(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100590001-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 10, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI86-02/
10 October 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
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Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
11.2 2.0 1.2 -2.1
-2.6 -1.5 1.1 2.5 0.5 -4.9 5.1
0.4 3.5 11.1 4.6 0.7 0.9 -1.9 -25.0
-3.2 0.3 3.3 3.9 -0.1 11.3 -23.9
Year 3d Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2d Qtr
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Japan 4.9
4.3 3.5 1.4 -1.7
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Money Supply, M-1
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States b
7.1
6.6
11.2
7.0
9.1
7.9
16.7 15.8 18.3 22.9
3.7
7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
7.7
9.4 7.5 6.5 13.0
West Germany
1.1
3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
9.8
11.3 21.3 -0.4 14.5
12.2
13.9
8.7
20.4
1.4 11.6 4.3
United Kingdom
NA
NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
9.2
33.0 14.7 14.0 27.3
Italy
11.2
11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
8.3
2.4 14.6
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.2
3.3
4.1
- 2.4
-1.9 8.3 28.4 -3.2
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and MI-B.
Unemployment Rate a
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.7
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.9
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.1
9.0
9.0
8.9
8.9
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.7
10.0
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.2
10.3
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
10.7
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.7
11.7
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.5
11.3
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.9
9.7
a Prior to May 1986, unemployment rates for France were estimated.
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1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Jun
Jul
Aug
United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.6
218.0
213.2
53.0
53.2
18.4
18
5
18
7
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.4
326.2
346.1
91.8
88.4
30.1
.
33
8
.
30
6
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.8
-108.2
-132.9
-38.8
-35.2
-11.7
.
-15.3
.
-11
9
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.4
168.1
173.9
47.8
51.3
16.9
17.7
.
17
8
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.1
124.1
118.0
29.9
29.1
10.2
9.7
.
9
0
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
43.9
55.9
17.9
22.2
6.7
8.0
.
8.8
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.2
55.3
60.8
21.2
20.8
19
9
Imports
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
45.1
47.6
15.9
15.7
.
14
9
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
10.1
13.2
5.3
5.2
.
5
0
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
30.4
29.8
10.1
10.8
.
10
7
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
30.3
30.9
10.3
10
6
.
10
2
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
0.1
-1.1
-0.2
.
-0.2
.
0
5
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.0
93.7
100.9
26.2
26.8
8.8
9
0
.
8
1
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.3
99.4
103.5
28.4
29.2
9.7
.
9
9
.
10
3
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.3
-5.7
-2.6
-2.1
-2.4
-0.9
.
-0.9
.
-2
2
Italy
Exports
I
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.5
78.8
23.3
24.3
8.1
8.5
.
8
0
mports
91.2
86.7
80.7
84.4
90.8
26.1
24.2
8.1
9.1
.
6
3
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-11.9
-2.8
0.2
0.1
-0.6
.
1.7
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
21.9
21.3
6.7
7
0
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
20.3
19.2
4
6
.
7
2
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
1.6
2.1
.
0.3
.
0.2
3 Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
Jun
Jul
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-106.5
-117.7
-34.0
-34.7
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
12.7
23.2
7.6
8.0
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.8
6.9
8.3
1.9
2.7
France
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.4
1.1
0.3
United Kingdom
15.3
1.7
4.8
0.8
0.5
0
0
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Aug
-7.1-
2.4
1.3
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 i
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
40.8
16.6 -2.4 48.8
France
12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
33.3
-0.3 -4.7
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
-2.6
7.2 -1.7 -15.8
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
26.1
6.4 -14.9
Import Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-7.2
-10.4
0
8.7
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
-0.5
2.4
-18.2
-8.2
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
10.9
-20.6
-11.6
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
- 9.1
3.8
-21.3
14.4
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E
h
xc
ange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8
-11.3
-21.7
-17.2
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
26.8
42.4
18.4
113.6
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.5
6.0
6.5
17.0
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
5.8
-10.4
7.4
2.2
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0
9.5
3.87
-21.5
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
5.5
5.2
11.7
15.1
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-13.1
1.7
- 7.6
2.9
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2
33.5
-2.2
48.3
27
5
-4
7
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3
17.1
-1.0
35.5
.
40
0
.
9
0
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
29.7
4.4
-2.8
27.7
.
28
1
.
8
1
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
1.7
20.8
-7.7
-2.0
.
-16
7
.
-10
6
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
30.1
14.5
-2.0
35.2
.
37.9
.
7.1
Money Market Rates
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
Jul
Aug
Sep
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
7.68
6.75
6.45
5.99
5.83
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
7.79
7.23
NA
6.66
6.52
6.38
5.98
5.73
NA
NA
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
12.19
8.82
5.78
5.96
5.40
4.51
4.52
4.59
4.53
4.37
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
8.96
7.37
7.19
7.14
7.06
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
12.26
10.12
9.89
9.77
9.95
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
16.00
12.74
11.94
11.34
11.18
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
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Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported,
$ per metric ton)
(Total world
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
109.8
108.5
108.9
NA
,
Australia
(Boneless beef,
US Ports)
f
o
b
112.4
107.4
111.1
101.0
96.6
97.6
91.3
90.0
91.9
.
