TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES

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• Collection: STARGATE
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• Document Page Count: 34
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 1, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Final Report December 1984
TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES (U)
By: HAROLD E. PUTHOFF EDWIN C. MAY
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
USAINSCOM
FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND 20755
Attention: LT. COL. BRIAN BUZBY
WARNING NOTICE
CENTER LANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM.
RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS.
CATEGORY 3
333 Ravenswood Avenue
Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A.
[phone]
Cable: SRI INTL MPK
TW X : 910-373-2046 ~~jj
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CENTER LANE-3
Final Report
Covering the Period 15 November 1983 to 15 December 1984
TARGET SEARCH TECHNIQUES (U)
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
USAI NSCOM
FORT GEORGE G. MEADE, MARYLAND 20755
WARNING NOTICE
CENTER LANE SPECIAL ACCESS PROGRAM.
RESTRICT DISSEMINATION TO THOSE WITH VERIFIED ACCESS.
CATEGORY 3
ROBERT S. LEONARD, Director
Radio Physics Laboratory
DAVID D. ELLIOTT, Vice President
Research and Analysis Division
CLASSIFIED BY: CENTER LANE
Security Classification Guide
Dated 1 March 1983
DECLASSIFY ON: OADR
12
Copy No . ..............
This document consists of 33 pages.
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CONTENTS (U)
(U) LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
(U) LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
I (U) OBJECTIVE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II (U) INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
A. (U) General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
B. (U) Search Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
III (U) METHOD OF APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A. (U) Continuum Search--Statistical Approach . . . . . . . . . . 4
B. (U) Discrete Search--Statistical Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
V (U) EXPERIMENTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
A. (U) General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
B. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Bug" Search (Continuum). . . . _ . . 9
1. (U) Condition I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2. (U) Condition II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
C. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent" Search, Facility Level
(Continuum) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent"/Facility Search (Continuum). . . 12
E. (U) Binary Search (Discrete/Continuum) . . . . . . . . . _ . . 13
F. (U) Computer Assisted Search (CAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1. (U) Basic Investigation (Simulation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2. (U) Location of Real-World Targets (Known) . . . . . . . . . 22
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3. (U) CAS Against Real Targets (Application) . . . . . . . . . 23
G. (S/NF/CL-3) Client-Controlled Long-Distance Test of "Agent/
Building Search, Facility Level (Continuum). . . . . . . . . . . 24
1. (U) Long-Distance "Agent" Search . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2. (U) Long-Distance "Building" Search . . . . . . . . . . . 26
V (U) Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
A. (U) Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
B. (U) Focus of Investigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
C. (U) Recommendations for Follow-On Actions. . . . . . . . . . 29
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2 Binary Approach to Target Location
3 Probability of Error, PE, with and without Use of a Simple 5-Bit
Majority-Vote Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4 Random Binary Task Performance, Percipient #642. . . . . . . . . . . . 19
5 Random Binary Task Performance, Percipient #730. . . _ . . _ . . . . . 20
6 Choice Histogram for Percipients 531 and 859 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1 Table of Mean Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2 HP 41-C Program: Cumulative Binomial Distribution . . . . . _ . . _ . . 8
3 HP 41-C Calculator Program for 5-Bit Majority Vote Code . . . . . . . . . 17
4 Binary Data Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
5 Results of Basic Investigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
6 Long-Distance "Agent" Search: Client-Determined Target Sites . _ . . . _ . 25
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I OBJECTIVE (U)
(S/NF/CL-3) The objective of this effort at SRI International is to investigate a
particular aspect of psychoenergetic phenomena called Target Search. This search technique
is designed to determine the location of objects, individuals, and facilities where the potential
target area can range from room- to global-sized dimensions.
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II INTRODUCTION (U)
(S/NF/CL-3) A continuing requirement in military operations is determining the
location of tactical and strategic military targets of interest, whose positions are not known or
are known only approximately. Examples range from the location of (1) a "bug" in a secure
facility, (2) a command post in a tactical situation or (3) a submarine in a strategic problem.
