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Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
26 September 1986
DI EEI 86-020
26 September 1986
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Energy
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Crude Oil Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100560001-1
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United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
0.5 -10.0 5.3 8.8
3.1 -3.0 -14.5 48.9
11.7 7.1 89.8
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr Ist Qtr 2nd Qtr
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
3.8
-0.4
0.7 4.4 0.7
Italy
Canada
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr Jul Aug
United States
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
0
-0.8
West Germany
France
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.2
5.0 3.6 7.6
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
4.7
3.0 7.9 5.4
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Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
7.1
6.6
11.2
7.0
9.1
7.9
16.8 15.8 18.1 22.9
Japan
3.7
7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
7.7
9.4 7.5 6.5 13.0
West Germany
1.1
3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
9.8
11.3 21.3 -0.4
France
12.2
13.9
8.7
20.4
1.9 16.4
United Kingdom
NA
NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
9.2
33.0 14.7 14.0 27.3
Italy
11.2
11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
8.6
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.2
3.2
4.1
-13.4
-1.9 28.7 41.6 -3.3
Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate a
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.7
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
10.2
8.6
8.4
8.6
8.5
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.7
10.0
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.2
10.3
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
10.7
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.7
11.7
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.5
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
a Prior to May 1986, unemployment rates for France were estimated.
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Foreign Trade a
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
213.3
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.4
-108.1
-132.0
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.4
168.1
173.9
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
55.9
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.2
Imports
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.0
93.7
100.9
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.3
99.4
103.5
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.3
-5.7
-2.6
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.4
78.8
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.4
90.8
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-12.0
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
Current Account Balance a
1986
47.7 51.3
29.9 29.0
17.8 22.3
55.1 60.9
45.0 47.6
10.1 13.3
30.4 29.8
30.3 30.9
0.1 -1.1
26.2 26.8
28.4 29.2
-2.1 -2.4
23.3 24.5
26.3 24.3
-2.9 0.2
21.9 21.3
20.3 19.2
1.6 2.1
17.6
16.9
17.7
9.2
10.1
9.8
8.4
6.9
7
9
17.6
21.4
.
21.2
14.4
16.0
16.0
3.2
5.4
5
3
9.7
10.1
.
10.8
10.0
10.3
10.6
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
8.9
8.8
9.0
10.0
9.7
9.9
-1.1
-0.9
-0
9
8.1
8.2
.
8.6
8.0
8.1
9.0
0.1
0.1
-0
4
7.2
6.7
.
7.0
6.4
6.4
7.2
0.7
0.3
-0.2
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
May
Jun
Jul
United States 6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-106.5
-117.7
-34.0
-34.7
6.9
8.3
2.7
1.9
2
7
1.1
0.3
.
a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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Export Prices in US $
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.7
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
t Germany
W
14 . 9
-28
-3.2
-7.1
0
es
ce
F
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
ran
ited Kingdom
U
n
It
l
a
y
Canada
Import Prices in US $
Japan
West Germany
-2.4
-5.0 -2.8 -4.3
-8.6 -4.7 -5.2 -4.8 -1.5
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Jun
Jul
-0.5
1.5
9.2
7.8
26.1
24.9
-3.5
_43.8
40.7
16.6
-2.4
48.8
33.2
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Jun
Jul
-7.2
-10.4
0
8_7
-5.3
-49.2
-2.2
39.0
9.8
-11.6
-24.1
6_7
2.4
-18.2
-8.2
-20.6
-11.6
3.8
-21.3
14.4
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Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr May Jun
Jul
Aug
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8 -11.3 -13.7 21.7
--17.2
Japan
9.3
-5_7
10.4
6.2
6.8
26.8 42.4 81.8 18.4
113.6
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.5 6.0 11.3 6.5
17.0
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
5.8 -10.4 -3.1 7.4
2.2
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0 9.5 11.8 3.7
-21.5
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
5.5 5.2 9.3 11.7
15.1
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-13.1 1.7 6.2 7.6
2.9
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2 33.5 42.8 -2.2
48.3
27.5
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3 17.1 19.5 -1.0
35.5
40.0
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
-
29.7 4.4 15.7 -2.8
27.7
28.1
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
30.1 14.5 18.8 -2.0
35.2
37.9
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-6.9 5.7 6.4 -13.1
6.8
-0.9
I st Qtr 2nd Qtr Apr
May
Jun
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
16.24
12.49
9.23
10.56
8.16
7.68 6.77 6.67
6.75
6.88
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
7.79
7.23
NA
6.66
6.52
6.38 5.98 6.12
5.98
5.82
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
12.19
8.82
5.78
5.96
5.40
4.51 4.52 4.47
4.55
4.55
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
8.96 7.41 7.55
7.27
7.41
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
12.26 10.09 10.41
10.14
9.72
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
16.00 12.71 13.66
12.50
11.97
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
11.08 9.03 9.52
8.78
8.80
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.41
7.91 7.00 6.95
6.99
7.07
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Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported,
$ per metric ton)
(Total world
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
109.8
108.5
108.9
NA
,
Beef (4 per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
US Ports)
b
f
o
112.4
107.4
111.1
101.0
96.6
97.6
91.3
90.0
91.5
.
.
.
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
87.8
84.4
89.6
90.3
Cocoa (4 per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
82.6
87.6
89_1
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
1.73
1.49
1.47
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
$ per metric ton)
Rotterdam
i
f
c
150
123
148
150
125
116
116
98
87
,
.
.
.
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
f. Osaka, US 4/lb.)
i
index
c
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
45.51
36.35
37.03
.
