ELECTRONIC SYSTEM PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES

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• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
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• Publication Date: September 30, 1980
• Content Type: REPORT

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Final Report 30 September 1980
ELECTRONIC SYSTEM PERTURBATION
TECHNIQUES (U)
By: EDWIN C. MAY BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY G. SCOTT HUBBARD
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333 Ravenswood Avenue
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Final Report
Covering the Period 6 June 1979 to 2 August 1980
ELECTRONIC SYSTEM PERTURBATION
TECHNIQUES (U)
SRI Project 8585
By: EDWIN C. MAY BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY G. SCOQT SuHUBBARD
Approved by:
ROBERT S. LEONARD, Director
Radio Physics Laboratory
DAVID D. ELLIOTT, Executive Director
Systems Research and Analysis Division
CLASSIFIED BY: Msg. HQDA (DAMI-ISH)
dated 7 July 1978
REVIEW ON: 7 July 1998
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GRILL FLAME. RESTRICT
DISSEMINATION TO ONLY
INDIVIDUALS WITH VERIFIED ACCESS.
Copy No. 7.....
This document consists of 68 pages.
Cv F- O C) $' SRi"6-09
30 September 1980
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
333 Ravenswood Avenue ? Menlo Park, California ? U.S.A.
[phone] ? CABLE: SRI INTL MNP ? TWX: 910-373-1246
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
LIST OF TABLES (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
I OBJECTIVE (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
IV RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR SYSTEM (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
A. Hardware (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1. Random Sources (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2. Analysis and Control (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3. Display (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
B. System Testing (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
C. System Isolation and Interference Protection (U). . . . 18
D. System Certification Testing Results (U). . . . . . . . 18
V EXPERIMENT PROTOCOL (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
A. Definitions (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
B. Data-Acquisition Session Description (U). . . . . . . . 20
C. Controls (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
D. Test Requirements (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
E. Records (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
F. Trial Invalidation Requirements (U) . . . . . . . . . . 24
G. General Considerations (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
VI RESULTS (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A. Pilot Phase (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
B. Global Control Runs (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
C. Formal Phase (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
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VII DISCUSSION (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Appendix--CHRONOLOGICAL LITERATURE SURVEY (U) . . . . . . . . . . 41
REFERENCES (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
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1 Block Diagram of Computer-Based RNG System (U) . . . . . . . 11
2 Pulse Processing Sequence (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3 Example of a 2-Tailed Sequential Sampling Plot (U) . . . . . 16
4 Possible Applications for the Remote Perturbation
Phenomenon (S) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
1 RNG Survey Summary (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2 Timing Intervals (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3 Pilot Phase Results (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
4 Global Control Runs (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
5 Formal Phase Results (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
A-1 RNG Study Survey (U) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
AM No
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I OBJECTIVE (U)
(S) The objective of this program is to determine the degree to which
selected personnel are able to interact, by mental means alone, with sensi-
tive electronic equipment, and to ascertain how this phenomenon might be
utilized for Army-designated applications.
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(U) In this report, we consider the possible production by individuals
of physical effects, such as the perturbation of sensitive electronic
equipment that appears to be well shielded against, or otherwise inacces-
sible to, human influence. The precedent for considering whether sensitive
electronic equipment can be influenced as a result of a remote perturbation
(RP) phenomenon has been established in the open literature in 48 published
papers.l-48* These reports describe 214 separate experiments, 74 of which
show statistical evidence for an anomalous perturbation--a factor of nearly
(U) A representative experiment of this type involves three basic
(1) A source of "true" random electronic output.
(2) A statistical analysis technique.
(3) An individual who attempts to cause, by mental
means alone, a change in the random source's
output.
(U) Although the data base cited above appears to be quite impressive,
a close examination of these studies reveals that they all can be con-
sidered incomplete in one or more significant details. For example, 44%
of the references report no control tests of any type, and the majority
of the studies afford insufficient details about the experimental apparatus
to permit assessment of possible environmental influences.
(S) We believe that the serious implications of RP for science in
general and for military applications in particular necessitated the
(U) References are listed at the end of this report.
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(s)
design and execution of a random number generator (RNG) experiment,
which attended to these important factors. A one-year, two-phase program
was initiated to accomplish this objective.
(U) During Phase I a computer-based binary RNG system was constructed
from two isolated sources (noise diode and radioactive P-decay source),
an LSI-11 microcomputer, and a video graphics display unit. Pulses from
a given random source were used to construct binary sequences. Sequential
analysis, a particularly sensitive method of determining whether a given
sequence is "random," was applied to this binary output. Finally the
results were stored for further analysis and displayed on the video
graphics system.
(U) The results of Phase I are described in detail in May and
Hubbard4 , but are summarized briefly here. Both sources were investigated
for their sensitivity to changes in physical environment, and those
parameters that were found to influence them were either controlled by
cut-off circuitry or monitored. The sources were shielded, electrically
isolated, and coupled to the computer by optical transmission links. Both
the sequential analysis program and the sources were modeled by Monte Carlo
techniques and found to be well within expected limitations. The entire
RNG system was tested by a series of standard fixed-length statistical
tests and found to meet all standard criteria for randomness. In addition,
the system was checked using the variable-length sequential analysis
procedure. The binary sequences also satisfied the criteria set by that
technique for randomness.
