TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES

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CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5
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RIFPUB
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S
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34
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November 4, 2016
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September 5, 2003
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1
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December 1, 1984
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REPORT
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Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-UGRSTR001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3 Final Report December 1984 TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES (U) By: HAROLD E. PUTHOFF EDWIN C. MAY DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY USAINSCOM FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND 20755 Attention: LT. COL. BRIAN BUZBY WARNING NOTICE CENTER LANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM. RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS. CATEGORY 3 333 Ravenswood Avenue Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. (415) 326-6200 Cable: SRI INTL MPK TW X : 910-373-2046 ~~jj Approved For Release 2003/09/10: CIA-AI6 "C.u0318002 Wt%NE NATIONALS pproved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-FqU~'-Q!$k001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3 Final Report Covering the Period 15 November 1983 to 15 December 1984 TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES (U) DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY USAI NSCOM FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND 20755 WARNING NOTICE CENTER LANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM. RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS. CATEGORY 3 ROBERT S. LEONARD, Director Radio Physics Laboratory DAVID D. ELLIOTT, Vice President Research and Analysis Division CLASSIFIED BY: CENTER LANE Security Classification Guide Dated 1 March 1983 DECLASSIFY ON: OADR 12 Copy No . .............. This document consists of 33 pages. 941/CL-0026 NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS SECRET CENTER LANE-3 333 Ravenswood Avenue ? Menlo Park, California 94025 ? U.S.A. Approv& ~o e? e 2 O9ffiI:16T Ft6096-6~h8F d81 dbig%O1-5 Approved For Release 20.S (RE RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN CONTENTS (U) (U) LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv (U) LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv I (U) OBJECTIVE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 II (U) INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 A. (U) General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 B. (U) Search Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 III (U) METHOD OF APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 A. (U) Continuum Search--Statistical Approach . . . . . . . . . . 4 B. (U) Discrete Search--Statistical Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 V (U) EXPERIMENTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 A. (U) General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 B. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Bug" Search (Continuum). . . . _ . . 9 1. (U) Condition I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2. (U) Condition II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 C. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent" Search, Facility Level (Continuum) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent"/Facility Search (Continuum). . . 12 E. (U) Binary Search (Discrete/Continuum) . . . . . . . . . _ . . 13 F. (U) Computer Assisted Search (CAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1. (U) Basic Investigation (Simulation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2. (U) Location of Real-World Targets (Known) . . . . . . . . . 22 SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 2051'1 URDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN 3. (U) CAS Against Real Targets (Application) . . . . . . . . . 23 G. (S/NF/CL-3) Client-Controlled Long-Distance Test of "Agent/ Building Search, Facility Level (Continuum). . . . . . . . . . . 24 1. (U) Long-Distance "Agent" Search . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. (U) Long-Distance "Building" Search . . . . . . . . . . . 26 V (U) Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 A. (U) Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 B. (U) Focus of Investigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 C. (U) Recommendations for Follow-On Actions. . . . . . . . . . 