NIC PROCEDURES: PRODUCTION OF INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98S00099R000500840008-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2012
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: September 25, 1981
• Content Type: MISC

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25 September 1981
NIC PROCEDURES: PRODUCTION OF
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS
This directive provides specific guidance on the process of preparing
Nationa~ Intelligence Estimates (NIEs), Special National Intelligence Esti-
mates (SNIEs), and Interagency Intelligence Memoranda (IIMs). It spells out
the detailed steps by which the National Intelligence Council and other units
involved in producing estimates will apply the new procedures for interagency
intelligence production that were discussed at NFIB on 21 July 1981 and sub-
sequently promulgated by the DCI in his Memorandum to NFIB of 30 July 1981
(copy attached).
I. Fast-Track Procedures
Fast-track procedures are used in producing estimates (SNIEs and some
IIMs) under the pressure of short deadlines. As the 30 July memorandum indi-
cates, normally Category "A" SNIEs will be produced within one week (i.e.,
five working days from inception to NFIB approval) and Category "B" SNIEs in
three weeks. On occasion these time periods will have to be compressed or
expanded to meet specific needs. Deadlines for fast-track IIMs will vary from
project to project; in producing them the procedures described below will
generally apply. (IIMs, however, usually are approved for publication by
C/NIC after the NFIB Representatives have coordinated them and are not
reviewed at NFIB Principals' meetings. Those IIMs to be issued by the DCI do
require NFIB Principals' concurrence, which is obtained through the Executive
Secretary, NFIB.I
A. Sta e 1 -- Pro'ect Definition (Cat. A: 1 da or less? Cat. B: 3 da s or
less
? The request for a SNIE is received and brought to the attention of
C/NIC and the DCI.
? Once the DCI approves going ahead, C/NIC names an NIO (or another
senior officer) as SNIE Chairman; notifies NFIB Principals and the
NFIB Executive Secretary (by LDX or telephone) that work is begin-
ning; and asks that each Principal name a single Representative fully
empowered to speak for him in matters pertaining to that paper.
The SNIE Chairman, in consultation with C/NIC and NFIB Repre-
sentatives, identifies a principal drafter of (and perhaps other
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contributors to) the paper; establishes a production schedule; and
alerts units responsible for text preparation (NIC Support Branch,
OCO) and dissemination (Control Branch, OCO).*
? The SNIE Chairman and principal drafter prepare a draft Concept Paper
and Terms of Reference (TORS) for the estimate; clear them with C/NIC
and the DCI; and coordinate them with the NFIB Representatives (by
LDX or telephone).
B. Stage 2 -- Draft Preparation (Cat. A: 2 days or less; Cat. B: 5 days or
less
? The principal drafter prepares a first draft under the direction of
the SNIE Chairman.
? The drafter (or SNIE Chairman) arranges for the text to be tran-
scribed into the OCO text-processing system and edited by the NIC
Support Branch and informs the Branch of any graphic needs.
? The draft is reviewed by C/NIC, UC/NIC, AC/NIC, appropriate Analytic
Group officers, and the Senior Review Panel (usually simultaneously
rather than sequentially, in the interests of time).
? A revised draft based on reviewers' suggestions is usually prepared
and the OCO text is updated accordingly.
C. Stage 3 -- Representatives' Coordination (Cat. A: 2 days or less; Cat. B:
5 days or less
? When a draft acceptable to both the SNIE Chairman and C/NIC is ready,
it is distributed (normally by LDX or by special pickup arrangements)
to the NFIB Representatives.
? For Category "A" SNIEs, a meeting of Representatives to coordinate
the paper may be called by the SNIE Chairman if time permits; more
often, the Representatives will coordinate by telephone.
* OCO's Control Branch) (disseminates interagency intelligence
papers for the NIC, including initial Concept Papers and Terms of Reference
(TORs), all drafts, and the finished publications. For all such papers, and
especially for those produced under fast-track procedures, it is imperative
that Control Branch be given as much advance notice as possible along with
specific instructions as to the priority of each transmittal. Each
distribution requires the preparation of documentation to ensure delivery
according to prescribed security procedures, and deliveries must be
accomplished via the Office of Logistics' regularly scheduled courier runs.
