SUN STREAK OPS/TNG OBJECTIVES, JANUARY 1986 - JANUARY 1988

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00789R002100350011-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 20, 2000
• Sequence Number: 11
• Content Type: CHART

Approved For Release 20
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SUN STREAK Ops/Tng Objectives
January 1986 - January 1988
Operations
900 sessions (4 sources)
*****************
Utility Assessment
80$ (720)
Collection
200 (180)
Training
450 sessions (2 trainees)
66$ (300)
33~ (150)
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RV Intelligence Utility Assessment
1. (S/SK/WNINTEL) Attached hereto a.re the target categories
selected for examination by RV in support of the planned RV
Intelligence Utility Assessment. They have been carefully
chosen to represent a broad spectrum of intelligence problems.
The intelligence function and production codes of the DIA
Register of Intelligence Publications (RIP) have been used so
that results from the RV assessment study will be readily
understood by intelligence users. Intelligence indicators will
be identified for each category as target packages are developed.
2. (S/SK/WNINTEL) Plans are to conduct 20 RV examinations (5
each per source) of each of the 36 selected categories from
January 1986 to January 1988 {20 X 36 = 720 sessions). Care
will be taken to maintain appropriate compartmentalization of
information relative to actual sites to be RVed. These
procedures will guarantee that sources are unburdened by
preconceived notions of the sites as well as insure that the
information reported by the sources is the product of RV and not
more conventional analytic eff_orts~
3. (S/SK/WNINTEL) The RV Intelligence Utility Assessment is
not an attempt to scientifically prove or disprove RV through
the use of statistical methodology. It is, as stated earlier,
an attempt to identify those categories of intelligence targets
which would best be serviced by RV. Therefore, each of the 720
RV examinations will be rated for accuracy and overall
intelligence value. The 0 to 3 point accuracy rating scale
developed by SRI International for GRILL FLAME will be used in
conjunction with a 0 to 3 point intelligence value rating:
Accuracy Scale
0 - Little correspondence
1 - Site contact with mixed results
2 - Good
3 - Excellent
HANDLE VIA SKEET CHANNELS ONLY
SPECIAL ACCESS REQUIRED
WARNING NOTICE: SENSITIVE CLASSIFIED BY: DIA/DT
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND DECLASSIFY ON: OADR
METHODS INVOLVED
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0 - No intelligence value
1 - Minimal intelligence value
2 - Moderate intelligence value
3 - High intelligence value
The reason for this dual rating is based on the experience of
CENTER LANE. Many times a RV session will yield very "accurate?'
data, but that data will be of little "value" to the
intelligence community. The RV Intelligence Utility Assessment
will identify those categories of intelligence targets for which
both accurate and valuable information can be provided.
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Judging on a Blind Basis
In this method, SRI selected an analyst not otherwise associated
with the series of sites to be judged to quantitatively assess
the degree of correspondence of a given transcript of the remote
viewer's data concerning each site and the actual targets. The
judge was given a transcript including a list of specific
concepts (e.g., "red" ar "shady") for each site and was
instructed to compare each transcript to each site (i.e., 6
sites = 6 transcripts/concept lists = 36 assessments per
concept). Each concept was rated on a scale of 0 to 10 with "0"
implying no correspondence between the concept and the target
site and "10" implying complete correspondence. Upon completion
of the rating, the judge then computed the average rating score
for all concepts in each transcript matched against each target,
displaying his results in a matrix with target displayed as rows
and transcripts displayed as columns. The transcripts were then
ranked 1-6 indicating which transcript most closely matched the
actual site. This technique, although apparently excellent with
regard to demanstr~ting the presence or absence of a viable RV
function, did not provide a uniform measure from transcript to
transcript of the quality of RV functioning. It therefore
became necessary to develop an objective method of evaluation.
.- ~-~_--
0-to-7 Point Rating Scale
This system was applied "nonblind;', post hoc to the evaluation
of the transcripts by the blind-judging method. For no
correspondence between the transcript and target site, 0 was
assigned; for excellent correspondence, 7; and for intermediate
correspondence an intermediate rating. Several methods of
"targeting" the viewer were used, and an average of accuracy was
obtsined for each method. A comparison of the rating produced
with this approach against the ratings produced by the
blind-judging approach showed statistically significant positive
correlation between the two techniques. This, combined with the
finding that application of the 0-to-7 point scale to randomly
matched transcripts and targets (blind-judging method) yielded
chance results, established that application of the 0-to-7 point
scale provided a reliable, objective measure of RV quality.
