLENGE WILL BECOME EVEN
GREATER. START ALSO WOULD REQUIRE US TO MONITOR A
PRODIGIOUS ARRAY OF WEAPONS SYSTEMS AND FACILITIES.
THE INF TREATY GIVES THE t7NITED STATES THE RIGHT TO
CONDUCT INSPECTIONS AT 117 SOVIET FACILITIES, BUT START
COULD INVOLVE AS MANY AS 2500. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE STRAIN ON EXISTING U.S. NATIONAL
TECHNICAL COLLECTION RESOURCES WILL BE STAGGERING.
ACCORDINGLY,, WE MUST ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR NEW AND
IMPROVED TECHNICAL COLLECTION CAPABILITIES TO MEET THE
DEMANDS OF ARMS CONTROL AND STRATEGIC FORCE MONITORING
WITH INCREASED RELIANCE ON AUTOMATED .SYSTEMS FOR
TASKING AND EXPLOITING THESE ASSETS.
-- IN THE NUCLEAR TESTING ARENA, OUR WELL-ESTABLISHED
NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS WHICH DEPEND ON SEISMIC DATA,
WILL BE AUGMENTED BY CORRTEX, THE U.S. METHOD FOR
HYDRODYNAMIC MEASUREMENT OF NUCLEAR TEST YIELDS.
CHEMICAL WEAPONS PRESENT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DIFFICULT
MONITORING CHALLENGE FOR US. NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS
CAN ONLY DO SO MUCH. THERE ARE FEW SIGNATURES FOR
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PRODUCTION AND STORAGE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, AND LITTLE
ON THE HORIZON THAT WILL HELP US SUBSTANTIALLY IN THIS
AREA.
CONVENTIONAL ARMS CONTROL ALSO WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
ON THE AGENDA IN THE NEXT US ADMINISTRATION. WE EXPECT
THE NEXT FIVE YEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF DYNAMIC CHANGE IN
SOVIET. THEATRE FORCES. THE SOVIETS SEE A NEED TO
RESPOND WITH NEW SYSTEMS AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES TO
A REVOLUTION IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY THAT THREATENS
THEIR ADVANTAGE IN GROUND FORCES.. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE LEADERSHIP HAS CALLED FOR POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TO
SECURITY PROBLEMS THAT RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOVIET
FORCES TO APPEAR LESS THREATENING BUT NO LESS CAPABLE.
THE LEADERSHIP ALSO WILL BE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO REDUCE.
THE WEIGHT OF-THE DEFENSE BURDEN. OUR TASKS WILL
INCLUDE:
- DISTINGUISHING CHANGES IN CONVENTIONAL FORCES IN
RESPONSE TO NEW TECHNOLOGIES FROM THOSE THAT MIGHT
.RESULT FROM CHANGES IN DOCTRINE OR ECONOMIC
PRIORITIES.
INCREASING OUR DETAILED ANALYTIC EFFORT ON THE
SOVIET FORCES TO COVER ALL OF EUROPE FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO THE URALS, FAR BEYOND THE MORE LIMITED
FOCUS OF THE MBFR TALKS.
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- IF AN AGREEMENT ON REDUCTION OF CONVENTIONAL FORCES
iS ACHIEVED, SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING COLLECTION
AND ANALYTICAL RESOURCES TO SUPPORT MONITORING AND
ON SITE INSPECTION OF HUNDREDS OF INSTALLATIONS.
BEYOND WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT, PROCUREMENT, AND DEPLOYMENT
PROBLEMS, BEYOND ARMS CONTROL, IS THE CHALLENGE OF
UNDERSTANDING~AND RESPONDING TO NEW REQUIREMENTS IN THE
TURBULENT SOVIET INTERNAL AND FOREIGN POLICY ARENAS. A KEY
REQUIREMENT FOR US IS TO ESTABLISH REALISTIC CRITERIA BY WHICH
WE CAN JUDGE IN THE COMING MONTHS AND YEARS WHETHER POLITICAL
AND ECONOMIC CHANGE I-N THE SOVIET UNION IS GENUINELY RESHAPING
THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE SYSTEM -- OR WHETHER THE TOTALITARIAN
STRUCTURE OF THE SOVIET UNION, INCLUDING THE INSTRUMENTS OF
CENTRAL CONTROL AND REPRESSION, ENDURES DISCREETLY IN THE
SHADOWS, AVAILABLE AT THE BECKON OF GORBACHEV'S SUCCESSOR, OR
EVEN FOR GORBACHEV.