All of this takes time. On occasion, OCO can arrange special courier runs,
but this is difficult to do and should be considered only on an emergency
basis.
STAT
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? For Category "B" SNIEs, a Representatives' coordination meeting will
generally be convened within five working days of the draft's dis-
tribution.
? The SNIE Chairman provides the coordinated draft and the text of any
proposed dissents to the DCI for his review.
? The SNIE Chairman, in consultation with C/NIC, determines whether to
recommend to NFIB that the paper be released to foreign governments
and communicates his decision to OCO's NIC Support Branch and to
NFAC's Foreign Liaison Staff (CIA's central point of contact for
exchanging substantive intelligence with selected allies and for
providing substantive intelligence support to the field).
D. Stage 4 -- NFIB Principals' Review*
? Once the DCI approves the draft for circulation to NFIB Principals,
the SNIE Chairman transmits it to the Executive Secretary, NFIB, for
rapid distribution.
? After a short period of time for Principals' review of the text
(usually a day or two, but longer if deadlines permit), the SNIE
Chairman asks the Executive Secretary of NFIB to conduct a telephone
poll of the Principals on Category "A" SNIEs. Category "B" SNIEs
will be considered at the next regular meeting of NFIB, if the time
what that meeting is scheduled will permit the deadline to be met.
Otherwise a special meeting may be called.
For those SNIEs tabled at an NFIB meeting, the SNIE Chairman prepares
a talking points memorandum for the DCI's information (separate copy
to Executive Secretary, NFIB) before the meeting. This should
describe the genesis of the paper, highlight key substantive issues
that arose during the paper's production, etc.
The SNIE Chairman attends the NFIB meeting, presents the paper to the
Board, and seeks NFIB's guidance on releasing the text to foreign
governments. The principal drafter may, at the SNIE Chairman's
initiative and C/NIC's concurrence, also attend the meeting.
The SNIE Chairman informs NIC Support Branch and Foreign Liaison
Staff of NFIB's decision regarding release of the paper to foreign
governments.
After NFIB action on the paper, the SNIE Chairman reconvenes the
Representatives to provide feedback on the NFIB review of the paper
and to identify and propose remedial action on residual intelligence
collection, analysis, or production problems raised by the paper.
* This stage is omitted for most IIMs.
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E. Stage 5 -- Final Production
? The SNIE Chairman or drafter provides copies of a recommended dis-
tribution list for the published SNIE to NIC Support Branch and to
Control Branch, OCO.
? NIC Support Branch arranges for the text and any graphics to be
printed.
The SNIE Chairman or drafter reviews a proof copy of the final paper
and approves its publication and dissemination.
? If NFIB has approved passing the paper to foreign governments, the
SNIE Chairman provides for the preparation of a suitably sanitized
version.
? The SNIE Chairman completes the Development File, the permanent
record of how the estimate was produced, containing key correspond-
ence and other documents marking important milestones in the paper's
preparation.
II. Regular Procedures
Because NIEs generally will be longer, more complex, and somewhat less
time-sensitive than SNIEs, procedures for producing them provide longer inter-
vals for writing, reviewing, and coordinating them. This will also be true
for most (but not all) IIMs, which usually will also be prepared under the
procedures described below. (I.IMs, however, generally are approved for pub-
lication by C/NIC after the NFIB Representatives have coordinated them and are
not usually reviewed at NFIB Principals' meetings. Those few IIMs to be
approved by the DCI do require the concurrence of the Principals, which is
obtained through the Executive Secretary, NFIB.)
The NIC produces two types of NIEs. Category I NIEs are those papers
that address a topic, region, or country on a one-time or aperiodic basis, and
which usually are scheduled well in advance as a result of the NIC production
planning process or the request of a senior policymaker or NFIB Principal.
