HERE IS THE DRAFT RECEIVED FROM THE OFFICE OF GLOBAL ISSUES FOR YOUR SPEECH ON FUTURE WORLD TRENDS.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00777R000301990001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 8, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 18, 1988
• Content Type: LETTER

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PAO 88-0065
February 18, 1988
Here is the draft received from the Office of Global Issues for your
speech on future world trends. The OGI draft remarks focus on three trends:
1) the decline in the real value of all commodities; 2) the spread of AIDS;
and 3) a decline in the "governability" of certain Third World nations.
My speechwriters are ready to work on this draft, but Diane suggested. that
you might want to take a look at it first to determine if the trends cited are
appropriate for your speech.
Let me know if we can help.
Bill Baker
STAT
STAT
Attachments:
As Stated
DC I /PAO/:Jt1q
Distribution:
Oriq. - DDCI
1 - D/PAO
1 ER
1 PAO Registry
1 - Ames (Hold Cony)
1 -
1 -
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DEVELOPMENTS. DEMOCRACY, WHICH ONLY A FEW YEARS AGO SEEMED
A DISTANT HOPE IN MANY COUNTRIES, IS NOW FAST BECOMING A
REALITY FROM ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL TO THE PHILIPPINES AND
SOUTH KOREA. MANY COUNTRIES ARE TAKING A NEW, MORE
FAVORABLE LOOK AT CAPITALISM AND THE MARKET SYSTEM, WHILE
THE COMMUNIST ECONOMIC MODEL FALLS IN EVER-DEEPER DISREPUTE.
IN THE THIRD WORLD AS A WHOLE--THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT IN EVERY.
COUNTRY--FOOD SUPPLY IS GROWING FASTER THAN POPULATION AND.
THE MALTHUSIAN SPECTER IS RECEDING. MOREOVER, MOST OF THE
THIRD WORLD DEBTORS--AND'NOT JUST THE ASIAN NIUS--HAVE
TURNED THEIR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES AROUND AND ARE
MAINTAINING TRADE SURPLUSES AND EXPORTING A BROADER RANGE OF
PRODUCTS THAN EVERJt. BEFORE.
YET ARE ARE OTHER TRENDS THAT ARE NOT SO ENCOURAGING.
IN PARTICULAR, I WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS THREE TRENDS THAT,
TAKEN TOGETHER, HAVE ME WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE LESS
Vt
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES AND THE FUTUREAUS INTERESTS IN THE THIRD
WORLD. THESE TRENDS ARE: THE SECULAR DECLINE IN THE REAL
VALUE OF ALMOST ALL COMMODITIES; THE SPREAD OF AIDS IN THE
THIRD WORLD; AND, FINALLY, A DECLINE IN THE "GOVERNABILITY"
OF MANY, PERHAPS MOST, THIRD WORLD NATIONS.
A FEW MONTHS AGO I READ AN ARTICLE IN THE SCIENTIFIC
_RICAN ENTITLED "BEYOND THE ERA OF MATERIALS." ACCORDING
TO THIS ARTICLE B::' LARSON, ROSS, AND WILLIAMS, THE
'_NDUSTL I-.AL COUNTRIES "ARE NOW LEAVING THE ERA OF MATERIALS,
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WHICH SPANNED THE TWO CENTURIES FOLLOWING THE ADVENT OF THE
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, AND ARE MOVING INTO A NEW ERA IN
WHICH THE LEVEL OF MATERIALS WILL NO LONGER BE AN IMPORTANT
INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC PROGRESS." THEY GIVE FOUR REASONS FOR
THIS: THE SUBSTITUTION OF COMMON FOR RARE MATERIALS; THE
INCREASED EFFICIENCY OF MATERIALS USE; THE SATURATION OF
MARKETS; AND THE LOW MATERIALS CONTENT OF EVOLVING NEW
MARKETS. THEY BELIEVE THAT MARKET SATURATION IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT OF.THESE REASONS AND ARGUE` PERSUASIVELY THAT
REPLACEMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ESTABLISHED NETWORKS OF
HOUSING, FACTORIES, ROADS-, AND THE LIKE CANNOT-PROVIDE-THE-
KIND OF LONG-TERM STIMULUS THAT WAS ONCE PROVIDED BY THEIR
INITIAL CREATION.
