CASTRO'S REACH INTO THE THIRD WORLD: THE CUBAN ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE PROGRAM

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May 1, 1985
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 "~ *, Directorate of 9C 1 Secret Castro's Reach Into the Third World: The Cuban Economic Assistance Program Secret GI 85-10134 May 1985 Copy 219 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Directorate of Secret 25X1 Intelligence Castro's Reach Into the Third World: The Cuban Economic Assistance Program This paper was prepared b~ Office of Global issues. It was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Instability and Insurgency Center, OGI, Secret G185-10134 May 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 25X1 Secret Summary Information available as of 30 March 1985 was used in this report. Western government programs Castro's Reach Into 25X1 the Third World: The Cuban Economic Assistance Program Over the last decade Fidel Castro has made Cuba's economic assistance program an important vehicle for exercising influence in the Third World. Some 20,000 Cuban technicians operate within 32 non-Communist LDCs, and Cuba hosts more than 26,000 students from about 75 Third World countries. In terms of technicians abroad, this program is larger than most Cuba's rapid success in building this major program is because of several factors: ? The Castro regime has been able to respond quickly to politically favorable developments in Third World countries. For example, within a month of the Sandinista's victory, Cuban personnel were arriving in Nicaragua. ? Havana gets its foot in the door by playing on its Third World credentials and starting with minimal, low-key forms of assistance-for example, scholarships to attend Cuban schools. Cuba has successfully exploited its cultural heritage by placing approximately two-thirds of its overseas civilian technicians in 10 Spanish- or Portuguese-speaking countries. ? The Cuban program is designed to meet the needs of many Third World countries. Cuba concentrates on providing the services of personnel often in short supply in most LDCs-teachers, doctors, and construction workers. The Cubans generally require that recipient countries pick up only the local costs of Cuban personnel, plus transportation expenses. Among Communist aid donors, only the Chinese program is comparable in terms of generosity{ Because Cuba's assistance program relies heavily on the provision of expertise that it has in abundance and incurs almost no hard currency expenditures, it presents only a minimal drain on the Cuban economy and is a cost-effective vehicle for establishing a substantial Cuban presence in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Important payoffs of this presence include: ? Ideological influence in several Third World planning ministries. The Cubans have placed 1,000 to 1,500 technicians in the ministries and planning agencies of more than 20 Third World countries. In Angola, Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Sao Tome and Principe, South Yemen, and Tanzania, Havana has been able to place substantial numbers of these experts in decisionmaking positions for extended periods of time. iii Secret GI 85-10134 May 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret 25X1 ? A long-term investment in Third World influence through the education in Cuba of thousands of LDC students. Most of these individuals are beginning to return home, many after almost a decade in Cuban schools. As they advance in their careers, the possibilities for Cuban access and influence will increase significantly. ? The development and consolidation of a number of leftist regimes. Activities in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nicaragua account for most Cuban assistance. In Nicaragua, Cuba's economic assistance has made significant contributions to that country's military preparedness, and in recent years has provided 60 percent of its rural teaching force and 10 percent of its entire educational corps. ? Political footholds in many Third World countries-particularly in Africa. Modest programs in such countries as Burkina, Ghana, and Guyana probably will expand in the next few years. ? Hard currency earnings. From countries that have substantial oil reve- nues-Angola, Algeria, Iraq, and Libya-Cuba charges for the provision of technical personnel; such fees totaled $100 million last yea The Cuban program is an important complement to those of the other Communist Bloc countries. By concentrating on the provision of technical personnel at the grassroots, Cuban aid adds an extra dimension to the efforts of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Although the Soviet Union does not bankroll the Cuban program and formal high-level coordination with other assistance efforts is the exception rather than the rule, Cuba oc- casionally supplies technicians for Bloc-sponsored projects and is involved in the limited coordination of activities in the fiel 25X1 Despite the program's successes, translating economic assistance into durable Cuban influence in the Third World has been difficult. Many Cuban economic technicians-construction and medical workers-are neither well positioned nor well prepared to act as political emissaries, and LDC dissatisfaction with Cuban personnel surfaces frequently. Further, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Cecret many Third World governments approach their dealings with a "buyer's market" mentality and seek to maximize Cuban aid while resisting Cuban political leverage Finally, internal political developments and external factors Chile, Grenada, Iraq, Jamaica, and Somalia beyond Cuba's control have in recent years forced Cuban pullouts from Nonetheless, Castro seems satisfied with the results of his economic assistance program, and we expect that he will continue to search actively for new opportunities to use aid for political benefit. Significant expansion of the economic assistance program depends largely upon the prospects for new Cuban-supported revolutions. Excluding such developments, we see only modest opportunities for expansion of the Cuban program-with Havana taking advantage of new opportunities-primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the future of some currently large contingents becomes more uncertain. We anticipate that Cuban hard currency needs will make Havana more aggressive in exploiting opportunities for providing technical personnel on a commercial basis in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin Americal Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Castro's Reach Into the Third World: The Cuban Economic Assistance Program The direction of Cuba's foreign policy-including the provision of economic