WHAT IF THE SOVIETS ARE DRIVEN BY FEAR?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00789R000100160007-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 1998
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: May 31, 1984
• Content Type: NSPR

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO0100160007-7
What if the Soviets Are Driven by Fear?
What are the Russians up to? The Econ-
omist of London concludes that the Soviets
have gone into grumpy hibernation at least
through the Chernenko era, White House
aides say the Soviets are out to defeat
President Reagan and some alarmists of
both parties fear we are headed for war,
cold or hot.
The evidence that the Soviets are up to
something is overwhelming. In the past six
months they have walked out of Geneva
talks on strategic and intermediate-range
Viewpoint
by Morton M. Kondracke
missiles,, pulled out of the Los Angeles
Olympics and canceled a high-level diplo-
matic mission to China.
They have carried out large-scale naval
maneuvers in the Caribbean and North At-
lantic and have launched a major new of=
fensive in Afghanistan that included un-
precedented carpet-bombing of the Panj-
shir valley. They have installed new inter-
mediate-range missiles in Eastern Europe
and have moved more of their strategic-
,missile submarines near American coast-
lines.
The Soviets have continued their rear-
mament of Syria, sent their defense minis-
ter and 66 senior generals and admirals to
conclude a multibillion-dollar arms deal
with India and have closed another sale,
reportedly valued at $2.5 billion, with
Iraq.
A Soviet-built MiG fired at a U.S. heli-
copter that strayed over the Czech border.
The Soviets also have restricted civilian
air corridors into West Berlin. And on two
occasions, Soviet ships have bumped
against U.S. naval vessels.
II Internally, the Soviets have cracked
down on dissidents, including physicist An-
drei Sakharov and his wife, reduced Jew-
ish emigration and restricted mail and
phone communications with the West.
All the while, they have taken every
possible opportunity to denounce the Rea-
gan administration and blame it for the
breakdown of East-West relations.
Konstantin Chernenko on April 8 specif-
ically denied that Soviet policy was di-
rected toward the U.S. presidential elec-
tion, but Soviet meddling in West German
elections last year provides a precedent for
disbelieving him.
If the Sotiets are playing American pol-
itics, they are doing so just as badly as
they did irk Germany, and they are likely to
help reelect President Reagan much as
they helped install the Christian Demo-
crats. Mr. Reagan will be only too happy
to wrap,*himself in the flag, declare that
Moscow'(in addition to Havana, Managua
and the Ayatollah) is against him and ask,
the electorate whom they prefer-them oi