(U) The requirements and protocol for Phase II are detailed in
May et al.54 During this phase we screened 17 volunteers and selected
seven of them to participate in the formal portion of the experiment.
We set an a priori criterion that required significant runs from two of
the seven subjects to label the entire effort a success. It was also
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predetermined that over a period of three months each subject would
complete 100 trials.
(U) A trial is defined as a variable-length sequence terminated by
the a priori criteria set by sequential analysis. Only two results are
possible from a single sequential analysis trial: the binary sequence
is distorted (i.e., the probability of finding a one in a given bit
position is either greater than 0.52 or less than 0.48), or the sequence
is within chance expectation. These two decisions are made to within a
confidence level of 95 percent. For a single subject to contribute a
significant result to the overall series, he had to produce 16 or more
distorted trials out of his set of 100.
(U) Two types of control trials were taken during the formal portion
of Phase II: (1) global trials that usually were generated in sets of 100
each at random times throughout the investigation, and (2) local trials
that were taken immediately prior to each subject's period of effort.
Both types of controls were generated without personnel in the experimental
area. The global trials served as a time-independent check on the parent
distribution from which the samples were drawn. The local control trials
tested the momentary statistical fluctuations immediately before the formal
session.
(U) The results from the study met the preestablished, formal
Two out of the seven subjects produced significant
runs. (The possibility that chance fluctuations
alone could produce this result is p = 0.029, where
p is the probability.)
Neither type of control run exhibited significant
overall deviations from chance expectation.
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III INTRODUCTION (U)
(U) Occasionally reports appear of anomalous failures of electronic
equipment that seem to be caused by the proximity of certain individuals.
Of special interest is a class of phenomena involving perturbation of
sensitive equipment isolated from human subjects by distance or shielding.
In certain of these instances the generation of such effects appears to
be under volitional control of the subjects involved.
(U) Included among the above are experiments in which a subject
attempts to perturb the output of an electronic RNG drived by electronic
noise or radioactive decay. This kind of RP experiment has an investigative
appeal because it involves no subjective interpretation, i.e., the results
may be expressed in terms of well-understood statistical theory.
(U) The first such experiment of this type was published in 1970 by
Helmut Schmidt.l
As of December 1979, there have been 47 other papers 2-48
published, mostly in the literature on parapsychology. Almost all of these
experiments have two points in common:
? A truely random input device.
? An individual with motivation and intent to have the
statistics of the random input device differ from chance
expectation during designated periods.
(U) A representative experiment might proceed as follows. A random
input device, such as the noise associated with a solid state diode, is
used to create a random binary sequence. The accumulated number of ones
in the sequence is indicated to the subject by lights connected to the
noise source. In a successful experiment the subject is able to enforce
an excess number of ones. As in the case of biofeedback research, effects
have been demonstrated even when little is known about the mechanism.
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(U) We have examined the body of literature spanning the ten years
from 1970 to 1979. In this survey, we have only considered the random
generator experiments published in the three major U.S. parapsychological
journals: The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research,
Journal of Parapsychology, and Research in Parapsychology. This survey,
which represents the vast majority of the published RNG studies, is
detailed in the Appendix and summarized in Table 1. Forty-eight papers
reported a total of 214 individual experiments, 74 of which claimed
statistically significant results. The chance likelihood of such an
outcome is approximately 2 X 10-41.
(U) This impressive statistic must, however, be evaluated with
respect to experimental equipment and protocols. All the studies surveyed
could be considered incomplete in at least one of the following four areas:
(1) No control tests were reported in more than 44 percent
of the references. Of those that did, most did not
check for temporal stability of the random sources
during the course of the experiment.
(2) There were insufficient details about the physics and
constructed parameters of the experimental apparatus
to assess the possibility of environmental influences.
(3) The raw data was not saved for later and independent
analysis in virtually any of the experiments.
(4) None of the experiments reported controlled and
limited access to the experimental apparatus.
(S.) We believe that the serious implications of RP for military
applications and for science necessitated the design and execution of an
RNG experiment that was more complete with respect to the four points
enumerated above.
(U) A two-phase program was initiated to accomplish the objective
stated at the outset. Phase I aimed to develop a reliable computer-based,
(U) p 5 0.05 for any individual experiment.
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Numbers of
References
Year
Number of
Experiments
Number of
Significant Experiments
(p 5 0.05)
2
1970
3
3
3
1971
6
4
5
1972
22
12
2
1973
7
7
3
1974
14
7
6
1975
17
7
10
1976
43
12
9
1977
46
10
6
1978
2.8.
7
2
1979
28
5
48
214
74
(U)
noise-driven RNG system and to certify that the binary bit streams produced
by the generator met a number of statistical criteria for randomness. This
report recapitulates the detailed Phase-I discussion contained in May and
Hubbard49 and summarizes the experimental modifications that address the
(U) During Phase II, seventeen personnel were screened to select
the seven individuals who participated in the formal portion of this Phase.
The testing procedure and the results are described in detail below.
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(U) RNG SURVEY SUMMARY
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(U) To achieve the objective of this program, we developed a computer-
based random number generator. Special efforts were made in two specific
areas: First, extensive testing of the true random sources was carried
out to study their response to environmental factors. Second, a variety
of statistical tests were applied to the complete system to ensure that
the output was truly random under experimental conditions.
