EAST GERMANY: SOVIET PARTNER IN THE LDCS

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CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3
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S
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25
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December 22, 2016
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March 7, 2012
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1
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Publication Date: 
September 1, 1983
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 f ff, Directorate of East Germany: Soviet Partner in the LDCs An Iateltce Assessment GI 83-10201 September 1983 copy 3 7 7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 f`~`E Directorate of Secret uneurgence East Germany: Soviet Partner in the LDCs This paper was prepared by Directorate of Operations Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief. Communist Activities Branch, OGI, Secret GI 83-10201 September 1983 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret East Germany: Soviet Partner in the LDCs F- Key Judgments East Germany is an active partner in the USSR's drive to increase Information available Communist presence and influence in the Third World. The East German as of 31 August /983 programs are small compared with the Soviet effort but have grown in size was used in this report. and scope to the point where East Germany now provides a number of com- plementary services that serve Moscow's foreign policy interests. These services range from traditional military and economic assistance to special- ized activities such as developing local security and intelligence services, establishing party and media links, and providing technical training courses. East Germany has contributed to the establishment or consolida- tion of a number of pro-Soviet regimes, notably in Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, South Yemen, and Syria. In addition, East Germany has used links with LDC Communist parties, media, labor unions, and front organizations to increase Communist presence and influence in the Third World. East German programs are most heavily concentrated in Africa and the Middle East, but recently have become more active in Latin America. We believe that the East Germans in some instances act as surrogates performing duties at Soviet request and in other cases carry out programs in general coordination with Moscow but with the specifics left to East Berlin. The kinds of activities that appear to be most closely coordinated are those dealing with intelligence and security, military assistance, and covert support to nonruling leftist and Communist parties. Other activi- ties-such as economic assistance-are apparently conducted much more independently, although with Moscow's knowledge and encouragement. In addition to supporting Moscow's foreign policy goals, East German relations with the Third World have been driven by its desire to enhance its own international prestige, particularly vis-a-vis West Germany, and more recently, by economic necessity, particuh need to gain access to hard currency and export markets. We expect that the East German interest in the Third World will continue to increase because their activities provide benefits to the USSR and the LDCs as well as East Germany. Of the various East German programs, in- telligence and security assistance and political influence activities are most likely to be expanded and pose the most direct challenge to US interests. While Africa and the Middle East probably will continue to be prime targets, recent East German activities in Nicaragua and Grenada indicate an increasing interest in Latin America and the Caribbean. Secret GI 83-1020/ September 1983 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 East German Programs in the Third World Our knowledge about the size and scope of East German programs comes from LDCs, media agreements were signed with at least six LDCs, and some 300 East German youths were assigned to friendship brigades in nine LDCs. Embassy reporting, and East German and Third World press. We are confident that our data accurately reflect the general size and pattern of East German activities, but we are less confident about the specific details of individual programs. Our data show that the East Germans are active throughout the Third World and that their programs are most heavily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Programs differ from country to coun- try, but one or more of the following elements are at the heart of East German efforts in each target country: ? Intelligence and Military Advisers. We estimate that in 1982 there were 1,000 to 1,500 East German advisers in LDCs. Most of them were involved in