CW/BW
THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT TO WORLD PEACE AND TO THE
SECURITY OF THE UNITED .STATES AND ITS ALLIES MAY WELL COME FROM
THE PROLIFERATION OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE
CAPABILITIES IN THE THIRD WORLD. INDEED, ALMOST UNNOTICED,
CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAVE BECOME THE "POOR MAN'S ATOMIC BOMB." NOW
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THAT THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR HAS BROKEN THE MORAL BARRIERS AGAINST
THEIR USE, SOME 20 THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES ARE DEVELOPING SUCH
WEAPONS. UNLIKE OTHER WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, THESE
LOW-TECHNOLOGY HIGH-IMPACT ARMS ARE POTENTIAL ADDITIONS TO THE
ARSENALS OF EVEN THE MOST BACKWARD DEVELOPING NATIONS. INDEED,
LIBYA HAS NEARLY COMPLETED WORK ON ONE OF THE LARGEST CHEMICAL
WEAPONS FACILITIES IN THE WORLD -- WITH THE HELP OF NEARLY A
DOZEN NATIONS -- EAST AND WEST. ESSENTIALLY, THE TECHNOLOGY
NEEDED TO PRODUCE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
COMPLICATED THAN THAT REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FERTILIZER OR SOFT
DRINKS . -
MOST COUNTRIES INVOLVED WITH CHEMICAL WARFARE ALSO HAVE
BIOLOGICAL WARFARE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS. THIRD WORLD PROGRAMS
INVOLVE EITHER LIVING AGENTS OR TOXINS. LIVING AGENTS, SUCH AS
ANTHRAX, VARY FROM INCAPACITATING TO LETHAL, REQUIRE THE LEAST
RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY. TOXINS, WHICH USUALLY REQUIRE MORE
TECHNOLOGICAL SOPHISTICATION, INCLUDE NATURALLY EXISTING
POISONS FOUND IN PLANTS AND BACTERIAL OR FUNGAL AGENTS.
MISSILE TECHNOL~~Y
THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES WILL NOT LACK MEANS TO DELIVER SUCH
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL AGENTS AS THEY MAY DEVELOP. IN RECENT
YEARS, MISSILE TECHNOLOGY HAS PROLIFERATED, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, AND THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH
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AMERICA. BY THE YEAR 2000, AT LEAST 15 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
WILL EITHER HAVE PRODUCED OR BE ABLE TO BUILD THEIR OWN
BALLISTIC .MISSILES. WHILE THESE EARLY=GENERATION MISSILES MAY
BE CRUDE AND INACCURATE BY DEVELOPED COUNTRY STANDARDS, THEY
COULD PROVE EXTREMELY POTENT IN A REGIONAL SETTING --
ESPECIALLY IF PROVIDED WITH CHEMICAL,. BIOLOGICAL,. OR NUCLEAR
WARHEADS.
NON-INDIGENOUS MISSILES ARE ALREADY CHANGING THE FACE OF
WARFARE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BOTH IRAN AND IRAQ USED
CONVENTIONALLY ARMED MISSILE AS WEAPONS OF TERROR AGAINST
CIVILIAN POPULATIONS. THE CHINESE SALE OF CSS-2
INTERMEDIATE-RANGE .MISSILES TO SAUDI ARABIA REPRESENTS ANOTHER
DISTURBING DEVELOPMENT -- THE TRANSFER OF COMPLETE MISSILE
SYSTEMS. STEMMING THE FLOW OF MISSILES AND MISSILE TECHNOLOGY
IS A DIFFICULT CHALLENGE.