A. Hardware (U)
(U) Figure 1 shows the overall hardware configuration, which consisted
of three basic elements: (1) an isolated source of random electronic
signals, (2) an analysis and control section, and (3) a graphics display
unit. Following the techniques of learning theory, we used the graphics
display unit to provide visual feedback of information about the current
RANDOM
SOURCES ANALYSIS + CONTROL DISPLAY
NOISE
DIODE
(3-DECAY
16-BIT
LSI-11
COMPUTER
COLOR
GRAPHICS
GRAPHICS
TABLET
FIGURE 1 (U) BLOCK DIAGRAM OF COMPUTER-BASED RNG SYSTEM
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status of the binary sampling. We hypothesized that in this fashion the
subject might learn to influence the sequence more readily.
1, Random Sources (U)
(U) The random source elements consisted of a commercially
available noise diode and a radioactive source with an appropriate radia-
tion detector.
(U) A Texas Instruments MD-20 planar silicon noise diode was
chosen for its large noise output (^500 pVd~ ) and its well-described
functional characteristics so 161
147 147
(U) Promethium ( Pm) was selected as a radioactive source
because it is nearly a 100-percent 0 emitter with essentially no competing
decay modes. Detection of the electron continuum was accomplished using
a well-understood and reliable ORTEC silicon surface-barrier detector.
(U) Figure 2 shows the process by which a random number was
generated from the noise diode source. Random-amplitude 1-MHz sawtooth
voltage pulses from the diode, Figure 2(a), were filtered by a bandpass
filter, Figure 2(b). At each positive-going zero crossing of the filtered
signal a TTL pulse was generated, giving a random digital signal,
Figure 2(c). Finally, a divide-by-two circuit changed state at the rising
edge of each TTL pulse, yielding a binary bit stream, Figure 2(d) with
probability of being in the logical one state of one-half. This bit
stream was sampled and shifted into an 8-bit shift register at a l-kHz
rate, so that a random 8-bit number might be selected at intervals greater
than 8 ms. A completely analogous process occurred with the IS-decay
source. The major distinction was that electrons of random energy arrived
at a detector where they were converted into electrical signals of random
voltage. A low-level discriminator generated a logic pulse whenever the
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voltage rose above a threshold corresponding to electron energy of 25 keV.
From this point the signal processing was the same as described above for
Figure 2(c).
2. Analysis and Control (U)
(U) The analysis and control portion of the system consisted
of an LSI-11 microcomputer. The LSI-11 was programmed to sample one of the
noise sources at a specified rate to obtain its random bits. A sequence
of such samples was tested by the LSI-11 for an excess or lack of ones on
a continuous basis, using a sequential analysis statistical technique .E52262
(U) Sequential analysis is an efficient technique for determining
whether the output of a binary random generator contains a distribution
of zeroes and ones as expected, or is distorted. The principal advantage
of this technique as compared with other methods is that, on the average,
fewer bits per final decision are required (roughly 50 percent fewer) for
an equivalent degree of statistical reliability.
(U) Before we are able to detect whether the random output of
a binary generator has been distorted, we must a priori define criteria
as to how much distortion we require, and what statistical risks we are
willing to accept for making an incorrect decision. To meet these criteria,
sequential analysis demands the specification of four parameters to de-
termine to which binomial distribution a particular data sequence belongs.
The four parameters are: (1) po, the fraction of ones expected in an
undistorted distribution; (2) p1, a threshold for the fraction of ones
assigned to define distorted distributions; (3) a, the assigned acceptable
f
probability for concluding that the random source is perturbed (p1 1is-
tributor or greater) when it is not (Type I error); (4) and S, the
assigned acceptable probability for concluding that the random source is
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unperturbed (p distribution) when it is (Type II error). With the
0
parameters thus specified, the sequential sampling procedure provides a
decision graph as shown in Figure 3. In this figure, the y axis displays
the accumulated number of excess ones (number of ones less expected number
of ones) as a function of sample number (x axis). Using Figure 3, a
decision can be made after the nth sample by applying the following
(1) Sample the binary sequence.
(2) Sum the excess number of ones to date.
(3) If the excess sum of ones lies above Line A but not
in Region 1, or below Line B but not in Region 2,
do Step 1.
(4) If the sum lies in Region 1, stop the sampling and
conclude that the binary sequence is derived from a
distorted distribution with fraction of ones greater
than pl.
(5) If the sum lies in Region 2, stop the sampling and
conclude that the sequence belongs to a distorted
distribution with fraction of ones less than 1 - pl.
(6) If the sum attempts to cross both Line A and Line B,
stop the sampling and conclude that the sequence
belongs to the undistorted distribution, p0.
The detailed analysis and mathematical. formulations of sequential analysis
can be found in May and Hubbard. 49
(U) For the experiment described in this report, pop p1, CY,
and S were fixed at 0.50, 0.52, 0.05, and 0.05, respectively.
3. Display (U)
(U) The computer-driven graphics display system consisted of
two independent 19-in.color video monitors, a Grinnell display controller,
and a Summagraphics 20-by-20-in.graphics tablet. Using these components,
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FIGURE 3 (U) EXAMPLE OF A 2-TAILED SEQUENTIAL SAMPLING PLOT
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data from sequential sampling statistics, pulse height analysis, or any
other output could be displayed.
