SPECIAL ANALYSIS STUDY (DRAFT)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: STARGATE
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96-00788R001200110002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: November 4, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 19, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 1, 1978
• Content Type: STUDY

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Approved For *elease 2604/61? CIA'-ROP96-00788 R001200110002-6
Z JUL 78
FROM I IQ WPAFB d)I9. /TQTR
TO: SSO ACSII. DA
INFO IIQ USAF WASH DC / INA
S E C R E T
SUBJI CT: SP.,:CIAL ANALYSIS STU)Y (U)
REF''ERENC'v: ACSI M,iG,, DID 262015Z JUN 78
1.
(U)
PASS TO MAJ STONER (ACSI) : LTC M BLOOM (USAF/INYS)
2.
(C)
THIS MESSAGE IS IN RESPONSE TO COMMENTS REQUESTED IN
THE REFERENCED MESSAGE RELATING TO PARAPFIYSICS TOPICS. REPLY
HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THOSE QUES49.1 ONS RELEVANT TO FTD'S PROGRAM
WITH THE STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SRI) .
3. (5 PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE PLANS:
A. FTD 'S PREVIOUS EFFORT IN THIS AREA OF INVESTIGATION
HAS ,BEEN PREVIOUSLY SUPPLIED IN THE FY77 FINAL REPORT TITLED
ADVANCED THREAT TECHNIQUE ASSESSMENT (SRI 7-4375). A FINAL
REPORT ON RECENT WORK WILL BE AVAILABLE BY THE END OF JULY AND
WILL BE PROVIDED AT THAT TIME.
B. PT PRESE NT, FTD PLANS TO PURSUE THOSE BASIC OBJECTIVES
OUTLINEu III THE REFERENDED WORK STATEMENT (PARA ` - ) MAIN
ORIENTATION IS TO EVALUATE OR SIMULATE USSR RESEARCH ACHIEVEMENTS
(OR CLAIMS)-, AND TO EXAMINE FEASIBILITY OF COMMUNICATION AND
REMOTE VIEWItIG POTENT AL. 'THERE IS NO INTENT IN~ THE FTD PROGRAM
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TO PURSUE RESEARCI NOR TO ATTEMPT DEVELOP-
MENT OF SP"'CIFIC APPLICATIONS. FTD'S CURRENT CONTRACT WITH THE
STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE EXTENDS THROUGH MAY 1979.
C. FTD HAS SUPPORTED THESE BASIC INVESTIGATIONS WITH
THE STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SRI) SINCE 7976. SRI'S WORK
TO DATE HAS GREATLY BENEFITED FTD'S ASSESSMENT OF WARSAW PACT
RESEARCH IN THIS AREA, BOTH IN EVALUATING ASPECTS OF FOREIGN
RESEARCH DATA, AND IN PROVIDING INSIGHT INTO THIS FIELD IN
GENERAL. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLEAR NEED FOR FTD TO CONTINUE SUCH
SUPPORT TO SRI IN THE FUTURES HOWEVER FTD MAY ELECT TO SUPPORT
OTHER ASPECTS OF PARAPHYSICS INVESTIGATIONS WITH OTHER LABORATORIES.
SUCH SUPPORT COULD POTENTIALLY BE e'O EVALUATE ENERGETICS-TYPE t4
DICE AND RELATED PHYSIOLOGICAL ISSUES ',FF
ECT CF MAGNETIC
FIELD~) OR LOW FREQUENCY FIELDS, ETC.) WHERE ASSISTANCE IN,
EVALUATING THE USSR RESEARCH WOULD BE REQUIRED.
4. (S) WORK STATEMENT: FTD'S WORK STATEMENT TO SRI, TITLED
"ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT, IS SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS:
A. PURPOSE:
B. BACKGROUND:
C. ANALYTICAL APPROACH :
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 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 i.CIA-RDP96-00788 R001200110002-6
Xi~ICIT "A"
Purchase $'equest N
Advanced"'Tc,, hnoloc Assessment
i-.e (U) ' TT[[::
(S.) PURPOSE:
r - - _
To provide a basis for assessing application potential of an advanced
technology that is assessed to be under development in the USSR. This
study would assist in FTD's evaluation of relevent intelligenc data, would
help identify key development trends and technical parameters, and would
help in assessing feasibility of particular advanced threat related
applications. +
- :O (5) BACK[ ROUND:
A cont':auirg technical intelligence responsibility for FTD is to
provide intcllieence consumers, and US RID consumers, .with the highest
quality asscssr:l~nt of USSR capabilities in various threat areas, especially
in advanced technologies that could eventually lead to future technological
surprise. These potential threats could be based on conventional techno-
logy with unique applications, or on totally new or noval techniques ti,at
could be at the frontiers of technological art-state. This study would
fill a critical gap in the understanding and assessment of application
feasibility of a potential advanced th"eat. This effort would directly
support FTD's continuing evaluatic? for a new DIA threat study (Paraphysics
R/0-1arsaw Pact), and would support certain advanced communication and
advancer sensor assessments in general,
tom. w-4~; (5) ANALYTICAL APHOACH:
(.~ 4.1 The contractor will develop theoretical models, perform appronri r to
}technical analysis, and provide capability assessments based on appropriate
investigaticn and experic;,ental procedures.
