FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE AFRICAN SAHEL: SHORT-TERM RELIEF, LONG-TERM PROBLEMS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97R00694R000700240001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 33
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of
Intelligence
Secret
Food Production in the
African Sahel: Short-Term Relief,
Long-Term Problems
Secret
GI 87-10028
April 1987
Copy 2 0 5
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Intelligence
Directorate of Secret
Long-Term Problems
Food Production in the
African Sahel: Short-Term Relief,
This paper was prepared by
Office of Global Issues, with
US Agency for International Development.
contributions from the Office of African and Latin
American Analysis, the Office of Near East and
South Asian Analysis, and the Office of
Information Resources. It was coordinated with the
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Secret
GI 87-10028
April 1987
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Food Production in the
African Sahel: Short-Term Relief
Long-Term Problems
Summary The roughly 100 million people who live in the African Sahel and the Horn
Information available of Africa are among the poorest in the world. The eight countries in the re-
ar of I March 1987 gion-Mauritania, Mali, Burkina, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, and
was used in this report.
Somalia-have precarious economies and governments prone to political
instability. The severe drought that covered portions of all eight countries
during the first half of the 1980s dealt a heavy blow to the economic, so-
cial, demographic, and political fabric of the region and led to famine
conditions and widespread loss of life. Recent improvements in rainfall
have resulted in some relief from the worst immediate effects of the
drou ht but the loner term outlook for the region's food balance remains
grim.
25X1
early 1980s.
Rainfall remains the key factor that will determine the region's general
well-being over the rest of the decade. Analysis of historical weather data
indicates that weather patterns over the next five years are likely to fall
within a clear range:
? The best bet is for rainfall to stabilize somewhat around recent levels.
? There is also a good chance that rainfall may continue the downward
trend of the last 25 years.
? There is a small chance that the recent rains could indicate a return to a
wet period like the early 1960s.
While there is some disagreement among climatologists on the trend in
Africa's climate, the majority agree with our most likely projection that
precipitation rates for the next few years will closely follow the trend of the
improving food availability through domestic grain production are bleak.
Unless weather conditions during 1986-90 come close to the best we
examined-a highly unlikely event-per capita output of grain will most
likely decline from the low 1981-85 levels, continuing a general trend of the
last 25 years. Although there may be some modest gains in total grain pro-
duction, they will be outstripped by the region's rapid population growth.
Given this climate outlook, our estimates indicate that prospects for
There is little chance, then, that the region can avoid increased grain
import requirements. Most of those imports would have to be provided
through various assistance programs, because the region already spends
about one-fourth of its meager export earnings on grain imports. Annual
regional needs by 1990 could run 50 percent or more above the 2.2 million
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Secret
metric tons per year average of 1981-85 just to maintain recent per capita
consumption levels; the cost at world market prices would exceed $1
billion. In the best case we examined, four of the countries-Mauritania,
Mali, Ethiopia, and Somalia-would still need substantial increases in
grain imports just to keep per capita grain consumption stable. Even with
the increases, Ethiopia and Mali would have no hope of meeting the
minimum nutritional standard consumption levels established by the Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. In the other
cases we examined, which are much more likely, all eight countries would
need increased grain imports to maintain per capita consumption, and most
increases would be substantial.
This means that financial pressures will continue to be severe and
conditions fostering political instability will probably intensify. The grain
import bill is already so large-about $475 million annually during 1981-
85-that it sharply limits the impact of foreign trade on economic
development in the region. Moreover, continued food shortages and
drought-induced crop failures are likely to force more migration into the
already overcrowded cities and across international borders, encouraging
both domestic unrest and the risk of conflict between countries in the
region.
The United States and the rest of the West will face large and probably ris-
ing requests for food aid to the region as 1990 approaches. If rainfall levels
fall in the range we believe is likely, there may be little the countries
themselves can do in the short run to avoid a return to famine conditions, at
least in regions that are on the fringe of adequate rainfall and are difficult
to reach with limited grain surpluses possibly available from other parts of
a given country. In fact, the primitive transportation and communication
infrastructure in the region makes it likely that pockets of serious food
shortages will arise and go undetected by authorities for some time, sharply
raising the risk of starvation. Western logistic aid, therefore, will also be a
continuing need in the region.
