TERRORIST BOMBING CAMPAIGN SUCCEEDINGWC REFUGEE-LTCAL RELATIONS ON A SLIDE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 21, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 24, 1986
• Content Type: CABLE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480003-9
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MSGNO 7 (STXX) *06/24/86* *11:14:53.6.6*
ZCZC 16:13:25Z (ST)
EMI DTG : 86062410394444
86 1298958
SCR
NC 1298958
TOR: 241437Z JUN 86 PESHAW 00929
RR RUEAIIB
ZNY CCCCC ZOC STATE ZZH
STU5210
RR RUEHC RUEHUU
DE RUEHCR #0929/01 1741000
F_ZNY-CCCCC_ZZH
L_FL230925Z_JUN8&L,
WAMC LONSU PESHAWAR/ 0.1)(7c0V\-----
TO-RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3125
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7557
INFO RUEHUU/AFGHAN WAR COLLECTIVE
RUEHLR/AMCR
SUL LAHORE 2867
BT
EZ1:
?C?(5-17-17-1-IrrirT-1--A--E- PESHAWAR 0929
EZ2:
TERREP
SECSTATE FOR NEA, AIKDXANE, DS, RP, M/CTP
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER, PREF, PGOV, PK, AF
(SUBJRMT: TERRORIST BOMBING CAMPAIGN SUCCEEDINGWC-REFUGEE=-----
-L-LTCAL_RELATIONSANA_SLIDE j
1. C - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY: THE TERRORIST BOMBING CAMPAIGN PRESENTLY UNDER
WAY IN PAKISTAN'S NORTH-WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE IS HAVING ITS
INTENDED EFFECT: TO POISON THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE LOCAL
POPULATION AND THE AFGHAN REFUGEES. PUBLIC SENTIMENT NOW FAVORS
CONFINING THE AFGHAN REFUGEES TO THEIR CAMPS, OR AT LEAST
RESTRICTING THEIR MOVEMENTS IN PESHAWAR. THERE IS A FURTHER
POLITICAL DIMENSION IN THAT THE FRONTIER GOVERNMENT'S INABILITY
TO CONTROL THE BOMBINGS HAS BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE BITTER
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STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/19: CIA-RDP96R01136R001302480003-9
-
PERSONAL AND POLITICAL FEUD BETWEEN FEDERAL INTERIOR
MINISTER
MOHAMMAD ASALAM KHAN KHATTAK AND PROVINCIAL CHIEF MINISTER
ARBAB MOHAMMAD JEHANGIR KHANRM WE BELIEVE THE PROVINCIAL
GOVERNMENT WILL RESPOND TO ALL THIS BY TRYING TO RESTRICT
THE REFUGEES, SEPTEL PROVIDES A CHRONOLOGY ANE ANALYSIS OF THE
BOMBINGS. END SUMMARY.
THE REFUGEE DIMENTION -- ROUND 'EM UP AND MOVE 'EM OUT
3. DATING FROM JANKARY, WE CAN DISCERN A TANGIBLE SHIFT IN
PUBLIC ATTITUDES, AT LEAST AMONG URBANITES, TOWARD THE AFGHAN
REFUGEDS. THE JANUARY DATE REPRESENTS THE BEGINNING OF THE
CURRENT TERRORIST
CAMPAIGN AGAINST HIGH-VISIBILITY TARGETS
WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF CAUSING MASS CASUALTIES. LAST YEAR,
WHEN WE LOOKED AT ZONITUDES IN THE FRONTIER TOWARD THE REFUGEES,
WE FOUND SOME EVIDENCE OF GROWING CONCERN BUT ALSO A HIGH DEGREE
OF TOLERATION. THE REFUGEES AFFECTED THE DAILY LIVES OF THE
PESHAWAR URBAN POPULATION BUT WERE NOT SEEN TO BE MORE THAN A
BOTHERSOME INTRUSION. (#), HOWEVER, THE BOMBINGS HAVE CHANGED
THAT PERCEPTION. THE AFGHAN REFUGEE PRESENCE IS SEEN TO BE
A THREAT TO THE PERSONAL SAFETY OF THE URBAN PESHAWAR
POPULATION.
4. THE OFFICIAL AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF THE TERRORISTS IS
THAT THEY ARE AGENTS OF THE AFGHAN (DRA) GOVERNMENT WHO ARE
INFILTRATED INTO THE FRONTIER PROVINCE IN THE GUISE OF AFGHAN
REFUGEES. (#) ALL AFGHANS ARE SEEN TO BE POTENTIAL BOMBERS.