TERRORISM
OUR DISCUSSION OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE IS A
NATURAL LEAD-IN TO WHAT I CALL "MEDIUM-TECH TERRORISM." THIS
REPRESENTS NO GREAT ADVANCE IN TERRORIST SOPHISTICATION BUT
RATHER THE INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT
SOCIETY. IN NOVEMBER 1987, FOR EXAMPLE, AGENTS OF THE POPULAR
FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE-GENERAL COMMAND ATTACKED
AN ISRAELI MILITARY CAMP, CROSSING THE BORDER FROM LEBANON ON
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HANG GLIDERS EQUIPPED WITH NIGHT VISION DEVICES TO AID
NAVIGATION. IN ANOTHER CASE, AIRCRAFT SABOTEURS ATTEMPTED TO
SMUGGLE AN INTEGRATED CIRCUIT TIMER AND DETONATOR DISGUISED AS
A HAND. CALCULATOR ABOARD AN ISRAELI JET. IN STILL ANOTHER
EXAMPLE OF MEDIUM-TECH TERRORISM, WEST GERMAN RADICALS ARE
USING COMPUTERS TO SEND THREATENING MESSAGES TO POTENTIAL
TARGETS AND TO COMMUNICATE BETWEEN CELLS -- BELIEVING THAT SUCH
CHANNELS ARE MORE SECURE THAN THE POST OR TELEPHONE SYSTEMS.
NARCOTICS
THE THREAT OF TERRORISM IS IN SOME RESPECTS MINOR COMPARED
WITH THE MULTIPLE DANGERS POSED BY THE INTERNATIONAL MARCOTICS
TRADE. THIS HAS BECOME A HUGE MULTINATIONAL BUSINESS. LET ME
GIVE YOU A FEW STATISTICS. THE WORLDWIDE DRUG TRADE GENERATES
MORE THAN $300 BILLION A YEAR, $110 BILLION IN THE UNITED
STATES ALONE. LAST YEAR'S COCA CROP PRODUCED SOME 400 TONS OF
COCAINE, ROUGHLY FOUR TIMES ESTIMATED US DEMAND. DURING THE
SAME YEAR, WORLDWIDE OPIUM PRODUCTION WAS ESTIMATED AT JUST
OVER 2400 METRIC TONS. 2400. TONS OF OPIUM TRANSFORMED INTO
HEROIN EQUALS 240 BILLION FIXES! AND THAT'S IN A SINGLE YEAR.
DESPITE A FEW POSITIVE TRENDS -- ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS OF
REGIONAL COOPERATION AND LEGAL REFORM -- I FEAR THAT THE
SITUATION WILL GET MUCH WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER.
PRODUCTION LEVELS ARE SO HIGH THAT, DESPITE RECORD SEIZURES
DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS, PRICES ARE FALLING AND PURITY LEVELS
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ARE INCREASING. GIVEN THAT TOTAL WORLD DEMAND FOR HARD DRUGS
CAN BE SUPPLIED FROM CROPS GROWN ON A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND
HECTARES OF LAND, IT IS OBVIOUS THAT EVEN THE MOST SUCCESSFUL
EFFORTS OF A SINGLE COUNTRY OR GROUP OF COUNTRIES CANNOT SOLVE
THE PROBLEM.
ALTHOUGH IT IS EASY ENOUGH FOR .THE MAJOR TRAFFICKING
ORGANIZATIONS TO SWITCH -- METHODS, ROUTES, OR COUNTRIES --
MANY ARE SO POWERFUL THAT THEY CHOOSE TO STAND AND FIGHT.
SOMETIMES THIS FIGHT TAKES THE FORM OF ACTIVE GUERRILLA
WARFARE, TERRORISM, AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF "NO-GO" AREAS
WITHIN COUNTRIES. MORE OFTEN THE BATTLE IS WAGED THROUGH
CORRUPTION AND COOPTATION. POLICE OFFICIALS, JUDGES,
POLITICIANS, AND EDITORS ARE BOUGHT. PUBLIC OPINION IS COURTED
THROUGH PUBLIC WORKS, LAVISH CHARITY, AND PATRIOTIC POSTURING.
