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CIA-RDP97-00770R000100070001-5
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Document Release Date:
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Sequence Number:
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Publication Date:
January 31, 1986
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Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 86-003
31 January 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
This publication is prepared for the use of US Government
officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to
meet their specific requirements. US Government officials may
obtain additional copies of this document directly or through
liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency.
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or: National Technical Information Service
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Comments and queries on this paper may be directed to the DOCEX
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Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100070001-5
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Energy
Consumer Prices 1
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price 10
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
1981
1982
1983
United States
2.6
7.2
5.9
Japan
1.0
0.4
3.5
West Germany
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
France
-2.6
-1.5
1.1
United Kingdom
-3.9
2.1
3.9
Italy
-1.6
--3.1
-3.2
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
_--_----------------
1984 1985
11.6
11.1
2.4
2.3
1.2
3.1
8.8
I st Qtr
2.1
2d Qtr
1.3
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
2.1
-6.5
4.9
9.0
-0.4
12.5
-11.1
7.1
0.7
11.0
7.3
9.4
30.4
0
6
0
.
5.2
1
-2.6
-32-.9
.
-
31.8
11.4
8.4
-2.6 -1-1.2
-2.5 12.5
3.0 4.1
---- -------
II.1 7.5
7.4
0.7 4.5
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
--
U
t
d
S
1st Qtr- ---2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr
--- ---
-- -- -- - -
ni
e
tates-
-
2.5
2.1
3.4
6.6
3.7 1. 1 1
3.0 2.4
2.6
west Germany
-0.2
--1.0
1.6
2.7
-4.6 9.2
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.6
-0.9 3.6 1.2
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.3
2.4
3.0 4.9
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.4
2.6
3.7 3.3 0.8
Canada
3.3
-4.4
3.3
5.0
Constant market prices.
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Nov Dec
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.3
4.2 2.4 4.1 6.9 5. 3
3
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.8-
2.3
2.4
1.3 2.1 2.5 0.7 7.6
West Germany
6.0
5.3
-
3.3
2.4
3.5
2.5 0.1 LO 2.2 1.4
France
13.3
12.0
9 5
7 7
5.7
6.0 4.4 3.1 4.2 4.5
United Kin dom
g
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
7.1
9.0 3.1 3.0 4.5 5.9
9
toy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
10.0
10.2 7.3 6.7 6
6 13
7
Canada
.
.
------------
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
5.1
4.0 3.2 4.4 3.6 9.6
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Money Supply, M-1
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States b
7.1
6.6
11.2
6.9
Japan
3.7
7.1
3.0
2.9
West Germany
1.1
3.6
10.3
3.3
France
12.2
13.9
10.0
7.7
NA
NA
13.0
14.7
11.2
11.6
15.2
12.3
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.2
3.3
11 Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate a
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
France
United Kingdom
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
Canada
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
10.9
10.6
16.0
-1.6
14.2
14.0
10.2
-0.2
2.8
-15.1
7.2
1.4
-0.4
8.1
15.3
-11.2
43.8
12.3
7.3
9.8
1.2
32.4
15.4
32.5
34.1
21.2
18.0
-0.3
11.5
2.7
lst Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.8
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.9
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.1
10.8
10.2
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Foreign Trade
1 st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Nov
United States b
Exports
Imports
Balance
233.5 212.3
261.0 244.0
-27.5 -31.6
200.7
258.2
-57.5
217.6
325.6
-108.0
55.7
84.4
-28.7
52.6
86.4
-33.8
52.6
84.5
-31.9
18.0
30.3
-12.3
Exports
Imports
Balance
149.6 138.2
129.5 119.6
20.1 18.6
145.5
114.0
_31.4__
168.1
124.1
44.0
40.5
28.9
11.6
42.6
29.5
13.1
43.6
29.4
14.2
15.9
9.8
6
1
West Germany
Exports
Imports
Balance-
175.4 176.4
163.4 155.3
11.9 21.1
169.5
152.9
16.6
171.8
153.1
18.8
41.0
36.5
4.6
43.6
37.2
6.5
48.7
41.7
7.0
.
16.5
14.2
2
3
France
Exports
Imports
Balance
106.3 96.4
115.6 110.5
-9.3 -14.0
95.1
101.0
-5.9
97.5
100.3
-2.8
22.5
23.6
-1.1
24.4
24.7
-0.4
26.1
26.8
-0.7
.
9.5
9.6
0
1
9.6
10.0
-0
4
United Kingdom
Exports
Imports
Balance
102.5 97.1
94.6 93.1
7.9 4.0
92.1
93.7
-1.6
93.7
99.1
-5.3
22.7
24.1
-1.4
25.4
25.7
-0.3
25.5
26.2
-0
7
.
9.1
9.3
-0
2
.
9.3
9.1
0
2
Italy
Exports
Imports
Balance
75.4 73.9
91.2 86.7
-15.9 -12.8
72.7
80.6
-7.9
73.5
84.4
-10.9
17.7
21.6
3.9
18.2
21.8
-3
6
.
