INTERNATIONALIZATION OF THE PETROLEUM EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY

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CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6
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S
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December 22, 2016
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March 16, 2011
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1
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July 1, 1985
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Directorate of Intelligence Internationalization of the Petroleum Equipment Industry GI 85-10164 July 1985 Copy . Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 a =i Intelligence ~' \ Directorate of 25X1 Internationalization of the Petroleum Equipment Industry This paper was prepared by Office of Global Issues with technical assistance from Office of Soviet Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Strategic Resources Division, OGI, Secret GI 85-10164 July 1985 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Internationalization of the Petroleum Equipment Industry Summary US dominance of the worldwide petroleum equipment industry has eroded Information available in the past 10 years largely because of the massive worldwide development as of 10 May 1985 of petroleum resources following the oil price rises of the early 1970s. was used in this report. Foreign governments and companies were quick to take advantage of this boom and the broad availability of US equipment and technology to build domestic petroleum equipment industries. Today, in a weak oil market and period of major equipment industry retrenchment, virtually all petroleum equipment can be purchased outside the United States from either foreign companies or US subsidiaries in a highly competitive marketplace. Many foreign companies have become effective competitors because of national policies that protect and nurture domestic industries, attractive financing, lower manufacturing costs, the strength of the dollar, and special political relationships with potential buyers. ~ US companies and their foreign subsidiaries still retain their nearly com- plete worldwide market and technology dominance in some specialized but important sectors of the petroleum equipment industry that either embody exceptionally advanced technologies or are too small and capital intensive for foreign competitors to enter. These sectors include specialized geophysi- cal equipment, advanced computers, high-pressure wellhead equipment, downhole completion gear, high-capacity electric submersible pumps, and gas lift valves. Even in most of these equipment sectors, foreign competition is present, but manufacturing capacity or field experience is limited. Among the industry sectors, where technology is less critical, US manufacturers continue to be the primary force in onshore drilling and production markets, although foreign competition is on the rise. The foreign petroleum industry generally has taken established US petroleum technology and adapted or improved on it as needed, especially offshore. The outlook for continued weakness in the world oil market during the rest of this decade is likely to lead to stronger foreign competition in the petroleum equipment industry, especially from government-supported Asian and West European companies able to offer attractive financing. New market opportunities will focus attention on deeper offshore and marginal field development, Arctic development, and, to a lesser extent, sales to Communist countries. Although more than half of all petroleum equipment expenditures in the non-Communist world over the next five years will continue to be spent in the United States-primarily onshore-worldwide offshore activities are playing an increasingly important role in the petro- leum equipment market. We expect offshore construction activities will be iii Secret GI 85-10164 July 1985 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 focused in the established North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico regions over the rest of the 1980s, with smaller programs in Canada, South America, and the Far East. Ambitious energy goals in both the USSR and China could mean a major expansion of Western business opportunities, although these national markets will remain a small part of the global petroleum equipment market well into the I 990s. Increasing competitiveness in the international petroleum equipment in- dustry and further weakening of US domination is likely to continue into the 1990s. In particular, we believe the vast lower end of the technology range of the world petroleum equipment, including the US market, increasingly will be penetrated by foreign engineering and construction firms and manufac- turers. High-technology and specialized equipment requirements for particularly demanding conditions will still be dominated by US companies and their foreign subsidiaries, although competition will continue to increase from companies in Western Europe and Japan. The broad international availability of petroleum equipment technology challenges the effectiveness of unilateral export and potentially COCOM-controls on petroleum equipment. The knowledge to design and produce the vast majority of petroleum equipment is widespread, and enforcement of unilateral controls permits foreign companies to expand their market share. Countries seeking equipment covered by US unilateral export licensing controls can in most cases buy comparable equipment from foreign suppliers in Western Europe, Japan, and increasingly from suppliers in newly industrialized countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, Singa- pore, and South Korea, when they can not obtain it indirectly from the Even the effectiveness of COCOM controls on selected dual military and industrial use technologies embodied in some petroleum equipment may become ineffective as petroleum technology spreads. Advanced non- COCOM countries, such as Sweden and Finland, already produce some equipment controlled by COCOM. Increasing sophistication in electronics manufacturing in the newly industrialized countries or acquisition of sophisticated components from developed countries-could give these coun- tries the capability to produce COCOM-controlled petroleum equipment. Efforts to expand controls of exports on military-related petroleum technol- ogy from COCOM to non-COCOM countries could be extremely difficult because of trade pressures. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6`5X1 Secret Despite the likely adverse trade consequences for the United States, the increased equipment manufacturing capacity worldwide-particularly in the oil production and transmission sectors-would permit quick expansion of production to replace damaged equipment if a major supply source is disrupted in the near future. The heightened competitiveness of the industry has led to reduced oil exploration and development investment costs, provid- ing an incentive for more exploration and development, and an opportunity to reduce reliance on vulnerable oil sources, such as the Persian Gulf. The now global competition in petroleum equipment markets is also a strong inducement for innovation in petroleum equipment products and manufac- turing techniques that is likely to be important in advancing petroleum production and reserves in the 1990s when most forecasters next anticipate a tight oil market. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Summary Introduction The Internationalization Process The Industrialized Countries The Developing Countries Foreign Availability Geophysical Equipment Drilling Equipment Wellhead Equipment Completion and Lift Equipment Offshore Equipment 8 Transmission and Control Equipment 10 Engineering and Project Management Services 11 12 New Market Factors Market Trends and Technology Development 15 The Offshore Industry 16 The Onshore Industry 17 The USSR and China-The Special Cases 19 Outlook and Implications 21 Appendixes A. The Petroleum Equipment Industries of Key Foreign Countries 23 B. Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and T echnology, 29 as of 1985 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Internationalization of the Petroleum Equipment Industry US companies traditionally have dominated the worldwide petroleum equipment industry, particularly in drilling, production, and refining and in state-of- the-art aspects of other industry sectors. This domi- nance evolved over several decades, beginning with the early growth of the domestic US oil industry- first onshore and later offshore. Even today, the United States accounts for approximately 80 percent of all wells drilled in the non-Communist world each year. Accustomed to dealing with US domestic equip- ment suppliers and confident in their products, major US oil companies continued their relationships with US equipment manufacturers or their foreign subsid- iaries as they expanded their operations abroad. Until the 1970s foreign manufacturers were left with only a marginal share of the world drilling and production equipment markets and followed the lead of US technology in other areas such as exploration and transmission equipment. During the last decade, the market dominance of US companies in many equipment categories has eroded. The massive development of petroleum resources worldwide following the price hikes of the 1970s created economic and political incentives leading to a rapid internationalization of the petroleum equipment supply business. Today, virtually all oil equipment can be purchased abroad in a highly competitive equip- ment marketplace, a change that may have important implications for US trade policies and international competitiveness well into the 1990s. Growing oil demand and rising oil prices in the 1970s caused an explosion of worldwide exploration and development activity-the greatest boom in the petro- leum equipment business ever. Non-Communist world investment in all phases of the petroleum industry outside the United States soared from about $17 billion in 1972 to about $86 billion in 1982. During the same period, US investment rose from $10 billion to almost $70 billion, according to a major financial institution. With US-controlled manufacturing capac- ity and technology stretched to its limits, major opportunities opened up for foreign manufacturers in both the advanced and newly industrialized countries. Foreign governments and companies quickly took advantage of this business boom and the broader availability of US equipment and technology to nur- ture their domestic petroleum equipment industries. One of the most important forces in the international- ization process was the active role played by the governments of new oil-producing countries in requir- ing domestic participation in the oil industry through joint ventures, local content laws, and employment of host-country nationals. The primary goal of these policies was to develop an indigenous petroleum equipment industry that would: ? Acquire foreign-primarily US-capital and technology. ? Create local jobs in an expanding industrial sector. ? Reduce hard currency expenditures. ? Develop new export markets. ? Enhance national pride and prestige. Aside from meeting government requirements, US companies were encouraged to establish foreign oper- ations in new producing areas to take advantage of lower manufacturing costs, trade and tax advantages, and as a means of avoiding US export and trade restrictions. US equipment and engineering compa- nies were quick to respond to these incentives in light of the potential economic gains. US technical and manufacturing know-how spread to foreign companies through a combination of licensing agreements, joint ventures, and foreign manufacturing or assembly operations. Today, major US equipment suppliers have more than 200 manufacturing facilities abroad, primarily in the industrialized world. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Development of North Sea petroleum resources in the 1970s gave particular impetus to the transfer and assimilation of the most advanced US petroleum equipment and manufacturing technology. The scope of operations in Western Europe combined with the technical requirements associated with producing oil in the harsh North Sea environment quickly led to the development of a competitive European petroleum equipment industry. Although much of the technology originated in the United States-particularly from the experience of offshore development and produc- tion in the Gulf of Mexico-European companies thoroughly integrated US technology into their own manufacturing operations. The Industrialized Countries The United Kingdom and Norwa_v the two major producing countries in the North Sea-both devel- oped extensive offshore equipment supply industries during the I 970s (appendix A). The British consistent- ly encouraged multinationals to establish manufactur- ing facilities in the United Kingdom to supply the North Sea offshore business. Until recently, the Brit- ish were more concerned with developing their hydro- carbon resources with the best available technology and creating employment in Britain than developing indigenous UK companies and UK technology. As a result, foreign companies-primarily US-operating in the United Kingdom make up a large segment of the British offshore supply industry. Oslo, on the other hand, has seen less need for rapid oil develop- ment and has concentrated on developing a competi- tive indigenous oil supply industry. As a result, Nor- way has emphasized the development of domestic capabilities through the commitment of foreign re- search and development (R&D) funds to Norwegian Other European governments have pushed develop- ment of indigenous equipment supply industries main- ly for export. For more than 20 years, France has strongly supported an indigenous oil equipment indus- try believing that a competitive French industry would improve access to foreign oil resources and the security of its supply. According to an industry trade publication, the French have provided more incentive and financial support for the development of offshore technology than any other government. French ex- ports of oil and gas equipment and services-totaling $6.6 billion in 1983-rank second worldwide after the United States and have been one of France's leading foreign exchange earners for several years. State interests played a prominent role in the development of the petroleum industry in Italy and the promotion of Italian companies to among the technological leaders in the world petroleum equipment industry. Much of Italy's technical expertise arises from large government R&D budgets that led to such projects as the Transmed gas pipeline from Algeria and frontier drilling activities in deep water. Other European countries including West Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, and Finland also de- veloped extensive petroleum equipment industries during the industry boom of the 1970s. West European multinational oil companies, such as Royal-Dutch Shell, British Petroleum, AGIP, Total, and Elf, have been instrumental in assisting the development of the European petroleum equipment industry. In particular, Elf and Total worked closely with French equipment companies to develop oil discoveries in the North Sea, West Africa, and other parts of the globe. Development of the Finnish indus- try, in contrast, was helped by its close trading relationship with the Soviet Union. Expert Finnish shipbuilding capabilities, augmented by US drilling equipment and technology, has increasingly been used by the Soviets in their work in the Arctic. Japan's dependence on petroleum imports led Tokyo to attach great importance to promoting foreign pro- duction of crude oil by Japanese companies. The formation of the Japan National Oil Corporation (JNOC) in 1967 to promote Japan's exploration and development programs helped stimulate development of the petroleum equipment business in Japan. The strongest force behind the growth of the Japanese equipment industry, however, has been the Japanese multinational companies, such as Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Hitachi Zosen, and Japanese steel companies, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Table I European Government Support to Offshore Equipment Industries Type of Policy United Kingdom France Assisting early entry of firms into the industry NEGL Substantial Slight (successful private firms) State backing for long-term major project NEG1 Substantial Increasing in recent years research and development National oil company purchasing Slight Major Major Full and fair opportunity for domestic supplier Major NA Major Open door to foreign firms Major Strong restrictions Controlled joint ventures Selective promotion of major firms Nast, (except for platform Major Significant construction yards) such as Nippon Steel, Nippon Kokan KK, and Kawa- saki. Recognizing business opportunities in the petro- leum construction industry during the 1970s, these companies began to develop the expertise and experi- ence to compete globally with US suppliers, particu- larly in the offshore construction business. In Canada, many equipment supply companies are affiliates or subsidiaries of US corporations that have serviced the onshore Western Canadian market for many years. Canadian companies also began develop- ing expertise in manufacturing equipment for Arctic oil production as exploration and development in northern Canada grew. The Developing Countries Government action in many less developed, oil- producing countries has led to the creation of domes- tic equipment industries geared primarily to serving local markets. Mexico, which expropriated its petro- leum industry from foreign operators a half century ago, is archetypical of this group. Technology licens- ing from US companies by equipment manufacturers in Mexico has been common for many years, and, increasingly driven by budgetary constraints as well, Mexico meets most of its domestic equipment needs except for some high-technology electronic and metal- lurgical equipment. Most major OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, also require domestic participation in lower technology oil equip- ment manufacturing that is creating domestic oil production and transmission capabilities. More recent non-OPEC oil producers-such as Brazil and India- have also promoted development of domestic petro- leum equipment industries with considerable success, although they do not yet have the range of equipment or technologies available elsewhere. For instance, 90 percent of Brazil's oil equipment purchases are from domestic suppliers, according to Embassy re- porting. Several non-oil-producing, newly industrialized coun- tries led by Singapore and South Korea have achieved a major role in the petroleum equipment export industry. Singapore has long been a manufacturing and supply center for US, European, and Japanese multinational equipment and service companies. For- eign subsidiaries and joint ventures located there provide essentially the full range of equipment needed for both onshore and offshore operations. About 450 oil equipment companies operate in Singapore, of which 70 percent are US subsidiaries, according to the US Embassy there. Indigenous Singapore compa- nies have developed the capability to design and Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret construct large offshore facilities. South Korea has emerged as a major supplier of steel-related equip- ment for the petroleum industry. Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo both have been building state- of-the-art offshore rigs, recently winning some of the largest and most technologically demanding rig build- ing construction contracts ever. For instance, Daewoo recently signed a $425 million contract with a US company to construct six deepwater, harsh environ- ment semisubmersible drilling rigs. Korea has also gained experience in offshore oil and gas drilling and, according to one industry report, plans to enter the US offshore drilling market. Today, the internationalization of the petroleum equipment business has reached almost every phase of the industry. Engineering and construction firms han- dling the development of petroleum projects receive qualified bids from all parts of the globe. Often equipment for each element of a project is from a different country and large projects have a mix of American, European, and Asian firms supplying goods and services. International joint ventures and consortiums composed of firms from different coun- tries-each contributing its particular specialities- are widespread: ? Japanese and Korean firms are constructing off- shore drilling platforms for development of deep offshore reserves and Arctic reserves. ? French, Italian, British, and Korean companies are developing Libya's offshore Bouri field. ? French, German, British, Finnish, and Canadian firms are selling advanced oil and gas equipment to the USSR. ? Ongoing Iraqi pipeline projects involve a mix of French, Italian, Japanese, and US engineering, construction, and equipment firms. ? Japanese, West German, British, French, and US companies are participating jointly in China's newly opened petroleum sector. Foreign Availability We believe US equipment manufacturers possess state-of-the-art technology for all aspects of petro- leum exploration, drilling, production, and pipelining. No other country has the breadth of technological capability and manufacturing capacity, in our judg- ment. US manufacturers, in particular, can respond rapidly and economically to requirements for special components capable of satisfying any unusual specifi- cations. Additionally, US oilfield products have estab- lished strong reputations for reliability and durability, offering foreign customers greater assurance than newer foreign equipment manufacturers that the products will be cost effective. Our analysis indicates, however, that several foreign sources now exist for the majority of equipment manufactured in the United States. Except perhaps for the most sophisticated computer hardware, prod- ucts embodying advanced microelectronics, and for highly specialized production gear involving advanced metallurgy and high-pressure elastomer seals, we believe the United States has lost its sole-source supplier status in petroleum-related equipment. Some high-technology. equipment, particularly that used in high-pressure, high-temperature corrosive oil and gas production, can be procured abroad only from US subsidiaries. We believe the reason that foreign com- petition is absent in most of these specialized petro- leum equipment categories is not a lack of technical capability but an assessment of market profitability by potential competitors. Foreign companies often can not economically undertake the expensive process of starting up production and competing with the US companies without significant government support. Nonetheless, the extent of foreign equipment avail- ability covers the gamut of applications, including geophysical exploration, drilling, production, trans- mission, control, and engineering and management services (chart and appendix B). Geophysical Equipment Some of the most sophisticated petroleum industry technology is found in geophysical exploration equip- ment. Most notably, the complex process of geophysi- cal surveys frequently uses advanced devices for acoustical, magnetic, and ultrasonic sensing, com- bined with state-of-the-art computer processing tech- nology. According to an industry estimate, the oil Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Relative Strength of Major Petroleum Equipment Manufacturing Countries 4'" State of the art competitive Developinit capahility Inferior Q No demonstrated capahilit% Geoph.sical Equipment Onshore Ot 1 shore Drilling Equipment Rip derrick (onshore) Drill hit; Will pipe Lotpina equipment Production Equipment III,h-pressure wellheads and blowout precentors Downhole well equipment Casinmt Lind tuhint-, Submersible pumps Remote control isstems Offshore Equipment Drillinsp:md production platforms Riser and motion compensation systems Dynamic positioning 51stcm h e v lift equipment Remotely operated vehicles 1ransniission Equipment Large pipelavcrs Larne-diameter pipe Gas turbines compressors Pipe inspection equipment Control and data acquisition systems Engineering and Project Management Services 305827 6-85 Cnited Canada ? France West State, German 0 0 Italy Norway Japan United Kinz?dom ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Jl:I I CL Military Applications of Petroleum Equipment Although the vast majority of petroleum equipment has no direct military application, several groups of high-technology equipment-primarily incorporating advanced electronics or metallurgy can be readily diverted to important military applications. Trade in these items with Soviet Bloc countries has been effectively controlled for the most part through COCOM restrictions adopted in the lastfew nears. At present, Sweden and Finland are believed to be the only non-COCOM countries capable of manufactur- ing some of this military-related equipment, but the situation could change as advanced petroleum tech- nology becomes more broadly dispersed. The greatest potential for diversion of Western petro- leum technology and equipment exists in the sale of state-of-the-art computer and other electronic equip- ment. Powerful computers with array processors for geophysical processing and superminicomputers used for field geophysical work and petroleum network operations control can also be directly employed in antisubmarine warfare, ballistic missilery, and tacti- cal military operations. Advanced geophysical de- vices for magnetic, acoustic, and ultrasonic sensing have similar military and naval applications. Ad- vanced satellite navigation equipment and ship mo- tion compensation and dynamic positioning systems industry is spending $2.5 billion a year to gather seismic records and another $1 billion to process and interpret them using large-array processors that tack- le repetitive calculations and do three-dimensional analysis. with the possi- ble exception of marine gravimeters, which detect anamolies over certain types of rock formations, the entire range of geophysical exploration equipment, including geophones for seismic exploration, onland gravity meters and side scan sonar is available abroad. France probably has the most sophisticated capability in petroleum geophysical exploration among foreign for offshore petroleum operations could be used by naval vessels for similar purposes. Remotely Operat- ed Vehicles (ROV), submersibles designed to work on subsea petroleum structures, have alternative naval application in mine neutralization and object search The technology embodied in corrosion-resistant pro- duction equipment and in equipment for high- pressure, high-temperature operating conditions is also applicable to conventional and nuclear weapons development, naval nuclear propulsion systems, and rocket and jet engines. To apply this technology to military purposes would require reversing the engi- neering of the equipment to understand its qualities and means of manufacture. Acquisition of advanced metallurgical manufacturing technology and equip- ment used to make petroleum gear could be diverted directly to these military applications. For instance, the metallurgy for making drill bits and tungsten- carbide inserts and high-performance turbine rotor blades have the potential to help military/defense research and development. suppliers based on the technological strength of com- panies such as Sercel, Compagnie Geophysical Gen- erale (CGG), and Thomson-CSF. Additionally, Geo- physical Company (GECO) of Norway and Prakla- Seismos of West Germany have growing or competitive capabilities in geophysical surveying, oceanographic research, and three-dimensional seis- mic profiling. Although the market for array processor-equipped superminicomputers and ad- vanced computer software for geophysical analysis is Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret drilling equipment, and Norway has targeted logging technology and equipment for research and foreign survey companies typically modify the acquired US software for use on their computers and make it part of their proprietary service package. Almost all foreign equipment will produce adequate results and is usually less expensive and more readily available, although US geophysical equipment gener- ally meets higher technical standards for sensing and data processing than foreign equipment. Drilling Equipment Foreign availability of most drilling equipment has increased dramatically in the last 10 years. Virtually all standard drilling equipment-including the major elements of the drill rig, such as the derrick, draw- works, drillstring, kellies, drill collar, stabilizers, and tool joints-is now available from numerous manufacturers throughout the world. Although US manufacturers controlled about 95 percent of the foreign market 10 years ago, foreign manufacturers now supply about half of foreign drilling equipment, As a result of their North Sea experience, French, Italian, and West German companies now have sophisticated drilling equipment technology and man- ufacturing capabilities, and Norwegian companies, supported by the government, are committed to be- coming leaders in international drilling technology, In each of these coun- tries, national oil companies now rely primarily on domestic manufacturers for drilling equipment. Out- side of Western Europe, Canadian companies have significant onshore drilling experience, and the Japa- nese have also begun to manufacture drilling equip- ment using US licenses. Foreign companies are also making great strides in the use of electronics to improve drilling efficiency. Important advancements in wire line logging tools include development of multiple downhole sensors that transmit data to the surface and wellside comput- ers. Measurement-while-drilling (MWD) systems, which monitor the direction of drilling, have advanced rapidly as have vertical seismic profiling (VSP), which allows the operator to see ahead of the drill bit. Besides US companies, French firms, such as Schlum- berger and SMF International, produce electronic development. emerged as a leader in the PCD bit field. Diamond and carbide drill bits used in exploratory and production drilling worldwide are readily avail- able from a large number of foreign manufacturers and US-licensed companies abroad. Although foreign drill bits probably are inferior in metallurgical quali- ty, foreign manufactured products of acceptable quality are being purchased primarily because of price and financing advantages offered by non-US suppliers. Growing foreign com- petitors to US firms include Sandvik of Sweden and Tsukamoto Seike of Japan. Developing countries, such as India and Pakistan, are also starting to produce equipment for domestic use. An important advance in bit technology has been the development of polycrystalline diamond (PCD) bits that lower drilling costs in many applications. Although developed in the United States, Sandvik of Sweden, the world's largest maker of cemented carbide and specialty tools, has Wellhead Equipment Onshore and offshore wellhead equipment-Christ- mas trees, blowout preventors (BOPs) and associated control svstems-are now produced by many manu- facturers throughout the world, although the non- Communist world market is dominated by firms with access to US technology. The key technical difference among manufacturers is their ability to produce equipment able to withstand extremely high- pressure 10,000 to 15,000 psi-environments. US firms and their foreign subsidiaries control the small, but growing high- pressure wellhead market, but a number of foreign countries, led by the Norwegians, French, British, and Italians, are moving into the high-pressure offshore 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 .7C1.I Cl Completion and Lift Equipment A few US oilfield equipment companies and their foreign subsidiaries dominate the international mar- ket for downhole completion and artificial lift equip- ment, Major com- pletion equipment components includefloat shoes and centralizers for well cementing, specialized well ser- vice tools, equipment such as packers and flow con- trol equipment for production control, wire line equip- ment for removing components from a well, and well safety valves. Like the well completion equipment market, a few US companies and their foreign subsid- iaries control world production of high-capacity, sub- mersible electric pu ps and gas lift recovery system valves. foreign man- ufacturers cannot seriously compete unless they are able to penetrate the US market where most of the non-Communist world's wells are. The relatively low number of well completions and artificial lift pro- grams outside the United States and strong reputation of US suppliers have provided little opportunity for development of foreign competition so far. Still, some foreign companies including Flopetrol-Johnson of France, Site Oil of Canada, and Industrial export of Romania sell limited completion and lift product lines, but they do not compete in the high-pressure, high-temperature, corrosive environment well market. the Soviet Union depends primarily on US downhole completion equip- ment for its needs, especially for use in high-sulfur wells. most downhole completion and artificial lift equipment does not involve high technology, and the decisive factor for foreign manufacturers to enter the field would be profit potential, which could rise sharply if US manu- facturers were forced out of markets because of exceptionally high prices or trade restrictions. F__~ Offshore Equipment The tremendous growth of the offshore industry has led to a diffusion of offshore technology and equip- ment manufacturing capability to many countries throughout the world, including Great Britain, Nor- way, the Netherlands, France, Finland, Italy, Japan, Brazil, and Japan. Numerous foreign engineering and Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Ocean Odyssey. Japanese-built, semisubmersible drilling rig. construction companies in Western Europe and East Asia have the ability to design and construct the largest and most advanced offshore drilling and pro- duction platforms in use today. Moreover, in light of the expected growth of offshore production and the sizable capital investment it requires, many foreign governments, including the United Kingdom, Nor- way, France, and Italy, are trying to establish their countries as leaders in offshore production technology and manufacturing capability. Subsea technology and equipment is perhaps the major area of the offshore industry that was an exclusive domain of US companies, but is no longer. Although subsea technology originated in the United States, many US companies have manufacturing facilities in Europe, South America, and East Asia, and licensing agreements have been made with nu- merous major foreign firms. Although US firms still have the most experience in engineering, manufactur- ing, and installation of subsea equipment, British, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 secret French, Norwegian, and more recently Brazilian com- panies have entered the subsea market with competi- Subsea Oil Systems tive technology. Technology and equipment to exploit offshore Arctic resources are currently under development in a num- ber of advanced countries that are vying for the potentially large Arctic offshore market. Finland pro- duces 60 percent of the world's icebreakers, needed to support Arctic oil operations, and is an important supplier of Arctic offshore drilling rigs and platforms as well. Japanese companies have recently fabricated large offshore drilling platforms for use in the Beau- fort Sea offshore northern Alaska and Canada. F_ The offshore industry requires a large variety of other specialized equipment and technologies as well, most of it available abroad: Subsea oil systems are characterized by the use of a nearby fixed platform as field center, with subsea completed wells-single satellite wells or template wells-connected to the platform. The fixed platform provides all major functions and support, such as manifolding, power supply, monitoring, control, and processing. More advanced subsea technology and concepts are being developed that use a distant platform as a field center with a complex network of subsea facilities that are installed and maintained remotely. Subsea oil systems technology has largely been derived from advances in the aerospace, nuclear power, submarine, robotics, and automation indus- ? Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) have become essential in deepwater production to service subsea equipment, which is uneconomical to reach by manned systems. France, Canada, Norway, Swe- den, the United Kingdom, and Japan are all active in ROV development. ? Companies in France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Finland manufacture dynamic posi- tioning systems and motion compensation systems using sophisticated onboard computers to keep drill ships stable and in position in deep water. ? Dutch and Italian companies are world leaders in the design of heavy lift barges, and Japanese com- panies, such as Sumitomo and Mitsui, have built the majority of these massive vessels. ? Saipem of Italy is a world leader in deep sea pipeline construction having constructed pipelines in the Norwegian trench and in the Mediterranean at depths up to 600 meters. France's ETPM is also expert in underwater pipeline construction. Transmission and Control Equipment Virtually all technology and equipment involved in building and operating crude oil and natural gas pipelines are widely available abroad and, in some cases, foreign manufacturers have the most advanced technology and experience: ? Although many foreign steel mills produce line pipe up to 48 inches in diameter, only a few countries including West Germany, Italy, and Japan produce 56-inch-diameter pipe. In fact, 56-inch line pipe is one of the few types of petroleum equipment that is not produced in the United States. ? Gas turbines in all sizes are available from a number of foreign suppliers, including Nuovo Pignone of Italy, Hispano-Suiza of France, A. S. Kongsberg of Norway, Sulzer and Brown Boveri Company (BBC) of Switzerland, and Hitachi of Japan. foreign turbine technology is as good as that in the United States, and selection of a brand depends primarily on the financing package offered by the manufacturers. ? High-capacity compressors are produced by many foreign manufacturers, including competitive mod- els produced by Nuovo Pignone of Italy and Thomassen of the Netherlands. The market for small gas compressors ranging in output from 10 to 800 horsepower (HP) is controlled by a few foreign companies, including Atlas Copco of Sweden and Demag of West Germany. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret ? Pipeline instrumentation and control equipment- such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems-are available from suppliers in France, the United Kingdom, West Germany, and Japan. ? Although US companies still dominate the pipeline inspection equipment market, British Gas Corpora- tion is considered a particularly strong potential challenger offering state-of-the-art equipment with highly sophisticated computer instrumentation in- corporated in the inspection tool. ? Large, specialized onshore pipeline construction equipment, such as sideboom tractors, can only be purchased from a few foreign countries. A US firm and Komatsu of Japan control the world's supply of large pipelaying vehicles. Engineering and Project Management Services Engineering and project management services are essential elements of virtually all energy development projects. Although US firms are still recognized as the most skilled project managers, especially for difficult projects that require high productivity and completion in a minimum of time, foreign compa- nies-such as Technip of France, Snamprogetti and Saipem of Italy, Davy McKee and John Brown of the United Kingdom, and the Japanese companies Mit- subishi and Mitsui are stiff competitors. In South- east Asia, Japanese engineering is predominant but is being challenged by competition from Korean firms. 25X1 Major West European firms are active in all other areas of the non-Communist world. With the increas- ingly fierce competition for major projects, a trend is developing in which US firms do the front-end engineering and design work and overall project management, but foreign companies receive the contracts for detailed engineer- ing, procurement, and construction. This enables the client to combine the best design and management skills from the United States with less expensive foreign construction-the major project expense. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 ~ecrei Offshore exploration in the Beaufort Sea has been under way for 10 years, and a variety of techniques for exploratory drilling in ice-infested waters have been pioneered. Conventional drill ships have been used during times of no ice or light ice, and icebreak- ing tugs have been used to allow drill ships to remain on station well into the winter. At protected sites where ice motions are small, artificially thickened ice platforms have been used successfully. By far the most commonly used method of providing a drilling platform has been the construction of artificial is- lands made with sediment dredged from the nearby sea floor or transported from shore. These islands have been built in water up to 19 meters. Steel and concrete refloatable, bottom founded structures are also being developed. Once oil or gas is found, exploration systems will be replaced with even larger production systems de- signed to last for roughly 20 years. Auxiliary sys- tems, such as subsea pipelines and, in some cases, subsea production systems, will be required and will have to be protected from ice scour. Improved sen- sors, such as radar, acoustics, and optics for detecting ice threats against the production system, will be required. Tankers used in conjunction with icebreak- ers are possible alternative export systems to subsea pipelines. Huge submarines have also been considered as an export system. As the petroleum equipment industry became broadly internationalized in the early I 980s, it was hammered by a severe worldwide recession following the dra- matic downturn in oil demand and the ensuing drop- off in oil prices. Global drilling expenditures outside the Soviet Bloc-an important indicator of the health of the petroleum equipment service industry-fell 35 percent in 1984 from its 1982 peak of $70.2 billion. More than 81 percent of that drop-some $19.8 billion-occurred in US drilling expenditures, the non-Communist world's largest market. Foreign mar- kets suffered much less, experiencing a $4.5 billion cut-or an 18-percent reduction-in drilling expendi- tures although the level of drilling activity remained largely unchanged (table 2). The petroleum equipment industry recession abroad was a depression in the United States. Surplus manufacturing capacity devel- oped in every segment of the service and supply industry worldwide. The severe competition for re- maining markets led to the increasing prominence of low costs, concessionary financing, and special politi- cal relationships as the primary factors in determining which companies receive equipment and service con- tracts. We expect these factors to continue to domi- nate the international petroleum equipment market In their competition abroad with foreign manufactur- ers, US companies have been hit particularly hard during the recession by the strength of the dollar, traditionally higher labor costs, and older technology in some equipment manufacturing processes. As a result, some identical products cost far less to manu- facture abroad than in the United States. For exam- ple, steel made in South Korea costs approximately one-third that made in the United States, Labor cost differentials are evident in the wages paid to oil industry welders. A US welder is paid $10 per hour on the gulf coast and $20 to $25 per hour on the west coast, and Korean and Japanese welders are paid $2 per hour and $6 per hour, respectively, Moreover, in a highly cost-conscious market, more subjective considerations of technical superiority and experience areas of US strength carry substantial- ly less weight in investment decisions. That the US suffered as a result of these international competitive forces is reflected in the precipitous slide of US petroleum equipment exports from about $11 billion in 1982 to about $5 billion in 1984, according to official US trade statistics. Intense competition has also increased the importance of favorable financing arrangements in winning com- petitive bids abroad, especially for major contracts. One major international contractor stated that project financing dictates which companies receive business. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret British-built remotely operated vehicle used for subsea repair Balder. Japanese-built, off- shore crane, 3,000-ton lifting Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Table 2 Non-Communist World Petroleum Industry Drilling Expenditures Average Annual Growth Rate, 1985-90 Total 24.6 25.4 20.4 47.8 36.3 11.1 10.1 United States 37.7 6.8 19.5 5.2 34.5 8.1 10.0 7.7 Canada 2.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 4.4 4.1 18.4 21.1 Western Europe 0.4 7.1 0.3 5.2 0.7 9.2 15.2 10.0 2.7 1.4 2.3 3.0 4.0 13.5 9.7 1.0 1.9 0.8 2.0 1.8 3.0 14.5 7.0 Africa 0.9 1.9 0.8 1.8 1.6 3.1 12.2 9.5 East Asia 1.0 2.6 1.8 4.8 10.3 10.8 Foreign manufacturers can frequently offer more attractive financing because of government support and greater flexibility to engage in barter deals. For instance, concessionary lending terms by the Export- Import Bank of Japan are helping Japanese oil development firms working offshore in Southeast Asia. According to an authoritative oil industry publi- cation, the Tokyo bank sets its loan rate for develop- ment of overseas resources for import into Japan between 6 and 7 percent, appreciably lower than normal international commercial lending rates. Multi- national trading companies from oil-importing coun- tries, such as South Korea and Japan, have become particularly adept at trading services for oil exports from countries with low foreign currency reserves or soft currency. South Korean companies are lifting about 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) from Libya in trade for a variety of engineering services. European governments, particularly in France, West Germany, and the United Kingdom, also have government- backed financing programs and encourage barter arrangements to support petroleum equipment ex- ports. The United Kingdom's Export Credits Guaran- tee Department (ECGD) is often cited Special political relationships-both positive and neg- ative-have also affected the ability of Western equipment suppliers to market their products. In many cases, they determine which country's compa- nies may even be considered for a contract. Most important is the tendency-dictated by tradition and local content law-for equipment purchasers to favor domestic suppliers when they are available. As the domestic equipment industries in new oil production countries grow and become able to provide better products, foreign suppliers are increasingly excluded from the market. This trend has been noticeable in Brazil and may soon be the case in India. Italy's long relationship with Libya has provided important ad- vantages in competing for oil service and construction work there. Business trade-offs involved in such a relationship led AGIP to agree to relatively unfavor- able terms to develop Libya's offshore Bouri field in large part because most of the construction work will also be handled by Italian firms. The US industry's relationship with Saudi Arabia and French involve- ment in Algeria are somewhat similar in giving preferential treatment to contractors. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Adversarial political relationships and government policies have a more immediate impact on the equip- ment industry. Tehran's aversion to French or US equipment and service companies and Iraq's parallel reluctance to deal with Japanese equipment suppliers restrict business alternatives, as do US restrictions on equipment sales to the Soviet Union and Libya. On balance, these political relationships appear to have adversely affected the ability of the US petroleum industry to compete abroad in recent years and have expanded market and technological opportunities for foreign suppliers. We expect the international petroleum equipment market to continue its steady recovery from its 1983 bottom but do not expect the market to reach its 1982 peak again until late this decade, and then only on a current dollar basis. Such a recovery is predicated on the absence of an oil price collapse that remains a significant risk in the next few years. A less likely risk the major disruption of international oil trade by war or political instability in major producing countries could drive the market up more quickly than expected in response to escalating oil prices and the possible need for emergency restoration. With most forecasters expecting non-Communist world oil demand to increase only modestly-average annual growth between 0.5 and 2 percent over the balance of the decade we believe demand for equipment and services will probably grow an average of 10 to 11 percent per year on a current basis as investors recover from the precipitous drop of 1983 and antici- pate significant real oil price increases in the 1990s. The growth of industry investment and expenditures will be uneven in its strength and geographical distri- bution, however: ? The US onshore oil industry-which has tradition- ally accounted for almost all oil industry invest- ment will be the slowest growing regional onshore market over the balance of the decade. Still, we expect the United States to constitute more than half of the world's petroleum equipment market into the 1990s. ? Among other onshore markets, those with the larg- est accessible potential petroleum resources-the Middle East and Latin America will probably be the focal point of exploration, development, and production activities. ? Canada, starting from a small base, will be the fastest growing national equipment market over the balance of the decade as it moves to develop its petroleum finds in the far north. ? Continued development of the North Sea will make it the largest offshore market during the 1980s, but growth rates will slow from peaks reached in the late 1970s. The dramatic shift in the international petroleum equipment industry to a weakened and highly compet- itive market in which the United States is the major, but not uncontested, force is likely to continue. We believe lower profitability and increased competitive- ness will probably mean continuing corporate consoli- dations among equipment companies in the industrial- ized countries, especially in the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. Moreover, increasingly restrictive local content laws in oil-producing coun- tries is likely to force further industry underutiliza- tion, particularly at the low-technology fabrication end of the petroleum equipment market. Equipment development efforts will probably focus on new materials and designs that will lower drilling maintenance and service requirements and new pro- duction equipment for harsh environments-both on- shore and offshore. The need to develop marginal offshore fields will lead to continued development of simple, cost-effective subsea completion gear. Oil companies will also be interested as always in any technology capable of reducing exploration and devel- opment costs the major capital investment in any petroleum program. These developments will all take place in an industry that is in the midst of some fundamental market changes with broad implications for the future of the equipment industry. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret The Offshore Industry The most important shift in the petroleum equipment market is the greater role played by the offshore market since the 1983 recession. The fall in offshore investment in 1983 was much less than onshore because of the longer time horizon for investment payback and much larger sums needed to carry out a single project. As a result, onshore and offshore markets probably will grow at nearly the same rates through the 1980s, although the offshore market will be moving to new investment highs as the onshore market tries to return to its 1982 peak. The offshore market probably will become even more important in the I 990s, further stimulating the growth of foreign equipment suppliers. In particular, advanced compa- nies in Western Europe and Japan and low cost equipment manufacturers in Asia should benefit from this trend. The focus of offshore investment activities through the balance of the I 980s will probably be in the already established petroleum provinces of the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico with work in the new Canadian offshore fields showing the fastest growth. Efforts in the established petroleum provinces will focus on adding new productive capacity near existing fields and increasing the productivity of current oper- ations. Total annual average spending on North Sea projects is projected at more than $15 billion through 1990, according to recent industry studies, and we expect suppliers in the United Kingdom and Norway will receive most of the contracts for this develop- ment. Canadian activities will focus on developing the new resource base established off Newfoundland and Labrador with US and Canadian companies probably receiving most of this work (table 3). We believe countries with large reserves and surplus capacity, such as the Arab producers of the Persian Gulf, will maintain programs at low levels while other countries, such as Australia, Indonesia, India, Brazil, and several West African countries, will move aggres- sively to develop their offshore production potential. Competition for contracts in the Third World will be particularly intense, although most of the develop- ment in more advanced nations will be handled by local suppliers. We expect predrilling exploration to occur primarily in the Norwegian Sea and Canadian Arctic Ocean but do not foresee major capital invest- Table 3 World Offshore Outlook: The $50 Billion Market By category Total 54.3 60.2 67.0 74.0 Development 23.2 26.2 29.9- 34.4 Exploration and drilling 20.0 21.0 22.5 23.6 Operating costs 11.0 13.0 14.5 16.0 By region Total 54.3 60.2 67.0 74.0 North America 13.1 14.6 16.0 17.7 Central and South America 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.4 Europe 16.6 18.2 21.1 22.6 Middle East 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.4 East Asia 10.4 11.6 12.8 14.2 Africa 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.7 As the offshore petroleum industry moves increasing- ly into deeper water and hostile climates, new tech- niques will be required in every phase of the industry. In light of the restraining influence of flat oil prices, however, most of the growth in the offshore industry this decade will emphasize improved performance and efficiency, according to industry executing. We would expect the greatest technological innovation to occur in geophysical equipment and possibly exploration drilling techniques as the search for new oil moves into very deep water-over 400 meters-and Arctic environments. We also expect to see greater use of subsea production systems that will make the develop- ment of previously marginal oilfields economical and enable operators to push into still deeper waters, avoiding the dangers of rough or icy surface ment in these regions until the next decade. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Japanese/American design for an all-season Arctic mobile drilling platform. Oil operations will also increasingly use computer technology. Software firms in Europe and the United States are already offering programs for well plan- ning log analysis, casing, tubing and drill string developing offshore capacity to meet growing demand and possibly declining onshore oil production (table 4). design, blowout controls, and directional drilling. The Onshore Industry Computers are being used to monitor the performance Most onshore expenditures in the non-Communist of equipment and to search for failure and dangers. world will continue to be made in the United States. Computer-aided design (CAD) systems are playing a Major investments will be made both in finding new major role in producing new floating structures oil and upgrading oil recovery from existing fields, expected to replace traditional fixed platforms for development of new deepwater finds. By the late 1990s major technological and engineering break- throughs will probably be much more critical in 17 Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Table 4 Current and Future Role of Electronics in the Oil Industry Drilling MWD and rig floor sensors linked to computer functions provide improved drilling efficiency. Production-offshore All production, processing, and alarm inspec- Seismic Ability to transmit and correct data on location Design Computerized calculation and graphics enable engineers to design on a video terminal. Construction Computer-aided manufacturing. Installation-offshore Placement of mobile and fixed structures are conducted hypothetically on computer graphics. Underwater Remote control, TV manipulators, microprocessors. Transportation pipelines Widespread use of SCADA for monitoring and control. 3-D holographic images to observe drilling progress and the formation penetration. Robotic controls of drilling operation. Unmanned platform complexes to be operated onshore. Following real-time interpretation, detailed seismic survey will commence immediately. Software will receive environmental, production input and produce a completed design electronically. Computerization and robotics will provide fabrication of basic and even customized structural elements. Advanced modeling of mating, towing, and installation critical for deepwater, hostile environment. All underwater operations will be conducted by remote control and 3-D observation, assisted by artificial intelligence. Increased technical sophistication of systems. especially in Alaska. Oilmen expect that Canada and Latin America will be the primary areas of new foreign onshore drilling. Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia all have active onshore programs under way. Mexico and Venezuela probably will continue their efforts to replace onshore oil reserves and main- tain productive capacity. Equipment markets else- where will be closely linked to the local desire for petroleum self-sufficiency or exports, domestic petro- leum prospects, and political stability: ? Iran and Sudan, among others, are not likely to attract major new investments despite their petro- leum potential if more stable business environments do not develop. ? Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and Iraq, in contrast, could be growing equipment markets. ? Major oil exporters with limited onshore reserves, such as Nigeria and Indonesia, are likely to main- tain programs to ensure reserve and productive capacity stability. Onshore petroleum programs, especially in the domi- nant US market, are moving into deeper structures with higher pressures and often extremely corrosive petroleum. These conditions require new corrosion resistant materials in drill pipes and casings such as chromium steel and nickel alloys. Among the most important new drilling developments likely to see broad use in the next few years for both onshore and offshore operations is MWD technology. MWD saves drilling time and averts downhole accidents by provid- ing operators immediate information on downhole activity and environment through sensors or recorders near the drill bit. Downhole motors and turbodrills are being used in many straight-hole applications because their increased reliability and higher torque capability permit faster-and ultimately less expen- sive-drilling. As with offshore activities, the use of Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret computers for monitoring and control of production operations is expected to grow tremendously. SCADA systems have become widespread in production, pro- cessing, and pipeline operations, and their use will continue to increase in all phases of facility opera- tions. The USSR and China-The Special Cases Ambitious energy goals in both the USSR and China could mean a major expansion of Western business opportunities well into the 1990s. Moscow, with the need to defer or prevent substantial oil production declines, faces serious technical problems in maintain- ing production in Western Siberia, developing re- serves in Central Asia, and exploring the petroleum potential of the offshore Arctic regions. Beijing will need massive Western assistance to reach its goal to double oil production by the end of the century through a strategy of maintaining its mature onshore fields, developing its offshore potential, and beginning the search for oil in western China. Although these national markets will remain relatively small-annual average of less than $1 billion each in Western sales- in the global petroleum market context, West Euro- pean and Japanese companies are gearing up for them. Companies who enter these markets early could be in a better position for larger programs in the 1990s. Soviet interest in Western technology will probably increase as exploration and development shift to deeper and more complex onshore and offshore depos- its, especially as exploitation of the deep sulfurous petroleum deposits in the Pre-Caspian Depression and Central Asia proceeds. In areas where hydrogen sulfide (H,S) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are present under high pressure and temperature conditions, the Soviets must acquire Western equipment including sour oil and gas manifold systems and blowout pre- ventors, as well as controls for severe service and sour oil and gas processing and treating equipment. We also believe the Soviets will buy large quantities of basic oilfield equipment from the West including high-capacity submersible pumps, gas lift equipment, drill pipe tool joints, and drill bits. The Soviets are also likely to continue relying on Western sources for the bulk of their large diameter pipe and-despite claims to the contrary-large numbers of gas tur- bines. Although these needs are diverse, they repre- sent only a modest part of a major undertaking the Soviets can largely execute themselves. The Soviet Union is also beginning to examine off- shore Arctic areas as a possible major source of oil supplies and may put increasing emphasis on the exploration and development of the Barents and Kara Seas if onshore oil production continues to decline as we expect. By 1990 Moscow will probably add nine 25X1 drilling rigs to the three already operating in the Barents and may ultimately spend nearly $8 billion for Barents Sea petroleum development Because of the numerous technical challenges in exploiting offshore Arctic petroleum resources, we believe the pace of Soviet exploration and development will depend on Moscow's willingness to permit a major role for Western firms in manning and managing operations and possibly on the avail- ability of Western financing.' in contrast to the Soviet Union, China is actively pursuing Western technology and equipment pur- chases and licensing arrangements in its quest to double crude oil production to 4 million b/d by 2000. Numerous Western and Asian companies have signed joint-venture agreements with the Chinese in areas ranging from seismic equipment to gas turbine manu- facturing. In these agreements, the foreign partner usually provides the technology and training, and the Chinese partner supplies all materials and labor. Not unlike other new oil-producing LDCs, China's long- term aim is to develop its own petroleum technology and eventually export equipment and services. - Beijing wants to increase development and recovery in existing onshore fields-including imports of well stimulation and enhanced recovery technology-to boost production with the least capital investment. expect annual investment in onshore exploration and development to double or triple to $3-4 billion per year over the next three to five years. The Chinese are particularly concerned about sustain- ing output through 1990 at the aging Daqing oilfield, which produces half of China's oil. As a result, China is looking for a full range of petroleum equipment, including drilling technology and equipment, produc- tion equipment-especially high-volume submersible 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Victor Muravlenko. Finnish- built, dynamically positioned Soviet-commissioned jack-up drilling rig under construction Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret electric pumps, and oil and gas separation and dehy- drating facilities. In addition, China needs advanced seismic and geophysical equipment and services to explore for petroleum in the isolated Western desert. China's offshore equipment needs are currently cen- tered on exploration and drilling-related equipment. Offshore drilling more than doubled in 1984 over 1983 to a total of 45 exploratory wells and 30 development wells. Investment in offshore exploration jumped from about $100 million in 1981 to $600-700 million in 1984. If commercial reserves are found, China will need the full range of offshore development and production equipment and services available in the West. The apparent lack of success in offshore exploration efforts so far has diminished the prospects of a major offshore production equipment market in China by 1990, however. We expect the international petroleum equipment industry to continue to evolve in a manner that erodes the dominance of US equipment manufacturers both in market share and technology leadership. West European, Japanese, and Korean equipment manu- facturers are likely to be the prime beneficiaries of this shift, but protected oil-producing LDC markets in countries such as Brazil and India also will lead to a new competitive force at least locally. Foreign manu- facturing cost and financing advantages-compound- ed by the current strength of the dollar and the spread of US technology as well as the growth of foreign petroleum technologies are critical-and largely irreversible factors in this process. More- over, the slow shift of investment away from the historically massive US onshore market to foreign offshore markets will compound the problems of US manufacturers who have traditionally had a sizable home court advantage. US petroleum equipment sup- pliers are likely to expand their manufacturing capa- bilities abroad to remain competitive in foreign mar- kets, continuing the downturn in US equipment exports. Besides greater competition abroad, the international- ization process will lead to increasing penetration of the US petroleum equipment market-still the world's largest-at the lower end of the technology range. The markets for high-technology and special- ized equipment for particularly demanding conditions and onshore drilling will still be dominated by US companies and their foreign subsidiaries by the 1990s, but we expect competition to increase from companies in Western Europe and Japan. The internationalization of the petroleum equipment industry has severely reduced the effectiveness of US unilateral export controls and, in our judgment, may soon challenge the effectiveness of COCOM controls on key dual-use equipment. Countries seeking equip- ment covered by US unilateral export licensing con- trols, such as the Soviet Union and Libya, can procure comparable equipment in most cases from suppliers in Western Europe, Japan, and occasionally from newly industrialized countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, and South Korea when they cannot ac- quire it indirectly from US manufacturers. In the few cases where US sole-sourced items are unilaterally denied a foreign country, we believe foreign petroleum equipment manufacturers could produce acceptable substitutes in one to two years if the market size warranted. The knowledge to design and produce most petroleum equipment is widespread, and the delays in providing alternative equipment would largely be attributable to the time to install a suitable manufacturing capability. In major petro- leum projects, a two-year leadtime in acquiring equip- ment is largely inconsequential in economic terms because long manufacturing and installation lead- times and a long productive life are normally expected for such equipment. Moreover, if foreign companies grab markets from US companies, the foreign manu- facturers will be in a stronger position to develop better technology, manufacturing capability, and in- ternational credibility to compete in what most ob- servers expect will be a larger global petroleum equipment market in the 1990s. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 secret Petroleum equipment trade with Communist coun- tries-restricted by COCOM regulations when there is a clear military dual-use technology involved- could also soon be challenged by alternative supplies from non-COCOM countries. Advanced countries that are not COCOM members, such as Sweden and Finland, have sophisticated petroleum industries that can produce some equipment currently controlled by COCOM. Although suppliers in the non-COCOM, newly industrialized countries are not yet able to manufacture COCOM-controlled petroleum equip- ment, increasing local electronics manufacturing so- phistication could give them such a capability in the future. This changing pattern of petroleum equipment technology availability indicates that multilateral co- operation beyond COCOM may soon be needed to prevent military-related technology embodied in petroleum gear particularly sophisticated explora- tion sensing and processing equipment-from reach- ing Bloc countries. However, agreement to expand the control of sensitive oil and gas equipment sales beyond COCOM will be difficult because of intense competi- tive sales pressure and disinterest in the security implications of such sales. Despite the likely adverse trade consequences for the United States, the increased equipment manufactur- ing capacity in the non-Communist world-particu- larly in the oil production and transmission sectors- would permit quick expansion of production to replace damaged equipment if a major oil supply source were disrupted in the near future. The heightened competi- tiveness of the industry has also led to reduced oil exploration and development investment costs for oil- importing countries, providing an incentive for more exploration and an opportunity to reduce reliance on vulnerable foreign oil sources, such as those in the Persian Gulf. International technological competition may soon enable economically attractive exploration of oil in the most hostile environments and drilling conditions, provide a capability to handle highly pressurized and corrosive reservoirs, and recover addi- tional reserves from fields now in decline. The current global competition in petroleum equipment markets is a strong inducement for innovation in petroleum equipment products and manufacturing techniques that is likely to be important in advancing petroleum production and reserves in the 1990s when most forecasters next anticipate a tight oil market. Secret 22 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Appendix A The Petroleum Equipment Industries of Key Foreign Countries This appendix describes the equipment industries of major foreign petroleum equipment manufacturing countries and highlights government policy supporting the development of an indigenous equipment industry. Other types of government support such as R&D and export assistance in both major and minor oil- producing countries are also discussed. Areas of spe- cial manufacturing capability or technical expertise are noted for each country as are key companies that play an important international role. Wartsila is the only shipbuilding firm that has the ability to carry on basic and applied research, model testing, product development design, production, and full-scale testing. Additionally, the Finnish Govern- ment operates a technical research center for studies on ice mechanics, winter navigation, instrumentation and measuring systems in cold climates, and Arctic construction and marine technology. Besides shipbuilding, Finnish companies are prepar- ing to supply a range of offshore equipment to the Finland Soviet Union. As part of this effort, the Finnish The Finnish petroleum equipment industry has an shipbuilder Valmet has just signed an agreement with established reputation in the construction of special- a major US company to apply its expertise gained in ized vessels and drilling rigs for the offshore industry. the North Sea and Arctic Canada to the production of Finland is one of the leading suppliers of Arctic jackets, decks, and topside modules-equipment that offshore drilling rigs. The Finnish shipbuilding indus- can be used in the Barents Sea. Helsinki recently try uses the most advanced technology available, and signed a bilateral trade program to supply Moscow its products are highly competitive in the world offshore technology through 1985. marketplace in spite of relatively modest government financial support by international standards. France Finland exports more than 80 percent of its shipbuild- ing production and about 50 percent of its exports are to the Soviet Union. Wartsila currently has a contract with the USSR to build five construction crane vessels for offshore operations. Rauma-Repola has fabricated three advanced drillships for the Soviets and is cur- rently constructing two jackups, all for Arctic opera- tions. As of late 1983 the USSR had 22 vessels on order with Finnish yards, including three research vessels, four ocean tugs, two crane ships, four multi- purpose carriers, two barge carriers, and five other special-purpose vessels. Finland is making a concerted effort in applied ice research and icebreaking technology. A large test- cone-type platform has been built recently at Valmet's Helsinki shipyard for measuring forces of ice against a fenced structure. Research work on ice also is being carried out at Wartsila shipbuilding company, the world's leading supplier of icebreakers. development of an indigenous French oil equipment industry for more than 20 years, and France is now the second leading exporter of petroleum technology and equipment. Cooperation between the government and private industry was instrumental in achieving this position. French policymakers have believed that a large and technically advanced oil industry would help France open up access to foreign oil resources and improve the security of its oil supply position. Overall French Government support for the develop- ment of offshore technology probably exceeds any other government, according to an authoritative industry publication. In the early development of France's offshore industry, the government decided to reduce competition among domestic firms by assign- ing research functions to specialized agencies. The resulting developments were then licensed to private firms for commercial applications. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Much of the new technology and development pro- duced by French industry originates within two major government agencies, Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP) and the French Research Institute for the Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER), which deal with petroleum and oceanographic research, respectively. Both work closely with the two major French interna- tional oil companies, CFP-Total and ELF Aquitaine, and a number of French international and domestic petroleum equipment companies and contractors. (c NF) Areas of offshore technology where French industry is now in the forefront include: ? Diving and advanced underwater work (COMEX). ? Flexible pipe (COFLEXIP). ? Directional drilling (CFP-Total, FORAMER). ? Deepwater drilling technology (Elf-Aquitaine, Total). ? Production and subsea technology (ACB). ? Tension leg platforms (G. G. Doris, Bougyues Off- shore, CFEM). Examples of advanced French expertise include the Upper Zakum Project off Abu Dhabi, engineered by Serete, and the 1982 world deep sea drilling record of 1,714 meters set by Elf and Total. Elf, in association with Total and I.F.P., is preparing equipment and procedures for drilling a well in 3,000 meters of water in the Mediterranean, far exceeding the current record drilling depth of 1,965 meters by US Shell in the Baltimore Canyon area off New Jersey. The French Government recently has been wrestling with severe problems in the French oil service industry caused by the recession in the worldwide oil industry and the lack of competitiveness of some French equipment companies. According to the US Embassy in Paris, sales of French petroleum equipment and services fell from $9.1 billion in 1982 to about $6.6 billion in 1983, which was a steeper plunge than most foreign equipment exporters during that depressed period. Creusot-Loire, a major heavy equipment man- ufacturer, collapsed last year, and a number of other large firms including UIE (offshore platforms) and Technip (engineering services) are in trouble. The US Embassy in Paris reports that, although French sup- pliers have raised the possibility of government assis- tance to the industry in the form of new financing schemes to foreign clients, officials and industry Italy State-financed companies hold a preeminent position in Italy. The Italian petroleum industry falls under the aegis of Ministry for State Participation, which, in turn, controls two major groups, ENI and IRI. The major petroleum-related entities within ENI are AGIP, the national oil company, SNAM, the national gas company, Saipem and Snamprogetti, competing engineering and construction companies, and Nuovo Pignone, a mechanical manufacturing company. Among the energy-related suppliers within IRI are Finsider in steel production, Fincantieri in ship, plat- form, and drilling rig manufacturing, and Finmec- canica and Selenia in electronics, control, and auto- mation systems manufacturing. Despite the dominance of large state companies, Italian indepen- dents occupy important portions within the industry. Micoperi in Milan and Belleli in Mantua are two large private companies engaged in offshore petro- leum design, fabrication, and construction work. In addition, Tecnomare was founded in 1971 by a group of Italian private and state companies interest- ed in developing marine petroleum technology. Be- sides innovative deepwater R&D and engineering, Tecnomare is heavily involved in studies of petroleum development in Arctic conditions. The banking group IMI, which heads Tecnomare, is also responsible for managing a state fund to finance applied offshore research. Major state involvement in all aspects of Italy's petroleum industry has led to significant R&D bud- gets that have propelled Italian companies to the forefront of many areas of petroleum technology. Major technologies and projects developed by Italian companies include: ? The Transmed gas pipeline designed and construct- ed by Snamprogetti and Saipem. Italian companies are leaders in offshore pipeline construction and have laid the deepest underwater pipeline in the world-up to 610 meters. ? Tecnomare's design of the largest offshore steel platform in the world for Phillips Petroleum's Mau- reen field in the United Kingdom. sources do not envision their adoption. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret ? Development by AGIP and other Italian companies of Libya's offshore Bouri field-the largest offshore oilfield in the Mediterranean. ? Nuovo Pignone's development and use of the first telemetry system for centralized control of several drilling and process platforms offshore through a command center on land. Japan Japan entered the field of international energy re- source development late. Unlike Europe's experience with the North Sea, Japan has no major petroleum provinces to develop. With government assistance, Japanese companies have had to slowly build exper- tise in the upstream end of the petroleum business. Today, Japanese companies are competitors in many areas of the petroleum equipment industry, although much Japanese equipment particularly involving drilling and production technology is based on licences and manufacturing arrangements with US companies. The Japan National Oil Corporation (JNOC) was established by the government in 1967 to support and encourage petroleum development initiated in the Japanese private sector. JNOC provides equity capital and loans, guarantees, and other forms of assistance to Japanese oil companies. Further financial assis- tance is supplied by the Export-Import Bank of Japan, which provides attractive loan rates for companies developing petroleum resources to be imported by Japan. At the end of March 1983, equity capital supplied by JNOC was 42 percent of Japan's entire worldwide exploration and development capital in- vestment of $1.2 billion. Japan aims to increase the amount of oil supplied through Japanese companies to some 1.2 million b/d in 1995 from the 1984 level of 300,000 b/d. Japanese petroleum equipment manu- facturers benefit from Japanese development projects because of Japanese companies' tendencies to rely on indigenously manufactured equipment. The Japanese petroleum equipment industry includes both the general trading companies, such as Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, and Nissho Iwai, and multina- tional manufacturers, such as IHI, Hitachi Zosen, Hitachi, and Toshiba. The interrelationship between these companies is complex, and major projects often involve a number of companies working together. Japanese trading companies are particularly adept at developing worldwide business opportunities and di- recting business toward Japanese companies. Some of the trading companies own their manufacturing facili- ties, while others rely on affiliated companies. Gener- al trading companies also do engineering and project management work and have extensive research and development facilities. Mitsui, for instance, has an extensive Arctic ice engineering and construction laboratory. Japanese companies are particularly noted for their expertise in petroleum equipment materials and fabri- cation. Japanese steel companies are world leaders with four companies Nippon Steel, Nippon Kokan, Kawasaki, and Sumitomo-ranking among the world's top 10 steel producers. The world petroleum industry has relied on the Japanese steel industry for much of the major petroleum equipment fabrication projects, ranging from offshore