assisting leftist regimes develop their intelligence and security apparatus. Others were employed as weapons instructors, maintenance and repair tech- nicians, logistic specialists, and staff advisers. ? Political Influence Mechanisms. East Germany uses a variety of mechanisms to penetrate or influence key sectors of LDC governments and populations- such as providing political advice and support to Marxist parties; training journalists and supporting leftist newspapers; and exploiting youth, labor, and front organizations. In 1982 friendship exchanges were conducted with fraternal parties in seven Soviet and East German offi- cers reviewing Angolan military ? Military Supply Program. Since the start of its military supply program in 1964, East Germany has signed military sales agreements worth $860 million with about 30 LDCs calling primarily for the supply of vehicles, artillery, small arms, and ammunition. Sales reached $320 million in 1982 alone, reflecting East German sales of vehicles to Iran as well as equipment and ammunition to Iraq. ? Economic Assistance. East Germany has signed economic agreements totaling nearly $3 billion with some 50 LDCs since the program began in 1955. A large share of the recent agreements has been trade credits that call for repayment in hard currency or oil. In addition, East Germany had some 5,000 technicians in LDCs in 1982-three times the num- ber in 1978-to help organize and develop govern- ment administration, install and maintain East German equipment, and work on development projects. ? Trade. East Germany's trade with Third World countries amounted to over $2 billion in 1981, accounting for 5 percent of East German orei n trade, as it has since the early 1960s. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret East Germany: Soviet Partner in the LDCs East German efforts in support of Moscow's foreign policy objectives in the Third World have led to a substantial expansion of relations with LDCs since the early 1970s. Starting essentially as moral support for Third World "progressive" states and "liberation" movements, East German activities in the LDCs are now varied and include government-to-government diplomatic relations, party-to-party ties, cultural and media links, intelligence and security assistance, training programs, military and economic agree- ments, and trade. Although the East German programs are small com- pared with those of the Soviet Union, they comple- ment Soviet programs by concentrating on selected countries and specializing in those areas that have the greatest potential for influence in LDCs. For example: ? By providing intelligence and security assistance to several African countries, the East Germans have been instrumental in helping to secure Moscow's position in the area. ? By developing party-to-party relations, East Berlin has been able to provide support to nonruling leftist and Communist parties in Latin America. ? East Germany's extensive media activities help meet Moscow's goals of broadly disseminating Commu- nist propaganda. ? East Berlin's support of youth movements and trade unions exemplify East German efforts to penetrate key sectors in LDCs in order to secure current and future political advantage for itself and Moscow. ? East Germany's military supply program, while small, is used selectively to help support the needs of Soviet clients and potential clients. In addition to supporting Soviet Third World policies, East Germany's activities in the Third World are apparently also motivated by East Berlin's desire to: ? Enhance East German international visibility and prestige, particularly vis-a-vis West Germany. ? Provide East Germany with needed export markets and hard currency earnings to help finance imports from the West as well as from the Soviet Union and other Warsaw Pact countries. Of the USSR's Warsaw Pact allies, East Germany plays the most active role in support of Soviet objec- tives in the Third World. East Berlin no doubt shares many of Moscow's motives for penetrating Third World countries. East German leaders have frequent- ly stated their support for-and willingness to act as an instrument of-Soviet policy. For example, in a speech to the Parliament in June 1979 on the signing of "friendship and cooperation" treaties with Angola 25X1 and Mozambique, Foreign Minister Fischer acknowl- edged that the treaties were an expression of the "coordinated foreign policy of the states of the social- ist community." We believe, however, that some of the motivation for East Germany's activities stems not just from shared ideals but also from a desire to enhance its position with Moscow in hopes of increas- ing Soviet support for East German political and economic interests. There are numerous examples of East German activi- ties in the Third World