RISK ANALYSIS BIG BUSINESS FOR EX-AIDES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP99-00418R000100190001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 28, 1981
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/10: CIA-RDP99-00418R000100190001-1
STAT
ARTICLE APPEARED
ON PAGE-~~ ~_%
irk Analysis
For=E x-Aj des
By CLYDE H. FARNSWORTH
Sp=WtoTbeNewYaic'- .
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27-At the end*
of a long shadowy corridor in a nonde
script office building three blocks 1
from the White House, the sign by the=
locked door reads International Busi-
ness Government Counsellorgln -
-Aster pressing a buzzer, the visitor is-
swiftly led into a room filled with
books, a large map of the world and se.
cure filing cabinets. The air is heavy
with the aromatic smoke of pipe tobac-
co.
William E. Colby, a former director,
of the Central Intelligence Agency, ap-
praises a visitor from behind steel-
rimmed glasses and then ever so cir-
curnspectly describes his new job for
private industry 'as an "investment.
risk assessor.. ? r.
It's a "natural follow-up" to his ex-
perience in intelligence, he says, and
then briefly sizes up conditions in
Egypt, Saudi: Arabia, Mexico and
France as he used to do for his former
client in the Ovakoffice.
Thoughts on Saudi Royalty
One of his conclusions: Expect a
devaluation of Mexico's currency be-
fore next year's general elections. An-
other: The Saudi royal house has far
deeper political roots in that country
than the Shah had in Iran and is them
fare rotripeforacoup.
-
Mr. Colby is a leading practitioner
of a burgeoning industry in Washing
ton, the selling of expertise to the pri-i
vate sector by former Government of-
ficials. It's k;lown as .the ":-evolving.
door" in the trade, and has existed for vestmentanalysis
decades..;- .
NE;1 YORK TINES
28 OCTOBER 1981
jobs with the companies they o,,^.ce
regulated. Former trade officials ad-The na~ysts also look at a cot ri r}~s
l
atory process and tax policies to
vise private clients on united States regu
s consid-
see urdensome whether for they the will o p excess
trade policy. Former Cabinet officer, b f
with fresh aiowledge of the inner burdensome companies consid-
with
~ e' ing doing business them..
of Govert~ent, provide new While
input to their old law firms or to the , there has k
na proliferation
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analysis cl
But now, after the collapse of the i~ ancies, they are now due for "some
Shah in Iran and the clobbering that f kind of shakeout," said Gordon Ray-
many companies took in- failing to Seld, who is president of the Associa-
foresee the revolution, a o Lion of Political Frisk Analysts, which
growrri~nun- f - - - -
those with experience in intelligence
or the foreign service, are-becoming
investment risk assessors-for multina-
tional companies.
A One-Man Consulting Concern
Richard Helms, another former top
C.I.A.'-official, who was once the
American envoy to'Iran, now runs a
? one-man consulting operation, which.
he calls Safeer, after the Persian word
for ambassador. Among his clients is
the Bechtel Corporation, the interna-,
tionaL. construction enterprise' that
thrives on contracts with various Mid-
dle Eastermcountries.
James?R. Schlesinger Jr.; who had
been Defense and Energy Secretary as
well as director of the C.I.A.; now ad-
vises Lehman Brothers, Kuhn Loeb. -
One of his current tasks is the exami-
nation of investment possibilities in
China fora host of Lehman clients.
Not all have come in out of the cold., r
James A. Johnson, who was execs
Live assistant to Vice President Mon
dale, and two other Carer Adrninis-
tration appointees, Richard C. Hol-
brooke, Assistant Secretary of State
for East Asia, and Decker Anstrom,
.'who had a?high position in the Office of
Management and Budget, have
formed a consulting operation. that
they call Public Strategies. .
The assessment of a country's politi-
cal stability is oily one element of
what has become a highly sophisti-
cated and specialized business of in-
departments of full-time investment
analysts. Gulf, Exxon, Mobil , General.'
Motors, and Chemical Bank and Chase
Manhattan are among those that haver
moved in this direction. The Chase'
uses the services of former Secretary'
of State Henry A. Kissinger on its risk
commirrmforb
i _,____ .
ore
Risk analysis is even being taught ct-
some universities. Georgetown L?ni_
versity's School of Foreign Service is
among these. And the professor,.
Thomas Reckford, not surorisingly is
a formeroperative for the C.I:A
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/10: CIA-RDP99-00418R000100190001-1