AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96R01136R001302320001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 25, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Afghanistan Situation Report
1 October 1985
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NESA M 85-I0199JX
SOYA M 85-10I78JX
I October 1985
CODV 091
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
CONTENTS
FIGHTING IN PAKTIA, MAZAR-E SHARIF DIES DOWN
Fighting has decreased in Paktia Province anR
Mazar-e Sharif,
IN BRIEF
PERSPECTIVE
THE AFGHAN AIR FORCE: MOSCOW'S UNRELIABLE ALLY
The Afghan Air Force is plagued by sabotage, poor
morale, and defections that restrict its role in
the war and force the Soviet Air Force to bear the
lion's share of the fighting.
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis.
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FIGHTING IN PAKTIA, MAZAR?E SHARIF DIES DOWN
Fighting in Paktia Province, which resulted in numerous
casualties, appears to have trailed off during the
final week of September. Insurgent forces attacked
outlying Afghan guard posts established during the
height of the Soviet campaign, and drove the
government's forces back into
Khowst.
I -II .1141111-.
With ground operations drawing to a close, the Soviets
are relying more heavily on airstrikes against
suspected insurgent positions and infiltration
routes. On 24 September, the Soviets launched hundreds
of air sorties during a major assault on the Shomali
and Paghman areas just north of Kabul, according to
sources of the US Embassy in Kabul.
In the capital, insurgents are maintaining pressure on
the Afghan government. They rocketed Kabul airport--
inflicting limited damage--on the nights of 17 and
24 September, and attacked vehicle convoys along the
Salang Highway on 23 September.
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IN BRIEF
-- Afghanistan's Deputy Minister of Internal Trade
complained to the Soviets that no deliveries of
TS-1 jet fuel had been received for the period
22 August to 12 September at Jeyretan.
the fuel shortage is
causing delays in Bakhtar Airlines flights.
The treasurer of the Afghan National Bank has
vanished, taking with him all the bank's foreign
currency,
His departure follows
KHAD's treasurer, who
currency.
the recent disappearance of
also embezzled KHAD's foreign
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PERSPECTIVE
THE AFGHAN AIR FORCE:
MOSCOW'S UNRELIABLE ALLY
The Afghan Air Force remains an unreliable Soviet ally
that suffers from both a lack of combat will and
internal unrest. These problems are largely caused by
improved insurgent military performance, Soviet
domination, Muslim sympathy for the insurgents, and
feuding between the two factions of the Afghan ruling
party. Although the Air Force's unreliability has
limited its participation in the war, the Soviets
believe the Air Force can play an important role over
the longer term. Because prospects for improved
performance are poor, however, we expect the Soviets
will continue to assume the lion's share of the air
war.
Reliability Problems
The Afghan Air Force suffers from a lack -of combat
will, sabotage, and defections. Air Force defectors
say Soviet advisers often fly with Afghan fighter
pilots to prevent them from jettisoning their bombs
before they reach insurgent targets. One defector
asserts that pilots try to avoid approaching heavily
armed insurgent bands closely even when Soviet advisers
are present.
Saboteurs are active in the Air. Force.
Air
Force officers blew up 21 Afghan planes at Shindand
Airbase in June 1985; nearly succeeded in carrying out
a similar action at Bagram Airbase; and tried twice to
sabotage the aircraft of General Abdul Fatah, the
second in command of the Air Force.
the Afghan secret police
personnel in 1983 for removing
executed four Air Force
bomb fuses.
Defections also plague the Air Force. Air Force pilots
and crews defected to Pakistan with two MI-25
helicopters in 1985, and pilots defected with an AN-26
transport plane in 1984, an SU-22 fighter in 1983 and
an MI-8 helicopter in 1981.
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Reasons for Poor Performance
We believe that improved insurgent military
performance, Soviet domination, sympathy for the
insurgents, and rivalry between the Afghan ruling
party's two factions largely explain the Air Force's
unreliability. Afghan Air Force defectors say that
Afghan pilots are reluctant to close in on insurgent
bases because insurgents have more heavy machineguns
and SA-7 antiaircraft missiles than they have had in
the past. One pilot defector says that the insurgents
also have learned to fire at the upper surfaces of
helicopters, which are less heavily armored than the
lower surfaces.
Soviet domination of
the Afghan Air Force has also caused widespread
resentment among Afghan airmen. One defector estimates
that only a third of the pilots are pro-Soviet. Soviet
advisers must approve all Air Force operations, and the
Soviets control operations unilaterally in the northern
provinces, 1 The advisers
choose all bombing targets and brief Afghan pilots only
an hour before bombing missions, giving only the
takeoff time, tar'get coordinates, and a sketchy
description of the target. They never allow Afghan
pilots -to attack targets of opportunity. -
We believe that sympathy for the insurgents contributes
to the Air Force's unreliability. Many support
personnel who do not face insurgents in combat probably
sympathize with the guerrillas, and even Air Force
pilots are generally apolitical, in our view.
Soviet mechanics
and never allow them
closely monitor Afghan mechanics
to work on Soviet aircraft.
Political infighting between the Khalqi and Parchami
factions of the ruling party also promotes poor
morale. each
faction blamed the other for the Shindand incident.
Soviet advisers have also criticized the two factions
for their lack of cooperation and periodic clashes. We
believe these tensions are exacerbated by the imbalance
between the Parchami-dominated Air Force high command
and the rank-and-file, where Khalgis outnumber
Parchamis by two to one.
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Implications
The Afghan Air Force's unreliability impedes the Soviet
war effort, in our view. The lack of reliable pilots
largely explains, for example, why the number of Afghan
aircraft has only increased by about 10 percent since
1979. Air Force defectors, moreover, say the Air Force
never participates in combat operations involving
Soviet troops or combined Soviet-Afghan Army operations
because Soviet officials consider Afghan pilots
unreliable and are afraid they might bomb Soviet
troops. the
Afghan secret police must devote more agents to
monitoring Air Force personnel because of increased
sabotage and defections.
Despite these problems, Moscow apparently still hopes
the Air Force can play an important role in the war
over the longer term.
a more
loyal Afghan Air Force would ease the burden on their
own Air Force.
the Soviets are replacing Afghan air losses relatively
quickly; the aircraft destroyed at Shindand Airbase in
June were replaced shortly after the incident. Because
substantial improvements in Afghan Air Force
performance are unlikely any time soon, however, we
believe the Soviets will continue to bear the brunt of
the air war.
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Afghan Air Force Order of Battle
Most helicopters are based
at Kabul, but most fighter-bombers are based at
Bagram--reflecting the relatively greater strategic
importance of eastern Afghanistan. The Air Force is
commanded by Major General Abdul Qadr, an engineer who
has been a member of the People's Democratic Party of
Afghanistan since its inception 20 years ago.
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