assistance-begins and ends with Fidel Castro. Castro's need to sustain his self- image as a successful revolutionary is a primary motivator of his international activism. Up through the 1960s, Castro focused on sponsoring armed expe- ditions abroad to try to overthrow Latin American regimes. More recently, he has broadened his ap- proach to include more internationally acceptable ways to prove the depth of his revolutionary commit- Although Castro's commitment to Third World aid has ideological roots, other factors are important as well: ? Castro proudly claims Cuba is the preeminent Third World country in education and public health, and its economic assistance program advertises these and other accomplishments of the revolution in a positive manner. From confrontation to cooperation in the early 1970s: ? International legitimization through good will. ? Quest for broader diplomatic and trade relations. ? Minor emergency relief from natural disasters for Honduras, Nicaragua, and Peru. ? More opportunities for small numbers of personnel in Africa. ? Less than 1,500 Cuban civilians in 11 Third World countries in 1975. ? Castro also hopes the assistance program will main- tain a sense of revolutionary mission and divert popular attention away from domestic problems. Castro has reminded technicians going overseas that their work is "a moral duty, a revolutionary duty, a duty of principle, a duty of conscience, an ideologi- cal duty." ? Castro undoubtedly expects that economic assis- tance will encourage the development of pro-Cuban regimes and policies. Cuba sends its technical services personnel abroad partly to help with Cuba's foreign debt difficulties. ? In several countries where Havana charges for its technicians, the program helps satisfy Cuban for- eign exchange needs. Castro openly admits that Revolutionary struggle in the 1960s: ? The only road to socialism is insurrection. ? Create "two, three, many Vietnams" in Latin America. ? Armed expeditions. ? A handful of medical and agricultural personnel in a few African countries. ? International isolation. Rapid expansion in the second half of the 1970s: ? Angola, then Mozambique, and Ethiopia in Africa. ? Jamaica, Grenada, and finally Nicaragua in Latin America. ? Large-scale teaching and medical contingents. ? Construction for profit in Libya and Iraq. ? Wide proliferation of small-scale aid to Africa. Setbacks and new opportunities since 1980: ? Departure from Jamaica, Grenada, Suriname. ? Rebel attacks in Nicaragua and Angola. ? War-related removal of most personnel from Iraq. ? Repayments problems with Angola and Libya. ? Minor setbacks, yet seven new recipients in Africa. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Ten years ago Havana had less than 1,500 economic assistance personnel in only 11 countries (figure 1). As favorable political changes occurred in the LDCs-a few with the aid of Cuban military assistance-Cuba moved with impressive speed to help consolidate these regimes through economic assistance relationships. From 1974 through 1979 Havana sent thousands of civilian technicians to Angola and-in rapid succes- sion-to Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Nicaragua. Working relationships were also forged with Libya and Iraq. By 1981, 23,000 Cuban technicians were operating in 28 LDCs Since then, Havana has established a new presence in six more LDCs, but the program has also experienced a number of setbacks. Today, there are about 4,000 fewer Cuban civilians abroad than there were four years ago. The newly elected Seaga government asked all of the estimated 650 Cuban technicians to depart Jamaica in 1981. In the Middle East, the Iran-Iraq war caused Havana to pull from Iraq about 90 percent of its estimated 3,500 workers. The ouster of Cuban technicians from Grenada in 1983 was accom- panied by Suriname's rejection of what was then a promising relationship with Havana. In Nicaragua, the phasing out of some teachers, plus age and gender restrictions begun in response to rebel actions, and the threat of a US invasion caused the Cuban civilian presence last year to drop by almost 1,000 from its high of 6,200 three years ago Last year the Cuban economic assistance program placed almost 20,000 technicians in 32 non-Commu- nist Third World countries (table 1). More than three- fourths were African states; only Nicaragua and, to a lesser extent, Guyana and Mexico hosted significant numbers of Cuban technicians in the Western Hemi- sphere. Angola topped the list with an estimated 6,000 Cuban civilians, Nicaragua had 5,300, and Libya had about 3,500. Ethiopia and Mozambique also had substantial, but smaller, contingents. Although Havana charged fees for about one-half of its person- nel, these assistance-for-hire technicians were present in only four countries. effort has focused on the provision of technical serv- ices, as opposed to material or financial aid. In fact, the Cuban program sponsors more economic techni- cians abroad than most Western governments. We estimate that less than 25 percent of Cuban aid has been grants of capital goods and other materials. Usually, recipient countries procure the materials Cuban technicians use, often from Cuba itself. Cuba has made substantial grants of material aid only to Ethiopia, Grenada, and Nicaragua-the poorer coun- tries it considers important targets. Even in these countries, the amounts and types of such aid repre- sent, by Western standards, only token commitments and consist of such items as light industrial facilities, supplies for construction projects, fishing boats, breeding stock and equipment for animal husbandry centers, school materials, foodstuffs, clothing, and medical supplies. It is even more rare for the Cubans to provide credits. We are aware of only two in- stances-Nicaragua and Grenada-where Havana financed projects, $50 million and $11 million, respec- tively. Moreover, earlier this year Castro announced Cuba would convert the Nicaraguan loan to a grant. 