WE NOTE THAT AFTER THE JUNE (#) BOMB (SEPTEL) AT THE GORKHATRI
POLICE STATION, THE IMMEDIATE REACTION ON THE PART OF THE POLICE
BCAS TO ARREST ALL NEARBY AFGHANS. NTHE VUBLIC REACTION IS VERY
SIGNIFICANT: THE POLIIE HAD TO RESCUE ONE AFGHWN PASSERBY
FROM AN ANGRY CROWD WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BEATING HIM
UP.
5. IN ADDITION TO THE BOMBINGS, HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THERE HAS
BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE PUBLIC ATTITUDE OWARD THE
REFUGEES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE REFUGEE FLOW IN 1978-79,
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SOVIETS INVADED IN DECEMBER, 1979,
THE REFUGEES WERE WELCOMED WITH OPEN ARMS. MANY WERE OLD,
EVERY YOUNG, OR FEMALE, ILL, STARVIRG AND POOR. THE COMMON LAN-
RGUAGE, CULTURE, AND RELIGION SHARED BY THE REFUGEES AND TC
FRONTIER PATHANS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WELCOME THE REFUGEES
RECEIVED. AT THAT TIME, THE REFUGEES: (1) EID NOT PLACE A
SIGNIFICANT BURDEN ON LOCAL RESOURCES; (2) DID NOT COMPETE
IN THE ECONOMY; (3) WERE NOT GINKED TO LAW AND ORDER PROBLEMS;
(4) WERE NOT ARMED; AND (5) WERE NOT SEEN AS A PERMANENT
FIXTURE. THESE PERCEPTIONS HAVE NOW SHIFTED ADVERSELY. THE
REFUGEES ARE PERCEIVED TO BE A MAJOR PART OF THE LAW AND ORDER
PROBLEM IN THE PROVINCE. THEY ARE ARMED, AND THEIR ARMS ARE
SPILLING OVER INTO PAKISTANI HANDS. THEY BURDEN LOCAL RESOURCES
(HOSPITALS, ROADY, FORESTS, ETC.). OHEY COMPETE IN BUSINESSES.
THEY OWN SHOPS, BUSES AND TAXIS, HOOELS, AND SIDEWALK VENDING
OUTLETS. TO MOST PEOPLE HERE, THE TERM "AFGHAN REFUGEE"
CONFIDENTIAL
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HAS SHIFTED IN MEANING. WHEN A PESHAWARITE THING OF AN "AFGHAN,"
THE MOST COMMON IMAGE, WE BELIEVE, IS A WELL-FED YOUNG MAN,
LIKELY ARMED, WHO HAS COME TO PESHWAR TO HAVE A GOOD TIME
AND WHO MIGHT VERY WELL BE A OERRORIST ZOMBER SENT BY THE OTHER
SIDE. THE MORE COMMON REFUGEES -- THE OLD MEN, THE WOMEN
THE CHILDREN WHO MAKE UP THE MAJORITY OF THE REFUGEE POPULATION --
ARE SELDOM SEEN OUT OF THE CAMPS, AND THE PAKISTANI MAN IN THE
STREET NEVER VISITS THE CAMPS TO SEE FOR HIMSELF THE CONDITIONS
OF THE REFUGEES.
C ONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 03 PESHAWAR 0929
TERREP
SECSTATE FOR NPT, AID/ANE, DS, RP, M/CTP
E.O. 12356: DECL: OAY
TAGS: PTER, PREF, PGOV, PK, AF
SUBJECT: TERRORIST BOMBING CAMPAIGN SUCCEEDING REFUGEE-LTCAL
RELATIONS ON A SLIDE
6. THIS CHANGE IN PAKISTANI ATTITUDES TOWAWF THE REFUGEES
HAS RESULTED IN INCREASINGNDEMANDS THAT THE REFUGEES BE PUT OUT
OF SIGHT. FTR EXAMPLE, FRONTIER MINISTER FOR HOUSING AND PHYSICAL
PLANNING AND DEPUTY MAYOR OF PESHAWAR HAJI MOHAMMAD JAVED
(WHO IS ABOUT AS LIBERAL A POLITICIAN AS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
PROVINCE) SAID THIS WEEK THAT IT WOULD BE IN THE INTEREST OF
THE REFUGEES AND OF THE CITIZE S OF THE FRONTIER TO SHIFT THE
REFUGEES TO THE CAMPS, INSTEAD OF IAUSING "AN ENORMOUS SCARE
AND PANIC" THROUGH THEIR PRESENCE IN THE URBAN AREAS. HE SAID
THAT THE PROVINCIALTGOVERNMENT HAD "PUT FORWARD A PLAN" TO
SHIFT THE REFUGEES, WHICH HE EXPECTED 00 BE APPROVED BY THE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. IN ADDITION, THE MUSLIM HAS REPORTED A
"HEATED" PROVINCIAL CABINET MEETING, WITH SOME MINISTERS DEMANDING
STRICTER CONTROLS ON THE REFUGEES. SEVERAL COMMITTEES OF SHOP-
KEEPERS AND CITIZENS HAVE BEEN SET UP TO INCREASE VIGILANCE
AND TO PRESS FOR A SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM.