29 SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED 2 Binary Approach to Target Location 3 Probability of Error, PE, with and without Use of a Simple 5-Bit Majority-Vote Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4 Random Binary Task Performance, Percipient #642. . . . . . . . . . . . 19 5 Random Binary Task Performance, Percipient #730. . . _ . . _ . . . . . 20 6 Choice Histogram for Percipients 531 and 859 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 1 Table of Mean Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 HP 41-C Program: Cumulative Binomial Distribution . . . . . _ . . _ . . 8 3 HP 41-C Calculator Program for 5-Bit Majority Vote Code . . . . . . . . . 17 4 Binary Data Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 5 Results of Basic Investigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 6 Long-Distance "Agent" Search: Client-Determined Target Sites . _ . . . _ . 25 UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 204MR(EiIRDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN I OBJECTIVE (U) (S/NF/CL-3) The objective of this effort at SRI International is to investigate a particular aspect of psychoenergetic phenomena called Target Search. This search technique is designed to determine the location of objects, individuals, and facilities where the potential target area can range from room- to global-sized dimensions. SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 20SUR CIA-RDP96-00788RO01800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN II INTRODUCTION (U) (S/NF/CL-3) A continuing requirement in military operations is determining the location of tactical and strategic military targets of interest, whose positions are not known or are known only approximately. Examples range from the location of (1) a "bug" in a secure facility, (2) a command post in a tactical situation or (3) a submarine in a strategic problem. (S/NF/CL-3) A potential match to the above requirement is a claimed ability in the broad field of psychoenergetic functioning; namely, the ability to search for and locate water, oil, minerals, objects, individuals, sites of archaeological significance, and so forth. This ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic ability "remote viewing," in the following manner. In remote viewing, the RVer is given location information (coordinates, "beacon" agent, picture), and (RV) asked to provide data on target content (e.g., BW R&D facility); in "search," the RVer is given information on target content, then asked to provide location data (e.g., position on a map). The two functions are thus complimentary to each other. (U) The ability to locate targets is most often referred to as "dowsing" in the Western literature, and "biophysical effect (BPE)" in the Soviet/East Bloc literature. In this report, we shall refer to such techniques simply as "search." Although much of the literature is anecdotal, * attempts to quantify the ability and to determine its mechanisms have been pursued. t * (U) For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see Christopher Bird, The Divining Hand, E. P. Dutton, New York, NY (1979). t (U) See, for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik, beginning 1970, in The American Dowser, the journal of the American Society of Dowsers, (Harvalik is the ex-director of the basic research group of the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories, Fort Belvoir, VA.) SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 2(5'R ECT-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN 2 '%0 (S/NF/CL-3) The goal of the present effort is to research the literature, then perform laboratory experimentation to determine whether, and to what degree, such functioning is a viable candidate for application to intelligence-collection tasks. This includes determining the best methods and efficiencies of various search techniques, and the appropriate statistical analyses for evaluating results. (S/NF/CL-3) Search tasks fall into two broad categories of effort--continuum and discrete. In the "continuum" search category, a target of interest is typically to be located on a continuum area map, such as a topographical map or navigational chart (e.g., for a tank or submarine, respectively). For this category, the target/response distances and circular error probabilities (CEPs) constitute the statistics of interest in evaluation. (S/NF/CL-3) In the "discrete" search category, a target of interest is associated with a discrete number of possibilities (for example, the location of a missile in one of K silos, or the location of an agent in one of K cities). For this category, the appropriate statistic of interest in the evaluation of a series of location attempts is a comparison