platforms to 56-inch line pipe. Among the strengths of Japanese companies are quality of product, broad product lines, the ability to form consortiums with other Japanese steel mills to meet large orders, and heavy investment in research and development. major thrusts of Sumitomo, Kawasaki, and Nippon Kokan's marketing strategy appear to be increasing emphasis on tubular products and increasing markets in the Soviet Union and China. Nippon Steel is expected to maintain its leading role in the worldwide steel industry and concentrate on developing high value-added products such as tubulars and surface- treated steels. Norway Norwegian policy has been to maintain strict control over oil and gas field development to ensure a steady level of return to the state in capital investment and to provide work for Norwegian fabrication yards and Norwegian suppliers. Oslo's policy also emphasizes the commitment of foreign R&D to Norwegian com- panies. Between 1979 and 1986 a total of 19 foreign firms will have to put up more than NKr 2 billion ($220 million) for some 512 projects under technology agreements signed by the beginning of 1983. As in the case of the United Kingdom, the Norwegians have 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret used the oil and gas field licensing procedure to implement these policies. Key criteria in their choice of licenses include: ? Satisfactory participation by Statoil. ? Proof of ability to strengthen the Norwegian econo- my, industrial growth, and employment. ? The applicant's past promotion of the use of Norwe- gian goods and services. As a result of this approach to industry development and its experience in the North Sea, Norway is becoming a technical leader in several essential off- shore technologies, including seismic exploration, drilling, and production, especially in sub-Arctic waters. GECO, a subsidiary of Det Norske Veritas partly owned by the Norwegian Government, is a world leader in the development and use of sophisti- cated offshore seismic equipment. A number of Nor- wegian engineering companies, such as Aker Engi- neering and Kvaerner Engineering, have developed new technologies for deepwater drilling and produc- tion. The oil division of Kongsberg Vapenfabrik is planning to become a major force in the production of subsea equipment and is working with a major US company to manufacture equipment for use in the deepwater fields in the North Sea. Kongsberg believes that subsea production will probably expand rapidly over the next five years as virtually every development scheme in Norway's Continental Shelf will involve use of such facilities. Norway is also among the technical leaders in offshore electronics, advanced dynamic positioning, and remotely operated underwater vehi- cles (ROVs). Much of the advanced research in petroleum technol- ogy is carried out by Norwegian research organiza- tions whose work is sought worldwide. Det Norske Veritas is becoming a major force as a certifying organization for offshore work and is creating compe- tition for the American Petroleum Institute to the dismay of US equipment suppliers. Foreign interest is high in applying Norwegian expertise to Arctic waters in Canada, Alaska, and the USSR. The Soviet Union recently contracted with Norway's BOCONOR group to sketch a "master plan" for Barents Sea develop- ment projects. This plan, comprising both fixed plat- forms and subsea production units, was presented to the Soviets last year. Sweden Swedish petroleum equipment companies have estab- lished a reputation in areas such as manufacturing specialized steels (Sandvik, SKF), submersible tech- nology (Sutec, Kockums) electronics/ communications technologies (LM Erickson) and prime movers and compressors (ASEA Stal-Laval). More recently, Gotaverken Arendal (GVA) has emerged as a major competitor in semisubmersible platform design and construction. The Swedish Government is particularly interested in research and development in ocean technology and has commenced a three-year national program to develop Swedish qualifications and competence in the field. The government has allocated $4 million for this program to be managed by the Swedish Board for Technical Development (STU). The areas of offshore technology of particular interest to Sweden include: ? Underwater technology. ? Specialized steel technology for application in sour gasfield development. ? Electronic technology for sensing, control, and data processing. ? Arctic environment technology. The National Defense Research Institute (FOA) spon- sors a number of underwater technology projects that have petroleum industry applications. Special exper- tise has been developed in navigation and positioning inside underwater structures, airborne laser bathyme- try, obstacle mapping for Arctic shipping routes, seismic exploration, and deep diving. United Kingdom Starting with the early development of the North Sea, London has consistently followed an "open door" policy to encourage multinational oil companies to operate in the United Kingdom as long as they use British supply firms as much as possible. British policy was intended to create a British petroleum equipment industry, which had been essentially non- existent before 1965. This policy is implemented through the mechanism of licensing of offshore 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret blocks. The UK Department of Energy (DOE) judges applicants competitively on the basis of their past or intended contribution to the UK economy and their past performance and future commitment to ensure "full and fair opportunity for the UK industry to compete for orders." The DOE controls approval of each development proposal and reviews the percentage of UK content for each component and for the project as a whole. Companies rarely request approval unless they have an acceptably high percentage of UK content- currently in excess of 70 percent. The DOE's operational arm, the Offshore Supplies Office (OSO), assigns an auditor to each operating company and a major contractor to work on future projects. OSO also receives quarterly reports after contracts have been let to ensure that UK suppliers have received "full and fair opportunity." Where UK suppliers appear to be uncompetitive, OSO promotes new ventures, advises on marketing arrangements, sponsors R&D, and provides financial assistance in collaboration with regional development authorities. British firms now provide 70 percent of goods and services used in oil and gas projects, up from only 10 percent in 1974, according to press reports. The UK Government recently added two equipment industry guidelines designed to improve industry's international competitiveness: ? New offshore licenses are to be directly linked to an applicant's readiness to involve UK industry in new offshore technology and R&D projects. ? OSO and the offshore supply industry will actively seek to promote exports of offshore equipment and services. The US Embassy in London reports that OSO has started to implement the government's new policies. In particular, a major US engineering and construc- tion firm found it advisable to form a joint venture with a UK-owned firm to secure work on a very large offshore development project. This firm believes that Britain will henceforth demand similar joint ventures whenever US suppliers seek to obtain high-technology contracts in the UK sector of the North Sea. The structure of the UK offshore industry is undergo- ing significant change from the boom years of the 1970s. It is making the sometimes painful transition from a sector biased toward heavy engineering involv- ing the construction of large offshore platforms in Great Britain to one geared more toward technology and design expertise which can be marketed abroad. Areas identified by OSO for research and develop- ment include: ? Marginal oil and gas field development. ? High-pressure deep gasfield development. ? Enhanced oil recovery, gas condensate development, and heavy oil recovery. The UK Government is also encouraging the further development of subsea and ROV technology and deviated and horizontal drilling in deep water. West Germany West German petroleum equipment companies are a major force in the world petroleum equipment indus- try. In 1983 West German companies were the largest suppliers to the Soviet Union of machinery and equipment for exploration, production, and pipeline operation equipment-almost $400 million and, next to Japan, the second-largest supplier of pipe- almost $700 million. Among the major contracts, Mannesmann has supplied significant quantities of large-diameter pipe for the Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe, and AEG Kanis has supplied gas turbine engine parts. Annual average sales of the German offshore industry exceed $600 million with annual increases in sales of all plant, equipment, and services in the offshore sector averaging well above 10 percent over the last five years. Besides the North Sea market, West German companies are concentrating on Southeast Asia and China offshore markets. The West German offshore companies include: ? Major shipyards such as HDW and Blohm & Voss with a comprehensive range of mobile exploration platforms, special-purpose vessels ranging from crane ships to launch barges, deck structures for platforms, accommodation and production modules, and icebreaking vessels of all types. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret ? Smaller size shipyards, such as the Martin Jansen and Paul Lindenau yards, with special-purpose ves- sels such as supply vessels of all types, diving support vessels, and geophysical and research vessels. ? Companies in the materials technology sector, such as Thyssen and VDM, with steel grades for all environments including polar conditions. ? Mechanical engineering companies with specialized equipment including Bruker in underwater technol- ogy, MTU propulsion and drive systems, and Paguag in flexible pipelines. electronics, including AEG-Telefunken. The Federal German Ministry for Research and Technology has provided substantial R&D funds to West German companies in the area of the German ocean engineering industry. In particular, the German Government has been interested in developing: ? Floating and stationary plants for the production and processing of oil and natural gas from marginal offshore deposits. ? Equipment, vehicles, processes, and services in the field of underwater inspection, maintenance, and repair of offshore installations. ? Development of vessels for special offshore duties such as seismic survey and Arctic supply. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Appendix B Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology, a as of 1985 Exploration equipment b Seismic survey vessel c Burrand DD Co. Ferguson Industries Ltd. Canada Hollming Finland Trosvik Verkstad Norway Marine streamer cable,- Sercel/CGG France hydrophones Data acquisition c and recording systems Oceano France Prakla Seismos West Germany GECO Norway Geophysical Systems Ltd. Sercel Prakla Seismos Deregt Special Cable Oyo Corporation CIMSA United Kingdom France West Germany Netherlands Japan France Sercel/CGG France Prakla Seismos West Germany GECO Norway Gravity meters I and Scintrex Ltd. Canada magnetometers c Sercel/CGG France 0-yo Corporation Japan Oceanics Equipment Services United Kingdom Qubit Pty United Kingdom a Companies comprise key foreign manufacturers or service organi- zations. US foreign subsidiaries are not included unless noted. e All exploration, drilling, and production equipment is subject to US export controls. Other equipment and technology may be under US export controls. c Controlled by COCOM. Built Hollis Hedberg, world famous seismic vessel. Specializes in survey/research vessels. Focus on development of technology and vessels for the Arctic environment. Specializes in seismic vessel conversion. Recently completed work on one of the most advanced seismic vessels in Europe for a US company. Built vessels for GECO. Built vessels for GECO. Manufacturer for Campagnie General Geophysique (CGG). Major competitor of US geophysical companies. Subsidiary of Det Norske Veritas, partly owned by government. Major competitor of US companies. Major competitor of US companies. Subsidiary of Thomson-CSF. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Side scan sonar and Huntec subbottom profiling systems Thomson-CSF Oretech Simrad GEC Geoteam UK Ltd. Huntec UDI Group Bruel & Kjaer SFIM BEVAC GEC Instrumentation CGG Prakla Seismos GECO Geomex Racal Geophysics Wimpol Drilling rigs-onshore Drilling equipment (derricks, draw- works, drillstring, kellies, drill collar, stabilizers, tool joints) Cardwell Dreco Foremost Tam rock Oy C. Dielmann Saltzgitter Massarenti Industrialexport Equipetrol Farr Foremost Lavalin Brissonneau & Lotz Drillstar SMF International Blohm & Voss F. Lautert France Netherlands Norway United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom Denmark France Switzerland United Kingdom France West Germany Norway Singapore United Kingdom United Kingdom Canada Canada Canada Finland West Germany West Germany Italy Romania Brazil Canada Canada Canada France France France West Germany West Germany Developed new computer-aided sonar mapping system. Major contract with China. Subsidiary of French company Comex. Major East Bloc supplier of all types of drilling and production equipment. Worldwide supplier; largest industrial company in Austria; state owned. Arctic drilling equipment development. Major French producer of range of on- shore/offshore equipment. Major manufacturer of drilling and pro- duction support equipment. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Drill pipe and tubing (most of these companies also produce casing and I pipe) Nuovo Pignone Apoi Iron Japan Steel Industria Del Hierro Maritime Hydraulics Industrialexport Microdrill Drilling & Services Hunting SMF International Tsukamoto Seike Sandvik Mannesmann Diamant-Boart Cristal Sandvik Drilling & Services J. K. Smit Unicorn Industries ne Voest-Alpine SMF International Usinor Hoesch Rohr Mannessmann Saltzgitter Thyssen VDM Breda Fucine Dalminc Italy Japan Japan Mexico Norway Part of EFIM Group; worldwide sales including Libya and USSR. Largest non-US supplier offering drilling package deliveries from a single manufacturer. Romania Sweden United Kingdom United Kingdom Most UK drilling equipment based on US technology. France Japan Sweden West Belgium France Sweden United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom Austria France France West Germany West Germany Major international supplier of speciality steels. Major international supplier of speciality steels. Proposed merger with Sacilor will create world's second-largest steel company. Leading French supplier; annual pipe out- put 15 million metric tons. Major supplier to the USSR. R&D work for using steel in Arctic conditions. Total raw steel capacity of 5.5 million tons. West Germany West Germany Major steel producer. West Germany World leader in nickel anticorrosion technology. Italy Italy New tube mill produces quality flowline piping. Plant in Argentina. Total raw steel capacity I million tons. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,- as of 1985 (continued) Kawasaki Japan Raw steel capacity of 20 million tons. Nippon Steel Japan World's largest steelmaker. Raw steel ca- pacity of 56 million tons. NKK Japan Leader in high-corrosion-resistant casing and tubing. Raw steel capacity of 25 million tons Sumitomo Japan 1981 production of 3.3 million tons of tubular goods. Sandvik Sweden Sour oil and gas specialist. British Steel United Kingdom State monopoly. Controls UK steel production. blowout preventers) Voest Alpine Austria Well completion equipment (packers, valves, mandrels) Japan Japan Equipetrol Brazil Site Oil Canada Manufactures copies of US equipment. Domine France 80 percent owned by ELF; primary ce- menting and floating equipment. Geopetrol France Wireline production. Weir Gas lift systems (see sections on gas turbines, compressors, and engineering services) Well logging equipment Flopetrol France MWD systems Geoservices France France France Operates in 60 countries worldwide. World leader in well logging and related technologies controls. 90 percent of world market. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Offshore equipment Offshore drilling and production platforms-design Offshore drilling and production platforms -construction SMF International Eastman Whipstock C. G. Doris Serete Sofresid ETPM Technip Total EN I-Saipem ENI-Snamprogetti Tecnomare Hitachi Zosen Mitsui Mitsubishi Gusto Engineering Kvaerner Engineering Articulated Columns R. J. Brown Taywood-Santa Fe France United Kingdom France France France France France France Italy Italy Italy Japan Japan Japan Netherlands Norway Norway Developed the 1,000 MBD Upper Zakum field in Abu Dhabi. Pipelaying/heavy lift specialists beside steel platform work. Building year-round drilling rig for Norsk Hydro for operations off northern Norway. Longtime relations with USSR. 60 percent owned by IHC of Switzerland. Specialist in floating and fixed platforms, offshore loading systems and subsea systems. Develops new deepwater drilling and pro- duction designs. Joint venture with EMH of France. World leader in semisubmersible construction. United Kingdom United Kingdom Leading UK management and engineering company. John Brown Engineering United Kingdom Verolme Rauma Repola Brazil Finland Ateliers et Chantiers Bouygues CFEM EMH-Spie ETPM France France France France France Building jack-up rigs for Soviets with an 80-percent Brazilian content. Leading supplier of offshore drilling rigs to USSR. Develops Takula oilfield offshore Angola. Part of Usinor State Group. Articulated column specialist. Worldwide offshore development since 1965. Member of Amrep group; leading builder of conventional jackets. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Company Blohm & Voss Subsidiary of Thyssen, which is the largest private steel manufacturer in Europe. HDW Member of Salzgitter Group; largest ship- yard in West Germany. Joint venture with Howard Doris, United Kingdom, for design assistance. Mazagan India Ardiguna Indonesia Harland & Wolff Ireland Fabricating world's first single well oil production system for BP. Private fabricator; working on Libyan Bouri field. Fincantieri Italy Micoperi Italy Hitachi Zosen Japan Building harsh environment semisubmer- sible drilling rig for Norsk Hydro and Arctic offshore island for ESSO, Canada. IHI Japan Kawasaki Japan Mitsubishi Japan Mitsui Japan Joint venture with Brown and Root and Highlands Fabricators to design and build floating production systems. Developed Bombay High with ONGC- India. NKK Japan Sumitomo Japan Boeles Netherlands HCG Netherlands Drilling and production modular development. Member of Aker engineering group; capa- ble of building largest platforms in North Sea. Articulated Columns Norway Norwegian Contractors Norway Constructed world's first concrete plat- form structure; joint venture of three larg- est Norwegian engineering companies. Building six deepwater drilling platforms for US company. Building one of world's largest drilling platforms; operating range is 80 to 600 meters of water. Samsung South Korea Far East Livingston Singapore Builder for USSR; joint ventures in China. Promet Singapore Major Asian offshore group. Wah Chang Singapore Joint venture in China. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Offshore drillships Subsea production systems Gotaverken Arendal Sweden Constructing Sun's Balamoral platform. SKF Sweden Highland Fabricators United Kingdom Built Conoco's TLP Hutton platform; 50 percent owned by Brown & Root, United Kingdom, 50 percent by Wimpey. RGC Offshore United Kingdom Most successful UK yard, member of Tra- falgar-Davy Corporation Group. Scott Lithgow United Kingdom Subsidiary of Trafalgar. Trafalgar-Davy Offshore United Kingdom Marginal field, harsh environment specialist. Rauma-Repola Finland Built three large Arctic offshore explora- tion drillships for USSR. Paul Lindenau West Germany Subsidiary of HDW-Germany's largest shipbuilder (owned by Salzgitter). Gusto Engineering Netherlands Rijns Verolome Netherlands Cintra-Alcatel France Thomson-CSF France Mitsui Kongsberg Vapenfabrik Norway World leader in the manufacture of acous- tical and dynamic positioning equipment. Simrad Norway Hydroacoustic positioning specialist. GEC PLC United Kingdom Major worldwide supplier of electronic/ electrical equipment. ACB France Manufactured Grondin subsea station for ELF; part of Alsthom-Atlantique Group. Cameron Gmbh West Germany Cameron subsidiary that markets high- pressure equipment with US technology acquired prior to 1978 (no export license required). HCG Netherlands Steel fabrication for the offshore industry. Kongsberg Vapenfabrik Norway Fabrication for NE Frigg Development; West Troll work for Royal-Dutch Shell. Cameron licensee. Kvaerner Brug Norway Joint venture with US company to develop new subsea technology. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Page Europe Italy Nippon Electric Kongsberg Vapenfabrik Kvaerner Brug Marconi Avionics Remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) ~ International Submarine and manned submersibles Bruker ZF Herion Gaymarine Micoperi Mitsui Necos Bennex Subsea Offshore UDI Group Slingsby Heavy lift derricks/barges Kone Oy Bouygues ETPM Saipem Micoperi Gusto Engineering Heerema United Kingdom Systems manufactured in Canada for use offshore Brazil. United Kingdom Manufacturing for Texaco's Highlander field; major British effort. France Develops new subsea control methods. France Major R&D capability, French military equipment supplier. Norway Working on Royal-Dutch Shell develop- Sweden United Kingdom United Kingdom Canada West Germany West Germany Japan Netherlands ment of West Troll. Leader in minisubmarine design. Equipment for Italian Navy and Italian offshore companies. Deep-manned-minisubmarine development. Norway Leading underwater specialist. Marketing world's first mass-produced subsea robot in 600-meter operating range. Sweden World-class expertise in underwater Sweden technology. United Kingdom UK subsidiary of Bennex. United Kingdom United Kingdom United Kingdom Finland Builds cranes designed by Gusto Engineer- ing for USSR. France France Operator-heavy lift/pipelaying vessel. Italy Operator-derrick/pipelaying vessel. Italy Major competitor in heavy lift industry. Netherlands Designer of cranes for USSR. Netherlands World leader in heavy lift industry; Balder and Hermod cranes critical to North Sea development. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Mitsui Japan Nippon Steel Japan Sumitomo Japan Daewoo South Korea Hyundai South Korea Samsung South Korea NPCC United Arab Operator: government involvement. Emirates ACB France Offshore design specialist. Spie Offshore France Marginal field development specialist. Technip France Work in China FOR study of Daqing field and in the Soviet Union. Lurgi West Germany Process engineering speciality. ENI-Saipem construction specialists worldwide. International offshore contractor develop- ing Libya's Bouri field. Major Italian state offshore engineering and design company, developing advanced ROV designs and Arctic technology in cooperation with Veritec of Norway: sub- sea specialist. Chiyoda Japan Process engineering speciality. Hitachi Zosen Japan IHI Japan JGC Japan Process engineering speciality. Mitsubishi Japan Mitsui Japan Nigata Engineering Japan Toyo Japan CF Braun Kuwait Protech Netherlands Kongsberg Engineering Norway Platform and subsea engineering services. Kvaerner Engineering Norway Articulated column and subsea design specialist. United Kingdom Founded in United States; major company in United Kingdom and worldwide. Davy Mckee United Kingdom John Brown United Kingdom Matthew Hall United Kingdom Experienced offshore contractors. North Sea work. United Kingdom Major offshore project management company. United Kingdom One of Europe's largest engineering and construction groups. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Transmission equipment Gas turbines Thomson-CSF France EB Communications Norway Controls 10 percent of world's Earth sta- tion satellite communications market. Norway United Kingdom World's leading offshore communications specialist. United Kingdom Satellite communications development. Norsk Marconi Plessey France's largest shipbuilder and leading manufacturer of electromechanical equipment. Parent company went bankrupt. Core divi- sions moved to state-owned Framatome and Usinor. Alsthom-Atlantique Creusot-Loire Hispano Suiza AEG Kanis ENI-Nuovo Pignone Fiat Aviazone Hitachi IHI Mitsubishi Mitsui Thomassen Italy Japan Japan Japan Japan Netherlands Electric. Largest European producer of gas turbines for mechanical drive application. Outputs from 5,400 to 29,500 HP. GE licensee. Produces turbines under license from Rus- ton-United Kingdom--using UK- and US-manufactured components. Manufacturing associate of General Electric. Marketing high-efficiency KG3 turbines; Kongsberg has 30-percent worldwide mar- ket share in 1,000- to 3,300-KW range. Manufacturing associate of General Electric. Sweden Sales in Norwegian sector of North Sea. Switzerland Electrical equipment manufacturer. Major competitor to General Electric worldwide. Asea Stal-Laval BBC Brown Boveri Switzerland Specializes in lightweight gas turbines. United Kingdom Joint venture between Cooper and Rolls- Royce. United Kingdom No relationship with General Electric United States. United Kingdom 50-50 joint venture between GEC United Kingdom and Rolls-Royce. United Kingdom Manufacturing associate of General Electric. Sulzer Cooper Rolls United Kingdom World famous for RB 211, Avon, and Spey industrial gas turbines. United Kingdom Ruston is largest supplier to North Sea market. GEC GEC-Rolls John Brown Rolls-Royce Ruston Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued Creusot-Loire Dresser-France Hispano Suiza Atlas Copco Bremer Vulkan Demag M. A. N. ENI-Nuovo Pignone Japan Steel Works Thomassen AS. Kongsberg Asea Stal-Laval AEG Kanis Cooper-Rolls John Brown Instrumentation and control (includes ACEC SCADA systems for onshore/ offshore CETT use) Cit Alcutel Dominates air gun market for marine seismic work. West Germany West Germany West Germany Japan Japan Japan Netherlands Norway Sweden Major supplier of small gas compressors. Major worldwide oilfield machinery and process equipment manufacturer. Manufactures US-licensed compressors. Leading worldwide manufacturer of oil- field machinery. West Germany Belgium France Thomson-CSF France AEG Telefunken West Germany Siemens West Germany Matra Japan Steel Works Japan Yokagama Japan Autronica Norway Elektro Union Group Norway Developed continuous monitoring system for beam pumping units. Major manufacturer. Joint venture with A. S. Kongsberg for North Sea sales. Specialist in manufacture of minicom- puters for technical applications. Joint venture with EB Communications for North Sea sales. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Foreign Availability of Oil and Gas Equipment and Technology,a as of 1985 (continued) Pipeline inspection equipment Hunting United Kingdom Kent Process Control United Kingdom Marex United Kingdom Roxby United Kingdom Taylor Instrument United Kingdom Wimpol United Kingdom Premaberg Gmbh Austria Guardian Canada Trans-Canada Canada Pematiknik West Germany Nippon Kokan KK Japan Growing competitor in oilfield tubular inspection. Plans to enter pigging market. British Gas Corporation United Kingdom Subsidized by UK Government. State-of- the-art equipment. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6 Secret Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/17: CIA-RDP97R00694R000500090001-6