STUDIES DONE AT THE CIA STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS VIEW--
THOUGH PERHAPS GIVING MORE EMPHASIS TO TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
AND LESS TO MARKET SATURATION. DESPITE OCCASIONAL UPSWINGS
IN THE REAL VALUE OF COMMODITIES, SUCH AS THE RAPID RUNUP IN
OIL PRICES DURING THE 1970s, THE TREND OVER THE DECADES HAS
BEEN DOWN. OVER TIME, THE PRICES OF EVERYTHING FROM OIL TO
URANIUM, FROM COPPER TO BAUXITE, FROM SUGAR TO WHEAT HAVE
RISEN LESS RAPIDLY THAN OVERALL INFLATION. I DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THESE TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO BE REVERSED. IF ANYTHING,
THEY WILL INTENSIFY.
MINERAL MARKETS HAVE BEEN HIT ESPECIALLY HARD, WITH
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES PROVIDING A GROWING ARRAY OF
SUBSTITUTES FOR RAW MATERIALS, PARTICULARLY COPPER, IRON,
BAUXITE, ANP TIN. FOR EXAMPLE, COPPED WIRE IS BEING
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REPLACED BY FIBER OPTICS, LINE-OF-SIGHT MICROWAVE SYSTEMS,
AND SATELLITE COMMUNICATION NETWORKS. ALTHOUGH THE
DEVELOPMENT COSTS OF THESE NEW SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN HIGH, THE
ADDITIONAL COST PER COMMUNICATION CHANNEL IS NEGLIGIBLE.
SIMILAR TRENDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE IN THE TIN AND IRON
MARKETS AS LIGHTER-WEIGHT, LOWER-COST SUBSTITUTES -- SUCH AS
HIGH-STRENGTH PAPERS, PLASTICS, AND CERAMICS -- ARE CREATED.
IN ADDITION, THE DEMAND FOR TIN AND IRON IS BEING WEAKENED
BY NEW MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES.THAT REQUIRE LESS TIN PER
UNIT OF AREA TIN-PLATED OR LESS IRON PER TON OF MILLED.
STEEL.
IN MINERALS, TECHNOLOGY HAS MAINLY ACTED TO REDUCE
DEMAND; IN AGRICULTURE, IT HAS ACTED TO INCREASE SUPPLY.
INDIA HAS GONE FROM A MAJOR IMPORTER OF WHEAT TO A NEW
EXPORTER IN JUST A FEW YEARS, WHILE INDONESIA, ONCE THE
WORLD'S LARGEST IMPORTER OF RICE, HAS BECOME SELF-
SUFFICIENT. IN TRIUMPHS OF TECHNOLOGY OVER ECONOMICS -- AND
EVEN OVER COMMON SENSE -- THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY IS NOW A
NET EXPORTER OF SUGAR, AND SAUDI ARABIA HAS A SURPLUS OF
WHEAT! USING A VARIETY OF TECHNOLOGIES RANGING FROM GENETIC
ENGINEERING TO IMPROVED SOIL MANAGEMENT, THE AGRICULTURAL
SUPERPOWERS -- COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE UNITED STATES, CANADA,
AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, AND ARGENTINA -- ARE PRODUCING EVER
GREATER QUANTITIES WHILE THEIR FORMER MARKETS ARE ACHIEVING
AS FRICE_, S T' r'LI lf~ 71
PITv".ET, FA??.I:R S . PRODUCE ~_.-iLr,
MORE IN !v TEY ORJ TO MAIt7TIAN THEIR INCOMES. AND THE
DOWNWARD SPIRAL INTENSIFIES.
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BEFORE I LEAVE THE SUBJECT OF THE SECULAR DECLINE IN
THE VALUE OF COMMODITIES, I WOULD LIKE TO MENTION ONE OTHER
COMMODITY THAT IS FAST LOSING ITS FORMER VALUE -- UNSKILLED
LABOR. HERE TOO THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGY CAN BE SEEN. THE
TIME MAY BE COMING WHEN UNSKILLED LABOR WILL CEASE TO BE A
FACTOR OF PRODUCTION, AND LABOR-INTENSIVE ASSEMBLY
INDUSTRIES WILL NO LONGER BE ABLE TO COMPETE. ROBOTS MAY
SOON BE ABLE TO ASSEMBLE ELECTRONICS AND SEW BASEBALLS MORE
CHEAPLY THAN THE LOWEST-PAID ASIANS AND LATIN AMERICANS.
