AC TECHNICAL TRIALS: INSPIRATION FOR THE TARGET ENTROPY CONCEPT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00791R000200260001-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
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• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 26, 1995
• Content Type: RP

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AC Technical Trials V4 26 May 1995
AC Technical Trials:
Inspiration for the Target Entropy Concept
by
Edwin C. May, Ph.D.
Science Applications International Corporation
Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
Palo Alto, CA
Abstract
Two anomalous cognition trials are presented in which the targets were high-technology
directed energy systems. The protocols, fuzzy set analyses, and results are presented in the
context of exploration and hypothesis formulation .rather than hypothesis testing. The
qualitative success of these trials, taken with similar successes throughout the years of the
SRI International program, inspired the design of the Shannon entropy experiments that
were conducted in the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory in 1993. Potential target confounds
are also discussed in the context of these trials.
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Introduction
Hypothesis testing and formulatian are the corner stones of modern research
methodologies. We have become focused on the former and have become quite proficient.
Because of resource limitations and journal and/or grant-proposal restrictions, exploratory
orhypothesis-formulation oriented experiments rarely appear in the literature. Discussions
of hypotheses are usually restricted to theoretical papers or pilot studies. But the attitude of
"Let's try something and see what happens." is one part of a balanced approach to good
research.
Our sponsor was interested in determining the degree to which elements of high-
technology targets could be sensed by.anomalous cognition (AC).* It is in this context that
two trials of AC are presented when complex, high-technology systems were used as
targets.
During the Cognitive Science Program at SRI International, we were often asked to explore
the efficacy of AC in a variety of situations. Contractual agreements rarely allowed for an
opportunity to make these widely separated trials into any semblance of a formal
experiment. Yet, these trials were not wasted in that they provided insight into data-
collection protocols, potential mechanisms, and analysis techniques that have led to formal
and publishable experiments.
Two such trials have been selected from our collection to illustrate specific points about the
AC process and to present some of the -data that inspired the postulate that changes of
entropy may be related to target visibility in AC experiments (May, Spottiswood, and
James, 1994). No other meaning should be ascribed to the trials in this paper. The
analyses were all done post hoc and no statistical calculations were performed. The
success or failure of the approach can only be assessed by the outcomes of carefully
executed experiments that test the concepts that were inspired by the trials shown in this
paper. These examples are worthy of public discussion, nonetheless, because the
qualitative correspondences of the responses to their intended targets may inspire others to
explore different directions, and there may be value in understanding the circumstances that
produced the entropy experiments.
In these trials, receiver 372 was targeted on an individual and asked to describe that
person's surroundings-not unlike the remote viewing experiments of Futhoff and Targ
' The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory has adopted the term anomalous mental phenomena instead of the
more widely known psi. Likewise, we use the terms anomalous cognition and anomalous perturbation far
ESP and PK, respectively. We have done so because we believe that these terms are more naturally
descriptive of the observables and are neutral in that they da not imply mechanisms. These new terms will
be used throughout this paper.
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AC Technical Trials V4 26 May 1995
(1976). The difference was that these targets were complex, high-technology, directed
energy systems.
Far each trial, the sponsor received a 60-page document describing the protocols, analysis,
conclusions, and all the raw data.
In this paper, I summarize the information from these reports, show the qualitative
agreement with the targets and demonstrate a post hoc application of fuzzy set analysis
(May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivald, and Trask, 1990) to technical targets, all of which
were contributing factors that inspired later experiments.
Method
Between 1987 and 1990, we conducted three trials in which the target systems were
pulsed, high~nergy systems. The first two trials were analyzed, post hoc, by a fuzzy set
technique; however, the third and final trial in the series was never analyzed because the
contract ended.