(S/NF/CL-3) A potential match to the above requirement is a claimed ability in the
broad field of psychoenergetic functioning; namely, the ability to search for and locate water,
oil, minerals, objects, individuals, sites of archaeological significance, and so forth. This
ability can be contrasted to the related psychoenergetic ability "remote viewing," in the
following manner. In remote viewing, the RVer is given location information (coordinates,
"beacon" agent, picture), and (RV) asked to provide data on target content (e.g., BW R&D
facility); in "search," the RVer is given information on target content, then asked to provide
location data (e.g., position on a map). The two functions are thus complimentary to each
other.
(U) The ability to locate targets is most often referred to as "dowsing" in the Western
literature, and "biophysical effect (BPE)" in the Soviet/East Bloc literature. In this report,
we shall refer to such techniques simply as "search." Although much of the literature is
anecdotal, * attempts to quantify the ability and to determine its mechanisms have been
pursued. t
* (U) For the most comprehensive and authoritative survey of the claims for dowsing, see
Christopher Bird, The Divining Hand, E. P. Dutton, New York, NY (1979).
t (U) See, for example, papers published by Z. V. Harvalik, beginning 1970, in The
American Dowser, the journal of the American Society of Dowsers, (Harvalik is the
ex-director of the basic research group of the U.S. Army Engineering Laboratories, Fort
Belvoir, VA.)
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2 '%0
(S/NF/CL-3) The goal of the present effort is to research the literature, then perform
laboratory experimentation to determine whether, and to what degree, such functioning is a
viable candidate for application to intelligence-collection tasks. This includes determining
the best methods and efficiencies of various search techniques, and the appropriate statistical
analyses for evaluating results.
(S/NF/CL-3) Search tasks fall into two broad categories of effort--continuum and
discrete. In the "continuum" search category, a target of interest is typically to be located
on a continuum area map, such as a topographical map or navigational chart (e.g., for a tank
or submarine, respectively). For this category, the target/response distances and circular
error probabilities (CEPs) constitute the statistics of interest in evaluation.
(S/NF/CL-3) In the "discrete" search category, a target of interest is associated with a
discrete number of possibilities (for example, the location of a missile in one of K silos, or
the location of an agent in one of K cities). For this category, the appropriate statistic of
interest in the evaluation of a series of location attempts is a comparison against the simple
binomial statistic of the probability of obtaining an observed R hits in N trials, by chance.
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III METHOD OF APPROACH (U)
A. (U) Continuum Search--Statistical Approach
(U) The first-order requirement in carrying out a continuum-search effort is to
determine an appropriate method of evaluation. The approach chosen here is a modification
of a procedure developed by Dean Radin at Bell Laboratories for evaluating
geometric-distance scores in a perceptual task. * In this approach, one begins by assuming
that the target area of interest is in the form of a square (a useful, but not necessary,
requirement). A grid system is then laid down over the square in the form of an n x n
matrix (20 X 20, say), to yield n2 separate grid elements (400 for a 20 x 20 grid, for
example). Using this grid as an approximation to a continuum, one can then calculate
exactly the a priori chance distribution that any given search response would lie at any given
distance from a particular target location. From this, an evaluation can be made on the
quality of response (see Figure 1).
(U) In the 20,X 20 case, for a target square not on the edge, there is one chance in
400 of the searcher landing directly on the target square by chance, four chances in 400 of
being one unit away (above, below, and to the sides), four chances of being x/2-units away,
and so forth. Counting out from any particular target square, the inhibition of responses
beyond the boundary of the overall square (at certain distances in certain directions) is easily
taken into account in the counting process. Thus, an exact calculation can be made on the
basis of straightforward counting (taking into account edge effects) for the probabilities of all
possible target/response pair distances. One result of these calculations for the 20 X 20 case
(taken as standard) is Table 1, in which the mean distance from each given target square to
all possible response squares in the grid is displayed. As a reference, the grand mean
chance expectation (MCE) target response pair distance in the 20 X 20 grid is 10.41 units.
