PROJECT STAR GATE RESEARCH AND PEER REVIEW PLAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00789R002700020001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 79
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 1, 1994
• Content Type: RP

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SECRET PRG-TH-1068-SL
DEFENSE
INTELLIGENCE
AGENCY
PROJECT STAR GATE
FiESEAACH AIlD PEER REVIEW PLAII (U)
maY 1994
SECRET
LIMDIS
STFIR GATE
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PROJECT STAR GATE
RESEARCH AND PEER REVIEW PLAN (U)
This document was prepared by the
Technology Assessment and Support Activity
Office for Ground Forces
Directorate for Military Assessments
National Military Intelligence Production Center
Defense Intelligence Agency
Date of Publication
May 1994
REPRODUCTION REQUIRES
APPROVAL OF ORIGINATOR WARNING NOTICE-INTELLIGENCE
OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY SOURCES OR METHODS INVOLVED
LIMITED DISSEMINATION
FUTHER DISSEMINATION
ONLY AS DIRECTED BY DIA/PAG CLASSIFIED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES
OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY DECLASSIFY ON OADR
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OUTLINE
III. SIGNIFICANCE OF EFFORT ........................ 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................
I. INTRODUCTION ..................................
II. PLAN OBJECTIVES ...............................
V. BASIC RESEARCH PLAN FOR ANOMALOUS COGNITION... 6
VI. BASIC RESEARCH PLAN FOR ANOMALOUS PERTURBATION. 14
VII. APPLIED RESEARCH PLAN FOR ANOMALOUS COGNITION.. 17
IV. PLAN OVERVIEW .................................
SG1 B
X. PROJECT OVERSIGHT METHODOLOGY .................. 25
XI. DEVELOPMENT OF EVALUATION CRITERIA ............. 26
XII. BUDGET AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS (FYs 95-99)... 27
IX. POTENTIAL RESEARCH RETURN ......................
APPENDICES
A. CONGRESSIONALLY-DIRECTED ACTION, DEFENSE
AUTHORIZATION CONFERENCE ...................... A-1
B. TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ................... B-1
C. POTENTIAL RESEARCH SUPPORT FACILITIES .......... C-1
D. RESOURCE LITERATURE ........................... D-1
E. CURRENT CONTRACTOR SCIENTIFIC OVERSIGHT
COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP .......................... E-1
F. CURRENT CONTRACTOR INSTITUTIONAL
REVIEW BOARD ................................. F-1
G. ACADEMIC STUDIES REGARDING THE SCIENTIFIC
VALIDITY OF AMP .............................. G-1
H. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ENHANCED HUMAN
PERFORMANCE PROGRAM .......................... H-1
I. IN-HOUSE STAFFING REQUIREMENTS ............... I-1
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(U) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) In compliance with the congressional
conferees' request (Appendix A), DIA proposes to develop a multi-
year research and development program, subject to rigorous
scientific and technical oversight, to demonstrate the scientific
validity of.the STAR GATE program, and that results of military
and intelligence value can be obtained in a cost-effective manner
using anomalous mental phenomena (AMP).
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) This proposed program, if successfully
implemented, will:
- Identify the underlying mechanisms of AMP.
- Establish the limits of operational usefulness of
- Determine the degree to which foreign activities in
AMP represents a threat to national security.
- Lead to the development of countermeasures to
neutralize this threat.
- Use research findings to improve operational
activities.
- Develop data fusion criteria to integrate AMP results
with other intelligence sources.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Due to the diversity of the STAR GATE
mission/objectives, both external resources and in-house
expertise are required. Since this Activity possesses no in-
house R&D capability, an absolute need for external R&D support
is required to meet Congressional concerns which are addressed in
this program plan. A balance will be maintained between external
and in-house activities, and every effort will be made to
integrate and link these activities where appropriate. The
external aspect permits a wide range of expertise covering many
disciplines to be focused on this area; this also has the benefit
of ensuring peer group review and of facilitating a variety of
scientific interactions. In-house personnel with a wide-range of
expertise in this phenemenology will need to be retained to make
this proposed plan work.
(S/NF) In order to review the major tenets of the draft
program plan, the Defense Intelligence Agency will convene a
panel of appropriate scientists to provide recommendations on the
plan and the research it achieves. Based on the panel's
recommendations, the Defense Intelligence Agency will then submit
a budget line item to fund those approved objectives.
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(C) An annual report will document the current
operational, technical and administrative status of the program.
I. (U) INTRODUCTION:
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) This program plan was developed in
response to a Defense Authorization Conference, Congressionally
Directed Action (CDA) to prepare a long-term systematic and
comprehensive research and peer review plan in order to
investigate anomalous mental phenomena (AMP), and to apply
program research results to potential operational activities.
This plan also describes key in-house activities along with an
appropriately integrated basic and applied external research
support effort.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Specifically, this program plan
represents DIA's view on how best to proceed with both in-house
activities and external research support for the period of FY95
through FY99. Research findings, both domestic and foreign, and
results from operational activities may lead to updates of this
plan in order to reflect improved phenomena understanding and to
pursue follow-on research and/or application directions.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) A underlying and fundamental premise
governing the implementation of this program plan is that a well-
integrated interdisciplinary approach is considered to be the
most appropriate strategy for conducting research in this diverse
field. Consequently, this plan includes a wide variety of
research topics which are based on recent findings from leading-
edge pursuits in other disciplines that are suspected of being
germane for STAR GATE. Other topics are derived from a review of
worldwide research, consultations with leading area experts, and
on insights gained from previous research and application
activities associated with the STAR GATE program.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) This program plan also allows for the
STAR GATE program to show results that are cost effective and
will at the same time satisfy reasonable program performance
criteria. The implementation of this program plan will preclude
the reoccurrence of the yearly cyclical activity of project
start-up, limited progress, followed by anticipated project shut-
down which previously inhibited program activity.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) In sum, the implementation of this
research and peer review plan will allow DIA to successfully
accomplish identified R&D activities which, in-turn, will enhance
the capability of STAR GATE personnel to engage in operational
activities and to assess the work done by potential adversaries,
thereby, reducing the risk potential for a technological
surprise.
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(U) Terminology and definitions are discussed at
Appendix B.
II. (U) PLAN OBJECTIVES:
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) The objective of this follow-on research
and peer review plan is to further develop phenomena
understanding and/or validation, in applications understanding,
and in operational feasibility evaluation. This continued work
will have a direct bearing on DIA's ability to both assess the
significance of foreign research and to perform a systematic
review of potential applications regarding this phenomena.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Accomplishment of the various activities
identified in this plan will further enhance threat assessment of
foreign achievements in this area, and will help achieve the
potential for U.S. military/intelligence applications on select
tasks as a supplement to HUMINT operations.
(U) It is anticipated that this plan will assist decision
makers in their review and consideration of future directions for
this field, and that this plan can begin formal implementation
starting in FY95.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) In compliance with the Congressional
conferees' request, DIA recommends that a period of six to nine
months be set aside at the beginning of this new program for the
purpose of identifying the most promising and cost-effective
experiments to be conducted under the program to meet the overall
research objectives outlined below. It is further suggested that
a series of small working groups consisting of scientific experts
from a variety of pertinent disciplines meet during this time
period to accomplish this end.
III. (U) SIGNIFICANCE OF EFFORT:
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) STAR GATE is a dynamic approach for
pursuing the largely unexplored area of human consciousness and
subconsciousness interaction. Its scope is comprehensive; a wide
range of phenomenological issues are examined that include
psychological, physiological/neurophysiological, physics and
other leading-edge scientific areas. Although broad in scope,
STAR GATE is well grounded due to its solid independent
scientific review base. STAR GATE is based on a dynamic style in
all its endeavors, especially in its pursuit of on-going foreign
activities in this area.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) One of the tasks previously levied on DIA
by the FY91 Defense Authorization Act was to develop a long-range
comprehensive plan for investigating parapsychological phenomena.
This task was one of several objectives included in a new program
for this phenomenological area that identified DIA as executive
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agent. Moreover the FY91 Defense Authorization Act authorized
for DIA a funding level of $2 million for DIA in order to
initiate this new program. As a result, a balanced and
integrated plan to include operations, foreign assessment, and
research and development was implemented . In addition, a new
DIA limited dissemination (LIMDIS) program, codeword STAR GATE,
was established in order to accomplish the objectives that were
set forth in this plan.
SG1 B
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) The external research support conducted
under monies appropriated to date comes to a close in the June
1994 time-frame. The impact of this is that if research
activities utilizing human subjects are interrupted, it has
generally been necessary to begin again instead of later resuming
activities from the point of termination. Consequently, it is
important for the STAR GATE program to remain stable. Research
involving human use differs considerably from that involving
physical systems. For example, data from human subjects cannot
be collected nor analyzed as rapidly, in that additional
empirical data is often required to reach analytical conclusions.
This type of data analysis utilizing human subjects can only be
achieved with an in-place, uninterrupted, multi-year research and
development program. Therefore, should it be decided to go
forward with this program, it should be done in a timely fashion.
(S/NF) The funding allocation for external research
received by STAR GATE in FY91 and continued through FY 1993
permitted several important research areas to be initiated and
continued. It is anticipated that results of this research will
assist in clarifying some of the possible future research
directions; consequently, not all long-range research
possibilities can identified in this plan. However, most all of
the major investigation areas can be addressed, and many of the
specifics can be identified with reasonable confidence.
Figure 1 presents an overview of overall research objectives for
both Anomalous Cognition (AC) and Anomalous Perturbation (AP)
which will be considered for inclusion in this program.