25X1 More than three-fourths of the Cuban economic technicians in the Third World work in three occupa- tional categories: public health, education, and con- struction (figure 2). Cuban expertise in each of these sectors is rather basic. Although many LDCs appeal for specialists, most of the doctors among the more than 2,000 Cuban medical personnel abroad are general practitioners. Moreover, about 10 percent are students who are completing their internship require- ment while serving abroad. In the education field, most Cuban teachers teach at the primary and sec- ondary levels or conduct adult literacy training. At Third World universities they often teach practical subjects such as agronomy, veterinary science, engi- neering, and general medicine. The limited skills of Havana's construction personnel usually restrict their activities to manual labor on large industrial projects and simple construction work, such as housing, schools, roads, bridges, and small-scale irrigation systems Primarily Technical Services Unlike the assistance programs of both Western donors and other Communist nations, the Cuban Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Figure 1 Expansion of Cuban Economic Technicians Into the Third World Cape M VerJer I Minici0ns ulfcrcd +incc 1983 1980 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Table 1 Cuban Economic Technicians in the Third World, 1984 Total 19,045 Africa 12,925 North Africa 3,865 Algeria 275 Libya 3,50-0-- Mauritania 15 Western Sahara 75 Sub-Saharan Africa 9,060 Angola 6,000 Benin 30 Botswana 10 Burkina 15 Burundi 20 Cape Verde 15 Congo 140 Equatorial Guinea 15 Ethiopia 1,100 Ghana 40 Guinea 240 Guinea-Bissau 75 Estimated peak num minimum of one month, rounded to the nearest Madagascar 35 Mali 10 Mozambique 900 Nigeria 5 Sao Tome and Principe 225 Seychelles 20 Tanzania 150 Uganda 15 Latin America 5,420 Bolivia 5 Ecuador 5 Guyana 60 Mexico 50 Nicaragua 5,300 Middle East 600 Iraq 400 Sout h Yemen 200 South As ia 100 Afg hanistan 100 The other one-fourth of the Cuban technicians per- form a variety of advisory services; most work on agricultural problems in remote areas. Typically, only a few Cubans work directly for middle- and high-level decisionmakers in Third World ministries and plan- ning agencies; but in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nicaragua the number of Cuban technicians in planning agencies is substantia Training LDC Students in Cuba Havana also invites large numbers of Third World students to Cuba, usually on fully paid scholarships. We estimate the number of students-from more than 75 countries-at more than 26,000 (table 2). The program is highly focused geographically: about three-fourths of all foreign students in Cuba come from Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Namibia, and Nicaragua.' Five other African countries, as well as South Yemen, currently have 500 or more students in Cuba (figure Like the rest of the Cuban economic assistance effort, the student program accelerated only in the late 1970s. A large part of the growth-total Third World enrollment has tripled in the last 10 years-is attrib- utable to the establishment of schools on the so-called Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Figure 2 Sectoral Distribution of Cuban Economic Technicians in LDCs, 1984 Percent Total technicians: 19,0(R) Isle of Youth, just south of western Cuba. Currently, 21 of the island's 60 schools are set aside for foreign- ers; each school can accommodate about 600 students for eight years at a time and the curriculum centers on the blending of academic training and agricultural labor. The first foreign students arrived there in 1977; last year there were some 12,000 elementary and high school students from 11 Third World countries] Postsecondary foreign students in Cuba enroll in Cuban universities (especially the University of Ha- vana), technical schools operated by government min- istries, and schools run by the party and associated political organizations. The academic and technical programs typically deal with such common Third World problems as basic education, public health, agriculture, and infrastructure development. Up to 500 students are enrolled in programs that emphasize ideology, political organization, journalism, and propaganda Cuban economic assistance complements other Com- munist Bloc activities in the LDCs. Generally, Havana sends people, and larger Bloc programs finance more expensive and capital-intensive projects. Havana has specialized in educational assistance- Third World students constitute almost 1 percent of the total student population in Cuba. Only Havana places large teaching contingents in individual LDCs. Several Third World countries-Angola and Nicara- gua are the best examples-have substantially more Cuban than other Bloc technicians Some coordination of Cuban activities with other Bloc programs occurs as well. Havana has supplied labor for Hungarian and Bulgarian projects in Nicaragua and last year counseled Sofia on setting up an eco- nomic cooperation commission with Managua. In Africa, Cuban personnel in recent years have worked jointly with the East Germans and Bulgarians. . We believe that Castro uses his assistance program to demon- strate to Moscow that its support of Cuba is a worthwhile investment 25X1 25X1 There is little evidence that the USSR bankrolls Cuban economic assistance efforts or that Cuban activities are planned in Moscow. Havana's program does not need much outside help because it is a low- cost operation. Most of Cuba's foreign projects re- quire only the simple technologies and skills indige- 25X1 nous to Cuba. Although Cuba's substantial domestic investment in public health and education-which enables Castro to send thousands of teachers and doctors abroad-would have been impossible without funds derived from Soviet trade subsidies, we believe 25X1 t Moscow's. casional friction between the Soviets and Cubans on aid issuesF7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Table 2 Third World Students in Cuba, 1984 Total 26,220 Latin America 6,405 Africa 18,635 Antigua and Barbuda 15 North Africa 845 Argentina 10 Algeria 5 Bahamas, The 5 Libya 100 Belize 35 Morocco 5 Bolivia 10 Tunisia 5 Brazil S Western Sahara 730 Chile 5 Sub-Saharan Africa 17,790 Colombia 10 Angola 5,000 Costa Rica 5 Benin 135 Dominica 35 Botswana 15 Dominican Republic 10 Burundi 15 Ecuador 5 Cameroon 5 Grenada 150 Cape Verde 50 Guatemala 5 Congo 730 Guyana 200 Equatorial Guinea 15 Haiti S Ethiopia 3,300 Honduras 10 Gambia, The 30 Jamaica 125 Ghana 720 Mexico 20 Guinea 300 Nicaragua 5,500 Guinea-Bissau 675 Panama 50 Lesotho 5 Peru 25 Madagascar 30 St. Lucia 25 Mali 50 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 20 Mauritius 5 Suriname 95 Mozambique 4,000 Uruguay 15 Namibia 1,290 Venezuela 10 Nigeria 125 Middle East 1,050 Rwanda 40 Bahrain 5 Sao Tome and Principe 300 Iran 5 Seychelles 20 Jordan 10 Sierra Leone 10 Lebanon 20 South Africa (ANC) 20 North Yemen 5 Sudan 5 Oman 10 Tanzania 500 PLO 400 Uganda 200 South Yemen 570 Zaire 10 Syria 25 Zambia 50 South Asia 115 Zimbabwe 140 Afghanistan 85 E 15 B l d h urope ang a es 5 Malta 5 India 10 Portugal 5 Nepal 5 Spain 5 Pakistan 5 Sri Lanka 5 Excludes students attending courses of less III- duration Numbers are rounded to the nearest Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Figure 3 Third World Countries With Students in Cuba, 1984 500 and ahovc less than 500 reportedly led Qadhafi to give preferential Political considerations often join with economic reali- ties to make Cuba an attractive source of economic