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• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 1, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of Confidential
Intelligence ?
C61
qwr
Patterns of Regime and
Leadership Change
in the Third World
Confidential
GI 86-10080
December 1986
Copy 3 4 8
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Directorate of Confidential
Intelligence 25X1
Leadership Change
Patterns of Regime and
in the Third World
OGI,
This paper was prepared by the Political Instability
Branch, Office of Global Issues. Comments and
queries are welcome and may be addressed to the
Chief, Foreign Subversion and Instability Center,
Confidential
GI 86-10080
December 1986
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Preface
Information available
as of 30 June 1986
was used in this report.
Patterns of Regime and
Leadership Change
in the Third World
This Reference Aid examines patterns of regime and leadership change in
the Third World since 1955. It is based on a computerized chronology of
leadership and regime changes in 101 countries with populations greater
than 1 million. To illustrate the versatility of our data base, we included a
series of graphics in this paper that track levels of regime and leadership
change over time, regime duration, and mechanisms of regime change in
specific regions-Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Near East-South
Asia, and East Asia-and in the Third World as a whole.
The data base, the chronologies, and the maps are current through 30 June
1986, but, for presentational purposes, the other graphics are current only
through the end of 1985. The data base is maintained by the Political
Instability Branch in the Office of Global Issues and can be accessed on
any IBM personal computer. Analysts are encouraged to exploit the data
base in conducting their research.
Reverse Blank Confidential
GI 86-10080
December 1986
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Regime Types
1
Frequency of Change
1
Regime Change by Region
2
Frequency of Coups
2
Durability of Regimes
3
Regime Types
1 I
Frequency of Changes
11
Mechanisms of Regime Change
11
Durability of Regimes
12
Regime Types
31
Mechanisms of Regime Change
31
Regime Types
49
Frequency of Changes
49
Mechanisms of Regime Change
49
Durability of Regimes
49
Regime Types
65
Durability of Regimes
65
V Confidential
GI 86-10080
December 1986
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Leadership Change
Regime Change
Key Terms
A process whereby a country's chief executive leaves office-by either
constitutional or unconstitutional means-and is replaced by another
individual or group.
A process by which the structure of the government in power is removed and
replaced by another form of government, as when a military junta over-
throws a democratic government and establishes a military dictatorship.
Regime Type Democratic. A presidential or parliamentary system characterized by open
elections, lawful transitions of power, broad suffrage, and a political
opposition that has relatively equal opportunity for gaining power through
elections.
Military Authoritarian. A government headed by a military officer or
junta that has come to power by means of a coup or other violent means, a
fraudulent election, or succession from a previous military leader.
Civilian Authoritarian. A government led by an individual or group of
civilians who gained power through violent means, a fair or fraudulent
election, or succession, and who rule without reference to constitutional
procedures. This category includes monarchies and theocracies as well as
civilian dictatorships and single-party regimes.
Marxist-Leninist. A government led by one or more avowed Marxist-
Leninists or a group dominated by Marxist-Leninists who gained power
through a fair or fraudulent election, succession, a coup, or political
violence.
Mechanisms of Independence. A transition from possession or protectorate status to full
Regime Change political autonomy.
Constitutional. A transition from one leader or governing group to another
characterized by lawful and constitutionally approved procedures.
Government Fiat. An arbitrary order or decree made by the existing
government that changes the nature of the government, often giving the
leader or leaders extraordinary powers.
Military Coup. A violent overthrow of the existing leadership-by a group
led by or closely associated with the military-that results in a government
dominated by the military.
Other. Includes leadership changes that are the result of revolution, civil
war, or foreign intervention.
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Patterns of Regime and
Leadership Change
in the Third World
Since the mid-1960s the number of regime changes in the Third World has
declined, while the frequency of leadership change has remained fairly
constant. Latin America is the only region that has deviated significantly
from this trend, reflecting a surge in the number of democratic govern-
ments during the past five years. Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa
have experienced the greatest turnover in both regimes and leadership
during the last 30 years. The Near East-South Asian and East Asian
regions have experienced the fewest changes.
Regime Types As of 31 December 1985, of the 101 Third World countries in our data
base, more than 25 percent of the regimes were democratic, 40 percent
were civilian authoritarian, less than 20 percent were military authoritar-
ian, and about 15 percent were Marxist-Leninist.
These percentages are the result of significant shifts in numbers during the
past three decades (figure 1):
? The number of civilian authoritarian regimes had increased steadily since
the mid-to-late 1950s but since 1973 has declined to about 40 percent.
This category had accounted for approximately 45 percent of all Third
World regime types since the early 1960s.
? Democratic regimes have maintained a relatively constant share of the
total-about 25 percent-except for a surge in the early 1960s when
many African states became independent.
? The proportion of military authoritarian regimes grew in the 1960s and
early 1970s, accounting for as much as 20 percent of all regimes since
1955. Since 1974 the category's proportion has been declining.
? Marxist-Leninist regimes have gradually increased since 1955 but still
account for only a small proportion of the total.
Since 1968, there has been a clearly discernible inverse relation between
democratic and military regimes, with both types fluctuating between one-
fifth and one-third of the total.
Frequency of Change The overall number of regime changes in the Third World has steadily
declined since 1965 (figure 2). From 1960 to 1965, 72 regime changes
occurred, compared with 28 in the early 1980s. The decrease results from
the establishment and persistence of constitutional regimes in Latin
America as well as the relative stability of regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Confidential
Trends in leadership change have been more volatile-both over time and
from region to region. Latin America has experienced more leadership
changes than any other region-averaging 15 changes per country since
1955. Near East-South Asia has accounted for the fewest changes-
averaging six per country over the past 30 years.
Regime Change Over the last three decades, Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced the
by Region greatest number of regime changes (109), followed by Latin America (90).
The Near East-South Asia and East Asia regions, respectively, have
recorded significantly fewer regime changes (63 and 46).
Since the mid-1970s, Latin America has seen a dramatic increase in the
number of regime changes, while the number of such changes in the Near
East-South Asia and East Asia-especially during the past five years-
has dropped markedly (figure 3). Most of the changes in Latin America
have been in democratic regimes; in Sub-Saharan Africa most of the
changes have been in civilian authoritarian regimes.
Mechanisms of Independence was the primary mechanism of regime change in the Third
Regime Change World from 1955 to 1965. In the mid-1970s, constitutional transitions and
military coups took the lead, accounting for more than four-fifths of all re-
gime changes (figure 4). While the significant proportion of military coups
has remained constant, the proportion of constitutional transitions has
fluctuated widely, accounting for from as little as 14 percent of all changes
in any five-year period to more than 40 percent in others. Regime change
by government fiat has consistently accounted for 15 percent of all regime
changes throughout the period of this study.
Frequency of Coups Although the frequency of coups has been declining in all four regions
since the early 1970s, the Near East-South Asia and East Asia regions
stand out as the least coup-prone (figure 5), with five in any five-year period
in East Asia and six in the Near East-South Asian region. Our data base
shows:
? Latin America accounting for 35 percent of all Third World coups, while
comprising more than 20 percent of the countries. The frequency of
coups in this region has declined sharply, however, from a high of 13 in
the early 1960s to only three in the early 1980s.
? Sub-Saharan Africa accounting for about 33 percent of all coups, while
comprising 37 percent of the countries. As is the case with Latin
America, Sub-Saharan Africa has shown a dramatic decline in the
frequency of coups, decreasing from a high of 12 in the early 1970s to
only five in the early 1980s.
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? The Near East-South Asia region accounting for about 25 percent of all
Third World coups, while comprising 28 percent of the countries.
? East Asia accounting for only 10 percent of all Third World coups, while
comprising 13 percent of the countries.
Durability of Regimes This measure compares the longevity and durability of the four general
regime types (figure 6). Military authoritarian regimes constitute the
largest number of regimes in our data base, but they tend to be the least
durable. Conversely, Marxist-Leninist regimes are few in number but by
far the most durable:
? Only about 10 percent of all military regimes have lasted more than 10
years, fewer than 40 percent have remained in power for five years.
? Democratic and civilian authoritarian regimes have fared much better;
both regime types have a significant proportion-well over one-fourth-
and have remained in power for more than 10 years.
? Marxist-Leninist regimes account for less than 5 percent of all regimes,
and all of the regimes have been in power for at least six years.
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Methodological Note
This Reference Aid-and the computer data base that supports it-tracks
patterns of leadership and regime change in 101 Third World countries
with populations greater than 1 million since 1955. It includes 718 entries.
Information was collected from a variety of unclassified sources, such as
Facts on File and The New York Times Index, and verified by analysts in
the Office of Leadership Analysis and in the appropriate regional offices.
The data base consists of a textual chronology of each event (organized by
region) and a series of numerically coded computer entries that correspond
to the chronologies. The computer package is compatible with the standard
IBM personal computer.
Leadership changes are coded by the cause of the change (such as coup, as-
sassination, and loss of parliamentary support) and the mechanism by
which the new leader is selected (election, succession, imposition by the
military, and so forth). Elections are termed fraudulent if the sources are in
general agreement that the outcome was manipulated by such actions as
ballot box stuffing, selling votes, misrepresenting the vote count, or
preventing eligible voters from casting ballots. In addition, both the process
of change and the selection mechanisms are aggregated to facilitate the
sorting of scheduled versus unscheduled changes, as well as constitutional
versus illegal selection mechanisms.
Each leadership change is recorded with the regime type noted. Regime
changes are aggregated into three broad categories-authoritarian, demo-
cratic, and oligarchic-and then divided into more discrete groups. In
addition, each event is coded by region, subregion, country, date, and
duration. In cases where the type of regime changed but the leader did not,
the regime change is entered as a new event.
The data base can be used to:
? Answer historical questions about leadership succession.
? Generate a list of coups by region, date, and the ranks of the officers
involved.
? Develop a subset of events to test, for example, whether links exist
between corruption and instability.
? Determine the frequency of coups versus other kinds of leadership
changes over the last three decades.
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? Generate a list of heads of state who have been assassinated or died in
office.
? Sort scheduled versus unschedulded, or constitutional versus unconstitu-
tional leadership changes.
The data also are entered in an SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social
Sciences) file, allowing an analyst to perform simple sorting and crosstab
operations as well as more sophisticated statistical manipulations, includ-
ing correlation and regression analysis.
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Figure 1
Figure 2
Third World: Major Regime Types
Third World: Frequency of Regime and
by Year, 1955-85
Leadership Changes, 1956-85
Democratic
0
Regime changes
Military authoritarian
0
Leadership changes
Civilian authoritarian/one party
Marxist-Leninist
= I I I I I
31051011$6 3105" 11.86 25X1
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Figure 3 Figure 4
Third World: Frequency of Regime Change Third World: Regime Change Process,
by Region, 1956-85 1956-85
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
E] Near East-South Asia
0 East Asia
1956-60
1961-65
Total: 67
Total: 72
25 14
17-71 Democratic
Military coup
Government fiat
Independence
Other
1956-60
Total: 67
1966-70
1971-75
1966-70
Total: 48
Total: 48
Total: 48
7
8
4
1961-65
Total: 72
6
1971-75
Total: 48 4
11 __ 10
1981-85
Total: 28
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Figure 5 Figure 6
Third World: Frequency of Coups Third World: Regime Duration
by Region, 1956-85 by Type, 1956-85
IIIIIiihiIIII nn nn n
Ilnnnlln II
Civilian Authoritarian/
One Party
0 1956- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 1956- 61- 66- 71- 76- 81- 0 ?1 i 2 3 4
60 65 70 75 80 85 60 65 70 75 80 85
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Latin American countries have experienced only half as many regime
changes during the past 10 years as during the first 10 years of this study.