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(S/NF) Previous basic research activities from FY91
through FY93 focused on the following; (1) validating findings
from previous magnetoencephalograph (MEG) research and initiating
new work with a variety of conditions and individuals; (2)
performing a variety of anomalous cognition (AC) experiments to
determine potential correlations (e.g., target type,
environmental factors); (3) developing various theoretical
constructs that might be testable and that could help explain the
phenomena; (4) examining effects of altered states on data
quality; (5) initiating review of and research into the
energetics area; and (6) examining various application
possibilities (e.g., communication, search).
(U) Results from previous basic and applied research
activity have been factored into this research and development
plan and provide the basis upon which further R&D efforts will be
built.
IV. (U) PLAN OVERVIEW:
A. (U) BASIC RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) The objective of basic research is to
understand the fundamental, underlying mechanisms for AMP. To
achieve this objective in an efficient way, basic research of the
detection mechanism should begin in a conservative direction.
That is, assume that a putative "sensorial" system exists for AMP
and that it most likely will behave similarly to those common
elements which are known through the five senses. This
conservative approach generalizes to understand the source of AMP
and its propagation mechanisms (Figure 1).
B. (U) APPLIED RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) The objective of applied research is
to improve AMP functioning to its maximum possible limit. To
realize this objective, it is critical to define AMP output
measures that are consistent with either a laboratory setting
and/or an operational environment. The approach should also
reflect scientific conservatism. In investigating any single
variable (e.g., different training methodologies) all other
variables should remain as constant as possible (e.g., use the
same individuals and known good target systems).
C. (U) FOREIGN ASSESSMENT SUPPORT OBJECTIVES
(S/NF) From a research perspective, the objective of
foreign assessment is to determine the degree to which claims
from foreign laboratories can be confirmed in a U.S.-based
setting. In science, replication is critical for understanding.
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I Anomalous Phenomena
(Mental)
Ii Cognition
2.0 Transmission
Central Nervous System
NeuroN'et Models
Autonomlo Responses
Inter-species Ccmmunlcations
Other Animals
1.2 Applied
Other Physiology (Skin)
Pots onaUty(BehavioraV3 etfReporl~-SorVMBT1)
Perceptual Modell
Psychological Models (Mot 'atlon/Emotlon)
Selection (Direct CorrelaUcnal)
Environment-Physiaal (GMF)
Environment-PsycbologI i (Set and Setting)
Environmeht-Physlological (Comfort)
ArtitrcIN
Response Type (Audi oNldeo/Letl Hand)
Redundancy (Multiple Pass/Multlple Detectors)
Communication
Analysis
1.9 Mixed
Internal Noise Source
Training (Macroscoplc/Oparant)
Session Protocols
3.0 Source:
2.1 02210 '
Informational (Entropy/Meaning)
Other Thermodynamlo
Vector/Scalar Potential
2-1 AppllaA
So'undarles
Definitions
Human Sender
Demarcation (Coordinate a/Beaoon)
External Noise Source
Inverse (Se'srch)
2.U MIxe4
Physical Charnoterielios (She/Composition)
'Type (StatlWitarhic)
One-to-'n' (Foroed Choice/Binary
Search)
2.1 Basic
Decision Augmehtatlon Theory
Worm Holes (4-Dlrr enslons)
Vector/Scalar Potential Propagation
Stoc.hastlo Causality
III Perturbation
2.0 Macro 3,0 Mixed
2.1 112210
Pletoe)ectloStrain Gauge
Restive Strain Gauge
Metal (Banding)
Pendulums Jnear(ibrsfBblogical)
Mechanical Systems (Ba11s11ntetferometen)
2.2ApS1I14d
inertial Syitethi
,1.1 Bsila
Atoms
Nuclei (Mossbauer Effect)
Photons
Cells (Algae, Blood)
Bacteria (Mutation-Salmonella)
Quantum Systems (Neution/Photon interference)
Crystal'Structure
Molecular Structure'(IR Spectra of H20)
Theory (Quantum M'easuremeniReno)
Random Number Generators (Eledronlc/Nuclear)
1.2 Applied
Magnetic Domains
1.2 Mlxssi
Electrons
2.1 Applied
l:lving Systems (Fiiirii4rlsThah--Sehnvlorai)
Mloromachines
Figure 1 (U) gR~egspeaarch Overview
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V. (U) BASIC RESEARCH PLAN FOR ANOMALOUS COGNITION:
A. (U) BASIC APPROACH
(S/NF) The link of basic and applied research with
other applications investigations or with research activities is
shown on Figure 2. The top of the chart shows that for any
research or application task, certain conditions must be met
(e.g., a reliable calibrated individual is required; proper
scientific procedures need to be developed, etc.). Once these
basic foundations are laid, then basic/applied research can be
initiated with a reasonable expectation of success and with
assurance that results will not be ambiguous or fail scientific
scrutiny.
(S/NF) This chart also illustrates the difference
between basic and applied research; applied research relates to
various methods for collecting, recording, improving and
analyzing data output, while basic research is aimed at phenomena
understanding. In this chart, the "detector" is the human
brain/mind, the "source" is the target or an aspect of the
target, and "transmission" refers to notions of how information
and/or energy are actually transmitted between source and
detector.
(U) Figure 3 illustrates the interdisciplinary scope
that will be brought to bear on this research problem. Leading-
edge researchers in their various fields can provide clues, if
not make direct contributions, that will assist in phenomena and
applications understanding. Appendix C lists candidate research
support facilities that could be involved in this long-range
effort. Appendix D outlines pertinent research literature
applicable to this field. Final selection will be based on how
well the activities if these institutions will fit into specific
time-lines and priorities to be established in FY95. Figure 4
lists milestones for the anomalous cognition basic research to be
conducted under this plan.
B. (U) RESEARCH DETAILS
1. (U) Source.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Source research will address
those topics that show promise for understanding the
characteristics of the target or target area that may play a role
in anomalous cognition (AC) occurrence and data quality. Aspects
of the target that can be defined by conventional information
theory (involving entropy/information content) will be explored
in-depth. A wide variety of targets with a wide range of
information content, dynamics, or other parameters will be
examined to explore this possible link. If not successful, other
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m Integration
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* 1nalysis
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* Counter oasurea
gPrasAa
Recoivar So1ection
Rocoivo , Tcainiivg
Target Selection
Figure 2 (U) Research Objectives
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9y
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Figure 3 (U) Integration of Scientific Disciplines
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UNCLASSIFIED
ACTIUITY
SOURCE
RESEARCH
(TARGET)
TURNSMISSIUN
RESEARCH
(MECHANISM)
DETECTOR
RESEARCH
(BRAIN)
I NTEGRRTI ON
Statistics, Parallel Processing, Etc.)
Psychological Sciences -
(Psychology, Anthropology, Cognitive, Mental,
Subliminal Perception, Etc.)
Medical (Genetics, Etc.)
FIGURE 4 (U) BASIC RESEARCH MILESTONES - ANOMALOUS COGNITON
UNCLASSIFIED
10
TIME FRAME
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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Analysis
Various Target Attributes
(Size, Form, Content)
Four-Dimensional Calculations
(Relativity Extensions)
Unconventional Waves
(Laboratory) (Long-Range Tests)
Variables (Distance, Shielding, Energy)
Neuroscience (EEG, Memory, Etc.
Environmental Factors
Other Physiology (Electrical, Infrared)
Implications from Medical/Animal Research
Physical Sciences (Physics
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SG1 B
approaches to investigate the targets' innate nature and its
possible link to phenomenon occurrence will be initiated.
Definitive data in this area would also have implications for
defining those targets which have the highest probability of
successful data acquisition in an operational setting, thus
establishing operational tasking parameters.
2. (U) Transmission.
(S/NF) The pursuit of possible transmission
mechanisms for AC phenomena is essentially the most significant
basic research task and also the most difficult to formulate. In
this effort, a theoretical basis will be developed from
extensions of current theory in light of recent advanced physics
formulations. Some of these formulations permit unusual
"information flows" that may, in fact, have relevance for this
phenomenon. Testable models/constructs will be developed and
evaluated. A variety of other possible explanations involving
extensions of gravitation theory, quantum physics or other areas
will be constructed and tested where possible. Some of these
tests may require close cooperation of leading-edge researchers
using equipment in their facility.
(C/NF) Effort in this area will also focus on
integrating diverse aspects of the source, transmission, and
detector categories. For example, it will examine how
"targeting" occurs. Insight will be drawn from in-depth reviews
of various unusual physical effects identified by physical
sciences researches. These include distant particle coupling
(Bell's theorem), ideas from quantum gravity, possible
electrostatic/gravity interactions, unusual quantum physics,
observational theories, vacuum "energy" potential, and a variety
of other concepts.
(S/NF) Perhaps the most promising exploratory
model of all is one based on little-understood aspects of the
fundamental equations for electromagnetic wave propagation
(Maxwell's equations). These equations indicate that forms of
"wave propagation" could also exist that do not have the
conventional electric or magnetic field components (i.e., vector
and scalar waves). These waves would not be blocked by matter
and therefore could be leading candidates for AC propagation or
for certain aspects of AC phenomenon. Research papers SG1B
indicate that ese
waves are consi dered a leading candidate for AC transmissions by
their researchers. Pilot study investigations in this area were
conducted by PAG-TA in FY92 with promising preliminary results.
Future research could couple with other DIA exploratory R&D
efforts in this area currently being explored.