assistance to Third World countries. Political sympa- thies underlie most of Havana's success in creating aid-based ties to the Third World. Within four months of the leftist Rawlings coup in 1982, for example, Ghana signed the initial aid agreement with Cuba that Havana had pursued for several years without success. In the absence of strong ideological bonds, however, Third World countries often cite the promotion of South-South solidarity or nonaligned credentials as the driving factor. Some leaders openly admire Cuba's capabjlity for activism in the Third World. Such reasons, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 -s The Schemes Cube consideration to Cuba in the granting of commercial construction contracts in Libya. A number of Third World leaders have asked for Cuban technicians- usually teachers-to help consolidate their domestic political position through indoctrination of the masses, Among economic factors, Cuba offers assistance well suited to Third World economies and charges little or nothing for it. In the field of education, Havana specializes in delivering basic instruction, such as literacy training, to remote areas. Most Cuban medi- cal technicians provide routine care to rural populaces that usually have infrequent access to medical ser- vices. In construction work, Havana focuses on simple housing, school, and road projects Cuba has used military assistance-mainly personnel and training support-to Third World regimes in tandem with its economic assistance program. Such assistance helps strengthen existing Cuban relations with recipient countries through their military estab- lishments. In Angola, Ethiopia, and Nicaragua, where Cuban support contributes to the survival of Marxist regimes, the military program is more im- portant than the economic progra~ The military effort places more than twice as many personnel abroad as the economic program, but only in about one-half as many countries. Last year the Cubans had more than 43,000 soldiers and advisers in the Third World. Angola is by far the largest recipient, followed by Ethiopia and Nicaragua. A better perspective on the relative dimensions of the two programs, however, is revealed by the fact that, if Havana's estimated 35,000-plus military personnel were to return home from Angola, Cuban civilians in the Third World would outnumber their military counterparts by almost 3 to Cuban economic and military assistance often pro- ceed hand in hand, although many LDCs consider the acceptance of civilian aid a less controversial, and Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 These services appeal to financially strapped LDCs est possible price on the open marke charge. Cuba pays the salaries of its technicians in Cuban pesos, and the host country is obligated to provide the necessary materials and equipment, food, housing, a personal spending allowance, and local and international transportation. Among Communist aid donors, only the Chinese program is comparable in terms of generosity. In lieu of providing much materi- al assistance or financing, Havana often helps LDCs procure supplies for Cuban aid projects at the cheap- thus easier, step to take. The result is that Havana's economic program covers more countries. In the cases of Angola and Nicaragua, however, military aid preceded economic ties and helped bring to power regimes favorably disposed to close Cuban ties, in- cluding extensive economic assistance programs. The comparatively lower profile of Cuban economic assis- tance activities in general also makes them less subject to disruption than the military program. In Angola, for example, successful negotiations for the removal of Cuban personnel would still leave some 6,000 civilian technicians in place to advance 25X 1 i Occasionally, the distinction between Cuban military and economic assistance activities has become blurred. For example, some technicians in Angola appear to have a dual affiliation with Cuban military and civilian organizations. Similarly, in Nicaragua civilian construction workers have helped with the military's new Punta Huete airfield and soldiers have helped defend Cuban economic aid projects such as the Timal sugar refinery. 25X1 Havana also has some sociocultural advantages over a number of other aid donors. Cuba has successfully exploited cultural heritage by placing approximately two-thirds of its overseas civilian technicians in 10 Portuguese- or Spanish-speaking countries. Cubans also are more accustomed than Western or even other Bloc technicians to the deprivations often encountered while serving in an LDC. Several years ago, an Iraqi official claimed Baghdad wanted Cuban doctors be- cause they were the only ones willing to work outside the capital (see photos at the back Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Cuban Techniques for Creating an Aid Relationship The Cubans use a wide range of methods in the Third World to improve their image, expand bilateral com- munications, and thereby pave the way for a physical presence through aid ties. These techniques often rely on innocuous themes and so are difficult for even skeptical LDCs to spurn. Havana often begins by urging better diplomatic relations. A consular convention or other type of foreign relations cooperation agreement may follow. Simultaneously, Cuba usually seeks expanded trade ties, best of all in a trade agreement. A routine civil aviation agreement can ease bilateral travel. The next steps forward are low-level bilateral ex- changes in politically neutral realms. Friendship societies, sports, performing arts, and science ex- changes are favorites. A delegation may be invited to visit Cuba to witness the revolution's progress, the hoped-for result being a limited cooperation agree- ment. Last year at least one dozen LDCs without aid ties to Cuba signed agreements with Havana. Many of these accords include fully paid scholarships to Cuba for LDC trainees. If an LDC is judged to have immediate or special needs, Havana will focus its initial aid overtures on those areas. In the wake of natural disasters, Cuba has delivered small amounts of emergency relief aid We estimate that the cumulative value of Cuban economic aid to the Third World to date amounts to more than $400 million, averaging about $75 million annually in recent years (figure 4). This includes the value of service personnel sent overseas (based on domestic Cuban wage scales), donated goods and materials, and aid credits. These costs entail almost no hard currency expenditures, however, because Havana normally loses only the peso wages of its overseas personnel, plus whatever benefit their ser- vices would have produced at home. Moreover, Cuban to a number of countries-including Bolivia, Ecua- dor, Peru, and even Nicaragua prior to the