The only longer term hope is policy adjustments needed to induce
improvement in the primitive level of the region's agrotechnology, which
would raise regional grain production and limit import needs. The West is
in an excellent position to provide this agrotechnical assistance, despite the
vagaries of climate and limited arable land available. Much technology is
readily available or could be easily tailored to the conditions of the region.
Such a program would also sharply contrast with Moscow's failure to
provide such agricultural assistance because of its own limitations in the
agricultural arena. Western pressure on local governments to make the
policy environment more supportive of improved agrotechnology would be
a critical adjunct to such an aid program.
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Rainfall Barely Adequate for Agriculture
1
The Recent Drought in Historical Perspective
Impact of Drought on Grain Production and Import Needs
3
Improving the Food Balance: A Long-Term Process
7
The Climate Outlook to 1990
9
Grain Production Possibilities
10
Projected Grain Import Requirements
11
Self-Sufficiency Not in the Cards
12
Import Needs Likely To Increase Substantially
12
Risk of Famine Clear
13
Risks for the Region
13
Political and Social Problems Likely To Increase
14
Implications for the United States
15
A. Country Perspectives on the Drought
B. Data Bases Developed for the Study
C. Estimating Grain Production
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Figure 1. Major Grain-Producing Area
North Atlantic
Ocean
Western
Sahara
Sgnegal
The g.ambia.
Guinea-Bissau-y?
?~Guile
Sierra Leone
~~~L ka o
caad N'Ojaoens
Nigeria
Khartoum.
Sudan
U Major grain area
Area not included in study
0 1000 Kilometers
25X1 Figure 2. Climate Patterns
Algeria
^r'"' atrat ' 1
African Republic
Red
3. Sea
J Adad
Aabe
Ethiopia/,,,'
~
North Atlantic
Ocean
Arid
Semiarid
Tropical wet and dry
Tropical wet
Area not included in study
1000 Kilometers
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
710029(800206)3-87
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
710028(800206) 3-87
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Food Production in the
African Sahel: Short-Term Relief,
Long-Term Problems
The countries of the African Sahel and the Horn of
Africa are among the poorest in the world. The vast
majority of their 100 million people are essentially
subsistence farmers whose meager existence is annu-
ally subject to the vagaries of the weather. An
extended drought that covered most of the first half of
this decade decimated crops in large portions of the
region, leading to large-scale famine, mass migrations
across international borders, increased political insta-
bility, and the need for massive external food aid.
Despite improvements triggered by greater rainfall
since 1985, the longer term outlook for the region's
food balance remains grim, and large quantities of
food aid will continue to be needed to stave off
episodes of mass starvation and political instability.
Rainfall Barely Adequate for Agriculture
Given the low level of agrotechnology in the region,
rainfall is the key weather factor that determines the
level of agricultural output in the Sahel and the Horn
(appendix A). The agricultural areas of the eight
countries included in our study-Mauritania, Mali,
Burkina, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Soma-
lia-(figure 1) are situated in a narrow transitional
climatic zone between the Sahara Desert on the north
and tropical forest on the south (figure 2). Total
annual precipitation varies widely from year to year,
but, as a general rule, most of the land receives less
rainfall than the 400 millimeters (mm) per year
needed for nonirrigated agriculture to be successful
(figure 3).
The western and central portions of the Sahel are
characterized by natural grassland, nomadic herding,
and rain-fed agriculture, with most rainfall occurring
from July to September. There is very little water
storage in this part of Africa, and, when the rains fail,
cattle either die in large numbers or are driven
southward in search of better grazing land and water.
In the latter case, their numbers-combined with
indigenous herds-often exceed the carrying capacity
of the land, causing great damage to ecosystems and
jeopardizing future feed resources. Most crops are
produced at the subsistence level, and farmers obtain
very low yields even in good years. Often the farmers
carry little or no surplus from year to year, and the
lack of a well-developed infrastructure-roads, mo-
torized vehicles, and communication facilities-limits
the amount of food that can be moved from surplus to
deficit areas. The danger of famine arises quickly
when the rains fail, yet indications of an impending
famine may go undetected by governments and relief
agencies for some time.
