THE WAR OF THE PUNDITS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00418R000100370011-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: August 23, 1990
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sl Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/10: CIA-RDP99-00418R000100370011-0
O F T H E
PUNDITS
By Don Kowet
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
unditry - dec red all
but dead a f94 months
ago - isA ack with a
vengeqzfce.
restrictions since Iraq
invaded Kuwait Aug.
2, network newscasts and talk shows
have counted on Washington's divin-
ers and dowsers to fill the vacuum
created by the void of dramatic tele-
vision footage from the Persian
Gulf.
These so-called "Rolodex com-
mandos" have been talking their
heads off on TV and opining at
length on newspaper Op-Ed pages.
Appropriately, a squadron of retired
military men has been leading the
assault, commanded by network
consultants such as CBS' Gen.
George Crist, NBC's Col. William
Taylor and CNN's Col. Harry Sum-
mers. And there are free-lance
Clausewitzes, such as the former
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
Adm. William Crowe.
A review of the press coverage
reveals that House Armed Services
Committee Chairman Les Aspin is
ahead in the category of Most TV
Talk-Show Appearances by an
Office-Holding Politician, with ex-
CIA Director Stansfield 'Itirner and
ex-Secretary of State Henry Kis-
singer topping the Former office-
Holder charts.
Meanw hile, Washington's Brook-
ings Institution is winning the Think
Tank Relay Race, with TV appear-
ances by a quartet of house "ex-
perts," including ABC Middle East-
ern consultant Judith Kipper.
Curiously, only one conservative ci-
vilian - Heritage Foundation Vice
President Burton Pines - has gotten
the chance to gab for the network
cameras - on NBC's "Today."
As usual, the media are drawing
their pundits from the pool of sa-'
vants who have held a Cabinet post
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(with former secretaries of state and
defence in feverish demand) or am-
bassadorship. Specialists who claim
expertise in Middle Eastern affairs
by virtue of having written a book
about the subject also are in de-
mand. So are writers on foreign pol-
icy and military matters. So is just
about everybody.
And as tension has increased,
Iraq's pair of embattled ambassa-
dors to the United States and the
United Nations, Mohamed Al-
Mashat and Abdul Amir Al-Anbari,
have been performing a "We are a
peace-loving nation" routine in tan-
dem with television interviewers
who play straight men.
Daily reporters, news magazine
writers and television anchors also
have been getting into the act.
The question is, after over three
weeks of prognosticating and pon-
tificating, how correct have these
pundits proven to be in their predic-
tions?
Until Iraqi president Saddam
Hussein's tanks began their blitz-
krieg through tiny Kuwait, U.S. tele-
vision and newspapers were
oblivious to the imminent threat.
For instance, four days before the
Iraqi invasion, the networks' Sunday
punditry panels all were debating
U.S. domestic politics: ABC's "This
Week With David Brinkley" was dis-
cussing the merits of Supreme
Court nominee David Souter; CBS'
"Face the Nation" was focusing on
whether the Republican Party was
collapsing; and NBC's "Meet the
Press" was arguing about the "de-
cline" of conservatism.
As late as one day before the Iraqi
onslaught, there wasn't the slightest
hint of a potential Iraqi/Kuwaiti
clash published in the New York
Times, The Washington Post or The
Washington Times.
But predictably, afterwards only
CONTINUED
one pundit anywhere ad tted his
fallibility, publicly apologizing for
his cloudy crystal bad:
"If you want me to be entirely
frank with you;' Michael Dewar of
the International Institute of Strate-
gic Studies told CBS "This Morning"
host Harry Smith on the day of the
Iraqi invasion, "I was interviewed by
a BBC team only 24 hours ago, and
while I said [Saddam Hussein]
might nibble at Kuwaiti territory -
and now I have to eat my words - I
also said that I didn't think he would
go as far as outright invasion."
In contrast, on CNN that same
day, former U.S. Secretary of De-
fense James Schlesinger was able
safely to state, by hindsight: "It was
almost foreordained that [Iraqi
president Saddam Hussein] would
move in some manner militarily
against Kuwait."
Added Sit. David Boren on "The
ac~~1eil/Lehrer NewsHour: "I'd
avet say its not completely a sur-
prise."
