INCREASING THE PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480016-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2013
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: July 23, 1986
• Content Type: CABLE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96RO1136R001302480016-5
MSGNO 44 (STXX) *07/23/86* *03:06:21.9.9*
ZCZC 08:04:45Z (ST)
EMI DTG : 86072302061417
NC 1598239
TOR: 230605Z JUL 86 MOSCOW 12538
RR RUEAIIB
ZNY CCCCC ZOC STATE ZZH
STU3460
RR RUEHC RUEHXD
DE RUEHMO #2538/01 2031612
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 221609Z JUL 86 So 10tX.~S*~
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7853
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCJACC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL//POLAD
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2393
RUSBKB/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1644
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3385
BT
Z1 C 0 L MOSCOW 12538
EZ2:
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, UR, US, AF, PK
SUBJECT: INCREASING THE PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN
REF: MOSCOW 6991
1. C - ENTIRE TEXT
SUMMARY
2. JUDGING FROM AN ARTICLE PUBLISHED IN PRAVDA
JULY 22, THE SOVIETS HAVE DECIDED TO TOUGHEN THEIR
PUBLIC LINE ON PAKISTAN. THE ARTICLE, WRITTEN
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96RO1136R001302480016-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480016-5
BY A. FILIPPOV, IMPLIES THAT MOSCOW SEES NO
POSSIBILITY OF A SETTLEMENT ON AFGHANISTAN, AS
LONG AS THE ZIA GOVERNMENT REMAINS IN POWER,
SINCE "CLASS INTERESTS" DICTATE THE "UNDECLARED WAR"
AGAINST AFGHANISTAN. IN ADDITION, FILIPPOV CHARGES
U.S. COLLUSION IN THE GOP NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND
PORTRAYS THE GOP'S "UNDECLARED WAR" AGAINST
AFGHANISTAN AS PART OF A GENERAL CAMPAIGN OF
SUBVERSION AGAINST INDIA. THE ARTICLE SIGNALS
GREATER SOVIET ENCOURAGEMENT OF OPPOSITION FORCES
IN PAKISTAN AS WELL AS A REJECTION OF CONCESSIONS
ON A TIMETABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL IN THE UPCOMING ROUND
OF AFGHANISTAN TALKS IN GENEVA. END SUMMARY
NATURE OF THE REGIME
---------------------
3. FILIPPOV IMPLIES THAT MOSCOW SEES NO POSSIBILITY
OF A SETTLEMENT AS LONG AS THE PRESENT REGIME IS
IN POWER. HE ARGUES THAT PAKISTAN'S "UNDECLARED
WAR" AGAINST AFGHANISTAN RESULTS FROM THE "CLASS
INTERESTS" OF THE REGIME. THE GOP IS USING
AFGHANISTAN IN ORDER TO EXPAND ITS POLITICO-MILITARY
COOPERATION WITH THE U.S., OTHER NATO COUNTRIES,
AND WITH THE CONSERVATIVE ARAB STATES AND TO
OBTAIN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. IN
THIS RESPECT, FILIPPOV NOTES THAT PAKISTAN IS
RECEIVING THE MOST MODERN U.S. (AND WESTERN)
MILITARY EQUIPMENT. ACCORDING TO FILIPPOV, A
"SUFFICIENTLY" INFLUENTIAL LAYER OF MILITARY
BUREAUCRATS HAS FORMED IN PAKISTAN, WHICH IS
"ENRICHING" ITSELF ON THE BASIS OF FOREIGN
MILITARY AID AND THE "TWO BILLION" DOLLARS IN AID
WHICH HAS FLOWED TO THE MUJAHIDEEN IN THE LAST
FEW YEARS.
4. FILIPPOV ASSERTS THAT THIS EXPLAINS ISLAMABAD'S
DELAYS IN NEGOTIATING A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT IN
AFGHANISTAN, AND ITS ATTEMPT TO FOCUS THE
NEGOTIATIONS ON WITHDRAWAL OF SOVIET TROOPS
ONLY AND NOT ON THE CHIEF QUESTION, ARMED INTERVENTION.
