AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2013
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: February 28, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R61136R001202230004-6
?11ip-Secr
Directorate of
Intelligence
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Afghanistan Situation Report
28 February 1984
1---74-113*) efet_:
NESA M 84-10081 CX
C111/ A AA R4-1/11)2,1rY
28 February 1984
Copy 7 t
? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6 _
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
CONTENTS
PAKISTAN RECONSIDERING ITS AFGHAN POLICY?
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Public discussion of Islamabad's policy may
2
indicate a policy
review, but we expect Zia to continue his
strong stand.
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CHERNENKO'S POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN
3
Moscow's snub of Zia during Andrropov's funeral
may reflect Chernenko's
reluctance to challenge hardliners such as Ustinov.
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IN BRIEF
3
28 February 1984
NESA M 84-10081CX
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This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern and South
Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis.
II
28 February 1984
NESA M 84-10081CX
SOVA M 84-10024CX
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28 February 1984
NESA M 84-10081CX
SOVA M 84-10024CX 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
PAKISTAN RECONSIDERING ITS AFGHAN POLICY?
At a seminar in Islamabad this month, several prominent
participants called for greater Pakistani efforts to negotiate an
Afghan settlement. The press has given considerable play to
statements by well known scholars that the Soviet presence in
Afghanistan is permanent. One journalist has published a series
about the "intolerable" burden of the refugees and called for a
negotiated settlement on Soviet terms. According to the US
Embassy, reporters in Pakistan believe these discussions are
either trial balloons to test public reaction to a policy change
or signals to the US.
Comment:
CHERNENKO'S POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN
General Secretary Chernenko met Indian Prime Minister Gandhi
and Afghan President Babrak after Andropov's funeral but, unlike
Andropov after Brezhnev's funeral, ignored Pakistani President
Zia's request for a meeting. The Soviets also have quickly
rescheduled Defense Minister Ustinov's trip to India, which was
postponed during Andropov's final illness
Comment:
These decisions suggest that Moscow has little interest in
negotiations on Afghanistan and that it wants to increase Zia's
concerns about the possibility of a tougher Soviet posture.
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28 February 1984
NESA M 84-10081CX
SOVA M 84-10024CX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
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IN BRIEF
hardliners, such as Ustinov, may
have forced the decision to invade on a reluctant Brezhnev and
his allies, including Chernenko. Chernenko may not now have
enough political support to challenge present policy. More
important, any radical departure would have higher political,
economic, or military costs that would be difficult to sell to
the Politburo.
-- Insurgents dramatically increased their attacks in Kabul last
week--the anniversary of the 1980 anti?Soviet uprising--despite
the tightest regime security measures in three years, according
to US Embassy reporting.
-- According to .US Embassy sources, insurgents attacked and
briefly occupied one of the three main Soviet posts on the
Elandahar?Herat road last week.
-- The US Consul in Peshawar reports a growing number of stories
about resistance leaders selling weapons either for orof it or for
money to obtain supplies they need more.
-- Last week's Literary Gazette, a magazine for Soviet
intellectuals, praised the work of Soviet helicopter pilots in
Afghanistan and for the first time told a Soviet audience they
"shoot bandits" and "drop bombs." Heretofore the only hint of
combat involvement came in articles noting that pilots often had
to carry out humanitarian or rescue missions under hostile fire.
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-- According to the Pakistanis, UN Special Representative
Cordovez will arrive in Islamabad on 31 March or 1 April
following talks in Kabul.
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jamiat leader Rabbani both raised the
expulsion of Afghan refugees with the Iranians when they were in
Tehran for the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Gulbuddin
later told the US Consul in Peshawar that high level officials
are involved in inciting clashes between Iranians and refugees.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/01 : CIA-RDP96R01136R001202230004-6
28 February 1984
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