FERMENT SEEN IN SOVIET POLICY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00789R000100160006-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: June 21, 1984
• Content Type: NSPR

Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R000100160006-8
p THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
30 Thursday, June 21, 1984
Ferment Seen in Soviet Policy
By DAVID IGNATIUS
Staff Reporter of TilF: WALL STRE FIT JUU RNAL
WASHINGTON-If Soviet policy seems
confused to Western observers these days,
there may be a simple reason: it is con-
fused.
Senior Reagan administration officials
believe the Soviet leadership is in the
midst of an unusual internal debate over
foreign and domestic policies, in which
some Soviet officials are privately criticiz-
ing their hard-line superiors. In the Ameri-
can view, tlnS-Soviet debate offers new op-
portunities and riskrfor the U.S. in a pe-
riod of frosty superpower relations.
The latest example of Soviet uncer-
tainty, U.S. officials argue, is the Krem-
lin's treatment of President Reagan's re-
cent remarks about a summit meeting
with Soviet leader Konstantin Chernenko.
Moscow finally got around this week to re-
porting in the Soviet news media about Mr.
Reagan's offer last Thursday of a summit,
characterizing it as election-year rhetoric.
But administration officials say the Krem-
lin still hasn't taken a clear position on
whether it favors a summit and what
should be discussed.
"There seems to be a fascinating uncer-
tainty in the Soviet elite right now," says a
administration official who
deals with Soviet affairs. He believes that,
on
the summit issue, the Soviets "don't
want to close off any option" and are
"wary of denouncing" a meeting and thus
adding to their current international Isola
lion
.
high-ranking But as administration officials read the ev-
U.S. intelligence about what goes on in
side the Kremlin is always murky at best.
idence, the current debate pits the hard-
line views of Soviet Foreign Minister An
dreg Gromyko against more pragmatic ar-
guments advanced by officials who deal
primarily with economic policy
, such as
Politburo members Mikhail Gorbachev
and Nikolay Tikhanov.
The Gromyko group
seems to be argu-
that the Reagan administration is fun
ing anti-Soviet and can't be trusted
damentally
under any
The other fac-
to be taking a more cautious
line, arguing
that the Soviet Union needs
Western technology
and modern manage
meat for
its economy, and that it makes
tion appears to a propagandistic Ra^agan adminis-
sense
to keep channels open to the U.S.-
even
tration.
There is a sharper d to o
over eco
nomic
policy. Some senit ynviet econo
mists, perhaps with suppo :rom Mr. Gor-
cials, symbolized these days by Politburo
member Grigoriy Romanov, insist that re-
form will weaken the Communist Party's
political power and argue that the best eco-
nomic medicine is to crack the whip and
maintain discipline.
Presiding over this contentious collec-
tive leadership is Mr. Chernenko. U.S. offi-
cials describe him as a weak leader, a
"staff man" and "appointments secre-
tary," who succeeded Yuri Andropov this
year on the condiljon that he would allow
unusual autonomy to'his"fellow politburo
members, such as Mr. Gromyko and Mr.
Gorbachev, in their areas of expertise.
The Reagan administration may be
overestimating the degree of friction in the
the U.S.S.R. is
run by a gaggle, rather
than a tightly knit
body."
was telling American officials early this
year that the Soviets would come to the
Olympics; suddenly, the policy switched.
Administration officials also note that the
Soviets seemed eager to discuss dead-
locked arms-control issues with former na-
tional security adviser Brent Scowcroft
and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
David Jones, but when they arrived in
Moscow last March for confidential discus-
sions, they were rebuffed by top Soviet of-
ficials.
-Politburo portfolios. Two younger Po-
litburo members who appear to be rivals
to succeed Mr. Chernenko, 53-year-old Mr.
Gorbachev and 61-year-old Mr. Romanov,
recently have gained added responsibility.
U.S. officials believe that Mr. Gorbachev,
as the senior member of the party secre-
tariat on the Politburo after Mr. Cher-
nenko, is now the No. 2 party leader, with
.
Kremlin and the extent of Moscow's for
intriguing, U.S. officials say, is that no sin
eign and domestic problems. U.S. officials
gle member of the Politburo appears t
'may also be mistaken if they assume the
have taken control of the most importan
Soviets will agree soon to real improve
portfolio of all-the responsibility for run
ments in superpower relations, such as a
ning the party's "organizational work,"
summit meeting. which confers
enormous patronag
One Soviet expert at the State Depart-
power.
ment argues, for example, that the roots of
-Military. U.S. officials are studyin
the current hard-line policy go back to No
an interview by Soviet Chief of Staff Niko
vember 1982, when Leonid Brezhnev was
lai Ogarkov that appears last month in th
still the Soviet leader; the Kremlin isn't
military newspaper Red Star. ~ViarshalI
likely to reverse this policy quickly, he
e surprising comments,
maintains. This official also contends that
Including a sta
policy conflict in the Kremlin is the rule, n` jurthei
clear forces
rather than the exception.
sense
becoming e&S; a call for
But there are some intriguing signs of re
uncertainty and friction in the kremlin `
deep strike'` non aide weao ns U.S.
these days. Administration officials cite officials
believe he was suggesting the
the following examples:
need for reform in Soviet military doctrine
-Sniping and rumor-mongering. In re
and lobbying for more spending on high-
cent conversations with Westerners, So
tech weaponry.
viets have criticized Mr. Gromyko and Mr. Analysts in and out of the Reagan ad
-
Chernenko. Some of these comments seem
ministration disagree about how to read
to reflect rumor-mongering by the KGB, these tea leaves,
and about whether they
the Soviet security and intelligence force,
imply a gradual softening of Soviet policy
.S. But most Soviet experts
but U.S. officials believe they may signal a toward the U.S. real debate within the Soviet leadership. seem convinced
that the Kremlin-after
"Russians all over the place-official and months of strident
bluster toward the
semiofficial-are now talking about politics U.S.-is now on what one analyst calls "a
in the Kremlin more openly than they have
sticky wicket."
in years," says one senior administration "You have
a situation emerging where
official. He notes, for example, that some the U.S.S.R.
is run by a gaggle, rather
officials of the Soviet Foreign Ministry
than a tightly-knit body, and what you're
have suggested that Mr. Gromyko may be
getting is a more dissonant information
excessively hard-line. flow
flow," says one State Department offi-
-The March Switch. Many U.S. officials cial.
believe something happened in March that Adds a top Soviet expert for several re-
bachev, contend that the viet economy led to a hardenin of S t cent U.S. ad s r t'o "Soviet policy is
b di>> 4aR -e#ige- 0O$O8 eyGl thRMU RA?ct}Otl~ i in re seeing now is
ages geater authority. Bi hard-line offi- head of the Soviet Olympic Committee, the tip of the iceberg."
growing involvement in foreign affairs;
Mr. Romanov, meanwhile, appears to have
taken control of "administrative organs"-
such as tho KGB, the police and the
courts-as well as defense industry
What's
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