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Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 86-009
25 April 1986
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
This publication is prepared for the use of US Government
officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to
meet their specific requirements. US Government officials may
obtain additional copies of this document directly or through
liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency.
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or: National Technical Information Service
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Comments and queries on this paper may be directed to the DOCEX
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Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US S
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Energy
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
i Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
2.6
-7.2
5.9
11.6
2.3
1.9
1.9 -8.2 -5.6
Japan
1.0
0.4
3.5
11.1
West Germany
- _ 2.3
-3.2
_ 0.3
2.4
4.5
1.7
France
-2.6
-1.5
1.1
2.5
0.4
0
-8.7 19.9
United Kingdom
-3.9 -
2.1
3.9
1.3
4.6
0.7
8.1
21.9
Italy
-1.6
-3.1
-3.2
3.3
1.2
-1.8
_
36.7 23.1
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
2d Qtr
3d Qtr 4th Qtr Ist Qtr
United States
2.5
-2.1
3.5
6.5
2.2
1.1
3.0 0.7
3.2
Japan
-
-
3.0 7.2
West Germany
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.6
1.2
3.7
2.1 2.0
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.3
2.6
3.3
6.4
-0.7
Italy
Canada
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
4.3 4.1 -4.6
apan
4
9
--------- -------
.
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
2.1 0.2 0 -6.6
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
1.0 1.1 3.2 2.0
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
3.2 -0.6 -3.1 1
8
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
.
3.2 5.9 3.4 1
4
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
.
6.8 3.6 5.3 5
4
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
.
4.3 5.4 2.6 3.0
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
7.1
6.6
11.2
7.0
9.1
11.1
1.2
7.5
15.0
Japan
3.7
7.1
3.0
2.9
4.6
0
7.5
-8.3
West Germany
1.1
3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
15.5
-15.9
10.1
U nited Kingdom
NA
NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
25.1
-7.6
1.8
34.6
Italy
Canada
Based on amounts in national currency units.
Including M1-A and MI-B.
Unemployment Rate
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.6
7.2 _
7.1
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6 _
._
_
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.1
9.0
9.2
9.2
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.6
9.9
9.7
10.2
10.4
10.5
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
12.4
12.6
12.9
13.0
13.0
13.0
13.1
Italy
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
10.2
9.8
9.8
9.6
,, Unemployment rates for France are estimated.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
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Foreign Trade
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
213.3
52.6
52
4
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.2
326.2
345.8
85.4
.
91.6
31
0
31
1
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.6
-108.5
-132.6
-32.8
-39.2
.
.
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.5
168.1
174.0
43.6
47.3
16
3
16
0
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.1
124.1
118.0
29.2
30.5
.
10
4
.
10
5
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
56.0
14.4
16.9
.
5.9
.
5.4
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.3
48.6
51.3
18
9
19
1
Imports
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
159.0
41.7
43.9
.
15
4
.
15
6
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
6.9
7.4
.
3
5
.
3
5
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
26.2
28.8
.
10
2
.
10
3
9
9
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
27.0
29.2
.
9
7
.
10
3
.
10
2
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
-0.8
-0.4
.
0.5
.
0
.
0
4
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.1
93.6
100.9
25.8
27
3
8
9
8
8
.
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.7
99.3
103.5
26.4
.
27.6
.
8
7
.
9
3
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.7
-2.5
-0.6
-0.3
.
0.2
.
-0
5
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.5
78.8
20.4
22
5
7
2
.
8
6
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.3
90.7
21.3
.
26.0
.
8
9
.
9
4
Balance
a
-15.9
-12.8
-7.8
-10.9
-11.9
0.9
-3.5
.
-1.6
.
-0.8
Canad
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
__
21.8
22.5
7
7
7
2
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
19.6
19.6
.
7
0
.
7
0
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
2.2
2.9
.
0.7
.
0.1
Seasonally adjusted.
Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
Current Account Balance
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
United States
-8.1
-46.0
-107.4
Year
-117.7
3d Qtr
-29.3
4th Qtr
-36.6
Dec
Jan
Feb
Japan
20.8
35 0
49.2
13.1
16.0
6.8
I.9
3
9
West Germany
-
3.3
4.2
6.0
13.7
2.0
7.0
2.8
1.4
.
3
0
France
-4 7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.6
0
0.8
.
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.5
1 3
4.0
1.5
1.3
0.7
I.6
0
4
Italy
- .6
-5.7
0.6
-3.2
.