*(U) Radin, D., "Evaluating Geometric Distance Scores in a Perceptual Task," Research in
Parapsychology 1981, pp. 163-164, Scarecrow Press, Inc., Metuchen, NJ (1982).
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Na
:?. %`?3: r?' %Yo?::::, ? .:?:.s.,..?; s:.:,.:#:.Y%;r,:::~%;?:.'s#;>..:t?:?+::,::t?~:#~:t::t~ r;:~i:~:'t':t f..'?.#S,:~c::S:Ev h?`f.:'? {:~ fr.:E;x. {:,::: f:'~:4:~::.:.: ?5::?,f:;:{;`? :::::::#; ~.,?.S:'?<
Prob (d)
FIGURE 1 (U) SEARCH MATRIX
(U)
Thus, if the search area of interest is 20 km x 20 km, the MCE distance for random
attempts to locate a random target is 10.41 km.
B. (U) Discrete Search--Statistical Approach
(U) In the discrete search case (one choice from among K possibilities), the
appropriate evaluation statistic is the cumulative binomial distribution. The parameters are as
follows.
(U) We define a trial as a single attempt to pinpoint a target as being at one of K
possible target locations. Let p = 1/K be the probability of a chance hit in the location
attempt in a single trial, and q = 1 - p be the probability of a chance failure in a single trial.
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(Beginning Row 1, left to right, square (1,1),
(1,2)...,
through upper left-hand quadrant of 20 x 20
matrix)
14.65585,
14.04415,
13.48960,
12.99671,
12.56888,
12.20876,
11.91840,
11.69934,
11.55270,
11.47920,
14.04415,
13.40802,
12.83167,
12.31976,
11.87571,
11.50216,
11.20110,
10.97406,
10.82211,
10.74596,
13.48960,
12.83167,
12.23547,
11.70606,
11.24699,
10.86094,
10.54992,
10.31541,
10.15851,
10.07989,
12.99671,
12.31976,
11.70606,
11.16104,
10.68848,
10.29114,
9.97108,
9.72981,
9.56839,
9.48751,
12.56888,
11.87571,
11.24699,
10.68848,
10.20417,
9.79695,
9.46895,
9.22171,
9.05630,
8.97343,
12.20876,
11.50216,
10.86094,
10.29114,
9.79695,
9.38139,
9.04665,
8.79433,
8.62554,
8.54097,
11.91840,
11.20110,
10.54992,
9.97108,
9.46895,
9.04665,
8.70647,
8.45003,
8.27849,
8.19254,
11.69934,
10.97406,
10.31541,
9.72981,
9.22171,
8.79433,
8.45003,
8.19049,
8.01685,
7.92986,
11.55270,
10.82211,
10.15851,
9.56839,
9.05630,
8.62554,
8.27849,
8.01685,
7.84182,
7.75412,
11.47920,
10.74596,
10.07989,
9.48751,
8.97343,
8.54097,
8.19254,
7.92986,
7.75412,
7.66607
(U)
In a series of location attempts, the important statistic is the probability of obtaining at least
R hits in N trials, by chance, because this distribution establishes the basis against which the
efficiency of the search method must be compared. This statistic is given exactly by the
cumulative binomial (Bernoulli) distribution.
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(U)
Probability of at least N!
R hits in N trials - ,=R i! (N-i)!
pi qN-i
(1)
Although probabilities are listed for several representative values in published tables, * it is
perhaps most convenient to calculate them directly with the aid of a standard programmable
calculator. A program for the Hewlett-Packard HP 41-C series calculator is provided for
convenience as Table 2.