AND THE BOUNDARY LINE BETWEEN UNSKILLED, UNUSABLE LABOR AND
SKILLED, USABLE LABOR WILL RISE, LEAVING A LARGE PART OF THE
LABOR FORCE IN MANY COUNTRIES BELOW THE LINE. MOREOVER,
STRATEGIES THAT HAVE BROUGHT RELATIVE PROSPERITY IN MANY
ADVANCING THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES'WILL'HAVE TO BE RETHOUGHT.
THE INITIAL EFFECT OF THE SECULAR DECLINE IN REAL-
COMMODITY PRICES HAS BEEN THE DIVISION OF THE THIRD WORLD
BETWEEN THE NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES--THE SO-CALLED
NICs -- AND THE COMMODITY-DEPENDENT COUNTRIES. AS THE WORLD
ECONOMY BECOMES LESS DEPENDENT ON COMMODITIES, THE
COMMODITY-DEPENDENT COUNTRIES TEND TO FALL OUT OF THE WORLD
ECONOMY. EVEN DURING THE OCCASIONAL UPTICK IN DEMAND FOR
MINERAL X OR CROP Y, IT IS RARELY THE MOST DEPENDENT
COUNTRIES THAT PROFIT. BOLIVIA,'FOR7-EXAMPLE, IS BOTH-THE
COUNTRY MOST DEPENDENT ON TIN-`EXPORTS AND THE HIGHEST-COST
~' r N -ESS I' CIT_? T lire N C'''
~, AND i?:f~L?:YSi:~., UST- i: -~l_,i_.i,., A:'~L I'3R:=.ZIL, EVEN A
PRODUCERS
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SHARP INCREASE IN TIN DEMAND IS UNLIKELY TO BE REFLECTED IN
BOLIVIA'S BALANCE OF TRADE.
ONLY THE NICs, WHOSE EXPORTS ARE IN CONSTANT DEMAND BY
THE WORLD ECONOMY, ARE MAKING A SUSTAINED ADVANCE. EUROPE,
JAPAN, AND THE UNITED STATES STILL WANT INEXPENSIVE, WELL-
MADE CARS AND TEXTILES AND SHIPS AND CONSUMER ELECTRONICS.
BUT EVEN THE NICs MAY NOT BE SAFE FOREVER. TO THE EXTENT
THAT THEY OWE THEIR SUCCESS TO CHEAP UNSKILLED AND
SEMISKILLED LABOR, THEY ARE VULNERABLE TO THE_COMING OF THE
ERA OF. ROBOTICS. AT THIS POINT THE NICs WILL BEGIN TO
DISAPPEAR. SOME WILL GRADUATE INTO THE DEVELOPED WORLD AND
USE THEIR INCREASINGLY SKILLED AND WELL PAID LABOR FORCES TO
COMPETE ON AN EQUAL BASIS. WITH THE OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED
NATIONS. THE REST WILL FIND THAT THEIR CHEAP LABOR IS ONLY
SPASMODIC DEMAND AND WILL FALL BACK INTO THE RANKS OF
COMMODITY-DEPENDENT NATIONS.
THE SECOND TREND I WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS IS THE SPREAD
OF AIDS IN THE THIRD WORLD. AIDS IS DIFFERENT FROM THE
GREAT PLAGUES OF THE PAST IN ONE IMPORTANT ASPECT. UNLIKE
THE BLACK DEATH THAT RAVAGED EUROPE AND ASIA IN THE
FOURTEENTH CENTURY OR THE SMALLPOX THAT DECIMATED AMERICAN
INDIAN POPULATIONS AFTER EUROPEAN CONTACT, AIDS TENDS NOT TO
STRIKE THE OLD, THE VERY YOUNG, AND THE WEAK. RATHER IT
STRIKES THE WORKING POPULATION, WHILE LEAVING THE DEPENDENT
N
T}'-ilr
\_'U C.Ti~_: .TIES AP,E
LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DATA FROM RURAL AREAS, THEY SUGGEST
THAT THE TYPICAL AIDS VICTIM IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICA -- AND
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PROBABLY ELSEWHERE IN THE THIRD WORLD -- IS BETWEEN THE AGES
OF 15 AND 55, LIVES IN AN URBAN SETTING, HAS-AN INCOME AND
EDUCATION ABOVE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE, AND IS PROBABLY A
BUREAUCRAT, SOLDIER, SKILLED WORKER, OR BUSINESSMAN.