against the simple binomial statistic of the probability of obtaining an observed R hits in N trials, by chance. SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED III METHOD OF APPROACH (U) A. (U) Continuum Search--Statistical Approach (U) The first-order requirement in carrying out a continuum-search effort is to determine an appropriate method of evaluation. The approach chosen here is a modification of a procedure developed by Dean Radin at Bell Laboratories for evaluating geometric-distance scores in a perceptual task. * In this approach, one begins by assuming that the target area of interest is in the form of a square (a useful, but not necessary, requirement). A grid system is then laid down over the square in the form of an n x n matrix (20 X 20, say), to yield n2 separate grid elements (400 for a 20 x 20 grid, for example). Using this grid as an approximation to a continuum, one can then calculate exactly the a priori chance distribution that any given search response would lie at any given distance from a particular target location. From this, an evaluation can be made on the quality of response (see Figure 1). (U) In the 20,X 20 case, for a target square not on the edge, there is one chance in 400 of the searcher landing directly on the target square by chance, four chances in 400 of being one unit away (above, below, and to the sides), four chances of being x/2-units away, and so forth. Counting out from any particular target square, the inhibition of responses beyond the boundary of the overall square (at certain distances in certain directions) is easily taken into account in the counting process. Thus, an exact calculation can be made on the basis of straightforward counting (taking into account edge effects) for the probabilities of all possible target/response pair distances. One result of these calculations for the 20 X 20 case (taken as standard) is Table 1, in which the mean distance from each given target square to all possible response squares in the grid is displayed. As a reference, the grand mean chance expectation (MCE) target response pair distance in the 20 X 20 grid is 10.41 units. *(U) Radin, D., "Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task," Research in Parapsychology 1981, pp. 163-164, Scarecrow Press, Inc., Metuchen, NJ (1982). UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Releage$0~0~(1~~jlLTL3P6-007888001800260001-5 Na :?. %`?3: r?' %Yo?::::, ? .:?:.s.,..?; s:.:,.:#:.Y%;r,:::~%;?:.'s#;>..:t?:?+::,::t?~:#~:t::t~ r;:~i:~:'t':t f..'?.#S,:~c::S:Ev h?`f.:'? {:~ fr.:E;x. {:,::: f:'~:4:~::.:.: ?5::?,f:;:{;`? :::::::#; ~.,?.S:'?< Prob (d) FIGURE 1 (U) SEARCH MATRIX (U) Thus, if the search area of interest is 20 km x 20 km, the MCE distance for random attempts to locate a random target is 10.41 km. B. (U) Discrete Search--Statistical Approach (U) In the discrete search case (one choice from among K possibilities), the appropriate evaluation statistic is the cumulative binomial distribution. The parameters are as follows. (U) We define a trial as a single attempt to pinpoint a target as being at one of K possible target locations. Let p = 1/K be the probability of a chance hit in the location attempt in a single trial, and q = 1 - p be the probability of a chance failure in a single trial. UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Rele0 z0Q310~(1?:?MQp,~6-00788RO01800260001-5 (Beginning Row 1, left to right, square (1,1), (1,2)..., through upper left-hand quadrant of 20 x 20 matrix) 14.65585, 14.04415, 13.48960, 12.99671, 12.56888, 12.20876, 11.91840, 11.69934, 11.55270, 11.47920, 14.04415, 13.40802, 12.83167, 12.31976, 11.87571, 11.50216, 11.20110, 10.97406, 10.82211, 10.74596, 13.48960, 12.83167, 12.23547, 11.70606, 11.24699, 10.86094, 10.54992, 10.31541, 10.15851, 10.07989, 12.99671, 12.31976, 11.70606, 11.16104, 10.68848, 10.29114, 9.97108, 9.72981, 9.56839, 9.48751, 12.56888, 11.87571, 11.24699, 10.68848, 10.20417, 9.79695, 9.46895, 9.22171, 9.05630, 8.97343, 12.20876, 11.50216, 10.86094, 10.29114, 9.79695, 9.38139, 9.04665, 8.79433, 8.62554, 8.54097, 11.91840, 11.20110, 10.54992, 9.97108, 9.46895, 9.04665, 8.70647, 8.45003, 8.27849, 8.19254, 11.69934, 10.97406, 10.31541, 9.72981, 9.22171, 8.79433, 8.45003, 8.19049, 8.01685, 7.92986, 11.55270, 10.82211, 10.15851, 9.56839, 9.05630, 8.62554, 8.27849, 8.01685, 7.84182, 7.75412, 11.47920, 10.74596, 10.07989, 9.48751, 8.97343, 8.54097, 8.19254, 7.92986, 7.75412, 7.66607 (U) In a series of location attempts, the important statistic is the probability of obtaining at least R hits in N trials, by chance, because this distribution establishes the basis against which the efficiency of the search method must be compared. This statistic is given exactly by the cumulative binomial (Bernoulli) distribution. UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 UNCLASSIFIED (U) Probability of at least N! R hits in N trials - ,=R i! (N-i)! pi qN-i (1) Although probabilities are listed for several representative values in published tables, * it is perhaps most convenient to calculate them directly with the aid of a standard programmable calculator. A program for the Hewlett-Packard HP 41-C series calculator is provided for convenience as Table 2. (U) To complete discussion of the binomial distribution, we note that the mean number of hits expected by chance in N trials is ? = Np, while the standard deviation (measure of expected spread about the mean) is given by a = Npq (U) Throughout the statistical evaluations, whether for continuum or discrete search, we shall adhere to the standard convention that a result obtained in testing can be interpreted as evidence for psychoenergetic access if the probability of that result occurring by chance is less than p = 0.05. * (U) Tables of Cumulative Binomial Probability Distribution, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA (1955). UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788RO01800260001-5 Approved For Releas I I -00788R001800260001-5 2003/09/10 S F E D (U) HP 41-C PROGRAM: CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 01+LEL "CUM SIN" 02 SCI 3 03 0 04 3TO 01 0S "A PRIORI P?" 06 PROMPT 07 3TO 02 08 LN 09 STO 03 10 RCL 02 11 CHS 12 1 13 + 14 STO 04 15 LN 16 S T 0 0` 17 "NR HITS?" 18 PROMPT 19 3TO 06 20 "HR TRIALS?" 21 PROMPT 22 STO 07 23+LBL 08 24 RCL 07 25 RCL 06 27 STO 09 28 RCL 05 254 * 30 RCL 07, 31 RCL 06 32 33 + 34 STO 10 35 1 36 STO 11 37 RCL 07 38 3TO 12 39 RCL 06 40 RCL 09 41 X>Y? 42 GTO 15 43 X(>Y 44+LBL 15 45 RDN 4r5 X=0? 47 GTO 17 48 3TO 14 49+LEL 16 50 RCL 12 51 RCL 14 52 53 RCL 11 55Ti!11 56 1 57 ST- 12 58 1 59 3T- 14 60 RCL 14 61 X=0? 62 GTO 17 63 GTO 16 64+LBL 17 65 RCL 11 66 LN 67 RCL 10 68 + 69 EtX 70 ST+ 01 71 RCL 01 72 TONE 0 73 PSE 74 1 75 ST+ 06 76 RCL 06 r'r' 1 78 - 79 RC' -- 80 X>'i'? 81 GTO 08 82 RCL 01 83 "P, R OR MORE=" 84 PRCL X 85 AVIEWi 86 BEEP 87 END UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 20(SUR EA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN IV EXPERIMENTAL EFFORT (U) (U) In pursuing the search task, SRI engaged several remote viewers (RVers) ranging from (1) volunteer subjects, (2) experienced SRI RVers, through (3) well-known professional "dowsers" (who were contacted through the American Society of Dowsers). In somewhat extensive work with the latter, every effort was made to determine whether whatever skills could be demonstrated might be of a transferable nature. B. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Bug" Search (Continuum) (S/NF/CL/3) Described here is a test of whether a search procedure involving attempts to locate small objects in a room (e.g., a "bug") would be successful. The target location was a large conference room in which a >1400 sq. ft. area (37.5 X 37.5 ft) was designated as the potential target area. For each trial, a small hand-size object was chosen (e.g., a calculator) then placed somewhere in the conference room--the location was determined by entry into a random number generator for x-y coordinates on a 20 X 20 unit grid. (U) A total of 50 trials, 25 in each of two conditions (labeled I and II), was carried out with an experienced SRI RVer (#688) as search percipient. The RVer was in the RV chamber on the third floor of the Radio Physics Laboratory (RPL) ; the target area was a locked and guarded, nonoccupied conference room on the ground floor of the RPL. (U) In Condition I, for each trial, an experimenter (El) places an object at a location in the target room (determined by random number generator), then remains outside the target room as a guard. A few minutes later, at a previously-agreed-upon time, Experimenter E2, who is kept blind as to the object's location, has the RVer indicate his assessment of the object's location. The RVer places a mark on a piece of paper containing a single blank square to represent the target room. At the end of the trial, the RVer turns SECRET CENTER LANE-/N Q Approved For Release 2003/09/10 :3CI~RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For ReleUE 4 CAE9p cx- Stpf t?U0788R001800260001-5 (U) his response over to E2, the two of them proceed to the target room to meet El, and they all enter the room to obtain feedback. Following feedback, the response coordinates, obtained by use of a 20 X 20 grid square overlay on the response sheet, are determined, and (along with the target coordinates) are entered into a computer to compare the probability of the observed result against chance. (U) In the 37.5-ft-square target area, the mean chance expectation (MCE) target/response pair distance is 19.5 ft. In the 25 