,
.
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
$ per metric ton)
f
c
i
571
445
502
730
501
289
241
221
195
.,
.
.
US (No. 2, milled,
Rotterdam)
i
f
4% c
632
481
514
514
484
453
352
288
NA
.
.
.
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
Rotterdam)
i
f
c
573
362
339
310
249
236
224
230
NA
.
.
.
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
$ per metric ton)
Rotterdam
c
i
f
288
244
282
283
225
218
213
203
198
,
.
.
.
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
507
447
527
727
571
407
348
336
273
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
252
219
238
197
157
188
184
183
185
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
spot prices 4 per pound)
Caribbean Ports
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
5.83
7.45
5.58
5.50
,
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(4 per pound)
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
85.6
79.8
86.5
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
$ per metric ton)
Rotterdam
i
f
c
210
187
183
182
169
172
158
129
124
,
.
.
.
88
78
86
92
81
95
94
83
81
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Industrial Materials Prices
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr Jul
Aug
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81
0
81
0
LME cash
57.4
44.9
65.1
56.8
47.2
51.4
53.1
.
50.7
.
51
0
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
50.0
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
.
40.0
Copper a (bar, 0 per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
64.5
64.5
60.6
59
1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
341.6
348.4
.
365
4
Lead a (0 per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
16.7
17.6
17.0
.
17
5
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
73.3
69.8
68.4
67.2
64.8
64.8
.
65.6
Nickel ($ per pound)
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3
2
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
.
1
8
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
.
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475
0
475
0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
383.1
420.1
.
438.0
.
495.7
Synthetic b
47.5
45.7
44.0
44.4
44.1
42.8
38.7
38
3
NA
Natural C
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
41.7
40.1
.
43
6
43
5
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.9
5.2
.
5
0
.
5
1
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
74.0
71.8
.
71
8
.
75
0
Tina (Q per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
357.4
250.5
.
244
0
.
245
5
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
8,673
7,567
.
7,112
.
6,360
US Steel
NA
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
590.2
611.6
617.8
551.2
554.4
556.6
556.6
34.7
41.5
35.4
28.5
33.8
36
5
36
5
Lumber Index
(1980=100)
95
84
114
105
103
100
121
.
111
.
NA
Industrial Materials Index r
(1980=100)
85
71
82
76
69
69
70
67
67
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
rThe industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
81
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 a
19
1st Qtr
May
June
July
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674
52,931
54,039
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
39,758
ed countries
Develo
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
15,022
p
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,898
8,848
8,808
8,800
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,480
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,711
2,538
2,196
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
856
826
848
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,077
927
915
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,556
7,998
7,964
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,376
2,527
2,547
2,500
t
E
598
665
689
827
874
758
845
753
gyp
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,422
4,626
4,664
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
17,180
18,000
19,300
20,320
eria
Al
803
701
699
638
645
602
600
600
600
g
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
275
300
300
285
Gabon 151
154
157
152
153
160
160
170
170
Indonesia 1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,223
1,305
1,235
1,250
Iran 1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,890
2,100
2,200
2,300
993
Ira
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,732
1,700
1,700
1,900
q
Kuwait b 947
663
881
912
862
1,169
1,400
1,500
1,600
a 1,137
Lib
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,150
y
Neutral Zone 370
317
390
410
355
276
220
300
340
eria 1,445
Ni
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,417
1,550
1,490
1,600
g
Qatar 405
328
295
399
302
352
360
430
400
Saudi Arabia b 9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,256
4,250
5,100
5,600
UAE 1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,287
1,405
1,505
1,505
Venezuela 2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,541
1,550
1,570
1,620
Communist countries 14,235
14,282
14,397
14,417
14,239
14,281
USSR 11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,350
China 2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,506
2,557
2,557
Other 411
410
412
409
393
425
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Jul
United States
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,726
15,923
16,056
16,188
15,743
15,85
115,998
16,309
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,123
4,661
5,002
4,547
3,924
3,568
3,577
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
2,060
2,096
2,406
2,141
2,640
2,388
2,473
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,493
1,626
2,009
1,525
1,702
1,245
1,284
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,402
1,286
1,483
1,447
1,427
1,330
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,516
1,718
1,855
1,535
1,495
1,345
1,506
Canada
1,617
1,454
1,354
1,348
1,259
1,261
1,280
1,109
1,239
1,325
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Jul
United States
4,406
3,488
3,329
3,426
3,201
3,329
2,993
3,000
3,701
3,872
4,675
4,291
Japan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,377
3,126
4,273
3,673
3,469
2,756
2,798
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
1,321
1,253
1,429
1,285
1,340
1,263
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
1,430
1,420
1,380
1,608
1,235
1,454
United Kingdom
736
565
456
482
523
493
445
494
610
767
442
Italy
1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,462
Canada
521
334
247
244
283
353
424
260
185
276
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la
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OPEC Average a
(Official Sales Price)
World Average Price
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
30.87
34.50
33.63
29.31
28.70
28.14
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27.16
20.55
13.65
11.42
12.33
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
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Average Crude Oil Sales Price"
l
24.8
1
20.32
6.53
14.03 14.06
12.87
12.33
1.42
M ^~ V
: G ry
N n
34.5 0 33.63
30.87 29.31 2
171 70
I-7 --I -7.16
The 1973 price is derived from posted prices. 1974-84 price, are derived
From OPI'.C official sales prices. and heginning in 1985. prices are a
measure of tt erage world sales prices.
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STAT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1