The number of leadership changes has also declined-albeit less dramati-
cally. These trends-as well as the decline in the number of military
coups-are consistent with overall Third World patterns. Latin America is
unique, however, in the surge of transfers to civilian rule noted during the
past five years.
Regime Types Latin American regimes have become predominantly democratic in recent
years. As of June 1986, 15 of the 22 Latin American countries in our data
base were classified as democratic regimes (figure 7). By comparison, less
than one-fifth was military regimes-including the junta now governing
Haiti. Mexico represents the only civilian authoritarian regime, and Cuba
and Nicaragua the only Marxist-Leninist regimes in the region.
Over the past three decades, the number of democratic and military
regimes has varied inversely, reflecting much the same pattern observed for
the Third World as a whole (figure 8). Since the mid-1970s, the number of
military regimes has been decreasing sharply, while the number of
democratic regimes has been increasing.
Both civilian authoritarian and Marxist-Leninist regimes have persisted at
low levels. Civilian authoritarian regimes generally have accounted for
from less than 5 percent to a high of 25 percent of all Latin American re-
gimes. The Marxist-Leninist camp has been represented by Cuba, and
more recently by Nicaragua.
Frequency of Changes The numbers of regime and leadership changes in Latin America declined
sharply from the mid-1950s until the mid-1970s but have increased
steadily since then-a trend that runs counter to the general pattern in the
Third World (figure 9). Most of the regime and leadership changes in the
last 10 years, however, have been achieved by constitutional means as more
countries adopted democratic forms of government (figure 10).
Mechanisms of Since 1956, 85 percent of all regime changes in Latin America have been
Regime Change by either constitutional means or military coup. Both means of regime
change have varied widely over the last 30 years, with constitutional
transition undergoing the greater fluctuations. The number of military
coups in Latin America has declined sharply, particularly over the last five
years. In general, coups by general officers have outnumbered coups by
lower-grade officers, but only by a narrow margin (figure 10).
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Durability of Regimes Military authoritarian and democratic regimes have accounted for a large
majority of all regimes in Latin America over the last three decades
(figures 11 and 12). One-third of all Latin American military regimes have
remained in power for less than a year, and nearly three-quarters of them
have lasted for no more than three years. Only one-sixth of them lasted
longer than 10 years.
Latin American democratic regimes, like their military counterparts, have
accounted for more than 25 percent of all regimes in power in Latin
America since 1955, and they have been more durable. In fact, three
democratic regimes-in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Venezuela-have
remained in power for more than 25 years. Moreover, Jamaica and
Trinidad-Tobago have enjoyed democratic rule since gaining their indepen-
dence in the early 1960s.
Of the civilian authoritarian regimes, only three-Mexico, Nicaragua, and
Haiti-held power for more than 25 years, and two of these-Nicaragua
and Haiti-are no longer in power. Of the Marxist-Leninist countries,
Cuban President Castro has remained in power for more than 25 years and
the Sandinista Directorate in Nicaragua for over six years.
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Figure 7
Latin America: Regime Types in Power as of 31 June 1986
DOMINICAN
BEPUBUC
O Democratic
O Military authoritarian
O Civilian authoritarian/one party
O Marxist-Leninist
1955
1965
1975
Argentina
0
0
0
Bolivia
0
0
0
Brazil
0
0
0
Chile
0
0
0
Colombia
0
0
0
Costa Rica
0
0
0
Cuba
0
0
0
Dominican Republic
0
0
0
Ecuador
0
0
0
El Salvador
0
0
0
Guatemala
0
0
0
Haiti
0
0
0
Honduras
0
0
0
Jamaica
0
0
Mexico
0
0
0
Nicaragua
0
0
0
Panama
0
0
0
Paraguay
0
0
0
Peru
0
0
0
Trinidad and Tobago
0
0
Uruguay
0
0
0
Venezuela
0
0
0
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Figure 8 Figure 9
Latin America: Major Regime Types Latin America: Frequency of Regime and
by Year, 1955-85 Leadership Changes, 1956-85
Democratic
Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian/one party
Marxist-Leninist
Regime changes
Leadership changes
Indicates the type of regime in power for the longest period
in a given year. Countries are included at independence.
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Figure 10 Figure 11
Latin America: Regime Change Process, Latin America: Regime Duration by Type,
1956-85 1956-85
Democratic Government fiat
0 Coup by general E] Independence
officer Other
Coup by lower
grade officer
1956-60
Total: 25
1966-70
Total: 12
1976-80
Total:12 1
1961-65 Democratic Marxist-Leninist
Total: 23
3 4 15
2 D
10
1971-75
Total: 5
1
5
1 n n
Military Authoritarian
n d n n
- 11234567891 0 1234567891 0 b . N . N
310520114%
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Figure 12
Latin America: Leadership and Regime Change, 1955-86
o Democratic
o Military authoritarian
o Civilian authoritarian/one party
o Marxist-Leninist
A Leadership change
This graph may not agree with the appendix of leadership
and regime changes because in many cases nominal
leadership changes hands but a former leader or group
retains actual authority.
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Leadership Change in Latin America, 1955-86
Argentina
1983 30 October Raul Alfonsin elected President.
1982 22 June Gen. Reynaldo Bignone named President by junta.
1981 22 December Lt. Gen. Galtieri named President by junta.
1980 3 October Gen. Roberto Viola named President by junta.
1976 29 March Lt. Gen. Jorges Videla named President by junta.
24 March Lt. Gen. Jorges Videla and Brig. Gen. Orlando Agosti assume power after coup.
1974 1 July Vice President Isabel Peron succeeds to presidency after death of her husband.
1973 23 September Juan Peron elected President.
13 July Chamber of Deputies Chairman Raul Lastiri constitutionally becomes Interim
President after resignation of predecessor.
11 March Dr. Hector J. Campora elected President.
1971 23 March
1970 9 April
1966 29 April
1963 31 July
1962 30 March
Lt. Gen. Alejandro A. Lanusse named President by junta after coup.
Brig. Gen. Roberto Marcelo Livingston assumes power after coup.
Lt. Gen. Juan Carlos Ongania assumes power after coup.
Arturo Illia elected President; fraudulent election.
Senate President Jose Maria Guido constitutionally succeeds to presidency after
coup led by Gen. Raul Alejandro Poggi, Adm. Augustine Penas, and Brig. Gen.
Cayo Antonio Alsena.
1958 23 February Arturo Frondizi elected President; fraudulent election.
1955 14 November Gen. Pedro Eugenio Aramburu assumes power after coup.
17 September Gen. Edwardo Lonardi heads junta after coup deposes Juan Peron.
1985 5 August Victor Paz Estenssoro elected President by Congress in runoff after failing to get a
majority in fair election in July.
1982 5 October Civilian Hernan Siles Zuazo elected President by Congress; military returns power
to Congress (elected in May), which in turn elects Siles Zuazo.
21 August Gen. Guido Vildoso Calderon named President by junta.
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1981
September
Gen. Celso Torrelio Villa named President by junta.
4 August
Gen. Waldo Bernal Pereira heads junta after senior officers revolt.
1980
17 July
Maj. Gen. Luis Garcia Meza Tejada assumes power after coup.
May
Hernan Siles Zuazo elected President.
Civilian Lydia Gueiler Tejada named President by civilian and military factions
after resignation of predecessor.
1 November
Col. Alberto Natash Busch assumes power after coup.
6 August
Walter Guevara Arze elected Interim President by Congress after general election
fails to produce a majority.
1978
24 November
Gen. David Padilla Arancibia assumes power after junior officers' coup.
21 August
Gen. Juan Pereda Asbun seizes power after his earlier election to presidency in
July is annulled by Supreme Court.
1971
22 August
Col. Hugo Banzer Suarez assumes power after coup.
1970
7 October
Gen. Juan Jose Torres assumes power after coup.
1969
27 September
Gen. Alfredo Ovando Candia assumes power after coup.
28 April
Vice President Luis Adolfo Siles Salinas constitutionally succeeds to presidency
after death of predecessor.
1966
6 August
Gen. Rene Barrientos Ortuno elected President; fraudulent election.
1965
5 May
Gen. Alfredo Ovando Candia and Gen. Rene Barrientos Ortuno assume power
after coup; Ovando holds power from June to August.
1964
31 May
Victor Paz Estenssoro reelected President; Gen. Rene Barrientos Ortuno holds
power from November 1964 to May 1965.
1960
8 August
1956
8 August
Brazil
1985
21 April
Jose Sarney Costa constitutionally succeeds to presidency after death of Tancredo
de Alimeda Neves.
15 January
Tancredo de Alimeda Neves elected President.
1979
15 March
Gen. Joao Baptista Figueiredo elected President; fraudulent election.
1974
21 February
Gen. Ernesto Geisel elected President; fraudulent election.
1969
7 October
Gen. Emilio Garrastazue Medici named President by military.
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1964 3 April
1961 26 August
1960 2 October
1956 31 January
1955 11 November
8 August
Chile
1973 11 September
1970 5 September
1964 4 November
1958 4 November
Colombia
1986 25 May
1982 31 May
1978 4 June
1974 22 April
1970 20 April
1966 8 August
1962 8 August
Gen. Lyra Tabares, Air Marshal Marcio de Souza e Mello, and Gen. Augusto Ce-
zar de Castro Moniz de Aragao assume power after President incapacitated by
stroke.
Gen. Arthur da Costa e Silva elected President by parliament; fraudulent election.
Gen. Humberto de Alencar Castello Branco named President by purged Chamber
of Deputies after civilian-military coup.
Vice President Joao Goulart constitutionally succeeds to presidency after resigna-
tion of predecessor.
Janio da Silva Quadros elected President.
Juscelino Kubitschek inaugurated President (from 1955 election).
Gen. Baptista Teixeira Lott assumes power after coup; Nereu Ramos elected
Interim President by Congress; fraudulent election.
Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Carlos Coimbra da Luz constitutionally
succeeds as Acting President after predecessor (Cafe Filho) takes indefinite sick
leave.
Juscelino Kubitschek elected President (does not assume office until 1956).
Gen. Augusto Pinochet Ugarte heads junta after coup.
Dr. Salvador Allende Gossens elected President.
Eduardo Frei Montalva elected President.
Jorge Alessandri elected President.
Virgilio Barco Vargas elected President.
Belisario Betancur Cuartas elected President.
Julio Cesar Turbay Ayala elected President.
Alfonso Lopez Michelsen elected President.
Misael Pastrana Borrero elected President.
Carlos Lleras Restrepo elected President.
Leon Guillermo Valencia elected President.
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Confidential
1958 4 May
1957 10 May
April
Costa Rica
1986 2 February
1982 7 February
1978 5 February
1974 3 February
1970 1 February
1966 7 February
1962 4 February
1958 2 February
Cuba
1959 1 January
1958 3 November
Dominican Republic
1986 16 May
1982 4 July
16 May
1978 16 May
1974 16 May
1970 16 May
1966 1 January
Alberto Lleras Camargo elected President.
Maj. Gen. Garriel Paris heads junta after predecessor forced to resign following
riots.
Gustavo Rojas Pinilla reelected by Constituent Assembly; fraudulent election.
Oscar Arias elected President (democratic regime).
Luis Alberto Monge Alvarez elected President.
Rodrigo Carazo Odeo elected President.
Daniel Oduber Quiros elected President.
Jose Figueres Ferrer elected President.
Jose Trejos Fernandez elected President.
Francisco Jose Orlich Bolmareich elected President.
Mario Echandi Jimenez elected President.
Fidel Castro comes to power through rural insurgency and urban rebellion;
declares himself a Marxist-Leninist in 1961.
Fulgencio Batista reelected; fraudulent election.
Joaquin Balaguer elected President.
