RV DETECTION TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO ASW (S)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 26, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 26, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

pItT788R001300290001-7
For Release 2000/08/07: f
M
RV DETECTION TECHNIQUES
APPLIED TO ASW (S)
H. E. Puthoff, Ph.D.
E. C. May, Ph.D.
Radio Physics Laboratory
CLASSIFIED BY: DT-1A
REVIEW ON: 26 March 2002
This document consists
of 22 pages.
Copy No.
- NOT REGEABASL.E TO FOREIGN NATIONALS -
333 Ravenswood Ave. ? Menlo Park, California 94025
[phone] ? Cable: SRI INTL MPK ? TWX: 910-373-1246
ed For Release 2000/08/07 ft-KrT788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : ftRQP_9ty788R001300290001-7
CR
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
I ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II RV TECHNOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-
A. Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
B. RV as a Search/Location Technology.. . . . . . . . . . . .3
C. One-in-N "Games"--Examples from the Literature. . . . . 3
III SUGGESTED METHOD OF APPROACH FOR ASW APPLICATION . . . . 6
A. Phase 1--Microcomputer-Based Training . . . . . . . . . 6
1. Overall Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.. Technical Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3. Test Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
B. Phase 2--Demonstration-of-Feasibility Study . . . . . . 14
IV PROPOSED PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : SItRDf er788R001300290001-7
1
Computer Modeling Task . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
2
Decision Graph for Target Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
3
Average Number of Trials nl to Screen Positive . . . . . . .
12
1 Electronically-Automated Screening Study . . . . . . . . . . 5
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : gt Ey788ROO1300290001-7
An important element in ASW is the requirement to determine submarine
positions concerning which little or no a priori information is available.
The identification of technologies available to meet this requirement,
and an assessment of their effectiveness, is therefore an integral part of
any ASW effort, both with regard to threat analysis and potential offensive
use.
In this document we address the potential of a particular technology,
*
RV detection, as an appropriate location technology for the ASW effort.
Data generated in various pilot studies, which include successful land-
submarine communication and the location of a sunken ship, both by RV
techniques, indicate overall feasibility of the proposed approach.
Definition: The abbreviation RV refers to a human information-accessing
capability called "remote viewing." RV pertains to the ability of certain
individuals to access, by means of mental processes, information blocked
from ordinary perception by distance or shielding.
SECRET
- Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : SIE- -1b788ROO13OO29OOO1-7
A. Background
Ongoing efforts in both the opens-3 and classified4 10 communities
continue to provide evidence for the existence of so-called "parapsycho-
logical," psychoenergetic," or "psi" processes, a class of interactions
between consciousness and the physical world as yet unexplained. Of
particular interest along these lines (with regard to ASW) is the
phenomenon called "remote viewing" (RV), the ability of certain individuals
to access and describe, by means of mental processes, information blocked
from ordinary perception by distance or shielding or both.
The RV data base generated at SRI International alone over the past
decade consists of hundreds of experiments in the remote viewing of targets
'ranging from objects in nearby light-tight cannisters to geographic sites
at intercontinental distances, viewed from locations which included
shielded Faraday cages and a submerged submarine.
DIA, or his P.O.C. for this area, (DT-1A).
RV functioning has been examined both from the standpoint of U.S.
use as an intelligence collection technique, and from the standpoint of
threat analysis as to the vulnerability of U.S. systems and facilities.
These efforts are presently being pursued at SRI International under a
Joint Services Program sponsored by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA-DT),
The appropriate points of contact are the DIA COTR in residence at SRI,
or, in the Washington, D.C. area, Dr. J. Vorona, DDS&TI,
SECRET
.r Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : gttvty788R001300290001-7
B. RV as a Search/Location Technology
In problems of the search/location type (such as ASW) the general
prospect of a continuum of possible locations can usefully be reduced to
that of a set of discrete possibilities. This is because specification
of one of a number of grid squares is sufficient to define location, if
the grid mesh is fine enough. With the task so defined (to be one of a
discrete set of possibilities), then the location method can be designed
around one of several standard formats for RV testing developed to handle
one-in-N "guessing" games.