B. System Testing (U)
(U) Noise diodes for use in this system were extensively tested for
response to changes in temperature (-40 to +40 C), leakage current (40 }IA
to 200 pA)., and other environmental factors such as a 6000-gauss dc
241 60 147
magnetic field and low-intensity radioactive sources ( Am, Co, Pm).
We found that over the range examined for each factor the spectral noise
density was flat within ?1 dB for the bandpass of the filter (1 kHz to
200 kHz). Furthermore, the filtered noise followed a Gaussian distribution
under all conditions tested as long as the leakage current was 80 to 120 PA.
We confirmed the manufacturer's specification for the dependency of the
noise power-spectrum on temperature. This change was insignificant for
variations of ?5 C near room temperature.
147
(U) The random emission of electrons from the S decay of Pm is
independent of known external influences. The sensitive element, the
surface barrier detector, was tested for changes in leakage current as a
function of temperature. At the maximum temperature tested (-40 C) the
noise contribution was caused by the increased current leakage and was
eliminated completely with an appropriate low-level discriminator.
(U) We assumed that the TTL logic circuitry of the major system
elements (LSI-11, Grinnell controller, and the like) would continue to
operate as specified by the vendor, so that extensive environmental testing
of these components was not done. Any possible failures of these components
would have been observed in the extensive control investigations described
below.
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C. System Isolation and Interference Protection (U)
(U) To prevent spurious signals from known external influences
being incorporated into the random source output, numerous precautions
were taken. Each random source was encased in a sealed 0.125-in, thick
soft iron box with radio frequency shielding to provide protection against
mechanical, magnetic, or rf intrusion. Batteries supplied the electrical
power to eliminate ac-line transients and 60-Hz noise. All data output
to the LSI-11 occurred via optical transmission links to ensure complete
electrical isolation. In addition, the noise diode was monitored con-
tinuously with a precision of ?0.2 C to determine any temperature changes.
(U) Fail-safe circuits were included in both random sources so that
the units would shut off automatically and require manual reset under the
following circumstances:
The battery supply dropped below a critical point
(12 V).
? The electron detector leakage current rose above an
acceptable level (2.0 }iA).
? The diode current deviated from a narrowly defined
current window.
D. System Certification Testing Results (U)
(U) A variety of fixed-length statistical tests were applied to
500,000 sample control runs of random numbers generated by the system
described above. In addition, approximately 3 X 106 samples from each
source were subjected to sequential analysis. No unexpected deviations
from chance expectation were observed in any of these control tests,
indicating that the system performed in accordance with design. Complete
details of the hardware, computer software, testing procedures, and
numerical results can be found in May and Hubbard. 49
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V EXPERIMENT PROTOCOL (U)
(S) A complete experiment protocol was prepared and submitted to the
client organization in advance of the formal data-acquisition portion of
Phase II. Much of that protocol is repeated here.
A. Definitions (U)
(U) We began the discussion of the Phase II Formal Test Protocol by
introducing a set of definitions:
? TARGET BIT The determined single bit from one of the random
sources to be used in the analysis.
? SAMPLE The acquisition of eight binary bits from the
RNG of which the fifth bit is defined as the
target bit. (The additional bits are to provide
a local temporal history of the bit stream in
which the target bit is imbedded.)
? TRIAL A number of samples comprising a sequence that
meet a set of statistical conditions that
terminate the sequence.
? RUN 100 trials
CONTROL TRIAL A trial carried out automatically by the computer
under the same conditions as the data acquisition
session, but with no one present in the session
area.
SEQUENTIAL
ANALYSIS
? CHANCE
DISTRIBUTION
? DISTORTED
DISTRIBUTIONS
The statistical procedure that provides a decision
algorithm for terminating the trial.
A binomial distribution of binary digits (0, 1)
with a mean probability of 0.05 for observing a
one as the target bit.
Binomial distributions with means greater than or
equal to 0.52, or less than or equal to 0.48
(a two-tailed test).
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(U) Table 2 shows the timing intervals for a sample, trial, and
run. It is important to note, that no bits in the binary sequence were
lost for a single trial, and that data for each trial was a continuous
record of bits collected in 8-bit samples. Thus, the average trial length
consisting of 3300 samples was approximately 25 s. All bits from the
source that were generated between trials were lost.
Item
Timing Interval
Sample
8 ms
Trial
^25 s
Run
^3 months
B. Data-Acquisition Session Description (U)
(U) A data-acquisition session was divided into three sections:
(1) Presession
(3) Postsession.
(U) During the presession before the subject's arrival, the hardware
was checked for proper functioning, and the set of variables characterizing
the session (e.g., time of day, noise source) were entered into the system
program. The variables chosen were those specifically determined for that
participant during the pilot period. In addition, no less than five control
trials were executed with no one present in the session area. These con-
trol trials were collected under the same environmental conditions as the
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(U)
session trials, except for the absence of putative human intervention.
Once the control session was initiated, an automatic trial sequencer cycled
through a sequence of trials, spaced apart by random time intervals
T, 0 < T < 20 s. This random spacing insured that the control trials
simulated human interaction with the system as closely as possible.
(U) To begin a session, the subject and one monitor entered the
session room. The subject took his place in front of the viewing monitor
and controlled the start time of the individual trials by means of a start
button on a cursor associated with the graphics tablet. This constituted
the only form of physical interaction of the subject with the apparatus.