THIS IS THE CADRE THAT NO DEVELOPING COUNTRY CAN AFFORD
TO LOSE. WHEN WE CONSIDER THE HAVOC THAT THE BLACK DEATH
AND THE BUBONIC PLAGUE WREAKED ON EUROPEAN SOCIAL,,
POLITICAL, AND ECONOMIC LIFE -- EVEN AS THES EPIDEMICS
DISPROPORTIONATELY SPARED THE MOST PRODUCTIVE GROUPS -- WHAT
CAN WE EXPECT OF THIS NEW PLAGUE? WILL WE SEE ECONOMIES
COLLAPSE FROM LACK OF MANPOWER? WILL WE SEE GOVERNMENTS
FALL APART AS LEADERSHIPS ARE DECIMATED? WILL WE SEE ORDER
DISINTEGRATE FROM LACK OF SOLDIERS? WILL WE SEE
INTERNATIONAL UNDERSTANDING FALTER AS FOREIGN-EDUCATED
ELITES ARE WIPED OUT?
WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS, BUTI AM
NOT OPTIMISTIC. UNLIKE THE OTHER GREAT PLAGUES OF HISTORY,
AIDS DOES NOT APPEAR..TO...BE..BECK-LIMITING.,: .:L UNITIES ARE
NOT BUILT UP. UNLESS A CURE IS DISCOVERED OR HABITS AND
LIFESTYLES CHANGE RADICALLY, A POPULATION ONCE INFECTED WILL
STAY INFECTED. THE VIRUS WILL BE PASSED FROM GENERATION TO
GENERATION, AND THE DAMAGE TO SOCIETY WILL BE CUMULATIVE.
THIS BRINGS ME TO THE LAST OF MY THREE TRENDS: THE
GROWING UNGOVERNABILITY OF MANY AREAS OF THE THIRD WORLD.
OBVIOUSLY ANY COUNTF Y WHOSE LEADERS, WORKERS, AND SOLDIERS
ARE DYING OF AIDS IS WELL ON THE-WAY TO BEING UNGOVERNABLE.
BUT LONG BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, AIDS MAY HAVE ANOTHER EFFECT.
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I AM ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED PRESS ACCOUNTS OF RURAL
POPULATIONS CUTTING THEMSELVES OFF FROM THE CITIES. AIDS IS
KNOWN'AS AN URBAN DISEASE, AND SOME RURAL AFRICANS ARE
SHUNNING CONTACT WITH THEIR URBAN COMPATRIOTS, BE THEY
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, SOLDIERS, DOCTORS, OR PRIESTS. SOME
RURAL PEOPLE FEAR -- PERHAPS CORRECTLY -- THAT GOVERMENT AND
MISSION CLINICS ARE THEMSELVES SPREADING AIDS THROUGH
CONTAMINATED NEEDLES. IT IS NOT DIFFICULT TO ENVISION A
SITUATION IN WHICH RURAL POPULATIONS WILL REVERT TO
PRIMITIVE SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND LEAVE THE URBAN CENTERS
ISOLATED, WITH LITTLE POWER AND LESS FOOD.
BUT AIDS IS FAR FROM BEING THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS
LEADING TO UNGOVERNABILITY IN THE THIRD WORLD. DRUG
PRODUCERS HAVE TURNED CERTAIN PARTS''OF?COLO'N[BIA, PERU,
BOLIVIA, PAKISTAN, THAILAND, AND BURMA INTO "NO-GO" AREAS
FOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. INSURGENCY IS HAVING A SIMILAR
EFFECT IN BOTH COMMUNIST AND NON-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES. IT'-
-IS"-CLEAR THAT COUNTRIES'SUCH'"AS"AFGHANISTAN,-'ETHIOPIA, SUDAN,
MOZAMBIQUE, ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, SRI LANKA, CAMBODIA, IRAQ, THE
PHILIPPINES, EL SALVADOR, AND COLOMBIA HAVE ONLY TENUOUS
CONTROL -- IF THAT -- OVER CERTAIN PARTS OF THEIR NATIONAL
TERRITORIES.
TRIBALISM AND ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS DISPUTES ARE
UNDERMINING GOVERINIABIL?ITY IN C!"--' , TAVL'.1l"., NIGERIA,
LEBANON, '-.iii f HOST OF 0T:?1.:11 .:.HIRJ
TERRORISM IS HAVING MUCH THE SAME EFFECT IN SOME CITIES THAT
INSURGENCY IS HAVING IN RURAL AREAS. BEIRUT,. LIMA, BOGOTA,
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KARACHI, AND MANILA COME TO MIND. AND THERE ARE OTHER
DESTABILIZING FACTORS EVEN WITHIN THE NATIONAL ELITES.
