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CIA-RDP97-00770R000100040001-8
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Publication Date:
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Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
17 January 1986
DI EEI 86-002
17 January 1986
,i1 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Il V
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
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Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100040001-8
Economic & Energy
Indicators
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price 10
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
Energy
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100040001-8
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
United States
2.6
-7.2
5.9
11.6
2.1
1.3
1.9
-1.9
-3.8
4,9
Japan
1.0
0.4
3.5
11.1
-2.6
11.2
-0.4
-12.9
12.5
-11.1
West Germany
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
2.4
-2.5
12.5
0.7
20.8
11.0
France
-2.6
-1.5
1.1
2.3
-3.0
4.1
7.3
-16.4
9.4
United Kingdom
-3.9
2.1
3.9
1.2
10.0
8.6
-1.6
22.1
-3.3
-3.1
-3.2
3.1
7.4
1.1
-2.5
29.8
-37.0
-10.0
5.3
8.8
0.7
4.5
11.4
1.6
8.4
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
United States
2.5
-2.1
3.4
6.6
3.7
3.1 _
3.2
5.0
1.7
5.8
2.6
9.2
--
2.3
0.8
6.7
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
Japan _
4.9
2.6
1.8
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
3.3
4.2
2.4
2.5
-0.7
7.6
1.1
2.3
1.5
3.1
4.2
4.5
7.1
9.1
3.0
4.3
10.1
10.2
7.3
6.7
6.6
13.7
5.4
3.8
3.4
3.9
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Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States b
7.1
6.6
11.2
6.9
3.7
7.1
3.0
2.9
1.1
3.6
10.3
3.3
United Kingdom
NA
NA
13.0
14.7
Italy
11.2
11.6
15.2
12.0
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.2
3.3
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including M1-A and MI-B.
Unemployment Rate a
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
10.9
10.6
16.0
12.6
-1.6
14.2
10.0
-0.2
2.5
5.2
-15.4
-14.0
1.4
-0.4
8.1
32.5
15.3
-11.2
1.2
32.4
15.4
0.9
32.8
34.1
18.0
-0.1
11.5
21.8
3.2
4.2
12.9
21.3
21.4
15.5
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.8
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.9
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.2
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.1
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.6
10.1
9.9
10.3
10.5
10.5
10.5
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
12.4
12.6
12.9
13.1
13.2
13.2
13.1
13.2
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
10.8
10.2
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.8
11.3
11.1
10.6
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.0
a Unemployment rates for France are estimated.
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United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
55.7
52.6
52.6
17.4
18.0
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.2
325.6
84.4
86.4
84.5
27.6
30.3
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.5
-108.0
-28.7
-33.8
-31.9
-10.2
-12.3
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.5
168.1
40.5
42.6
43.6
15.6
15.9
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
28.9
29.5
29.4
10.5
9.8
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
11.6
13.1
14.2
5.1
6.1
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.8
41.0
43.6
48.6
16.7
16.4
Imports c
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
36.5
37.1
41.7
14.5
14.1
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
4.6
6.5
6.9
2.3
2.3
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
22.5
24.4
26.1
9.7
9.5
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
23.6
24.7
26.8
9.6
9.6
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-1.1
-0.4
-0.7
0.1
-0.1
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.1
93.7
22.7
25.4
25.5
9.0
9.1
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.7
99.1
24.1
25.7
26.2
9.0
9.3
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.3
-1.4
-0.3
-0.7
0
-0.2
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.7
73.5
17.7
18.3
20.4
7.3
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.3
21.6
21.9
21.2
7.9
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.8
-3.8
-3.6
-0.8
-0.6
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
22.0
21.8
21.7
8.0
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
17.9
18.5
19.4
6.3
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
4.1
3.4
2.3
1.6
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
c Imports are c.i.f.