(U) To complete discussion of the binomial distribution, we note that the mean
number of hits expected by chance in N trials is ? = Np, while the standard deviation
(measure of expected spread about the mean) is given by a = Npq
(U) Throughout the statistical evaluations, whether for continuum or discrete search,
we shall adhere to the standard convention that a result obtained in testing can be interpreted
as evidence for psychoenergetic access if the probability of that result occurring by chance is
less than p = 0.05.
* (U) Tables of Cumulative Binomial Probability Distribution, Harvard University Press,
Cambridge, MA (1955).
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(U) HP 41-C PROGRAM: CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
01+LEL "CUM SIN"
02 SCI 3
03 0
04 3TO 01
0S "A PRIORI P?"
06 PROMPT
07 3TO 02
08 LN
09 STO 03
10 RCL 02
11 CHS
12 1
13 +
14 STO 04
15 LN
16 S T 0 0`
17 "NR HITS?"
18 PROMPT
19 3TO 06
20 "HR TRIALS?"
21 PROMPT
22 STO 07
23+LBL 08
24 RCL 07
25 RCL 06
27 STO 09
28 RCL 05
254 *
30 RCL 07,
31 RCL 06
32
33 +
34 STO 10
35 1
36 STO 11
37 RCL 07
38 3TO 12
39 RCL 06
40 RCL 09
41 X>Y?
42 GTO 15
43 X(>Y
44+LBL 15
45 RDN
4r5 X=0?
47 GTO 17
48 3TO 14
49+LEL 16
50 RCL 12
51 RCL 14
52
53 RCL 11
55Ti!11
56 1
57 ST- 12
58 1
59 3T- 14
60 RCL 14
61 X=0?
62 GTO 17
63 GTO 16
64+LBL 17
65 RCL 11
66 LN
67 RCL 10
68 +
69 EtX
70 ST+ 01
71 RCL 01
72 TONE 0
73 PSE
74 1
75 ST+ 06
76 RCL 06
r'r' 1
78 -
79 RC' --
80 X>'i'?
81 GTO 08
82 RCL 01
83 "P, R OR MORE="
84 PRCL X
85 AVIEWi
86 BEEP
87 END
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IV EXPERIMENTAL EFFORT (U)
(U) In pursuing the search task, SRI engaged several remote viewers (RVers) ranging
from (1) volunteer subjects, (2) experienced SRI RVers, through (3) well-known professional
"dowsers" (who were contacted through the American Society of Dowsers). In somewhat
extensive work with the latter, every effort was made to determine whether whatever skills
could be demonstrated might be of a transferable nature.
B. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Bug" Search (Continuum)
(S/NF/CL/3) Described here is a test of whether a search procedure involving attempts
to locate small objects in a room (e.g., a "bug") would be successful. The target location
was a large conference room in which a >1400 sq. ft. area (37.5 X 37.5 ft) was designated
as the potential target area. For each trial, a small hand-size object was chosen (e.g., a
calculator) then placed somewhere in the conference room--the location was determined by
entry into a random number generator for x-y coordinates on a 20 X 20 unit grid.
(U) A total of 50 trials, 25 in each of two conditions (labeled I and II), was carried
out with an experienced SRI RVer (#688) as search percipient. The RVer was in the RV
chamber on the third floor of the Radio Physics Laboratory (RPL) ; the target area was a
locked and guarded, nonoccupied conference room on the ground floor of the RPL.
(U) In Condition I, for each trial, an experimenter (El) places an object at a
location in the target room (determined by random number generator), then remains outside
the target room as a guard. A few minutes later, at a previously-agreed-upon time,
Experimenter E2, who is kept blind as to the object's location, has the RVer indicate his
assessment of the object's location. The RVer places a mark on a piece of paper containing
a single blank square to represent the target room. At the end of the trial, the RVer turns
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his response over to E2, the two of them proceed to the target room to meet El, and they
all enter the room to obtain feedback. Following feedback, the response coordinates,
obtained by use of a 20 X 20 grid square overlay on the response sheet, are determined,
and (along with the target coordinates) are entered into a computer to compare the
probability of the observed result against chance.