First Trial -May 1987
It is important to Specify who knew what and when in this trial. I, as project director, was
completely informed about the details of the trial, the identity of the sponsor, and the target
system. The receiver (372), an AC-monitor, and the remainder of the SRI staff were blind
to all these details. They knew, however, that significant attention was focused on the trial
and that the target system was in the San Francisco Bay Area. It was reasonable for the
participants to assume that the target might be of a technical nature, given all the attention
for the trial. The Bay Area, however, is rich with technical target possibilities. For
example, there are many aerospace companies, semiconductor manufacturing facilities,
particle accelerators, radar installations, military air fields, and Naval bases. Thus, we felt
that the trial was not significantly compromised.
Protocol
On 6 May 19$7 receiver 372 traveled to Menlo Park in preparation fora 24-hour trial that
was to begin at 0800 hours on 7 May.
Receiver 372 and the monitor were told that an individual from the sponsoring
organization, who was described by name and Social Security number and who was not
known to any of the SRI staff, was in the target area during the AC sessions. In addition,
they were told that, as part of the trial, two members of the SRI Cognitive Sciences
Laboratory staff who were known to them, would serve as a "beacon" and would be at the
specific target of interest between 2200 hours an 7 May and 0800 hours on 8 May.
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Four sessions were conducted to provide information at approximately 8-hour intervals.
The time and circumstances were as follows:
(1) 0800 Hours. Receiver 372 was asked to describe the geographical area and the gestalt
of the area of interest. He was also asked to provide as much detail as possible in real-
time (i.e., at 0$35) and was targeted upon the sponsor's on-site representative.
(2) 1010 Hours. The receiver was asked to describe the details and activity at the site
designated by the sponsor's on-site representative as of 0000 hours 7 May (i.e., the
previous night).
(3) 1600 Hours. The receiver was asked to describe, in real-time, the details and activity
at the site designated by the sponsar's on-site representative.
(4) 2400 Hours. The receiver was asked to describe, in real-time the details and activity at
the site designated by two SRI personnel.
During each session receiver 372's responses were tape recorded, and he was encouraged
to draw details whenever possible. The monitor was free to seek clarification of specific
points throughout the sessions.
Analysis Technique
The data were analyzed by a variant of the fuzzy set technique described by May et al.
(1990). In this section I provide a review of that procedure and outline the specific
application for this trial.
A set is simply a collection if items that share a common property (e.g., the cities that have
population over 1,000,000). Descriptor lists, which have been used in AC analyses
(Hanortan; 1975 and Jahn, Dunne, and Jahn, 1980) are examples of crisp sets. That is,
the answer to the question, "Is the target primarily indoors?" must be yes or no. Fuzzy
sets are not as restrictive; they were invented to address subjective concepts. For example,
an important feature of a target might be "shady." A fuzzy set question for this feature is,
"Rate on a scale between zero and one, the degree to which you feel that the concept
`shady' characterizes the target." A target encoder could answer zero for a Sahara desert
target or one for a rain forest target or more likely something in between such as 0.6 for a
city park target an a sunny day.
May et al. (1990) emphasize that the analysis of AC data with fuzzy sets is quite general.
An experimenter is free to chose the type of elements he or she wishes to examine in the
target. In their application, May et. al. used visual importance to the target as their
measures. In the examples shown in this paper, importance to the technical target of any
kind is used instead. The formal definition of a target set and a response set follows
below, regardless of the meaning of the specific elements. The universal set of elements is,
by definition, experiment dependent.
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Target Defuition. The target is a fuzzy set T on a universal set of elements, where the kth
element is characterized by a membership value, Tk, and a weighting factor, wk. The
membership values are on the closed interval [0,1] and represent the degree to which the
kth element is a member of T. For example, suppose that the element "testing shielding
effectiveness" is only apropos to 20% of the total target system. Then the membership
value for this element would be 0.2.
The weighting factors, wk, allow for adjusting the elements of T toward trial relevance. In
the example, suppose that the sponsor was primarily interested in determining the degree to
which AC can be used to sense "testing shielding effectiveness," regardless of its
membership value. The weighting factor could be set five times larger than any other
weighting factor in T to emphasize this interest.