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(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Research on this topic will be
closely integrated with research involving the anomalous
phenomena (AP) aspect, since findings in the AP area would have
direct implications for phenomena transmission mechanisms in
general. Findings from the target (or target source) research
area would also provide insight into possible transmission
mechanisms. For example, different forms of the same target
(e.g., target size, 2D vs 3D, holographic representations) may
show patterns in the AC data that might provide clues regarding
phenomena mechanisms.
3. (U) Detector.
(U) The most important and promising aspect of
understanding the nature of the AC detection system in humans is
through modern advances of the neuroscience. Earlier
neurophysiological results obtained from magnetoencephalograph
(MEG) measurements begun in FY92 will be validated and expanded.
This earlier work indicated MEG correlations between visual
evoked responses areas of the brain may exist, and that remote
stimuli might also be detectable in MEG data. Some of the
specific investigations will examine a variety of near and far-
field situations, other sensory modes and different types of
individuals in order to search for potential variables. It might
be possible, with advanced MEG instrumentation, to actually
locate the exact brain areas involved in AC phenomena occurrence.
Future research in this area could couple with research currently
being explored at the National Laboratory.
(U) Other physical/psychophysical aspects of the
central nervous system (CNS) will also be explored to look for
possible correlates. This would include galvanic skin responses
(GSR) or other parameters.
(U) Related to this overall area are several
investigations that relate to possible environmental interactions
with the brain that could affect AC data. This would include
possible geomagnetic or electromagnetic influences.
(S/NF) A spin-off from findings in this basic
research area could be for unique communication applications.
MEG correlates might exist between remotely located people. If
so, the possibility of transmission of remote messages (via a
type of code) might be possible. Since AC phenomenon is not
degraded by distance or shielding, the potential of transmitting
basic "messages" to individuals in submarines would exist.
Preliminary exploration of this application by PAG-TA has yielded
promising results.
(S/NF) Another potential spin-off benefit from
detector research in this program is that new insights into brain
memory or parallel processing might be achieved. This could lead
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to new directions in advanced compute developments involving
neural networks. For example, recent indicates that
"wave-like" brain activity occurs in addition to usual neuronal
processes. This wave-like phenomenon may have some link to the
"phase shift" observed in MEG data from the previous MEG project.
Further MEG work involving remote stimuli may help clarify such
issues.
4. (U) Integration.
(U) The basic research activities will liberally
avail itself of the existing research communities that specialize
in neuroscience, physics and statistics and the broader
psychological/social sciences. Direct support with a variety of
university departments, national and international, will be
explored. PAG-TA contacts with such national laboratories as Los
Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, Oak Ridge, and have indicated an
interest on their part in supporting the research efforts.
Frequent conferences and data exchanges are anticipated. These
data exchanges will insure that a proper interdisciplinary
approach is maintained, and that findings from other disciplines
will be incorporated in this program where appropriate. This
peer group dialogue will greatly benefit research sponsored
through this plan, new ideas will be generated, and possibly
clues regarding phenomena operation will be easier to identify.
(U) Some specific interdisciplinary examples that
will benefit this program are as follows:
- In 1990 The American Anthropological
Association (AAA) formed a new division, the Society for the
Anthropology of Consciousness (SAC). This division has
established a technical journal to support interdisciplinary,
cross-cultural, experimental, and theoretical approaches to the
study of consciousness. This group may be able to contribute
this program by providing cross-cultural examples. These members
might also assist in the assessment of foreign data in this area.
- The psychophysiology of vision has already
contributed to the earlier program. This plan calls for a
collaborative effort with researcher in an attempt to understand
how the central nervous system process subliminal stimuli. This
should assist in understanding how MEG correlates occur.
- The relationship between mind and body is
currently discussed in the research literature as well as in the
popular press. Researcher at the California Institute for
Transpersonal Psychology (CITP) have been active in investigating
the role of mental attitudes and body chemistry. While there may
not be a direct link with AC, and exchange of techniques and
experimental designs would be helpful.
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- The Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience
contains at least one article of interest in each issue. This
discipline is where most of the cognitive work with the
neuromagnetism is conducted. There is the possibility of joint
investigations with researchers performing MEG investigations at
the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
- Stanford University has been conducting
research on internal mental imagery. The manipulation and
control of this imagery is extremely important in understanding
the source of internal noise during an AC session. A
collaborative effort with Stanford should lead to methods for
noise reduction.
- Neural networks are particularly good at
recognizing subtle patterns in complex data, and are being
applied in the subjective arena of decision making in business.
In order to improve AC analysis, the program will conduct a
collaborative effort with scientists who are active in neural
network research and with selected individuals who have had
success with interpreting highly subjective data.
- Statistics is the heart of AC research in
that most of the results are usually quoted in statistical terms.
Hypothesis testing has traditionally been the primary focus, but
there are other possible approaches that should be explored.
Statistics researchers at Harvard have already expressed interest
in contributing to the research effort.
- A major portion of the effort will be a
search for a AC evoked response in the brain. Sophisticated
processing is required in that magnetic signals from the brain
can not be easily characterized by standard statistical
practices. Several research facilities can contribute.
- Classical statistical thermodynamics may be
the heart of understanding the nature of an AC source of
information. A physical property called entropy may be related
to what is sensed by AC. The program intends to collaborate with
a variety of university physics departments to calculate the
appropriate parameters.
(S/NF) The specific experiments to be conducted in
these research domains will be defined during the first six to
nine months of the program utilizing the recommendations of the
working groups mentioned above subject to approval by the
Scientific Oversight Committee.
VI. (U) BASIC RESEARCH PLAN FOR ANOMALOUS PERTURBATION:
(S/NF) Figure 5 illustrates the basic approach for
investigations "energetics", or anomalous perturbation (AP)
phenomenon. Intelligence reporting indicates that this aspect of
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UNCLRSSIFIED
RCTIVITY
DEVELOP
EURLURTION
CRITERIR
PERFORM
ANOLYSIS
EHRM I NE
TRRGET
SYSTEMS
CONDUCT
URLIDRTION
EXPERIMENTS
PURSUE
HPPLICRTIONS
PERSONNEL
SELECTION
TIME FRAME
1995 1996 1997
Historical Data Base
Various Technical Targets
Laboratory Setting
1998
Advanced Sensors Complex Components
Solicit
Known
Talent
1999
Far-Field Effects (Countermeasures)
Screening/Training (Develop)
Figure 5 (U) Basic Research Milestones - Rnomalous Perturbation
(To Include Biological Systems)
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P hould receive
AM =
attention in this research pan to provent. ical
surprise. Thus, beginning in FY95, acceptance criteria will be
establish with which to judge the historical literature for
potential AP effects. Using those criteria, a detailed review of
the literature will begin in mid FY95 and considering the size of
that data base will continue through FY95. Knowledge gained from
this review may provide insights for the development of new AP
target systems or provide data so that particular experiments can
be replicated. Given the complexity of most AP experiments,
considerable time is needed to plan and conduct them properly.
If the results warrant, then application development may begin as
early as FY96; however the primary task of basic research of AP
is to attempt to validate its existence. Findings from foreign
research will be examined and factored into this activity as
appropriate.
(S/NF) The keys to investigating this area will be in
appropriate personnel selection and, very likely, in proper
selection of the AP test device. Thus, the initial phase of this
effort will involve identification and solicitation of
individuals known or claimed to have such talents. For example,
certain expert martial arts or yoga practitioners might do well
in such experiments due to their strong mental conditioning and
ability for intense mental focus. After locating such
individuals, various instruments, such as microcomputer devices,
sensitive electronic/sensor devices, or other unique or sensitive
equipment would be used as targets in AP experiments.
(S/NF) Some of the unique sensor candidates include
devices that are highly sensitive to very weak gravitational
effects (such as Mossbauer devices or atomic clocks). Perhaps
the most promising device is one that involves detection of an
unusual non-electromagnetic wave (A vector/scalar wave). If
experiments with such sensors are successful, then significant
understanding of AP or AC phenomenon would occur. Experiments
with such a device is a distinct near-term possibility;
consequently this will be given high priority in the early part
of this long-range program.
(S/NF) Should these pilot experiments prove successful,
then a near and distant experiments would be developed for a wide
variety of devices to evaluate application aspects. Potential
applications could include, for example, remote switching (in a
communication role) or possibly as a countermeasure to minimize
effectiveness of threat systems such as sensitive computer
components or sensors. Similarly, if these results are
successful, they would provide insight regarding potential
threats to U.S. systems or security.
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(S/NF) The specific experiments to be conducted in these
research domains will be defined during the first six to nine
months of the program utilizing the recommendations of the
working groups mentioned above.
VII. (U) APPLIED RESEARCH PLAN FOR ANOMALOUS COGNITION:
(U) Figure 6 illustrates the overall plan for the applied
research portion for several main functional categories.
a. (U) SELECTION
(C) The most promising potential for selecting
individuals is to identify ancillary activity that correlates
with AC ability. If such a procedure can be identified, then
receiver selection can be incorporated as part of other screening
tests (e.g., fighter pilot candidacy), and thus large populations
can be used. Among the items that will be examined are
physiology (e.g., responses of the brain to external stimuli) and
hypnotic susceptibility (i.e., an individuals predisposition for
being hypnotized). The results of this effort will be examined
continuously; however, a decision to end the investigation will
occur in mid FY96. Should the results at that time warrant, then
refining of the techniques will continue to the end of FY 1998.
The reason the initial research spans several years is that to
validate even one psychological finding requires long-term
testing of candidate individuals. Current statistical methods
require many AC sessions, and experience has shown that only a
few sessions can be conducted per week for any single individual.