Canada
2.1
1.4
1.9
-1.9
-1.1
-0.9
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
..I I I
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Export Prices in US $
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
5.2
Canada
3.9
-2.0
-1.3
-8.3
Import Prices in US $
Percent change -front previous period
at an annual rate
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
-0.6
-2.7
-2.0
0.3
11.0
0.6
5.8 _--
_ 38.6
24.2
111.0
0
37.5
44.6
32.1
59.4
2.5
35.8
30.8
2.3
30_1
13 8
11.3
-I .
6
0.3
21.1
34.8
-8.1
11.0
-10.3
Percent change front previous period
at an annual rate
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7 1.7
---
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0 -2.8
West Germany
-8.6
--4.7
-5.2 -4.8
--------
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0 3.8
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7 -4.5
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6 -3.7
Canada
8.7
-1.1
-3.2 -4.9
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
-2.4
= 0.1
2.9
5.0
13.4
4.3
2.8
3.2
16.5
46.8
-1.5
19.6
27.2
6.5
4.6
0.3
18 9
0.5
17.3
8.3
-13.6
2.0
-1.0
7.4
24.2-
-6.4
12.4
-9.6
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Year 4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
Trade-Weighted
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3 -15.4
-16.0
Japan
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8 69.1
-5.0
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7 11.6
6.5
France
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7 11.8
4.1
United Kingdom
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0 -6.5
-39.5
Italy _
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
_
-3.8 4.5
6.3
Canada
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6 -12.1
-14.7
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3 42.9
14.1
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3 32.1
27.4
--France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
31.6
26.3 41.0
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-
-3.0 17.8
-12.8 -0.3
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
8.6 26.3
29.6 40.9
Money Market Rates
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
--
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
5.78
5.96
5.40 4.86
4.81
4.63
NA
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97 9.81
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
12.21 11.67
11.60
12.05
NA
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95 14.37
14.52
14.79
NA
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
Mar
23.7
40.3
26.2
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported.
(rota) world, $ per metric ton)
Beef Ic er pound)
p
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (c per pound)
Coffee ($ per pound)
Corn
(US tt3 yellow,
f Rotterdam $ per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US c/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5`9,, bulk,
c.i.f., S per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
4`7 c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(100`7, grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US ax2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill.
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices 0 per pound)
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(e per pound)
Wheat
(US 42. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index ,~ (1980= 100)
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
lstQtr
NA
Jan
109.4
Feb
109.3
Mar
I'll
112.1
108.4
110.7
101.1
96.6
97.6
98.5
97.7
96.6
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
87.8
92.3
87.0
84.2
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
100.6
95.5
91.0
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
2.04
1.95
2.04
150
123
148
150
125
116
119
115
113
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
52.13
54.66
54.00
571
445
502
730
501
289
342
283
243
632
481
514
514
484
453
450
455
455
573
362
339
310
249
236
238
237
232
288
244
282
283
225
218
218
217
218
507
447
527
727
571
405
457
395
362
252
219
238
197
157
188
186
186
193
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
5.83
4.87
5.55
7.07
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
82.1
85.7
91.5
210
187
183
182
169
172
175
175
166
88
78
86
92
8)
95
95
93
97
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
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Industrial Materials Prices
1st Qtr
Jan
Feb
Mar
Aluminum (? per pound)
Major US producer
77.7 81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81
0
65.1 56.8
47.2
51.4
50.6
50.6
.
53
1
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ -per metric ton)
50.0 50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
.
40.0
Copper (bar, ? per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0 64.2
64.5
64.5
64.2
63.8
65
6
Cold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
424.4 360.0
317.2
342.6
343.1
338.9
.
345
7
Lead .' (? per pound)
32.9
.
Manganese Ore
(48'7( , Mn. $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3 69.8
68.4
67.2
67.2
67.2
67.2
Nickel ($ per pound)
-
- -
-
-
3.5
3.2
3.2 3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3
2
3
2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1 2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
.
1
8
.
1
9
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
.
.
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475
0
475
0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
326.7
-
422.6 358.2
291.0
383.1
362.6
.
373.8
.
413.0
Rubber (? per pound)
Synthetic b
47.5
45.7
44.0
44.4
44.1
NA
43.9
42.8
NA
Natural
cf a
AC A
-
56.2 49.6
42.0
41.7
40.7
42.5
42
0
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5 7.9
6.0
5.9
.