Vice President Jacobo Majluta Azar succeeds to presidency after suicide of
predecessor (Antonio Guzman) during interim between Blanco's election to
presidency and assumption of office in August.
Salvador Jorge Blanco elected President.
Antonio Guzman elected President.
Joaquin Balaguer reelected President.
Joaquin Balaguer reelected President.
Joaquin Balaguer elected President.
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1965 3 September
7 May
24 April
1963 22 December
25 September
1962 20 December
18 January
18 November
14 November
30 May
Ecuador
1984 6 May
1981 24 May
Hector Garcia Godoy becomes Provisional President with US support after
resignation of predecessor.
Antonio Imbert Barrera assumes power of civilian-military government; Francisco
A. Caamano Deno is Constitutional President.
Jose Rafael Molina Urena becomes Acting President with US support in context
of civil war.
Donald Reid Cabral named President by junta after resignation of predecessor.
Civilian Emilio de los Santos named head of junta after coup led by Gen. Antonio
Imbert Barreras and Gen. Luis Amiama Tio.
Juan Bosch elected President.
Rafael Bonnelly named President after Air Force senior officers' coup returns
Council of State to power.
Gen. Pedro Rodrigues Echavarria leads coup that deposes Council of State and
figurehead President Joaquin Balaguer.
Council of State assumes power with US support; Joaquin Balaguer again becomes
figurehead President.
President Joaquin Balaguer inherits executive power after Hector and Arismendi
Trujillo go into exile.
Hector and Arismendi Trujillo assume power after Rafael Trujillo goes into exile;
Joaquin Balaguer remains figurehead President.
Rafael Trujillo Jr. assumes power after assassination of his father; Joaquin
Balaguer is figurehead President.
Vice President Balaguer consitutionally succeeds to presidency after resignation of
predecessor; Rafael Trujillo retains power.
Hector Trujillo reelected President; fraudulent election; Rafael Trujillo retains
power.
Vice President Osvaldo Hurtado Larrea constitutionally succeeds to Presidency
after death of predecessor.
Jaime Roldos Aguilera elected President.
Adm. Alfredo Paveda Burbano, Gen. Luis Guillermero Duran Arcentales, and
Gen. Luis Franco Anibal Leoro assume power after coup.
Gen. Guillermo Rodriguez Lara assumes power after coup.
Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra elected President; assumes dictatorial powers in 1970.
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Confidential
1966 17 November
29 March
1960 1 September
1956 1 September
El Salvador
1984 6 May
1982 29 April
1980 13 December
1979 15 October
1977 20 February
1972 20 February
1967 5 March
1962 29 April
1961 26 January
1960 27 October
1956 4 March
Guatemala
1985 8 December
1983 8 August
1982 23 March
7 March
Otto Arosemena Gomez elected President by Constituent Assembly.
Clemente Yeroui Indaburu named consensus Provisional President by political
factions.
Cpt. Ramon Castro Jigon heads junta of senior officers after coup.
Vice President Carlos Julio Arosemena Monroy assumes power after coup led by
Air Force officers.
Camilo Ponce Enriquez elected President.
Jose Napoleon Duarte elected President.
Alvaro Alfredo Magana Borja elected President by Constituent Assembly.
Jose Napoleon Duarte named President by civilian-military junta.
Col. Adolfo Arnoldo Majano and Col. Jaime Abdul Gutierrez head civilian-
military junta after coup.
Gen. Carlos Humberto Romero elected President; fraudulent election.
Col. Arturo Armando Molina elected President; fraudulent election.
Gen. Fidel Sanchez Hernandez elected President.
Col. Julio Adalberto Rivera elected President; fraudulent election.
Col. Anibal Portillo and Col. Julio Adalberto Rivera head anti-Communist
military junta after coup.
Col. Cesar Yanes heads leftist civilian-military junta after coup.
Lt. Col. Jose Maria Lemus elected President; fraudulent election.
Marco Vinicio Cerezo Arevalo elected President (democratic regime).
Brig. Gen. Oscar Humberto Mejia Victores assumes power after senior officers'
coup.
Gen. Efrain Rios Montt heads junta after junior officers' coup.
Gen. Anibal Guevara elected President; fraudulent election.
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1978 5 March
1974 3 March
1970 21 March
1957 October
27 July
1971 21 April
1964 14 June
1961 5 May
1957 22 October
14 June
26 May
21 May
6 April
7 February
Romeo Lucas Garcia elected President; fraudulent election.
Gen. Kjell Laugerud Garcia elected President; fraudulent election.
Col. Carlos Arana Osorio elected President by Legislature after general election
fails to produce a majority; fraudulent election.
Civilian Julio Cesar Mendez Montenegro elected President by Legislature after
general election fails to produce a majority.
Col. Enrique Peralta Azurdia assumes power after coup.
Gen. Miguel Ydigoras Fuentes elected President after popular demonstrations
force the government to void results of election in October 1957.
Miguel Ortiz Passarelli elected President; fraudulent election.
Vice President Luis Arturo Gonzales Lopez assumes power after assassination of
predecessor by palace guard.
Lt. Gen. Henri Namphy named head of military-civilian governing council after
President-for-Life Jean-Claude Duvalier flees the country during a series of
popular demonstrations (military authoritarian).
Jean-Claude Duvalier becomes President after death of his father.
Francois Duvalier elected President for Life; fraudulent election.
Francois Duvalier reelected President; fraudulent election.
Civilian Francois Duvalier elected President; fraudulent election.
Brig. Gen. Antonio Kebreau heads junta after coup.
Piere Eustache Daniel Fignole named President by military-civilian coalition.
Gen. Leon Cantave assumes power after forced resignation of predecessor.
Civilian junta assumes power after forced resignation of predecessor.
Civilian Frank Sylvain named Provisional President by Army after resignation of
predecessor.
Chief Justice Joseph Nemours Pierre-Louis succeeds to presidency after resigna-
tion of predecessor following general strike.
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Confidential
Honduras
1985
25 November
Jose Azcona Hoyo elected President (democratic regime).
1981
29 November
1978
7 August
Gen. Policarpo Paz Garcia, Gen. Domingo Alvarez, and Gen. Almicar Alaya
assume power after coup.
1975
22 April
Gen. Juan Alberto Melgar Castro assumes power after junior officers' coup.
1972
4 December
Gen. Oswaldo Lopez Arellano assumes power after coup.
1971
28 March
Ramon Ernesto Cruz elected President; fraudulent election; Gen. Oswaldo Lopez
Arellano retains power.
Gen. Oswaldo Lopez Arellano elected President by Constituent Assembly; fraudu-
lent election.
1963
3 October
Brig. Gen. Oswaldo Lopez Arellano assumes power after coup.
1957
21 December
Dr. Ramon Villeda Morales elected President by Constituent Assembly.
1956
21 October
Gen. Roque J. Rodriguez heads junta after coup.
Jamaica
1980
30 October
Edward Philip George Seaga elected Prime Minister.
1972
29 February
Michael Manley elected Prime Minister after resignation of predecessor.
1967
11 April
Hugh L. Shearer succeeds as Prime Minister after resignation of predecessor.
22 February
Donald Sangster elected Prime Minister.
1965
January
Donald Sangster succeeds as Prime Minister after resignation of predecessor.
28 November
Sir Alexander Bustamante reelected Prime Minister.
1962
6 August
Independence; Sir Alexander Bustamante previously elected Prime Minister.
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Mexico
1982 4 July
Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado elected President; de facto one-party state.
1976 4 July
Jose Lopez Portillo elected President; de facto one-party state.
1970 5 July
Juis Echeverria Alvarez elected President; de facto one-party state.
1964 5 July
Gustavo Diaz Ordaz elected President; de facto one-party state.
1958 6 July
Adolfo Lopez Mateos elected President; de facto one-party state.
Nicaragua
1981
4 March
Jose Daniel Ortega Saaveda named Coordinator of Junta; Sandinista National
1979
19 July
Directorate holds executive power.
Sandinista National Directorate assumes power; Marxist-Leninist state.
1974
1 September
Anastasio Somoza Debayle reelected President; fraudulent election.
1967
5 February
Anastasio Somoza Debayle elected President; fraudulent election.
1966
3 August
Lorenzo Guerrero Gutierrez elected President by Congress after death of prede-
1963
3 February
cessor; fraudulent election; Somoza retains power.
Rene Schick elected President; fraudulent election; Somoza retains power.
1957
3 February
Luis Somoza Debayle elected President; fraudulent election.
1956
30 September
Luis Somoza Debayle assumes power after assassination of his father, Gen.
Anastasio Somoza Garcia.
First Vice President Eric Arturo Delvalle named President after Nicolas Ardito
Barletta deposed; Gen. Antonio Noriega retains power.
Nicolas Ardito Barletta elected President; fraudulent election; National Guard
under Gen. Antonio Noriega retains power.
Vice President Jorge Illueca succeeds to presidency after resignation of predeces-
sor; National Guard under Gen. Antonio Noriega retains power.
Vice President Ricardo de la Espriella succeeds to presidency after resignation of
predecessor; Gen. Antonio Noriega becomes head of National Guard.
Gen. Ruben Dario Paredes del Rio assumes power of National Guard.
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1981
31 July
Gen. Florencio Florez becomes head of the National Guard after the death of Gen.
Omar Torrijos.
1978
11 October
Aristides Royo Sanchez elected President; fraudulent election; Gen. Omar Torri-
jos retains power.
1969
19 December
Demetrio Basileo Lakas Babas named President by junta headed by Col. Omar
Torrijos; Torrijos retains power.
1968
11 October
12 May
5 April
Col. Omar Torrijos Herrera heads junta after coup led by himself and Col. Jose
Maria Pinilla; Torrijos holds power.
Arnulfu Arias Madrid elected President.
Marcos A. Robles reinstated as President after impeachment ruled
unconstitutional.
Vice President Max Delvalle succeeds to presidency after impeachment of
predecessor.
1964
2 October
Marcos A. Robles elected President.
1960
2 October
Roberto F. Chiari elected President.
1956
2 October
Ernesto de la Guardia elected President.
1955
2 January
Second Vice President Ricardo Arias succeeds to presidency after assassination of
predecessor, Jose Antonio Remon (First Vice President impeached and jailed).
Paraguay
1983
February
Alfredo Stroessner Mattiauda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1978
12 February
Alfredo Stroessner Mattiauda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1973
11 February
Alfredo Stroessner Mattiauda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1966
1 February
Alfredo Stroessner Mattiauda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1963
16 August
Alfredo Stroessner Mattiauda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1958
November
Alfredo Stroessner Mattiauda elected President; fraudulent election.
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Peru
1985 14 April
1980 18 May
1975 29 August
1968 4 October
1963 9 June
3 March
1962 18 July
29 June
1981 10 November
9 March
1976 13 September
1971 24 May
1966 7 November
1962 31 August
Uruguay
1984 25 November
1981 1 September
1976 1 September
13 June
1973 8 February
Alan Garcia Perez elected President.
Fernando Belaunde Terry elected President.
Gen. Francisco Morales Bermudez assumes power after coup.
Gen. Juan Velasco Alvarado assumes power after coup.
Fernando Belaunde Terry elected President.
Gen. Nicholas Lindley Lopez assumes power after dispute with other members of
ruling junta.
Maj. Gen. Ricardo Perez Godoy heads junta after coup.
Victor Raul Haya de la Torre elected President by Congress after general election
fails to produce a majority.
Manuel Prado y Ugarteche elected President.
George Chambers elected Prime Minister.
George Chambers succeeds as Prime Minister after death of predecessor.
Eric Williams reelected Prime Minister.
Eric Williams reelected Prime Minister.
Eric Williams reelected Prime Minister.
Eric Williams elected Prime Minister at independence.