(C) The previous program was able to estimate
that approximately one percent of the general population
possessed a high-quality, natural AC ability. Because the
empirical method (i.e., asking large groups to attempt AC) is
labor intensive and very inefficient, it is included in the
research plan only as an alternate approach.
b. (U) TRAINING
(S/NF) Training has been a major part of the
previous program; however, results of training approaches have
been difficult to evaluate and have not been examined
systematically. Systematic review of this issue was begun in FY
92. One of the methods that will be examined involves lowering
an individual's visual subliminal threshold (i.e., the level
below which an individual is not consciously aware of visual
material). This could enhance the individual's sensitivity to AC
data. Other forms of altered states, such as dreaming and
hypnosis, will also be evaluated to see if such states can
enhance AC data quality.
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UNCLASSIFIED
TIME FRAME
ACTIVITY
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
State Parameters
PERSONNEL
(Hypnosis, Physiology, Etc.)
Psychology
SELECTION
RESEARCH
(Self Report, Behavioral tleasures, Etc.)
Solicit Known Talent Empirical Class Screening)
State Parameters (Altered States Subliminal Threshold tleasures. Etc. L
PERSONNEL
Empirical Evaluation
TRAINING
RESEARCH
Practical Application Tests (Increasing Project Difficulty)
Target Characteristics (Entropy, Size, Etc.)
APPLICATION
Other Aspects (Target Function, Dynamics, Degree of
EUALUATI ON
Importance, Etc.)
RESEARCH
Operational Conditions (Targets, Feedback, Etc.)
PROTOCOL
Search/Location Projects
DEVELOPMENT
New Applications/Procedures
Response Definition Written Drawn Physiological Measures, Etc.)
ANALYSIS
METHOD
Artificial Intellicrence (Fuzzy Sets Etc.)
DEVELOPMENT
Neural Network Analogies
Combination of tletbods
DATA
Intelli nce Data Fusion thuds
INTEGRATION/
Training/Seminars
ASSIMILATION
Advanced Training
DEVELOPMENT
Various Customers
Figure 6 (U) Applied Research Milestones - Anomalous Cognition
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(U) Results on these issues should be available
at the close of FY95. If no progress has been observed and if
there have been no positive results from the basic research, the
task ends. However, should any of the variables examined appear
promising then the task will be continued.
(S/NF) it is anticipated that all laboratory
successes must be validated by simulating operational tasks.
These experiments involve identifying the specialty to be tested,
the acceptance criteria, and conducting sessions in which the
complete target systems are know. This three-year activity runs
concurrently with the other tasks but with a one-year offset to
allow for planning.
c. (U) TARGET/APPLICATION SELECTION
(C) Based on earlier research, the most promising
approach to target selection appears to be a single physical
characteristic called entropy (i.e., a measure of inherent target
information). Beginning in FY95, two and one half years have
been allocated for the detailed study of this aspect of target
properties. Initially, little experimentation is required;
rather, a retrospective examination of previous target systems
should indicate if this approach is valid. Included in this
examination are detailed calculations of the information content
of natural target scenes.
(S/NF) Beginning in mid FY96, other potential
intrinsic target properties will be examined. For example, a
target may be more readily sensed by AC if the collection of
elements at the site (e.g., landmark, buildings, roads)
constitute a conceptually coherent unit as opposed to a collage
of unrelated items. Quantitative definition of targets will also
be developed that include non-physical target parameters such as
function, meaning, or relationships. These aspects are highly
important in most operational projects and need to be quantified.
(S/NF) Part of this effort will involve
investigations that serve two purposes: (1) add insight into
the phenomenon; and (2) help evaluate the feasibility of certain
potential applications. For example, long distance experiments
could be conducted to or from deep caves or submarines in deep
water to test communication potential and transmission theories.
Experiments could also be conducted to targets on board space
platforms to test distance and gravitational effects.
Experiments to or from magnetically shielded rooms or certain
earth locations (e.g., the magnetic pole) might indicate if
magnetic fields influence the phenomenon. Experiments to
opposite sides of the earth might also indicate if a mass or
gravity effect can be noted.
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(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) This area of investigation will
be integrated with a variety of applications in coordination with
findings/investigations pursued by the in-house effort. Figure 9
identifies the main application or operational areas. Along with
types of data desired. This activity will be integrated, where
possible, into in-house pursuits that will explore these areas in
a systematic fashion. Initial emphasis will be in
counternarcotics and counterterrorism areas.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Specific types of applications
that will be explored in-depth include the search problem.
Search tasks are expected to remain as high priority operational
tasks (e.g., hostage location, lost equipment or system
location). Search tasks are complicated by timing issues,
especially if the missing target is being moved frequently.
Related to this will be examination of predictive capability in
order to evaluate feasibility of detecting hostile plans and
intentions in advance. Pilot studies of other areas (e.g., code
breaking, medical diagnostics, low intensity conflict support)
will also be initiated.
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Another application area that
will be examined is "communications". Previous research
indicates that with proper protocols, basic or coded messages can
be sent and received via AC procedures. Redundant coding methods
can readily enhance probability of success, and new statistical
methods can also improve success rates. Communication
applications may have significant value for search problems by
providing additional information on location of kidnapped or
hostage victims. Such techniques might also help in determining
hostage or POW state-of-health or other significant issues.
d. (U) PROTOCOLS
(U) Given the laboratory success of AC
experimentation, the protocol task can build upon a substantial
literature. Determining optimal, specialty-dependent protocols
only require extending current concepts. Several years are
required due to the statistical nature of analysis that is
required to determine the effects of environment, receiver,
target and feedback conditions. Several high-interest
application areas (such as search/location) will be examined in
detail. A variety of session procedures will be evaluated to
determine those that are beneficial to improving data quality.
(S/NF) Protocol effectiveness may be measured by
quality, quantity, and/or usefulness of the AC information
elicited by its use. The requirements for protocols that are
designed for laboratory settings are considerably more
restrictive than those required for operational settings. For
example, providing limited information to a receiver while an
operational session is in progress (i.e., intermediate feedback)
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might facilitate the acquisition of the desired data. This kind
of feedback is strictly prohibited, however, in most protocols
designed for laboratory experiments. Protocols may also vary
depending on nature of the data required. For example, for some
search projects, only general data may be adequate. For such
cases would not require development of highly specific details
and protocols the sessions would not be as complex.
(U) A detailed protocol will need to consider a
variety of potential session variables such as the individuals'
physical environment, mental state and attitude, and how the
target or task is designated (e.g., coordinates, abstract terms).
Other data includes specifics of the session (monitor present or
not), type of feedback, type of response data (e.g., predictive),
and mode and method of response (e.g., drawings, verbal).
(S/NF) Concurrently, the only known way to
resolve the above issues is to conduct a large number of trials
for a given individual with as many of the potential variables as
possible held constant. Standard statistical methods can then be
used to identify trends, patterns, and operational constraints.
e. (U) DATA ANALYSIS
(U) This area requires extensive review of
leading analysis tools, such as those required for describing
imprecise concepts or data (i.e., artificial intelligence
techniques, fuzzy sets). This work will be combined with
findings from neural network analysis and research, or possibly
combinations of other emerging advanced analysis methods.
(S/NF) Various approaches that are anticipated to
directly benefit operational evaluations. One promising
technique involves procedures based on an adaptive (frequent data
base update) approach. This will permit an individual's
progression, and possibly time dependent data variables in an
individual's track record, to be identified.
(S/NF) In addition to the search for new analysis
methods, the current methods will also be reexamined. Laboratory
requirements differ from those for operational activities in that
the target can be controlled and well defined. For operational
activities, uncertainties in tasking may arise, especially if
operational requirements are changing or if some of the initial
"known" data are incorrect. Such uncertainties complicate later
analyses.
(S/NF) Analysis methods will also be developed
that can make predictions on data quality for any given task.
This will require development of an extensive track record for
each individual based on both controlled and operational
projects.
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(S/NF) These analysis methods will also address
certain practical issues. For example, a detailed, high-quality
example of AC data may have little value to an intelligence
analyst if that information was known from other sources.
Likewise, a poor example of AC data might provide a single
element as a tip-off for other assets, or provide the missing
piece in a complex analysis, and thus be quite valuable. The
intelligence utility of AC data may in some cases be only weakly
connected to the AC quality. Therefore a data fusion analysis
procedure is needed for AC-derived operational data. Methods
that permit appropriate data analysis from an accuracy and
utility viewpoint will be developed.
f. (U) INTEGRATION
(U) This activity would be an on-going review/
integration effort in order to identify patterns or clues useful
for understanding practical aspects of this phenomenological
area.
(S/NF) Identifying approaches and procedures that
permit assimilation of AC data from operational support projects
into all-source intelligence analysis procedures will also be
part of this support activity. Depending on results of applied
research findings and operational pursuits, a basic seminar/
training program for other applications-oriented elements might
be established. Such a training/seminar program would focus on
basic techniques and would augment possible operational training
activity that might become part of the in-house effort. This
would require several years to develop and establish.
(S/NF) The specific experiments to be conducted
in these research domains will be defined during the first six to
nine months of the program utilizing the recommendations of the SG1B
working groups mentioned above.
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SG1 B
IX. (U) POTENTIAL RESEARCH RETURN:
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) The in-house and external research
pursuits identified in this overall research and peer review plan
have the potential for achieving highly significant results using
AMP to address problems of national security by pushing the
phenomena to their natural limits. This overall result will be
achieved by:
- Determining the underlying physical
mechanisms of AMP.
