(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100440001-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: July 8, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 1, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
E""F;\ Directorate of
Intelligence
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 86-016
1 August 1986
Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
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Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100440001-4
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production 1
Gross National Product 1
Consumer Prices
Money Supply 2
Unemployment Rate 2
Foreign Trade 3
Current Account Balance
Import Prices in US $ 4
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices 6
Industrial Materials Prices 7
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Crude Oil Prices
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 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
11.6
2.3
1.0
0.4
3.5
11.1
4.6
Italy
-1.6
-3.1
-3.2
3.3
1.2
Year
United States
2.5
-2.1
3.6
6.4
2.7
2.3
4.1 2.1 3.8
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.5
5.7
2.7 5.8 -2.1
3.0
2.4
6.8
6.8 -0.2 -6.5
5.8
1.0 2.3 5.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
0
-0.8 1.5 0.6
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
0.8
1.6 2.6
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
_
4.5
0.3 1.0 1.1
8.6
6.2
5.0 5.8 6.4
4.0
4.8
2.9 5.0 0.1
1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
0.5
8.0
-4.7
-5.6
0.7
0
4.0
6.1
11.7
16.4
-55.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
2nd Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Ist Qtr
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Money Supply, M-1 a
7.1 6.6 11.2 7.0
3.7 7.1 3.7 2.8
Percent change from previous period
.seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
9.1
5.0
4.4
8.7
West Germany 1.1 3.6 10.2 3.3
France 12.2 13.9
United Kingdom NA NA 13.0 14.7
Italy 11.2 11.6 15.1 12.3
Canada 3.8 0.7 10.2 3.2
Based on amounts in national currency units.
n Including MI-A and MI-B.
Unemployment Rate a
16.7
13.7
4.1
1st Qtr
Apr May
Jun
7.9
15.5 25.9
15.6
7.7
9.2 9.1
9.8
1.9-----5.8
25.4
17.0
-17.0 -3.1
9.1
31.6 4.7
14.7
8.9
11.9
-13.3
-14.0 9.9
28.7
Year
4th Qtr
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
May
Jun
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.0
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.7
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.0
10.2
8.6
8.5
8.4
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.6
10.0
9.7
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.1
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
12.4
12.4
12.9
-11. 3
11.5
11.6
11.6
11.7
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.0
11.5
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
10.2
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.5
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 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
United States b
Exports 233.5
Imports 261.0
Balance -27.5
212.3
244.0
-31.6
200.7
258.0
-57.4
217.6
325.7
-108.1
213.3
345.3
-132.0
Japan
Exports 149.6
Imports 129.5
Balance 20.1
138.2
119.6
18.6
145.4
114.0
31.4
168.1
124.1
44.0
173.9
118.0
55.9
West Germany
Exports 175.4
Imports c 163.4
Balance 11.9
176.4
155.3
21.1
169.5
152.9
16.6
171.9
153.1
18.8
184.3
158.9
25.3
France
Exports 106.3
Imports 115.6
Balance -9.3
96.4
110.5
-14.0
95.1
101.0
-5.9
97.5
100.3
-2.8
101.9
104.5
-2.6
United Kingdom
Exports 102.5
Imports 94.6
Balance 7.9
97.1
93.1
4.
92.1
93.7
-1.6
93.6
99.3
-5.7
100.9
103.5
-2.5
Exports 75.4
Imports 91.2
Balance -15.9
73.9
86.7
-12.8
72.8
80.6
-7.9
73.4
84.4
-10.9
78.8
90.8
-11.9
Canada
Exports 70.5
Imports 64.4
Balance 6.1
-
68.5
54.1
14.4
73.7
59.3
14.4
86.5
70.6
15.9
88.0
75.7
12.3
Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
Year
1st Qtr
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
47.8
30.0
17.8
15.8
9.4
6.4
16.7
9.7
7.0
17.6
9.1
8.5
55.0
45.0
10.1
30.4
30.3
0.1
17.4
14.2
3.2
9.9
10.2
-0.4
21.8
17.2
4.6
9.9
10.6
-0.7
17.6
14.4
3.2
9.7
10.0
-0.3
10.1
10.3
-0.2
26.2
28.3
-2.0
23.3
25.7
-2.4
21.6
19.8
1.8
8.4
10.2
--1.8
7.6
8.4
-0.8
6.7
5.8
1.0
9.1
9.5
-0.4
8.2
8.2
0
7.4
6.6
0.8
8.9
9.9
-1.0
8.1
7.9
0.2
7.0
6.4
0.6
8.8
9.7
-0.9
8.2
7.9
0.3
4th Qtr
1st Qtr
Mar
Apr
May
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-106.5
-117.7
-33.7
-33.7
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
16.0
12.7
6.8
7.9
7.7
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.8
7.3
6.9
2.1
3.6
2.7
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
United-Kingdom---
15.3
8.5
4.7
1.9
5.0
1.1
0.7
-1.0
0.7
0.1
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.9
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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 I.