(U) In the 37.5-ft-square target area, the mean chance expectation (MCE)
target/response pair distance is 19.5 ft. In the 25 trials taken under Condition I, the
target/response pair distances ranged from a maximum of 15.6 ft to a minimum of 2.0 ft,
with a mean of 13.5 ft. This result (a 31 percent reduction from MCE) is statistically
significant at p = 1.7 X 10-3 . As a second measure of performance, the target/response pair
distances were ordered such that there was a trend from larger to smaller distances as the
series progressed, providing some evidence of improvement in task performance over time,
but the trend was not statistically significant.
(U) The Condition I and Condition II series were carried out in an identical fashion,
except that in Condition II, only one experimenter (El) was involved. Thus, El "hid" the
object for each trial. In the 25-trial sequence, the target/response pair distances ranged from
a maximum of 37.5 ft to a minimum of 3.75 ft, with a mean of 18.8 ft. This result (a 4
percent reduction MCE) is statistically nonsignificant. In the second measure of perform-
ance, however, the target/response pair distances were again ordered from larger to smaller
as the series progressed, but, in this case, the trend was statistically significant (p < 0.05).
Thus, evidence of improvement in task performance over time was established.
(U) With regard to the difference in RVer performance between Conditions I and II
(which, a one-way analysis of variance shows to be significant*), one can simply note the
difference in the two conditions. Technically speaking, the RVer's task was identical in the
two cases--namely, to determine the location of a randomly-placed object in a target room.
The psychology differed somewhat, however, in that during the less successful series
(Condition II), one experimenter hiding an object could be said to have more of a "game"
*(U) df1 = 1, df2 = 48, F = 4.94; p= 0.031.
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aspect to it than in Condition I, where the. task is structured more along application lines of
an experimenter and RVer searching for an object placed by a third party. Another
difference is that the second series followed the first; the trend may simply reflect the
"decline" effect that is typical in the psychoenergetics field when experimentation becomes a
repetitive routine. Further work along these lines would be required to clarify this particular
facet. Nonetheless, with both sets of data combined, the overall result, a mean
target/response pair distance of 16.2 ft (17 percent reduction of MCE), is statistically
significant at p = 0.01. Thus, the experimental series as a whole indicates that the
application of psychoenergetic search techniques, although not yet developed to high
accuracy, can augment other techniques in locating small target objects in a remote,
otherwise inaccessible, space.
C. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent" Search, Facility Level (Continuum)
(U) The RVer who participated in the above experiment was asked to take part in a
second experiment of a similar nature. In the second case, the target was to be a person,
located somewhere on the grounds of the SRI 70-acre complex. The RVer entered the RV
chamber on the third floor of the RPL, then an experimenter was sent to a random location,
determined by entry into a random number generator for x-y coordinates on a 20 x 20 unit
grid.
(U) Forty trials were carried out--20 in each of two conditions; the second condition
differed from the first only in that the RVer had in his possession a sample of hair from the
individual to be targeted (to test the so-called "witness" concept, part of the lore in dowsing
studies).
(U) The outcome of this experiment was that neither series yielded results differing
from chance expectation, nor was there any significant difference between the two conditions.
Although the RVer expressed subjective differences in attempting to locate a person (as
opposed to an object), no conclusions as to the difference between the two Experiments B
and C* could be drawn.
* (U) Defined in Subsections B and C of this chapter and hereafter referred to as
Experiments B and C.
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D. (S/NF/CL-3) Simulation of "Agent"/Facility Search (Continuum)
(S/NF/CL-3) A series of trials was undertaken with a special RVer, recommended by
the American Society of Dowsers, who responded to an invitation to participate in the SRI
search program (#198). An initial exploratory series of eight trials was carried out as in
Experiment B, Condition I, (simulation of "bug" search, with a calculator as target object).