20.3
21.2
-1
0
.
6.6
8.2
1
6
.
Canada
_
.
.
-
.
Exports
Imports
Balance
70.5 68.5
64.4 54.1
6.1 14.4
73.7
59.3
14.4
86.5
70.6
15.9
22.0
18.0
4.0
21.9
18.7
3.2
21.9
19.6
2.2
7.3
6.9
0.4
A Seasonally adjusted
.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
Current Account Balance
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
D
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.0
-107.4
-24.2
-27.7
-30.5
ec
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.
6.8
13.3
13.1
4.8
4.5
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.2
6.0
1.7
3.1
2.1
2.4
1
9
France
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
0.9
-0.7
0.6
0
.
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.5
1.6
-0.5
1.8
1.6
0.6
0.4
1
0
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-3.2
-2.9
.
Canada
-5.0
2.1
1.4
1.9
0.5
0
-1.1
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
lst Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct Nov Dec
1.0
1.4
0.3
1.9
-2.5
--6.4 -0.6
11.9
14.1
5.9
123.0 28.0
Japan 5.5
-3.2
-7.1
-19.0
26.7
37.8
125.3 23.6
France -12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
-14.0
29.2
35.1
United Kingdom NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
-16.2
57.1
29 2
4.4
47.5 16_6
Italy -7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-13.4
21.6
19.2
Canada 3.9
2.0
-1.3
-3.7
0.2
-7.0
8.1
14.5 3.8
Import Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct Nov Dec
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
- 9.6
--0.6
0
-0.3
Japan ---
---
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-10.9
3.1
2.6
38.5
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-14.4
19.6
__20.8-
78.8
France
-7.8
3.8
12.0
15.7
17.5
United Kingdom
44.7
-1.1
-3.3
-0.1
-4.3
-2.4
9.0
6.1
4.8
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Exchange Rate Trends
Trade-Weighted
United States
West Germany -2.1 7.0 5.8 1.0
0.9 7.8 11.1
-France- -5.1 - 6_I-- 4.7 -2.I 0.9
United Kingdom 2.5 2.1 5.0 2.5 10.5
Italy
0.3 0.2 2.3 -2.3 -2.1 -10.2 -4.0
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
West Germany -24.6 -7.2 -5.2 -11.5 -28.0 19.0 27.8 20.6 34.1
United Kingdom
Italy -32.8
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
13 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3-months)---
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
16.24 12.49 9.23 10.56 8.76 8.04 7.90 7.93 7.88
-ia.a -12.3 -15.6 -30.3
-2.9 0.1 -5.1 -10.5
7.79 7.23 NA 6.66 6.55 6.54 6.50-
12.19 8.82 5.78 5.96 6.12 5.80 4.86 4.81 4.80
12.51 11.74 10.64 10.32 9.81 9.10 8.98
13.85 12.24 10.12 9.91 12.98 12.61 11.67 11.60 11.71
20.13 20.15 18.16 15.91 15.78 15.12 14.37 14.52 14.71
18.46 14.48 9.53 11.30 10.59 9.87 9.32 9.10 9.40
16.87 13.25 9.69 10.86 9.04 8.29 8.14 8.15 8.11
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
10.5 10.6 5.8 9.1 26.0 -11.3 -14.9
-13.2 -13.4 -13.3 -11.9 -28.6 59.9 44.5 17.6 3.5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Japan 2.7 12.9 4.6 0 --19.6 9.9 18.6 45.6
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported,
217.0 232.0 243.0
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef (c per pound)
Australia 112.1 108.4 110.7 101.1
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States 100.0 101.4 97.6 100.9
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
74.3 92.1 106.2
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, S per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
417, c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(1009, grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
---- - --- --- Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
1.32 1.44
148 150
72.69 74.48 85.71 63.91
502 730
Year
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Dec
NA
110.4
111.6
110.9
NA
NA
96.6
100.2
93.3
93.6
99.3
101.3
90.7
96.6
81.0
80.4
96.1
99.1
98.7
99.2
96.4
98.4
100.8
102.0
1.43
1.44
1.42
1.33
1.52
1.75
125
133
133
118
117
123
57.87
62.27
63.78
56.76
501
610
606
417
369
507 447 527 727 571 654 658 518 454 470
252 219 238 197 157 157
8.42 8.49 5.18 4.04 3.69
Sugar 16.93
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices C per pound)
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(c per pound)
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
210 187 183 182 169 178
Food Index a (1980=100) 88 78 86 92 81 83
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Aluminum (0 per pound)
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
77.7
81.0
LME cash
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, 0 per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.2
62.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
300.0
Lead a (0 per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
17.3
17.3
18.3
17.8
17.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.8
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
269.3
275.4
294.0
325.5
340.3
NA
46.6
45.7
42.4
NA
NA
Natural
40.3
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
42.0
41.5
42.4
41.8
42.2
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
5.9
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
571.0
NA
NA
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Lumber Index '
(1980=100)
95
84
114
105
Industrial Materials Index t
85
71
82
76