Category II NIEs are those that are usually produced periodically or under a
standing requirement for estimative treatment of a particular topic at fixed
intervals (e.g., the NIE 11-3/8 and NIE 11-14 series).
A. Stage 1 -- Project Definition (Duration: usually 1-2 weeks)
? Chairman NIC designates an NIO (or another senior officer) as NIE (or
IIM) Chairman.
? The NIE Chairman notifies NFIB Principals (by memo or by telephone)
that work on the estimate is beginning and asks each to name a single
Representative fully empowered to speak for the Principal in the
preparation of the estimate.
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The NIE Chairman, in consultation with C/NIC and the Representatives,
identifies a principal drafter of (and perhaps other contributors to)
the paper; establishes a production schedule; and alerts units
responsible for text preparation and editing (NIC Support Branch,
OCO) and dissemination (Control Branch, OCO).*
The NIE Chairman and drafter prepare a draft Concept Paper and Terms
of Reference (TORS) for the estimate; clear them with C/NIC, VC/NIC,
AC/NIC, appropriate AG officers, the particular policy officers
concerned with the paper, the Senior Review Panel, and the DCI.**
? The NIE Chairman responds orally or in writing to the comments made
by the Senior Review Panel.
? The draft TORs and Concept Paper are sent to the NFIB Representa-
tives, who generally should have a week to review them with their
Principals before a coordination meeting occurs.
? The NIE Chairman convenes a meeting of Representatives to coordinate
the TORs and Concept Paper and to formalize drafting responsibilities
among the NFIB agencies.
? Should circumstances require major changes in the scope or focus of
the estimate thereafter, the NIE Chairman ensures that the DCI and
the NFIB Principals are made aware of the changes and approve them.
B. Stage 2 -- Draft Preparation (Duration: usuall 4 to 6 weeks)
? The principal drafter prepares a first draft of the estimate under
the direction of the NIE Chairman. (For longer NIEs, the draft will
include both the body of the estimate itself, which becomes Volume
II, or Supporting Analysis, in the published NIE, and the Key Judg-
ments, which become Volume I.)
? The NIE Chairman or the drafter arranges for the text to be tran-
scribed into the OCO text-processing system via the NIC Support
Branch, OCO, and informs the Branch of preliminary plans for graphics
in the paper.
? The first draft is reviewed by C/NIC, VC/NIC, AC/NIC, appropriate
officers of the AG, and the Senior Review Panel.***
* See footnote on page 2 of this directive.
** At such time as the NIC is fully staffed, an internal NIC panel system for
the review of estimative drafts will be instituted.
*** At such time as the NIC is fully staffed, an internal NIC panel system
for the review of estimative drafts will be instituted.
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The NIE Chairman responds orally or in writing to the Senior Review
Panel's comments.
New or revised drafts, which take into account the comments of the
reviewers listed above, will (usually) need to be prepared. The
successive drafts are fed into OCO's text-processing system to update
the basic draft as necessary. This process continues until the draft
is fully satisfactory as far as the NIE Chairman and C/NIC are con-
cerned.
C. Stage 3 -- Representatives' Coordination
? The NIE Chairman disseminates (via OCO Control Branch) copies of the
revised draft to the NFIB Representatives, who usually will have two
weeks to review the draft in detail and consult their Principals.
The NIE Chairman convenes a coordination meeting of the Representa-
tives, who meet on consecutive working days as required to coordinate
the full text and to define any areas of substantive disagreement
that may exist.
Once coordination is achieved, IIM drafts are referred to C/NIC for
approval to publish. (See Stage ~ below.)
Once NIE drafts have been coordinated, the NIE Chairman sends the
coordinated text together with the text of any proposed dissents (or
explanations of issues where a formal dissent is likely) to the DCI
for approval to circulate the text to NFIB Principals and put the
estimate on the NFIB meeting agenda.
D. Stage 4 -- NFIB Principals' Review*
? When the DCI approves the draft NIE for distribution to NFIB Princi-
pals, the NIE Chairman asks OCO Control Branch to provide copies of
the text to the Executive Secretary of NFIB, who circulates it to all
Principals and places the estimate on the NFIB meeting agenda.