The results were not beyond chance expectation. Debriefing of the RVer revealed a
preference for tasks that involved people, as in locating people, or places inhabited by
people. Therefore, a second exploratory series of fifteen trials was performed, the first ten
of which repeated the same experiment, but with an individual replacing the object. For the
remaining five trials, the target area in which the individual was located was expanded to the
SRI complex as in Experiment C above. The overall result in this series also was not beyond
chance expectation, but the target/response pair distances were ordered such that there was a
trend from larger to smaller distances as the series progressed, which began to approach
statistical significance (p = 0.07). Therefore, a more extensive series was planned in which
"peopled" locations were to be the targets.
(U) For this series, the target area was a > 20 sq. km area (4.8 km x 4.8 km). The
viewer was provided a satellite photograph of the area with a 20 x 20 unit grid overlay. In
order to investigate potential differences in targeting strategies, a targeting protocol was
prepared for the series in which, on an intermixed basis, the RVer was targeted on being (1)
given a photograph of the site, e.g., of a house, (2) told that an experimenter known to the
RVer was at a site, (3) told the name of the site (e.g., Stacey's Bookstore). Twenty-one
trials were carried out under this protocol: six under targeting method (1), six under
targeting method (2), and nine under targeting method (3).
(U) In the 4.8-km-square area, the mean chance expectation distance is 2.5 km. In
the 21-trial sequence, the target/response pair distances ranged from a maximum of 3.36 km
to a minimum of 0.34 km, with a mean of 1.55 km. This result (a 38 percent reduction
from MCE) is statistically significant at p = 1.1 x 10-3.
(U) With regard to the difference in RVer performance between targeting conditions,
the mean target/response pair distance was least for the photo-targeting condition (1),
median for the person-targeting condition (2), and maximum for the name-targeting
condition (3)--1.15 km, 1.58 km, and 1.80 km respectively. One-way analysis of variance
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(U)
shows, however, that the differences between the conditions were not statistically significant.*
Furthermore, no statistically-significant ordering of the target/response distances was observed
as the series progressed, indicating a level performance throughout the series.
E. (U) Binary Search (Discrete/Continuum)
(U) A "zeroing-in" approach that suggests itself is a sequential method whereby the
RVer makes a series of binary decisions to close in, step-by-step, on the target. If one
begins with a square map, for example, the sequence of questions would be of the form "left
or right half," followed by "upper or lower half" of the remaining half, followed again by
"left or right half" of the remaining square, and so forth, as indicated in Figure 2. After n
binary decisions, the designated target area would be narrowed down to 1/2 nth of the original
area (1/2, 1/4, 1/16, 1/32, ...). Assuming a flawless sequence of binary decisions, one
could pinpoint a target location relatively quickly by this means.
(U) The statistics of binary (p = 1/2) sorting by psychoenergetic means are relatively
well known, and on the order of a few percent above chance--this is statistically significant,
but is of little use in applications. One is led naturally to consideration of the use of
redundancy in one form or another (e.g., repetitive "guessing"), in order to amplify the
small statistical advantage available into an overall higher-accuracy result for the basic binary
process. As part of the binary-approach study, we investigated implementation of the
redundancy concept, reduced to practice in the form of a hand-held calculator programmed
for statistical averaging of (psi) inputs by an RVer.
(U) The targets for the series described here are the outcomes (black/redt in roulette
wheel spins) that are being generated in a double-blind fashion by an experimenter. The
task is thus one of determining whether a roulette ball is located in a red or a black bin. As
the RVer attempts to identify the ball's location, several responses are entered into a
calculator for statistical averaging as described below.
*(U) dfl = 2, df2 = 18, F = 1.43; p < 0.26.
t (U) Green 0 and 00 are, for the purposes of this study, taken to correspond to red and
black, respectively.
UNCLASSIFIED
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