Julio Maria Sanguinetti elected President.
Gen. Gregorio Alvarez Armellino named President by junta.
Civilian Aparicio Mendez named President by junta.
Vice President Alberto Demicheli named Interim President by junta.
Junta headed by Gen. Cesar Augusto Martinez and Brig. Gen. Jose Perez Caldas
assume power; Juan Maria Bordaberry remains figurehead President.
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1966 27 November
Juan Maria Bordaberry elected President.
Vice President Jorge Pacheco Areco constitutionally succeeds to presidency after
death of predecessor.
Oscar Daniel Gestido elected President; National Executive Council replaced by
1 March
single chief executive.
Alberto Helen Usher succeeds to presidency.
1965 .7 February
Washington Beltran succeeds to presidency after death of predecessor.
1964 1 March
Luis Giannattasio succeeds to presidency.
1963 1 March
Daniel Fernandez Cresop succeeds to presidency.
1962 1 March
Faustino Harrison succeeds to presidency.
1961 1 March
Eduardo Victor Haedo succeeds to presidency.
1960 1 March
Benito Nardone succeeds to presidency.
1959 1 March
Martin R. Echegoyen succeeds to presidency.
1958 1 March
Carlo L. Fischer succeeds to presidency.
1957 1 March
Arturo Lezama succeeds to presidency.
1956 1 March
Alberto Zubiria succeeds to presidency.
1955 2 March
Batlle Berres becomes President (National Executive Council supercedes presiden-
Venezuela
tial system-each member of the majority party on the council serves in rotation
as president).
1983
4 December
Jaime Lusinchi elected President.
1978
3 December
Luis Herrera Campins elected President.
1973
9 December
Carlos Andres Perez elected President.
1968
1 December
Rafael Caldera Rodriguez elected President.
1963
1 December
Raul Leoni elected President.
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1958 7 December Romulo Betancourt elected President.
14 November Dr. Edgar Sanabria named head of junta.
23 January Adm. Wolfgang Larrazabal heads junta after civilian-military coup.
Note: Leadership change can involve both a change in
the leadership and in the regime type, but all regime
changes do not necessarily involve a change in leader-
ship.
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Between 1955 and 1965, the number of independent regimes in Sub-
Saharan Africa increased dramatically, from only three-Ethiopia, Libe-
ria, and South Africa-in 1955 to 37 in 1965 (figure 13). Nearly two-thirds
of the newly independent African regimes began as democracies, but only a
handful of these democracies remain.
Sub-Saharan African regimes have experienced the greatest turnover in
the Third World, but the pace of change has slowed considerably in recent
years. For example, the number of Marxist-Leninist regimes in the region
grew rapidly in the 1970s but has not increased since 1979.
Regime Types Civilian authoritarian governments became the dominant regime type in
1965 and remain so to this day (figure 14). As of June 1986, one-half of all
regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa were civilian authoritarian. Democratic
and military regimes, respectively, account for about one-tenth and one-
fifth of all regimes in the region. More than one-tenth of all Sub-Saharan
African regimes are Marxist-Leninist.
Democratic regimes were well represented in the early 1960s, accounting
for over one-half of all regimes in the region. Since then, the proportion of
democratic regimes has declined to about one-tenth. As is the case in Latin
America, the number of military regimes has varied inversely with
democratic regimes since the late 1960s. The number of military regimes
peaked at 16 in 1974 but has declined markedly since then.
The first Marxist-Leninist regime came to power in Benin only in 1972.
Congo, Mozambique, Angola, and Ethiopia joined the Marxist-Leninist
camp in the middle and late 1970s, and all remain in power.
Frequency of Change During the period from mid-1950 to 1970 the level of regime change
remained fairly constant, while the number of leadership changes varied
from a low of 17 (1956-60) to a high of 45 (1966-70) (figure 15). From
1981-85, the number of regime changes slowed appreciably, dropping from
20 to 10 per year, but the number of leadership changes remained high.
Mechanisms of Independence was the dominant means of regime change in Africa until
Regime Change the mid-1960s. Since then, military coups and government-fiated changes
have come to dominate (figure 16). From 1956 to 1965, independence
accounted for about 60 percent of all regime change. Thereafter, indepen-
dence declined as a major factor of regime change, with Djibouti and
Zimbabwe achieving independence in 1977 and 1980, respectively.
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Military coups have been an important mechanism of regime change in the
region, accounting for about half of all regime changes during the past five
years. Neither general officers' nor junior officers' coups have tended to
dominate, although the former have outnumbered the latter over the past
decade.
Durability of Regimes More than one-third of all African regimes during the past 30 years have
been civilian authoritarian; they also have tended to be the most durable in
the Third World, with nearly half of the civilian authoritarian regimes
remaining in power for 10 years or more (figure 17). Democratic regimes
have accounted for more than one-fourth of all regimes in Africa, but only
one-fifth of these have remained in power for 10 or more years. Marxist-
Leninist regimes conform to the general Third World pattern-few in
number, but highly durable. All five Marxist-Leninist regimes have been in
power for at least six years. By contrast, military authoritarian regimes
account for nearly one-third of all African regimes, and slightly more than
half have lasted for five years or more.
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Figure 13
Sub-Saharan Africa: Regime Types in Power as of 31 June 1986
O Democratic
O Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian/one party
O Marxist-Leninist
1955
1965
1975
Angola
O
Benin
0
0
Botswana
0
Burkina
0
0
Burundi
0
0
Cameroon
O
C)
Central African Republic
0
0
Chad
O
0
Congo
Ci
0
Djibouti
Ethiopia
O
O
0
Gabon
C)
O
Gambia, The
0
0
Ghana
0
0
Guinea
0
O
Ivory Coast
O
O
Kenya
0
(1
Lesotho
C
Liberia
O
O
O
1955
1965
1975
Madagascar
O
C)
Malawi
0
0
Mali
C)
O
Mauritius
0
Mozambique
C)
Niger
C)
0
Nigeria
0
0
Rwanda
O
C)
Senegal
C
C)
Sierra Leone
0
O
Somalia
0
C)
South Africa
0
0
0
Tanzania
C)
C)
Togo
0
Uganda
C)
0
Zaire
C)
C
Zambia
0
O
Zimbabwe
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Figure 14 Figure 15
Sub-Saharan Africa: Major Regime Types Sub-Saharan Africa: Frequency of Regime and
by Year, 1955-85 Leadership Changes, 1956-85
Democratic
Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian/one party
Marxist-Leninist
Indicates the type of regime in power for the longest period
in a given year. Countries are included at independence.
0 Leadership changes
310523 1186 L
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Figure 16 Figure 17
Sub-Saharan Africa: Regime Change Process, Sub-Saharan Africa: Regime Duration by Type.
1956-85 1956-85
0 Democratic 0 Government fiat
0 Coup by general 0 Independence
officer ME! Other
? Coup by lower
grade officer
1956-60
Total: 20
1961-65 Democratic Marxist-Leninist
Total: 22
1966-70
Total: 20
1976-80
Total: 15
1971-75
Total: 22
2
1981-85
Total: 10
I~II~~~~ III
-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10'_^,,~ -I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10=N
2N T
5
6 nn
nn
0
Military Authoritarian Civilian Authoritarian/
One Party
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Figure 18
Sub-Saharan Africa: Leadership and Regime Change, 1955-86
? Democratic
o Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian/one party
Marxist-Leninist
A Leadership change
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Ghana
Guinea
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritius
Mozambique
Niger
Nigeria
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Leadership Change in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1955-86
Angola
1979 20 September Jose Eduardo dos Santos elected President by legislature after death of predeces-
sor; Marxist-Leninist state.
Benin
1980 February
1972 27 October
1968 28 June
5 May
1967 17 December
1965 22 December
29 November
1960 12 December
1 August
Independence; Dr. Agostinho Neto named President by Popular Movement for the
Liberation of Angola (Labor Union).
Mathieu Kerekou elected President by National Assembly; Marxist-Leninist state.
Maj. Mathieu Kerekou assumes power after coup; declares Marxist-Leninist state
in 1975.
Hubert Maga named President by junta.
Lt. Col. Emile de Souza, Lt. Col. Benois Sinzogan, and Lt. Col. Maurice
Kouandete head junta after coup.
Civilian Emile Zinsou named compromise President by Army after Col. Alphonse
Alley annuls May election.
Dr. Basile Adjou Moumouni elected President.
Col. Alphonse Alley named President after junior officers' coup led by Maj.
Maurice Kouandete.
Gen. Christophe Soglo assumes power after coup.
Justin Ahomadegbe named President after coup led by Gen. Christophe Soglo.
Sourou Apithy and Justin Ahomadegbe elected President and Vice President; no
single executive authority; fraudulent election.
Col. Christophe Soglo assumes power after coup.
Hubert Maga elected President.
Independence; Hubert Maga previously elected Prime Minister.
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Confidential
Botswana
1980
3 July
Quett Masire elected President after death of predecessor.
1979
20 October
Sir Seretse Khama reelected President.
1974
19 November
Sir Seretse Khama reelected President.
1969
18 October
Sir Seretse Khama reelected President.
1966
30 September
Independence; previously elected Prime Minister Seretse Khama becomes
President.
Burkina
1983
5 August
Former Premier Thomas Sankara assumes power after junior officers' coup.
1982
7 November
Maj. Jean-Baptiste Ouedraogo assumes power after coup.
1980
25 November
Col. Saye Zerbo assumes power after coup.
1966
4 January
Lt. Col. Sangoule Lamizana assumes power after coup.
1965
3 October
Maurice Yemeogo reelected President.
1960
8 December
Maurice Yemeogo elected President.
5 August
Independence; Maurice Yemeogo previously elected Prime Minister.
Burundi
1976
1 November
Lt. Col. Jean-Baptiste Bagaza assumes power after coup.
1966
29 November
Cpt. Michael Micombero assumes power after coup.
9 July
King Mwami Natare V leads palace coup and assumes power; declares one-party
state.
1965
14 July
Leopold Biha elected Prime Minister after death of predecessor.
15 January
Joseph Bamina elected Prime Minister after death of predecessor.
1964
December
Pierre Ngendandumwe elected Prime Minister.
April
Albin Nayamoya elected Prime Minister.
Independence; Andre Muheriva previously elected Prime Minister; King Mwami
Mwambutsa IV, constitutional monarch.
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Prime Minister Paul Biya constitutionally succeeds to presidency after voluntary
resignation of predecessor; one-party state.
1980
5 April
Ahmadou Ahidjo reelected President; one-party state.
1975
Ahmadou Ahidjo reelected President; one-party state.
1970
3 March
Ahmadou Ahidjo reelected President; one-party state.
1965
20 March
Ahmadou Ahidjo reelected President; declares one-party state in 1966.
1960
5 May
Ahmadou Ahidjo elected President.
1 January
Independence; Ahmadou Ahidjo previously elected Prime Minister.
1981
1 September
Gen. Andre Kolingba assumes power after coup.
15 March
David Dacko elected President.
1979
20 September
David Dacko assumes power after French-supported coup.
1965
31 December
Col. Jean-Bedel Bokassa assumes power after coup; one-party state.
1960
13 August
Independence; David Dacko previously elected Prime Minister.
Chad
1982
7 June
Hissein Habre assumes power during civil war.
1979
23 March
Gen. Goukouni Weddeye assumes power during civil war.
1975
15 April
Gen. Felix Malloum assumes power after military revolt.
1969
15 June
N'Garta Tombalbaye reelected President; one-party state.
1962
11 March
N'Garta Tombalbaye elected president; one-party state.
1960
11 August
Independence; N'Garta Tombalbaye becomes President; previously elected Prime
Minister.