IN SOME COUNTRIES, TRAFFICKERS ARE RUNNING FOR OFFICE AND
WINNING. IT MAY ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WE ARE FACED
WITH A FREELY ELECTED, LEGAL NARCO-GOVERNMENT IN A MAJOR
COUNTRY.
AIDS
GOING FROM THE SYMBOLIC PLAGUE OF DRUGS TO A REAL PLAGUE, I
NOW TURN TO THE AIDS PANDEMIC. AIDS, UNLIKE MOST IF-NOT ALL OF
THE DREAD PLAGUES OF THE PAST, TENDS NOT TO STRIKE THE OLD, THE
VERY YOUNG,.THE WEAK, AND THE ILL. RATHER IT STRIKES THE
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WORKING POPULATION WHILE LEAVING THE DEPENDENT POPULATION
RELATIVELY UNSCATHED. MOREOVER, IN MANY AREAS OF THE THIRD
WORLD, IT HAS A DISPROPORTIONATE EFFECT ON EDUCATED,
MIDDLE-CLASS URBANITES -- THE VERY CADRE THAT NO DEVELOPING
COUNTRY CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. WHEN WE CONSIDER THE HAVOC WREAKED
IN THE PAST BY PANDEMICS SUCH AS THE BUBONIC PLAGUE AND THE
BLACK DEATH, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OF THIS NEW OUTBREAK? AT A
MINIMUM, IT WILL SERIOUSLY UNDERMINE THE POLITICAL STABILITY,
ECONOMIC PROGRESS, AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING OF THE MOST AFFECTED
COUNTRIES. SOME ECONOMIES -- OR AT LEAST THEIR INDUSTRIAL
STRUCTURES -- MAY COLLAPSE, AND SOME COUNTRIES COULD BECOME
VIRTUALLY UNGOVERNABLE.
COUNTERINTELlIGEN F
THE LAST AREA OF REQUIREMENTS I WANT TO MENTION TODAY IS
COUNTERINTELLIGENCE. DESPITE RECENT ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE USSR AND IMPROVED US-SOVIET RELATIONS, AN EFFECTIVE AND
COMPREHENSIVE COUNTERINTELLIGENCE PROGRAM HAS NEVER BEEN MORE
IMPORTANT TO OUR NATION. SINCE GORBACHEV'S ACCESSION TO POWER,
THE HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE THREAT AGAINST US HAS GROWN. THE
NUMBER OF OPERATIONS AGAINST US HAS CERTAINLY INCREASED. OVER
THE PAST THREE YEARS, WE HAVE DISCOVERED MORE PENETRATIONS OF
THE U.S. DEFENSE AND INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITIES THAN AT ANY TIME
IN OUR HISTORY. THE COST OF THESE COMPROMISES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. ALTHOUGH MANY COUNTRIES ENGAGE IN
1S
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INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, THE SOVIET
INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, THE KGB AND GRU, REPRESENT BY FAR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE THREAT IN TERMS OF SIZE, ABILITY
AND INTENT TO ACT AGAINST U.S. INTERESTS, BOTH AT HOME AND
ABROAD. AND DESPITE IMPROVED US-SOVIET RELATIONS, WE HAVE SEEN
AN INCREASE THIS YEAR OF SOVIET ATTEMPTS TO RECRUIT U.S.
SOURCES.