SUBVERSION
5. FILIPPOV CHARGES THAT THE CIA HAS HELPED
PAKISTAN ESTABLISH SPECIAL FORCES TO SUPPRESS
DOMESTIC DISSENT AND SECURITY ORGANS WHICH
ENABLE PAKISTAN "MORE ACTIVELY" TO INTERFERE
IN THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF NEIGHBORS. HE QUOTES
A "TIMES OF INDIA" REPORT ACCORDING TO WHICH
PAKISTAN IS TRAINING SIKH EXTREMISTS IN CAMPS
IN ABBOTABAD, NARUVALE, SAKHIVAL, FAISALABAD,
MIANCHAN, AND HASAN-ABAD (SOME NAMES TRANSLITERATIONS).
MORE THAN TWO THOUSAND, ALLEGEDLY, HAVE BEEN
TRAINED. FILIPPOV ASSERTS THAT THE CIA
HAS ALSO HELPED EXPAND A NETWORK OF
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480016-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96RO1136R001302480016-5
SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE STATIONS.
NUCLEAR
6. QUOTING SEVERAL WESTERN SOURCES (THE FAR
EAST ECONOMIC REVIEW AND NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
ESTIMATE 31-81), FILIPPOV ASSERTS THAT PAKISTAN
IS NEARING ACHIEVEMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
CAPABILITY. MOREOVER, HE CLAIMS, PAKISTAN IS
STRIVING TO BRING ITS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM TO
A SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION AND IS IN THE PROCESS
OF DEVELOPING DELIVERY VEHICLES, E.G. MISSILES
AS WELL AS F-16S.
7. ACCORDING TO FILIPPOV, THE U.S. IS CLOSING
ITS EYES TO PAKISTAN'S ACTIVITIES. INDEED,
0 N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 MOSCOW 12538
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, UR, US, AF, PK
SUBJECT: INCREASING THE PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN
HE CHARGES, THE RECENT DISCUSSIONS IN WASHINGTON
WITH PRIME MINISTER JUNEJO SHOW THAT THE U.S.
IS ENCOURAGING PAKISTAN, RATHER THAN ADOPTING
SANCTIONS AGAINST IT, BY CONCLUDING A
4.02 BILLION DOLLAR ASSISTANCE PACKAGE.
INTERNAL OPPOSITION
-------------------
8. FILIPPOV PORTRAYS THE ZIA GOVERNMENT'S
POLITICAL BASE AS SHAKY. HE CLAIMS, FOR EXAMPLE,
THAT IN THE COURSE OF ONE WEEK IN PAKISTAN, SOME
20 MILLION PAKISTANIS IN 45 CITIES PARTICIPATED
IN DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT'S
REPRESSIVE POLICIES, ITS MILITARY COOPERATION
WITH THE U.S., AND ITS PARTICIPATION IN THE
"UNDECLARED WAR" AGAINST AFGHANISTAN.
COMMENT
9. MOSCOW HAS A NUMBER OF REASONS FOR TOUGHENING
ITS LINE ON PAKISTAN. THE SOVIETS NO DOUBT FEEL
FRUSTRATED WITH THE FAILURE OF THEIR CAMPAIGN
OF "REASONABLENESS" (ALLEGED BROADENING
OF THE DRA'S SOCIAL BASE, CLAIMS ABOUT AN
INTEREST IN A QUICK POLITICAL SETTLEMENT,
ETC.) TO ELICIT GOP ACQUIESCENCE IN THE
SOVIET VERSION OF AN AFGHANISTAN SETTLEMENT.
MOSCOW PRESUMABLY IS ALSO RESPONDING TO A SERIES
OF EVENTS WHICH INDICATE A CLOSE U.S.-PAKISTAN
RELATIONSHIP AND GOP DISINTEREST IN THE SOVIET
AFGHANISTAN OFFER, INCLUDING THE 4.02 BILLION
DOLLAR AID PACKAGE, THE JUNEJO VISIT TO WASHINGTON,
AND THE VISIT TO WASHINGTON OF THE MUJAHIDEEN
DELEGATION. MOREOVER, MOSCOW NOW PRESUMABLY
BELIEVES IT HAS MORE TO GAIN BY EXACERBATING
TENSIONS WITH ISLAMABAD THAN WOOING ZIA AND
C O N F I D E N T I A L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96RO1136R001302480016-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480016-5
OTHER MEMBERS OF HIS GOVERNMENT. JUDGING FROM
PAST EXPERIENCE, THE SOVIETS MAY NOW BEGIN MORE
ACTIVELY TO ENCOURAGE OPPOSITION FORCES IN
PAKISTAN.
10. KABUL - MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. HARTMAN
END OF MESSAGE CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
NNDD
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480016-5