United States 6.3 -8.1 -46.0 -107.4 -24.2 -27.7 -30.5
Canada -5.0 2.1 1.4 1.9 0.5 0 -1.1
a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
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Export Prices in US $
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
Japan
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
3.9
-2.0
-1.3
-3.7
Import Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1.9
-2.5
-2.5 -6.4 -0.6
26.7
37.8
-18.4 125.3 23.6
29.2
35.1
__20.6
57.1
29.2
__17.0 47.5------16.6
21.6
19.2
-9.9
-7.0
6.9
-35.9 16.4
0.3
-19.0
-14.0
-16.2
-13.4
-0.2
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr Sep
Oct Nov
United States
-0.3 12.3
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-10.9
3.1--
2.6 --1.4
38.5
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-14.4 _
19.6
__-20.8
78.8 17.7
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-12.0
15.7
17.5 ---17.5--
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.6
-15.4
46.1
16.4 -15.6
44.7 0.3
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-9.1
23.0
5.5 -28.9
Canada
8.7
-1.1
-3.3
-0.1
-4.5
-2.2
8.6 -29.9
5.7
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Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
10.5
10.6 5.8
9.1
26.0
-11.3
-14.9
Japan
9.3
-5.7 10.4
6.2
0.9
7.8
11.1
West Germany
-2.1
7.0 5.8
1.0
-0.2
2.1
8.5
France
-5.1
-6.1 -4.7
-2.1
0.9
4.8
9.9
United Kingdom
2.5
2.1 -5.0
-2.5
-10.5
39.9
16.7
-9.2
-5.1 -1.6
-3.1
-1.3
-10.5
-9.7
-2.1
-10.2
-4.0
2.7
-12.9 _ 4.6
0
-19.6
9.9
18.6
45.6
7.2
-24.6
-7.2-- -5.2
-11.5
-28.0
19.0
27.8
20.6
34.1
-28.7
-20.8 -15.9
-14.7
-26.7
19.6
28.0
21.1
29.5
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4 __13.3
-11.9
-28.6
59.9
44.5
17.6
-32.8
-18.8 -12.3
-15.6
-30.3
9.5
15.6
19.0
2
6.2
-2.5
-2.9 0.1
-5.1
-10.5
-5.0
2.7
-8.7
-
-
---
-17.9
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
8.76
8.04
7.90
7.99
7.90
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
6.54
6.50
6.48
6.48
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
15.47
14.68 12.51
11.74
10.64
10.32
9.81
9.34
9.25
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15 18.16
15.91
15.78
15.12
14.37
14.37
14.83
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
1 Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
1 1. U ~, . ~ . ~.... ~ . ._... .-........ .. . .
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Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef (Q per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
217 232 243
108.4 110.7 101.1
midwest markets)
Cocoa (0 per pound) 89.8 74.3 92.1 106.2
- - -
Coffee ($ per pound) 1.28 1.40 1.32
Corn 150 123 148
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
481 514 514
Cotton 72.69 74.48 85.71 63.91
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
Palm Oil 571 445 502 730
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled, 632
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
1.44
150
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr Nov Dec
110.4
111.6
110.9
NA
106.2 NA
100.2
93.3
93.6
99.2
100 101.3
-
-- - -
99.2
96.4
-
98.4
-
100.8
-
---- 97.9- 102
--------
1.44
1.42
1.33
1_57
175
133
133
118
117
118
123
62.27
-
605
606
417
369
362
390
496
496
481
465
470
450
254
243
236
263
245
290
240
159
2.96
4.21
5.30
5.53
5.37
126.9
82.8
72.3
78.1
80.2
75.5
177
169
154
175
177
180
79.1
76.5
83.9
83.4
90.2
362 339 310
Soybeans 288 244 282 283
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal 252 219 238 1
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices Q per pound) ----
Tea 91.0 89.9 105.2
Average Auction (London)
(0 per pound)
Wheat 210 187 183
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
156.6
182
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
97
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Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, 0 per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
62.1
67.6
64.5
62.7
62.0
63.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
300.0
319.8
323.2
326
326
325
Lead a (0 per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.2
17.3
18.3
17.8
17.9
17.8
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
69.6
68.4
68.4
67.2
_
67.2
67.2
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.9
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475
475
475
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
269.3
275.4
294.0
325.7
314.3
340.3
47.5
45.7
44.0
44.4
46.6
45.7
42.4
NA
40.2
NA
Natural c
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
41.5
42.4
41.8
42.2
40.3
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
5.9
6.3
6.1
6.1
83.7
71.9
72.7
Tina (0 per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
501.1
541.3
571.0
NA
NA
NA
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
11,515
10,974
10,648
9,488
9,659
8,866
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
543.5
567.3
590.2
611.61
617.83
617.83
617.84
NA
617.84
NA
Zinc a (0 per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
40.0
39.5
33.4
28.7
26.3
30.4
Lumber Index a
95
84
114
105
100
107
103
NA
NA
NA
(1980=100)
Industrial Materials Index r
84.7
71.2
82.2
75.9
(1980= 100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
a Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
59,793
56,217
53,514
53,098
54,187
53,462
52,380
52,343
53,182
54,578
Non-Communist countries
45,243
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,672
37,610
37,588
38,373
39,727
Developed countries
12,859
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,704
14,617
14,643
14,905
14,845
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,871
8,972
8,954
8,978
8,961
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,463
1,445
1,444
1,450
1,450
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,660
2,471
2,399
2,600
2,560
Norway
528
501
518
614
700
719
728
823
840
862
Other
691
717
736
915
921
991
1,001
1,023
1,037
1,012
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,443
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,733
7,802
7,922
8,023
7,962
Mexico
1,936
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,711
2,724
2,738
2,800
2,800
Egypt
595
598
665
689
827
877
875
890
875
847
Other
2,912
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,145
4,203
4,294
4,348
4,315
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,235
15,191
15,023
15,445
16,920
Algeria
1,020
803
701
699
638
660
634
616
650
650
Ecuador
204
211
211
236
253
274
271
282
280
280
Gabon
175
151
154
157
152
150
150
153
160
160
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,152
1,167
1,203
1,070
1,05,0--.