INDEED, COMPARED WITH THE WESTERN DEMOCRACIES AND THE
COMMUNIST STATES, MOST COUNTRIES OF THE THIRD WORLD HAVE
EXTREMELY WEAK GOVERNMENTS. TYPICALLY THEIR LEADERS, EVEN
THEIR MOST BRUTAL DICTATORS, HAVE LITTLE EFFECTIVE POWER.
THEIR LEGISLATURES AND JUDICIARIES HAVE EVEN LESS. THE
TYPICAL PRESIDENT MUST SPEND MOST OF HIS ENERGY TRYING TO
STAY ON TOP OF AN UNEASY COALITION OF INTEREST GROUPS: HE
HAS NO TIME TO ADVANCE THE CAUSE OF THE NATION, EVEN IF HE
HAS THE WISDOM AND DESIRE TO DO SO. HE MUST BRIBE WITH
OPORTUNITIES OR WITH UNAFFORDABLE ARMS NOT ONLY GENERALS,
BUT ALSO COLONELS AND EVEN NCOs. RELIGIOUS LEADERS, TRIBAL
CHIEFS, STUDENTS, LANDOWNERS, LOCAL CAPITALISTS, UNION
BOSSES, THE URBAN MOB, POLICE DEATH SQUADS, THE IMF,
MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS, THE PRESS, AND REPRESENTATIVES
OF FOREIGN POWERS MAY HAVE AN EFFECTIVE VETO OVER
PRESIDENTIAL ACTION. =AND THESE ARE THE GOVERNMENT'S
SUPPORTERS. ENEMIES -- GUERRILLAS IN THE MOUNTAINS,
SUBVERSIVES IN THE UNIVERSITY, PERHAPS IDEOLOGICAL OPPONENTS
WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT'S OWN PARTY -- WANT NOT ONLY TO BRING
DOWN THE RULER, BUT TO DESTROY THE STATE ITSELF.
SO, WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US? THE LONG-TERM FALL-IN
THE REAL VALUE OF MOST COMMODITIES. INCLUDING UNSKILLED
LABOR, IS STEADILY ERODING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF NOT ONLY THE
COMMODITY-DEPENDENT NATIONS BUT ALSO THE LESS SECURE NICs.
THE SPREAD OF AIDS THREATENS THE SOCIAL BASE OF THE LDCs.
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AND THE EROSION OF GOVERABILITY UNDERMINES THEIR POLITICAL
BASE. ALL OF THESE TRENDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO ACCLERATE THAN
TO SLOW.
CERTAINLY, NOT EVERY;LDC WILL SUFFER TO THE SAME
EXTENT. SOME OF THE MORE~ADVANCED NICs WILL GRADUATE INTO
THE RANKS OF THE DEVELOPED NATIONS. IF WORLD AGRICULTURAL
TRADE BARRIERS CAN BE LOWERED -- AND I THINK THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THIS WILL.HAPPEN.1NTHE.INTERMEDIATE FUTURE -- A
FEW HIGLY EFFICIENT COMMODITY-DEPENDENT LDCs MAY ALSO
PROSPER. WE HAVE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE ISLAMIC
COUNTRIES, FOR CULTURAL REASONS THAT -ARE STILL NOT FULLY
UNDERSTOOD, MAY BE LESS THREATENED BY AIDS THAN OTHER
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. IN OTHER COUNTRIES, THE ELITE
POPULATIONS MOST THREATENED BY AIDS MAY ALSO HAVE TE
EDUCATION AND RESISTENCE TO FATALISM THAT COULD LEAD TO LIFE
STYLE CHANGES. SOME WELL ESTABLISHED SEMI-AUTHORITARIAN
REGIMES LIKE THOSE OF MEXICO, TAIWAN, AND SINGAPORE MAY BE
IN A GOOD POSITION TO RESIST THE EROSION OF GOVERABILITY.
SOME OF THE NEW LDC DEMOCRACIES MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO RESIST
THIS EROSION.
IN THE LESS LUCKY THIRD..WORLD COUNTRIES. I FEAR THAT WE
WILL SEE A-SLOW DISINTEGRATION. RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION MAY
SLOW AND PERHAPS EVEN REVERSE ITSELF. STANDARDS OF LIVING
MAY DROP, DEATH RATES RISE, AND DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES EASE.
