(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100650001-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 7, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 86-023
7 November 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100650001-1
This publication is prepared for the use of US Government
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Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100650001-1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Percent change from previous period
seasonally' adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr Jul Aug
United States
2.6
-7.2
5.9
11.2
2.0
1.2
-2.1 7.0 1.9
Japan
West Germany
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
3.3
3.9
0
10.5 -22.2 -3.4
France
-2.6
-1.5
1.1
2.5
0.4
-4.9
6.2 9.2 0
United Kingdom
-3.9
2.1
3.9
1.3
4.8
2.7
-1.3 28.9 6.8
Italy
-1.6
-3.1
-3.2
3.3
1.2
11.7
7.1 -34.3 -42.2
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
8.8
4.3
-0.9
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr I st Qtr 2d Qtr
United States
2.5
-2.1
3.6
6.4
2.7
4.1
2.1 3.8 0.6
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.5
2.7
5.8 -2.1 3.6
West Germany
-0.2
-1.0
1.8
3.0
2.5
6.9
-2.7 -4.2 14.3
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.4
3.7
2.6 0.8 4.3
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.4
2.8
3.6
-0.4
0.7 4.4 0.7
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
2.8
2.3
1.0
2.3 -0.4
Canada
3.3
-4.4
3.1
5.5
4.0
3.1
7.3 2.1 3.1
Constant market prices.
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
1.4
-1.7
2.6
4.1
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.9
2.2
2.1
0.4
0.9
-2.0
6.2
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
-1.0
-1.1
-0.6
1.0
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
0.9
1.6
2.8
5.1
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
4.2
0.6
2.5
9.0
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.1
5.0
5.1
2.7
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
4.8
3.0
4.7
3.1
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Money Supply, M-1
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr 2d Qtr
3dQtr
United States b 7.1 6.6
11.2
7.0
9.1
7.9
16.8
18.6
Japan 3.7 7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
7.7
9.4
9.6
West Germany 1.1 3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
9.8
11.3
7.4
France 12.2 13.9
8.7
20.4
1.4
United Kingdom NA NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
9.2-33.1-22.9-
Canada 3.8 0.7
10.2
3.3
4.1
-1.3
-1.8
13.4
Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate a
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Aug
Sep
22.9
10.4
21.0
1.6
14.5
6.0
27.3
22.8
--7.3
39.2
Aug
Sep
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
7.0
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.9
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.8
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.7
10.0 _
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.3
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
10.7
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.6
11.7_
11.6
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.5
11.3
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
9.7
9.6
9.7
9.7
9.5
Prior to May 1986, unemployment rates for France were estimated.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
United States b
Exports 233.5
Imports 261.0
Balance -27.5
212.3
244.0
-31.6
200.6
258.4
-57.8
218.0
326.3
-108.3
213.2
346.1
-133.0
53.0
91.7
-38.7
53.2
88.1
-34.9
55.2
93.9
-38.7
18.6
30.3
-11.7
18.1
29.5
-11.3
Japan
Exports 149.6
Imports 129.5
Balance 20.1
138.2
119.6
18.6
145.4
114.0
31.4
168.1
124.1
44.0
173.9
118.0
55.9
47.8
29.9
17.9
51.4
28.9
22.5
54.0
28.2
25.7
17.9
9.0
8.8
18.4
9.5
8.9
West Germany
Exports 175.4
Imports 163.4
Balance 11.9
176.4
155.3
21.1
169.5
152.9
16.6
171.9
153.1
18.8
184.2
158.9
25.3
55.2
45.0
10.2
60.9
47.7
13.2
63.2
48.2
15.0
20.0
14.7
5.3
22.2
17.6
4.6
France
Exports 106.3
Imports 115.6
Balance -9.3
96.4
110.5
-14.0
95.1
101.0
-5.9
97.5
100.3
-2.8
101.9
104.5
-2.6
30.4
30.3
0.1
29.8
30.9
-1.1
32.4
32.1
0.3
10.7
10.2
0.5
11.0
11.4
-0.4
United Kingdom
Exports 102.5
Imports 94.6
Balance 7.9
97.1
93.1
4.0
92.0
93.3
-1.3
93.7
99.4
-5.7
100.9
103.5
-2.6
26.2
28.4
-2.1
26.8
29.2
-2.4
26.1
30.5
-4.4
8.1
10.3
-2.2
8.9
10.2
-1.3
Italy
Exports 75.4
Imports 91.2
Balance -15.9
73.9
86.7
-12.8
72.8
80.7
-7.9
73.5
84.4
-10.9
78.8
90.8
-12.0
23.4
26.1
-2.7
24.4
24.2
0.1
25.0
24.4
0.6
8.0
6.3
1.7
8.4
9.0
-0.6
Canada
Exports 70.5
Imports 64.4
Balance 6.1
68.5
54.1
14.4
73.6
59.3
14.3
86.6
70.6
16.0
88.1
75.3
12.8
21.9
20.3
1.7
21.2
19.2
2.0
7.0
6.7
0.3
Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
Jun
Jul
Aug
United States 6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-106.5
-117.7
-34.0
-34.7
Japan 4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
12.7
23.1
7.7
8.0
7.1
West Germany -6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.6
6.9
8.3
1.9
2.7
2.0
France -4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.3
1.1
0.3
United Kingdom 15.3
8.5
4.7
1.7
4.8
0.8
0.5
0
0
-1.3
Italy -8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.9
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
I Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Export Prices in US $
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.7
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
--0.6
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-3.5
Import Prices in US $
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
United Kingdom
0.5
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
Canada
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Jul
Aug
-0.3
1.4
7.3
1.1
26.1
24.9
43.8
4.8
33.3
-0.3
-2.6
7.2
-15.8
-3.9
26.1
6.3
47.8
-13.7
0.4
-35.5
-3.2
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
-7.4 -10.2 7.7
-5.3 -49.2 39.0 -52.9
9.8 -11.7 7.5 56.7
-0.5 2.4 -8.2 -II .1
10.7 -20.2- - 6.2
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100650001-1
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr 2d Qtr Jul Aug Sep Oct
Trade-Weighted
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8 -11.3 -17.2
Japan
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
26.8 42.4 113.6
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.5 6.0 17.0
France
5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
----------
5.8 -10.4 2.2
United Kingdom
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0 9.5 -21.5
Italy
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
5.5 5.2 15.1
-Canada--
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-13.1 1.7 2.9
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2 33.5 48.3 27.5
4.2
-3.5
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3 17.1 35.5 40.0
10.1
25.3
28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
29.7 4.4 27.7 28.1
9.1
24.3
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
1.7 20.8 -2.0 -16.7
-12.7
-26.8
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
30.1 14.5 35.2 37.9
8.0
21.9
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-6.9 5.7 6.8 -0.9
-3.9
-0.5
Ist Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr
Aug
Sep
United States
16.24
12.49
9.23
10.56
8.16
7.68 6.75 6.09
5
99
5
83
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
.