- Isolating specific brain processes
involved in the phenomenon.
- Identifying unique applications
involving energetics" phenomenon (e.g.,
remote switching).
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(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) It is the intention of STAR GATE to
pursue all aspects of this area with high intensity, drawing on
an experienced and well-qualified staff along with appropriate
external assistance, in order to quantify and evaluate all
available classified and unclassified research. By so doing,
discoveries into how these phenomena work may be achievable. How
to identify people with such talent (or potential for it) and how
to develop/train selected individuals should also be a natural
end-result. STAR GATE also draw heavily from lessons learned in
all previous research and application investigations on a
worldwide basis.
X. (U) PROJECT OVERSIGHT METHODOLOGY:
A. (U) PROGRAM MANAGEMENT/OVERSIGHT
(S/NF) DIA, as executive agent, has implemented a
management structure that fosters a proactive, responsive, and
creative environment for this activity. Both external research
and in-house activities are centered in one unit (PAG-TA) under
the direct supervision of the Director, Office for Ground Forces
(DIA/PAG).
(S/NF) Project oversight for this program will be
provided by a Project Review Board (PRB) composed of five senior
management individuals selected from areas of DIA outside of the
National Military Intelligence Production Center (NMIPC). In
addition, a six-member Project Oversight Panel will be
established to provide program and technical guidance on all STAR
GATE activities. The 28 member DIA Advisory Board has been
appraised of the STAR GATE program and their recommendations have
been incorporated into project activities. Review/guidance is
available from DIA's Executive Director and from the Deputy
Director. The General Defense Intelligence Program (GDIP) staff
director conducts periodic project reviews and provides guidance.
Links with the Intelligence Community help provide a broader
management and program review base for this activity.
(U) The extensive nature and scope of these various
program management and oversight activities will insure that all
activities identified in this long-range plan can be
appropriately monitored and evaluated on an on-going basis.
(S/NF) Oversight for external contract activity is
currently provided by a six-member expert Scientific Oversight
Committee (SOC). A Human Use Review Board has also been
established to provide expert guidance/advice regarding
contractor adherence to appropriate DOD human use regulation.
(U) There is currently in place a contractor
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Scientific Oversight Committee (SOC) which is tasked with three
major responsibilities:
a. Review and approve all experimental protocols
prior to the collection of experimental data.
b. Critically review all experimental final
reports as if they were submissions to technical scientific
journals. All remarks in writing are included in the final
technical reports to DIA.
c. Suggest directions for further research.
(U), In addition to these responsibilities, the SOC
members are encouraged to exercise un-announced drop-in
privileges to view experiments in progress.
(U) The five voting members of the SOC are respected
scientists from the following disciplines: physics, astronomy,
statistics, neuroscience, and psychology. See Appendix E for
membership data.
(U) A contractor Institutional Review Board (IRB) is
currently in place with the responsibility of assuring compliance
with all U.S. and DoD regulations with regard to the use of
humans in experimentation and assuring their safety. The IRB
members represent the health, legal, and spiritual professions in
accordance with government guidelines. See Appendix F for
membership data.
(U) It is anticipated that oversight of this program
will be conducted by these Committees, if available, or new
committees with equivalent scientific credentials.
XI. (U) DEVELOPMENT OF EVALUATION CRITERIA:
A. (U) SCIENTIFIC VALIDITY
(S/NF) The STAR GATE Scientific Advisory Committee has
determined that the scientific validity of the STAR GATE program
has been satisfactorily demonstrated under the most demanding of
experimental protocols. An statistically significant anomaly
does exist which cannot be currently explained by conventional
means. For example, 77% of academics in the arts, humanities,
and education believe that AMP is either an established fact or a
likely possibility. Supporting technical evidence contained in
technical studies may be found at Appendix G.
(S/NF) A substantial number of examples dating back to
1972 provide at a minimum prima facia evidence that AMP can be
used in such a way as to provide a "value-added" function to the
Intelligence Community. Appendix H is a formal evaluation of the
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use of AMP for intelligence gathering purposes conducted'in 1987.
The overall findings of this evaluation were that "...the Project
Review Group has determined to its satisfaction that the work of
the Enhanced Human Performance Group is scientifically
sound... and is providing valuable insight into the nature of an
anomaly which have a significant impact on the DoD."
B. (U) PERFORMANCE
(S/NF) The ability of the STAR GATE program to produce
results that have an intelligence value can only be measured by
customer evaluations. AMP provided intelligence data, along with
other forms of intelligence, are evaluated, in part, with
subjective criteria. STAR GATE will develop feedback mechanisms
and procedures for customers that will result in a method of
quantifying this subjective feedback and evaluation data so that
the value added and cost-effectiveness can be measured.
XII. (U) BUDGET AND RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS
(FYs 95-99)?
(S/NF/SG/LIMDIS) Due to the diversity of the STAR GATE
mission/objectives, both external resources and in-house
expertise are required. Since this Activity possesses no in-
house R&D capability, an absolute need for external R&D support
is required to meet Congressional concerns which are addressed in
this program plan. A balance will be maintained between external
and in-house activities, and every effort will be made to
integrate and link these activities where appropriate. The
external aspect permits a wide range of expertise covering many
disciplines to be focused on this area; this also has the benefit
of ensuring peer group review and of facilitating a variety of
scientific interactions. In-house personnel with a wide-range of
expertise in this phenemenology will need to be retained to make
this proposed plan work.
(S/NF) In order to review the major tenets of the draft
program plan, the Defense Intelligence Agency will convene a
panel of appropriate scientists to provide recommendations on the
plan and the research it achieves. Based on the panel's
recommendations, the Defense Intelligence Agency will then submit
a budget line item to fund those approved objectives.
(C) An annual report will document the current
operational, technical and administrative status of the program.
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APPENDIX A
CONGRESSIONALLY-DIRECTED ACTION
DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION CONFERENCE
(S/NF) REQUEST: "The conferees are concerned that insufficient
funds have been spent on research and development to establish
the scientific basis for the STAR GATE program. The conferees
direct the Director of DIA to prepare a program plan and to
submit an appropriate budget request for a research effort, over
several years, to determine whether the STAR GATE program can
show results that are cost-effective and satisfy reasonable
performance criteria. This plan, and any research under this
program, should be subject to peer review by neutral scientific
experts. The Director of DIA is directed to prepare this
research and peer review plan within existing program funds."
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APPENDIX B
TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS
(U) PHENOMENA TERMINOLOGY:
(U) This phenomenological area has had a variety of
descriptive terms over the years, such as paranormal,
parapsychological, or as psychical research. Foreign researchers
use other terms: "psychoenergetics" in the USSR; "extraordinary
human function" in the People's Republic of China (PRC). In
general, this field is concerned with a largely unexplored area
of human consciousness/subconsciousness interactions associated
with unusual or underdeveloped human capabilities.
(U) Recently, researchers have shown a preference for terms
that are neutral and that emphasizes the anomalous or enigmatic
nature of this phenomena. The term anomalous mental phenomena
(AMP), is generally preferred.
(U) This area has two aspects; information access and
energetics influence. Information access refers to a mental
ability to describe remote areas or to access concealed data that
are otherwise shielded from all known sensory channels. A recent
term for this ability is anomalous cognition (AC). This term
places emphasis on potential understanding that might be
available from advances in sensory/brain functioning research or
other related research. Older terms for this aspect have
included extra-sensory perception (ESP), remote viewing (RV), and
in some cases, precognition.
(U) The energetics aspect refers to the ability to
influence, via mental volition, physical or biological systems by
an as yet unknown physical mechanism. An example of physical
system influence would include affecting the output-of sensors or
electronic devices; biological systems influence would include
affecting physiological parameters of an individual. A recent
descriptive term for this ability is anomalous perturbation (AP).
Older terms for this phenomenon included psychokinesis (PK) or
telekinesis.
(U) GENERAL DEFINITIONS:
(S/NF) For this program, basic research is defined to mean
any investigation or experiment for determining fundamental
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processes or for uncovering underlying parameters that are
involved in this phenomenon. Basic research is primarily
oriented toward understanding the physical, physiological , and
psychological mechanisms of anomalous mental phenomena (AMP).
(S/NF) Applied research refers to any investigation
directed toward developing particular applications or for
improving data quality and reliability. For anomalous cognition
(AC) phenomenon, research is primarily directed toward improving
the output quality of AC data. This would include ways to
develop/improve utility of AC data for variety of potential
application. For example, examination of spatial and temporal
relationships of AC data could assist in developing a reliable
search capability useful for locating missing people or
equipment.
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APPENDIX C
POTENTIAL RESEARCH SUPPORT FACILITIES
ANOMALOUS MENTAL PHENOMENA
Science Applications International Corp.