INSURGENCIES MAY DIE FOR 'LACK OF MANPOWER. IMPORTS AND
EXPORTS -- EXCEPT FOR NARCOTICS -- MAY DRY UP. ROADS,
RAILROADS, AND WATERWAYS MAY FALL INTO DISREPAIR AND BE
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ABANDONED. THE PRESIDENTIAL SASH MAY BECOME TOO MEANINGLESS
TO JUSTIFY EITHER AN ELECTION OR A COUP. CONTACT WITH THE
DEVELOPED WORLD MAY BE LIMITED TO TOURISTS, ANTHROPOLOGISTS,
AND AID OFFICIALS.
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT US INTERESTS?. ON THE IDEOLOGICAL
LEVEL, THE NEW TURN TOWARD DEMOCRACY AND CAPITALISM THAT IS
TAKING PLACE IN MANY AREAS OF THE THIRD WORLD MAY BE PUT IN
JEOPARDY. DEMOCRACY MAY BE SEEN AS INCOMPATABLE WITH
ENFORCING ECONOMIC AUSTERITY?OR FIGHTING AN INSURGENCY. THE
POTENTIAL OF-CAPITALISM TO BETTER-LIVES MAY-BET OVERWHELMED
IN MANY COUNTRIES BY FALLING REAL COMMODITY PRICES. ALTOUGH
COMMUNIST ECONOMIC DOCTRINE IS UNLIKELY TO REGAIN THE GROUND
IT IS PRESENTLY LOSING, ANTI-WESTERN RELIGIOUS/POLITICAL
MOVEMENTS MAY BECOME MORE COMMON.
ON THE ECONOMIC LEVEL, AS MARKETS IN THE DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED -- AS THE UNITED
STATES, EUROPE, AND JAPAN GET ALL THE CARS AND COMPUTERS AND
MOVIES AND TELEPHONES AND MISSILES THAT CAN BE USED -- THESE
COUNTRIES MUST SEEK ADDITIONAL MARKETS OR SEE PRODUCTION AND
EMPLOYMENT STAGNATE. AS LONG AS THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
HAVE A CONSTANT NEED FOR THIRD WORLD MARKETS BUT ONLY A
SPASMODIC NEED FOR THEIR LABOR AND-CO_MMODITIES, WORLD
ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL REMAIN SLOW AND DEVELOPED NATION
PROSPERITY WILL REMAIN TENUOUS.
ON THE SECURITY LEVEL, THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES THAT SCORN
SOVIET ECONOMICS MAY EMBRACE THE SOVIET POLITICAL SYSTEM AS
A MEANS OF WARDING OFF UNGOVERNABILITY WITH WELL-TRIED
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POLICE-STATE METHODS. COUNTRIES THAT WOULD NEVER THINK OF
IMPORTING A RUSSIAN LATHE OR TRUCK MAY EAGERLY IMPORT EAST
GERMAN INTELLIGENCE EXPERTS AND CUBAN PRESIDENTIAL GUARDS.
MOREOVER, CERTAIN GOVERMENTS REACTING TO FEAR OF AIDS
CONTAMINATION AND PERHAPS TO SOVIET DISINFORMATION MAY SHUT
DOWN US BASES AND RESTRICT US NAVAL VISITS. ON THE OTHER
HAND, AS THE WORLD PASSES OUT OF THE ERA OF MATERIALS, BOTH
US AND SOVIET INTEREST IN THE THIRD WORLD -- AND IN SEA
ROUTES AND GEOGRAPHIC CHOKE POINTS -- MAY DECLINE.
ON THE HUMANITARIAN LEVEL, IT SEEMS INESCAPABLE THAT
THE UNITED STATES AND THE REST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD WILL
BE CALLED UPON TO GREATLY INCREASE AID TO MANY AREAS OF THE
THIRD WORLD, EVEN AS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES SLOW AND FINANCIAL
PROBLEMS INCREASE.
LADIES AND GENTLEMAN, I HAVE GIVEN YOU A VERY SOMBER
VIEW OF THE FUTURE OF THE THIRD WORLD. THAT'S PART OF. MY
JOB. WE IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY HAVE THE DUTY TO BE
FORWARD LOOKING, TO PROBE FOR HIDDEN DANGERS WHERE OTHERS
MIGHT BE CONTENT TO MUDDLE ALONG, TO EXAMINE REASONABLE
WORST-CASE SCENARIOS. THE SECURITY OF OUR NATION DEPENDS
UPON IT. NOT ALL THE ILLS THAT I HAVE DESCRIBED MAY COME
ABOUT -- I HOPE THEY DON'T -- BUT WE MUST BE PREPARED. THE
DANGERS ARE REAL.
THANK YOU.
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