These formats generally consist of two parts: (1) repetitive choosing
by the remote viewer of one from among a number of possible alternatives,
and (2) some form of statistical averaging of such choices to average out
the "noise" and peak the "signal."
C. One-in-N "Games"--Examples from the Literature
As a first example of the power of such techniques in general, we cite
an experiment reported by Czech researcher Dr.. Milan Ryzl, a chemist with
the Institute of Biology of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Science. Ryzl
worked with a subject whose base performance level was that he was generally
capable of generating better than a 60% hit rate targeting on sequences
of random binary digits, or bits (0, 1), where chance expectation was 50%.
To apply this capability, Ryzi chose as a task the acquisition, without
error, of a 50-digit random binary sequence. The effort took 19,350 calls,
averaging 9 sec per call. The hit rate for individual calls was 61.9%,
11,978 hits and 7372 misses. By means of repeated passes through the
sequence and an elaborate (though inefficient) majority-vote protocol,
the subject was able to identify with 100% accuracy all 50 bits." The
probability that he did so by chance is only one in 1015
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : @IE~~ET788R001300290001-7
As a second example, we cite an electronically-automated screening
study carried out by Charles Tart of the University of California, Davis.12
Subjects were asked to determine which one of ten possible positions on
a circular display had been designated as an active target by the electronic
test device's random number generator, an analog to determining grid
positions of a submarine. From an unselected population of 2000 university
students participating in a mass card screening program, seventy of the
better subjects accepted an invitation to be further screened using the
automated electronic testing system. Of these, ten were finally chosen
to participate in a formal study involving 500 trials each. The results
obtained with these ten subjects are shown in Table 1. It is seen that
five of the ten subjects scored significantly above chance, all in the
range of 1.5-2.5 times chance expectation. The best subject averaged a
24.8% hit rate (-2.5 x chance) over the 500-trial sequence; the probability
of such a result or better occurring by chance is only p = 2 X 10-28.
With functioning of this quality, the application of statistical averaging
techniques would quickly yield high-reliability results in a search/
location problem, as is shown in Section III.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : IQrS:pfty788R001300290001-7
Subject
(10% Expected)
Probability of Obtaining
Such a Result by Chance
(one-tailed)
1
24.8%
2 x 10-28
2
20.6%
1 x l0 14
3
16.2%
2 x 10 6
4
16.0%
4 x 10 6
5
15.6%
2 x 10 5
6
11.8%
nonsignificant
7
11.4%
nonsignificant
8
10.8%
nonsignificant
9
9.4%
nonsignificant
10
7.8%
nonsignificant
SECRET
,,,,,, Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 ClRF0r788R001300290001-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : 3 Olk-
With regard to determining the feasibility of the use of RV techniques
in submarine location, an approach that recommends itself is a two-phase
program involving (1) microcomputer-based training, and (2) demonstration-
of-feasibility testing. These are discussed below.
A. Phase 1--Microcomputer-Based Training
1. Overall Approach
The first phase of the program would involve training a popula-
tion of volunteers using microcomputer-based simulation of the submarine-
location problem. Basically, the individuals participating are asked to
select, on a repetitive basis, which one of, say, ten circles randomly
displayed on a video monitor has been designated as the "target" by the
computer's random number generator.. In this simulation the ten circles
correspond to ten possible grid-square submarine locations, with the
computer-determined "target" circle designated as the actual location.
The computer display is driven by an LSI-11 microcomputer which, on a
trial-by-trial basis, generates a new random display of the circles.
The individual enters his selections by button press on a hand device
positioned over an X-Y grid (see Figure 1), and the computer responds
by giving immediate feedback as to the correct answer (to encourage learning).
As the trials progress, the selections are computer analyzed on line by
a statistical averaging program, the output of which indicates whether one
of the possibilities has been chosen statistically significantly more often
than expected by chance.