The subject's task was to cause mentally either an excess number of ones
or an excess number of zeroes in the binary sequence. The session lasted
no longer than 30 min. During the session the subject received visual
feedback for all trials, and auditory feedback (a bell.) for trials that
sequential analysis indicated belonged to one of the distorted distributions.
(U) The postsession consisted of a debriefing in which the subject
discussed his experience. At the conclusion of the debriefing, there was
an additional period during which no less than five more trials were con-
ducted with no one present in the session area. Such postsession trials
(not to be confused with control trials) were conducted specifically to
investigate the claim that there might be a linger effect associated with
putative RP interaction. This linger effect might be compared to the well-
understood physics concept of relaxation time. Postsession trials were
recorded separately for later analysis.
(U) To allow for a possible linger effect, a minimum of one-hour
separation between subjects was generally enforced.
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C. Controls (U)
(U) Aside from the presession control trials, a total of 1000 addi-
tional control trials were taken in sets of 100 or more for each of the
seven participants. These trials were collected at random times on a 24-
hour basis to establish the empirical sampling distribution throughout
the formal testing period.
D. Test Requirements (U)
(U) The test requirements for a single trial were determined com-
pletely by the formulation of the sequential analysis theory. In that
analysis a set of decision boundaries completely determines (within the
bounds of the Type I and Type II errors specified) from which of the
distributions (chance or distorted) a given sequence belongs. Details
of this analysis are given in May and Hubbard. 49 For a single trial to
be successful, the sequence had to belong to a distorted distribution
corresponding either to a mean 20.52 or s 0.48, with a single-tailed
confidence factor of 95 percent. The overall chance likelihood for making
a decision in favor of a two-tailed distorted distribution on any given
trial was 0.1.
(U) Each subject was required to contribute 100 valid trials. Of
these 100 trials, the number of sequences designated by the sequential
analysis as being distorted were tallied by the computer. The probability
of obtaining 16 successful events in 100 trials is less than 0.039 (fifteen
is greater than p = 0.05). The subject therefore had to produce 16 or
more successful formal trials out of a total of 100 to have completed a
significant run. As during the pilot period, the subject could choose to
exercise a pass option before any given trial, in which case it was labeled
*
(U) See Part F below for definition of valid/invalid trials.
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(U)
as such in the computer record. Regardless of the outcome, a pass did not
contribute to the formal series of 100 trials.
(U) For the entire study to have significance, two or more of the
seven subjects chosen for the formal study were required to complete
significant runs. The probability of obtaining two significant runs out
of seven attempts by chance is less than 0.028. The probability of a
single significant run is 5 0.039.
E. Records (U)
(U) Two types of data recording were utilized during the formal test
(1) Recording of summary statistical information.
(2) Bit-by-bit recording of raw data.
For all trials (passes, presession and postsession controls, and the
1000 additional control trials for each participant), a summary statistic
was recorded on a single floppy disk. This data included the following:
? Time of day (to nearest second)
? Temperature of diode (if used)
? Source
? Pass indicator
? Accumulated number of trials
? Accumulated number of successful trials
? Number of samples in the given trial
? Number of ones in that trial
? Sequential analysis decision.
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(U) For all trials except the extra 1000 control trials, raw data
was recorded on a second floppy disk. These included:
? All the data for each trial from the summary disk
(redundancy check).
? All parameters of the sequential analysis used to
analyze the trial in question.
? Two bytes of data for each sample, one byte for the
random 8-bits acquired for that sample and one byte
of count-rate information for secondary analysis
(i.e., P-decay rate or the number of voltage zero
crossings from the noise diode).
? Target bit position.
F. Trial Invalidation Requirements (U)
(U) The two random sources were equipped with appropriate hardware
failsafe circuitry. Nonetheless, to account for possible hardware/software
failures, we designated, in advance, the following certain conditions
under which data would be rejected as invalid, i.e., not counted as part
of the formal series:
? If the battery power supply dropped below a preset level,
or various other hardware parameters exceeded their
prespecified operating ranges, the source output was
inhibited. The system program detected this state and
by software forced a "pass" condition for that trial.
The trial just prior to system "shut down" was labeled
"invalid" regardless of its particular statistic.
? As a further cross-check against possible source hardware
difficulty, a trial was labeled "invalid" if the raw data
contained five contiguous samples of identical data bytes.
The probability of this occurring by chance alone is less
than one part in 1012. Because there was no prior evidence
that such large-scale effects occur in RNG systems, we
concluded that such a sequence of data bytes would most
likely have resulted from momentary hardware failure.
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G. General Considerations (U)
(S) At no time did the subject have access to the generating hardware,
nor was he left unattended in the session area. As a closed, classified
area, it is secured by combination and 4-state cipher lock.
(S) The guidelines set forth in May et also with regard to human
experimentation were in effect during the course of the experiment.
nrz
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A. Pilot Phase (U)
(U) Seventeen SRI International employees were chosen to take part
in the pilot phase of this program. They were selected purely upon their
own expressed interest in participating in such a program, rather than on
any previous RP experience. During this phase, although the sample rate
was fixed at 125 s each subject was allowed to select his favorite time
of day, his preferred experimenter, the source which seemed to "work" best
for him, and the number of trials he would do at a single sitting.
(U) Two general experimental parameters emerged from the pilot phase.