Response Definition. The response is a fuzzy set R on the universal set of elements,
where the kth element is characterized by a membership value, R~, The membership values
are in the closed interval [0,1] and, differing from their definitions for the target, represent
the degree to which an analyst is subjectively convinced that the kth element is a member of
R. For example, declarative statements such as "there is shielding at the target" would
receive a membership value of 1.0, while "something massive at the site," might only be
assigned a membership value 0.40 for this element.
Universal Set of Elemen .The universal set of elements (USE) and weighting factors for
this trial were determined post hoc by the sponsor and the author, who was blind to the
response, and were latter extended by the response elements that were not present in the
target. Such elements were assigned a membership value of 0.0 in T.
From the response and target fuzzy sets we define:
+- Accuracy as the percent of the target that was described colrrectly in the response:
~jwk 1111n(Tk~Rk~
accuracy = k
~ Reliability as the percent of the response that was correctly identified in the target:
~wk min~Tk, Rk )
reliability = k
1't'k Rk
k
.The index k ranges over all elements in the USE, and we note that both accuracy and
reliability are in the closed interval [0,1]. Clearly, neither of these can be used as a good
measure of AC by themselves. After all, a receiver could offer an encyclopedia as a
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response and guarantee an accuracy of 100% in that all target elements will eventually be
described. In this case the reliability would be quite low because of so much incorrect
material in the response. Likewise, a single ward response such as "outdoors" might yield
a reliability of 100% but the accuracy would be quite low.
To address this problem in laboratory experiments, a figure of merit is formed by
multiplying accuracy with reliability and is computed for all possible targets in a pool.
Thus, to obtain a high figure of merit a reasonable fraction of the target must be correctly
described in a relatively error free response. Rank-order statistics are then used to compute
p-values and effect sizes. Our qualitative laboratory experience arising from cross match
studies provides a "rule of thumb:" far random data, accuracy and reliability are each
approximately 1/3 for a figure of merit of 0.111.
In the trials described in this paper, however, there was no a priori intent to design a
statistically valid measure. Rather, accuracy, reliability and visual and conceptual
correspondence with the targets were contributing factors to the design of later statistically-
oriented experiments.
Accuracy and Reliability Calculations
For this and the following trial, the elements in the USE were split into there categories
according to whether they described target function, physical relationships among objects,
or objects. These categories were assigned weights of 1.0, 0.75, and 0.5, respectively.
Three separate targets were identified depending upon where the beacon person was at the
time of the session. The primary target system was the Advanced Technology Accelerator
located approximately 15 km from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). A
secondary target was the windmill farm at the Altamont pass, and a tertiary target was the
West gate of LLNL. Since the sponsor was mostly interested in the accelerator, these
targets were weighted 1.0, 0.50, and 0.25, respectively, to form an average accuracy and
reliability for the trial.
Sixty seven individual elements comprised the USE for the accelerator target, and Table 1
shows selected values of Sl, T, and R as illustrations. S2 represent the relative weights
within a category so that the wk in the expressions for the accuracy and reliability are given
by the product of the group weight and S2. For example, wk for "Tunnel" under Objects is
(SZ=2.0) x (group weitht=0.5) = 1.0. The weighting factors and the membership values
were assigned post hoc by the sponsor and me.
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Elements
S2k
Tk
Rk
Functions (1.0)
Directed energy
S
1
0.9
Electron accelerator
3
1
1
Beam ionizes air
1
1
0.6
Testin new form of laser
1
0
1
Relationships (0.75)
Power source above beam line
1
1
0
Linear array of buildings
1
1
0.1
E&M radiation < 10 Angstroms
1
0.1
1
Pi es into and out of s here
1
0
1
Objects (O.S)
External electron beam
S
1
0
Tunnel
2
1
1
Loud noise
1
0.3
1
Hollow olished internal s here
1
0
1
Table 2 shows the complete target and response sets and their weights for the windmill
target. Table 3 shows selected elements from the USE for the LLNL West gate target.