5.7
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0-63.1
73.2 86.4
74.4
NA
Tin a (? per pound)
641.4 581.6
590.9 556.6
543.2
357.4
NA
385.6
329
2
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097 13,426
10,177 10,243
10,656
8,673
8,588
8,745
.
8,687
$ per long ton)
Zinc (? per pound)
38.4 33.7
34.7 41.5
35.4
28.5
29.4
27
6
28
4
Lumber Index
(I 980=100)
95 84
114 105
103
NA
NA
.
104
.
NA
Industrial Materials Index r
(1980=100)
85 71
82 76
69
68
66
68
Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
I This index is compiled by using the average of I I types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
1982
1983
1984
1985'
1986,
1981
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr Dec Jan
837
55
092
53
52
633
53,691
53,356
52,373
55,015 55,051, 53,757----
world
,
,
,
471
9
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
37,588
,
40,707 40,760 3
083
15
tries
d
l
886
12
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
14,643
,
14,958 14,860_
coun
ope
Deve
,
572
8
658
8
680
8
8,735
8,933
8,954
8,933 8,936 8,942
United States
,
,
,
285
1
270
1
356
1
1,411
1,457
1,444
1,500 - 1,480
1,476
Canada
,
,
,
_
_
811
1
094
2
299
2
2,535
2,533
2,399
2,607 2,481
2,734
Unitcd Kingdom
,
,
,
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
823
870 870
839
1
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,023
1,072 1,073
_
,_ _
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,922
7,888 7,915 _
7,678
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,738
2,721 2,733
860
2,510
860
598
665
689
827
874
890
856
--
kgypt
--
4
308
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,294
4,31_1_--- 4,322-
,
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
15,023
17,861 17,985
16,710
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
616
660 650
650
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
282
287 290_
300
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
153
160 160
160
0
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,203
1,286 1100
1,20
I
381
1
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
2,335
2,301 2,400
1-,70
ran _
,
650
1
68
1
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
,
1,4821,666-
---
,
Iraq
947
663
881
912
862
800 899 900 ____'_1,000-
Kuwait
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
933 1,234 1,300
1,100
Neutral Zone
370
317
390
410
355
306 391 360
3
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,214 1,686 1,620_
1,300
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
312 312 335_
-400
Saudi Arabia
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3.290
2,564 4,067 4,500
4,200
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,193 1,242 1,165
1,165
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,630 1,670 1,555
1,555
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,405
14,434
14,664
14,785 14,308 14,291
14,286
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,749
11,866 11,367 11,350
11,350
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,286
2.496
2,504 2,521 2,521
-
2,496-
Other
_
411
410
420
420
419
415 420 420
440
Preliminary.
1, Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
1982
1983
1984
United States 16,058 15,296
Japan 4,444 4,204
West G
2
15,184
4,193
15,708
4,349
Year 2d Qtr
15,697 15,452
4,124 3,580
---------
3d Qtr
15,557
3,839
4th Qtr
15,748
4,376
Jan
15,923
4,592
Feb
16,773
ermany
,120 2,024
France 1
744 1
632
2,009
1
2,012
2 077
2,034
2,258
2,018
,
,
United Kingdom 1,325 1,345
Italy n 1,705 1,618
Canada 1,617 1,454
,594
1,290
1,594
-- --- ---
1,354
1,531
1,624
1,513
------
1,348
1,493
1,398
1,511
1,350
1,342
1,208
1,281
1,286
1.310
1,230
1,417
1,366
1,569
1,292
1,642
1,419
1,622
1,718
2,003
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losse
Principal products only prior to 1981.
s
Bi
S
g
even: Crude Oil Imports
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Dec-
Jan
Feb
United States 4,406
3,488
3,329
3
402
3
216
3
17
-
-
,
,
1
3,662
3,640
3,329
2
993
Japan 3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,377
3,003
3 619
,
West Germany 1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,28
4
1,248
1,210
1 15p-
France 1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
-
1,476
1,421
1,590
1,690
1,430
United Kingdom 736
565
456
482
444
Italy 1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,166
Canada 521
334
247
244
31 1
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
Year 4th Qtr Jan Feb Mar
OPEC Average a 30.87 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 28.15 28.11 28.08 28.09
(Official Sales Price)
World Average Price NA NA NA NA NA 27.16 27.36 24.81 20.32 17.05
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Average Crude Oil Sales Pricea
US S per barrel
11.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93
3.39
1973 74 75 76 77 78
I
'The 1973 price is derived from posted prices, 1974-84 prices
are derived from OPEC official sales prices, and beginning
in 1985, prices are a measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100250001-5