that directly support Soviet objectives: ? East Germans have helped to consolidate pro- Soviet, Marxist-oriented regimes in South Yemen, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Angola. ? East Berlin responded rapidly and fairly generously to the Sandinista takeover in Nicaragua, offering $30 million in military equipment and $110 million in economic assistance since late 1979. This repre- sents almost 25 percent of total Warsaw Pact aid to Nicaragua. East Germany has also provided limited aid and training to Guatemalan and Salvadoran insurgents. ? East Germany has provided assistance to the Pales- tine Liberation Organization (PLO), Syria, and Iraq in support of Soviet Middle East policies. East Germany's resupply of Iraq in the early days of the Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Through its involvement in Third World media, East Germany has had some success in casting events in a pro-East, anti-West light. Such involvement includes training journalists, providing news services, support- ing party newspapers, and facilitating clandestine radiobroadcasting Journalist Training The Solidarity School run by East Germany's Jour- nalist Union was established by the International Organization of Journalists, one of the 10 major Soviet front groups. The school has been largely used to train journalists from African countries such as Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia News Services The East German news agency, ADN, is increasingly active in the Third World. US Embassy reporting shows that the East Germans regularly supply material to Tanzania's government press service and local Tanzanian newspapers and that the East Germans along with the Soviets regu- larly plant stories hostile to the West in the Zambian media. ADN pieces are frequently printed in the Ethiopian press. Ghana is reported to receive free wire service from East Germany, and, according to US Embassy reporting, a source who claims to have good connections in Ghana claims that the East Germans provided much of the material for an article on "CIA in Ghana? " which appeared in the Peoples Daily Graphic last December. East German involvement in the media of other countries has been less detectable, but ADN has recently signed agreements with news services in such countries as Burma, Cyprus, Greece, South Yemen, and Syria. In India, East Germany continues to be active in the media, conducting broadcasts in both English and Hindi and maintaining a bureau in New Delhi. Support to Party Newspapers East Germany also provides printing equipment and supplies to a number offriendly Third World govern- ments and to nonruling Communist and leftist parties for their party newspapers: ? Grenada recently received a GDR grant for printing equipment for its Free West Indian newspaper. ? According to press reports, East Germany covertly provided financial assistance to the publishing house of the pro-Soviet Greek Communist Party through a front company in Luxembourg. Clandestine Radiobroadcasts East Germany has also provided broadcasting facili- ties to a number of Western and Third World Com- munist movements including Iran's Tudeh Party and the Greek Communist Party. In most cases, the listeners were led to believe that the broadcasts originated in the target country. The only clandestine stations still operating from Eastern Europe are two that broadcast in Turkish from East Germany: "Voice of the Turkish Communist Party" and "Our Radio. " Broadcasts generally follow the Soviet line in commenting on Turkish foreign policy and empha- size themes designed to discredit the United States, NATO, and the West. On many issues, moreover, these broadcasts have been much more critical than the more cautious official Soviet and East German media. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Iran-Iraq war preceded Moscow's own shift to supporting Baghdad, while Moscow was still trying to solidify its relations with Tehran. ? East Germany has been among the most active Warsaw Pact countries in assisting leftist insurgent groups. It has provided advisory support or training (and, in some cases, weapons) to the South-West Africa People's Organization according to State Department reporting, ? East Germany provides printing equipment and supplies to pro-Soviet leftist newspapers in Grenada, Peru, Greece, and Portugal and news services to a number of countries including Mozambique, Ethiopia, Zambia, Tanzania, Ghana, Syria, South Yemen, Greece, Cyprus, Burma, and India. ? East Germany is also an active participant in inter- national Communist front organizations such as the World Peace Council and the Afro-Asian People's Solidarity Organization. It has representatives on the executive committees or secretariats of nine out of the 10 major Soviet fronts, and