First, it became rapidly apparent to the experimenters that an arbitrary
limit of five trials/session seemed optimal. If the subject continued
much beyond this limit, he became bored with the task and began to initiate
each successive trial in a "mechanical" or rote fashion.
(U) Secondly, we felt that more interesting feedback displays might
only serve to divert the subject's attention from the RP task; therefore,
we decided not to design alternatives to the display of the sequential
sampling decision lines. Neither of these two viewpoints were based on
sufficient data to be statistically significant, but the pilot success rate
of a number of subjects indicated that these conditions should be included
in the formal portion of Phase II.
(U) Because the participants contributed varying numbers of trials,
.our selection criteria for the formal phase included not only the scoring
rate, but also the subject's interest and availability for a three-month
period. Table 3 shows the pilot results for each of the seven subjects
who were finally chosen for the formal experiment, and an asterisk indicates
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Subject
Source
Trials
Successes t
085
P decay
42
5
130
Diode
115
13
146
decay
14
2
346
decay
29
4
531
decay
74
16
758
Diode
45
5
827
Diode
228
31
*
(U) Independently significant.
(U) Probability of a single success of 0.1.
(U)
those who were scoring at a significant rate. The combined score for all
subjects using the diode source approaches significance (49 successes for
388 trials, p S 0.054); the total for the P-decay source is significant
(27 successes for 159 trials, p s 4.4 X 10- 3 ).
B. Global Control Runs (U)
(U) Global control runs were long sessions of trials generated without
intentional influence on the apparatus in the absence of all personnel
from the experimental environment. The sessions, which consisted of
multiples of 100 trials each, were taken at all times of the day throughout
the course of the formal experiment and were designed to monitor the long-
term statistical behavior of the random sources. Such long runs average
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(U)
over small local deviations and give an accurate measure of the ideal
distribution from which the samples are taken (binomial in this case).
(U) The protocol required 1000 trials for each subject. The results
of these controls are shown in Table 4 and were analyzed in runs of 100
(U) The general expression for the expected number of successful runs
Ns = NR X ps
where N is the number of runs and p is the probability of a single
R
s
successful run.
(U) The probability of obtaining five or fewer successful trials
is S 0.024 (six is not significant). Thus, for this case NR = 70,
p = 0.024 and N = 1.7. The asterisks in Table 4 indicate those runs
s s
with significantly too few successes: The chance probability of this
occurring is p 5 0.027.
(U) Similarly, the probability of obtaining 16 or more successful
trials is 5 0.040 (15 is not significant). Therefore NR = 70, p = 0.040,
and N = 2.8. The daggers in Table 4 indicate those runs with 16 or more
s
successful trials: the expected number is three and two were observed
(not significant).
(U) In the overall, two-tailed case five runs are expected to show
some significant deviation, and seven were observed. This result is not
significant and confirms that the long-term parent distribution was
binomial.
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Subjects
Set
085
130
146
346
531
758
827
1
5*
9
8
7
7
12
9
2
14
11
9
10
9
9
10
3
10
10
7
8
12
7
17t
4
12
9
10
7
3*
8
12
5
6
8
6
9
9
6
13
6
11
15
9
13
8
9
6
7
6
6
6
10
10
11
8
8
10
3*
8
11
8
7
7
9
12
5*
7
12.
12
9
10
10
13
5*
9
11
19fi
10
6
(U) Significantly too few successes.
(U) Significantly too many successes.
C. Formal Phase (U)
(U) Each of the seven subjects chosen for the formal phase contributed
100 trials over a 3-month period. Table 5 shows the results of the formal
experiment as well as for the local controls and post-session trials.
(U) None of the local control sets before each session were signifi-
cant for any of the subjects. This indicates that the sources were pro-
ducing bit streams consistent with the binomial distribution immediately
prior to the subject's period of effort.
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(U) FORMAL PHASE RESULTS
Subject
Controls
Formal
Experiment
Post-
session
085
8/100
11
5/100*
130
10/105
12
9/100
146
12/105
9
10/105
346
7/85
7
7/75
531*
8/105
17 (p = 0.021)
8/105
758*
9/95
16 (p = 0.040)
9/105
827
9/80
15
5/80
*
(U) Independently significant.
(U) A significantly small number of successes was obtained in one
postsession run for Subject 085. The remaining postsession runs were
within chance expectation.
(U) Subjects 085, 146, 346, and 531 used the radioactive source;
Subjects 130, 758, and 827 preferred the noise diode. The formal phase
results (Table 5) show that Subjects 531 and 758 produced 17 and 16
successes out of 100 trials, respectively. The odds that chance deviations
alone produced this result are greater than 47:1 for 17 successes and
greater than 25:1 for 16 (p 5 0.021 and S 0.039, respectively).
(U) The formal requirement, as stated in May et al. 64 was:
"for the entire study to be significant, two or more of the
seven participants chosen for the formal study must contribute
significant 100 trial sets (i.e., sets of 16 or more successful
trials) ."64
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This requirement has been satisfied. The probability that two or more
subjects would produce significant results by chance fluctuations alone
is 5 0.029.
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(U) The first part of the objective of this program was to determine
the degree to which certain selected personnel are able to interact, by
mental means alone, with sensitive electronic equipment. To assess the
statistical results quoted above properly, we must comment further on the
survey results discussed in Section III. One criticism that is levied
frequently against such research is the suggestion that the experimenters
might only report the good results and ignore the unsuccessful results.