? The NIE Chairman, in consultation with C/NIC, determines whether to
recommend that NFIB authorize releasing the estimate to foreign
governments and communicates his decision to OCO's NIC Support Branch
and NFAC's Foreign Liaison Staff (CIA's central point of contact for
exchanging substantive intelligence with selected allies and for
providing substantive intelligence support to the field).
The NIE Chairman prepares a background memorandum for the DCI's use
at NFIB (separate copy to Executive Secretary, NFIB) that describes
the genesis of the paper, highlights key substantive issues that
arose during the paper's preparation, etc. (This memorandum is
* This stage is omitted for most IIMs.
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provided to the Chief, Interdepartmental Affairs Staff, OPP, by noon
on the Friday preceding the NFIB meeting date for inclusion in the
DCI's briefing book for the meeting.)
? The NIE Chairman attends the NFIB meeting and, at his initiative and
with C/NIC's concurrence, may be accompanied by the principal drafter
of the paper. At the meeting the NIE Chairman introduces the paper
and seeks the Board's guidance on releasing it to foreign
governments.
? After the NFIB meeting, the NIE Chairman informs NIC Support Branch,
OCO, and the NFAC Foreign Liaison Staff of NFIB's decision regarding
release of the paper to foreign nationals.
? After NFIB, the NIE Chairman reconvenes the Representatives to effect
any necessary cleanup work on Volume I or Volume II; to provide the
Representatives with feedback on the NFIB Principals' meeting on the
paper; and to conduct a postmortem on the paper to identify intelli-
gence collection, analysis, or production problems or gaps concerning
the estimate and to suggest steps to correct them.
? NIE Chairman gets approval from C/NIC to initiate action to implement
steps proposed by Representatives to address intelligence problems
and gaps.
E. Stage 5 -- Final Production
? The NIE Chairman or drafter prepares a distribution list for the
published estimate and gives copies of the list to NIC Support Branch
and Control Branch.
? NIC Support Branch arranges for final editing and printing of the
text and accompanying graphics.
? The NIE Chairman or drafter reviews a proof copy of the printed paper
and gives final approval for proceeding with publication and dissemi-
nation.
If NFIB has approved passing the estimate to foreign governments in
sanitized form, the NIE Chairman works with NIC Support Branch, OCO,
to prepare such a version (or versions) of the estimate.
The NIE Chairman completes the compilation of a Development File, the
permanent record of how and why the estimate was produced, containing
all key correspondence and other documents marking important mile-
stones in the estimate's production.
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ATTACHMENTS:
A. DCI Memorandum to NFIB, 30 July 1981 (C)
B. Sample Memorandum transmitting TORs to NFIB Reps, 16 September 1981 (S/NF)
C. Sample Memorandum transmitting fast-track estimate draft to NFIB Reps,
3 August 1981 (S)
D. Sample Memorandum seeking DCI/DDCI approval of fast-track estimate,
7 August 1981 (S)
E. Sample Background Memorandum and Talking Points paper for DCI's use at
NFIB, 14 April 1981 (S/NF)
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washtr~ton. o. c. zosos
~t-~a-~~~ m~n~t ~
30 July 1981
NFAC 4652-81
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Foreign Intelligence Board Principals
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Interagency Intelligence Production
The attached procedures for interagency production, which
we discussed at NFIB on 21 July, are approved and are effective
immediately. When feasible, estimates in progress will be
adjusted to conform. I ask your cooperation in making the new
system work.
Attachment:
Procedures For Production
Of Interagency Intelligence
Assessments, dated 27 July 1981
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1
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William J. Casey,
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON JULY 87
Derived from Multiple
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27 July 1981
PROCEDURES FOR PP.ODUCTION OF
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE SSESSMENTS
This Notice establishes new guidelines for production of interagency
intelligence assessments, based on the experience to date of the National
Intelligence Council (NIC), and on recent critiques of existing procedures.