one of the fronts-the Women's International Democratic Federation-is headquartered in East Berlin. East Germany has also established friendship societies in countries throughout the Third World and has used these as well as cultural and sports activities as vehicles for promoting Soviet views. ? East Germany has several training programs for LDC personnel that complement Soviet and War- saw Pact training programs. We believe, based largely on the reporting of military attaches, that more than 1,000 trainees from LDCs-mainly from Ethiopia, Zambia, and Mozambique-underwent military and paramilitary instruction in East Ger- ? East Germany's Communist Party, the Socialist Unity Party (SED), has continued to develop and maintain direct links with leftist and Communist parties in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. SED officials frequently attend party congresses and have been involved in organizing and training party cadre as well as providing advice and other support. For instance, after the visit of an SED Central Committee Politburo delegation to Congo in 1981, an agreement was signed with the Congo- lese Labor Party calling for closer ties with the SED, including continued training of Congolese party cadre, according to a State Department re- Coordination of Activities There appears to be coordination and some specializa- tion of activities between the USSR and East Germa- ny in the Third World. The degree of coordination apparently varies depending partly on geopolitical interests, but, in general, Soviet-East German coordi- nation appears to be most prevalent in activities dealing with arms sales, intelligence and military technical assistance, party cadre development, and support to liberation movements. 25X1 25X1 More coordination and specialization-particularly between the USSR, East Germany, and, in some instances, Cuba-is evident in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America than in other regions. In Ethiopia and Angola, for example, Moscow has provided the bulk of the Bloc military and economic aid, Cuba has supplied combat troops, while the East Germans have concentrated on strengthening and reorganizing local intelligence and security services. The apparent coor- dination of East German, Cuban, and Soviet activi- ties, as well as East Germany's increased role in Africa, may have been the result of an understanding reached by the three countries in 1977 when Cuban President Fidel Castro and later Soviet Defense Min- 25X1 ister Ustinov visited East Berlin. 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Ethiopian journalists being tau ht by East German instruc- tors In Latin America-particularly in Nicaragua-a stronger East German effort in the area seems to have followed party leader Honecker's visit to Cuba in early 1980. The visit culminated in the signing of a 25-year friendship and cooperation treaty, the first of its kind signed by Cuba with a Warsaw Pact state. According to US Embassy reporting, East Germany now has a 110-man contingent of military and eco- nomic technicians in Nicaragua, complementing an estimated Soviet presence of 260. The East Germans have concentrated on assisting the Nicaraguans to develop their security and party apparatus. They have also supplied over 800 trucks to Nicaragua through Arms Sales. According to State Department and military attache reporting, Warsaw Pact arms sales are coordinated with and, in some instances, orches- trated by Moscow-the amount of Soviet control varying with the size of the order, the type of equipment involved, and the political importance Moscow attaches to the client/supplier relationship. East Germany's military equipment sales account for less than 3 percent of total Warsaw Pact sales to the Third World. As is the case with other Warsaw Pact suppliers, sales are concentrated in a few Soviet- supported states in: ? The Middle East-Iraq, Iran, Syria, North Yemen, and Libya. ? Sub-Saharan Africa-Angola, Mozambique, Ethio- pia, and Zambia. ? Latin America-primarily Nicaragua (figure 1 and table 1). 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Figure 1 East Germany: Military Sales With LDCs Percent 1964-77 Total: $147 million 1978-82 Total: $713 million Middle East 4.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 15.1 78.2 North Africa 2.5 ? A Syrian journalist based in East Berlin recently told the US Embassy there that East Germany- with Soviet backing-will play a role in training the Syrian military. Moreover, he expected the Soviets to funnel some military equipment shipments to Syria through East Germany. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Table I East Germany: Military Relations With Non-Communist LDCs, 1964-82 Total Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Agreements Deliveries 860 588 211 209 Benin NA Cameroon NEGL NEGL Senegal NA NA Tanzania 5 5 Zaire NEGL NEGL Middle East 600 348 Egypt 8 8 Iran 208 17 Iraq 292 231 Lebanon NEGL NEGL North Yemen 19 19 South Yemen 2 2 Syria 65 65 Afghanistan NA NA Bangladesh NEGL NEGL NEGL NEGL 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Table 2 East Germany: Intelligence and Military Advisers in LDCs, 1982 a Angola 200-250 Congo 20 Ethiopia 250-300 Guinea-Bissau 15-30 Zambia 40 Other 115-250 Middle East 300-550 200-300 75-150 Other 25-100 Latin America 60 60 Support of Liberation Movements. East Germany's support of liberation and revolutionary movements has also closely paralleled that of the Soviet Union. For example, the East Germans joined the Soviets in backing Mozambique's FRELIMO and Angola's MPLA long before these regimes came to power. On some occasions, the East Germans appear to have been used to establish contact with a movement when it was politically inopportune for Moscow to do so. East Ber- 25X1 lin established close relations with the PLO when Moscow officially treated it with caution; the PLO opened an office in East Berlin in 1973, three years before opening one in Moscow. Similarly, the Zimba- bwe African People's Union (ZAPU) opened an office in East Berlin in 1978, the first of its kind in the Soviet Bloc25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Honecker receiving Zambian General Svrrvtarv Humnhrrv Mulemba Other Motives In addition to backing Moscow, East German activi- ties in the Third World also support two of East Berlin's most important foreign policy objectives: ? The East German desire for international recogni- tion and prestige comparable to West Germany. ? More recently, the need for increased earnings of hard currency or opportunities to barter with LDC raw materials for East German goods or services. The International Prestige Factor The desire to attain recognition as a legitimate sover- eign state is not the driving force it once was, as most states now recognize East Germany. Nevertheless, we believe that the rivalry with West Germany for prestige and influence in the Third World remains strong. With this in mind, the East Germans have paid special attention to liberation movements and new regimes in Africa and the Middle East. In agreements signed with Third World countries, the East Germans try to insert references to the inviola- bility of the inter-German frontier and to seek ac- knowledgment that West Berlin is not part of West Secret Germany. In May 1978 the East German Ambassa- dor persuaded Guinea-Bissau to shelve an $8 million aid agreement with Bonn because it contained a clause that endorsed the special ties between West Germany and West Berlin. East Berlin uses the image of increased prestige it has gained in the Third World to bolster the legitimacy of the East German Government with its own people. Support of foreign revolutionary causes is justified to the East German populace as a necessary contribution of the "ultimate victory" of Communism over imperialism. East German Communist Party leader Honecker and other high-level East German officials have made frequent visits to Africa, the Middle East, and other Third World regions. These visits as well as those of Third World governments and party leaders to East Germany are well publicized in the East German and Bloc media. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Honecker meeting with YAR Vice Presiden Abdul Ghani East Germany's investment has paid off well in gains in international recognition and prestige. At the be- ginning of 1970, East Germany was recognized by only seven non-Communist countries. Today it has formal relations with over 130 and assistance agree- ments with 50. It has gained influence and respect, particularly in Africa and the Middle East where it has established close relations with a number of countries as well as with many of the leading African revolutionary movements and the PLO. It has signed treaties of friendship and cooperation with Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, South Yemen, and Afghani- stan and a joint declaration of friendship and coopera- tion with Syria. Its influence also appears to be increasing in other countries such as Zambia and Nicaragua. The East Germans, nevertheless, have also suffered some setbacks. According to Embassy reporting, East German police advisers in Somalia were sent home in 1981 when Mogadishu refused to renew their con- tracts, presumably a reflection of Somalia's distanc- The East Germans also experienced a setback in Zimbabwe that they now appear to be reversing. East Germany, along with Czechoslovakia and the USSR, backed the ZAPU which lost out to Mueabe's Zimba- bwe African National Union (ZANU). Economic Considerations Although East Germany's economic