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Confidential
Congo
1979
8 January
Col. Denis Sassou-Nguesso assumes power after coup; Marxist-Leninist state.
1977
20 March
Col. Joachom Yoahim-Opango assumes power after assassination of predecessor.
1970
3 January
Maj. Marien Ngouabi named President by junta.
1968
4 September
Cpt. Alfred Raoul named President by junta after coup led by Cpt. Marien
Ngouabi; Ngouabi retains power; declares one-party state in 1969.
1963
19 December
Alphonse Massamba-Debat elected President; one-party state.
16 August
Civilian Alphonse Massamba-Debat heads junta after coup; declares one-party
state.
Independence; Abbe Fulbert Youlou previously assumed power with French
support.
1981
June
Hassan Gouled Aptidon reelected President; declares one-party state in 1982.
1977
27 June
Independence; Hassan Gouled Aptidon previously elected President.
Ethiopia
1977
3 February
Lt. Col. Mengistu Haile-Mariam assumes power; Marxist-Leninist leaders.
1974
23 November
Gen. Teferi Bante named President by junta; Lt. Col. Mengistu Haile-Mariam
retains power.
12 September
Gen. Aman Michael Andom named chief executive by junta headed by Maj.
Mengistu Haile-Mariam after junior officers' coup deposes Emperor Haile
Selassie.
Gabon
1979 30 December
1973 25 February
Albert-Bernard Bongo reelected President.
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1967 2 December
19 March
Gambia, The
1982 5 May
1977 5 April
1972 29 March
1970 4 April
1965 18 February
Ghana
1981 21 December
1979 10 June
4 June
1978 6 July
1972 13 January
1969 1 October
1966 25 February
1960 1 July
1957 6 March
Guinea
1984 3 April
Albert-Bernard Bongo succeeds to presidency after death of Leon M'ba.
Leon M'ba elected President.
Independence; Leon M'ba previously elected Prime Minister.
Sir Dawda Jawara reelected President.
Sir Dawda Jawara reelected President.
Sir Dawda Jawara reelected President.
Sir Dawda Jawara elected President by House of Representatives.
Independence; Sir Dawda Jawara previously elected Prime Minister.
Flight Lt. Jerry Rawlings assumes power after coup.
Hilla Limann elected President.
Flight Lt. Jerry Rawlings assumes power after coup.
Lt. Gen. Frederick Akuffo assumes power after coup.
Col. Ignatius Acheampong assumes power after coup.
Dr. Kofi Busia elected Prime Minister.
Col. Emmanuel Kwashie Kotoka assumes power after coup.
Prime Minister Kwame Nkrumah elected President when Ghana becomes a
republic; declares one-party state in 1964.
Independence; Kwame Nkrumah elected Prime Minister.
Col. Lansana Conte assumes power after junior officers' coup following the death
of Ahmed Sekou Toure.
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1968 1 January
1961 15 January
1958 2 October
28 September
Ivory Coast
1985 27 October
1980 12 October
1975 16 November
1970 29 November
1965 7 November
1960 27 November
7 August
Kenya
1983 27 September
1979 10 October
1974 14 October
1966 12 December
1964 12 December
1963 12 December
Ahmed Sekou Toure reelected President; one-party state.
Ahmed Sekou Toure reelected President; one-party state.
Ahmed Sekou Toure named President by National Assembly; one-party state.
Independence; Ahmed Sekou Toure previously elected Prime Minister.
Felix Houphouet-Boigny reelected President; one-party state.
Felix Houphouet-Boigny reelected President; one-party state.
Felix Houphouet-Boigny reelected President; one-party state.
Felix Houphouet-Boigny reelected President; one-party state.
Felix Houphouet-Boigny reelected President; one-party state.
Prime Minister Felix Houphouet-Boigny elected President; one-party state.
Independence; Felix Houphouet-Boigny previously elected Prime Minister.
Daniel T. arap Moi reelected President; one-party state.
Vice President Daniel T. arap Moi elected President; fraudulent election; declares
one-party state in 1982.
Vice President Daniel T. arap Moi succeeds to presidency after death of
predecessor.
Jomo Kenyatta reelected President; fraudulent election.
Jomo Kenyatta reelected President.
Prime Minister Jomo Kenyatta elected President when Kenya becomes a republic.
Independence; Jomo Kenyatta previously elected Prime Minister.
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1980 13 April
1975 November
1971 23 July
20 January
1967 13 December
1963 8 May
1959 5 May
1955 3 May
Lesotho
1986 March
1966 4 October
Madagascar
1982 26 November
1975 15 June
1974 31 December
1972 19 May
1960 30 June
Samuel K. Doe declared winner of presidential election after two months of
deliberation; fraudulent election.
Master Sgt. Samuel K. Doe assumes power after coup.
William R. Tolbert reelected President; fraudulent election.
Vice President William R. Tolbert constitutionally succeeds to presidency after
death of predecessor.
William V. S. Tubman reelected President; fraudulent election.
William V. S. Tubman reelected President; fraudulent election.
William V. S. Tubman reelected President; fraudulent election.
William V. S. Tubman reelected President; fraudulent election.
William V. S. Tubman reelected President; fraudulent election.
Maj. Gen. J. M. Lekhanya heads military council after coup.
Independence; Chief Leabua Jonathon elected Prime Minister; King Moshoeshoe
II constitutional monarch; Prime Minister Jonathon suspends constitution in 1970
and assumes sole power.
Didier Ratsiraka reelected President; fraudulent election.
Didier Ratsiraka elected President; fraudulent election.
Lt. Comm. Didier Ratsiraka assumes power after coup.
Gen. Gabriel Ramanatsoa assumes power following riots.
Independence; Philibert Tsiranana previously elected President.
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Malawi
1976 31 May Hastings Kamuzu Banda reelected President; one-party state.
1971 6 July Hastings Kamuzu Banda elected Life-President; one-party state.
1966 21 May Hastings Kamuzu Banda elected President; one-party state.
1964 6 July Independence; Hastings Kamuzu Banda previously elected Prime Minister.
Mali
1979 19 June Moussa Traore elected President; one-party state.
1968 19 November Col. Moussa Traore assumes power after coup; declares one-party state in 1974.
1960 22 September Mali declares itself an independent republic after Senegal secedes from Federation
of Mali; Modibo Keita becomes President.
Mauritius
1983 21 August Aneerood Jugnauth reelected Prime Minister.
1982 11 June Aneerood Jugnauth elected Prime Minister.
1976 29 December Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam reelected Prime Minister.
1968 12 March Independence; Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam previously elected Prime Minister.
Mozambique
1975 25 June Samora Moises Machel assumes power after war for independence; Marxist-
Leninist state declared in 1977.
Niger
1974 15 April Lt. Col. Seyni Kountche assumes power after coup.
1970 1 October Hammani Diori reelected President; one-party state.
1965 30 September Hammani Diori reelected President; one-party state.
1960 9 November Prime Minister Hammani Diori elected President.
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Nigeria
1985
27 August
Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Babangida assumes power after coup.
1983
31 December
Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari assumes power after coup.
1983
6 September
Alhaji Shehu Shagari reelected President.
1979
12 August
Alhaji Shehu Shagari elected President.
1976
13 February
Lt. Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo named President by junta after assassination of
predecessor during coup attempt.
Gen. Murtala Ramat Mohammed heads junta after coup.
1966
1 August
Lt. Col. Yakubu Gowon assumes power after junior officers' coup.
16 January
Maj. Gen. J. T. Aguyi-Ironsi assumes power after unsuccessful coup attempt by
Maj. Chukwuma Nzeogwu and junior officers.
1960
1 October
Independence; Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa previously elected Prime Minister.
Rwanda
1983
December
Gen. Juvenal Habyarimana elected President; one-party state.
1973
5 July
Gen. Juvenal Habyarimana assumes power after coup.
1969
October
Gregoire Kayibanda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1965
October
Gregoire Kayibanda reelected President; fraudulent election.
1962
1 July
Independence; Gregoire Kayibanda previously elected President.
Senegal
1983
27 February
1981
1 January
Prime Minister Abdou Diouf constitutionally succeeds to presidency after volun-
tary resignation of predecessor.
Leopold Sedar Senghor reelected President.
Leopold Sedar Senghor reelected President; fraudulent election.
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1968 8 March
1963 December
1960 5 September
20 August
Leopold Sedar Senghor reelected President; fraudulent election.
Leopold Sedar Senghor reelected President; fraudulent election.
Leopold Sedar Senghor elected President.
Secession from Federation of Mali; Leopold Sedar Senghor previously elected
President.
Maj. Gen. Joseph Saidu Momoh succeeds Siaka Stevens as President when
Stevens retires from office; one-party state.
1968 26 April
18 April
1967 24 March
17 March
1966 28 April
1962 25 May
1961 28 April
Somalia
1980 January
1969 15 October
1967 10 June
1960 1 July
South Africa
1978 29 September
1974 24 April
Siaka Probyn Stevens named President by junta; declared one-party state in 1978.
Col. John Bangura assumes power after coup led by noncommissioned officers.
Maj. Charles Blake assumes power after Army revolt and names Col. Andrew
Juxon-Smith Head of State.
Siaka Probyn Stevens elected Prime Minister.
Albert Margai succeeds as Prime Minister after death of predecessor.
Milton Margai reelected Prime Minister.
Independence; Milton Margai previously elected Prime Minister.
Maj. Gen. Siad Barre elected President by National Assembly; one-party state.
Maj. Gen. Siad Barre assumes power after coup; declares one-party state in 1976.
Ali Abdar-Rashid Shermarke elected President by National Assembly.
Independence; Aden Abdulleh Osman elected President.
Pieter W. Botha elected Prime Minister after resignation of predecessor.
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1970 22 April
B. J. Vorster reelected Prime Minister.
1966 13 September
B. J. Vorster succeeds as Prime Minister after assassination of predecessor.
1961 18 October
Dr. H. F. Verwoerd reelected Prime Minister.
1958 2 September
Dr. H. F. Verwoerd succeeds as Prime Minister after death of predecessor.
16 April
J. G. Strijdem reelected Prime Minister.
Tanzania
1985
27 October
Ali Hassan Mwinyi elected President when Julius K. Nyerere left office; one-party
1980
26 October
state.
Julius K. Nyerere reelected President; one-party state.
1975
26 October
Julius K. Nyerere reelected President; one-party state.
1970
31 October
Julius K. Nyerere reelected President; one-party state.
1965
30 September
Julius K. Nyerere reelected President; declares one-party state in 1965.
1964
29 October
Name changed to Tanzania; Julius K. Nyerere remains President.
1962
26 April
8 November
Tanganyika, Zanzibar, and Pemba combine to form United Republic of Tanzania.
Julius K. Nyerere elected President of Tanganyika.
1961
1 May
Independence; Julius K. Nyerere previously elected Prime Minister.
Togo
1967
13 January
Lt. Col. Gnassingbe Eyadema assumes power after coup; declares one-party state
in 1969.
1961
9 April
Civilian Nicolas Grunitzky named President by junta after noncommissioned
officers' coup.
Sylvanus Olympio elected President.
1960
27 April
Independence; Sylvanus Olympio previously elected Prime Minister.
Uganda
1986
24 January
Yoweri Museveni assumes power after civil war.
1980
10 December
Milton Obote elected President; fraudulent election.
14 May
Brig. Gen. David Oyite Ojok assumes power after coup.
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1979 20 June
11 April
1971 25 January
1966 22 February
1962 29 October
Zaire
1960 14 September
Zambia
1983 27 October
1978 12 December
1973 5 December
1964 24 October
1964 26 April
1963 10 December
Zimbabwe
1980 18 April
Godfrey Binaisa named head of caretaker government by temporary Parliament.