Policy
National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs and SNIEs) are the most
important product of the Intelligence Community and should be given the
highest priority by all intelligence agencies. They will again become the
primary Intelligence Community contribution to the policy formulation
process at the national level. (Interagency Intelligence Memoranda will
continue to be produced as before, on occasions when the paramount intelli-
gence task is the reaching of factual determinations. See Page 5.)
The principal purpose of these changes
--To produce NIEs and SNIEs which are better suited than
are existing estimates for NSC and Cabinet-level examination
and consideration, while preserving their usefulness for
other important consumers
--To assist senior policymakers by producing interagency
assessments which are less bulky -- and to do so quicker,
--To improve the substantive usefulness of such assessments
to the policy process.
--To enhance senior review within the Intelligence Community by
engaging the DCI and the other NFIB principals more fully in
arriving at the judgments set out in these assessments.
Categories of Estimates
Special National Intelligence Estimates will be oriented to a current
event or policy issue. The need for such estimates will normally arise
from the policy formulation process. To be useful, they must be brief and
timely. Papers directed at relatively narrow questions and on particularly
short deadlines will normally be produced as "Category A" SNIEs. This
category includes "Contingency" estimates, e.g., "What would be the reaction
if the US did X?" There will also be broader "Category B" SNIEs, particularly
in the political and economic fields, that require expeditious handling.
Production of SNIEs will be governed by the "fast track" procedures discussed
below (page 2).
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National Intelligence Estimates will also fall in two Categories.
"Category I" NIEs will be those devoted to less pressing policy concerns.
e.g., Yugoslavia After Tito. Papers in this category will take somewhat
longer to prepare than those tied to more immediate issues, and may
include extensive back-up analysis. Production will be governed by more
deliberate procedures (see page 3). The number of Category I NIEs should
decrease in coming months as the number of SNIEs increases. The major
periodic estimates, including the Soviet military series, will be listed
as Category II NIEs. They will be produced on a schedule approved by
the DCI after consultation with NFIB (see page 4).
Content of NIEs and SNIEs
In preparing estimates, Principals, Chairmen, and drafters shall
assure that drafts:
--Are as directly relevant to ongoing policy concerns as
possible, within the ground rules of appropriate discussion
by intelligence officers. They should be written in aware-
ness of the US role in the given situations, analyze the
degree to which these situations may be susceptible to the
influence of the US or its friends, and address the
significance of various outcomes for US interests.
--Contain as much estimative thrust as possible, including
where appropriate possible alternative future developments.
--Integrate political, military, economic and other factors--
especially with respect to economic forces and to the broader
political purposes of military power.
--Avoid secondary issues and unnecessary detail.
--Contain, as has been the practice, any alternative or
dissenting views.
--Indicate the validity of the intelligence supporting the
estimate.
Fast-Track Procedures for SNIEs
Initiation: Preparation of SNIEs may be proposed to the DCI by any
senior o icer, although the concerned NIO is expected to anticipate the
need for such estimates through his participation in the policy formulation
process. If the DCI approves a proposal, the Chairman NIC will immediately
notify NFIB Principals by telephone or LOX, designating an NIO as Chairman
of the estimate and requesting that each Principal name a single qualified
officer fully empowered to represent him in the coordination process.
Representatives should have access to and be able to speak for their Principal.
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Terms of Reference (TORS)/Concept Papers: The Estimate Chairman
will immediately prepare draft TORS and a concept paper, check them out
with the requester and the DCI, and coordinate them with the representatives
by telephone and LDX. For Category A SNIEs, these steps should take no more
than 24 hours, for Category B, no more than 3 days.
Drafting Responsibilities: The Chairman will in the course of
establishing TORS negotiate with the representatives to identify drafters
and contributors who are both qualified and available. It will be the
responsibility of the Principals to free assigned drafters and contributors
from conflicting duties until the draft is completed. For Category A this
should regularly require no more than 2 days, for Category B, 5 days.