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
J Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of I I types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
' The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
I! ~ ..I I I
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985-
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
World
59,793
56,217
53,514
53,098
54,187
53,462
52,380
52,343
54,682
Non-Communist countries
45,243
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,672
37,610
37,588
39,800
Developed countries
12,859
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,704
14,617
14,643
14,845
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,871
8,972
8,954
8,961
8,901
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,463
1,445
1,444
1,450
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,660
2,471
2,399
2,560
Other
691
717
736
915
921
991
1,001
1,023
1,012
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,443
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,733
7,802
7,922
7,911
Mexico
1,936
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,711
2,724
2,738
2,749
2,679
Egypt
595
598
665
689
827
877
875
890
847
Other
2,912
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,145
4,203
4,294
4,315
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,235
15,191
15,023
17,044
17,580
Algeria
1,020
803
701
699
638
660
634
616
650
680
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,152
1,167
1,203
1,110
1,200
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,097
2,299
2,335
2,300
2,200
Qatar
471
405
328
295
399
292
297
312
300
300
Saudi Arabia b
9,631
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,659
2,731
2,564
3,700
4,000
Communist countries
14,550
14,615
14,704
14,870
14,930
14,790
14,770
14,755
14,882
USSR
12,030
12,180
12,250
12,330
12,230
11,920
11,870
11,866
11,962
China
2,113
2,024
2,044
2,120
2,280
2,450
2,480
2,474
2,500
2,500
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States -
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
Canada
1,617
1,454
1,354
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
1st Qtr
15,807
4,710
1,993
1,881
1 , 7 1 5
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
15,452
15,562
14,859
15,865
16
100
3,577
3,830
3,860
,
2,034
2,242
2,230
1,208
1,230
1,300
1,276
1,416
1, 5 54
1
644
,
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
Dec
United States 4,406
3,488
3,329
3,4 22
2,545
3,397
3,171
_
3,340
-
3
487
3
593
Japan 3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,777
3,118
3,001
3,529
,
3
233
,
West Germany 1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,419
1,265
1,233
1,303
,
France 1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,578
1,212
1,421
1,553
United Kingdom 736
565
456
482
534
518
453
Italy 1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,453
1,328
Canada 521
334
247
244
188
216
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price a
OPEC average h
30.87
34.50
33.63
29.31
28.70
Algeria
37.59
39.58
35.79
31.30
30.50
44? API 0.10% sulfur
Ecuador
34.42
34.50
32.96
27.59
27.50
28? API 0.93% sulfur
Gabon
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.82
29.00
29? API 1.26 % sulfur
Indonesia
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.95
29.53
35? API 0.09% sulfur
Iran Light
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.61
28.00
34? API 1.35% sulfur
Heavy
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.44
27.10
Iraq c
30.30
36.66
34.86
30.32
29.43
35? API 1.95% sulfur
Kuwait
311 API 2.50% sulfur
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.68
27.30
Libya
36.07
40.08
35.69
30.91
30.40
40? API 0.22% sulfur
Nigeria
35.50
38.48
35.64
30.22
29.12
34? API 0.16% sulfur
Qatar
37.12
34.56
29.95
29.49
28.48
Saudi Arabia
Berri
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.96
29.52
39? API 1.16% sulfur
Light
28.67
32.50
34.00
29.46
29.00
34? API 1.70% sulfur
Medium
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.86
27.40
31 ? API 2.40% sulfur
Heavy
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.46
26.00
27? API 2.85% sulfur
UAE
31.57
36.42
34.74
30.38
29.56
Venezuela
28.44
32.88
32.88
28.69
27.88
26? API 1.52% sulfur
Year
I st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
28.14 _
28.25
28.11
28.13__
28_15
29.66
30.15
29.50
29.50
29.50
- -
-
-
26.41
26.82
26.50
26.15
26.15
28.09
28.35
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.62
28.88
28.53
28.53
28.53
28.13
28.38
28.05
28.05
28.05
27.37
27.41
27.35
27.35
27.35
28.27
28.78
28.43
28.43
28.43
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
--
---
-
28.34
28.24
28.37
28.37
28.37
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
---- ---- ---------
28.20
28.48
28.11
28.11 28.11
28.08
28.32
28.00
28.00 28.00
27.32
27.48
27.40
27.20 27.20
26.25
26.50
26.50
26.00 26.00
---
28.24
28.52
28.15
28.15
28.15
27.37
27.69
27.60
27.10
27.10
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
h Weighted by the volume of production.
Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Sales Price
11.29 1102 11.77 12.88 12.93
3.39 i . Ll a_
1973 74 75 76 77 78 79
Annual average
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Ii . l L_..I . .
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100070001-5