Mind Science Foundation
Princeton Engineering Anomalies Laboratory
American Society for Psychical Research
St. John's University
Foundation for Research into the Nature
of Man
ARE/Atlantic University
University of Virginia
Psychophysical Research Laboratories
Edinburgh University
OTHER RELATED DISCIPLINES
Psychology
Stanford University
Cornell University
Anthropology
University of California
University of Arizona
Psychophysiology
SRI International
Langly-Portor Neuropsychiatric Institute
Menninger Foundation
Psychoimmunology
California Institute for Transpersonal
Psychology
Cognitive Neuroscience
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Sandia National Laboratory
University of California
Los Altos, CA
San Antonio, TX
Princeton Univ, NJ
New York, NY
Long Island, NY
Durham, NC
Virginia Beach, VA
Charlottesville,
VA
Edinburgh,
Scotland
Edinburgh,
Scotland
Stanford, CA
Ithaca, NY
Berkeley, CA
Tucson, AZ
Menlo Park, CA
San Francisco, CA
Topeka, KS
Menlo Park, CA
Los Alamos, NM
Albuquerque, NM
San Diego, CA
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cognitive Psychology
Psychology Department, Princeton Univ Princeton, NJ
Psychology Department, City College of New York, NY
New York
Artificial Intelligence
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stanford University
Neural Networks
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Science Applications International Corp
statistics/Signal Analysis
University of California
Harvard University
Thermodynamics
Rochester University
Physics Department, Stanford University
Quantum Measurement
International Business Machines,
Research Laboratories
General Relativity
California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA
University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX
Electromagnetic/Basic Research
Electronetics Corp Buffalo, NY
Battelle Corp Columbus, OH
Institute for Advanced Study Austin, TX
Cambridge, MA
Stanford, CA
Cambridge, MA
Los Altos,' CA
Davis, CA
Cambridge, MA
Rochester, NY
Stanford, CA
College Park, MD
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APPENDIX D
RESOURCE LITERATURE
1. A.R.E. Journal
2. Abnormal hypnotic Phenomena
3. American Anthropologist
4. American Ethnologist
5. American Journal of Clinical Hypnosis
6. American Journal of Physiology
7. American Journal of Sociology
8. American Psychologist
9. American Society for Psychical Research
10. Annals of Eugenics
11. Annals of Mathematical Statistics
12. Annales de Sciences Psychiques
13. Archivo di Psicologica Neurologic e Psychiatra
14. Association for the Anthropological Study of Consciousness
Newsletter
15. Behavioral and Brain Science
16. Behavioral Science
17. Bell System Technical Journal
18. Biological Psychiatry
19. Biological Review
20. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
21. British Journal of Psychology
22. Bulletin of the American Physical Research
23. Bulletin of the Boston Society for Psychic Research
24. Bulletin of the Los Angeles Neurological Societies
25. Contributions to Asian Studies
26. Electroencephalography and Clinical Neurophysiology
27. Endeavour
28. Ethnology
29. Exceptional Human Experience
30. Experientia
31. Experimental Medicine and surgery
32. Fate
33. Fields within Fields
34. Foundations of Physics
35. Hibbert Journal
36. Human Biology
37. International Journal of Clinical and Experimental Hypnosis
38. International Journal of Comparative Sociology
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39. International Journal of Neuropsychiatry
40. International Journal of Parapsychology
41. International Journal of Psychoanalysis
42. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology
43. Journal of Altered States of Consciousness
44. Journal of Applied Physics
45. Journal of Applied Psychology
46. Journal of Asian and African Studies
47. Journal of Biophysical and Biochemical Cytology
48. Journal of Cell Biology
49. Journal of Communication
50. Journal of Comparative and Physiological Psychology
51. Journal of Consulting Psychology
52. Journal of Existential Psychiatry
53. Journal of Experimental Biology
54. Journal of Experimental Psychology
55. Journal of General Psychology
56. Journal of Genetic Psychology
57. Journal of Mind and Behavior
58. Journal of Nervous and Mental Diseases
59. Journal of Personality
60. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
61. Journal of Research in PSI Phenomena
62. Journal of Scientific Exploration
63. Journal of the American Academy of Psychoanalysis
64. Journal of the London Mathematical Society
65. Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute of Great
Britain and Ireland
66. Metapsichica
67. Mind-Brain Bulletin
68. Motivation and Emotion
69. Nature
70. Naturwissenschaftliche Rundschau
71. New Horizons
72. New Scientist
73. New Sense bulletin
74. Newsletter of the Parapsychology Foundation
75. Parapsychology Bulletin
76. Parapsychology Abstracts International
77. Parapsychology Review
78. Perceptual and Motor Skills
79. Philosophy of Science
80. Physiology and Behavior
81. Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research
82. Psychedelic Review
83. Psychic
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84. Psychic Science
85. Psychoanalytic Quarterly
86. Psychoanalytic Review
87. Psychological Bulletin
88. Psychometrika
89. Psychophysiology
90. Physics Today
91. Renti Teyigongneng (EFHB Research) [PRC]
92. Revue Metapsychique
93. Revue Philosophique
94. Revue Philosophique de la France et de L'Etranger
95. Revue Philosophique Applique
96. Science
97. Skeptical Inquirer
98. Social Studies of Science
99. Subtle Energies
100. The Humanistic Psychology Institute
101. The Journal of Parapsychology
102. The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research
103. Theta
104. Tijdschrif voor Parapsychologie
105. Tomorrow
106. Voprosy Filosofi (Questions of Philosophy) [RUSSIA]
107. Western Canadian Journal of Anthropology
108. Zeitschrift fur die Gesamte Neurologie and Psychiatrie
109. Zietschrift fur Parapsychologie and Grenzgebeite der
Psychologie
110. Zietschrift fur Tierpsychologie
111. Zietschrift fur Vergleichende Physiologie
112. Zetetic Scholar
113. Zhongguo Shebui Kexue (China Social Sciences) [PRC]
114. Ziran Zazhi (Nature) [PRC]
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APPENDIX E
CURRENT CONTRACTOR SCIENTIFIC OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP
Steven A. Hillyard
- Professor of Neurosciences, Department of Neurosciences,
University of California, San Diego.
- Author or coauthor of 118 technical neuroscience
publications.
- Eighty-two invited presentations at technical conferences.
- Ph.D., Yale University, 1968 (Psychology).
S. James Press
- Professor of Statistics, Department of Statistics, University
of California, Riverside.
- Author or coauthor of 132 statistics publications.
- Author of 12 books and/or monographs.
- Ph.D., Stanford University, 1964 (Statistics).
Garrison Rapmund
- Responsible for facilitating transfer of Strategic
Defense Initiative technologies to health care industries.
- Major General, USA retired in 1986 as Assistant Surgeon
General (R&D) and Commander, Army Medical R & D Command.
- M.D., Columbia University, 1953 (Pediatrics).
Melvin Schwartz
- Associate Director for High Energy and Nuclear Physics,
Brookhaven National Laboratory.
- Author or coauthor of 40 technical publications in high energy
physics, author of "Principles of Electrodynamics."
- Nobel Prize, Physics (1988).
- Ph.D., Columbia University, 1958 (Physics).
Yervant Terzian
- Professor of Physical Sciences, Chairman of the Department of
Astronomy, Cornell University.
- Author/coauthor of numerous technical publications and books.
- Ph.D., Indiana University, 1965 (Astronomy).
Phillip G. Zimbardo
- Professor of Psychology, Department of Psychology, Stanford
University.
- Author/coauthor of numerous experimental psychology
publications.
- Ph.D., Yale University, 1959 (Psychology).
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APPENDIX F
CURRENT CONTRACTOR INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARD MEMBERSHIP
Byron Wm. Brown, Jr., Ph.D.
- Biostatistics, Stanford University
Gary R. Fujimoto, M. D.
- occupational Medicine, Palo Alto Medical Foundation
John Hanley, M. D.
- Neuropsychiatry, University of California, Los Angeles
Robert B. Livingston, M. D.
- Neuroscience, University of California, San Diego
Robin P. Michelson, M. D.
- Otolaryngology, University of California, San Francisco
Ronald Y. Nakasone, Ph.D.
- Buddhist Studies, Institute of Buddhist Studies, Berkeley, CA
Garrison Rapmund, M. D. (Chair)
- Air Force Science Advisory Board
Louis J. West, M. D.
- Neuropsychiatry, University of California, Los Angeles
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APPENDIX G-
ACADEMIC STUDIES REGARDING THE SCIENTIFIC VALIDITY OF AMP
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 CPYRGHT
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Fsyc/ological Bulletin (January, 1994)
Version 4.7
October 1, 1993
Does Psi Exist?
Replicable Evidence for an
Anomalous Process of Information Transfer
Dary1 0 and suppose that initial prior -opinion
about 0 can e . described by the noninformative
prior * lr(0) = 1: We consider the "one-sided testing
problem with a constant prior in this section, be-
cause it is known 'that then 'the posterior probabil-
ity of Ho, to be denoted by P(Ho data), equals the
P: value, allowing us to avoid complications arising
from -differences between Bayesian and classical '
answers.
After observing zl = 2.46, the posterior distribu-
tion of 0 is
lr(0I z1) = N(012.46, 1).
Question 1 then has the answer (using predictive
Bayesian reasoning)
P(rejecting at level a
~~ f 1 e_'d2 =-6)2x(6 I zl) d6 dz2
Ca 2
c< - 2.46
1 1.
where t is the standard normal cdf and C. is the
(one-sided) critical value corresponding to the level,
a, of the test. For instance, if a 0 .05, then this
probability equals 0.7178, demonstrating that there
e second
is a quite substantial probability 'thatAil
F...........a - Tr ,,. ;a'rhei4i&nAo be
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REPLICATION IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY
A sensible candidate for the prior density x((3)
is the Cauchy (0, V) density
xv(p) =
xV(1 + (o/V)21
Flat-tailed densities, such as this, are well known
to have the property that when discordant data is
observed (e.g., when (I y - X21 is large), substan-
tial mass shifts away from the prior center towards
the likelihood center. It is easy to see that a normal
prior for 0 can not have the desired behavior.
