PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF SRI/SAIC ANOMALOUS MENTAL PHENOMENA PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00789R003200290001-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 10, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 29, 1995
• Content Type: HW

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Preliminary Evaluation of SRIJSAIC Anomalous Mental Phenomena
Program
Ray Hyman
August 29, 1995
For twenty-five years I have been in touch with the literature of
psychical research, and have had acquaintance with numerous
~~researchers yI have also spent a good marry hours (though far
fewer than I ought to have spent) in wirnessing (or trying to
witness) phenomenrx Yet t am theoretically no ~'further~ than I
was at the beginning; and I confess that at times I have been
tempted to believe that the Creator has eternally intended this
department of nature to remain ba in to prompt our curiosities
and hopes and suspicions all in equal measure, so that, although
ghosts and clairvoyances, and raps and messages from spirits, are
ahvays seeming to exist and can never be fully explained away,
they also can never be susceptible of full corroboration.
The peculiarity of the case is just that there are so many
sources of passible deception inmost of the observations that the
whole lot of them ~ be worthless, and yet that in comparatively
few case can aught more fatal than this vague general possib!lity
of error be pleaded against the record Science meamvhile needs
something more than bare possibilities !o build upon; so your
genuinely scientific inquirer I don 't mean your Ignoramus
~~seientist~~' has to remain unsatisfied
--William tames, 1909.
Jessica. U'tts and I have each been given the task to evaluate the results ofthe research
program on anomalous mental phenomena carried out at SRI and SAIC from 1973 tFuough 1992.
Because of the limited time allotted for this task, we have focussed on the reports of the work
selected to best convey the outcome of this program. However, even this selective focus places
severe constraints on the adequacy,of our evaluations. A fully comprehensive evaluation of the
program would require a minimum of several months and would include visits to the sites of the
experiments as well as some reanalysis of the raw data. Consequently, my present assessment
should be considered the tentative outcome of a quick first pass.
We were asked to assess hove well the results meet scientific standards as well as how well
the alleged anomalous mental phenomena can be harnessed for intelligence gathering. On the basis
of our conclusions we were further requested to recommend whether investigations into this
subject should continue and, if so, in what manner.
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The Scientific Status of the Program
In their final report (1994) the investigators conclude that they have clearly demonstrated
anomalous cognition? but not anomalous perturbation. According to common scientific standards,
I would judge such a conclusion as premature. If, for example, a scientist announces the discovery
of a new element, the claim is not recognized until the element's existence has been carefully
documented in two or more independent laboratories. The reason for such caution is obvious. The
history of science contains many examples of discoveries that subsequently could not be replicated
and eventually had to be attributed to some artefact--known or unknown. Certainly, the claim that
anomalous cognition exists is much more revolutionary in its consequences than the claim that a
new element has been observed. So, at the very least, we would want to see the claim of
anomalous cognition supported by independent replications in other laboratories. We do not have
anything like this at this time. Possibly, this could be an unfortunate consequence of the results
having been classified as secret until very recently.
My first scan through the reports impressed me with the apparent consistency with which
the best percipients or subjects produced significant evidence for anomalous cognition. I was also
impressed, in many instances, with the apparent sophistication in methodology and data analysis.
However, as was my experience in dealing with the ganzfeld database, further examination began
to raise questions and doubts. I also began noticing inconsistencies, incompleteness of
documentation, and other problematic signs. Again, I suspect that some of these drawbacks can
be attributed to the secret auspices under which the research was conducted.
I was unimpressed by the results ofineta-analysis on the psychoenergetic research
conducted at Sl2I International from 1973-1988. Indeed, this particular report illustrates the
drawbacks of relying on meta-analysis to draw conclusions. The meta-analysis is based on a total
of 25, 449 trials. The probability of the observed hit rate for this total to have occurred by chance
is vanishingly small. Obviously, the departure from chance expectation is real. The authors of this
report conclude that, ~~Ylsing accepted criteria set forth in the standard behavioral sciences, we
conclude that this constitutes convincing, if not conclusive, evidence for the existence of
psychoenergetic fiinctioning.n The "accepted criteria" that they mention refer to rejecting the null
hypothesis; these same criteria are silent on the reasons for the departure from this hypothesis.