fall of Somoza. Cuba has also provided personal security assistance to Third World leaders. We believe Cuba has supplied personnel to or provided training for the bodyguard or intelligence units of at least 12 Third World countries to date. Most recently, this type of assistance has helped stabilize pro-Cuban regimes in Burkina and Ghana. Last September Cuba may have made such an offer to Zimbabwe, a country with which it currently has only limited ties. Havana also seeks to advance its cause by offering another type of assistance to Third World leaders: it has provided personal medical services to leading individuals from at least six Third World countries. Establishment of a Joint Commission for Economic and Scientific- Technical Cooperation cements Cuban-LDC aid relationships and is the primary mechanism for decisions on the provision of Cuban personnel and other aid. The commission is a perma- nent body that schedules annual meetings. The entire range of activities is discussed, and a formal protocol specifying the upcoming year's program is signed. Cuba currently has joint commissions with 29 LDCs (table 3 hard currency contracts with a few LDCs more than offset the costs of its aid to the rest of the Third World. The large number of personnel trained as a result of the postrevolutionary concentration on the education, agriculture, and public health sectors pro- vides Castro with a ready supply of technicians. In addition to the cost of technical services, Cuba also contributes limited amounts of material aid to LDCs. Usually this consists either of products Cuba has an adequate supply of (cement or sugar, for example) or small amounts of goods such as medicine, food, or clothinj Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Table 3 Cuban-LDC Joint Commissions for Economic Cooperation Date Estab- lished Date Estab- lished Algeria 1979 Libya 1977 Angola 1976 Madagascar 1979 Argentina Burkina Cape Verde Chile Congo Ethiopia Ghana 1982 Seychelles 1980 Grenada 1979 a South Yemen 1977 Guinea Guinea 1979 Spain 1983 Guinea-Bissau 1978 Suriname 982 a 1982- Guyana 1975 India 1979 Uganda 1980 Iraq 1978 Western Sahara 1984 Jamaica 1975- Cuban economic assistance to Nicaragua, because of the substantial amount of material aid and large numbers of technicians, currently accounts for three- fourths of Havana's total aid to the Third World. Deliveries to Nicaragua to date include a 13,000-ton merchant ship; heavy machinery and other construc- tion materials; fishing boats; prefabricated housing plants; and agricultural, railroad, light industrial, and communications equipment. Cuban assistance to Ma- nagua is also costlier because Havana pays the inter- national transportation expenses, something it rarely does for other recipients. Two years ago during the annual rotation of its 2,000 teachers, Havana report- edly spent more than $20,000 to refuel its aircraft in Managua Cuba pays more than one-half of the personal spending money for its people in Nicaragua. We estimate this expense alone may amount to more than the equivalent of $1 million a year in Nicaraguan currend Secret 25X1 Figure 4 Cuban Economic Programs in the Third World, 1975-84 Hard currency charges to Algeria, Angola, Iraq, and Libya Cuba trys to limit the cost of educating foreign students by training them in Cuba. We estimate Cuba currently budgets the peso equivalent of about $10 million annually for this part of the program. Most students receive full scholarships that include tuition, educational materials, room and board, clothing, and medical care, but their home country must pay the hard currency expense of international transportation. accommoda- tions, food, and other provisions o their scholarships are rudimentary at best. Some scholarships also are funded by the Council for Mutual Economic Assis- tant 25X1 The Isle of Youth students-accounting for nearly 50 percent of the Third World students in Cuba-are less of a burden for Havana than those enrolled in 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 secret universities and technical schools, and may even be profitable. As much as one-third of the faculty at the Isle of Youth schools is provided by the participating Third World countries. The students are responsible for the basic maintenance of their facilities and are required to donate 18 hours of agricultural work every week in surrounding citrus groves, according to open sources. Cuban Education Minister Fernandez him- self has openly estimated that, after the initial three years of operation, the agricultural output from Isle of Youth schools more than offsets construction costs and operating expenses. 25X1 The assistance program has been instrumental in providing Castro with an impressive reach into the Third World-32 countries at present and 40 over the years. Cuban ties to many of these countries would exist even in the absence of economic assistance; the aid provides Cuba with a broader range of fronts on which to make an impact. Through the physical presence of technicians, Havana transmits its views on domestic and international issues to host-country na- tionals. Joint economic cooperation commissions bring together a wide range of middle- and high-level representatives from both sides. For Third World leaders, economic assistance is a tangible demonstra- tion of support that lends credibility to C125X1 rofes- Teachers potentially are Havana's best instruments for influencing the popular masses in the Third World. Castro has openly stated that Cuban educa- tional assistance is intended to exert long-term influ- ence in the Third World. In Angola last year, accord- ing to the Cuban press, Cuban teachers were active in 16 of the country's 18 provinces, teaching an estimat- ed 100,000 students. The Cubans incorporate leftist viewpoints in their lessons; the books they use reflect Cuban ideology and are often translations of Cuban texts. Open sources indicate Cuban educational ex- perts used the Cuban model to help shape the organi- zation of school systems in Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Nicaragua, South Yemen, and Tanzania 25X1 In addition to the estimated $400 million worth of aid that Cuba has provided to the Third World, it has also provided assistance for a fee. he Soviets-wanting Cuba to become more economically self-sufficient-have urged the Cubans to concentrate more on the parts of the program that generate revenues. Havana's activi- ties in Algeria, Angola, Iraq, and Libya-where the Cubans charge a hard currency fee-represent an economic plus. Payments from these oil producing countries-ranging from $4,800 to $18,000 a year per technician-go directly to Havana and more than cover associated costs. We estimate that Cuban charges to these countries last year totnlod nearly $100 