Let us suppose, for example, that for every successful experiment reported
there were ten other experiments that were both unreported and unsuccessful.
If, then, we interpret the survey results in accordance with this hypothesis,
the odds are greater than 2500:1 against the chance that the expanded data
base would have so many successful experiments. If we consider the com-
plexity and time constraints of the various experiments, it seems unlikely
that selective reporting can account for the survey results.
(S) The results might possibly be accounted for by subtle, yet quite
ordinary influences. As mentioned in Section II, we noticed four major
areas in which the survey was incomplete, which prevented us from properly
assessing these influences. The possibility of such influence was one of
the principle reasons for repeating the experiment. In our experiment we
attended to the insufficiencies as follows:
? As reported in May and Hubbard49 we performed detailed
analyses of the physics associated with the random
sources and determined their particular sensitivities
to environmental parameters. We noted that the diode
was mildly sensitive to temperature, and it was
monitored throughout the experiment. (There were no
significant correlations of small temperature fluc-
tuations with statistical successes). A quantum
CC~'DCT
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*J 16 %w 1%
mechanical model of the diode was developed and found
to match direct measurement to within 1 percent error.
This model enabled us, by Monte Carlo methods, to
simulate temperature fluctuations and assess their
influence upon the statistical output. We found that
temperature changes of ?20.0 C did not effect the
statistical, single bit probability of the binary
sequence, which was the expected effect of the 200-kHz
bandpass filtering of the diode output. Likewise,
large temperature changes in the radioactive source
would have added electronic noise to the electron
signal, but would not have affected the single bit
probability. Considering the isolation precautions
and the extensive random source testing described in
May and Hubbard, 49 we concluded that the sources were
stable against usual and in some cases (magnetic
fields, for example), large environmental changes.
? We monitored the output from the sources with global
and local control trials throughout the course of the
3-month experiment. Because no long- or short-term
statistical changes were observed, we concluded that
both sources were stable with time.
? We saved a complete record of the sample-by-sample
raw data for both the formal experiment effort as well
as for the local control trials. These data were
archived with the client organization.
? We conducted the entire experiment in a classified
vault: at no time did the subjects have unsupervised
access to the room.
(U) The experiment described in this report is more complete with the
addition of parameters described above. We have enumerated the individual
results for local control, formal, and postsession runs in the previous
section. Although the combined results for each of these three categories
cannot be reported formally in terms of the protocol,64 they merit some
discussion, nonetheless.
(U) The combined result for the local control runs (63 successes for
675 trials) is not significant, whereas the total across all subjects for
ow OM 1&94 0% W ~
60 Wm Nw 9% 16 1
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(U)
the formal experiment is. Five of the seven subjects produced runs above
chance expectation (ten successes), which contributed to the overall formal
score of 87 successes out of 700 trials (p = 0.021). The odds that such
a deviation would occur by chance alone are greater than 47:1. Note that
none of the formal trials were invalidated under the guidelines of the
protocol.
(U) The overall total for the postsession runs is significantly too
low (53 successes for 670 trials, p = 0.028). In the protocol we noted
that the postsession trials were used as a check on the claim of a linger
effect: it has been noted,in past experiments that after a significant
deviation was observed during a subject's effort period, postsession trials
taken just after his effort tended to deviate significantly as well.
Usually, these trials would "decay" back to the expected value in a short
period of time. We see no evidence of such a correlation in our data,
but we note here the significantly low overall result for the sake of
completeness.
-w. (U) We conclude that we have observed an anomalous and, as yet,
unexplained effect upon an electronic system, which cannot be accounted
for easily by simple engineering considerations because
? The magnitude of our results is commensurate with
previous reported studies.
Precautions and controls significantly exceeded any
former experiments.
\ (U) If we assume, then, that we have verified our initial hypothesis
that an anomalous RP phenomenon exists, we must then examine the possible
mechanisms for this effect.
(U) The first such potential mechanism, and that which is frequently
mentioned in the data base, is some form of remote perturbation--that is,
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(U)
a physical change in a system that occurs without a subject's physical
intervention. In this model, a subject through his volutional control
literally "forces" a random source to change its behavior. Although this
kind of RP interaction has been reported variously by 5000 years of human
culture, it has appeared to be at odds with currently accepted ideas of
physics. However, in a recent paper, Y. Aharonov and M. Verdi describe
that under specific conditions,
".., if one checks by continuous observation if a given
quantum system evolves from some initial state, to some
other final state, along a specific trajectory in Hilbert
space, the result is always positive, whether or not the
system would have done so on its own accord."66
Aharonov's and Verdi's reference to "continuous observation" is a critical
point in the paper. They note that to enforce a change of state by con-
tinuous observation, the time between successive measurements is many
orders of magnitude smaller than is presently possible for real measuring
devices. Furthermore, it is a long way from a highly speculative con-
sideration about the nature of a quantum system to a physical explanation
for a given experiment. We are not claiming that remote perturbation is
the correct or only mechanism for what we have observed in this experiment,
but rather that it may have some merit in terms of developing theories in
physics.
(U) A second possible mechanism, which was mentioned in Schmidt
entails some form of psychoenergetic data selection (PDS). In this mode
of operation, the subject scans the unperturbed binary sequence ahead in
time and selects the proper time. to initiate the trial. This strategy
enables him to take advantage of an unperturbed, yet significantly
deviant subsequence and achieve a success for that trial. At first
thought, this idea also seems inconsistent with current thinking in
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(U)
physics because it involves obtaining information about a future state of
a random system with virtually an infinite number of possible future
states available..
