(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100130001-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 14, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 28, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EE/ 86-005
28 February 1986
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
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Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100130001-8
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
u nitea Mates
2.6
-7.2
5.9
11.6
2.1
1.3
2.1 1.8 7.0 9.0
Japan
1.0
0.4
3.5
11.1
-2.6
11.2
-0.4 -2.9 -11.1 7.1
West Germany
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
2.4
-2.4
12.2
0.8 -11.9
France
----2.6
-1.5
1.1
2.3
-3.0
4.1
6.2 1.0 30.4 -36.0
United Kingdom
-3.9
2.1
3.9
1.3
11.5
7.6
0.7 2.2 15.2 -24.0
Italy
-1.6
-3.1
-3.2
3.1
7.4
1.1
-2.6 -2.7 31.8 -39.3
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
8.8
0.7
4.5
10.4 10.1
Percent change from previous period
seasonal/v adjusted at an annual rate
3d Qtr 4th Qtr
3.0 1.2
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
1.7
5.8 2.6
West Germany
-0.2
-1.0
1.6
2.7
-4.6
5.6 9.2 1.4
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.6
-0.6
3.7 2.1 2.0
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.3
2.3
3.4
4.5 -1.1
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.4
2.6
3.7
3.3 0.8
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
3d Qtr 4th Qtr Jan
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
2.4 4.1 4.5
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
2.1 2.2 1.9
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
0.1 1.0 -0.6
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
4.4 3.1 1.4
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
3.1 3.1 6.1
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
7.3 6.9 2.9
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
3.2 4.4 6.1
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Percent change from previous period
seasonall1v adjusted at an annual rate
United States 7.1 6.6
Japan 3.7 7.1
West Germany 1.1 3.6
France 12.2 13.9
United Kingdom NA NA
Italy 11.2 11.6
Canada
11.2
3.0
10.3
10.0
13.0
15.1
6.9
2.9
3.3
7.7
14.7
12.3
Based on amounts in national currency units.
Including MI-A and MI-B.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France 7.6 8.4
8.6
9.6
United Kingdom 10.0 11.6
12.4
12.6
Italy 8.4 9.1
9.9
10.4
Canada
Year
8.9
4.6
1st Qtr
10.5
10.3
2d Qtr
10.9
-0.3
3d Qtr
15.3
2.9
4th Qtr
11.0
--0.3
Dec
13.1
13.3
4.3
16.7
1.4
-0.4
8.1
14.6
43.8
10.2
9.9
10.2
10.5
10.5
10.5
13.1
13.1
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
10.2
10.6
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United States h
Exports
Imports
Balance
Japan
Exports
Imports
Balance
West Germany
138.2 145.5 168.1 40.5
119.6 114.0 124.1 28.9
18.6 31.4 44.0 11.6
233.5 212.3 200.7 217.6 55.7 52.6 52.6 52.4
261.0 244.0 258.2 325.6 84.4 86.4 84.5 90.8
-27.5 -31.6 -57.5 -108.0 -28.7 -33.8 -31.9 -38.4
Exports 175.4
Imports 163.4
Balance 11.9
France
176.4 169.5 171.9 41.1 43.3 48.8
155.3 152.9 153.1 36.4 37.2 41.7
21.1 16.6 18.8 4.6 6.2 7.1
Exports 106.3 96.4
Imports 115.6 110.5
Balance -9.3 -14.0
United Kingdom
Exports 102.5
Imports 94.6
Balance 7.9
Italy
Exports 75.4
Imports 91.2
Balance -15.9
Canada
Exports
Imports
Balance
95.1 97.5
101.0 100.3
-5.9 -2.8
97.1 92.1 93.7
93.1 93.7 99.1
4.0 -1.6 -5.3
47.3
30.3
17.0
51.0
43.6
7.4
22.5 24.4 26.1 28.8
23.6 24.7 26.8 29.2
-1.1 -0.4 -0.7 0.4
22.7 25.4 25.5 27.3
24.1 25.7 26.2 27.3
-1.4 -0.3 -0.7 0
73.9 72.8 73.5 17.7 18.3 20.4 22.5
86.7 80.6 84.3 21.5 21.9 21.2 26.1
12.8 - -7.9 -10.9 -3.8 -3.6 -0.8 -3.6
70.5 68.5 73.7 86.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 22.5
64.4 54.1 59.3 70.6 17.9 18.6 19.6 19.6
6.1 14.4 14.4 15.9 4.0 3.2 2.2 2.9
Seasonally adjusted.
Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
17.0
32.9
-15.9
15.8
9.9
5.9
17.4
14.6
2.8
9.6
10.0
0.4
9.3
9.1
0.2
8.5
9.6
-1.1
7.3
6.4
0.9
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Nov Dec
United -
States 6.3 -8.1 46.0 -107.4 24.2 27.7 -30.5
Japan 4.8 6.9 20.8 35.0 6.8 13.3 13.1 16.1 4.5 6.8
West Germany -6.8 3.3 4.2 6.0 1.6 3.1 2.0 7.0 1.9 2.8
France -4.7 12.1 -4.9 0.8 -0.7 0.6 0
U mte d Kingdom -15.3- 8.5 4.5 1.6 -0.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 0.4 1.0
Italy --8.6 -5.7 0.6 -3.2 --2.9
Canada -5.0 2.1 1.4 1.9 0.5 0 --I.I
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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 I.I
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Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States 9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
0.1
2.2
-2.9
-2.1 0 7. I
Japan 5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-11.9
14.1
5.9
39.1 28.0 -10.0-
West Germany -14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
-18.8
26.8
37.5
44.6 23.5 50.9
35.7
10.9
Italy -7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-13.8
21.4
20.0
--
Canada 3.9
-2.0
-1.3
-3.7
0.2
-7.2
8.0
-4.9 -1.5 -2.6
Import Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States 5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-9.5
-0.4
-0.1
3.1 11_2 __ 2.7
Japan 3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-10.9
3.1
2.6
3.0 -9.1 -24.9
West Germany -8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
France -7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-12.5
15.1
18.6
31.2_
United Kingdom NA
NA
-5.7
-4.6
-15.4
46.1
16.4
8.1 0.3 12.1
Italy 1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-9.4
22.6
6.6
Canada 8.7
-1.1
-3.3
-0.1
-4.3
-2.4
9.3
-4.2 1.0 -1.7
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Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-26.7
19.6
28.0
31.6
29.5
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-28.6
59.9
44.5
17.8
3.5
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-30.3
9.5
15.6
26.3
26.2
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-10.5
-5.0
2.7
-6.0
-17.9
so
Year
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
16.24
12.49
9.23
10.56
8.16
8.04
7.90
7.93
7.95
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
12.19
8.82
5.78
5.96
5.40
5.80
4.86
4.81
4.63
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
15.47
14.68
12.51
11.74
9.97
10.32
9.81
9.10
9.65
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
12.61
11.67
11.60
12.05
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
15.12
14.37
14.52
14.79
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
9.71
9.87
9.32
9.10
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
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Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef to per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (s per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US c/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
US (No. 2, milled,
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
573
362
339
310
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
288
244
282
283
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
507
447
527
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
252
219
238
197
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices ? per pound)
Tea
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
Average Auction (London)
(c per pound)
Wheat
210
187
183
182
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index a (1980=100)
88
78
86
92
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Jan
99.2 96.4 98.4 100.8 1.60
1.44 1.42 1.33 1.52 2.04
133 133 118 117 119
98.-7-
1.43
57.87
249
225
157 157 146 152 174 186
4.04 3.69 2.96 4.21 5.30 4.87
90.0
169
81
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Year
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr Jan
Aluminum (0 per pound)
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
77.7
D/.4
44.9
65.1
56.8
47.2
49.3
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper (bar, 0 per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.2
62.1
67.6
64.5
62.6
64.2
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
300.0
319.8
323.2
326.0
343.1
Lead (0 per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
17.3
17.3
18.3
17.8
- 16.7
Manganese Ore
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
69.7
68.4
68.4
67
2
67
2
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
.
.
Nickel ($ per pound)
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.2
1.9
Platinum (S per troy ounce)
_
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
New York dealers' price
Rubber (c per pound)
42.4
41.7
40.7
Natural
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
42.0
41.5
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.9
6.3
6.1
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
83.7
71.9
72.7
69.2
73.5
Tin ^ (o per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
_556.6
543.2
501.1
541.3
571.0
559.4
NA
Tungsten Ore
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
11,515
10,974
10
648
9
488
8
588
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
,
,
,
US Steel
543.5
567.3
590.2
611.6
617.8
617.8
617.8
617.8
617
8
617
8
(finished steel, composite,
$ -per long ton)
.
.