AN EFFECTIVE COUNTERINTELLIGENCE PROGRAM REQUIRES VIGILANCE
ON BOTH THE DEFENSIVE AND OFFENSIVE FRONTS. FIRST, WE MUST
PROTECT SENSITIVE INFORMATION, TECHNOLOGY, EQUIPMENT AND
PERSONNEL. SECOND, WE MUST DETECT, MONITOR AND COUNTER THE
ACTIONS OF HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES. AS THE SOVIET BLOC
INTELLIGENCE SERVICES BECOME MORE SOPHISTICATED, OUR
COUNTERINTELLIGENCE MEASURES MUST GROW CORRESPONDINGLY
STRONGER. RECENT CASES ALSO POINT TO THE IMPORTANCE OF
TENACITY AND OF CLOSE COOPERATION AMONG THE VARIOUS AGENCIES
WITHIN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY. I BELIEVE THAT THE CHOICE
OF VLADIMIR KRYUCHKOV AS CHAIRMAN OF THE KGB LIKELY WILL MEAN
AN INTENSIFICATION OF SOVIET INTELLIGENCE EFFORTS AGAINST THE
UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES. COUNTERING THIS CHALLENGE WILL
BE ONE OF OUR MOST DIFFICULT REQUIREMENTS IN THE FUTURE.
~r
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CONCLUSION
I MENTIONED IN JEST AT THE OUTSET THE DETAIL WITH WHICH MY
REMARKS TO AFIO IN OCTOBER 1985 WERE REPORTED BY JOHN RANELAGH
IN HIS BOOK ON CIA. I SPOKE THEN OF TRENDS THAT I THOUGHT
WOULD DOMINATE THE INTELLIGENCE BUSINESS. RANELAGH INTERPRETED
MY REMARKS IN THE FOLLOWING WAY: "THE. AGENCY WAS BECOMING AN
INSTRUMENT FOR APPLIED SOCIAL SCIENCE, EVER LESS OPERATIONAL
'AND EVER MORE SEEKING TO FILL IN THE BLANK SPACES AT
FORECASTING. THE RANGE OF SUBJECTS SHOWED AN AGENCY TERRIFIED
OF MISSING ANYTHING. IT WAS ANOTHER BUREAUCRACY SAYING IT
COVERED THE WATERFRONT, THE REVERSE OF ITS STARTING ATTITUDE OF
BEING THE WORTHY CHALLENGER TO THE STATE DEPARTMENT OR THE
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OF BEING THE AGENCY THAT IDENTIFIED A
FEW ESSENTIAL THEMES AND MASTERED THEM. NOW IT WAS, IN EFFECT,
A SECRET EXTENSION OF THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS."
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PROLIFERATION OF NEW REQUIREMENTS ON
US, THE RISK OF BEING SPREAD SO BROADLY THAT WE HAVE NO DEPTH,
THE DANGER OF LOSING FOCUS ON OUR PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY TO
COVER THE SOVIET UNION AND PROVIDE WARNING OF HOSTILE ACTIONS
AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, ARE CONTINUING WORRIES AMONG
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY MANAGERS, EVEN FOR WE BUREAUCRATS.
HOWEVER, MANY OF THE PROBLEMS APART FROM THE SOVIET UNION, SUCH
AS THOSE I HAVE DESCRIBED TODAY, ARf ISSUES WITH DIRECT IMPACT
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ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES AND WHERE UNIQUE
INTELLIGENCE iNFORMATION IS CRITICAL TO DIPLOMATIC OR ANY OTHER
ACTION. WE IN INTELLIGENCE CANNOT NEGLECT SUCH MAJOR PROBLEMS
AS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROLIFERATION AMONG MANY
COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD, THE PROLIFERATION OF MISSILE
TECHNOLOGIES, OUR RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONTINUING AND IMPROVING
OUR EFFORTS TO HELP THE NATION'S COUNTERNARCOTICS PROGRAM,
COPING WITH TERRORISM, DEVELOPMENTS IN THE THIRD WORLD, AND A
HOST OF OTHER PROBLEMS. THE REQUIREMENTS PROCESS IN WHICH WE
TRY TO INVOLVE THE POLICY COMMUNITY EVER MORE AGGRESSIVELY HAS
A TENDENCY TO EXPAND, NOT TO CONTRACT, THE REQUIREMENTS FACING
US.