million 25X1 Havana's actual annual receipts from these activities are difficult to quantify because of reported repay- ments problems. Both Angola and Libya have been reported to be substantially in arrears in recent years; a January announcement by President dos Santos indicates that Cuba probably has deferred Angolan payments for economic assistance. In any case, Havana is aggressively pursuing assistance-for-hire arrangements with at least four new clients, and we believe its hard currency earnings from such activities will increase. (~ Trade expansion and the reduction of domestic un- employment are additional benefits of Cuban pro- grams, whether performed without charge or for payment. Many Third World recipients of Cuban technicians buy the necessary materials and equip- ment from Havana, and Cuban officials incorporate the export of associated goods into their aid propos- als. Last year, E::~lgeria agreed to use a line of credit rom Japan to acquire construction machinery for Cubans to use in their Algerian activities as well as for projects in other countries, including Cuba. The dispatch of personnel overseas also slightly reduces domestic unemployment, a side benefit for a country whose rapidly growing work force is already under- employe Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Another important vehicle for influence is the esti- mated 1,000 to 1,500 Cuban technicians placed in the ministries and planning agencies of more than 20 Third World countries. Working with the recipient country's middle- and high-level professionals on a daily basis, they assist in economic planning, trade development, agricultural reorganization, mass com- munications, labor relations, and sociocultural affairs. In several countries-for example, Angola, Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Sao Tome and Principe, South Yemen, and Tanzania- Havana has been able to place substantial numbers of these experts in decisionmakin nositions for extended periods of tim Cuba has used several facets of its educational assis- tance program to try to convert routine ac2 technical trainin into influence. Third World stu- dents enrolled in Cuban programs receive political training. Moreover, at least some are reerniterl by Cubans also reportedly prefer individuals who hold progressive views without outwardly seeming political. On the Isle of Youth, Havana attempts to indoctri- nate thousands of younger, more impressionable stu- dents through a work-study regimen-unique among educational assistance programs-that can last for up to eight years for each student. The full impact of the Third World student program will not register for another five to 10 years. Most of the initial group of Isle of Youth students have been back in their home countries less than two years, and students with academic promise (those most likely to find influential jobs) have continued on into the Cuban university system. We already are aware of a limited number of Cuban successes. For example, Guyana's Agriculture and Health Ministers are both alumni of the Cuban educational system; Health Minister Van West-Charles, President Burnham's son-in-law, heads up the economic cooperation com- mission between the two countries. The son of former Jamaican Prime Minister Manley and a daughter of that country's former Minister of National Security attended the University of Havana. In Ghana, a key adviser to the ruling Provisional National Defense Council is a Cuban alumnu A variety of factors-ranging from inefficiencies in the aid effort to internal political factors-combine to set limits on translating Cuban economic assistance into durable influence in the Third World. For exam- ple, even in two of Havana's largest recipients, Angola and Mozambique, Castro has not been permitted as We estimate that less than one-half of the Cuban civilians in the Third World are good candidates to function as effective purveyors of pro-Cuban views. More than 40 percent of the Cuban overseas work force is made up of construction workers and, al- though their activities contribute to a favorable image of Cuba, they are only marginal instruments of influence: ? They often operate in sparsely populated areas and their daily routines leave little time for political activities. ? The workers live in self-contained camps close to their job sites, and ost are primarily motivated by materia rewards o "inter nationalist" tours of duty, such as overseas bonuses and greater access to consumer goods. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Nicaragua: A Cuban Success Story Cuban assistance to Nicaragua-totaling nearly $300 million to date-has contributed significantly to the consolidation of the Sandinista regime over the last five years. Havana's economic support has in- creased Managua's military strength. New or im- proved roads built by Cubans facilitate arms trans- fers and the deployment of troops to fight rebel forces. Similar benefits derive from Cuban improve- ments to the national railroad system. Cuban person- nel are helping with construction work on at least five airfields, including Punta Huete (soon to be the largest of such facilities in Central America), and construction reportedly will soon begin on a 600-bed military hospital in Managua. The Nicaraguans have used the merchant ship Monimbo-a gift from Cuba-to itnpnrt nrtillnrv WWII nntrnl hnntc frnr> Korea. avana last year converted nearly the entire corps of Cuban civilians in Nicaragua into a younger, mostly male, force with up-to-date military training and regular combat preparedness drills. The Cubans have also had a particularly strong impact on the Nicaraguan educational system. The large contingent of primary and secondary school teachers-which at one time constituted 60 percent of the rural teaching force and 10 percent of the coun- try's entire educational corps-has used texts with pro-Cuban Marxist content. Havana also has hosted well over 5,000 Nicaraguan students in extended academic programs, most of which include political subjects. Of this number, more than 1,000 are teen- agers on the Isle of Youth where, as one Nicaraguan ? Most of the construction workers are-as debrief- ings of Cubans at the Grenada airport under- scored-politically unsophisticated compared with other Cuban civilians abroad. Although the Castro regime screens other economic technicians-teachers, medical personnel, and techni- cal advisers-in terms of political qualifications, many of these technicians arc exert influence. For example, medical personnel typically confine them- selves to the provision of medical services. Although this can promote a positive impression of Cuba, student has openly explained, the work-study regi- men is "the implementation of the Leninist concept to form the new Soviet