Format: The SNIE will regularly run no more than 5 pages for
Category A and 10 for Category B. Where essential, annexes may be appended.
Coordination: When the Chairman has a satisfactory draft, he will
distribute it to the representatives for coordination, normally by LDX.
Representatives should immediately seek the views of their Principals.
For Category A SNIEs, the Chairman will, when time permits, convene a
representatives meeting to coordinate the paper, but in extreme cases will
coordinate by telephone. In any case the time required should not be more
than 2 days. For Category B, representatives will normally meet, and
coordination should be complete in no more than 5 days.
NFIB Consideration: SNIEs will normally be reviewed by the DCI at
this stage. Concurrence of the Principals in Category A SNIEs will then
be obtained by telephone or through a special NFIB meeting within the next
24 hours. Category B SNIEs usually will be considered at a regular NFIB
meeting if conveniently scheduled, or at a special meeting; no more than
3 days should be required.
Cate4ory I NIE Procedures
Initiation: NIEs in Category I will normally be proposed by the NIC
and scheduled well in advance, although any NFIB Principal or senior policy
officer may request one. The schedule will be considered by NFIB quarterly
and approved by the DCI. Should an addition to or deletion from the
schedule be proposed, Principals will be given an opportunity to comment
prior to a decision by the DCI. Before work begins on a paper, the Chairman,
NIC is responsible for designating an NIO as Chairman and notifying the
Principals. Each Principal in turn will designate a single qualified officer
fully empowered to represent him in preparation of the estimate.
Terms of Reference/Concept Paper: The Estimate Chairman will prepare
draft TORS and a concept paper. a will assure that before they are sent out
to the agency representatives, these papers have been checked out with the
policy officers concerned and have been submitted to the DCI for his review.
Once these papers go out to the representatives, the latter will be expected
to review them with their Principals before the representatives come to the
coordination meetings. The usual time to be given for such review, prior to
the meetings of the representatives, will be one week. In cases where
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circumstances warrant significant changes in the initial purpose, scope,
concept, or TORS of a given paper, the Chairman will ensure that these -
changes have the approval of the DCI and the NFIB Principals.
Draftin Res onsibilities: The Chairman will, in the course of
preparing an coordinating f~Rs, negotiate with the representatives to
identify drafting officers and arrange for contributions from individual
agencies. It will be the responsibility of each Principal to ensure that
contributions assigned to his agency are delivered on schedule. Drafts
should regularly be completed within one month.
Format: Each draft Category I NIE will normally consist of the basic
estimate and a shorter Key Judgments section. Both will be coordinated
by the Agency representatives. When published, the first volume of the NIE
will contain only the Key Judgments. Volume I should be no more than 10
printed pages in length. The basic estimate will be published as back-up
analysis in an accompanying Volume II. There will, of course, be occasions
where the length or complexity of the estimate will necessitate variations
on this concept.
Coordination: When the Chairman has a satisfactory draft, he will
distribute it to the representatives. The latter will be given 2 weeks
to consult with their respective Principals on the content of a draft
before the representatives meet for coordination with the paper's Chairman.
The representatives will meet on consecutive working days for as long as
necessary to complete coordination. Discussion at these meetings will
center on ironing out questions of fact, examining the principal assessments
of the given paper, and identifying main areas of agreement or disagreement/
dissent. If major revisions are necessary, there can be a clean-up meeting
to review the final text; new issues will not be raised at clean-up meetings.
Any major issues not resolved at representatives' meetings will be examined
at NFIB by the DCI and the Principals.
NFIB Consideration: Volume I as coordinated by the representatives
(that is, Key Judgments, together with any dissents or unresolved issues)
will go to the DCI for approval and distribution to the Principals, who will
be given at least 7 working days to review the final draft. It will be
scheduled for the next regular meeting of NFIB thereafter. At NFIB, discussion
will center on the estimate's major questions, with any necessary editorial
or minor fixes to be done subsequently under the direction of Chairman, NIC
and the paper's Chairman, as directed at NFIB by the DCI. The Chairman will
also be responsible for conforming a coordinated Volume II to Volume I.