(U) Many physicists have speculated upon the time-reversed information
flow for quantum systems, but the most detailed discussion has been
presented by 0. Costa de Beauregard5s,6'~. He shows, by using strict
covariant formalism, that advanced probability waves can carry information
from some future state of a system backward in time to the present.
De Beauregard concludes:
"... what would the phenomenology of advanced waves, decreasing
probability, blind statistical retrodiction, and information as
organizing power, look like? Exactly to what parapsychologists
call precognition and/or psychokinesis. Logically these
phenomena should show up, no less than thermodynamical pro-
gressing fluctuations--which indeed they are.r67*
Within the physics community the concept of gaining information from
future events may not be inconsistent with current ideas of quantum physics.
Even if such physics speculations of de Beauregard should prove to be true,
there are many unanswered questions: how does the subject "receive" such
information and in what manner does this information reach the subject's
conscious awareness? We must emphasize here that de Beauregard's hypothesis
should not be regarded as proof of mechanism, but only as interesting
speculation.
(U) In our experiment, it was premature to attempt to determine what
mechanism was involved. The first part of the objective simply entailed
the verification of the existence of the phenomenon under nearly ideal
conditions. Since this objective was met, future work in the area should
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(U)
focus attention in differentiating between these two possible mechanisms
and in searching for others.
(S) The second part of the program objective was to determine how
the RP phenomenon might be utilized for Army-designated applications. A
particular application potential depends on the type of RP mechanism,
and the degree to which Army personnel can be trained to use that mechanism.
Figure 4 shows a number of possible application areas that might be con-
sidered under each of the two main hypotheses described above.
PSYCHOENERGETIC
DATA SELECTION
WAR GAMES
(MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION)
OTHER SYSTEMS
WEAPONS
FIRE
CONTROL
REMOTE
PERTURBATION
GUI DANCE
SYSTEMS
RV
INTRUSION
DETECTION
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ftr am V1W 5%
(S) If the phenomenon is mediated by PDS then any situation that
entails human-initiated events in random or pseudo-random environments
can be considered. We have shown two such possibilities in Figure 4.
- (S) In those situations that involve weapons fire control, an
individual is responsible for either the actual firing of the weapon, or
for the initialization of an automatic fire-control sequence. Trained
personnel could significantly increase the kill probability of the par-
ticular weapons system by "psychoenergetically selecting" the optimum
time to initiate the fire sequence. A PDS ability would be particularly
valuable for antiaircraft personnel in a combat situation.
(S) Because PDS does not require some form of physical interaction,
it is possible to consider pseudo-random environments, as well. Thus,
as shown in Figure 4, any Monte Carlo simulation situation such as war
games, must be considered as susceptible to PDS. For example, in assessing
strategies by war game techniques, pseudorandom algorithms are consulted
to assess weapons performance. If PDS is the mechanism that predominates
in RP interactions, it is possible that an operator might bias the re-
sults toward a favored strategy by PDS, leading to a misassessment of its
effectiveness.
(S) If the phenomenon is mediated by genuine remote perturbation
interactions, and systems other than electrical random number generators
can be influenced, a different category of applications must be considered.
Two such applications are indicated in Figure 4.
(S) First, there are subcomponents to guidance systems that might
be particularly sensitive to RP. For example., the electromechanical
restoring circuitry contains elements that have appeared to be influenced
by RP in quasi-laboratory experiments. If these results were confirmed
in controlled laboratory studies, even weak RP, judicially applied, could
alter a trajectory to a very significant degree.
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(S) Finally in Figure 4, we consider a remote viewing (RV) intrusion
detection system. Evidence in the parapsychology literatures8,59
has
indicated that RV phenomena are accompanied by associative RP effects.
In those experiments, assumed sensitive "detectors" (e.g, a strain gauge68)
appear to change concomitantly with RV efforts. In the experiment
described in this report, it was the subjective assessment of the three
best-scoring subjects, that at least part of the effect they were observing,
was caused by their ability to focus their attention on the actual generating
hardware. Thus, we can conceive of a multifaceted intrusion "detector"
consisting of a variety of electronic components. Some or all of those
components would have demonstrated susceptibility to RP in laboratory
situations. Considering the current ability of our own remote viewers
to penetrate secure facilities, we feel that it is important to develop
such a detector system.
-qw-M,qw M,% IM
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Appendix (U)
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Appendix (U)
(U) This Appendix chronologically displays a collection of the random
number generator (RNG) experiments published during the past ten years
in the three major U.S. parapsychological journals: Research in Para-
psychology, The Journal of Parapsychology, and The Journal of the American
Society for Psychical Research.
(U) In most cases a single reference contains several "separate ex-
periments." We have defined any major change in experimental protocol
or variable (e.g., a change of experimenter, type of feedback, etc.) as
a separate experiment. A numerical p value is listed in the "Statistics"
column for each experiment that is significant at the p 5 0.05 level; an
"n.s." indicates "not significant" for all others.
(U) If an experiment (or group of experiments) was published in more
than one journal, only one reference--typically the most comprehensive--is
cited in the survey.
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N
?'
M
N
N
N
N
4
~
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
cd
rl
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