Elements
S~k
T~
Rk
Functions (1.0)
Wind-powered electricity generation
2.S
1
0.9
Relationshi~l0.7S1
Poles scattered in hills
1
1
1
Poles connected in a grid
1.S
1
1
Objects (O.S)
Foothills
1
1
1
Electrical grid
1
1
1
Rotating blades
1
1
0.8
Multi 1e wind enerators
1
1
1
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Elements
S~k
Tk
Rk
Functions (1.0)
Multipurpose laboratory complex
5
1
0.8
Six-story administration building
4
1
1
Relationships (0.75)
T-shaped, six-story building
3
1
1
Swimming pool Northeast of tall building
1
0
1
Large parking lot just west of tall building
1
1
1
Segmented 1-story buildings North of tall building
1
1
0.2
Objects (0.5)
Tall building
2
1
1
Parking lot
1
1
1
Building with cylindrical shaped roof
1
1
0.4
Lar e mountain
1
0
1
Feedback
Receiver 372? was given verbal feedback immediately after the trial and was presented
photographic material on the accelerator, the windmill farm, and the West gate
approximately six months later.
Results
Table 4 shows the accuracy and reliability computed from a1167 elements in the USE. The
calculations are shown for the separate element categories for the accelerator target and
summary data far the other targets.
Accuracy and Reliability for High Technology Trial 1
Target Type
Accuracy
Reliability
Accelerator (1:0)
Functions
0.93
0.70
Relationships
0.36
0.31
Objects
0.73
0.88
Total
0.67
0.63
Windmill Farm (0.5)
Total
0.95
1.00
LLNL West Gate (0.25)
Total
0.85
0.95
Combined Total
Q,~
g~
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Since the wk include the category weighting factors, the totals for each target type are linear
averages; however, the combined total is a weighted average across target types with the
weighting factors shown.
Samples of Visual Correspondence
Figures 1-3 show representative samples to illustrate the qualitative correspondence for the
accelerator, windmill farm and West gate targets. The accelerator is shown as a partial
drawing, but the remaining response are the complete drawings for the targets.
Discussion
We see from Table 4, that everything that 372 said about the windmill farm was correct
(i.e., reliability of one) and almost all of the sponsor-designated target elements were
perceived correctly (i.e., accuracy of 0.94). Relatively speaking, however, 372's response
to the accelerator contained many matchable elements-at one time in the response he said
"...electrons corning down this, this tube..."-this correct information was imbedded in a
substantial amount of incorrect material. Perhaps one interesting point is that all the
responses to the technical targets were technical and the response to the architectural target
(i.e., LLNL West gate) was architectural. I will return to this point in the overall
conclusion section below.
The accuracy and reliability for the accelerator relationships are 0.36 and 0.31,
respectively. Our experience is that approximately 1/3 of a target is described in cross
match studies in the laboratory and approximately 1/3 of a random response matches a
given target. Thus, physical relationships appeared not to be sensed beyond what might be
expected by chance. Although there is surprisingly high accuracy for functions and high
reliability for objects in the accelerator response, the weighted averages of accuracy = 0.67
and reliability = 0.63 better reflect the qualitative correspondence with the drawings. The
values for the windmill and West gate targets speak for themselves.
As we will see in the next trial, how to combine or ignore various "interesting" targets near
the intended target is problematical. Although we down-weighted the lesser targets, their
quality responses inflated the combined averages for accuracy and reliability beyond what
might be expected on the bases of the qualitative correspondence alone. In the next
example the reverse was true.
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G~
,~ ~~p as a w ~~.~?
.,. - g E
Figure 1. Partial response and the accelerator target.
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'~~,`~ Qp`N~Pe M!r M F G~~p WORK'
/ S~C~ ~~ ~, I N A F O
~, P
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MTA/t AL[. A~sww/O.