The problem here is that plausible, mundane alternative explanations exist for this
departure from the null hypothesis. The vast majority-of these trials were collected under the
original protocol developed by Tazg and Puthoff. In this protocol, a subject would be closeted
with an experimenter at SRI. A target team would visit a randomly selected site within ahalf--hour
drive of SRI. While the target team was at the site, the subject would describe his/her impressions
for 15 to 30 minutes. When the target team returned to SRI, all the participants, including the
subject, would visit the site and discuss the correspondences between the target and the subject's
impressions. On a second day, the same subject would ga through a sirnilar procedure. An
e~zperimental series typically consisted of nine such trials with a given subject. At the conclusion
of the series, the transcripts of the subjects' impressions were given to a judge. The judge visited
the sites and, at each site, ranked the nine impressions from 1 to 9 in order of how well he/she
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thought they described the site. If the average ranking was significantly better than that expected
by chance, the outcome was declared to be evidence for anomalous cognition.
This protocol has several problems. They alI derive from the fact that each successive trial
is not independent ofthe preceding ones. The first problem is that the rank statistic that Targ and
Puthoff originally used assumed that the trials were independent. The consequence was that the
statistical outcomes exaggerated tine degree of significance actually present. More serious
problems arose when David Marks discovered that the transcripts given to the judge sometimes
contained clues that were sufficient for the judge to correctly match impressions against target site
without assuming anomalous cognition. Even if such clues could be edited out of the transcripts, I
pointed out that a fatal #law still existed.
Rather than to go into technical detail, Z will give one illustration how leakage can occur
with this protocol. Assume that the target on the first Say was the Hoover Tower on the Stanford
campus. Because the subject has been given feedback immediately after the first session, he/she
may reasonably avoid describing anything that resembles the Hoover Tower during the second
session. Supposed that the target for the second day was the Palo Alto train station. On the third
day, we can assume that the subject will not describe anything that closely resembles either the
Hoover Tower or the train. station. The impression for the third day, then, might be judged as
being closer to the target for the third day than to either of the first two targets simply because it
clearly does not correspond to either of the targets for the first day. This problem is compounded
as the trials progress through the entire series.
Thus, a skeptic can easily imagine non-paranormal reasons why the judge might
consistently match impressions against target sites significantly better than chance. In this case,
the possible artefact is obvious. In much scientifiic research, biases and artefacts can be much more
subtle and'elusive. New protocols, instrumentation, methodologies, and analytic techniques
require long periods of debugging. Often a new field of inquiry might proceed for years before it
is discovered that hidden flaws have biased the outcomes. This is why independem replications
and consistent and lawful outcomes across a variety of conditions are so crucial in the sciences.
The problem I have with the outcomes from the present program is that we are dealing
with novel protocols and methodologies which have not had time to be sufficiently debugged and
have not been independently replicated. In addition, the results that have been obtained so far
suggest that anomalous cognition still comes and goes in mysterious ways. Consistency both
within the program and with other findings in parapsychology is not impressive.
I could go into simular detail for each of the other reports. Instead, I will deal with them as
a unit. The reason is that these rF;tnain;ng reports deal with experiments that were clearly
conducted with a better protocol. If alternative explanations exist to account for the results of
these latter experiments, they are not as obvious as the explanations for the earlier remote viewing
experiments. Although no obvious alternative explanations come to mind, warning signs abound.
Of the 10 independent experiments conducted at SAIC, several are described as pilot attempts.
Some fail to replicate previous experiments in the program. For example, the first attempt to
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replicate the Chinese photon production experiment succeeded. However, a second, more careful
attempt at replication failed. The investigators conclude that the original Chinese effect was an
artifact. What will happen if the experimenters try to replicate each of the other "successful~~
experiments with more elaborately controlled designs?
We know from the descriptions in the reports that some of the experimerns provided
possibilities for sensory leakage and other biases. The investigators either discount these
possibilities or believe they adequately compensated for them. Not enough documentation exists
in the reports to be sure that all necessary controls were consistently in place. In some of the
experiments, for example, the experienced subjects operated from their own homes, hundreds of
miles from the laboratory and the principal investigator. These experienced subjects presumably
know the procedures, the target pool, the laboratory personnel and the judge.