Our first surprise in consideration of these priors
was how small V needed to be chosen in order for
P(Ho I y, x1) to be unaffected. by the.. bias. For
instance, even with V = 1.54/100 (recall that 1.54
was the standard deviation of Y from the original
experiment), computation yields P(Ho I y, x1) _
4.3 x 10-5, compared with the P-value {and poste-
rior probability from the original experiment as=suming no bias). of 2.8 x 10-'. There is a clear
lesson here; even very small suspicions of bias can
drastically alter a small P-value. Note that replica-
tion 1 is very consistent with the presence of no
bias, and so the posterior distribution for the bias
remains tightly concentrated near zero; for in-
stance, the mean of the posterior for 0 is then
7.2 x 10-6 , and the standard deviation is 0.25.
When we turned attention to replication 2, we
found that it did not seriously change the prior
perceptions of bias. Examination quickly revealed
the -reason; even the maximum likelihood estimate
of the bias is no more than 1.4 standard deviations
from zero, which is not enough to change strong
prior beliefs. We, therefore, considered a third
experiment, defined in Table 1. Transforming to
approximate normality, as before, yields
X3 - N(x3 0, 3.48),
with x3 = 22.72 being the actual observation. The
maximum likelihood estimate of bias is now 3.95
standard deviations from zero, so there is potential
for a substantial change in opinion about the bias.
Sure enough, computation when V = 1.54/100
yields that E[ 0 1 y, x3 ] = - 4.9 with (posterior)
standard deviation equal to 6.62, which is a dra-
matic shift from prior opinion (that 0 is Cauchy (0,
TABLE 1
Frequency of heart attacks in replication 3
CPYRGHT
381
1.54/100)). The effect of this is to essentially ignore
the original experiment in overall assessments of
evidence. For instance, P(Ho I y, x3) = 3.81 x
10-11., which is very close to P(Ho I x3) 3.29 x
10- 11. Note that, if 0 were set equal to zero, the
overall posterior probability of Ho (and P-value)
would be 2.62 x 10-13.
Thus Bayesian reasoning can reproduce the intu-
ition that replication which indicates bias can cast
considerable doubt on the original experiment,
while replication which provides no evidence of
bias leaves evidence from the original experiment
intact. Such behavior seems only obtainable, how-
ever, (with flat-tailed priors for bias (such as the
Cauchy) that are very concentrated (in comparison
with the experimental standard deviation) near
zero.
3. P-VALUES OR BAYES FACTORS?
Parapsychology experiments usually consider
testing of Ho: No parapsychological effect exists.
Such null hypotheses are often realistically repre-
sented as .point nulls (see Berger and Delampady,
1987, for the reason that care must be taken in
such representation), in which case it is known that
there is a large difference between P-values and
posterior probabilities (see Berger and Delampady,
1987, for review). The article by Jefferys (1990)
dramatically illustrates this, showing that a very
small P-value can actually correspond to evidence
for Ho when considered from a Bayesian perspec-
tive. (This is very related to the famous "Jeffreys"
paradox.) The argument in favor of the Bayesian
approach here is very strong, since it can be shown
that the conflict holds for virtually any sensible
prior distribution; a Bayesian answer can be wrong
if the prior information turns out to be inaccurate,
but a Bayesian answer that holds for all sensible
priors is unassailable.
Since P-values simply cannot be viewed as mean-
ingful in these situations, we found it of interest to
reconsider the example in Section 5 from a Bayes
factor perspective. We considered only analysis of
the overall totals, that is, x = 122 successes out of
n = 355 trials. Assuming a simple Bernoulli trial
model with success probability 0, the goal is to test
Ho:O = 1 /4 versus H1:0 # 1/4.
To determine the Bayes factor here, one must
specify g(0), the conditional prior density on H1.
Consider choosing g to be uniform and symmetric,
that is,
11 1 1
Gr(0) _ 2r, for 4- r c 0 s 4+ r,
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REPLICATION IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY
bate. This debate is also a good example of how
statistical criticism can be part of the scientific
process and lead to better experiments and, in gen-
eral; better science.
The remainder of the paper addresses technical
issues of meta-analysis, drawing upon recent re-
search in parapsychology for an in-depth applica-
tion. Through a .series of examples, the author
presents a convincing argument that power issues
cannot be overlooked in successive replications and
that comparison of effect sizes provides a richer
alternative to the dichotomous measure inherent in
the use of p-values. This is particularly relevant
when the potential effect size is small and re-
sources are, limited, as seems to be the case for psi
studies.
The concluding section briefly mentions Bayesian
techniques. As noted by the author, Bayes (or em-
pirical Bayes) methodology seems to make sense for
research in parapsychology. This discussion exam-
ines possible Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis
in this field.
BAYES MODELS FOR PARAPSYCHOLOGY
The notion of repeatability maps well into the
Bayesian set-up in which experiments, viewed as a
random sample from some superpopulation of ex-
periments, are assumed to be exchangeable. When
subjects can also be viewed as an approximately
random sample from some population, it is appro-
priate to pool them across experiments. Otherwise,
analyses that partially pool information according.
to experimental heterogeneity need to be consid-
ered. Empirical and hierarchical Bayes methods
offer a flexible modeling framework for such analy-
ses, relying on empirical or subjective sources to
determine the degree of pooling. These richer meth-
ods can be particularly useful to meta-analysis of
experiments in parapsychology conducted under
potentially diverse conditions.
For the recent ganzfeld series, assuming them
to be independent binomially distributed as dis-
cussed in Section 5, the data can be summed
(pooled) across series to estimate a common hit
rate. Honorton et al. (1990) assessed the homogene-
ity of effects across the 11 series using a chi-square
test that compares individual effect sizes to
the weighted mean effect. The chi-square statistic
X10 = 16.25, not statistically significant (p =
0.093), largely reflects the contribution of the last
"special" series (contributes 9.2 units to the Xio
value), and to a lesser extent the novice series with
a negative effect (contributes 2.5 units). The outlier
CPYRGHT
effects for this data (this result is reported in Sec-
tion 5). For the remaining 10 series, the chi-square
value X9 = 7.01 strongly favors homogeneity, al-
though more than one-third of its value is due to
the novice series (number 4 in Table 1). This pat-
tern points to the potential usefulness of a richer
model to accommodate series that may be distinct
from the others. For the earlier ganzfeld data ana-
lyzed by Honorton (1985b), the appeal of a Bayes or
other model that recognizes the heterogeneity
across studies is clear cut: X23 = 56.6, p = 0.0001,
where only those studies with common chance hit
rate have been included (see Table 2).
Historic reliance on voting-count approaches to
determine the presence of psi effects makes it natu-
ral to consider Bayes models that focus on the
ensemble of experimental effects from parapsycho-
logical studies, rather than individual estimates.
Recent work in parapsychology that compares ef-
fect sizes across studies, rather than estimating
separate study effects, reinforces the need to exam-
ine this type of model. Louis (1984) develops Bayes
and empirical Bayes methods for problems that
consider the ensemble of parameter values to be
the primary goal, for example, multiple compar-
isons. For the simple compound normal model,
Y, - N(0i, 1), 0. - N(A, r2), the standard Bayes
estimates (posterior means)
r2
6*=u+D(Y.-p) and D= 1+r2
where the 8i represent experimental effects of in-
terest, are modified approximately to
9j=u+/(Y.-K)
when an ensemble loss function is assumed. The
new estimates adjust the shrinkage factor D so
that their sample mean and variance match the
posterior expectation and variance of the 8's. Simi-
lar results are obtained when the model is gener-
TABLE 1
Recent ganzfeld series
Series type
N Trials
Hit rate
Y;
a;
Pilot
22
0.36
-0.58
0.44
Pilot
9
0.33
-0.71
0.71
Pilot
36
0.28
-0.94
0.37
Novice
50
0.24
-1.15
0.33
Novice
50
0.36
-0.58
0.30
Novice
50
0.30
-0.85
0.31
Novice
50
0.36
-0.58
0.30
Novice
6
0.67
0.71
0.87
Experienced
7
0.43
-0.28
0.76
Experienced
50
0.30
-0.85
0.31
Experienced
25
0.64
0.58
0.42
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REPLICATION IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY 385
maximum likelihood estimation that modify the
sampling error distribution to yield estimates that
are "robust" against outlying observations.
Like its maximum likelihood counterparts, in ad-
dition to the robust effect estimates 0,*, the Bayes
model provides (posterior) scale estimates y, '. These
can be 'interpreted as the weight given to the data
for each 01. in the analysis and are useful to diag-
nosing which model. components (series or studies)
are unusual and how they influence the shrinkage.
When more complex groupings among the 0, are
suspected, for example, bimodal distribution of
studies from,different sites. or experimenters, other
mixture. specifications can be used to further relax
the shrinkage toward a common value.
For the 11 ganzfeld series, the last "outlier"
series, quite distinct from the others (hit rate =
0.64), is moderately precise (N = 25). Omitting it
from the analysis causes the overall hit rate to drop
from 0.344 to 0.321. The scale mixture model is .a
compromise between these two values (on the logit
scale), discounting the influence of series 11 on the
estimated posterior common hit rate used for
shrinkage. The scale factor yll, an indication of
how separate 01 is from the other parameters, also
causes 011 to be shrunk less toward the common hit
rate than other, more homogeneous 0i, giving more
weight to individual information for that series (see
West, 1985). The heterogeneity of the earlier
ganzfeld data is more pronounced, and studies are
taken from -a .variety of sources over time. For these
data, the y; can be used to explore atypical studies
(e.g., study 6, with. hit rate '= 0.90, contributes more
than 25% to the X23 value for homogeneity) and
groupings. among effects, as well as protect the
analysis from misspecification of second-stage
normality.