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Export Prices in US $
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0 '
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
Import Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-9.2
-29.6
-6.8
_ -2.4
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
46.8
-66.7
-59.0
_54.3
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
12.9
_-2.2
-22.9
-7.9
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
-2.0
26.2 _
-3.6
--,--3-.9
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
0
-38.4
-19.8
Canada
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
6.5
0
21.1
-2.6
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
-12.0
7.7
-2.4
2.1
111.0
-5.7
48.1
12.9
60.6
32.8
0.2
20.4
34.7
28.0
-16.0
26.4 _
6-.-0
9.1
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 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8
-20.3
-4.5
-13.7
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
26.8
26.2
22.1
81.8
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
5.8
2.0
-31.1
-3.1
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0
2.5
38.0
11.8
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
3.1
-3.8
5.5
4.2
-0.1
9.3
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2
33.4
22.8
42.8
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3
26.1
3.7
19.5
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
29.7
23.7
-39.1
15.7
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
-13.2
-32.8
-2.5
-13.4
-18.8
-2.9
-13.3
-12.3
0.1
-11.9
-15.6
-5.1
-3.0
-8.6
-5.4
1.7
30.1
-6.9
40.3
26.2
4.1
28.7
-4.7
13.1
19.3
18.8
6.4
-2.2
-1.0
-2.8
-7.7
-2.0
-13.1
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
United States
16.24
12.49
9.23
10.56
8.16
7.68
6.77
6.67
6
75
6
88
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
.
.
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
8.96
7.41
7.55
7.27
7
41
interbank money market
(3 months)
.
United Kingdom
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
12.26
10.09
10.41
10.14
9
72
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
.
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
11.08
9.03
9.52
8
78
8
80
finance paper (3 months)
.
.
Eurodollars
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.41
7.91
7.00
6.95
6
99
7
07
3-month deposits
.
.
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Agricultural Prices
Ist Qtr
2nd Qtr
May
Jun
Bananas
232.0
243.0
110.3
109.8
NA
109.2
NA
Fresh imported,
metric ton)
(Total world, $ per
,
Beef (d per pound)
Australia
112.4
107.4
111.1
101.0
96.6
97.6
91.3
91.2
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (Q per pound)
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
82.6
81.4
81.4
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
1.73
1.77
1.51
Corn
123
148
150
125
116
116
117
118
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Cotton
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
45.51
46.58
40.67
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US-0/lb.)
Palm Oil
571
445
502
730
501
289
241
237
243
(United Kingdom 5% hulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
632
481
514
514
484
453
352
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
288
244
282
283
225
218
213
215
210
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
507
447
527
727
571
407
348
345
351
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
252
219
238
197
157
188
184
184
181
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices Q per pound)
Tea
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
85.6
85.9
79.7
Average Auction (London)
Wheat
210
187
183
182
169
172
158
163
140
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index a (1980=100)
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
Aluminum (c per pound)
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
LME cash
57.4
44.9
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper (bar, c per pound)
Gold (S per troy ounce)
Lead (c per pound)
Manganese Ore
(48'7 Mn, S per long ton)
Nickel ($ per pound)
53.0
79.0
460.0
50.9
67.1
375.5
Platinum (S per troy ounce)
Major producer
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
Rubber( c per pound)
Synthetic i,
47.5
45.7
Natural ,
56.8
45.4
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton-)
92.0
63.1
Tin (e per pound)
641.4
581.6
Tungsten Ore
18,097
13,426
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
I, is Steel
543.5
567.3
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Zinc (e per pound)
38.4
