PROJECT EVALUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00791R000200190072-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 19, 2000
• Sequence Number: 72
• Publication Date: June 6, 1995
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory
330 Cowper Street, Suite 200, Palo Alto, CA 94301
Voice: 415.327.2007 -Fax: [phone]
~~~
An Employee-Owned Company e-mail: [e-mail]
Memorandum
Date: 6 June 1995
To:
From: Edwin C. May, P. J"Re: Project Evaluation
I welcome the opportunity for an in-depth, comprehensive, and fair evaluation of the
project. In anticipation of such a review, I have been examining the issues for years from
the perspective of how I would approach the task incorporating what I have learned from
the previous extensive evaluations.
In this memorandum, I will describe an efficient, rapid, and comprehensive program
review that specifies questions to be answered, evaluation criteria, analysis methodology,
and decision thresholds for the continuation of the program.
General Approach
One difficulty with all the previous reviews was that the evaluation questions were not
clearly delineated. Typically they were amalgams of sometimes conflicting issues that
include the existence of valid phenomena, external threats, and actual or perceived
application potential. Each of the domains imply different evaluation methodologies and
have vastly different criteria to assess their validity. Within each there may be additional
questions that require different and specific evaluation criteria. For example, the criterion
to validate the existence of anomalous cognition (i.e., the acquisition, by mental means
alone, of information that is secured by distance, time, or shielding) is considerably
different from that to validate the existence of anomalous perturbation (i.e., the influence,
by mental means alone, of physically isolated and secured matter). In the application
domain, the hit-rate criterion for being useful in one arena such as finding hidden or lost
objects might be an order of magnitude lower than is required by those who request
architectural-level descriptions of remote locations. In addition, these criteria are
relatively independent of the quality of the anomalous cognition and generally can only be
specified by the product recipient.
Figure 1 shows a schematic representation of the evaluation problem. The evaluation
must proceed within the context of the sponsoring agency, in this case from the
intelligence perspective. A detailed discussion on the points in Figure 1 follow the
schematic.
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Congressional
Tasking
Information (AC)
Applications
Tip Offs
Access
Resource Allocation
Last Resort
Evidence
Applications
Evidence
Anomalous
Cognition
Customer 1 SRI Intl.
Customer 2 SAIC-
Customer 3 Other Centers
Micro-AP
Interaction (AP)
Potential Applications
Electronic CM
Mechanical CM
Remote Switch
Remote Behavior
Evidence
Physical
Evidence
Biological
SRI Intl. SRI Intl.
SAIC SAIL
Other Centers Other Centers
Figure 1. Evaluation Domain
All anomalous mental phenomena can identified as belonging to two categories:
? Information Acquisition. Traditional names for these phenomena include ESP,
telepathy, clairvoyance, and precognition. We have adopted the term anomalous
cognition (AC) because it does not imply a mechanism and is descriptive of the
observables.
? Physical Interaction. Traditional names for these phenomena include, psychokinesis
(PK), materialization and dematerialization, healing, and teleportation. We use the
term anomalous perturbation (AP).
For research and evaluation, these negative definitions pose a serious problem. That is,
AC and AP are what happens when nothing else should. For anomalous cognition, it is
relatively straight forward to secure targeted information in an application environment or
laboratory experiment from inadvertent leakage to a receiver (i.e., subject, remote viewer,
etc.); however, for AP it is very expensive and nearly impossible.
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Top-Down Decision
About Applications.
Given that a government-sponsored program in anomalous mental phenomena has existed
for 20 years, the overriding consideration to continue to include such an activity within
the intelligence community must rest primarily upon applications. That is, we must:
? At least show prima facie evidence for successful applications in the historical
archive, or
? Given that anomalous mental phenomena can be shown to exist, demonstrate that
either technically and/or administratively, previous attempts to apply anomalous
mental phenomena have been misguided.
If we are unable to show that one or both of these conditions are true, then I would
recommend that the intelligence community abandon any further research or
applications.
About Research
The existence of anomalous mental phenomena cannot be statistically determined from
the results of a single laboratory. The requirements for a replication of a statistical
phenomenon and the methods for the analysis of cross-laboratory results are well
developed. The established criteria set by meta-analysis, have been met by AC across
laboratories and within the government sponsored program.
From the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory's perspective, minimal standards have not been
met to claim that large-scale anomalous perturbation exists. Micro-AP (i.e., statistical
effects on the output of physical devices such as random number generators) can be
interpreted as a manifestation of AC-see the dashed line in Figure 1.
Anomalous perturbation on biological targets is still in question. The research in the
Former Soviet Union (FSU) strongly suggests that bio-AP has been successful both on
large-scale systems (i.e., the aggression behavior of laboratory animals) and on statistical
systems (i.e., brain wave patterns of humans). We have sponsored two studies in the US
that support the FSU findings.
Recommend Approach
Current Tasking
In my view, the current approach is unlikely able to answer the primary question: should
the intelligence community continue supporting anomalous mental phenomena activity.
The reason is, to my knowledge, applications are not being addressed. In addition, by
just examining the contractor's archive, we are unable to make a valid statistical
assessment with regard to existence of the phenomena. The most that can be learned is an
assessment of the quality of the scientific methodology. But since FY 1986, the
government has established an on-going Scientific Oversight Committee whose charter
was, in part, to assure the sponsors that the best possible science was being used. Thus,
by any measure, the high quality of the research has already been established. If the
published literature beyond the government sponsored research is considered, then the
Regardless of existence issues, anomalous mental phenomena might be of intelligence interest if foreign
powers are pursuing the area. Foreign assessment will not be discussed further in this memorandum.
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case for the existence of some anomalous mental phenomena has already been establish
according to generally accepted criteria.
A Different Direction
To satisfy the Congressional directive and to determine whether the intelligence
community should support the activity, let us conduct a two-day meeting in late June for
the Blue Ribbon Panel. The first day should be devoted to the assessment of
applications. Such a meeting would be classified at an appropriate level and include a
number of customers-both satisfied and not, current and selected previous government
officials who are/were responsible for the applications, the program's research director
(when appropriate), and selected current/past receivers.
The objective of this meeting is assess the prima facie application evidence first with
regard to its utility and second to determine in which domains it has or has not been
effective. In addition, the Blue Ribbon Panel may want to assess the management and
infrastructure of the application activity.
The second day's unclassified meeting should include selected members of the
contractor's Scientific Oversight Committee, other respected members of the scientific
community, responsible representatives from the scientific skeptics, representatives from
the open research community, and the program's research director.
The agenda for both days should include:
? Establishing acceptance criteria for applications and adopting the standard ones for
research.
? Reviewing previous program evaluations, assessing the published meta-analyses, and
examining current research efforts.
? Determining if the acceptance criteria have been met in their respective domains.
If the overall program cannot meet these standards, then the sponsor should recommend
to Congress to close the activity.
If, however, these criteria are met, then the sponsor should request sufficient funds to
adequately continue the applications and research.
The Blue Ribbon Panel's findings and the minutes of the two-day conference should
easily satisfy the Congressional directive.
I am confident that with adequate preparation, this two-day meeting is capable of
resolving the question of further participation by the intelligence community.
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