Figure 3. Complete response and the west gate target.
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Second Trial -August 1988
In this trial, the SRI team was completely blind to all details with the exception that we
knew that an event was to take place within the continental USA on 24-25 August 1988.
As before, we were provided the name and Social Security number of an individual who
would be on-site during the event.
Protocol '
On 23 August 1988 an SRI monitor flew to the East coast home of receiver 372 in
preparation for the 24-hour trial that was to begin at 1000 hours on 24 August.
Four sessions were conducted to provide information at approximately 8-hour intervals.
The time and circumstances were as follows:
(1) 1008 August 24. Receiver 372 was asked to describe the location and details of an
event in progress. Details about the pertinent personnel were also requested.
(2) 1500 August 24. Receiver 372 was asked to describe the details and activity at the site
demarked by the presence of the sponsor's on-site representative.
(3) 0910 August 25. The receiver was asked to expand his upon his descriptions from the
previous day.
(4) 1120 August 25. The receiver was asked to consolidate the information from the
previous scans and to provide his concluding remarks.
As before, receiver 372's responses were tape recorded, and he was encouraged to draw
details whenever possible. The monitor was free to seek clarification of specific points
throughout the sessions.
Analysis Technique
The analysis technique was similar to the one described above. The USE, however, was
reconstructed post hoc from the target system and later extended by the response elements.
Accuracy and Reliability Calculations
For this trial there was only a single target, ahigh-power microwave generator that was
encased in a truck trailer in the New Mexico desert. Table 5 shows selected weighting
factors and target and response elements from the USE which contained 72 elements.
These were determined post hac by the sponsor and rne.
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Selected Elements from the USE for the Microwave Generator
V4 26 May 1995
Elements
S2k
Tk
Rk
Functions (1.0)
Hightower microwave production
5
1
0.8
Destructive testing of electronics
2
1
1
Ground focal area
1
0
1
Testin a conce t~iebu in
1
0.3
1
Relationship .75)
Source enclosed in a trailer
5
1
0.7
Energy exit enclosure
3
1
1
Large, semicircular shape with block
1
0
1
Horn-sha eat end of 4_6 cm i e
1
1
0.8
O~j'ects (0~5)
Microwave generator (tubular 3 m)
5
1
0.7
Incoherent wave front
3
0.1
1
Buried sensors
1
0
1
Flat desert
0.5
1
1
Results
Table 6 shows the accuracy and reliability computed from all 72 elements in the USE. The
calculations are shown for the element grouping for the microwave device target.
Accuracy and Reliability for High Technology Trial 2
Target Type
Accuracy
Reliability
Microwave Generator
Functions
0.88
0.80
Relationships
0.69
0.64
Objects
0.82
0.63
Total
0.80
0.69
Feedback
One month after the trial, Receiver 372 was taken to New Mexico and allowed to view the
device
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Discussion
We notice that the accuracy and reliability for Functions and Objects are reasonably
consistent with those shown for the accelerator target. The increase in the totals is a direct
result of the doubling of the values for the physical relationships. At this time I cannot
account for this increase. Even with all the caveats of post hoc analysis, probably biased
sponsors and researcher, and consistency of target types between the two trials, the
accuracy and reliability values are remarkably consistent over a duration of one year. The
increased reliability from 0.63 to 0.80 indicates a reduction of "noise" or incorrect
information in the AC response. This is confirmed qualitatively by the increased visual
correspondence between target and response.
Samples of Visual Correspondence
Figures 4 and 5 show representative samples of the response to illustrate the qualitative
correspondence to the microwave generator and its details. In this case receiver 372
correctly assessed the function of the target and correctly identified the beam divergence
angle of 30 degrees. A reliability of 0.8 for functions also means that the response
contained 20% incorrect material. In Figure 5, had 372 illustrated his "wave guide"
drawing in units of inches rather than centimeters, he would have been exactly correct.