.
.
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
87.8
84.4
89.6
89.9
Cocoa (0 per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
82.6
87.6
89.1
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
1.73
1.49
1.54
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
$ per metric ton)
Rotterdam
i
f
c
150
123
148
150
125
116
116
98
87
,
.
.
.
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
US 0/lb.)
Osaka
i
f
index
c
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
45.51
36.35
37.03
,
.
.
,
.
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
$ per metric ton)
i
f
c
571
445
502
730
501
289
241
221
197
.
.,
.
Rice ($ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
632
481
514
514
484
453
352
288
299
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
Rotterdam)
c
i
f
573
362
339
310
249
236
224
230
242
.
.
.
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
$ per metric ton)
Rotterdam
i
f
c
288
244
282
283
225
218
213
203
198
,
.
.
.
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
507
447
527
727
571
407
348
336
271
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
252
219
238
197
157
188
184
183
185
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
spot prices ? per pound)
Caribbean Ports
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
5.83
7.45
5.58
5.50
,
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(? per pound)
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
85.6
79.8
86.5
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
$ per metric ton)
Rotterdam
c
i
f
210
187
183
182
169
172
158
129
124
,
.
.
.
88
78
86
92
81
95
94
83
81
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, ? per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
64.5
64.5
60.6
59.1
Gold (S per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
341.6
348.4
365.4
19.3
20.0
17.7
16.7
17.6
17.0
17.5
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
67.2
64.8
64.8
65.6
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.9
5.2
5.0
5.1
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
74.0
71.8
71.8
75.0
Tin a (0 per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
357.4
250.5
244.0
245.5
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
8,673
7,567
7,112
6,360
US Steel
NA
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Zinc a (0 per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
35.4
28.5
33.8
36.5
36.5
Lumber Index
(1980=100)
Industrial Materials Index c
85
71
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
1The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985a
1986,
1st Qtr
May
June
July
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674
52,931
54,039
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
39,758
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
15,022
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,898
8,848
8,808
8,800
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,480
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,711
2,538
2,196
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
856
826
848
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,077
927
915
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,556
7,998
7,964
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,376
2,527
2,547
2,500
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
758
845
753
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,422
4,626
4,664
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
17,180
18,000
19,300
20,320
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
602
600
600
600
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
275
300
300
285
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
160
160
170
170
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,223
1,305
1,235
1,250
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,890
2,100
2,200
2,300
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,732
1,700
1,700
1,900
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
1,169
1,400
1,500
1,600
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,150
Neutral Zone c
370
317
390
410
355
276
220
300
340
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,417
1,550
1,490
1,600
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
352
360
430
400
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,256
4,250
5,100
5,600
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,287
1,405
1,505
1,505
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,541
1,550
1,570
1,620
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,397
14,417
14,239
14,281
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,350
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,506
2,557
2,557
Other
411
410
412
409
393
425
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
16,058
15,296
Japan
4,444
4,204
West Germany
2,120
2,024
France
1,744
__
1,632
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
Ito y b
1,705
1,618
Canada
1,617
1,454
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
15,184 15,708 15,726
4,193 4,349 4,123
2,009 2,012 2,060
- - _-1_
1,594 ,531 1,498
1,290 1,624 1,402
1,594 1,513 1,516
1,354 1,348 1,342
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Jan Feb Mar
A
M
J
pr
ay
une
Jul
United States
4,406
3,488
3,329
3,426
3,201
3,329 2,993 3,000
3,701
3,872
_
4
675 4
648
apan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,377
--------------
3,126 4,273 3,673
3,469
2,756
,
,
2
798
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
1,321 1,258 1,429
1,285
1,340
,
1
265
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
1,430 1,420 1,380
1
608
1
235
,
1
454
United Kingdom
736
565
456
482
523
493 445 494
,
610
,
767
,
442
Italy
1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,462
1,593 1,593 1,593
Canada
521
334
247
244
283
353 424 260
185
276
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May
June
Jul
15,923
16,056
16,188
15,743 15,852
15,998
16
075
4,661
5,002
4,547
9
3
24
3
568
3
577
,
_
,
.
_
,
,
2,096
2,406
406
2 , 1 4 1
2,640 2,388
2 473
1,625
2008
1,525
1,701 1,245
1
387
1
383
1,286
1,483
1,447
1,427 1
330
,
,
,
1,718
1,855
1,535
1,495 1,345
1,329
1,336
1,351
1,168
1,237 1,302
1,368
1,370
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
OPEC Average a 30.87 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14
(Official Sales Price)
World Average Price NA NA NA NA NA 27.16 20.55 13.65 11.42 12.33
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
Average Crude Oil Sales Prices
287027.16
F771
'The 1973 price is derived from posted prices, 1974-84 prices are derived
from OPEC official sales prices, and beginning in 1985, prices are a
measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100590001-8