Volume II will be published within one month after Volume I.
Category II (periodic) NIE Procedures
The procedures outlined above for Category I NIEs in general apply also
to Category II. These papers are likely to be longer (sometimes more than
two volumes) and more complex than those in Category I, and arrangements for
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their production may involve an elaborate structure of working groups and
subgroups, DCI Committees, etc. They will also take more time to prepare..
Nonetheless, every effort will be made to move them along expeditiously,
and to keep Volume I concise and policy-oriented. Present production of
periodic NIEs should not be significantly changed under these procedures.
Interagency Intelligence Memoranda (IIM)
The IIM will be prepared in accordance with SNIE or NIE procedures
as appropriate to the issue addressed, except that it will be coordinated
in the Community at the NFIB representatives level and issued by the
Chairman, NIC. Representatives may, of course, seek the approval of their
Principals. An IIM may be referred to NFIB and issued by the DCI if he so
decides, or if requested by a NFIB Principal.
General
These procedures should provide a maximum of one week for the production
of Category A SNIE's, three weeks for Category B SNIE's, and three to four
months for the production of Volume I of Category I and most Category II
NIE's. Principals will, of course, retain their right of dissent in all
cases and categories of estimates, including IIM's.
After NFIB discussion of an SNIE or NIE, the estimate Chairman will
convene the representatives fora review of and follow-up to the NFIB
proceedings. This meeting should also focus on identifying gaps in
collection or analysis for future emphasis. The Chairman will be responsible
for initiating further action through appropriate channels to fill such gaps.
These procedures may be abridged by C/NIC when an estimate is needed
more quickly than they will permit. The only essential conditions are that
each agency have an opportunity to dissent, and that the DCI approve the
final product.
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A~~~7n~~~~~ ~
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NFAC 5826-81
16 September 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: The NFIB Representatives
FROM: Henry S. Rowen
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: TOR Meeting, NIE: Key Military Issues in the Middle East
15~
1. The Di rector of Central Intelligence has requested preparation
of a National Intelligence Estimate which will address Key Military
Issues in the Middle East. The estimate will be prepared under the auspices
of the National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia.
2. Attached are draft Terms of Reference for the estimate prepared
jointly by NFAC and NIO/NESA. We envision utilizing a principal drafter
drawn from NFAC's Office of Near East/South Asia and requesting other
community agencies and departments to provide substantive analytic support
on specific sections. We also intend to solicit field appraisals and
comments from various posts in the region through separate channels.
3. In order to validate and modify the TOR as necessary, I would like
to invite a representative from your organization to attend and participate
in an initial meeting on Tuesday, 13 October, 1400 hours, Room 7E62
CIA Headquarters. Please have your clearances passed and cal l 25X1
with your attendance plans by October 9. ~~ 25X1_
fem. ~ ~ ,-> > ~. - ,~-.--
Henry S. Rowen
Attachment
Terms of Reference
SECRET 25X1
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3 August 1981
MEh10RANDUM FOR: NFIB Representatives
Acting National Intelligence Officer for USSR-EE
SUBJECT Draft of SNIE 11/32-81: Soviet Threat to Pakistan
1. Attached for your review is the draft of SNIE 11/32-81:
The Soviet Threat to Pakistan.
2. In view of our very tight schedule, which calls for completion
of this SNIE by COB this Friday (7 Aug 81), and a conflicting SNIE review
session scheduled for Wednesday, we have no choice but to schedule our
markup session for Tuesday afternoon. The meeting will be held at 1400
hours on Tuesday, 4 August 1981, in Room 7E32 CIA Headquarters Bldg.
We will continue the meeting until all conflicts are resolved. If you
have problems with any part of the text, it would be helpful if you
would offer alternative language for consideration.
3. Please call in names of attendees
as soon as possible.