Farther east, in the Horn, rainfall occurs in two
seasons in most of Ethiopia and in parts of Somalia.
Small amounts of precipitation fall in the spring-
triggered by wind circulation from the Indian
Ocean-but the major rains occur in the summer
months. Ethiopia's large population-about 44 mil-
lion people-and primitive agricultural techniques
offset much of the food production advantage this
region has, and generally the food balance is as
precarious here as in the western and central parts of
the Sahel.
The Recent Drought in Historical Perspective
The recent drought in the eight countries along the
southern fringe of the Sahara Desert has been the
worst in this century. The drought, which has plagued
most of the region since the late 1960s, was particu-
larly intense during the period 1980-84. In fact, the
United Nations has designated these countries as
having the most serious food problems in Africa.
Although recent rains have brought some relief, pre-
cipitation levels continue to be well below the long-
term average (figure 4) and barely above the 400-mm
annual rainfall requirement of many nonirrigated
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Figure 3. Precipitation During a Wetter Climatic Period'
Wes ern
S ara
Mean Average Precipitation
(in millimeters)
~J 200-400 LJ 1,000-1,200
400-600 1,200 and above
600-800 0 Area not included in study
Algeria 0 1000 Kilometers
Algeria I 1 1
0 1000 Statute Miles
a Data are taken from 1936-65, a period of generally S. To. Guinea
region has received less than adequate rainfall over the ----"-----
last 20 years.
Figure 4
The Sahel and the Horn: Average Annual
Precipitation, 1921-85
t3abort "Z ow
Egypt
Red y
Sea
a--`
Sudan
Ethiopia
_- JSo
100
I I I I I I I I I I I I I J I I I I
0 1921 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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Table 1
Occurrence of Droughts in the 1971-85 Period a
1973
1974
1978
1979
1980
M Mild drought (80 to 90 percent of normal precipitation).
S Severe drought (less than 80 percent of normal precipitation).
1910-20
crops. Although this downward trend is unprecedent-
ed in duration and magnitude during this century,
similar droughts have occurred periodically in this
region since the early 1700s. The historical evidence
indicates that similar episodes occurred in the 1740s
and 1750s, 1820s and 1830s, and more recently in
From a geographical perspective, drought in this
region is not a localized phenomenon. Since the 1970s,
its occurrence has been persistent and widespread
across the eight countries included in this study (table
1). The line (isohyet) I representing the occurrence of
400 mm of precipitation moved southward an average
of 85 kilometers (km) across the entire continent from
1966 to 1975, and 150 km in the period 1976-85
(figures 5a and 5b). The southward movement of the
400-mm isohyet essentially eliminated large agricul-
tural areas from productive use. Also, there has been
a marked decrease in annual precipitation in the
agricultural areas nearer the southern fringes of the
region where rainfall is generally more abundant. The
agricultural areas of Mali, Niger, and Chad were
especially hard hit in the 1966-75 period (figure 5a).
Annual rainfall in these countries decreased 70 to 80
percent. The 1976-85 period saw a worsening and an
expansion of the drought into Sudan, with more
agricultural areas experiencing less than the mini-
mum precipitation necessary to grow crops (figure 5b).
Impact of Drought on Grain Production
and Import Needs
The food balance in the region has clearly worsened
since the mid-1960s. The decrease in precipitation
since then has contributed to a general reduction of
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Figure 5a. Departure of 1966-75 Precipitation From 1936-65 Average
Mauritania
Nouakchott
Algeria
Egypt I
'- C rytral -
African Republic
Khartoum}
Sudaa
Addis
Ahaha
Ethiopia
Decrease in Annual Precipitation
(1966-75) From 1936-65 Average
(in millimeters)
Figure 5b. Departure of 1976-85 Precipitation From 1936-65 Average
1000 Kilometers
Cape
Verde
Mauritania
Nouakchott
Equa.
Guinea
S. To.
& Prin.