SECRET
?~, Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
C
z
1
D
y
in
T
a
FIGURE 1 COMPUTER MODELING TASK. The circles representing possible target locations are shown in the lower video
monitor; a decision graph is shown on the upper monitor. The remote viewer's choice is entered by button press
on hand device positioned over x-y grid.
C
z
N
in
m
v
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : ?ltLj9ff788RO01300290001-7
In the application (as contrasted to the simulation/training)
mode, essentially the same procedure is followed, with the circles
internally keyed to numbered grid-square alternatives. The procedure
differs only in that trial-by-trial feedback would, of course, not be
available in that case since the answer is unknown during the repetitive
selection procedure.
2. Technical Discussion
An efficient statistical-averaging method for the grid-square
selection process is provided by a standard sequential-sampling technique
used in e.g., production-line quality control. is The sequential method
gives a rule of procedure for making one of three decisions (with regard
to each of the possible choices) following each selection attempt (trial):
the accululated selections have met a pre-established hit-rate criterion
(decision positive); the accumulated selections do not exceed chance
expectation (decision negative); continue trials (insufficient data to
make a decision). The sequential sampling procedure differs from fixed-
trial-length procedures in that the number of trials required to reach a
decision is not fixed, but depends on the results accumulated with each
trial. The principal advantage of the sequential sampling procedure as
compared with other methods is that, on the average, fewer trials per
decision are required for an equivalent degree of reliability.
To apply the sequential analysis procedure, we must a priori
define the hit rate we require to conclude that useful locational RV
functioning is taking place, and what statistical risks we are willing to
accept for making an incorrect decision.
To meet these criteria, the sequential analysis procedure requires
the specification of four parameters to determine which outcome .(chance
or required-hit-rate) a series of trials corresponds to. They are: p0,
SECRET
WO Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: ?ItU9fr1788R001300290001-7
the fraction of selections of a particular target expected in the chance
condition (e.g., po = 0.1 for a one-in-ten grid-square problem); p1, the
fraction of selections expected in the presence of a functioning RV
capability (e.g., pi = 0.16 for a 1.6 x chance-expectation requirement,
a value that might be chosen because of previous performance in a successful
one-in-ten task); a, an a priori assigned acceptable error rate (e.g.,
a = 0.05) for concluding that accumulated selections of a particular
choice correspond to the p1 (RV) case when in fact they correspond to
the po (chance) case (Type I error); P, an a priori assigned acceptable
error rate (e.g., P = 0.05) for concluding that accumulated selections
of a particular choice correspond to the p (chance) case when in fact
they correspond to the pl (RV) case (Type II error).
With the parameters thus specified, the sequential sampling
procedure provides for construction of a decision graph of the-type shown
in Figure 2. The decision graph illustrates the rules of procedure for
making one of the three possible decisions following each trial: continue
test before making a decision (unshaded middle region in Figure 2);
decision positive (upper shaded region in Figure 2); decision negative
(lower shaded area in Figure 2). The equations for the upper and lower
decision lines are given in the Appendix.
With the appropriate equations programmed into the microcomputer,
the computer automatically records all data (trial number, target/response
pair), and displays on the video graphics system progress on a target
decision graph. A cumulative record of remote viewer selections is com-
piled by the computer until either the upper or lower decision line is
reached, at which point a decision is made.
Also given in the Appendix are the equations for the average
number of trials to make decisions, positive or negative. A plot of the
average number of trials to reach a positive decision for typical cases
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
M
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : gtWP-9ty788ROO1300290001-7
130HVl dO SNOJi3W 3S O31V"Inm3ov
SECRET
no . Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07:fttfff788R001300290001-7
of interest is shown in Figure 3, where 5% (a, p) error rates have been
assumed. As an example, we see that for a,twice-expectation rate (k = 2)
hitter, n1 R~ 60 trials are required on the average to reach a positive
decision on a one-in-ten target.
The overall system error is dependent on the type of mode employed
in the RV position-location attempts.