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0-to-3 Point Accuracy Rating Scale
The FY 1984 SRI Evaluation project further refined RV evaluation
procedures by developing the 0-to-3 Point Accuracy Rating
Scale. This was used to provide a "bottom-line" assessment of
the accuracy/quality of individual elements in a transcript, or
of the transcript as a whole. 0 was considered a "miss",
progressing through some correspondence (1), good correspondence
(2), and excellent correspondence (3). While this reduced the
number of factors needed to determine a. viewer's accuracy based
on objective measures, it still did not meet the criteria far
scientific standards.
Princeton Evaluation Procedure (PEP)
The PEP was based on comparing independently valid
quantitatively-defined target information with similarly
quantitatively-defined response information. The definition of
a particular target site was contained in the yes/no answers to
a set of questions (30) called descriptors. The only target
information to be considered for analysis was completely
contained in the yes/no answers. A binary number (30 bits for
PEP) was constructed for the target and the response descriptor
respectively. YES = binary "1" and NO = binary "0". The
resulting two 30-bit binary numbers were than compared by a
variety of mathematical techniques to form a score for the
specific RV session. For a series of RV sessions, a
quantitative assessment was made by comparing a given response
(matched to its corresponding target site) against the scores
computed by matching the response to all other targets used in
the series. There were four basic problems with the PEP system:
Bit descriptors were not appropriate for the training
environment.
PEP was not interfaced to a standard data base management
system.
Cross-target scoring was not sensitive to intelligence
requirements.
Cross-target scaring was not appropriate for a training
environment.
This led to the the development of the SRI Evaluation Procedure.
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SRI Evaluation Procedure {SEP)
As in the PEP, the SRI Evaluation Procedure quantified the
target material into binary numbers corresponding to yes/no
answers to a set of descriptors. Descriptor lists and coding
techniques were devised far each RV respanse for analysis.
However, it modified the PEP by using two different types of
analysis -- the target-pool-dependent analysis and the
target-pool-independent analysis. The target-pool-dependent
analysis measured the uniqueness of the target/respanse match
compared with the remainder of the target pool. The
target-pool-independent analysis measured the accuracy and
reliability of a single RV response matched only against the
target material used in the session. Both methods of analysis
met the need for a system scientifically measuring RV ability
and accuracy, but they did not address the real world of
operational intelligence collection.
Intelligence Ratin s
'This system rates 6_descriptors_ ranging from major gestalt to
;particular site relevant information on a scale of 0 to 3, 0
representing little correspondence to the site and 3
.representing excellent correspondence to the site. Unknown and
non-applicable factors are also considered, but not scored.
Tnformation perceived by the viewer is then rated for overall
intelligence utility, ranging from no utility to very useful, or
in some instances, indeterminable at the time of analysis. This
procedure has not been extensively applied because there have
been relatively few operational taskings since it's development.
'Phe next milestone will be the development of a data base
management system that will provide the following: ~-
Storage of operational RV session evaluations.
Analytic information concerning RV effectiveness when
targeted against a variety of intelligence collection tasks.
Identification of reliable RV sources for each collection
requirement.
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RV Intelligence Utility Assessment
~.. (S/SK/WNINTEL) The RV Intelligence Utility Assessment
will be expected to provide us with data which can then be
manipulated to provide information on;
a. Which categories of targets lend the~Tiselves best to
remote viewing intelligence collection.
b. The accuracy of each RV source.
c. The accuracy, dependability, and saleability of the
RV process in the intelligence collection arena.