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,097
2,299
2,335
2,200
2,400
Iraq
2,514
993
972
922
1,203
1,255
1,340
1,482
1,600
1,700
Kuwaitb
1,389
947
663
881
912
914
800
800
800
_900
Libya
1,830
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,051
1,057
933
1,000
1,100
Neutral Zones
544
370
317
390
410
480
333
306
360
300
Nigeria
2,058
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,590
1,351
1,214
1,450
1,700
Qatar
471
405
328
295
399
292
297
312
295
300
Saudi Arabia b
9,631
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,659
2,731
2,564
2,800
3,600
UAE
1,702
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,123
1,120
1,193
1,225
1,225
Venezuela
2,165
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,538
1,641
1,630
1,555
1,555
Communist countries
14,550
14,615
14,704
14,870
14,930
14,790
14,770
14,755
14,809
14,851
USSR
12,030
12,180
12,250
12,330
12,230
11,920
11,870
11,866
11,920
11,962
China
2,113
2,024
2,044
2,120
2,280
2,450
2,480
2,474
2,474
2,474
Other
407
411
410
420
420
420
420
415
415
415
? Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
c Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
Canada
1,617
1,454
1,354
1,348
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
15,807
15,452
15,562
15,115
14,859
15,865
4,710
3,577
3,830
3,768
3,860
1,993
2,034
2,242
2,013
2,230
1,757
1,342
1,310
1,449
1,564
1,571
1,881
1,208
1,226
1,286
1,715
1,276
1,416
1,550
1,554
1,644
1,327
1,292
1,367
1,339
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States 4,406 3,488 3,329 3,402
Japan 3,919 3,657 3,567 3,664
West Germany 1,591 1,451 1,307 1,335
France 1,804 1,596 1,429 1,395
United Kingdom 736 565 456 482
Italy_ --- 1,816 1,710 1,532 1,507
Canada 521 334 247 244
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct Nov
2,545
3,397
3,171
3,213
3,340 3,487
3,777
3,118
3,001
3,169
3,529------
1,41
11,265
1,233
1,259
1,303
1,578
1,212
1,421
1,442
1,553
534
518
1,453
1,328
--
-
188
216
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price a
OPEC average b
30.87
34.50
33.63
29.31
28.70
Algeria
10% sulfur
441 API 0
37.59
39.58
35.79
31.30
30.50
.
Ecuador
281 API 0 93% sulfur
34.42
34.50
32.96
27.59
27.50
Gabon
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.82
29.00
Indonesia
09% sulfur
351 API 0
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.95
29.53
.
Light
34? API 1.35% sulfur
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.61
28.00
Heavy
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.44
27.10
30.32
29.43
Kuwait
50% sulfur
31 ? API 2
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.68
27.30
.
30.40
Nigeria
34? API 0.16% sulfur
35.50
38.48
35.64
30.22
29.12
Qatar
401 API 1.17% sulfur
28.48
Berri
16% sulfur
39? API 1
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.96
29.52
.
Light
70% sulfur
34? API 1
28.67
32.50
34.00
29.46
29.00
.
Medium
40% sulfur
31 ? API 2
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.86
27.40
.
UAE
31.57
36.42
34.74
30.38
29.56
Venezuela
26? API 1.52% sulfur
28.44
32.88
32.88
28.69
27.88
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
28.25
28.11
28.13
28.15
28.15
28.15
30.15
29.50
29.50
29.50
29.50
29.50
26.82
26.50
26.15
26.15
28.35
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.88
28.53
28.53
28.53
28.53
28.53
28.38
28.05
28.05
28.05
28.05
28.05
27.41
27.35
27.35
27.35
27.35
27.35
28.78
28.43
28.43
28.43
28.43
28.43
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
28.24
28.37
28.37
28.37
28.37
28.37
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.48
28.11
28.11
28.11
28.11
28 .I 1
28.32
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
27.48
27.40
27.20
27.20
27.20
27.20
26.50
26.50
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
28.52
28.15
28.15
28.15
28.15
28.1 5
27.69
27.60
27.10
27.10
27.10
27.10
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
h Weighted by the volume of production.
Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100040001-8
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Sales Price
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100040001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8
Approved For Release 2011/06/14: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100040001-8