Variation among ganzfeld series or studies and
the degree to which pooling or shrinking is appro-
priate can be investigated further by considering a
range of priors for r2. If the marginal likelihood of
r2 dominates the prior specification, then results
should not vary as the prior for r2 is varied. Other.
wise, it is important to identify the degree to which
subjective information about interexperimental
variability influences the conclusions. This sen-
sitivity analysis is a Bayesian enrichment of
the simpler test of homogeneity directed toward
determining whether or not complete pooling is
appropriate.
To assess how well heterogeneity among his-
torical control groups is determined by the data.
Dempster, Selwyn and Weeks (1983) propose three
priors for r2 in the logistic-normal model. The prior
distributions range from strongly favoring individ-
ual estimates, p(r2)dr < r', to the uniform refer-
ence prior p(r2)dr < r-2, flat on the log r scale, to
strongly favoring complete pooling, p(r2)dr < r'3
(the latter forcing complete pooling for the com-
pound normal model; see Morris, 1983). For their
two examples, the results (estimates of linear treat-
ment effects) are largely insensitive to variation.in
the prior distribution, but the number of studies in
each example was large (70 and 19 studies avail-
able for pooling). For-the 11 ganzfeld series, r2 may
be less well determined by the data. The posterior
estimate of r2 and its sensitivity to p(r2)dr- will
also depend on whether individual scale parame-
ters are incorporated into the model. Discounting
the influence of the last series will both shift the
marginal likelihood toward smaller values of r2
and concentrate it more in that region.
The issue of objective assessment of experiment
results is one that extends well beyond the field of
parapsychology, and this paper provides insight into
issues surrounding the analysis and interpretation
of small effects from related studies. Bayes meth-
ods can contribute to such meta-analyses in two
ways. They permit experimental and subjective evi-
dence to be formally combined to determine the
presence or absence of effects that are not clear cut
or controversial (e.g., psi abilities). They can also
help uncover sources and degree of uncertainty in
the scientific conclusions.
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advances methodically and objectively through the
accumulation of knowledge (or the rejection of false
knowledge) derived from the implementation of the
scientific method. But, as we will see, there is more
to the acceptance of new scientific discoveries than
the systematic accumulation and evaluation of
facts. The recognition that there is a social process
involved with the acceptance or rejection of scien-
tific knowledge has been the subject of study of
sociologists for some time. The scientific commu-
nity's rejection of the existence of paranormal phe-
nomena is an excellent case study of this process
(Allison, 1979; Collins and Pinch, 1979);
Implicit in Professor Utts' presentation and
paramount to the acceptance of parapsychology as
a legitimate science are the description and docu-
mentation of the professionalization of the field of
parapsychology. It is true that many researchers in
the field have university appointments; there are
organized professional societies. for the advance-
ment of parapsychology; there are journals with
rigorous standards for published research; the field
has received funding from federal agencies; and
parapsychology has received recognition from other
professional societies, such as the IMS and the
American Association for the Advancement of Sci-
ence (Collins and Pinch, 1979). Nevertheless, most
readers of Statistical Science would agree that
parapsychology is not accepted as part of orthodox
science and is considered by most of the scientific
community to be on the margins of science, at best
(Allison, 1979; Collins and Pinch; 1979). Why is
this the case? Professor Utts believes that it is
because people have not examined the data. She
states that "Strong beliefs tend to be resistant to
change even in the face of data, and many people,
scientists included, seem to have made up their
minds on the question without examining any em-
pirical data at all."
The history of science is replete with examples of
resistance by the established scientific community
to new discoveries. A challenging problem for sci-
ence is to understand the process by which a new
theory or discovery becomes accepted by the com-
munity of scientists and, likewise, to characterize
the nature of the resistance to new ideas. Barber
(1961) suggests that there are many different
sources of resistance to scientific discovery. In 1900,
for example, Karl Pearson met resistance to his use
of statistics in applications to biological problems,
illustrating a source of resistance due to the use of
a particular methodology. The Royal Society in-
formed Pearson that future papers submitted to the
Society for publication must keep the mathematics
entific ideas, and the one referred to by Professor
Utts above, is the prevailing substantive beliefs
and theories held by scientists at any given time.
Bar r offers the opposition to Copernicus and his
heliocentric theory and to Mendel's theory of ge-
netic inheritance as examples of how, because of
preconceived ideas, theories and values, scientists
are not as open-minded to new advances as one
might think they should be. It was R. A. Fisher
who said that each generation seems to have found
in Mendel's paper only what it expected to find and
ignored what did not conform to its own expecta-
tions (Fisher, 1936).
Pearson's response to the antimathematical prej-
udice expressed by the Royal Society was to estab-
lish with Galton's support a new journal,
Biometrika, to encourage the use of mathematics in
biology. Galton (1901) wrote an article for the first
issue of the journal, explaining the need for this
new voice of "mutual encouragement and support"
for mathematics in biology and saying that "a new
science cannot depend on a welcome from the fol-
lowers of the older ones, and (therefore] ... it is
advisable to establish a special Journal for Biome-
try." Lavoisier understood the role of preconceived
beliefs as a source of resistance when he wrote in
1785,
I do not expect my ideas to be adopted all at
once. The human mind gets creased into a way
of seeing things. Those who have envisaged
nature according to a certain point of view
during much of their career, rise only with
difficulty to new ideas. (Barber, 1961.)
I suspect that this paper by Professor Utts syn-
thesizing the accumulation of research results sup-
porting the existence of paranormal phenomena
will continue to be received with skepticism by the
orthodox scientific community "even after examin-
ing the data." In part, this resistance is due to the
popular perception of the association between para-
psychology and the occult (Allison, 1979) and due
to the continued suspicion and documentation of
fraud in parapsychology (Diaconis, 1978). An addi-
tional and important source of resistance to the
evidence presented by Professor Utts, however, is
the lack of a model to explain the phenomena.
Psychic phenomena are unexplainable by any cur-
rent scientific theory and, furthermore, directly
contradict the laws of physics. Acceptance of psi
implies the rejection of a large body of accumulated
evidence explaining the physical and biological
world as we know it. Thus, even though the effect
size for a relationship between aspirin and the
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of a discipline it turns to meta-analysis to answer
research questions or to resolve controversy (e.g.,
Greenhouse et al., 1990).
One argument for combining information from
different studies is that a more powerful result can
be obtained than from a single study. This objective
is implicit in the use of meta-analysis in parapsy-
chology and is the force behind Professor Utts'
paper. The issue is that by combining many small
studies consisting of small effects there is a gain in
power to find an overall statistically significant
effect. It is true that the meta-analyses reported by
Professor Utts 'find extremely small p-values, but
the estimate of the overall effect size is still small.
As noted earlier, because of the small magnitude of
the overall effect size, the possibility that other
extraneous variables might account for the rela-
tionship remains.
Professor Utts, however, also' illustrates the use
of meta-analysis to investigate how studies differ
and to characterize the influence of difficult covari-
ates or moderating variables on the combined esti-
mate of effect size. For example, she compares the
mean effect size of studies where subjects were
selected on the basis of good past performance to
studies where the subjects were unselected, and she
compares the mean effect size of studies with feed-
back to studies without feedback. To me, this latter
use of meta-analysis -highlights the more valuable
and important contribution of the methodology.
Specifically, the value of quantitative methods for
Comment
Ray Hyman
Utts concludes that "there is an anomaly that
needs explanation." She bases this conclusion on
the ganzfeld experiments and four meta-analyses of
parapsychological studies. She argues that both
Honorton and Rosenthal have successfully refuted
my critique of the ganzfeld experiments. The meta-
analyses apparently show effects that cannot be
explained away by unreported experiments nor
over-analysis of the data. Furthermore, effect size
does not correlate with the rated quality of the
experiment.
research synthesis is in assessing the potential ef-
fects of study characteristics and to quantify the
sources of heterogeneity in a research domain, that
is, to study systematically the effects of extraneous
variables. Tom Chalmers and his group at Harvard
have used meta-analysis in just this way not only
to advance the understanding of the effectiveness of
medical therapies but also to study the characteris-
tics of good research in medicine, in particular, the
randomized controlled clinical trial. (See Mosteller
and Chalmers, 1991, for a review of this work.)
Professor Utts should be congratulated for her
courage in contributing her time and statistical
expertise to a field struggling on the margins of
science, and for her skill in synthesizing a large
body of experimental literature. I have found her
paper to be quite stimulating, raising many inter-
esting issues about how science progresses or does
not progress.
This work was supported in part by MHCRC
grant MH30915 and MH15758 from the National
Institute of Mental Health, and CA54852 from the
National Cancer Institute. I would like to acknowl-
edge stimulating discussions with Professors Larry
Hedges, Michael Meyer, Ingram Olkin, Teddy
Seidenfeld and Larry Wasserman, and thank them
for their patience and encouragement while prepar-
ing this discussion.
Neither time nor space is available to respond in
detail to her argument. Instead, I will point to
some of my concerns. I will do so by focusing on
those parts of Utts' discussion that involve me.
Understandably, I disagree with her assertions that
both'Honorton and Rosenthal successfully refuted
my criticisms of the ganzfeld experiments.
Her treatment of both the ganzfeld debate and
the National Research Council's report suggests
that Utts has relied on second-hand reports of the
data. Some of her statements are simply inaccu-
rate. Others suggest that she has not carefully read
what my critics and I have written. This remote-
ness from the actual experiments and details of the