.
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
7.79
7.23
NA
6.66
6.52
6.38 5.98 NA
NA
NA
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
12.19
8.82
5.78
5.96
5.40
4.51 4.52 4.49
4.53
4.37
France
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
8.96 7.37 7.13
7
14
7
06
interbank money market
(3 months)
.
.
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
12.26 10.12 9.90
9.87
9.95
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
16.00 12.74 11.49
11.34
11.18
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
11.08 9.03 NA
8.57
NA
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.41
7.91 6.99 6.31
6.23
6.05
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef (e per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (e per pound)
Coffee ($ per pound)
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US e/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices a per pound)
Average Auction (London)
(c per pound)
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, -$ per metric ton)
Food Index 1 (1980=100)
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
112.4
107.4
111.1
101.0
96.6
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
150
123
148
150
125
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
571
445
502
730
501
632
481
514
514
484
573
362
339
310
249
288
244
282
283
225
507
447
727
571
252
219
238
197
157
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
105.2
156.6
90.0
210
187
183
182
169
88
78
86
92
81
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Aug
Sep
109.8
108.5
NA
106.9
NA
97.6
91.3
92.5
91.9
95.7
87.8
84.4
89.7
95.7
82.6
92.7
89.1
101.3
2.01 --
1.73
1.6-
1.54
1.81
116
116
89
87
82
53.60
45.51
37.97
37.03
40.53
289
241
205
197
198
453
352
294
299
295
236
224
235
242
232
218
213
199
198
196
407
348
291
271
265
188
184
187
185
194
5.83
7.45
86.4
85.6
83.8
86.5
85.2
172
158
126
124
126
95
94
82
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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56.8
47.2
51.4
53.1
52.2
51.0
54.8
Chrome Ore
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, 0 per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
64.5
64.5
60.3
59.1
61.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
341.6
376.2
365.4
414.8
Lead a (0 per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
44.4
44.1
42.8
38.7
NA
34.5
NA
49.6
42.0
41.7
40.1
44.1
43.5
45.1
8.1
6.1
5.9
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.7
86.4
74.4
74.0
71.8
NA
75.1
NA
556.6
543.2
357.4
250.5
244.9
245.5
245.1
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Lumber Index 95 84 114
(1980 =100)
Industrial Materials Index f 85 71 82
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
a Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
"The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674
52,931
54,244
55,273
56,347
57,662
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
39,758
40,473
41,597
42,909
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
856
664
848
935
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,077
942
915
967
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,556
7,891
7,964
7,758
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,376
2,477
2,547
2,536
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
758
786
753
583
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,422
4,628
4,664
4,639
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
160
163
170
170
170
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,223
1,250
1,230
1,225
1,298
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,732
1,667
1,800
1,800
1,800
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,540
11,800
11,760
11,790
11,840
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,506
2,557
2,557
2,530
2,530
Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
United States a
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,726
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,123
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,402
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,507
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
15,923
16,056
16,188
15,743
15,852
15,998
16,075
16,623
4,661
5,002
4,547
3,890
3,523
3,556
3,771
3,895
1,625
2,008
1,525
1,701
1,245
1,381
1,424
1,382
1,286
1,483
1,447
1,427
1331
1,323
1,309
1,710
1,842
1,520
1,495
1,345
1,329
1,409
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
3,329 2,993 3,000 3,701 3,872 4,675 4,648 4,868
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
Italy
1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,462
Canada
521
334
247
244
283
1,321 1,258 1,429 1,285 1,340 1,265
1,593 1,593 1,593
353 424 260 185 276 425
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
OPEC Average
(Official Sales Price)
World Average Price
30.87
34.50
33.63
29.31
28.70
28.14
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27.16
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
26.17
22.59
22.33
14.90
14.54
20.55
13.65
12.77
14.13
14.11
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Average Crude Oil Sales Price'
US S per barrel
34.50
30.87 -
18.67
11.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93 .
t_.
a The 1973 price is derived from posted prices, 1974-84 prices are derived
from OPEC official sales prices, and beginning in 1985, prices are a
measure of average world sales prices.
1 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00650001 -1