NEITHER I NOR THE DIRECTOR SEE IT AS OUR RESPONSIBILITY TO
CHALLENGE THE DEPARTMENTS OF STATE. OR DEFENSE. RATHER, WE SEEK
TO PROVIDE THEM AND THE WHITE HOUSE WITH THE INFORMATION TO
ASSIST IN AND INFORM DECISION-MAKING AND, WHERE APPROPRIATE,
THE COVERT MECHANISMS NEEDED TO IMPLEMENT APPROVED POLICY. OUR
JOB IS NOT TO CHALLENGE THEIR POLICYMAKING ROLE OR TO PROVIDE
AN ALTERNATIVE POLICY BUT INSTEAD TO SUPPORT THEM -- EVEN
THOUGH THAT SUPPORT WITH SOME FREGIUENCY INVOLVES TELLING THEM
WHAT THEY MIGHT NOT WISH TO HEAR. THIS IS THE ROLE ENVISIONED
FOR CIA 40 YEARS AGO -- NOT AN ALTERNATIVE POWER OR POLICY
CENTER. IN AN OTHERWISE GENERALLY LAUDABLE BOOK, RANELAGH HAS
THIS WRONG.
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IN AN ERA OF AGAIN CONSTRAINED SPENDING FOR DEFENSE AND
INTELLIGENCE,FINDiNG THE RESOURCES TO MEET THE RESPONSIBILITIES
IMPOSED UPON US BY THE NEEDS OF THE NATION AND THE REQUIREMENTS
OF ITS LEADERS IS DAUNTING. WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME FROM?
PEOPLE POINT TO THE INCREASE IN RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO US IN
RECENT YEARS. A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THOSE RESOURCES WERE
REQUIRED SIMPLY TO RECOVER FROM THE DRAWDOWNS IN OUR
CAPABILTIES IN THE 1970S, A TIME WHEN U.S. INTELLIGENCE LOST
SOME FIFTY PERCENT OF ITS PEOPLE AND FORTY PERCENT OF ITS
SPENDING POWER. WE HAVE REBUILT SUBSTANTIAL CAPABILITIES, BUT
THE REQUIREMENTS PLACED UPON US NAVE GROWN EXPLOSIVELY.
THERE ARE NEW INITIATIVES UNDERWAY TO EXPAND OUR
CAPABILITIES, BUT THE EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCHES MUST
WORK TOGETHER TO ENSURE THAT WE ARE SIMPLY NOT PLUGGING HOLES
IN THE DIKE OR DEALING WITH TODAY'S PROBLEMS BUT THAT WE ARE
LOOKING AND PLANNING AHEAD FIVE, TEN, EVEN FIFTEEN YEARS TO
ENSURE THAT THE RESOURCES AND CAPABILITIES WE WILL NEED TO
RESPOND TO THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE LATE 1990S ARE AVAILABLE
WHEN WE NEED THEM.
IN RECOUNTING THE INTELLIGENCE PROBLEMS AND DANGERS OF THE
REAL WORLD, I HAVE NOT INTENDED TO COST YOU A NIGHT'S SLEEP BY
WARNING OF A PANOPLY OF THINGS THAT GO BUMP iN THE NIGHT. MY
PURPOSE HAS BEEN TO REMIND YOU THAT BEHIND THE HEADLINES ARE
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BOTH ENDURING CHALLENGES AND A WHOLE RANGE OF NEW ONES THAT WE
MUST RECOGNIZE AND DEAL WITH. THE WORLD IS NOT' A STATIC
PLACE. PERMANENT PEACE AND SECURITY ARE DREAMS. REAL PEACE,
STABILITY, AND .OUR NATIONAL WELL-BEING CAN BE ACHIEVE-D AND
PRESERVED.ONLY BY REALISTIC AWARENESS OF DEVELOPMENTS AROUND US
AND BY THE CAPABILITY AND WILL TO OUTTHINK AND OUTPLAN OUR
ADVERSARIES AND TO ANTICIPATE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS. OUR
COUNTRY'S ABILITY TO DO THIS WILL DEPEND UPON-FIRST OF ALL ON
FAR SIGHTED RECOGNITION BY OUR INTELLIGENCE SERVICES OF NEW
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT WILL CONFRONT THE NATION AND
ITS GOVERNMENT.
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