Yusufu K. Lule named head of caretaker government by temporary Parliament
after invasion by Ugandan rebels with Tanzanian aid.
Maj. Gen. Idi Amin Dada assumes power after coup.
Prime Minister Milton Obote suspends constitution and assumes sole power.
Independence; Milton Obote previously elected Prime Minister.
Col. Mobutu Sese Seko assumes power after Army mutiny by noncommissioned
and junior officers, civil war, and UN intervention; declares a one-party state in
1971.
Independence; Patrice Lumumba and Joseph Kasavubu previously elected Prime
Minister and President; no single executive authority.
Kenneth David Kaunda reelected President; one-party state.
Kenneth David Kaunda reelected President; one-party state.
Kenneth David Kaunda reelected President; one-party state.
Independence; Prime Minister Kenneth David Kaunda becomes President; de-
clares one-party state in 1972.
Zanzibar, Pemba and Tanganyika merge to form United Republic of Tanzania
with Julius K. Nyerere as President.
Independence; Muhammed Shamte Hamadi previously elected Prime Minister.
Independence after civil war; Robert Mugabe elected Prime Minister.
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Regime Types
Frequency of Changes
The Near East-South Asia region of the Third World has been dominated
by civilian authoritarian regimes-including monarchies-for more than
two decades. This regime type accounts for approximately two-thirds of all
regimes in the region; many countries have experienced only civilian
authoritarian rule. This continuity of regime type-and leadership-has
made the Near East-South Asia region the most politically consistent in
the Third World. Since 1981, the region, which includes 28 countries, has
experienced only three regime changes and 13 leadership changes.
As of June 1986, military authoritarian and democratic regimes accounted
for slightly more than half of all regime types. Egypt, Israel, Lebanon,
India, and Sri Lanka were the only democratic regimes in the region, and
Afghanistan and South Yemen the only Marxist-Leninist regimes (figure
19). The number of civilian authoritarian regimes increased slowly during
the 1960s and reached a high of 23 in 1972 and 1973 (figure 20).
The patterns of both regime change and leadership change have been
relatively erratic, although the number of regime changes has decreased
steadily in the last 15 years from a high of 13 in the early 1970s to only
three in the early 1980s (figure 21). The number of leadership changes has
fluctuated more widely over the last three decades, but has shown a
marked decrease in recent years.
Mechanisms of Almost two-thirds of all regime changes-in the Near East-South Asia
Regime Change region have been by authoritarian means (figure 22). Military coups have
accounted for a gradually increasing share of all regime changes since the
mid-1950s, while the number of regime changes by government fiat has
been declining. Since the mid-1960s, more than two-thirds of all coups in
the region have been launched by officers below the rank of general.
Durability of Regimes Civilian authoritarian regimes have been long lived, with one-fifth remain-
ing in power for more than 10 years (figures 23 and 24). About one-fourth
of the civilian authoritarian regimes have been monarchies-the most
stable regime type in the Third World.
Military authoritarian regimes, on the other hand, have been highly
unstable. Although these regimes account for more than one-third of all
regimes during the past 30 years, only one-fourth has stayed in power
beyond five years-most notably in Libya and Pakistan.
The record for democratic regimes is mixed. While a handful of regimes-
for example, in Algeria and Syria-have lasted two years or less, some
regimes, including Israel and India, have lasted much longer.
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Figure 19
Near East-South Asia: Regime Types in Power as of 31 June 1986
O Democratic
O Military authoritarian
O Civilian authoritarian/one party
O Marxist-Leninist
1955
1965
1975
Afghanistan
O
C)
0
Algeria
0
0
Bahrain
C
Bangladesh
0
Bhutan
Egypt
..
India
0
0
Iran
C
Iraq
C)
Israel
0
0
0
Jordan
C
C
Kuwait
O
C
Lebanon
0
0
Libya
C;
C
0
1955
1965
1975
Mauritania
Morocco
Nepal
North Yemen
0
Oman
Pakistan
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
South Yemen
Sri Lanka
0
0
O
Sudan
Syria
O
0
Tunisia
O
United Arab Emirates
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Figure 20 Figure 21
Near East-South Asia: Major Regime Types Near East-South Asia: Frequency of Regime and
by Year, 1955-85 Leadership Changes, 1956-85
Democratic
Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian/one party
Marxist-Leninist
Indicates the type of regime in power for the longest period
in a given year. Countries are included at independence.
Regime changes
Leadership changes
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Figure 22 Figure 23
Near East-South Asia: Regime Near East-South Asia: Regime
Change Process, 1956-85 Duration by Type, 1956-85
El Democratic D Government fiat
El Coup by general El Independence
officer Other
Coup by lower
grade officer
1956-60
Total: 13
1966-70
Total: 9
1976-80
Total: I I
1961-65
Total: 14
1971-75
Total: 13
1981-85
Total: 3
Civilian Authoritarian/
One Party
I
-I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10'_^ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10'_^ N Nh
. N ~ . N
.. N .. ry
3I063211.86 25X1
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Figure 24
Near East-South Asia: Leadership and Regime Change, 1955-86
Democratic
Military authoritarian
o Civilian authoritarian/one party
o Marxist-Leninist
1955
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Leadership Change in the Near East-South Asia, 1955-86
Afghanistan
1986 1 May Sec. Gen. Sayid Mohammed Najibullah becomes Prime Minister after forced
resignation of Karmal.
1979 27 December Deputy Prime Minister Babrak Karmal designated President and Prime Minister
after Soviet invasion and assassination of President Hafizullah Amin; Marxist-
Leninist regime.
16 September Prime Minister Hafizullah Amin assumes power after coup against President Nur
Mohammed Taraki; Marxist-Leninist regime.
1978 30 April Nur Mohammed Taraki designated President and Prime Minister after military
coup led by Deputy Air Force Commander, Col. Abdul Qader; Marxist-Leninist
regime.
1973 19 July Gen. Mohammed Daoud assumes power after coup against King Mohammed
Zahir.
Algeria
1984 12 January Col. Chadli Bendjedid reelected President; one-party state.
1979 27 February Col. Chadli Bendjedid elected President; one-party state.
1978 27 December Col. Chadli Bendjedid succeeds President Houari Boumedienne after Boume-
dienne dies (Rabah Bitat, Speaker of the National People's Assembly, assumes the
constitutional role of Acting President prior to formal election of Bendjedid).
1965 19 June Defense Minister Houari Boumedienne assumes power after coup led by senior
officers; heads Council of the Revolution.
1963 15 September Ahmed Ben Bella elected President; fraudulent election; one-party state declared.
1962 25 September Independence; Ferhat Abbas elected President and Ahmed Ben Bella elected
Prime Minister.
Bahrain
1971 15 August Independence; the United Kingdom relinquishes sovereignty to Shakyh Isa bin
Sulman Al Khalifa.
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1981 15 November
31 May
3 November
15 August
Bhutan
1974 2 June
1972 24 July
1981 24 October
6 October
1970 15 October
28 September
Lt. Gen. Hussain Mohammed Ershad assumes power as Chief Martial Law
Administrator after coup led by senior officers.
Acting President Abdus Sattar elected President.
Vice President Abdus Sattar constitutionally succeeds Gen. Ziaur Rahman as
President after assassination of Rahman in abortive Army coup.
Gen. Ziaur Rahman formally elected President.
Gen. Ziaur Rahman formally assumes presidency after Abu Sadat Mohammed
Sayem resigns because of ill health (Ziaur Rahman had previously assumed the ti-
tle of Chief Martial Law Administrator in November 1976).
Gen. Ziaur Rahman assumes power after assassination of Maj. Gen. Khalid
Musharef in countercoup; Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayem designated figurehead
President and Chief Martial Law Administrator.
Maj. Gen. Khalid Misharef assumes power after military coup.
Minister Khandaker Moshtaque Ahmed designated President and Chief Martial
Law Administrator after junior officers' coup in which Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is
assassinated.
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman declared President by rebel leaders when Bangladesh
secedes from Pakistan.
Jigme Singye Wangchuck crowned King.
Crown Prince Jigme Singye Wangchuck assumes throne after death of father,
Maharaja Jigme Dorji Wangchuck.
Mohammad Hosni Mubarak elected President.
Mohammad Hosni Mubarak succeeds President Anwar Sadat after Sadat's
assassination (Abu Talib, Speaker of the People's Assembly, holds nominal power
as Acting President).
Anwar Sadat reelected President; one-party state ends; fraudulent election.
Anwar Sadat elected President.
Anwar Sadat constitutionally succeeds to presidency after death of Gamal Abd al-
Nasir; one-party state.
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1984 4 November
31 October
1977 24 March
1975 26.June
1971 17 December
1967 15 January
1966 19 January
1964 2 June
Head of State Gamal Abd al-Nasir elected President following announcement of
new constitution; one-party state.
Rajiv Gandhi elected Prime Minister.
Indira Gandhi assassinated; Rajiv Gandhi designated Prime Minister in emergen-
cy cabinet meeting.
Charan Singh constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister Morarji Desai after Desai
resigned.
Morarji Desai, Janata leader, elected Prime Minister; state of emergency revoked.
Indira Gandhi assumes temporary dictatorial powers; state of emergency declared.
Indira Gandhi reelected Prime Minister.
Indira Gandhi elected Prime Minister.
Indira Gandhi constitutionally succeeds Lal Bahdur Shastri after Shastri's death.
Lal Bahdur Shastri constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru
after Nehru's death.
Ayatollah Khomeini assumes power as head of Revolutionary Council when
Muhammed Reza Shah Pelavi abdicates his throne and leaves the country.
Saddam Husayn succeeds President Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr after Bakr resigns
(Husayn had previously gained de facto power as Chairman of the Revolutionary
Command Council and vice chairman of the Bath party).
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1973 7 July Saddam Husayn becomes coleader after abortive coup attempt by Chief of the
Security Police, Nazim Kazzar (Husayn's civilian leadership role had been steadily
growing for several years preceding the Kazzar uprising).
1968 30 July President Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr ousts Col. Abd al-Razzaq al-Nayif in military
coup.
17 July Maj. Gen. Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr and Col. Abd al-Razzaq al-Nayif seize power
after military coup.
1966 16 April Maj. Gen. Abd al-Rahman Arif succeeds his brother who is killed in a plane crash.
1963 18 November President Abd al-Salam Arif ousts Prime Minister Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr and
other Ba'thists after senior officer's military coup and establishes Revolutionary
Command Council.
1958 14 July Brig. Gen. Abd al-Karim Qasim seizes power from King Faysal II after military
coup.
1984 9 September Shimon Peres becomes Prime Minister, forms a loose coalition government nearly
three weeks after close parliamentary elections give no clear winner.
1983 10 October Yitzhak Shamir sworn in as Prime Minister after Manachem Begin resigns.
1977 21 June Manachem Begin elected Prime Minister.
22 April Shimon Peres assumes power after Yitzhak Rabin resigns.
1974 10 April Yitzhak Rabin succeeds Prime Minister Golda Meir after Meir resigns.
1969 17 March Golda Meir sworn in as Prime Minister after death of Levi Eshkol.
1963 19 June Levi Eshkol becomes Prime Minister after David Ben-Gurion resigns.
1955 3 November David Ben-Gurion confirmed as Prime Minister.
Jordan
1952 11 August King Hussein assumes throne replacing his father, King Talal, who is deposed by
parliament on grounds of mental incompetence.
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Lebanon
1982 21 September
23 August
1976 8 May
1960 17 June
1964 18 August
1958 1 August
Libya
1969 1 September
Mauritania
1984 12 December
1980 4 January
1978 11 July
1966 7 August
1961 20 August
1960 28 October
Crown Prince Shaykh Jabir al-Ahmad al-Sabah assumes throne after his cousin
Shaykh Saban dies.