CO 4.2 Contractor assessments will emphasize the particular advanced para
physics technology having military potential. The assessr:,ent will examine
numerous-variables that have an influence on biases, reliability and accuracy.
Basic investigations in this general topic will address advanced communica-
tion potential , and advanced remote sensor potential . The contractor shall
develop an ap;)ropriate theoretical basis that provides insight on possible
countermeasures. Theroetical investigations shall be directed toward resolu-
tion of probable !zarap!iy cs transmission nodes. In;'estioz Lions involving use
of shielded facilities should assist in evaluating electror,,-magnetic aspects
(e.g., in the ELF region). Other investigations based on holographic models
shall also be considered.
2-3
121-L LI-e. I,
C,
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Study findings that indicate feasibility of various potential
applications, or that provide insight into theoretical models should be
made available to FTD or soon as possitle. Evaluation of results from applica-
tion investigations trill be performed by HD according to mutually acceptable
protocol and ;ill he included as part of the final report. The contractor will
also develop appropriate statistical methods for assssinq degree of success
of such experimental invests ations. These methodologies would also be
applicable to assessing similar investiitions reported in the foreign literature.
fl' 4.4 All significant. details of contractor stud, scope, planning, proposed
analyses technique, proposed evaluation protocol and procedures, and personnel
involved will be evaluated by FTD. Should any unforeseen deviation occur, FTD
will be notified immediately. Ch,aarges in t-cork priority may be directed by FTD
at any time during the contractual year should such action be considered
necessary. Additional details on study objectives, procedures, and other
details ai'e included in aoseparate detailed task work statement.
O -CLEARAHiCE U I REMEUTS :
5.2 torage Capabili y: 1Secret.,
5.1 Fer nne : Top S cr t.
REPO1 'S REQLJIRED:
Draft co of study.
Final rep rt. SGIJ
7.Q Frrciliilac. ti R:
r-, r - f
ti 1
6.2 Pr'elirtin ry draft of study.
6.1 Outline 10f propo ad study.
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5. (S) IN-HOUSE RESEARCH
A. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL ADVANTAGES TO PURSUING IN-HOUSE
RESEARCH, DEPENDING ON ITS SPECIFIC OqJJNTAT[ ON . IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE SOMt CJVERNME:?0' 11[&Jts E ~iJtl'~I[?;f`i' 41tC'-L LS
APPROPRIATE FOR EVALUATING AND IDEN'T'IFYING PHYSIOLOGICAL
^u''2
"r,~atd4
AFUNCTIONING; OR THAT SOME FACILITAES HAVE EQUIPMENT SUITABLE
FOR RESOLVING (IN PART) CERTAIN THEORETICAL ISSUES. LABORATORIES
WITH EEC EQUIPMENT (OR OTHER PHYSICLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS) AND.
ELECTROMAGNET:,:CALI,Y SHIELDED ROOMS, COULD POTENTIALLY ASSIST
IN RESEARCH ON SOME ISSUES. IN ADDITION, LABORATORIES WITH
SIMILAR EQUIPMENT MIGHT EXIST IN THE VARIOUS SERVICES, WHICH
COULD FACILITATE EXPERIMENTS WHERE INFLUENCE OF DISTANCE IS TO BE
EXAMINED. THERE ARE NUMEROUS POSSIBILITIES; THESE ARE BUT A
FEW EXAMPLES.
B. ANOTHER ADVANTAGE OF IN-HOUSE RESEARCI; WOULD BE IN
PURSUIT OF PARTICULAR APPLICATIONS AND IN SELECTION OF SUBJECTS,
IT MAY BE THAT PEOPLE WHO CAN PERFORM WELL IN CERTAIN PSYCHOENERGETIC
TASKS (SUBJECTS) ARE ALREADY EMPLOYED WITHIN GOVERNMENT FACILITIES. % DRAWING ON SUCH AVAILABLE RESOURCES COULD SIMPLIFY SUBJECT
RECRUITMENT AND ALSO ENHANCE SECURITY ASPECTS, ESPECIALLY IF THE
SUBJECTS HAVE SOME LEVEL OF CLEARANCE.
C. IN ADDITION, PURSUP OF CERTAIN TYPES OF APPLICATIONS MIG'""
1 '
BEST BE PERFORMED IN-HOUSE BY A GOVERNMENT AGENCY. COMMUNICAT':"'
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MODES, FOR EXAMPLE, MAY REQUIRE A COMMITTMENT WHERE THE SAME
SUBJECTS WORK TOGETHER. FOR A LONG' TIME PERIOD. ALSO, CERTAIN
APPLICATIONS, INVOLVING INFORMA':CION ACCESS APPLICATIONS,
ALSO APPEAR TO REQUIRE A LONG-1'?RM COMMITTMENT. THIS MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO AQIEVE (AND CON".ROL) VIA EXTERNAL SOURCES.
D. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SENSATIONAL NATURE OF THIS AREA
OF RESEARCH THERE ARE A1JSO SOME DISADVANTAGES* CONSIDERABLE EFFORT
WOULD BE REQUIRED IN KEEPING EVEN THE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT POTENTIAL
IN-HOUSE ACTIVITY UNDER TIGHT CONTROL. THIS'WOULD ALSO BE
TRUE FOR ANY EXTENSIVE EXTERNAL RESEARCH. ONE APPROACH MIGHT BE
TO OPENLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOME :JF THIS RESEARCH IS BEING
PURSUED. THIS RESEARCH COULD CERTAINLY BE QUALIFIED AND PRESENTED
Af
IN THE CONTEXT JEXPLOTATORY OR BASIC RESEARCH AND IN TIME ITS
A tv)
SENSATIONAL TREATMENT WOULD VERY LIKELY LESSEN.
E. IN SUMMATION, IT APPEARS ASPECTS OF THIS RESEARCH MIGHT BE
AMEANABLE FOR IN-HOUSE INVESTIGATIONS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A
JOINT-SERVICE OR DOD-WIDE EFFORT COULD BE ULTIMATELY INVOLVED.
6. (S) PROPOSED RESEARCH APPROACH
A. PARTICULAR RESEARCH APPRUCHES IN PSYCHOENERGETICS WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE MAIN OBJECTIVES. THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE BASIC
RESEARCH DIRECTIONS; THAT WHICH PURSUES APPLICATIONS; THAT DIRECTED
TOWARD UNDERSTANDING OF THIS PHYSICAL BASIS FOR THE PHENOMENA; AND
THAT ORIENTED TOWARD PHYSIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES. ALL
THESE OVE.ILAP, HOWEVER, AND CANNOT BE READILY SEPARATED. RES'
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OF THEORETICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES COULD ENHANCE APPLICATION
(I.E., IMPROVE RELIABILITY, REPEATABILITY) ; PURSUIT OF` SPECIFIC
APPLICATIONS COULD ALSO ADD INSIGHT ON SOME THEORETICAL ISSUES,
t1~, IT MAY BE A WIDE VARIETY OF EXPERIMENTS NEED TO BE
CONDUCTED IN ORDER TO EXAMINE AS MANY VARIABLES AS POSSIBLE. IT
ALSO APPEARS BOTH THE INFORMATIONAL ASPECTS AND THE ENERGETIC
ASPECTS BE PURSUED, SINCE THE UNDERLYING PRINCIILES MAY BE
THE SAME FOR BOTH TYPES OF PHENOMENA.
B. REGARDLESS OF &3MM RESEARCH DIRECTIONS, SPECIFIC
RESEARCH SHOULD BE BASED ON SOUND SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGIES.
-APPROPRIATE EVALAUTION METHODS ARE ALSO REQUIRED SO
THAT RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH CAN BE EVALUATED
PROPERLY',
C. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PEQUIREMENT OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO
ESTABLISHAAPOOL OF SUBJECTS THAT ARE CONSISTANT HIGH PERFORMERS AT
A VARIETY OF PARANO IAL TASKS, OTHERWISE, MOST EXPERIMENTS WOULD
YIELD RESULTS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN CHANCE, AND UNDERLYING
PRINCIPLES COULD NOT BE IDENTIFIED. WITH HIGH PERFORMING SUBJECTS,
EFFECTS CF MANY TEST VARIABLES (PHYSICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, ETC)
COULD BE STUDIE. IN A CONSISTANT MANNER. METHODS FOR TRAINING AND
ENHANCING PERFORMANCE SHOULD ALSO BE INVESTIACTED SINCE THIS S N
LEAD TO BETTER U11ff "X.STA!(f)LW OF TO
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D. THERE ARE MANY THEORETICAL ISSUES THAT COULD BE EXAMINED,
AND NUMEROUS EXPERIMENTS COITLD BE CONDUCTED THAT MIGHT INDICATE
THE PHYSICAL BASIS OF THIS PHENOMENA. EXPERIMENTS FOR RESOLVING 4
THE PHENOMENA IS ELECTORMAGNETIC IN NATURE COULD INVOLVE
SUBMARINE OR SPACE PLATFORMS, OR EXPERIMENTS CONDUCTED IN PRESENCE
OF APPROPRIATE NOISE. EXPERIMENTS TO DETERMINE HOW SMALL
TARGETS CAN BE ALSO IMPAC' ON THE ELECTROMAGNETICS ISSUE(DATA
RATE OR RESOLUTION)