(a) If the submarine-location task is approached with a tentative
choice having already been made (e.g., by conventional technological means),
then the task of the remote viewer is to verify or reject the tentative
location as a backup test. In this mode, only a single decision graph is
plotted for the target choice of interest. The probability of error due
to chance (P e) in this case -a , being given by the product of the proba-
bility bility of making a selection even though operating at chance, and the
percentage of such selections that correspond to an incorrect decision:
Pe,c N
N
- .1
)
(b) If the submarine-location task is approached as a blind
one-in-N task (e.g., one-in-10 task), then N decision graphs are plotted
in parallel, one for each of the N target choices, as each selection is
being made. In this case, to a good approximation the graphs can be
treated in the chance condition as independent, and the probability of
error due to chance (P ) ~ NCY. Specifically, it is given by the product
e,c
of the probability of making at least one selection in the N graphs by
chance (which is one minus the probability of making no selections), and
the percentage of such selections that correspond to an incorrect decision:
Pe c (N N 11 I 1 (1 - a)
)
s
SECRET
NJ
NO Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : ft rM788R001300290001-7
FIGURE 3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF TRIALS n1 TO SCREEN POSITIVE
p0 = chance expectation = 1/N, where N is the number of alternatives.
p1 = kxp0, where p1 is the required hit rate and k is the associated strength parameter.
False alarm rates a - B - 0.05 are assumed.
SECRET
,.r, Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : S . Ey788ROO1300290001-7
For example, in a one-in-ten case (N = 10) a 1% individual-
target error rate (01 = 0.01) leads to P = 0.086, or a confidence factor
e,c
1 - P e,c = 0.91; this provides ^' a 9-fold increase in odds over the one-
in-ten confidence factor expected by chance.
3. Test Case
In order to verify the feasibility of the above approach on the
basis of actual RV-derived data, we examined data generated by a subject
asked to identify, not which of ten grid squares was occupied by a submarine,
but, analogously, which of ten circles on a display had been randomly chosen.
as the target circle by computer random number generator. The data (that
generated by Subject #1, Table 1--500 trials, 24.8% hit rate on the one-
in-ten task) were processed by passing it through the sequential analysis
statistical averaging program with the parameters set to correspond to a
twice-chance-expectation requirement and 5% error rates.. The result:
twelve one-in-ten targets were correctly identified, in a row, before the
data stream ran out. The probability of such a track record occurring
by chance is only p = 10 12.
Although the above data were gathered under the condition that
the correct answers were stored in the computer during the runs, and
therefore trial-by-trial feedback could be given as the random number
generator stepped through its program, the conditions are nonetheless
sufficiently similar to the projected task that the results can be taken
as evidence that the proposed approach is sound.
In the training program, participants would be trained by carrying
out a similar task, first with trial-by-trial feedback to encourage learning,
and then without feedback to model properly an application study. In this
initial phase the target for each run would be designated internally by the
computer's random number generator.
SECRET
go Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : 9trRY788R001300290001-7
B. Phase 2--Demonstration-of-Feasibility Study
The participants who emerge from Phase 1 with successful performance
profiles would then be asked to participate in Phase 2.
In Phase 2 the mechanics of microcomputer recording and analysis of
subject selections is the same as in Phase 1. Phase 2 differs from Phase 1,
however, in that a participant's selection from the random circle display,
internally keyed to numbered grid-square location alternatives, cannot be
internally compared to a recorded correct answer.
In this Phase 2 demonstration-of-feasibility study, the sponsor would
be asked to construct for each test a finite list of potential alternative
submarine locations one of which is known (or can be found out) to be
correct. To carry out the test, a participant (or participants) would be
briefed as to the task and then be asked to proceed as in Phase 1. The
sequential sampling parameters in the microcomputer analysis program would
be set in accordance with the performance profiles established by the
participant(s) in the Phase 1 training study. The results generated by
the participant(s) in response to the task would then be tabulated and
submitted to the sponsor. Following a series of such tests, performance
profiles for the individual participants and the overall data set would be
evaluated to provide an estimate as to the feasibility of the proposed
technique.