Shaykh Saban al-Salim al-Sabah appointed monarch after Shaykh Abdullah dies.
Independence; Shaykh Abdullah al-Salim al-Sabah assumes power as ruling
monarch (Amir).
Amin Gemayel elected President by National Assembly after Bashir Gemayel
assassinated.
Bashir Gemayel elected President by National Assembly.
Ilyas Sarkis elected President by National Assembly.
Sulayman Franjiyah elected President by National Assembly.
Charles Hilu elected President by National Assembly.
Gen. Fuad Shibab elected President by National Assembly.
Col. Muammar Qadhafi assumes power as head of a 12-member Revolutionary
Command Council after junior officers' coup deposes King Idris I.
Col. Maaouiya Ould Sid Ahmed Taya assumes power after coup.
Lt. Col. Mustapha Ould Salek assumes power after coup; names Lt. Col.
Mohammed Mahmound Ould Loly President in 1979.
Moktar Ould Dadah reelected President; fraudulent election.
Moktar Ould Dadah elected President; fraudulent election.
Independence; Moktar Ould Dadah previously elected Prime Minister; fraudulent
election.
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Morocco
1961 3 March
1956 2 March
Nepal
1973 31 January
1978 17 July
1977 12 October
1974 13 June
1967 5 November
1962 29 September
King Hassan II assumes throne after the death of his father King Mohamed V.
Independence; France and Spain relinquish sovereignty to King Mohamed V.
Prince Birendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev assumes throne after death of his father,
King Mahendra.
Crown Prince Mahendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev assumes throne after death of his
father, King Tribhuvan Bir Bikram Shah Dev.
Col. Ali Abdallah Salih elected President by Assembly after Ahmad Husayn al-
Ghashmi assassinated.
Lt. Col. Ahmad Husayn al-Ghashmi assumes power as head of three-man
Presidential Council after Col. Ibrahim al-Hamdi assassinated.
Lt. Col. Ibrahim al-Hamdi assumes power as head of seven-man Military
Command Council after military coup.
Civilian Abd al-Rahmin al-Iryani assumes power as head of three-man Presiden-
tial Council after military coup.
Col. Abdallah Sallal assumes power after military coup.
Prince Saifal Islam al-Badr designated Imam and Prime Minister by his father,
Imam Saifal Islam Ahmad al-Badr.
Qaboos bin Said ousts his father, Sultan Said bin Taimur Al Bin Said, in civilian
coup.
Gen. Zia-ul-Haq becomes President as martial law ends; Mohammed Khan Junejo
designated Prime Minister.
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1971 20 December
1969 25 March
1965 2 January
1960 14 February
1972 22 February
1971 3 September
Saudi Arabia
1982 13 June
1975 25 March
1964 28 March
Gen. Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq assumes power as Chief Martial Law Administrator
after Army coup.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto designated Prime Minsiter under new constitution.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto designated President and Chief Martial Law Administrator
by military leaders after resignation of Yahya Khan.
Gen. Agha Mohammed Yahya Khan assumes power as Chief Martial Law
Administrator after resignation of President Ayub Khan.
President Ayub Khan reelected President; fraudulent election (constitutional
government based on indirect election had been formally reinstated in June 1962).
Prime Minister Mohammed Ayub Khan elected President; fraudulent election.
Field Marshal Mohammed Ayub Khan assumes power as Chief Martial Law
Administrator after coup against Iskander Mirza.
Maj. Gen. Iskander Mirza constitutionally succeeds Governor General Ghulam
Mohammed after Mohammed requests a two-month leave of absence for health
reasons.
Prime Minister Shaykh Khalifa bin Hamad Al Thani assumes power as Amir
following coup approved by the royal family.
Independence; Shaykh Hamad bin Ali bin Abdallah Al Thani inherits supreme
power as Amir.
Crown Prince Fahd bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud assumes throne after his half
brother, King Khalid, dies.
Crown Prince Khalid bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud assumes throne after his half
brother, King Faysal, assassinated.
Crown Prince Faysal bin Abd al-Aziz assumes power after his brother King Saud
abdicates.
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Confidential
Sri Lanka
Prime Minister Haydar Abu Bakr al-Attas named President after Ali Nasir
Muhammed al-Hasani is overthrown by the extreme faction of the Yemeni
Socialist Party.
Prime Minister Ali Nasir Muhammad al-Hasani constitutionally succeeds Presi-
dent Abd al-Fattah Ismail after Ismail resigns.
Abd al-Fattah Ismail elected President of Supreme People's Council; Marxist-
Leninist state declared in mid-October 1978.
Prime Minister Ali Nasir Muhammad al-Hasani designated President by Supreme
People's Council after Salim Rubayi Ali is executed during coup led by rival
faction of the ruling National Liberation Front.
Salim Ali assumes power as Chairman of five-member Presidential Council after
coup (led by the Supreme General Command of the National Liberation Front).
Independence; Qahtan al-Shabi designated President by National Liberation
Front.
1982
20 October
Junius R. Jayewardene reelected President.
1978
5 February
Prime Minister Junius R. Jayewardene elected President when government
1977
23 July
changed to presidential system.
Junius R. Jayewardene elected Prime Minister.
1970
27 May
Sirimavo Bandaranaike elected Prime Minister.
1965
22 March
Dudley Senanayakje elected Prime Minister.
1960
20 July
Sirimavo Bandaranaike elected Prime Minister.
1959
26 September
Wijeyananda Dehanayake becomes Prime Minister after assassination of Solomon
Bandaranaike.
Solomon W. R. D. Bandaranaike elected Prime Minister.
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Sudan
1986
6 March
Sadiq Siddiq al-Mahdi elected Prime Minister by Constituent Assembly.
1985
6 April
Transitional Military Council led by Gen. Suwar El Dahab assumes power after
1977
20 April
senior officers' coup.
Gaafar Nimeiri reelected President; one-party state.
1971
12 October
Gaafar Nimeiri elected President; one-party state declared.
1969
25 May
Col. Gaafar Nimeiri assumes power after military coup.
1965
8 July
Ismail al-Azhari elected President of Supreme Council by parliament.
1964
15 November
Five-man Council of Sovereignty (civilian) assumes power after resignation of Gen.
1956
5 July
Ibrahim Abboud.
Gen. Ibrahim Abboud assumes power after Army coup.
Abdallah Khalil succeeds Prime Minister Ismail al-Azhari after Azhari resigns.
Syria
1978
1 January
8 February
Independence; civilian Ismail al-Azhari designated Prime Minister by five-
member Supreme Council.
Hafiz al-Assad reelected President; fraudulent election.
1971
12 March
Hafiz al-Assad formally elected President; fraudulent election.
1970
18 November
Lt. Gen. Hafiz al-Assad assumes power after military coup.
1966
27 February
Nur al-Din al-Atassi designated President after military coup led by Maj. Gen.
v
Salah al-Jadid.
Gen. Amin al-Hafiz succeeds Lt. Gen. Luwai Atassi as Chairman of the
Revolutionary Council after Atassi resigns.
Col. Luwai Atassi assumes power as Chairman of the Revolutionary Council after
military coup.
Deposed former President Nazim al-Qudsi released from Army custody and
reinstated as President after rebellion led by Col. Luwai Atassi.
28 March
Gen. Abd al-Karim Nahlawi assumes power after coup led by Nahlawi and Maj.
Gen. Abd al-Karim Zahreddin.
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1961 14 December
20 November
29 September
1958 22 February
1955 6 September
Tunisia
1974 2 November
1969 2 November
1964 8 November
1959 8 November
1956 8 April
21 March
United Arab Emirates
1981 2 December
1976 2 December
1971 2 December
Dr. Nazim al-Qudsi elected President by National Assembly following national
elections.
Izzat al-Nus designated head of 10-man transitional cabinet by military high
command.
Dr. Ma'mun al-Kuzbari designated Prime Minister after Syria secedes from the
United Arab Republic following military coup led by Lt. Col. Abd al-Karim
Nahlawi.
Gamal Abd al-Nasir designated President after vote to unite Syria and Egypt in
the United Arab Republic; one- party state.
Shurki al-Quwatli elected civilian President by Syrian parliament after resignation
of Hashim Atassi.
Habib Bourguiba elected President for Life.
Habib Bourguiba reelected President.
Habib Bourguiba reelected President.
Habib Bourguiba reelected President.
Habib Bourguiba elected President by National Assembly; one-party state.
Independence; Premier Tahan ben Ammar and Habib Bourguiba, president of
Neodestour Party, share power; one-party state carries over from independence.
Shaykh Zayid bin Sultan Al Nuhayyan reelected President by Supreme Council.
Shaykh Zayid bin Sultan Al Nuhayyan reelected President by Supreme Council.
Shaykh Zayid bin Sultan Al Nuhayyan elected President by Supreme Council
made up of six original Amirs.
Note: Leadership change can involve both a change in
the leadership and in the regime type, but all regime
changes do not necessarily involve a change in leader-
ship.
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Although no particular regime type has been dominant in East Asia-
which includes 14 countries-civilian authoritarian governments account
for the largest number of regimes in the region over the last three decades
(figure 25). Democratic regimes are also well represented, and the number
of Marxist-Leninist regimes has increased significantly since the
mid-1970s.
Regime Types Civilian authoritarian regimes represent almost 30 percent of all regimes in
the region (figure 26). The number of military regimes peaked in the mid-
to-late 1960s, but since then has steadily declined to two in the early 1980s.
As of June 1986, Marxist-Leninist regimes represented more than one-
third of all regimes in the region, and democratic regimes just over
one-fifth.
Before 1975, the only Marxist-Leninist regimes were North Korea and
North Vietnam. By 1977, South Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia had
become Marxist, replacing authoritarian governments.
After declining in the latter part of the 1950s, the number of democratic
regimes in East Asia remained steady over the last three decades.
Frequency of Changes The frequency of regime change in East Asia has shown a general pattern
of decline, with a high of 13 regime changes recorded from 1961 to 1965
and a low of two from 1981 to 1985. The frequency of leadership change
has varied more widely, declining from 20 in the late 1970s to eight in the
early 1980s (figure 27).
Mechamisms of Half of all regime changes in East Asia have resulted from coups or
Regime Changes government fiat; constitutional transitions account for only one-third of all
regime changes. Over the past decade, however, constitutional change was
the primary mechanism of regime change (figure 28).
Durability of Regimes Civilian authoritarian regimes generally have proved to be durable in East
Asia, with more than 20 percent lasting for 10 years or more (figures 29
and 30). Conversely, military regimes, which have constituted nearly 30
percent of all East Asian regimes during the past 30 years, have been
highly unstable. Only in Burma and Thailand have military regimes
remained in power for more than 10 years.
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Democratic regimes have been relatively durable, with Malaysia, Papua
New Guinea, and the Philippines-in earlier years-experiencing demo-
cratic rule for 10 or more years. On the other hand, democratic rule has
been short lived in some countries-lasting less than two years, for
example, in South Korea and Thailand. The Marxist-Leninist regimes
have proved exceptionally stable. The North Korean and Vietnamese
regimes have been in power for more than 25 years, and the Marxist
regimes in Laos and Cambodia have been in power for 10 years or more.
Confidential 66
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Figure 25
East Asia: Regime Types in Power as of 31 June 1986
NORTH
KOREA
l
SOUTH
KOREA
O Democratic
O Military authoritarian
O Civilian authoritarian/one party
O Marxist-Leninist
1955
1965
1975
Burma
0
0
0
Cambodia (Kampuchea)
O
0
0
Indonesia
0
0
0
Laos
0
O.