Mr. Dewar had forgotten pun-
ditry's prime directive: Never ren-
der a definite "yes" or "no" verdict
unless you are clever enough to blur
that prophecy by a bunch of triple-
negatives.
Consider, for example, Adm.
Crowe's exemplary low-risk re-
sponse to a question put by ABC's
Forrest Sawyer on "Good Morning
America:'
"Is there a chance that Iraq will
just continue to push right on over to
those Saudi oil fields?" Mr. Sawyer
asked.
"I don't know how high the prob-
abilities are," Adm. Crowe re-
sponded, "but I don't think we can
assume that they're not eventually
going to do that, either in the short
or the long term:'
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Adm. Crowe's mastery of such
phrases as, "It severely complicates
the calculus;' and, "It's a very, very
difficult dilemma;' and, "It's an open
question:' confirm his reputation as
a pundit who rarely is proved wrong.
"'IO a journalist who has spent
substantial time in Saudi Arabia
over the past decade, the Saudi reac-
tion in coming months is fully pre-
dictable;' wrote the Wall Street Jour-
nal's Karen Elliot House.
"The Saudi royal family [has] only
one policy ... a policy that hopes for
the benefits of an American security
blanket without paying the political
price of allowing an American pres-
ence in the kingdom." Miss House
went on to warn the United States not
to be "deterred by Saudi Arabia's
cowardice."
The problem with this stinging
anti-Saudi blast was that Miss
House's piece appeared on Aug. 7 -
the day the Saudis invited in U.S.
troops.
Two days before, NBC corre-
spondent Fred Francis told "Meet
the Press" anchor Garrick Utley
that he understood from "senior ad-
ministration officials" that the
Saudis "will not" change their
minds.
Mr. Utley: "They'd rather live
with the devil in Kuwait than face a
war."
Mr. Francis: "You bet."
Would the Saudis cut off the Iraqi
pipeline passing through their terri-
tory? asked CBS' Lesley Stahl on
"Face the Nation."
"No," said James Schlesinger.
"That's the purpose of [the Iraqi] in-
timidation."
Miss House wasn't the only pundit
who showed poor timing. On Aug. 6,
a day before President Bush an-
nounced the United States was send-
ing troops - including the 82nd Air-
borne Division - to Saudi Arabia,
former White House communica-
tions director Patrick Buchanan
wrote in a column in The Washington
Times:
"An America that packed up and
abandoned Lebanon, after 250 Ma-
rines were lost in a single explosion,
is not going to send the 82nd Air-
borne up the Euphrates Valley to res-
cue Kuwait."
Most experts agreed that Mr.
Bush definitely wouldn't take mili-
tary action in the Persian Gulf.
"I don't think we have any inten-
tion of intervening militarily," Mr.
Schlesinger said on CNN's "Day-
watch." "We have exhausted what we
can do economically and diplomati-
cally."
"For all of the military might
America has built since 1939, it is
almost as paralyzed in the face of
this aggression as it was a half-
century ago, when Hitler swallowed
victim after victim in Europe," said
U.S. News & World Report.
On NBC's "Meet the Press;' New
York Times Washington corre-
spondent R. W. Apple compared Mr.
Bush to Britain's Neville Chamber-
lain appeasing Adolf Hitler.
"Senator (William] Cohen, there's
a Republican in the White House,"
Mr. Apple said. "He's a man every-
body has been calling a very lucky
president for 18 months. His luck
seems to have run out"
`No U.S. ground forces
will be deployed'
"For the U.S. to introduce ground
troops I think would be insane," said
former National Security Council
adviser Robert Hunter on CNN's
"World Day." "We would be out-
classed. We wouldn't have a chance"
"As far as talking about ground
forces, of course not," said Sen.
Lloyd Bentsen.
Sen. Howard Metzenbaum, ap-
pearing on CNN's "Newsmaker Sat-
urday," chided Adm. Crowe because,
he said, "With all of the $300 billion
and all of the buildup of defense
spending at this moment, we seem
rather helpless in the Middle East."
We cannot count on
our allies'
Mr. Metzenbaum was part of the
punditry consensus that argued the
United States could expect scant
support from its allies. The Jap-
anese and French "can't be counted
on;' he warned.
Of course, hardly anyone ex-
pected support from the other Per-
sian Gulf states, who were either in-
timidated by Iraq's military prowess
or reluctant to break "the bonds of
Arab unity."