33.7
(1980=100)
Industrial Materials Index f
85
71
(1980-100)
Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
77.7 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0
65.1 56.8 47.2 51.4 53.1 52.8 53.7
50.0 50.0 43.9 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
72.0 62.4 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.4 64.1
424.4 360.0 317.2 342.6 341.6 342.6 342.5
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
56.2
11.4
73.2
590.9
10,177
590.2
34.7
49.6 42.0 41.7 40.1 40.1 41.0
This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
Non-Communist countries
Developed countries
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Other
Non-OPEC LDCs
Mexico
Egypt
Other
OPEC
Algeria
Ecuador
Gabon
Indonesia
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait b
Libya
Neutral Zone
Nigeria
Qatar
Saudi Arabia b
Venezuela
Communist countries
USSR
China
Other
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985a 1986a
1st Qtr Feb Mar Apr
55,837 53,092 52,625 53,674 52,931 54,029 54,684 53,683 - 53,520-
38,692 39,758 40,423 39,417 - 39,181
12,886 13,276 13,864 14,302 14,730 15,022 15,070 14,872 13,949
8,680 8,735 8,933 8,898 8,934 8,821 8,791
1,356 1,411 1,457 1,480 ] 480 -1,4-80---- 1,300
1,811 2,094 2,299 2,535 2,533 2,711 2,699 2,699 2,554
501 518 614 700 785 856 870 860 319
717 736 915 921 1,022 1,077 1,087 1,012 985
7,515 7,845 7,556 7,393 7,605 7,712
598 665 689 827 874 758 600 800 760
4,422 4,393 4,586 4,594
22,680 18,901 17,541 17,440 16,117 17,180 17,960 16,940 17,520
803 701 699 638 645 602 550 600 600
211 211 236 253 280 275 220 300 300
151 154 157 152 153 160 160 160 160
1,604 1,324 1,385 1,466 1,235 1,223 1,300 1,175 1,215
1,381 2,282 2,492 2,187 2,258 1,890 2,200 1,800 2,000
993 972 922 1,203 1,437 1,732 1,880 1,650 1,500
947 663 881 912 862 1,169 1,100 1,400 1,400
1,137 1,183 1,076 1,073 1,069 1,000 1,000 900 900
370 317 390 410 355 276 300 230 240
1,445 1,298 1,241 1,393 1,464 1,417 1,400 1,550 1,650
9,625 6,327 4,867 4,444 3,290 4,256 4,600 4,000 4,600
1,500 1,248 1,119 1,097 1,146 1,287 1,400 1305 1,255
2,108 1,893 1,781 1,813 1,621 1,541 1,550 1,520 1,520
14,239 14,271 14,261 14,266 14,339
11,800 11,830 11,864 11,728 11,350 11,350 11,350 11,350 11,390
2,024 2,042 2,121 2,280 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496 2,496
411 410 412 409 393 425 415 420 453
Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,697
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,121
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
2,060
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,493
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,402
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,516
Canada
1,617
1,454
1,354
1,348
1,344
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
15,923
16,056
16,188
15,833
15,843
16,150
4,661
5,005
4,532
3,949
2,096
2,406
2,141
2,640
1,626
2,009
1,525
1,679
1,222
1,286
1,483
1,447
1,416
1,718
1,855
1,535
1,495
1,346
1,374
1,183
1,239
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States
4,406
3,488
3,329
3,402
3,216
Japan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,377
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
United Kingdom
736
565
456
482
523
Italy
1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,462
Canada
521
334
247
244
283
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
3,329
_
2,993 3,000
3,701
4,085
4
508
3,126
4,273 3,673
,
1,321
1,225 1,429
1,285
1,404
1,430
1,420 1,380
1,608
493
445 494
353
423
Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
 ' L.
Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
OPEC Average
(Official Sales Price)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Ist Qtr 2nd Qtr May Jun
28.09 28.08 28.07 28.11
4.06
World Average Price NA NA NA NA NA 27.16 20.67 NA 1 NA
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
Average Crude Oil Sales Pricea
US S per barrel
3
08
7
2
9.3
1
2
8.7
0 27.1
18.67
11.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93
3.39
F-I
v .o
M ~ R M
N N '0 N
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
24.8
1
20.32
16.53
-
-
-
-
---
-
14.03 14.06
--------
The 1973 price is derived from posted prices. 1974-84 prices
are derived from OPEC official sales prices, and beginning
in 1985. prices are a measure of average world sales prices.
Unclassified
309898 7.86
34.50 33.63
6
Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4
Approved For Release 2011/07/08: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100440001-4