7. THE POLICE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ONE OF THEIR PERIODIC ROUNDUPS
OF YOUNG AFGHAN MEN IN THE CITY. REPORTEDLY, OVER 5,000
AFGHANS HAVE BEEN ARRESTED AND SENT TO THE PROVINCIAL REFUGEE
COMMISSIONERATE FOR "VERIFICATION" OF THEIR STATUS AS REFUGEES.
THIS CAMPAIGN, WHICH BEGAN LAST WEEK, INVOLVES CHECKING ALL
AFGHAN-LOOKING MEN IN THE CITY. IF THEIR DOCUMENTS ARE SUSPECT,
OR IF THEY HAVE NO DOCUMENTS, THEY ARE SHIPPED TO THE COMHIS-
SIONERATE FOR THE WZVERIFICATION" PROIESS AND IF ALL IS I
ORDER, ARE SENT TO THE CAMP WHERE THEY ARE REGISTERED. THE
FRONTIER HOME SECRETARY TOLD US LAST WEEK THAT THIS IS DIRECTED
AT THE "SCATTERED" REFUGEES, I.E., THOSE WHO ARE NOT LIVING IN
THE CAMPS, AND IS INTENDED TO DETER THE TERRTRISTS BY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR AFGHANS TO MOVE AROUND WITH IMPUNITY IN PESHAWAR.
PAST EXPERIENCE WITH SIMILAR CAMPAIGNS HAS BEEN THAT, ABSENT
POLITICAL PRESSURE, THE POLICE CANNOT SUSTAIN IT FOR MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOWEVER, WITH THE POPULAR POLITICAL PRESSURE
NOW EMERGING, WE BELIEVE SOME FURTHER RESTRICTIONS ON AFGHANS
WILL BE IMPOSED, AND THE POLICE WILL ENFORCE THE RESTRICTIONS
(ESPECIALLY SINCE POLICE SEEM TO BE A MAJOR TARGET OF THE BOMBING
CAMPAIGN).
CONFIDENTIAL
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THE POLITIQAL FALLOUT -- PARTIES INTO THE ACT
8. THERE IS ALSO A DOMESTIC POLITICAL DIMENSION TO THE CAMPAIGN
ASIDE FROM ITS IMPACT ON OHE AFGHAN REFUGEES. GOVDRNMENT FIGURES,
THE POLITICAL PARTY OPPOSITION, AND THE AFGHAN LEADERS ARE
INVOLVED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT IS HOW THE DETERIORATING
SECURITY SITUATION HERE FITS INTO THE CONTINUING BITTER FEUD
BETWEEN FEDERAL INTERIOR MINISTER MOHAMMAD ASALAM KHAN KHATTAK AND
FRONTIER CHIEF MINISTER ARBAB MOHAMMAD JEHANGIR KHAN. THE FEUD,
WHICH DATES AT LEAST FROM ARBAB'S DROPPCNG KHATTAK'S SON-IN-LAW
FROM THE FRONTIER CABINET LAST YEAR, HAD A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON
GOP ACTIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POPPY ENFORCEMENT CTNFRONTATION
IN GADOON IN MARCH. NOW, KHATTAK SEEMS DETERMINED (FROM OUR
PERSPECTIVE HERE) TO USE THE "LAW AND ORDER SITUATION" AS A
RATIONALE TO DISCREDIT THE CHIEF MINISTER AND TO SUPPORT
KHATTAK'S PRESDNT CAMPAIGN TO REMOVE THE ARBAZ. KHATTAK HAS
ANNOUNCED THAT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WILL LOOK INTO THE LAW AND
ORDER SITUATION IN THE PROVINCE, UNDOUBTEDLY IN PART TO PROVIDE
A FORUM TO AIR CHARGES THAT THE CHIEF MINISTER IS INCAPABLE OF
HANDLING THE SITUATION.