2. (S/SK/WNINTEL) In order to properly assess the results
of the RV Intelligence Utility Package, we must first establish
a database which will track specific items of crucial
interest. (See Fig. 1) These include, but are not limited to:
a. Intelligence Utility Function and Production
codes.: Target categories which have been selected for
examination by remote viewing.
b. Specific sub category of. taskin Specific
category of interest to the RV process: target location,
specific details, presence/absence of person/thing at site, etc.
c. Job number and jab numbers of related tasking: For
filing, reporting, and data management purposes.
d. Source ID (number or code): Tracking the results of
each source will not only indicate the personal abilities of
each source, but will allow a diagnosis of that source's
tendencies towards greater accuracy with differing target types.
e. Date and Time of session: Recent ELF studies
indicate that there is a positive correlation between sunspot
HANDLE VIA SKEET CHANNELS ONLY
SPECIAL ACCESS REQUIRED
WARNING NOTICE: SENSITIVE CLASSIFIED BY: DIA/DT
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND DECLASSIFY ON: OADR
METHODS INVOLVED
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activity and dependability of RV collected information.
Positive prediction of best RV session times will allow for the
most efficient planning of work schedules.
f. Session number within a tasked series: Since RV
results are statistical in nature, more than one Source and more
than one session is run against each task. This field will
allow for more refined accuracy in analysis,
g. General and specific tasking: A short explanation
of tasked activity.
h. List of information known at beginning of RV work:
In order to allow an assessment of the necessary information
requirements to be made of future tasking agencies.
i. List of information generated during RV session: A
list of the main information items returned to the tasking
agency.
e. Accuracy of results: An assessment of the accuracy
of generated information, as made by the tasking agency.
,a.- g. Value of results: An assessment of the intelligence
value of the generated information, as made by the t_as_king
a enc Anal sis of this factor will
g y. y provide the only reliable
means of predicting the efficiency and usefulness to future
tasking agencies. It will be the only accurate vehicle for
'generating credibility in and saleability of our product.
3. (S/SK/WNINTEL) Once the data base has grown to
sufficient proportion to have statistically analytic value,
questions which are statistical in nature and data-oriented can
be tasked and answered. An example of these questions is
presented in Fig. 2, below.
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Tasking data:
Funr_tio
n code:
k~GT
rTar=-~tir~r; information)
Prod. c
ode
2630
(Tnt~~rnat?1 terroriJm)
Specifi
c cat.:
~
Location
(search problem}
Job num
ber
86-062
Related
jobs
86-078
86-112
Session
data:
Source
ID
132
(Ft~coc3ecl for :~-,ect~iri.t~~j
Date
860312
Secs. number .
Tasking/site data:
General task
Specific task:
Given
by tasker
1302 hrs
003
RV hostage situation
Hostage location EEI
State of health
Hostage name
Hostage DOR
Hostage photo
(7n~orm~ti.on provided
t:y tasking agency)
Results Alive as of 860312 (Tn`ormation prc~~Jided
from RV Well-fed to tasking aaenc:;y)
Desert town
Radio station antenna to west
Airport to east
Evaluation of session:
Accuracy 3
Value 2
(Assessment made by
tasking agency)
SECRET
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~_... . ~?- l _ _
SUiV STREAK OP`s/T~NG OBJECTIVES
JANUARY 1.9$6 -- ~IANUARY ~ 9S8
OPERATIONS
900 SESSIONS#{~~ SOURCES)
UTILITY ASSESSMENT
80% (720>
COLLECTIQN
. 20% (18'0 )
TRAINIiVG
x+50 SESSIONS {2 TRAINEES)
SI - SIII
66% (300)
SIV - SVI
33% (150)
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SUN S1REA~; OPERATION PLANNING
JANUARY I~~6 -- JANUARY jy~~
GIVEN: .l, I-~)UR TtAINEp SOURCES.
2 , EACH SOIiRCF CAPABLE OF 'OI NG FOUR ~.ESS IGfJS ~'ErZ
'WEEK Wt)RK I NG A TWO WEEK ON/ONE WEEK OFF PATTERN ,
CAPABILIIY: 530 SESSIONS PER YEAR,
-15% FOR LEAVES, SICKNESS, AND PERSONAL APPOINTMENTS,
SESSIONS PER YEAR,
TW 0 YEAR PLAN: 90U SESSIONS
80% OF CAPABILITY DEVOTED TO UTILITY ASSESSMENT,
20% OF CAPABILITY FOR G}Ri AND RESPONSE TO
COLLECTIOi'~ REQUIREMENTS,
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