Zinc - (o per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
Lumber Index e
95
84
114
105
(1980= 100)
Industrial Materials Index r
85
71
82
76
(1980= 100)
Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
C This index is compiled by using the average of I I types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
55,837
53,092
52,633
53,685
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
Norway
501
518
614
700
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
Egypt
598
665
689
827
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
Algeria
803
701
699
638
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
Gabon
151
154
157
152
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
370
317
390
410
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
Qatar
405
328
295
399
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
'1,781
1,813
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,405
14,428
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
Other
411
410
420
420
Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
53,462
52,380
52,356
38,672
37,610
37,588
14,704
14,617
14,643
8,871
8,972
8,954
8,933
8,901
8,936
1,463
1,445
1,444
1,450
2,660
2,471
2,399
2,650
719
728
823
881
7,733
7,802
7,922
2,711
2,724
2,738
2,721
2,679
2,733
877
875
890
860
4,145
4,203
4,294
16,235
15,191
15,023
17,861
17,580
17,985
660
634
616
660
680
650
274
271
282
287
290
290
150
150
153
160
160
160
1,152
1,167
1,203
1,286
1,200
1,100
2,097
2,299
2,335
2,301
2,200
2,400
1,255
1,340
1,482
1,666
1,700
1,650
914
800
800
899
950 _
900
1,051
1,057
933
1,234
1,200
1,300
480
333
306
391
400
360
1,590
1,351
1,214
1,686
1,760
1,620
292
297
312
312
300
335
3,659
2,731
2,564
4,067
4,000
4,500
1,123
1,120
1,193
1,242
1,185
1,165
1,538
1,641
1,630
1,670
1,555
1,555
14,790
14,770
14,768
14,283
14,266
14,266
11,920
11,870
11,866
11,367
11,350
11,350
2,450
2,480
2,487
2,496
2,496
2,496
420
420
415
420
420
420
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 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Nov Dec
United States 16,058 15,296 15,184 15,708 15,813 15,452 15,557 15,601 15,411 16,100
Japan 4,444 4,204 4,193 4,349 4,720 3,580 3,833
West Germany 2,120 2,024 2,009 2,012 1,993 2,034 2,258 1,909
France 1,744 1,632 1,594 1,531 1,755 1,342 1310 1,556 1,596 1,504
United Kingdom 1,325 1,345 1,290 1,624 1,881 1,208 1,230
Italy b 1,705 1,618 1,594 1,513 1,718 1,281 1,417 1,644
Canada 1,617 1,454 1,354 1,348 1,327 1,285 1,367
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Nov Dec
United States 4,406_ 3,488 3,329 3,402 2,545 3,397 3,171 3,662 4,053 3,593
Japan 3,919 3,657 3,567 3,664 3,777 3,118 3,003 3,233
West Germany 1,591 1,451 1,307 1,335 1,419 1,260 1,248 1,209 1,178 1,150
France 1,804 1,596 1,429 1,395 1,578 1,252 1,421 1,527
United Kingdom 736 565 456 482 534 518 444
Italy 1,816 1,710 1,532 1,507 1,453 1,328 1,166
Canada 521 334 247 244 188 216 162
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
30.87
34.50
33.63
29.31
28.70
Algeria
37.59
39.58
35.79
31.30
30.50
44? API 0.10% sulfur
Ecuador
34.42
34.50
32.96
27.59
27.50
28? API 0.93% sulfur
Gabon
29? API 1.26 % sulfur
Indonesia
35? API 0.09% sulfur
Iran
Light
34? API 1.35% sulfur
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.61
Heavy
31 ? API 1.60% sulfur
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.44
Iraq
35? API 1.95% sulfur
Kuwait
31 ? API 2.50% sulfur
Libya
40? API 0.22% sulfur
Nigeria
34? API 0.16% sulfur
40? API 1.17% sulfur
Saudi Arabia
Berri
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.96
39? API 1.16% sulfur
Light
34? API 1.70% sulfur
Medium
31 ? API 2.40% sulfur
Heavy
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.46
27? API 2.85% sulfur
UAE
31.57
36.42
34.74
30.38
39? API 0.75% sulfur
Venezuela
26? API 1.52% sulfur
, F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
n Weighted by the volume of production.
Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Year
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
28.14
28.25
28.11
28.13
28.15
29.66
30.15
29.50
29.50
29.50
26.41
26.82
26.50
26.15
26.15
28.00
27.10
28.13
27.37
28.38
27.41
28.05
27.35
28.05
27.35
28.05
27.35
29.52
28.20
28.48
28.11
28.11
28.11
26.00
26.25
26.50
26.50
26.00
26.00
29.56
28.24
28.52
28.15
28.15
28.15
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100130001-8
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Sales Price
I Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100130001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100130001-8