While some specifics are incorrect, this response, alone, could have guided a skilled
analyst to the correct conclusion that the target was a microwave generator device.
General Discussions and Conclusions
One main property that distinguishes these two targets is that they both represent large
changes of energy in a very short period of time. Concomitantly, they represent large
changes of thermodynamic entropy as well. These are not two isolated cases. In our
database dating from 1972, we have 12-15 similar examples. While some are better than
others, we have no cases of a complete miss on such targets. This laboratory anecdote
coupled with the quantitative, albeit post hac, analysis of these trials were major
contributing factors in the inspiration for our Shannon entropy experiments (May,
Spottiswood, and James, 1994) that were designed specifically to test if AC quality is
enhanced with large entropy changes in the target.
It may be a significant leap of faith to imply that changes in thermodynamic entropy are in
some way equivalent to changes in Shannon entropy; however, such a relationship has
been shown to exist in the foundations of entropy theory (Maxwell's Demon, Entropy,
Information, Computing, 1990).
The two trials in this paper were actually accompanied by a third in 1990. The target was
an underground explosion; however, our contract ended before we were able to conduct
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our fuzzy set analysis. We were told by the sponsors that they felt that the qualitative
correspondence was as good as the first two trials.
When we were providing experiential feedback far receiver 372 in the microwave trial we
drove past a solar power collection research facility. It was operating and presented a
spectacular display of sparks and bright flashes of light. The solar collector is characterized
by an array of mirrors that focus the sun's energy on the top of a tower. As it so
happened, this facility was approximately three kilometers from the microwave device
testing area.
I mention this feedback experience because receiver 372's first impression was "ground
focal area specifically laid out for `catching' something evenly." Figure 6 shows 372's
sketch and a photograph of the facility. Some of his response elements throughout the
second trial were overlaid with mirrors and collection devices. What was particularly
interesting, however, was the double lines in Figure 6 and the accompanying words from
the transcription, "...getting an impression of a, like asemi-circle that's open over here and
there's some kind of a square block or something standing over here. This is really large.
I feel like its kinda laid out on the ground in some way." Receiver 372 recognizes later in
the session that there is a problem with his first large football size impression. He remarks
in the transcript: "Actually this is totally separate. I'll draw a line between the two." This
line is shown in Figure 6.
At least for his first impression, receiver 372 was able to parse his internal experiences
between target related and target unrelated elements. He was not completely successful at
this task in that elements of the mirrors permeate the response. Figure 7 shows an example
of this mixing. We are, however, obligated to keep these elements as part of the response,
and the resulting reliability is decreased. This again raises questions about target
definitions and the degree to which the feedback contributes to the response.
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~lA~c ~,c~~rr'
~Nx~rA~'(Z.
l~
~ ~ ~asrn~~~?
,~~ ~oR~ F ~ G~
I X ~ ~~ ~ ~rC fad
~ f1'.E~.TS,
i x~
~' ~
.[
.";---
Figure 4. Partial response to the microwave device.
R""
f~Et '~ I-
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? SPtcc Fr e,,~, G,~ i D OcTr' ISaR. "p~7~y~.,1~ ~?
SONF711-t~~~ ~;
? ?aeK~ rJn+~ xa~+J
o~ c~~cu=~~s.
Figure 6. Response to the solar collection facility.
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~~,'-x -~
P~K a
CaJ~+~ M r Rr2o rz~"u~ ~ ~~ Go ~ ~ ~.
o~ -ray ~ ~v rr~~ . B ~-- r-~sr~~
? ~K-~ GSA ~i~ -rfl S~'~A ~AT'~ 'C'D /Q
~ o~rc~'1 }lA c,V~
Figure 7. Examples of mirrors in the response to the microwave generator.
21
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 Approved For Release 2000/08/10 :CIA-RDP96-007918000200260001-8
AC Technical Trials V4 26 May 1995
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