The judge raises another problem. The investigators do not try to explain adequately why
the judging procedure in the ganzfeld procedure succeeds best when the subject does the judging
while it apparently succeeds best in the remote viewing situation when someone other than the
subject does the judging. Apparently only one or two judges consistently give good results. From
what Ed May told us, I gather they typically use one judge aid this judge is the same one across
several experimems. Even if we assume the Judge is honest, conscientious and otherwise free from
suspicion, the scientific community will not readily accept conclusions that depend upon the use
of particular individual. This is like the experimenter effect. Many parapsychologists argue that
only certain experimenters are capable of obtaining evidence of anomalous cognition. If tlvs is
true, parapsychology faces serious obstacles in its attempts to gain scientific recognition.
Scientific credibility depends critically on the ability of any conscientious observer to obtain a
given outcome.
Fro.rn. its inception in the late 1800s, parapsychology has been plagued by such pzc-blems
as non-replicability, non-cumlativeness, lack of robustness, and inability to specify boundary
conditions. The decline effect, which was the subject of one of the experiments in the cun~ent
program, is a case in point. When Rhine announced the discovery of this effect it was presented as
a strong argument far the reality of ESP. Rhine argued that, he had discovered the decline effect in
experiments whose investigators had not been looking for it. Rhine believed that the decline effect
also explained why so many ESP experiments yielded overall results consistent with chaace.
Because of the decline effect the first half of many experiments typically showed an excess of
hitting above chance. The second half, on the other hand, would show hitting below change. The
two halves, when pooled over the entire experiment would cancel each other out and yield an
overall result that seemed to be due to chance.
As the present investigators point out, the decline effect can show itself in multitudinous
ways. Investigators have reported decline effects within a run, within a series, within a collection
of studies, and even across subjects. When decline effects are found in a body of data, the
parapsychologists do not hesitate to declare this evidence for anomalous cognition. However,
when decline effects are not found, investigators, including the present ones, are still willing to
assert the existence of anomalous cognition if other departures from a chance baseline can be
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found. The problem this raises is that we have no way of specifying conditions under which psi
will not be found. Just about any departure from a statistical model can be evidence for psi. We
have no way of telling when psi is not present.
I will here briefly mention other signs of potential inconsistencies. The central claim for the
autoganzfeld experiments is that, as Honorton allegedly predicted, evidence for anomalous
cognition was obtained for dynamic targets and not for static targets. In their first replication
attempt, the present experiments obtained evidence for anomalous cognition on]y with the static
targets and not with the dynamic tazgets. As always, they can generate aquasi-plausible ~'
explanation. They do this in terms of bandwidth. Although, the second experiment to test this idea
does apparently support their conjecture, the results are not altogether compelling and -more needs
to be done. Honorton and his colleagues claim that the most consistent personality correlate of
anomalous cognition is extroversion. Yet, the major replication of I~onorton's work, which was
subcontracted to the present project, shows the introverts, if anything, doing somewhat better.
I can ga on and list other inconsistencies and possible problems. However, Iwill -stag at
this point so that I can get this draft into the mail. The quotation from William lames at the
beginning ofthis report captures my feelings about flee scientific status of the present project.
My advice is that, if the project is continued, that serious effort be made to contract with a
number of independent parapsychological laboratories as well as some non-parapsychological,
neutral investigators to replicate the key findings from the present project. The data from the
present project should be sufficient, given the claims being made for it, to allow us to specify the
appropriate conditions, the effect size, and the number of cases necessary to get a significant
effect across different laboratories given that anomalous cognition exists. Presumably, the labs
could either use the best subjects from the SAIC experiments or use a similar screening device to
find those individuals who belong the one percent of the population who supposedly have AC
abilities.
I have not discussed potential utility of remote viewing. Tf we accept the conclusions made
by the investigators on the current project, the potential for utility is bleak. Although they accept
the reality of anomalous cognition, they state or imply, in several places, that operational
applications of anomalous cognition do not Iook very promising.
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