man. " In addition, Cuba has trained large numbers of Nicaraguans in shorter, vocational courses that have increased the country's pool of technical skills. Havana also has supplied higher level advisers to the Ministry of Education, who have probably helped reshape the overall organi- zation and direction of the national educational system Hundreds of Cuban personnel have been placed at the central decisionmaking level in nearly every other sector of Nicaraguan society. Through economic planning agreements, Cuban advisers probably have encouraged the gradual growth of state control of the economy. he Cubans have taught courses in Marxism to staff members of the Nicaraguan Public Administration Institute. articularly extensive Cuban involve- ment in the Nicaraguan communications system. These activities range from the installation of micro- wave and other kinds of equipment to the provision of critiques and recommendations on the national com- munications network. Close ties exist between the Cuban Communist Party and the Sandinista Nation- al Liberation Front, and we believe Cubans have advised on the development of Nicaraguan mass organizations. ndigenous populations sometimes resent e u Dan presence because they provide the technicians with food and lodging, and the Cuban medical skills often are severely limited. More- indicates that about three-fourths o the Cuban technicians who are not involved in public health, education, or construction work at the grassroots in a strictly technical capacity 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 The quality of its personnel and the terms under which Cuba provides aid frequently reduce the politi- cal mileage Havana is able to extract. In Ethiopia, the completion of one of Cuba's largest aid projects was held up for six months because Addis Ababa could not supply the necessary materials. Complaints about Cuban technicians are not uncommon. Although it is unusual for client dissatisfaction to lead to the remov- al of Cuban personnel, complaints can hamper the full development of the relations. A t ical example is in Burundi whey some Cuban medical technicians speak no French and the specialties of the doctors and nurses are incompatible. Over the years, a number of Third World recipients have characterized Cuban teachers as incompetent and too political. The Cuban requirement that LDCs bear the hard currency transportation expenses has caused at least one country-Tanzania-to refuse more than one-half of the scholarships and techni- cians called for in its annual coon ration agreement with Havana "buyer's market" mentality on the part of a number of recipient countries, works against the program's success. For example, we believe relations between Cuba and Mali suffered recently when Havana pres- sured Bamako to accept Cuban medical technicians. Despite years of assistance from Cuba, some Third World countries try to use the importance Havana attaches to its aid program as leverage to more favorable terms for Cuban assistance Burundi, Uganda, and Ghana are recent examples. Cuba occasionally finds itself in adversarial bargaining sessions, even with regimes in which it has invested a ant amount of time and resources Finally, developments beyond Havana's research can quickly erode gains from the resources expended in an aid program. Internal political dynamics or external factors over the years have forced Cuban pullouts from Chile, Grenada, Iraq, Jamaica, Somalia, and Suriname. More recently, domestic insurrections in Nicaragua and Angola have disrupted the implemen- tation of Cuban assistance LDC Students Sometimes Alienated The student program also has problems that may substantially reduce the amount of influence Havana expects to develop over time. Although Third World students often go to Cuba with preexisting leftist leanings, many others are alienated by the political indoctrination in their Cuban educations The physical labor requirements and lack of personal amenities reportedly also leave some students disenchanted with the Castro regime. Serious student problems-including riots-have plagued the Isle nf Yoll"17 rogram almost from its inceptio We believe Castro's personal motivations are as strong as ever and will continue to keep the program alive as long as he is in power. His strong desire to be a major actor on the world stage means that he is committed to the aid program, regardless of economic or other costs. We believe reverses in recent years may cause him to value even more the successful Third World relationships he retains and to strengthen his resolve to exploit opportunities for new ones The future of some of the existing large-scale Cuban civilian contingents abroad has grown more uncertain in recent years. Regional talks in southern Africa have not improved the prospects for the Cuban civil- ians there. Castro reportedly was outraged with the signing of the Nkomati accord in March 1984 be- tween Mozambique and South Africa. Similarly, al- leged Angolan failure to keep Havana abreast of negotiations with Pretoria has put more distance between Castro and President dos Santos. In addition, the rebel bombing of a Cuban barracks last April may have made it more difficult to recruit personnel to work in that country. Although neither situation has led to cuts in the number of Cuban civilians in those countries, any turn away from the Communist Bloc and toward the West that grows out of regional accommodation would work against their extended stay. In Nicaragua, it appears likely that Cuban- trained Nicaraguans this year will replace Cuban 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret Soldiers or Civilians: Cuban Economic Technicians Abroad Although Cuban economic technicians in the Third World truly are civilians, Havana makes no secret of the fact that it expects its personnel abroad to be able to use small arms to defend themselves. Most Cuban technicians-male and female-have undergone at least basic small-arms familiarization training. ing Cuba civilians assigned abroad often receive an intensive military training course lasting four to six weeks. Nicaragua. chief of the Cuban medical detachment reportedly was forced to depart on his 40th birthday. Havana also made certificates of recent military training mandatory for personnel assigned to Nicaragua, and we believe the new requirement is being strictly enforced. Defensive preparations were evident across the board; even Cuban Communications Ministry workers have held combat preparedness meetings. Defensive fortifications have been constructed at the Timal sugar refinery-Cuba's largest aid project in access to weapons and extensive drills make Over the past 18 months, growingfears of direct US involvement in Nicaragua and rebel activities in that country as well as in