The probability of success in an ASW applications task is buttressed
by the fact that (1) the statistical procedures described here have been
successfully applied by us in an exploratory program to determine, by RV
means, the location of hidden radioactive materials and (2) we were
completely successful in a series of experiments with a submersible which
included long-distance land-submarine communication, and the location of
a sunken ship, both by RV techniques.
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 SGFOIA2
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000UNaA'? 5f 71 C V 1300290001-7
1. H. E. Puthoff and R. Targ.,. "A Perceptual Channel for Information
Transfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and
Recent Research," Proc. IEEE, Vol. 64, pp. 329-354 (March 1976),
UNCLASSIFIED.
2. H. E. Puthoff, R. Targ, and E. C. May,. "Experimental Psi Research:
Implications for Physics," in The Role of Consciousness in the
Physical World, Ed. R. Jahn, AAAS Selected Symposium 57, Westview
Press, Inc., Boulder (1981), UNCLASSIFIED.
3. R. G. Jahn, "The Persistent Paradox of Psychic Phenomena: An
Engineering Perspective," Proc. IEEE, Vol. 70, pp. 136-170
(February 1982), UNCLASSIFIED.
4. "Views on Emerging Areas of Science and Technology Potentially
Important to National Security (U)," STIC 75-4, U.S. Intelligence
Board Scientific and Technical Intelligence Committee (USIB-STIC),
Washington, D.C. (December 1975), CONFIDENTIAL.
5. H. E. Puthoff and R. Targ, "Perceptual"Augmentation Techniques (U),"
Final Report, SRI Project 3183, SRI International,.- Menlo Park, CA
(1 December 1975), SECRET.
6. "Soviet and East European Parapsychology Research (U)," CIA Report
SI 77-10012 (April 1977), SECRET.
7. H. E. Puthoff, R. Targ, E. C. May, and I Swann, "Advanced Threat
Technique Assessment (U)," Final Report, SRI Project 5309, SRI
International, Menlo Park, CA (October 1978), SECRET.
8. "Paraphysics R&D-Warsaw Pact (U);,."-D.IA Report DST-18105-202-78
(4 February 1980), SECRET.
9. R. Targ, H. E. Puthoff, B. S. Humphrey, and E. C. May, "Special
Orientation Techniques (U)," Final Report, SRI Project 8465,
SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (June 1980), SECRET.
10. H. E. Puthoff, "RV Reliability, Enhancement, and Evaluation (U),"
Final Report, SRI Project 3279-1, SRI International, Menlo Park, CA
(February 1982), SECRET.
UNCLASSIFIED
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/p8/f7ielffinff>}fQQ1300290001-7
11. M.. Ryzl, "A Model for Parapsychological Communication," J. Para-
psychology, Vol. 30, pp. 18-31 (March 1966), UNCLASSIFIED.
12. C. T. Tart, Learning to Use Extrasensory Perception, Univ. of
Chicago Press (1976), UNCLASSIFIED.
13. A. Wald, Sequential Analysis, Dover Publication, New York (1973),
UNCLASSIFIED.
UNCLASSIFIED
..r Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000 7 1300290001-7
The equations for the upper and lower limit lines in the sequential
sampling procedure are, respectively, 3.0
yl =dl+Sn
d
0
y = -d + Sn
0 0
pl 1 - po
log -
p0 1 - p1
1 - p
0
1 - p
1
pl 1 - po
log
p0 1 --P l
The average number of trials required to reach a decision in the
positive and negative directions, respectively, are given by
18
UNCLASSIFIED
so Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000 1300290001-7
nl =
log I 1 P a1+ (1 - ~) log (1 a ~
1 - p
p log P1 + (1 - p ) log 1 1
1 PO 1 1 - pa /
~1 a}
n
0 =
p log P1 + (1 - p ) log 1 - P 1 ) o p o 1- p
O O
UNCLASSIFIED
(1 - 9~
+ cx log
a
0" Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : O f
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788R001300290001-7
NOT RELEASABLE To FOREIGN NATIONALS -