trials taken under Condition I, the target/response pair distances ranged from a maximum of 15.6 ft to a minimum of 2.0 ft, with a mean of 13.5 ft. This result (a 31 percent reduction from MCE) is statistically significant at p = 1.7 X 10-3 . As a second measure of performance, the target/response pair distances were ordered such that there was a trend from larger to smaller distances as the series progressed, providing some evidence of improvement in task performance over time, but the trend was not statistically significant. (U) The Condition I and Condition II series were carried out in an identical fashion, except that in Condition II, only one experimenter (El) was involved. Thus, El "hid" the object for each trial. In the 25-trial sequence, the target/response pair distances ranged from a maximum of 37.5 ft to a minimum of 3.75 ft, with a mean of 18.8 ft. This result (a 4 percent reduction MCE) is statistically nonsignificant. In the second measure of perform- ance, however, the target/response pair distances were again ordered from larger to smaller as the series progressed, but, in this case, the trend was statistically significant (p < 0.05). Thus, evidence of improvement in task performance over time was established. (U) With regard to the difference in RVer performance between Conditions I and II (which, a one-way analysis of variance shows to be significant*), one can simply note the difference in the two conditions. Technically speaking, the RVer's task was identical in the two cases--namely, to determine the location of a randomly-placed object in a target room. The psychology differed somewhat, however, in that during the less successful series (Condition II), one experimenter hiding an object could be said to have more of a "game" *(U) df1 = 1, df2 = 48, F = 4.94; p= 0.031. UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 (U) Approved For Release 205"R ER-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN aspect to it than in Condition I, where the. task is structured more along application lines of an experimenter and RVer searching for an object placed by a third party. Another difference is that the second series followed the first; the trend may simply reflect the "decline" effect that is typical in the psychoenergetics field when experimentation becomes a repetitive routine. Further work along these lines would be required to clarify this particular facet. Nonetheless, with both sets of data combined, the overall result, a mean target/response pair distance of 16.2 ft (17 percent reduction of MCE), is statistically significant at p = 0.01. Thus, the experimental series as a whole indicates that the application of psychoenergetic search techniques, although not yet developed to high accuracy, can augment other techniques in locating small target objects in a remote, otherwise inaccessible, space. C. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent" Search, Facility Level (Continuum) (U) The RVer who participated in the above experiment was asked to take part in a second experiment of a similar nature. In the second case, the target was to be a person, located somewhere on the grounds of the SRI 70-acre complex. The RVer entered the RV chamber on the third floor of the RPL, then an experimenter was sent to a random location, determined by entry into a random number generator for x-y coordinates on a 20 x 20 unit grid. (U) Forty trials were carried out--20 in each of two conditions; the second condition differed from the first only in that the RVer had in his possession a sample of hair from the individual to be targeted (to test the so-called "witness" concept, part of the lore in dowsing studies). (U) The outcome of this experiment was that neither series yielded results differing from chance expectation, nor was there any significant difference between the two conditions. Although the RVer expressed subjective differences in attempting to locate a person (as opposed to an object), no conclusions as to the difference between the two Experiments B and C* could be drawn. * (U) Defined in Subsections B and C of this chapter and hereafter referred to as Experiments B and C. SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Release 20&K R EIT-RDP96-00788RO01800260001-5 CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN D. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent"/Facility Search (Continuum) (S/NF/CL-3) A series of trials was undertaken with a special RVer, recommended by the American Society of Dowsers, who responded to an invitation to participate in the SRI search program (#198). An initial exploratory series of eight trials was carried out as in Experiment B, Condition I, (simulation of "bug" search, with a calculator as target object). The results were not beyond chance expectation. Debriefing of the RVer revealed a preference for tasks that involved people, as in locating people, or places inhabited by people. Therefore, a second exploratory series of fifteen trials was performed, the first ten of which repeated the same experiment, but with an individual replacing the object. For the remaining five trials, the target area in which the individual was located was expanded to the SRI complex as in Experiment C above. The overall result in this series also was not beyond chance expectation, but the target/response pair distances were ordered such that there was a trend from larger to smaller distances as the series progressed, which began to approach statistical significance (p = 0.07). Therefore, a more extensive series was planned in which "peopled" locations were to be the targets. (U) For this series, the target area was a > 20 sq. km area (4.8 km x 4.8 km). The viewer was provided a satellite photograph of the area with a 20 x 20 unit grid overlay. In order to investigate potential differences in targeting strategies, a targeting protocol was prepared for the series in which, on an intermixed basis, the RVer was targeted on being (1) given a photograph of the site, e.g., of a house, (2) told that an experimenter known to the RVer was at a site, (3) told the name of the site (e.g., Stacey's Bookstore). Twenty-one trials were carried out under this protocol: six under targeting method (1), six under targeting method (2), and nine under targeting method (3). (U) In the 4.8-km-square area, the mean chance expectation distance is 2.5 km. In the 21-trial sequence, the target/response pair distances ranged from a maximum of 3.36 km to a minimum of 0.34 km, with a mean of 1.55 km. This result (a 38 percent reduction from MCE) is statistically significant at p = 1.1 x 10-3. (U) With regard to the difference in RVer performance between targeting conditions, the mean target/response pair distance was least for the photo-targeting condition (1), median for the person-targeting condition (2), and maximum for the name-targeting condition (3)--1.15 km, 1.58 km, and 1.80 km respectively. One-way analysis of variance SECRET CENTER LANE-3/NOFORN Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Releas Q`09j1 t ?l Eb00788R001800260001-5 U14 ILY (U) shows, however, that the differences between the conditions were not statistically significant.* Furthermore, no statistically-significant ordering of the target/response distances was observed as the series progressed, indicating a level performance throughout the series. E. (U) Binary Search (Discrete/Continuum) (U) A "zeroing-in" approach that suggests itself is a sequential method whereby the RVer makes a series of binary decisions to close in, step-by-step, on the target. If one begins with a square map, for example, the sequence of questions would be of the form "left or right half," followed by "upper or lower half" of the remaining half, followed again by "left or right half" of the remaining square, and so forth, as indicated in Figure 2. After n binary decisions, the designated target area would be narrowed down to 1/2 nth of the original area (1/2, 1/4, 1/16, 1/32, ...). Assuming a flawless sequence of binary decisions, one could pinpoint a target location relatively quickly by this means. (U) The statistics of binary (p = 1/2) sorting by psychoenergetic means are relatively well known, and on the order of a few percent above chance--this is statistically significant, but is of little use in applications. One is led naturally to consideration of the use of redundancy in one form or another (e.g., repetitive "guessing"), in order to amplify the small statistical advantage available into an overall higher-accuracy result for the basic binary process. As part of the binary-approach study, we investigated implementation of the redundancy concept, reduced to practice in the form of a hand-held calculator programmed for statistical averaging of (psi) inputs by an RVer. (U) The targets for the series described here are the outcomes (black/redt in roulette wheel spins) that are being generated in a double-blind fashion by an experimenter. The task is thus one of determining whether a roulette ball is located in a red or a black bin. As the RVer attempts to identify the ball's location, several responses are entered into a calculator for statistical averaging as described below. *(U) dfl = 2, df2 = 18, F = 1.43; p < 0.26. t (U) Green 0 and 00 are, for the purposes of this study, taken to correspond to red and black, respectively. UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2003/09/10 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001800260001-5 Approved For Releagg 2O tOW1~ ~ ~Q,Po6-00788RO01800260001-5 'hY::r~;''''::