FAST TRACK SNIE 11/37-86 ON SOVIET POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210065-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 65
• Publication Date: January 7, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244ROO0300210065-0
The Director oXentral Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
7 January 1986
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Foreign Intelligence Board Principals
FROM: Harold P. Ford
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: Fast Track SNIE 11/37-86 on Soviet Policy Toward Afghanistan
1. At the request of State/INR, the DCI has directed the preparation
of a very short, very fast-track SNIE assessing the meaning, if any, of
recently reported Soviet interest in a political solution to the war in
Afghanistan. Since the task is quite straightforward, we shall dispense
with TORs and proceed on the following outline:
Evidence of, or allegations about, new Soviet interest in a
political solution from March 1985 to the present.
The assessed intent of Soviet political messages: To signal real
interest or weaken the adversary coalition?
The effect of Soviet messages, so far and expected, on key parties
to the conflict.
Outlook for Soviet policy, including the possibility and
identifying features of future Soviet interest in a political
solution.
2. NTn/ii,,,qp will run the SNIE. The drafter will bel I of
CIA/SOVA Please designate a representative to participate
in this SNIE and have that person contact NIO or ANIO/USSR as soon as
possible We intend to get agencies' substantive
views by polling representatives in secure phone conversations, circulate a
draft by Friday 10 January, coordinate on Monday 13 January, and go to NFIB
on Thursday 16 January.
Harold P. Ford
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244ROO0300210 O65-0
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210065-0 ' 25X1
Secret)
SNIE 11/37-86, "Soviet Tactics on a Political Solution
in Afghanistan"
This estimate was requested by the Director of the Bureau of
Intelligence and Research, Department of State, informally
through the DCI. The request asked us to evaluate reports of
renewed Soviet interest in a political settlement short of
complete victory in Afghanistan. The implicit policy issue,
though not explicitly stated, was the position the US
government should adopt on these reports in its diplomatic
exchanges with the allies, the Soviets, and key countries
affected by the war. The estimate judged that the reports
were part of a new effort by Moscow to divide the coalition
supporting the resistance, not an authentic indication of
increased Soviet interest in a solution short of victory. In
drawing policy implications, the estimate concluded that the
US would need to show continuing support for the resistance
and its backers and to assure them that we saw "no
compromise short of Soviet withdrawal" in sight.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210065-0
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210065-0
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/04/27: CIA-RDP98-00244R000300210065-0