0
Malaysia
0
0
North Korea
0
0
0
North Vietnam
0
0
0
Papua New Guinea
0
Philippines
0
0
0
Singapore
O
O
South Korea
0
0
0
South Vietnam
0
0
0
Taiwan
Ci
O
0
Thailand
0
0
0
310534 11 ~66 25X1
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Figure 26 Figure 27
East Asia: Major Regime Types East Asia: Frequency of Regime and
by Year, 1955-85 Leadership Changes, 1956-85
Democratic
Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian/one party
Marxist-Leninist
Regime changes
Leadership changes
Indicates the type of regime in power for the longest period
in a given year. Countries are included at independence.
25X1
25X1
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Figure 28 Figure 29
East Asia: Regime Change Process, 1956-85 East Asia: Regime Duration by Type, 1956-85
El Democratic
Coup by general
officer
Coup by lower
grade officer
1956-60
Total: 9
Government fiat
Independence
Total: 13
2
I 2 5
2
1966-70
Total: 7
1976-80
Total: 7
1971-75
Total: 8
1981-85
Total: 2
n n nn
Military Authoritarian Civilian Authoritarian/
One Party
nnnfl 11 A n
0 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-oNN~ -I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10'^
6 _ t
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Figure 30
East Asia: Leadership and Regime Change, 1955-86
Democratic
Military authoritarian
Civilian authoritarian
Marxist-Leninist
A Leadership change
Malaysia
North Korea
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
North Vietnam
South Vietnam
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Leadership Change in East Asia, 1955-86
Burma
1981 9 November Vice President San Yu, former Army chief who had been second in command, suc-
ceeds President Ne Win after Ne Win resigns.
1978 15 January Ne Win reelected President; one-party state.
1974 3 March Ne Win assumes title of President after ruling Revolutionary Council dissolved;
one-party state declared.
1962 2 March Gen. Ne Win assumes power after military coup.
1960 5 April U Nu elected Prime Minister.
1958 30 October Gen. Ne Win designated head of caretaker government by Prime Minister U Nu,
after popular discontent forces U Nu resignation.
U Ba Sue succeeds Prime Minister U Nu (then known as Thakin Nu) after U Nu
resigns.
Cambodia
1979 8 January Heng Samrin installed in power by Vietnam following defeat of Kampuchean
forces by invading Vietnamese Army; Marxist-Leninist regime.
1975 17 April Pol Pot assumes power as Prime Minister after insurgency; Marxist-Leninist
regime.
1970 18 March Gen. Lon Nol assumes power from King Norodom Sinanouk after coup.
Indonesia
1983 10 March Gen. Suharto reelected President.
1973 22 March Gen. Suharto reelected President; fraudulent election.
1968 27 March Gen. Suharto elected President; fraudulent election.
1967 12 March Gen. Suharto designated Acting President by the Indonesian People's Provisional
Consultative Congress.
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Confidential
1959 6 July
1965 18 July
1964 19 April
1962 23 June
9 August
24 April
Malaysia
1986 3 August
1982 August
1981 16 July
1978 8 July
Gen. Suharto assumes power after military takeover by senior officers following an
abortive Communist-led coup in the fall of 1965.
President Sukarno declares Indonesia a "guided democracy," abolishes political
parties, and assumes dictatorial powers after serving for 10 years as a constitution-
al President.
Kaysone Phomvihan, Secretary General of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party,
designated Prime Minister by the Supreme People's Council after Prince Souvan-
na Phouma is deposed by Communist-led insurgency; Marxist-Leninist regime.
Prince Souvanna Phouma elected Prime Minister following international pressure
to reinstate neutralist government.
Brig. Gen. Siho Lanpoutacoul and Brig. Gen. Kouprasith Abhay assume power
after coup; martial law declared.
Prince Souvanna Phouma designated Prime Minister in tripartite power-sharing
arrangement with Prince Boun Oum and Prince Souphanouvong after internation-
al diplomatic intervention.
Prince Boun Oum Na Campassak assumes power after coup led by Gen. Phoumi
Nosavan.
Prince Souvanna Phouma reinstated by military after coup led by Cpt. Kong Le.
Gen. Phoumi Nosavan elected Prime Minister by National Assembly; fraudulent
election.
Gen. Phoumi Nosavan assumes power as head of caretaker government after he
forces Premier Phoui Sananikoni to resign.
Mahathir bin Mohammed reelected Prime Minister.
Mahathir bin Mohammed elected Prime Minister.
Mahathir bin Mohammed constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister Hussein Onn
after Onn resigns.
Hussein Onn elected Prime Minister.
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1976 16 January
1970 22 September
1969 14 May
1963 6 September
North Korea
1948 9 September
Papua New Guinea
1985 11 November
1982 2 August
1977 9 August
1975 16 September
Philippines
1986 25 February
Deputy Prime Minister Hussein Onn constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister
Abdul Razuk after Razuk dies.
Abdul Razuk constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister Tunku Abdul Rahman
after Rahman retires.
Prime Minister Tunku Abdul Rahman suspends the constitution following election
defeat; emergency rule declared.
Creation of Malaysia; Tunku Abdul Rahman-previously elected-continues as
Prime Minister.
Kim Il Song elected President by Supreme People's Assembly under new
constitution; Kim's unchallenged authority confirmed.
Kim Il Song, General Secretary of the Korean Worker's Party (Communist Party),
assumes power as Head of State after establishment of Democratic People's
Republic of Korea.
Paias Wingti elected Prime Minister.
Michael Somare constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister Julius Chan after Chan
resigns.
Julius Chan constitutionally succeeds Prime Minister Michael Somare after
Somare government receives no-confidence vote.
Independence; Chief Minister Michael Somare elected Prime Minister.
Corazon Aquino becomes President when Ferdinand Marcos is forced to leave the
country after declaring himself the winner of the presidential election; military
rebellion and civilian demonstrations follow the fraudulent election.
Ferdinand Marcos reelected; fraudulent election.
President Marcos imposes martial law and suspends the constitution.
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Confidential
1969 11 November
1965 9 November
1961 14 November
1957 18 March
Singapore
1965 9 August
South Korea
1981 25 February
1980 27 August
1971 27 April
1967 3 May
1963 15 October
1961 16 May
1960 12 August
26 April
15 March
1956 5 May
Ferdinand Marcos reelected President.
Ferdinand Marcos elected President.
Diosdado Macapagal elected President.
Vice President and Foreign Minister Carlos P. Garcia constitutionally succeeds
President Ramon Magsaysay after Magsaysay dies in plane crash.
Independence; Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew continues in office (first elected
Prime Minister following full independence in 1963).
Chun Doo Hwan reelected President; fraudulent election.
Maj. Gen. Chun Doo Hwan elected President by legislature after resignation of
Choi Kyu Hah; fraudulent election.
Maj. Gen. Chun Doo Hwan assumes power as head of four-member military
junta.
Prime Minister Choi Kuy Hah constitutionally succeeds President Park Chung
Hee as Acting President after Park assassinated.
Park Chung Hee reelected President; fraudulent election.
Park Chung Hee reelected President; fraudulent election.
Park Chung Hee reelected President; fraudulent election.
Maj. Gen. Park Chung Hee assumes power after coup.
Yun Po Sun elected President by parliament; Chang Myon named head of
government under new cabinet system.
Hun Chung succeeds President Syngman Rhee after popular pressure forces Rhee
to resign.
Syngman Rhee reelected President; fraudulent election.
Syngman Rhee reelected President (first elected in 1948); fraudulent election.
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Taiwan
1978 21 March
1975 6 April
Premier Chiang Ching-kuo elected President; fraudulent election.
Premier Chiang Ching-kuo assumes power after his father, Chang Kai-shek, dies
(Vice President Yen Chia-kan holds only nominal power as Chiang's constitutional
successor).
Thailand
1986
5 August
1980
3 March
Gen. Prem. Tinsulanon designated Prime Minister by Revolutionary Council after
forced resignation of Gen. Kriangsak Chamanan.
1977
11 November
Gen. Kriangsak Chamanan, Commander of the Armed Forces, designated Prime
Minister by 23-member Revolutionary Council.
20 October
Adm. Sa-ngat Chaloyu heads junta after coup.
1976
6 October
Adm. Sa-ngat Chaloyu heads Administrative Reform Council after coup deposes
Seni Pramot; Thanin Kraiwichian designated Prime Minister.
4 April
Seni Pramot elected Prime Minister.
1975
14 March
Kikrit Pramot succeeds Prime Minister Seni Pramot.
26 January
Seni Pramot elected Prime Minister.
1973
14 October
Acting Premier Sanya Thammasal appointed Prime Minister by King after fall of
Thanom government following student unrest.
1971
17 November
Prime Minister Thanom Kittikachorn suspends the constitution.
1969
10 February
Thanom Kittikachorn elected Prime Minister.
1963
9 December
Field Marshal Thanom Kittikachorn designated Prime Minister by military
leadership after death of Sarit Thanarat.
oses Plaek Phibunsongkhram; martial law
rit Thanarat de
h
l S
Fi
ld M
p
ars
a
a
e
declared.
Vietnam, Socialist Republic
North and South Vietnam reunited; Le Duan designated Communist Party
Chairman by Party Congress; Marxist-Leninist regime.
1969 24 September Le Duan succeeds Ho Chi Minh as General Secretary after Ho dies, Marxist-
Leninist regime.
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1954 21 January
Vietnam, South
1976 2 July
1975 28 April
22 April
1971 3 October
1967 3 September
1965 21 February
27 January
9 January
1964 26 August
12 August
30 January
1961 19 October
1956 4 March
1955 26 October
Ho Chi Minh, General Secretary of the Worker's Party of Vietnam (Communist
Party), remains in power when 1954 Geneva Conference agreement results in
division of Indochina into North and South Vietnam; Marxist-Leninist regime.
North and South Vietnam reunited; Le Duan designated Communist Party
Chairman by Party Congress; Marxist-Leninist regime.
Doung Van Minh succeeds President Tran Van Huong after Tran resigns.
Vice President Tran Van Huong succeeds President Nguyen Van Thieu after
Thieu resigns.
President Nguyen Van Thieu reelected.
Brig. Gen. Nguyen Van Thieu elected President.
Gen. Nguyen Van Thieu designated Secretary General by 25-member Armed
Forces Council after unanimous vote to oust Gen. Nguyen Khanh.
Lt. Gen. Nguyen Khanh assumes power after coup against Prime Minister Tran
Van Huong.
Tran Van Huong designated Prime Minister after negotiations between Vietnam-
ese leaders and US officials.
Military triumvirate (Generals Khanh, Minh, and Khiem) assumes power after
Military Revolutionary Council revokes the new constitution.
Lt. Gen. Nguyen Khanh announces a "reorganization" by Military Revolutionary
Council and formally assumes title as President.
Lt. Gen. Nguyen Khanh assumes power after coup; Gen. Duong Van Minh
remains figurehead President.
Gen. Duong Van Minh assumes power after military coup in which Ngo Dinh
Diem assassinated.
Ngo Dinh Diem reelected President; fraudulent election.
Ngo Dinh Diem elected President; fraudulent election.
Ngo Dinh Diem assumes power after civil war in which forces loyal to Emperor
Bao Dai are defeated.
Note: Leadership change can involve both a change in
the leadership and in the regime type, but all regime
changes do not necessarily involve a change in leader-
ship.
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 Third World: Regime Types in Power as of 31 June 1986a
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Military authoritarian = Civilian authoritarian/one party
d
LEBANON
ISRAELI
IGANOA
I':( KENYA
RWANDA
BURUNDI ` f
TANZANIA
NuLAwI~
MO;AMBIOUE
E ll/
-,'SOMALIA
BANGLAD
INDIA -L
a Countries with populations
greater than 1 million
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
708329 (545038) 11?'
2
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Confidential
Confidential
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