and military programs in the Third World were at first motivated more by political and ideological considerations, East Germany began to increase its emphasis on economic considerations in the mid-1970s (figure 2 and table 3). At that time, economic constraints began impinging on East Berlin's willingness to provide financial aid to 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Figure 2 East Germany: Economic Agreements With LDCs Percent 1955-77 1978-82 Total: $1,295 million Total: $1,681 million North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 300511 9-83 East German supplies being un- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Table 3 East Germany: Economic Aid to Non-Communist LDCs, 1955-82 Total a 2,976 959 North Africa 402 135 Algeria 377 127 Tunisia 25 8 Burundi NEGL NEGL Cape Verde 7 4 Congo 27 23 Ethiopia 235 32 Ghana 64 15 Nicaragua Guinea 24 24 Panama Guinea-Bissau 5 5 Uruguay Madagascar 9 1 Middle East Mali NEGL NEGL Egypt Iran Sao Tome and Principe 5 Iraq Somalia I 1 North Yemen Sudan 46 18 South Yemen Tanzania 19 5 Syria Uganda 24 1 Turkey Zambia 96 2 South Asia Zimbabwe 16 2 Afghanistan Bangladesh Burma India Indonesia Pakistan Kampuchea Sri Lanka New measures during the past five years to increase economic returns from LDC relationships have included: ? Opening new markets for East German equipment by expanding the size and scope of credits provided under trade agreements. Of the $1.7 billion in economic agreements signed in 1978-82, $1.3 billion 112 45 4 3 6 6 1,001 390 264 170 100 84 55 10 10 42 32 451 122 50 166 81 42 15 25 12 2 2 35 10 62 42 were trade credits, usually carrying 10-year repay- ment terms at 4.5- to 9-percent interest. According to an East German official, only countries with good credit records are being allowed deferred payment terms. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret ? Focusing on agreements with countries that can pay in hard currency or in needed raw materials such as oil. This pattern has become more pronounced in both military and economic agreements over the past five years. Three-fourths of the $1.7 billion in economic agreements is repayable in hard currency, oil, or other raw materials. Seventy percent of the $710 million in East German military agreements with non-Communist LDCs over the past five years have been with Middle Eastern oil producers, pay- able in oil or hard currency. ? Raising charges for technical services and requiring payment in hard currency. Because of the heavy concentration of personnel in countries that had been targeted for ideological purposes, East Germa- ny had not enjoyed the same hard currency returns that other East European countries had been earn- ing on their technical services programs. Thus far the East German economic initiatives in Third World countries have had limited results (table 4). Total exports to LDCs amounted to only $1 billion in 1981-down slightly from 1980-with the LDC share of East German trade steady at 5 percent since the early 1960s. Nevertheless, military deliveries in 1981 accounted for about 10 percent of exports, generating at least $100 million in hard currency. Further hard currency earnings came from Iran, Iraq, and Libya, which together accounted for more than one-third of East Germany's Third World exports. We expect income from military sales to increase as LDCs take delivery of equipment from a record x32(1 million in contracts signed in 1982. We believe that most East German programs will continue to grow over the next several years. In our view, economic aid and trade agreements will grow only slightly-the emphasis being on hard currency Table 4 East Germany: Trade With Major LDC Partners Total 947 2,295 27041 North Africa 43 352 243 Algeria 21 163 76 Libya 4 152 150 4 15 14 83 112 Sudan 10 8 2 Tanzania 2 15 1 East Asia 13 48 43 139 389 412 _ 8 66 72 75 182 200 11 67 43 10 64 80 35 10 17 526 927 711 Egypt 183 93 89 Iran 17 33 38 Syria 60 118 130 Turkey South Asia 113 145 189 India 100 134 180 Pakistan 5 6 4 Portugal 11 8 9 Spain 31 51 86 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret rving Nicaraguan wounded to East Berlin for treatment earnings-and will have little direct impact on the United States. In contrast, East Germany probably will make increased use of its intelligence and security training programs and its political influence mecha- nisms, activities that affect US interests more direct- ly. In addition, East Berlin's military supply program, while small in comparison to Moscow's, can be used selectively in those areas where Moscow is reluctant to show its hand directly. We believe that these trends are already evident in recent East German moves: ? During 1982 East Berlin signed agreements to 25X1 provide news services to the local press in Greece, Cyprus, and