If Mr. Hussein should "Afghanis-
tanize" Kuwait, "what will the rest
of the Arab world do?" Miss Stahl
asked on "Face the Nation." "Will
they just accept that and that will
become the new status quo?"
"Given the history of the Arab
world, they may just accept that;'
said correspondent Alan Pizzey.
"They'll be nervous, but I don't see
them doing very much about it."
"We're now trying to convince the
'lurks and the Saudis to close [their]
pipelines;' New York Times Middle
Eastern correspondent Thomas
CONTINUED
Friedman told CBS' "This Morning"
cohost Paula Zahn. "They're not go-
ing to do that."
Bryant Gumbel on "ibday": "We
get word this morning, just mo-
ments ago in fact, that Egypt has
decided that it will not join any
multinational force to defend Saudi
Arabia against Iraq."
Miss Zahn, to CBS Middle Eastern
consultant Fouad Ajami: "Fouad,
we've got the Arab leaders meeting
in Cairo right now. We understand
there is a plan that's being floated
that would allow several Arab coun-
tries to, in essence, buy off Saddam
Hussein.'
Mr. Ajami: "Right."
Miss Zahn: "In essence, what
they're offering is what, war repara-
tions?"
Mr. Ajami: "Right."
Miss Zahn "[Giving] back to Iraq
$2.4 billion worth of oil money?"
Mr. Ajami: "Right."
Wrong.
`Sufficient food
supplies'
" Today" co-host Deborah Nor-
ville: "The estimates are there is at
least six months' worth of food - in
most of the critical categories - to
last the Iraqis."
Mr. Al-Anbari, the Iraqi Amoassa-
dor to the United Nations, on "This
Week With David Brinkley: "I
assure you that [despite the em-
bargo and naval blockade] we'll have
enough food to eat."
Mr. Al-Anbari, on Nightline a
week later: "When our babies are
starving, foreign babies in Iraq will
have to suffer, too"
`King Hussein's
carrying a message'
"Good Morning America co-host
Charles Gibson: "King Hussein of
Jordan is in the United States this
morning.... The king reportedly is
carrying a letter to Mr. Bush from
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein."
Every major U.S. media entity
said King Hussein was conveying a
personal message to Mr. Bush from
the Iraqi president. After the Bush/
Hussein powwow, Jordan's king re-
vealed that the "message" didn't ex-
ist.
The only pundit who got that story
right was Jean Abinader, president
of the U.S.-Arab Chamber of Com-
merce. On CNN's "Crossfire;' co-
host Michael Kinsley asked, "What
is this secret message that everyone
says King Hussein is carrying from
Saddam Hussein to President
Bush?"
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"Well, the [Jordanian] foreign
minister assured me that there was
no secret message," Mr. Abinader
replied.
"You mean he has no proposal?"
asked the program's other host, Pat-
rick Buchanan. "You're saying that
the King of Jordan, when he sees the
president tomorrow, is not going to
have any proposal to lay on the ta-
ble?"
"I'm saying that;' said Mr. Abi-
nader.
`Hussein will not play
the hostage card'
"I think Saddam has far bigger
stakes to work with than playing
with what he would consider penny
ante stuff, such as American hos-
tages;' Col. William Taylor of Wash-
ington's Center for Strategic Studies
told Miss Norville on "Today."
Miss Norville, on another broad-
cast: "There are not only children
and Iraqis in Iraq, there are also
many Westerners. Do you think
they're in greater danger of having
supplies withheld from them?"
Stephen Johnson, president of
Americares, a U.S.-based relief
group: "No, I don't think there's any
danger of having supplies withheld
from them"
But after three weeks of short-
sighted punditry, "Meet the Press"
anchor Garrick Utley still stands tall
as the media's most myopic tea-leaf
reader. Two days before U.S. troops
started shipping out to Saudi Arabia,
Mr. Utley closed his program by of-
fering Hitler's invasion of Czecho-
slovakia as the predecessor for the
pattern of events about to unfold in
the Persian Gulf.
"The reactions then were not that
different from what we may see
now," Mr. Utley said. "Initial outrage
over naked aggression, followed by
appeasement by some and finally,
yes, acceptance by most."
If Mr. Utley's prophecy referred
to the world's politicians, it has
turned out dead wrong. But maybe
he was predicting the behavior of his
profession.
37.
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