9. FURTHERMORE, THE POLITICAL PARTIES AND EVDN ONE AFGHAN
RESISTANCE LEADER HAVE ENTERED THE FRAY. BENAZIR, ACCORDING TO
"THE MUSLIM" VERSION OF HER JUNE 20 SPEECH IN KARACHI, CALLS THE
BOMBINGS A MEANS "TO DIVERT THE ATTENTION OF THE PEOPLE FROM
THEIR STRUGGLE...." IF WE READ THE REPORT IN "THE MUSLIM"
CORRECTLY, SHE HINTED THAT THE AUTHORITIES WERE RESPONSIBLE.
THD JAMIAT-I-ISLAMI'S QAZI HUSSAIN AHMAD, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS
BLAMED THE PAKISTAN NATIONAL PARTY (PNP) AND THE NATIONAL
DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP) FOR THE BOMBINGS, AND SAYS THAT THE
INTERIOR MINISTER AND THE CHIEF MINISTER ARE DEFENDING THE SECU-
LARIST LEFT PARTIESWM AFGHAN RESISTANCE LEADER GULBADDIN HEKMATYAR
SUPPORTS THE JI VIEW. THE NDP, FOR ITS PART, BLAMES THE "PRO-
U.S." POLICIES OF THE JI FOR THE PROBLEM.
C ONFIDENTIALSECTION 03 OF 03 PESHAWAR 0929
TERREP
SECSTATE FOR NEA, AID/ANE, DS, RP, M/CTP
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PTER, PREF, PGOV PK, AF
SUBJECT: TERRORIST BOMBING CAMPAIGN SUCCEEDING: REFUGEE-LOCAL
RELATIONS ON A SLIDE
10. FINALLY, WE NEED TO HIGHLIGHT ONE UNDERCURRENT IN THE
SITUATION HERE. THE NDP (AND TO SOME EXTENT THE LOCAL PPP)
VIEW IS ESSENTIALLY THAT THE UNITED STATES IS INTERESTED IN PRO-
LONGING THE CONFLICT IN AFGHANISTAN AND THAT IT IS U.S. SUPPORT
FOR THE REFUGEES AND THE MUJAHIDEEN THAT IS SUSTAINING THE WAR.
FRTM THIS POINT OF VIEW, THOSE WHO ACCEPT THIS PREMISE WOULD ARGUE
THE CONVOLUTED LOGIC THAT IT IS THE AMERICANS WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE BOMBINGS. FORTUNATELY, OUR SENSE IS THAT ONLY A MINORITY
HOLD THIS VIEWPOINT, BUT IT IS INEVITABLE THAT SOME OF THE
BLAME WILL RUB OFF ON US. AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE STRUCK BY THE
DEGREE TO WHICH THE URBAN POPULATION ACCEPTS THAT THE DRA IS
BEHIND THE CAMPAIGN, AND AT THE SAME TIME DOES NOT FIND FAULT
CONFIDENTIAL
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WITH THEIR USE OF THIS TACTIC. THE BLAME FOR THE INCIDENTS
REVOLVES BACK ONTO THE REFUGEES AND THE GOP.
WHAT IS THIS LEADING TO?
(#)
11.
WE BELIEVE IT IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THAT SOME LEGAL RESTRIC-
TION WILL BE PLACED ON THE AFGHAN REFUGEES, AT LEAST IN AND AROUND
PESHAWAR, WHICH WILL RESTRICT THEM TO THE REFUGEE CAMPS, AT
LEAST DURING SOME HOURS OF THE DAY AND NIGHT. WE SUSPECT A
FORMAL CURFEW-LIKE RESTRICTION IS MOST LIKELY, EXTENDING THE
INFORMAL CURFEW ON AFGHANS NOW IN FORCE.
12. IF THE BOMBINGS CONTINUE -- AND WE BELIEVE THEY WILL, WITH
INCREASING SEVERITY AND MORE CAREFUL, MORE CLEVER TARGETING --
PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD THE REFUGEES WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN VIGILANTISM
AGAINST AFGHANS ON THE PART OF PAKISTANIS, AS PEOPLE TAKE THE LAW
INTO THEIR OWN HANDS. AND THE FRONTIER GOVERNMENT COULD BE IN
TROUBLE.
13. THIS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IS AN EXAMPLE OF TERRORISM ACHIEVING
ITS AIMS, WHICH ARE SEEN HERE TO BE TWO-FOLD: IN THE SHORT RUN,
TO POISON THE RELATIONSMIP BETWEEN THE LOCAL POPULATION AND THE
REFUGEES, AND IN THE LONG-TERM TO SOFTEN UP THE GOP ATTITUDE
AT GENEVA. THE BOMBERS HAVE ACHIEVED THE FIRST OBJECTIVE.
14. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. EASTHAM
END OF MESSAGE CONFIDENTIAL
NNDD
NNNN
C ONFIDENTIAL
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