Angola have led Havana to place considerably greater emphasis on the military side of its civilian aid program. In Nicaragua, Ha- vana dramatically transformed the composition of its civilian aid personnel in the country during 1984. New age and gender restrictions were put in place, and by the end of the year most women and older technicians had been pulled out, some replaced by younger men. The seriousness with which Cuba pur- sued these changes is underscored by thefact that the primary and secondary school teachers, thereby per- manently reducing Havana's presence by 1,600. Fi- nally, the nature of the Cuban involvement in Grena- da revealed by the intervention has probably made potential recipients much more reluctant to accept highly visible large contingents. Former Jamaican Prime Minister Manley, for example, reportedly has told Castro he would not now consent to large Cuban work teams like those in Jamaica a few years ago.F- Havana will follow through on opportunities for small-scale assistance, but probably will experience additional setbacks in some existing minor programs. Other than Angola and Nicaragua, we have little evidence that these above changes are being imple- mented elsewhere. Low-profiled assistance programs are less controver- sial from both Cuban and Third World perspectives, and new chances for such activities will continue to arise, mostly in Africa. We believe a current list of likely candidates for positive Cuban aid developments includes Burkina, Ghana, Guyana, Mauritania, Zaire, and Zambia (table 4). A Cuba-Zambia Joint Commis- sion for Economic Cooperation may have been orga- nized just late last year, and one with Zaire is being discussed. We foresee only small-scale or slowly grow- ing aid to these countries, however, primarily because 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Table 4 Pending Offers of Cuban Assistance Since 1983 Belize Benin Bolivia, Burkina Ecuador Ghana Guyana Kuwait Mauritania Mexico Nigeria Sierra Leone Trinidad and Tobago Vanuatu Zaire , Zimbabwe Housing. Roads, housing. Teachers, agricultural and medical technicians. Railroad and airport rehabilitation, sugar industry development, economic planning. Hospital, pharmaceutical plant, teachers. Fisheries and sugar industry development. Housing, cement silos, medical school, additional doctors and teachers, agricultural development. Miscellaneous construction projects. Joint fisheries venture, sugar mill rehabilitation. Housing, hospital, schools. Hospital, schools, hotel, joint fisheries venture, agricultural technicians. Sugar mill. Public works project. Medical assistance. Sports complex, roads, sugar refinery, agricultural development, teachers, medical technicians. Vocational school, sports complex, medical technicians. Countries that currently have either negligible or no assistance- based ties to Cuba. of their reported reluctance to accept large numbers of Cubans. Havana also has standing offers of assis- tance to a number of other, less receptive, Third World countries; the ones we are aware of are Belize, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Zimba- bwe. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction with Cuban assis- tance, never an uncommon phenomenon, probably will lead a numbe r of Third World clients to curtail Havana's activiti Burun t, Sao ome an Principe, and Seychelles a ready iously consid- ering such cutback Cuban leaders have placed stronger emphasis on the provision of economic technicians to Third World countries as a way of increasing hard currency remit- tances and making marginal reductions in domestic unemployment. Havana appears to have focused on the lucrative Middle Eastern market apparently be- lieving that declining oil revenues will not damage the opportunities for its projects, which tend to be small ccnle and inPxnrnciv 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Secret nearly one-fifth of all Cuban overseas personnel are located, is likely to continue despite Tripoli's foreign debt repayment problems. Cuban technicians repre- sent only about 0.5 percent of the foreign workers in the countr Cuba also has been trying to break into the Latin American construction market and has made offers to international firms to supply laborers and skilled technicians for projects in Mexico and other Latin American states, Because it charges less for its personnel than Western suppliers, Havana reportedly is optimistic about concludin and we believe at least some positions probably will be open to foreigners. As in the past, many Third World regimes will continue to view small numbers of Cuban scholarships as a harmless way to add to their limited technical expertise. For its part, Cuba will find it easier to accommodate foreign students in the future, as demographic changes cause domestic enrollments to drop 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Cuban economic assistance will continue to consist overwhelmingly of basic technical services, rather than turnkey projects with financial assistance. The Cuban economy will not support significant increases in aid financing in the near term. The only large turnkey projects we are aware of Havana discussing are sugar refinery construction or rehabilitations, such as that in Nicaragua, but without Cuban financ- ing. Cuba will continue to provide smaller light industry facilities. Because of the scarcity of highly trained technical experts in Cuba, Havana will limit itself to the provision of laborers and midlevel technicians We believe the Third World student program will grow despite its various problems. The rate of accep- tance of scholarship offers has not diminished, and offers to additional countries and those that now have only limited numbers of students continue to grow. In addition, as some Isle of Youth students have moved on to Cuban universities or technical institutes, a new generation has begun to take their places. This year Havana plans to open four new Isle of Youth schools, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 Typical Elements of the Cuban Program .Shaping popular opirunn: it .1'ICU/aLuan-C11han /dirt crlu. Lien in toll sit tit Ito it It ok the nres, a"c i, nor /o I, a Iaillt Ctlhan-Janlai[a/I Cii,, s trim Olt TCanl. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/12/09: CIA-RDP97R00694R000400740001-5 An entphusis on IcIoIll tinnarr esprit de carps: the `Chi Guevara Cit it ngent"o/(uhait learlice s arrives in 4ngoItI. Cone errtralei) e an simple pIoic,Is: hridges in \ I(arupna. for the do/ease vi lriendli renirees: students at the Cuhan-hnilt rnilitare school in Iluamho. Angola. Iladirlg an irrrpresstoll nn Ill, roue;: a Cnhan reach// ie o muAcs/I i/II (/1/5 10, )Ill. ,u,al AiiU/agna. 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