Syria and provided a grant for newspa- per Printing equipment to the government of Grena- da. 25X1 We expect that countries in Africa and the Middle 25X1 East will remain prime targets for East Germany, but the opportunities for increased East German involve- ment in Latin America may be of most concern to the Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Maurice Bishop visitinu United States. East Germany's recent efforts in Cen- tral America and the Caribbean, its ties to leftist and Communist groups, and its effort to develop economic relations in the region indicate a growing interest in Latin America. How much further East Berlin will go is not yet clear. In considering this question, East Berlin will have to balance its desire for ties and influence with revolutionary regimes and nonruling leftist parties with its efforts to develop relations with countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, where East Germany has a growing economic stake. The impetus for continued expansion of East German activities in the Third World comes from the potential benefits to all parties-the East Germans, the USSR, and the LDCs themselves. In addition to helping secure its international position, East Germany's ac- tive role in the Third World reinforces its special relationship with Moscow. It also provides some op- portunities-albeit as yet small-for economic gain. For the USSR, the presence of its Warsaw Pact ally in the Third World takes some of the burden off Moscow and helps diffuse some of the Western and Third World criticism of superpower interference. The Soviets can be expected to again look to the East Germans to test the waters in a target LDC when it is politically inopportune for them to do so. The LDCs benefit from East German programs because of the specialized technical expertise the East Germans have developed. 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Appendix Supplemental Data on East German Military and Economic Assistance Programs Table A-1 East Germany: Military Agreements With LDCs, 1964-82 Libya 18 18 Sub-Saharan Africa 5 18 80 39 5 63 1 NA 211 Angola 14 50 10 5 79 Congo 2 NEGL 2 Ethiopia .. 16 24 NEGL 2 42 Ghana 2 2 Guinea Guinea-Bissau Madagascar Mozambique 4 14 Senegal .. .. Tanzania 3 .. 2 Zaire Zambia East Asia Burma Indonesia Latin America Guyana Nicaragua Middle East Egypt Iran Iraq Lebanon North Yemen South Yemen .. .. .. 5 .. 2 23 39 3 1 61 NEGL 159 60 277 8 NEGL 30 NEGI. 30 600 4 204 208 16 3 1 8 153 50 61 292 53 NEGL United Arab Emirates Afghanistan Bangladesh NEGL India NEGL .. NEGI. 19 2 65 6 NA NA NA NA NEGI. NEGI. 23 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 secret Table A-2 East Germany: Type of Military Equipment Provided to Non-Communist LDCs Angola Small arms, ammunition, trucks, trailers, other vehicles, spare parts Congo Small arms, ammunition, other ground force materiel Ethiopia Antiaircraft guns, small arms, ammuni- tion, medical supplies Mozambique Fighter aircraft, tanks, assault guns, anti- aircraft guns, armored personnel carriers, training Tanzania Patrol craft, small arms, ammunition, trucks Zambia Artillery weapons and ammunitions, vehicles Egypt Transport aircraft, vehicles, communica- tions equipment Iraq Artillery, small arms, vehicles, ammunition Syria Jet fighter aircraft, electronic equipment, small arms, ammunition South Yemen Artillery, armored cars, small arms East Asia Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Table A-3 East Germany: Economic Credits and Grants Extended to LDCs Total- 796 222 277 965 91 113 404 North Africa 131 21 250 Algeria 127 250 Congo 5 22 Ethiopia 1 23 207 1 2 Ghana 22 42 Guinea 4 NEGL Guinea-Bissau 5 Mali NEGL Mozambique 5 1 9 2 2 75 Sudan 46 NEGL Tanzania 7 12 Uganda 22 1 Zimbabwe 14 East Asia 90 75 30 Burma 8 Indonesia 69 75 Bolivia 5 10 Brazil 19 200 Chile 20 Colombia 5 55 Grenada Guyana 10 20 6 Mexico .. 20 .. .. Nicaragua .. .. .. .. 20 4 62 108 2,976 402 377 NEGL 10 104 46 19 23 2 16 195 8 144 15 219 20 60 16 16 .. 36 .. 20 26 112 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 necre[ Table A-3 East Germany: Economic Credits and Grants Extended to LDCs (continued) 33 264 100 10 25 25 2 2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97ROO694ROO0200780001-3 Secret Table A-4 East Germany: Economic Technicians in Non-Communist LDCs, 1982 Total 4,835 North Africa 700 Algeria 250 Libya 400 Tunisia 50 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,510 Angola 750 Ethiopia 500 Guinea 200 Mozambique 800 Zambia 100 Other 160 Other South Yemen Syria Other South Asia Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97ROO694ROO0200780001-3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3 Secret Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/07: CIA-RDP97R00694R000200780001-3