25X1
25X1
Attachment:
As Stated
SECRET Deriv C1 By Signer
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? SECRET foie: SNiE II/3Z-ttl
NFAC #4936-81
7 August 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
cting Natrona n e ligence Officer for USSR-EE
SUBJECT SNIE 11/32-81: The Soviet Threat to Pakistan
1. Attached is the final draft of SNIE 11/32-81: The Soviet
Threat to Pakistan for your approval. It has been produced under
the new fast-track SNIE Category B procedures with some success.
The draft has the concurrence of the NFIB representatives and is
ready to go to the principals.
2. Walt Elder and I believe that this SNIE may be sufficiently
non-controversial to warrant our asking the NFIB principals for
telephonic concurrence, rather than calling a special NFIB meeting.
If you approve the draft, we can get it out to the NFIB principals on
Monday morning for their concurrence by COB Tuesday, 11 August.
Attachment:
As Stated
Deriv C1 By Signer
SECRET Revw on Aug87
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NFAC #4936-81
7 August 1981
SUBJECT: SNIE 11/32-81: The Soviet Threat to Pakistan
DISTRIBUTION:
0 - OCI
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - C/NIC
1 - AC/NIC
1 - D/NFAC
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NFAC Re istry
A/NIO/USSR-EE~
(7Aug81)
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC 2160-8i
14 April 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Acting National Intelligence Officer for East Asia-Pacific
SUBJECT: Background Paper for DDCI's Chairing of NFIB - NIE 42/14.2-5-81
The Korean Militar Balance and Its Im lications for
ostilities on the Peninsu a
1. This Estimate, drafted basically by OSR/NFAC, passed through the
interagency coordination process without difficulty. There are no sub-
stantive disagreements on the text, no reservations, nor are any anticipated
at the NFIB meeting.
2. The Estimate was originally required to provide intelligence judgments
concerning the military balance on the Korean peninsula in support of the
anticipated review of the continuation of the stationing of US forces in South
Korea. President Reagan's decision that the troops will remain has, of
course, eliminated that requirement. Nonetheless, renewed emphasis on US
military support for the ROK and heightened concern for the overall security
situation in Northeast Asia makes this paper an important and timely document.
3. After a period of strain, ROK-US relations are again moving forward
with special stress on the development of the defensive capability of the
South and improvements in the US/ROK combined command structure. This
Estimate provides for the first time in over five years a Community judgment
on the relative military balance on the peninsula, together with a projection
for the trends in that balance for the next five years. It contains a sober-
ing message -- one that highlights the continued vulnerability of the ROK
and the central role US forces and support will continue to play in the
defense of South Korea.
4. The timing of the Estimate is especially fortuitous. Senior US
and South Korean defense officials will be meeting in California at the end
of this month to begin the process of defining the scope and direction of US
military assistance to and cooperation with the ROK. This paper will provide
important judgments to help guide that process now and in the months ahead.
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIE4J ON APR 87
Derived from Multiple
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SUBJECT: Background Paper for DDCI's Chairing of NFIB NFAC 2160-81
NIE 42/14.5-5-81: The Korean Military Balance
and Its Im lications for Hosts sties on the
eninsula
5. This Estimate displays considerable knowledge and analytic skill,
but it also points up sizeable gaps in our intelli ence covers a which we
must strive to close.
6. Our knowledge of the strengths and capabilities of the South Korean
forces, while considerably greater than that on the North, is nonetheless
not as good as should be expected given the extensive US military presence
in the South and US military interaction with South Korean armed forces.
We need to do a better job ensuring that evaluation of ROK military performance
and capabilities reaches intelligence channels.
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SUBJECT: Background Paper for DDCI's Chairing of NFIB NFAC 2160-81
NIE 42/14.2-5-81 The Korean Military Balance
and Its Im lications for Hostilities on the
eninsu a
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - A/DCI
2 - SA/DCI
1 - ER
1 - DD/NFA
1 - DD/NFAC
1 - C/NIC
1 - AC/NIC
1 - NIO/EAP
1 - NFAC Registry
NIO/EAPJ 14 Apr 1981
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